YouGov Indigenous voice poll: yes 46, no 30 in NSW (open thread)

A new poll finds plurality but not majority support for a yes vote on the Indigenous voice, with many undecided.

Today’s Daily Telegraph has a YouGov poll showing 46% support for a yes vote in a referendum on an indigenous voice compared with 30% for no, with 24% undecided. Support was at 61% among Labor voters, 31% among Coalition voters and 72% among the small sample of Greens voters. Sixty-eight per cent rated that the government had done a poor job of explaining how the voice would work, with no detail provided on other responses. The poll was conducted online “last week” from a sample of 1069. UPDATE: The poll was limited to New South Wales.

Other than that, the only bit of recent polling I’m aware of is the return of Roy Morgan’s weekly update video and its regular serving of thin gruel on federal voting intention. This records Labor’s two-party lead at 59.5-40.5, out from 58.5-41.5 before the summer break, and a notably wide gap from a series that had found Labor with relatively modest leads for much of last year.


• Following the death on Tuesday of New South Wales Liberal Senator Jim Molan, reports suggest the front-runner to succeed him is fellow conservative Dallas McInerney, chief executive of Catholic Schools NSW. However, Max Maddison of The Australian reports some moderates believe the faction should try to poach the seat for one of their own, the chief contenders being defeated Wentworth MP Dave Sharma, unsuccessful Gilmore candidate Andrew Constance and thwarted Warringah preselection hopeful Jane Buncle. Tony Abbott has ruled out a suggestion by former Victorian state party president Michael Kroger that the position should go to him, although Dennis Shanahan of The Australian today reports that would be open to a lower house seat if it had “overwhelming support” in the party.

Matthew Knott of the Sydney Morning Herald reported on Thursday that moderates were urging Marise Payne to create a second New South Wales Senate vacancy by retiring shortly after the March state election, potentially to be succeeded by Fiona Martin, who lost her seat of Reid at the federal election last year; Gisele Kapterian, former staffer to Julie Bishop and Michaelia Cash; or Maria Kovacic, state party president and unsuccessful federal candidate for Parramatta. Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reported today that Payne has “told colleagues she does not intend to retire”.

Lydia Lynch of The Australian reported yesterday on a “push within Queensland’s Liberal National Party to bring former Senator Amanda Stoker back into the fold”, with the suggestion that she might topple lower-profile incumbent Paul Scarr to gain the top position on the Senate ticket at the next election. With the second place on the ticket reserved for the Nationals, and no suggestion in the report that a position might become available in the lower house, the only other possibility would be for her to again take third place. This was a losing proposition for her at last year’s election and would also require her to depose an incumbent, in this case ideological fringe dweller Gerard Rennick.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,161 comments on “YouGov Indigenous voice poll: yes 46, no 30 in NSW (open thread)”

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  1. Been There
    What’s wrong with that?

    You have just defined the true purpose of The Voice.

    Well done you!
    What’s wrong with that is it builds expectation that might not be deliverable.

  2. Eston Kohver says:
    Thursday, January 26, 2023 at 12:35 am

    An interesting poll of 1600 Russians on attitudes and opinions about former Soviet-occupied states

    1. Any Russian “poll’ should be taken with a grain of salt
    2. Whatever the basis of any Russian feelings of concern about the Baltic states, the Baltic states have more than enough reason to be concerned about Russia
    3. Viewing states’ decisions to join NATO as a surrendering of independence is simply laughable

    Putin’s Russian Voter Moronisation Project is certainly going well.

  3. “poroti says:
    Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 10:18 pm
    Yaaay, we vote for the Voice , we feel a warm inner glow from it showing our awesomeness……….. meanwhile you can bet your bottom dollar the lives of people living in squalor in places like Jiggalong,Warmun , Jilkminggan and a hundred other places will remain unchanged. Not that it will stop the comfy middle class of the Bludger Lounge as they regale us with tales of their travels to ‘beau monde’ places claiming the voice solves the ‘problem’.”

    All those terrible things have happened without the Voice. Will the Voice help solve anything? You can only know by voting YES!

    … Don’t bet…. VOTE YES!

  4. The Voice will be, well largely symbolic. It will have next to zero impact. Check the personages who will be on this body, the same ones who have largely been lobbying for indigenous people for the last 3o years I will bet. How will this body make their lobbying efforts any more effective? To me it is just more piss and wind. What is needed is a treaty, not more tokenism.

  5. I thought to post here rather than carry it over to the new thread.

    WeWantPaul @ Thursday, January 26, 2023 at 12:06 am

    “I could have sworn I did a long reply. But yes a very interesting and challenging article.

    My long reply distinguished what one might say here in a context where one does not expect to have any impact more than yelling into a void, but one might have a very interesting and thought provoking discussion.

    Also on the voice treaty I noted that notwithstanding my many doubts and concerned voice here, into the void, I will definitely support the voice and hope I’m wrong about almost everything in my analysis.”

    Thanks for having a read and for the considered response 🙂


    It is what it is at the moment, plenty of room around the country for improvement, though I’d prefer cosmopolitan, multi-cultural rather than white/ black

    Haves/ have nots

    As many have pointed out the Uluru Statement of the Heart seems to have some of the what, how and why

    Certainly reckon ever more self-determination is inevitable, though don’t doubt agitation for a more revolutionary approach

    Let’s see what former part of an empire will it reflect (independence, form, institutions, security, standard of living) … clearly TRC or not, treaty/ sovereignty/ reparations or not, VTP or not, all come with expectations beyond reservations/ homelands/ native title/ CtG and take/ give ….

    May be it’ll look like a Great Southern Land Union, United States and Territories of Australia, United Kingdom of GB (Scotland comes to mind)/ NI and possessions, France and Outre Mer, one Middle Kingdom three systems (nationalist DR of China/ Taiwan/ Formosa certainly faces issues), CCCP, Holy Land and occupied territories of Palestine and Transjordan …

    No matter which way, some will be disappointed

  7. C@tmommasays:
    Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 9:22 pm

    How long before The Greens fall apart completely:

    Greens Senator Lidia Thorpe has cleared the way for a split with her colleagues on the Indigenous Voice to parliament in a formal deal in the party room on Wednesday that gives her free rein to vote against the proposal while others give it their support.

    The agreement is almost certain to lead to a divided Greens position on the crucial question in a referendum at the end of this year unless Thorpe gains an assurance from the federal government that Indigenous sovereignty will be guaranteed as part of the Voice.

    This is the way it should have always been.

    Now they just need a new Party spokesperson on the issue and to look at the Party’s policy position is.

  8. On 28 October 2019 the Atlantic Journal published an assessment of the Ukraine pm’s first 6 months in office

    It is a correct assessment

    He came to government with no expertise at all in international affairs and with no agenda

    He did promise peace with Russia, blaming conflict on Putin not liking his predecessor

    The article is an in depth analysis – so I would only commend the article to anyone interested

    He rode his media profile as a comedian, naming his political party after the program

    And in his corner he had media proprietors

    Defence spending was to go from 3.4% to 5% – the increase based on NATO guidelines

    Ukrainian was to be the official language – however Russian would still be allowed

    The resolution with Putin was decried on the detail (the fault of the relationship between Putin and the prior Ukrainian pm) and, the article concludes, having no chance of success because Putin was never going to agree the resolution

    Read that informed article – and look where we are today in that Region

    The Ukrainian pm was going to end the War

    A War which, no doubt, the Ukraine pm sees as his leave pass to re-election next year

    We will see

    Because he has no other agenda in government

    People tire of War

    Look at Churchill

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