Today’s Daily Telegraph has a YouGov poll showing 46% support for a yes vote in a referendum on an indigenous voice compared with 30% for no, with 24% undecided. Support was at 61% among Labor voters, 31% among Coalition voters and 72% among the small sample of Greens voters. Sixty-eight per cent rated that the government had done a poor job of explaining how the voice would work, with no detail provided on other responses. The poll was conducted online “last week” from a sample of 1069. UPDATE: The poll was limited to New South Wales.
Other than that, the only bit of recent polling I’m aware of is the return of Roy Morgan’s weekly update video and its regular serving of thin gruel on federal voting intention. This records Labor’s two-party lead at 59.5-40.5, out from 58.5-41.5 before the summer break, and a notably wide gap from a series that had found Labor with relatively modest leads for much of last year.
Also:
• Following the death on Tuesday of New South Wales Liberal Senator Jim Molan, reports suggest the front-runner to succeed him is fellow conservative Dallas McInerney, chief executive of Catholic Schools NSW. However, Max Maddison of The Australian reports some moderates believe the faction should try to poach the seat for one of their own, the chief contenders being defeated Wentworth MP Dave Sharma, unsuccessful Gilmore candidate Andrew Constance and thwarted Warringah preselection hopeful Jane Buncle. Tony Abbott has ruled out a suggestion by former Victorian state party president Michael Kroger that the position should go to him, although Dennis Shanahan of The Australian today reports that would be open to a lower house seat if it had “overwhelming support” in the party.
• Matthew Knott of the Sydney Morning Herald reported on Thursday that moderates were urging Marise Payne to create a second New South Wales Senate vacancy by retiring shortly after the March state election, potentially to be succeeded by Fiona Martin, who lost her seat of Reid at the federal election last year; Gisele Kapterian, former staffer to Julie Bishop and Michaelia Cash; or Maria Kovacic, state party president and unsuccessful federal candidate for Parramatta. Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reported today that Payne has “told colleagues she does not intend to retire”.
• Lydia Lynch of The Australian reported yesterday on a “push within Queensland’s Liberal National Party to bring former Senator Amanda Stoker back into the fold”, with the suggestion that she might topple lower-profile incumbent Paul Scarr to gain the top position on the Senate ticket at the next election. With the second place on the ticket reserved for the Nationals, and no suggestion in the report that a position might become available in the lower house, the only other possibility would be for her to again take third place. This was a losing proposition for her at last year’s election and would also require her to depose an incumbent, in this case ideological fringe dweller Gerard Rennick.
Griff:
Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 10:07 pm
[‘Is Howard advising?’]
Probably but I think most have moved on from his era of subterfege.
WeWantPaul @ Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 10:13 pm
““I would welcome your thoughts on the essay on progressive idealism, the link to which I posted.”
I think I missed that, you don’t mean the Marcus Stewart article do you?”
Here you go: https://www.vox.com/2016/8/4/12376522/political-idealism-enemy
It is something I grapple with myself. So much easier to say “I am right and you are wRONg!” 🙂
Yaaay, we vote for the Voice , we feel a warm inner glow from it showing our awesomeness……….. meanwhile you can bet your bottom dollar the lives of people living in squalor in places like Jiggalong,Warmun , Jilkminggan and a hundred other places will remain unchanged. Not that it will stop the comfy middle class of the Bludger Lounge as they regale us with tales of their travels to ‘beau monde’ places claiming the voice solves the ‘problem’.
Mavis @ Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 10:14 pm
“Griff:
Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 10:07 pm
[‘Is Howard advising?’]
Probably but I think most have moved on from his era of subterfege.”
I would like to think that we progress, but I am concerned that society has entered a post-post-modern situation. Post-modernism requires information. With the noise floor rising, we have a situation where we mistrust information and enter a new state of existence that is not necessarily better. I wonder what AI/pseudo-AI shall do.
Edit: the extra ‘q’ might mean something. It might not 😉
Upnorth says:
Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 10:13 pm
Also Happy 21st Birthday C@t!
====================++++==================
Given it will be a late night you are also excused from Darwin Patrol C@t!
If indeed the voice referendum fails, we will have confirmed our status as world class racists. Whatever justification individuals may use, that is the way the rest of the
world will see it. We are already seen as racists around the world.
Frankly, I think we have grown up. And the referendum will get up.
There was a genocide in this country. We need to admit it. Acknowledge it and make amends. The Voice would be a good start.
White man, white law, white gun.
As a declared active Greens member, I will vote yes, but you know, Lydia has a right to personally oppose it if she wants to. Who am I to tell her otherwise.
Enough Already
Thanks great news that Leopards to Ukraine from Germany is official. This part of the news is even more important than initial numbers IMO.
“ The goal was to quickly establish two battalions with Leopard 2 tanks for Ukraine, Reuters reports the statement said, adding Germany would in a first step provide 14 Leopard 2 tanks from military stocks. Training of Ukrainian troops in Germany will begin soon, and Germany will also provide logistics and ammunition, it said.”
So the 14 is just a first step and they are fully committing to training, logistics and ammunition. This is a serious capability. Two battalions is 88 Leopard 2s. Extended pro rata to 12 other countries with at least another 500 Leopards between them and this would see Ukraine with 300+ Leopard 2s and a significant offensive capability.
poroti:
Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 10:18 pm
That’s a bit tough. Most on this site are emphatic. Please enumerate your solution to a seemingly intractable problem.
It seems no coincidence that c@t says she was at an important campaign event the night NSW Labor installs an emergency pick into its upper house ticket. Power broking in real time. Right here on PB. Great stuff.
wranslide says:
Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 10:26 pm
It seems no coincidence that c@t says she was at an important campaign event the night NSW Labor installs an emergency pick into its upper house ticket. Power broking in real time. Right here on PB. Great stuff.
中华人民共和国
The Honourable C@t MLC????
Shellbell
Sydney Thunder, the team that got out for 15 runs in one match this season, reached Big bash finals with their heart in their mouth. 🙂
wranslide:
Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 10:26 pm
Please get off Cat’s back. You’ve obviously been offended but your posts reek of payback – implied & express.
Minns was Bob Who’s ‘captain’s pick’, so it’s only fair that Minns returns the favour now … I guess.
Party rules. Party democracy. meritocracy.
Who needs an any of those when The Who is in the house.
”
porotisays:
Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 10:18 pm
Yaaay, we vote for the Voice , we feel a warm inner glow from it showing our awesomeness……….. meanwhile you can bet your bottom dollar the lives of people living in squalor in places like Jiggalong,Warmun , Jilkminggan and a hundred other places will remain unchanged. Not that it will stop the comfy middle class of the Bludger Lounge as they regale us with tales of their travels to ‘beau monde’ places claiming the voice solves the ‘problem’.
”
That hurts poroti and that is bit unfair.
Socrates @ Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 10:25 pm:
“So the 14 is just a first step and they are fully committing to training, logistics and ammunition. This is a serious capability. Two battalions is 88 Leopard 2s.”
===============
Yes. Plus the other countries’ Leopards as you mention, plus likely M1 Abrams later this year, in “significant numbers”.(https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/24/u-s-approving-abrams-tanks-ukraine-00079218)
This is a very, very bad news day for Russia.
Thank you Mavis.
How did Bob get into the GS seat in the first place A_E. Obviously well beyond him.
Ven @ #1985 Wednesday, January 25th, 2023 – 10:33 pm
Yeah. How freaking cynical.
Vote ‘No’ then, poroti. 😐
Mavis @ #1983 Wednesday, January 25th, 2023 – 10:32 pm
He’s gutless, Mavis. I don’t know how many times I’ve said that I have him blocked, so the little worm just insults me behind my back.
So, what was it this time? A criticism of my efforts to get more Labor MPs into NSW State Parliament?
I’d like to know what he’s doing? Sfa is my guess.
mabwm: “As a declared active Greens member, I will vote yes, but you know, Lydia has a right to personally oppose it if she wants to. Who am I to tell her otherwise.”
If she isn’t going to represent the party, she shouldn’t be in the party. Who are you to tell her otherwise? A member of the greens. Otherwise the greens posturing about the policy positions of every other party mean nothing.
Upnorth @ #2110 Wednesday, January 25th, 2023 – 10:29 pm
WTH!?! I was at our local branch meeting with our candidate tonight. Tomorrow I will be letterboxing for him. Some powerbroker. Though I imagine I have given wranslide an opening now to go back to calling me an insignificant ‘Branchie’. 🙄
Poroti: ” claiming the voice solves the ‘problem’.”
You should acquaint yourself with the Uluru Statement.
https://fromtheheart.com.au/explore-the-uluru-statement/
mabwm: “As a declared active Greens member, I will vote yes, but you know, Lydia has a right to personally oppose it if she wants to. Who am I to tell her otherwise.”
What is your position?
Do you support The Voice that will lead to the Treaty?
Pi says:
Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 10:51 pm
mabwm: “As a declared active Greens member, I will vote yes, but you know, Lydia has a right to personally oppose it if she wants to. Who am I to tell her otherwise.”
If she isn’t going to represent the party, she shouldn’t be in the party. Who are you to tell her otherwise? A member of the greens. Otherwise the greens posturing about the policy positions of every other party mean nothing.
____________
After all the “Labor musts” and “challenges for Albo/Labor”, it is time to commence a “Greens must” list…
Greens must have a unified position on the Voice.
(Achieving this, BTW, constitutes the first in the “challenges for Bandt” list…)
MABWMsays:
Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 10:25 pm
…. As a declared active Greens member, I will vote yes, but you know, Lydia has a right to personally oppose it if she wants to. Who am I to tell her otherwise. …….
********
A declared active Greens member. That’s how political parties – those that aren’t just personality cults – work.
(I’m also in total agreement with the rest of your post. Good luck in influencing your chosen representatives.)
Ven
Smith aside, it look a like the T2o is playing test batsman out of form
One final point on AUKUS subs I forgot to mention this morning is cost. Its a lot. My estimate of the construction cost for RAN SSN options is:
8 x Suffren = $80 billion NPV
8 x SSNR = $146 billion NPV
8 x SSNX = $205 billion NPV
So the SSNR cost is not as bad as the SSNX but still far more costly than the Barracuda.
pi, I don’t agree with her position, but she is free to hold it. Who am I, as a middle aged balding white man to tell Lydia Thorpe what her position should be? Just a tad paternalistic.
That’s how we got ourselves into this mess in the first place.
I’ll be voting yes. I suspect in the end, she will too. Time will tell.
Frankly I think she is playing in to the hands of Dutton and co. They need her On That wall, they want her on that wall!
AUKUS is silly. JAKUS is even worse. Scrap AUKUS. Dont start JAKUS. I dont understand the technicals on the subs like A_E and Socrates but it sounds to me its a dud deal and we should not rely on another country to operate em.
THE key reform which saw Bob Who elevated to the position of Gen.Secretary was the five year rule precluding the paid party officers from standing for elected public office for a period of 5 years. This was a condition precident for the acceptance of nanva. Trashed.
The key reform from the rolling party omnishables – which consumed the state branch and infected the federal party to the extent that it killed off the careers of Labor PMs – was party wide elections for parliamentary leader. Trashed.
I never voted for either of these roosters. I never even got the chance to vote for people who then voted for them. No one did. No one.
Minns and Nanva: two peas in a pod. Both of them are merely political staffer class detritus from the late and terminal stage of the last state government. Minns was even Tripoli’s head office bum boy when Tripodi was running the disputes and credentials committee of the party and he learnt everything he knows of politics from Joe’s knee. …
And C@t thinks I have some personal agenda. I barely know either, but I know that both have made a mockery of Labor and the attempts to pick up the pieces and rebuild the party after 2011.
Mawbm: “paternalistic”
That is the people who oppose the drafters of the Uluru Statement. It is telling them that their opinions mean nothing. The voice is one of the few times in oz history where white fellas get to stand behind our FN people and listen to what they ask of us.
it ws disapointing the way minns was appointed how ever who else could have replaced asfour a union oficial we need to give credit for minns moving against nick lalich in cabramatter when of the last links to tripodie in nsw parliament somthing the former nsw general secretary failed to do when his close friend and numbers man Walt secord was in trouble minns put the party first and called on him to resign if the party does want to clear out the mps in the old goverment michael daley would be the first mp to resign dont see whiy he is runing again
he was a senyor minister opposition leader he needs to step aside for fresh tallint at least with lallich gone from cabramata there is no link to the bad old days in nsw labor the five year rule was silly any way perhaps moslemaines exset is also good mins desiding to get rid of secord desbite being close friends shows hill be a good nsw premier mean while stuart ayres and liberal mp acused of bulying recontest
Your brain is broke Aaron: the last link to Tripodi in the party is … Minns.
adam searle is gone he was probaly labors best upper house mp but henow its probaly john graham or houssos he can go back to being ah highly payed barister michael daley was a mp back in 2011 infact a former nsw minister maybi searle being his closist friend did not help him daley is a nice guy seems friendly but he needs to retire is he not bad of labors bad old days
okay wonder what daley will get in minns government he stephin lawence would make a good aterney general also hope counghtney housoss gets a senyor portfoleo she has dun great work in upper house along with rose jackson
Margaret Reynolds AC
Norman Swan AM proving if you hang around long enough good things can happen.
Aaron
You would be a better AG than Michael Daley.
My dear great-nephew’s visiting. He asked for some funky music, so I suggested this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zVHLzFKA9NI
Hate to agree with Poroti on this but i hold serious doubt that the voice will make any different on the ground but will be delighted to be proven wrong.
Long way to go before Labor wins in NSW. Its a really hard election to win.
Mexican
Why do you have serious doubts The Voice will make any difference?
Elaborate and link your serious doubt please.
Mexican
Why do you have serious doubts The Voice will make any difference?
Elaborate and link your serious doubt please.
“Here you go: https://www.vox.com/2016/8/4/12376522/political-idealism-enemy
It is something I grapple with myself. So much easier to say “I am right and you are wRONg!” ”
I could have sworn I did a long reply. But yes a very interesting and challenging article.
My long reply distinguished what one might say here in a context where one does not expect to have any impact more than yelling into a void, but one might have a very interesting and thought provoking discussion.
Also on the voice treaty I noted that notwithstanding my many doubts and concerned voice here, into the void, I will definitely support the voice and hope I’m wrong about almost everything in my analysis.
Dearest great nephew decided to repair his room. I cant tkink why when this gem was further offered:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zVHLzFKA9NI
Been There says:
Thursday, January 26, 2023 at 12:05 am
Mexican
Why do you have serious doubts The Voice will make any difference?
Elaborate and link your serious doubt please.
————————————-
Its only an advisory body to advise government and that leaves its effectiveness up to the government of the day.
Is there a point you are trying to make Mavis? Do you want us to listen or perhaps offer a view about whether great nephew should do more housework?
wranslide:
Thursday, January 26, 2023 at 12:13 am
[‘Is there a point you are trying to make Mavis? Do you want us to listen or perhaps offer a view about whether great nephew should do more housework?’]
All I’d like you to do is stop being a pain in the arse!
Was Dame Joan still alive when that was filmed?
“It’s only an advisory body to advise government and that leaves its effectiveness up to the government of the day.”
Okay, thanks for your thoughts.
What’s wrong with that?
You have just defined the true purpose of The Voice.
Well done you!