Today’s Daily Telegraph has a YouGov poll showing 46% support for a yes vote in a referendum on an indigenous voice compared with 30% for no, with 24% undecided. Support was at 61% among Labor voters, 31% among Coalition voters and 72% among the small sample of Greens voters. Sixty-eight per cent rated that the government had done a poor job of explaining how the voice would work, with no detail provided on other responses. The poll was conducted online “last week” from a sample of 1069. UPDATE: The poll was limited to New South Wales.
Other than that, the only bit of recent polling I’m aware of is the return of Roy Morgan’s weekly update video and its regular serving of thin gruel on federal voting intention. This records Labor’s two-party lead at 59.5-40.5, out from 58.5-41.5 before the summer break, and a notably wide gap from a series that had found Labor with relatively modest leads for much of last year.
Also:
• Following the death on Tuesday of New South Wales Liberal Senator Jim Molan, reports suggest the front-runner to succeed him is fellow conservative Dallas McInerney, chief executive of Catholic Schools NSW. However, Max Maddison of The Australian reports some moderates believe the faction should try to poach the seat for one of their own, the chief contenders being defeated Wentworth MP Dave Sharma, unsuccessful Gilmore candidate Andrew Constance and thwarted Warringah preselection hopeful Jane Buncle. Tony Abbott has ruled out a suggestion by former Victorian state party president Michael Kroger that the position should go to him, although Dennis Shanahan of The Australian today reports that would be open to a lower house seat if it had “overwhelming support” in the party.
• Matthew Knott of the Sydney Morning Herald reported on Thursday that moderates were urging Marise Payne to create a second New South Wales Senate vacancy by retiring shortly after the March state election, potentially to be succeeded by Fiona Martin, who lost her seat of Reid at the federal election last year; Gisele Kapterian, former staffer to Julie Bishop and Michaelia Cash; or Maria Kovacic, state party president and unsuccessful federal candidate for Parramatta. Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reported today that Payne has “told colleagues she does not intend to retire”.
• Lydia Lynch of The Australian reported yesterday on a “push within Queensland’s Liberal National Party to bring former Senator Amanda Stoker back into the fold”, with the suggestion that she might topple lower-profile incumbent Paul Scarr to gain the top position on the Senate ticket at the next election. With the second place on the ticket reserved for the Nationals, and no suggestion in the report that a position might become available in the lower house, the only other possibility would be for her to again take third place. This was a losing proposition for her at last year’s election and would also require her to depose an incumbent, in this case ideological fringe dweller Gerard Rennick.
nath says:
Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 8:20 pm
Cronus says:
Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 8:04 pm
Alpo
“ I am no military expert, but I bet that a war cannot be won from the air.”
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Agree entirely, this is a truism.
_________
Calling a post a truism is not a compliment. It means that the author has added nothing of interest and shouldn’t have even bothered.
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nath you’re living proof that two people can see something yet observe the exact opposite. I’m confident Alpo took the meaning as I intended and not as you inferred.
Watch the greens stooges twist themselves in knots trying to reverse justify the inconsistency with the greens position on the voice and Thorpe’s opposition to it.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2023/jan/25/news-live-indigenous-leaders-plead-for-sustained-alice-springs-support-countdown-to-australian-of-the-year-ceremony?page=with:block-63d0c4708f08ad1139b638c1#block-63d0c4708f08ad1139b638c1
90% of greens voters support it. Their party will be crushed if it fails and they oppose it. Tick tock Bandt. Are you the greens leader? Or is Thorpe?
In regard the focus on Alice Springs, these are problems time in memorial
And not only in Alice Springs
And not only restricted to our First Nations peoples
There is an old saying referring to having nothing so having nothing to protect
These matters go back to opportunity both in education (and they do not have to be Rhodes Scholars) and vocation, so actually being in secure employment, able to invest in having a roof over your head and putting food on the table as the start point
Then social circles, so support networks
These problems outdate my lifetime
When the Queen visited Waluga Lake outside Narooma after she came to the Throne, the community saw new homes built and the community presented as it was presented
After that some maintained their homes – but others did not
Some of the younger generation did not embrace education – because education did not lead to employment (and they were obviously reluctant to leave Narooma)
And it ate away
The Elders could see it, the Federal Minister, Hand, knew
But it was an inter generational problem requiring a generation of reform, at least
Hand and the Elders did all they could, including reviewing the establishment of a manufacturing business within the community (and where I was invited to the discussions to place the parameters for a successful business from expertise and commitment to the cash to cash cycle, liquidity, Capital adequacy etc etc etc so the pristine business model)
And this experience, to me, shows why the Voice is a requirement
Without it we will be in the same position in 40 years time as we were in 40 years ago – and are still in today
I’m not inferring anything. That is literally the meaning of the word.
truism
a statement that is so obviously true that it is almost not worth saying:
https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/truism
UpNorth
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=aZlt-1twtJA
“I’m not inferring anything. That is literally the meaning of the word.”
There was your mistake you are supposed to give it your own meaning, it is the thing on PB.
zoomster @ #1898 Wednesday, January 25th, 2023 – 8:15 pm
Has Adam Bandt spoken up yet? Normally he is very, very vocal about Australia Day.
“Has Adam Bandt spoken up yet? Normally he is very, very vocal about Australia Day.”
Don’t most people agree with him now. Surely he is allowed to move onto his next crusade.
HAPPY 45th BIRTHDAY,
PRESIDENT VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY!
Let’s hope Chancellor Scholz and President Biden each have something extra special in mind for you!
I think you should have used maxim instead of truism. Anyway.
Enough Already @ #1930 Wednesday, January 25th, 2023 – 9:18 pm
Are you kidding me!?! It’s his birthday today!?!
It’s my birthday too! 😯
How long before The Greens fall apart completely:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/lidia-thorpe-given-free-rein-to-vote-against-voice-but-greens-likely-to-back-it-20230125-p5cfek.html
What’s the point of The Greens anymore?
C@tmomma @ Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 9:20 pm:
“ Are you kidding me!?! It’s his birthday today!?!
It’s my birthday too! ”
============
Happy Birthday, C@tmomma! And I kid you not.
Bennelong Lurker @ Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 7:22 pm
Excellent! Was the ode to the haggis recited? 🙂
C@tmomma @ Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 9:20 pm
And Robert Burns of course.
WeWantPaul says:
Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 8:57 pm
“Historian Paul Ham in “Hiroshima Nagasaki” assiduously researches the timing of events like the atomic bombings, various Japanese leadership meetings and the Soviet declaration of war on Japan and invasion of Japan’s mainland Asia colonies. He concludes that the atomic bombs were not the main cause of Japan’s surrender, fear of rapid Soviet conquests (including possible moves into the Home Islands) was.”
Interesting theory, and paints the ‘lets kill millions of civilians in the most horrible way’ decision in an ever worse light.
____________
The RAF’s first professional head was Trenchard, who believed strategic bombing alone could win a war. This dovetailed nicely with his political agenda to secure funding for a new and fully independent air force. He could hint that strategic bombing could remove the need for trench warfare which had just cost the lives of millions (in WW1) – often for seemingly little gain.
WW2 US air forces weren’t independent – the Army and Navy had air forces. Army Air Corps leaders were often big advocates for strategic bombing, for similar reasons to RAF leaders.
While the net impact of WW2 strategic bombing is controversial, it certainly did not achieve the results air force leaders promised. Germany, for example, did not surrender due to strategic bombing.
Germany and Japan were both forced to divert resources away from front line armies (and navies) to defend against strategic bombing – so the bombing harmed their war efforts: but the air force ideologues promised victory via bombing.
It is likely the European strategic bombing campaign was most effective when it was redirected away from attacking cities to targets like oil facilities and rail infrastructure. This re-targeting happened in the months leading up to D-Day, the June 6 1944 amphibious invasion of northern France. Attacking oil and transport targets directly harmed the Germans’ ability to get forces to Normandy to oppose the Allied invasion.
Air force bombing chiefs opposed the re-targeting. It didn’t fit with their “bombing will win by itself” agenda. They were wrong.
Griff @ #1937 Wednesday, January 25th, 2023 – 9:26 pm
We have a way with words. 😉
“Air force bombing chiefs opposed the re-targeting. It didn’t fit with their “bombing will win by itself” agenda. They were wrong.”
Interesting, one of my grandfathers was on those bombers.
“WeWantPaul says:
Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 9:18 pm
“Has Adam Bandt spoken up yet? Normally he is very, very vocal about Australia Day.”
Don’t most people agree with him now. Surely he is allowed to move onto his next crusade.”
Bandt’s next crusade? What next crusade? He hasn’t finished any of the previous ones yet!
But I hope that he will soon come out of his tortoise shell and declare to the world: “We, the Greens, support voting YES at the Voice referendum”…. That would be a show of very strong leadership!
Long quote here from the awesome historian of Ukraine, Timothy Snyder:
“Why does the world need a Ukrainian victory?
1. To halt atrocity. Russia’s occupation is genocidal. Wherever the Ukrainians recover territory, they save lives, and re-establish the principle that people have a right not to be tortured, deported, and murdered.
2. To preserve the international legal order. Its basis is that one country may not invade another and annex its territory, as Russia seeks to do. Russia’s war of aggression is obviously illegal, but the legal order does not defend itself.
3. To end an era of empire. This could be the last war fought on the colonial logic that another state and people do not exist. But this turning point is reached only if Russia loses.
4. To defend the peace project of the European Union. Russia’s war is not directed only against Ukraine, but against the larger idea that European states can peacefully cooperate. If empire prevails, integration fails.
5. To give the rule of law a chance in Russia. So long as Russia fights imperial wars, it is trapped in repressive domestic politics. Coming generations of Russians could live better and freer lives, but only if Russia loses this war.
6. To weaken the prestige of tyrants. In this century, the trend has been towards authoritarianism, with Putinism as a force and a model. Its defeat by a democracy reverses that trend. Fascism is about force, and it is discredited by defeat.
7. To remind us that democracy is the better system. Ukrainians have internalized the idea that they choose their own leaders. In taking risks to protect their democracy, they remind us that we all must act to protect ours.
8. To lift the threat of major war in Europe. For decades, a confrontation with the USSR and then Russia was the scenario for regional war. A Ukrainian victory removes this scenario by making another Russian offensive implausible.
9. To lift the threat of major war in Asia. In recent years, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan has been the leading scenario for a global war. A Ukrainian victory teaches Beijing that such an offensive operation is costly and likely to fail.
10. To prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons. Russia, a nuclear power, then invaded. If Ukraine loses, countries that can build nuclear weapons will feel that they need to do so to protect themselves.
11. To reduce the risk of nuclear war. A Ukrainian victory makes two major war scenarios involving nuclear powers less likely, and works against nuclear proliferation generally. Nothing would reduce the risk of nuclear war more than a Ukrainian victory.
12. To head off future resource wars. Aside from being a consistent perpetrator of war crimes, Russia’s Wagner Group seizes mineral resources by violence wherever it can. This is why it is fighting in Bakhmut.
13. To guarantee food supplies and prevent future starvation. Ukraine feeds much of the world. Russia threatens to use that food as a weapon. As one Russian propagandist put it, “starvation is our only hope.”
14. To accelerate the shift from fossil fuels. Putin shows the threat that hydrocarbon oligarchy poses to the future. His weaponization of energy supplies has accelerated the turn towards renewables. This will continue, if Russia loses.
15. To affirm the value of freedom. Even as they have every reason to define freedom as against something — Russian occupation –, Ukrainians remind us that freedom is actually for something, the right to be the people they wish to be, in a future they can help shape.”
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/11481
“He hasn’t finished any of the previous ones yet!”
The move Australia day crusade has won, the tide has turned against 26 Jan and it will wash it away in time.
WeWantPaul says:
Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 9:29 pm
“Air force bombing chiefs opposed the re-targeting. It didn’t fit with their “bombing will win by itself” agenda. They were wrong.”
Interesting, one of my grandfathers was on those bombers.
____________
To be clear (and i don’t think you’re implying anything of this sort): I am full of admiration for the courage of bomber crews. RAF Bomber Command had a hideous loss rate among crews.
It’s their leaders – particulary Harris – with whom I take issue.
Well, that article I posted a quote from tells us that The Greens’ position is … they have no united position.
“Player One says:
Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 7:52 pm
…You don’t want to progress treaty? Why not?”
The best way to progress the Treaty is to vote YES at the VOICE referendum. If “No” wins… the Treaty will never happen!
“To be clear (and i don’t think you’re implying anything of this sort): I am full of admiration for the courage of bomber crews. RAF Bomber Command had a hideous loss rate among crews.
It’s their leaders – particulary Harris – with whom I take issue.”
Apologies I was definitely not trying to imply any criticism by you, or myself of the crews.
“C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 9:34 pm
Well, that article I posted a quote from tells us that The Greens’ position is … they have no united position.”
Yes, I agree, the Greens are divided, but according to the opinion polls the vast majority of Greens voters are going to vote YES. It’s now up to the Greens Leadership to follow the lead of their supporters…. Oh, that’s a bit of a “funny” statement, but worth thinking about it….
nath says:
Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 9:20 pm
I think you should have used maxim instead of truism. Anyway.
—————————————————————————————
Or in the US, anywho.
C@tmomma:
Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 9:11 pm
Mavis @ #1910 Wednesday, January 25th, 2023 – 8:51 pm
Where’s the redoubtable Cat tonight?
[‘Sorry, Mavis, I’ve been at a meeting. We’ve got a NSW State election to win. ‘]
A valid reason. I think Minns will shit it in (forgive the French).
Enough Already:
Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 9:30 pm
My stones Mrs. Jones,
Mavis @ #1950 Wednesday, January 25th, 2023 – 9:38 pm
Our seat is one which we will only win in a landslide election. But we’re going to give it our best shot. 🙂
“The best way to progress the Treaty is to vote YES at the VOICE referendum. If “No” wins… the Treaty will never happen!”
I don’t think either will happen. We shown over and over again that we are ruthlessly racist and very happy to torture and kill based on this racism. We annually celebrate invasion day and we have a ceremony noting without much sadness or genuine concern the fact we aren’t closing the gap. It is very pathetic.
Having said that losing a vote on a pretty performative voice, might actually create the passion and political will for a meaningful treaty.
Alpo @ #1946 Wednesday, January 25th, 2023 – 9:34 pm
Some people just don’t get it. 😐
Upnorth
I hope you packed plenty of thermals, there are forecasts of below -50°C for parts of northern China.
“Some people just don’t get it. ”
Don’t you hate it when everyone won’t agree with your speculative partisan opinion. It is the worst right.
Russians KIA Jan 25: 910
Total Russians KIA: 123,080
Daily average Russians KIA: 366.3
Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/01/25/7386388/
C@t
Happy Birthday! Hope you had a lovely day.
What a great choice for Australian of the Year….her speech was spellbinding. What a sad indictment on our culture, social media, mass media etc… that our children waste their emotional and intellectual energies obsessed with body perfection.
The Age 25/01
It is two hours from opening time on the first day of Alice Springs’ new alcohol regime when Haydn Rodda, the owner of Pigglys Supermarket, emerges from the locked doors of his bottle shop following a meeting with police.
He is still unsure about what happens next and, it seems, so is the constabulary.
“No one knows what the hell’s going on.”
The new measures, announced late the previous afternoon in a hastily convened press conference with an entourage of jittery federal and territory politicians, include restricted bottle shop hours and a total takeaway booze ban on Mondays and Tuesdays.
_____________________
Jittery is a good description.
Adults in charge. Doesn’t bloody look like it.
More like rabbits caught in the headlights.
BREAKING NEWS:
“Germany confirms it will send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine
The German government has just confirmed that the decision to send 14 Leopard tanks to Ukraine was announced by Chancellor Scholz at a cabinet meeting this morning.
Germany will also approve the export of Leopards by third countries.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-64396659
🙂 🙂 🙂
“Jittery is a good description.
Adults in charge. Doesn’t bloody look like it.
More like rabbits caught in the headlights.”
Well they will be better than the racist liars in the LNP, and whatever they do it cannot be worse than the intervention of lies, based on lies, carried out in lies and hailed with lies, they might be jittery because they actually care.
Further confirmation:
“Germany will send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine and approve their re-export from partner countries, German government spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit said in a statement on Wednesday.
The goal was to quickly establish two battalions with Leopard 2 tanks for Ukraine, Reuters reports the statement said, adding Germany would in a first step provide 14 Leopard 2 tanks from military stocks. Training of Ukrainian troops in Germany will begin soon, and Germany will also provide logistics and ammunition, it said.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz is expected to address the German parliament on the issue at 12 GMT.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jan/25/russia-ukraine-war-live-us-and-germany-expected-to-reveal-tanks-deal-zelenskiy-warns-of-new-wave-of-aggression
Q; The German government has just confirmed that the decision to send 14 Leopard tanks to Ukraine
14…they sent a hundred times more than that last time!
My mother, had she still been alive, would’ve celebrated her 101 birthday on April 8. But that’s not my point: she helped to assemble Spitfires and also, as a telelophinst, transferred a call from Churchill to George VI – always proud of her war contribution albeit minimal. And my dear dad, who would’ve turned 98 tommorow, is always in our memory – me & my dear sister will visit his grave tomorrow.
WeWantPaul @ Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 9:40 pm
I would welcome your thoughts on the essay on progressive idealism, the link to which I posted.
You opt for a high risk strategy. But to consider further, while it may be high risk for society, it is a very low risk strategy for an individual to advocate.
From the US:
“BERLIN — The German government announced plans to deliver 14 of the country’s Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine and allow other countries to send theirs on Wednesday, ending months of debate among Western allies and potentially helping to shift the balance on the battlefield.
The Biden administration is also due to announce Wednesday that it will send the main U.S. battle tank, the M1 Abrams, though probably not until at least the fall, a senior U.S. official with knowledge of the situation said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/25/germany-leopard-tanks-abrams-ukraine/
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
Look at the green stooges gear themselves up for opposing the voice, because that’s what Thorpe is saying, and it’s radio silence from Bandt. The fact is, the greens party is in goose-step with the LNP opposing the Uluru Statement.
Meanwhile, 90% of greens supporters support the voice.
The sad thing is most of us on here are in furious agreement. I feel we are sharpening arguments, while being on the same side. Republic redux. Is Howard advising?
RP says:
Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 9:42 pm
Upnorth
I hope you packed plenty of thermals, there are forecasts of below -50°C for parts of northern China.
中华人民共和国
Yes. I have a permanent kit up here. Our shoes even have 9V batteries to keep our feet warm!
This has been a very cold winter in Mongolia and late snow in the South Gobi has made things interesting.
We will travel in convoy in case of breakdowns as even half an hour without heat can be fatal.
Also Happy 21st Birthday C@t!
“I would welcome your thoughts on the essay on progressive idealism, the link to which I posted.”
I think I missed that, you don’t mean the Marcus Stewart article do you?