YouGov Indigenous voice poll: yes 46, no 30 in NSW (open thread)

A new poll finds plurality but not majority support for a yes vote on the Indigenous voice, with many undecided.

Today’s Daily Telegraph has a YouGov poll showing 46% support for a yes vote in a referendum on an indigenous voice compared with 30% for no, with 24% undecided. Support was at 61% among Labor voters, 31% among Coalition voters and 72% among the small sample of Greens voters. Sixty-eight per cent rated that the government had done a poor job of explaining how the voice would work, with no detail provided on other responses. The poll was conducted online “last week” from a sample of 1069. UPDATE: The poll was limited to New South Wales.

Other than that, the only bit of recent polling I’m aware of is the return of Roy Morgan’s weekly update video and its regular serving of thin gruel on federal voting intention. This records Labor’s two-party lead at 59.5-40.5, out from 58.5-41.5 before the summer break, and a notably wide gap from a series that had found Labor with relatively modest leads for much of last year.

Also:

• Following the death on Tuesday of New South Wales Liberal Senator Jim Molan, reports suggest the front-runner to succeed him is fellow conservative Dallas McInerney, chief executive of Catholic Schools NSW. However, Max Maddison of The Australian reports some moderates believe the faction should try to poach the seat for one of their own, the chief contenders being defeated Wentworth MP Dave Sharma, unsuccessful Gilmore candidate Andrew Constance and thwarted Warringah preselection hopeful Jane Buncle. Tony Abbott has ruled out a suggestion by former Victorian state party president Michael Kroger that the position should go to him, although Dennis Shanahan of The Australian today reports that would be open to a lower house seat if it had “overwhelming support” in the party.

Matthew Knott of the Sydney Morning Herald reported on Thursday that moderates were urging Marise Payne to create a second New South Wales Senate vacancy by retiring shortly after the March state election, potentially to be succeeded by Fiona Martin, who lost her seat of Reid at the federal election last year; Gisele Kapterian, former staffer to Julie Bishop and Michaelia Cash; or Maria Kovacic, state party president and unsuccessful federal candidate for Parramatta. Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reported today that Payne has “told colleagues she does not intend to retire”.

Lydia Lynch of The Australian reported yesterday on a “push within Queensland’s Liberal National Party to bring former Senator Amanda Stoker back into the fold”, with the suggestion that she might topple lower-profile incumbent Paul Scarr to gain the top position on the Senate ticket at the next election. With the second place on the ticket reserved for the Nationals, and no suggestion in the report that a position might become available in the lower house, the only other possibility would be for her to again take third place. This was a losing proposition for her at last year’s election and would also require her to depose an incumbent, in this case ideological fringe dweller Gerard Rennick.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,161 comments on “YouGov Indigenous voice poll: yes 46, no 30 in NSW (open thread)”

Comments Page 1 of 44
1 2 44
  1. Thanks William

    On Tony Abbott’s willingness to seek a lower house seat if there is “overwhelming support”, it’s almost worth joining the Liberal Party to help make it happen. Perhaps they could get Craig Kelly, Clive Palmer and Katherine Deves back into the line up as well. It’s probably not surprising, given their apparent cognitive deficiencies and immunity to evidence, that these RWNJs fantasise that their candidacies will be electoral magic.

  2. What would be the point of replacing Gerard Rennick with Amanda Stoker? They’re both ‘ideological fringe dwellers’. The only plus is that the LNP would increase the number of women in their ranks, but to do it with Stoker would hardly be a gain for the women of this nation.

  3. Election Maps UK @ElectionMapsUK Via @Omnisis , 19 Jan. Changes w/ 12 Jan

    LAB: 50% (+2)
    CON: 24% (-4)
    LDM: 8% (+1)
    GRN: 5% (-2)
    RFM: 5% (+2)
    SNP: 4% (=)

    .

  4. I think getting Marise Payne out of the Senate will be the equivalent of turning the Titanic around. I get the impression she loves being in the Senate. So, if the Moderates want to replace her, and hopefully they don’t replace one of their few females with Dave Sharma, hardly something the supposed Moderate faction should even consider in the first place, then they’ll have to do it at the next election by using ‘arithmetic’ against her.

  5. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. For the last few days I have been unable to access The Australian.

    The national president of the powerful Pharmacy Guild has described the Australian health system as stuffed and called GPs twits for allowing their sector to be commercialised.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-s-health-system-is-stuffed-says-pharmacy-guild-president-20230120-p5ce9g.html
    Emma Koehn reports that the Fair Work Ombudsman will take Super Retail Group, the owner of popular local brands including Rebel Sport and Supercheap Auto, to court with allegations it engaged in serious contraventions of the Fair Work Act when it underpaid staff across its brands. Yesterday, the regulator confirmed it had started legal action against the company in the Federal Court, focusing on 146 employees who were allegedly underpaid around $1.14 million between January 2017 and March 2019.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/fair-work-takes-rebel-supercheap-auto-owner-to-court-over-alleged-underpayments-20230120-p5ce5j.html
    Chris Wallace has a look at the way the Albanese government is performing and says his hands-off approach is fine when things are going fast enough. In nearly all the major portfolios, ministers are doing the grinding, detailed work of reviving public policy and administration after the sustained abuse and neglect of the past decade. Most ministers aren’t wobbling. She goes on to say Mark Butler is the exception. Albanese needs to get him to ride his bike faster before he loses balance, crashes and damages the government.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2023/01/21/summertime-and-the-leading-easy
    George Pell spent decades cultivating the Murdoch press, duchessing editors and senior journalists. The impacts of that political manoeuvring are clear in the coverage since his death, explains Richard Ackland.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/media/2023/01/21/how-cardinal-george-pell-seduced-news-corp
    We are at a crossroads. The Ultra High Net Worth Individual (UHNWI) class is creating a new international feudal order, assisted by the professional enabler class including politicians in pursuit of their money. One of those enabling mechanisms is the media. In Australia, News Corp serves as the strongest weapon in the creation of their desired world, argues Lucy Hamilton.
    https://johnmenadue.com/murdoch-and-the-great-distraction-retired-general-jim-molan-fallujah-pic/
    Tony Abbott has emerged as a favourite to fill Jim Molan’s Senate seat. Dave Donovan examines the latest “generational” scrimmage within the Liberal Party.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-liberal-partys-tony-abbott-reset,17158
    The editorial in The Saturday Paper says, “Fear defines Tony Abbott’s politics: fear of migrants, fear of sex, fear of gay men. He is most comfortable imagining an Australia that does not exist, one untouched by gender equality or the complexities of globalisation. If he were to come back to politics, this is the Australia he would again try to build.”
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/2023/01/21/the-lizard-faced-emperor
    Peter Dutton’s tactics over the Voice referendum may serve his political interests, but they paint the Liberal Party into a corner, opines Malcolm Knox who says there is less devil in the detail than is being voiced.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/there-s-less-devil-in-the-detail-than-is-being-voiced-20230119-p5cdzl.html
    Albanese needs to be more persuasive on the voice – or Dutton’s wrecking ball could break it, says Paul Karp.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2023/jan/21/albanese-needs-to-be-more-persuasive-on-the-voice-or-duttons-wrecking-ball-could-break-it
    Gareth Evens, writing about the Voice, says, “We do need to respond – in a way that has no relevance to any other identifiable group in the community – to our past failings of recognition and commitment. We need to do that not grudgingly but with the kind of sensitivity so trenchantly articulated by Paul Keating in his Redfern address.”
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2023/01/21/listening-the-voice
    As gambling reform becomes a key battleground in the NSW election, it is clear how powerful the clubs lobby has become in a country with more poker machines than anywhere else in the world, writes Mike Seccombe who says, “There are at least four questions about Dominic Perrottet’s Nazi costume, only one of which as yet has an answer. They are: Where is the photo? Does it even exist? If it does, is someone holding it back hoping to inflict more damage on the New South Wales premier by releasing it closer to the March 25 election? And why, almost 20 years after the 21st birthday party at which Perrottet wore the uniform, have we only recently heard about it?”
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2023/01/21/perrottet-the-pokies-lobby-and-the-nazi-uniform
    The extraordinary evidence about the political and administrative approach to compliance with the rule of law emerging from the robodebt royal commission suggests that the commission should slightly widen its inquiry to consider again the role of lawyers within the Commonwealth, and the duties of lawyers and public servants to the rule of law, argues Jack Waterford who concludes with, “What we want and what we need is an affirmation by the robodebt commission that the “client” is never the narrow interests of the department or the minister. The client is the public and the public interest. Lawyers and public servants who forget that should lose the protection of the law.”
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8055899/govt-lawyers-primary-duty-is-to-the-public-not-department-and-minister/?cs=14329
    Luckily for Australia, Treasurer Jim Chalmers is currently reviewing the role of the RBA. The sooner a report is out, the better. The RBA places far too much emphasis on measurement concepts from the 1960s and theory from the 1980s to manage the Australian economy of the 2020s, argues Richard Denniss who says the RBA’s policy book is wrong.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2023/01/21/the-rbas-policy-guide-wrong
    And Michael Pascoe joins in with, “Hey RBA, take another month’s holiday. We don’t want another recession”.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2023/01/21/michael-pascoe-rba-interest-rates-february/
    There has been a surge in demand for carbon credits this month after an independent review backed the integrity of the scheme that will help Australia reach net zero emissions by 2050. With the Albanese government also proposing changes to make big polluters more accountable under the safeguard mechanism, companies have been scrambling to buy Australian carbon credit units (ACCUs) that can be used as offsets for those that cannot reduce their emissions.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/demand-for-carbon-credits-soar-as-scheme-given-green-light-20230120-p5ce7f
    Michael Sainsbury says that corporate giants such as News Corp, Nine Entertainment and the big four banks have invested so heavily in amassing and sharing lucrative personal data that consumer advocates fear they will campaign against anticipated reforms to privacy laws.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/media/2023/01/21/corporate-giants-and-the-data-free-all
    Clancy Yeates explains why regulators need to crack down on crypto.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/why-regulators-need-to-crack-down-on-crypto-20230119-p5cdr4.html
    Popular property funds are under increased scrutiny from the prudential regulator about how they value their assets as the performance gap between funds listed on the ASX and their unlisted rivals blows out to nearly 40 percentage points. Latest performance figures from the Property Council of Australia show that unlisted property funds posted gains of nearly 19 per cent in the nine months to the end of September as listed funds slipped by nearly 20 per cent, or nearly three times the ASX declines for the same period.
    https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/apra-cracks-down-on-property-funds-20230105-p5camm
    The pandemic has caused a surge of fatal cardiac arrests in Australia, as delayed care and COVID’s damaging effect on the heart drives a major uptick in serious heart issues. Aisha Dow reports that more than 10,200 Australians died of ischemic heart disease in the first eight months of 2022 – that is about 17 per cent higher than would be expected in a normal year.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/fatal-heart-attacks-have-surged-in-australia-here-s-why-20230117-p5cd22.html
    The coronavirus and its long-term effects continue to linger in Australia, under the radar of the public and officialdom alike, writes Laura Tingle. She also thinks that the Albanese government is losing the Voice debate.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/covid-19-may-have-been-forgotten-but-it-has-not-gone-20230120-p5ce6g
    The fixation on Qantas won’t end, even if string of incidents were unconnected, writes Elias Visontay.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jan/21/fixation-on-qantas-wont-end-even-if-string-of-incidents-were-unconnected
    Here’s Amanda Meade’s weekly media round-up.
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/commentisfree/2023/jan/20/michael-clarke-and-karl-stefanovic-clash-proves-tabloid-gold-as-daily-mail-chastises-nine-and-abc
    New Zealand’s prime minister was loved around the world, but eventually Jacinda Ardern’s celebrity started to grate on those at home, writes Nick O’Malley.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/oceania/jacinda-ardern-s-empathy-won-global-respect-but-not-a-third-term-20230120-p5ce5e.html
    Julia Baird writes that Ardern’s direct speech, empathy, focus on kindness and the collective served as a dramatic foil to some of the more narcissistic, truth-twisting (or denying) male world leaders who have strutted the international stage in recent years.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/oceania/politicians-become-celebrities-for-a-reason-jacindamania-was-no-different-20230119-p5cdzm.html
    Rob Harris writes about Macron facing his make-or-break moment as more than a million take to the streets over the raising of the retirement age for a full pension from 62.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/more-than-a-million-take-to-french-streets-as-macron-faces-his-make-or-break-moment-20230120-p5ce50.html
    The UK government is about to do something that will make Silicon Valley shudder, or at least make social media executives think twice about flying over British airspace. Rishi Sunak looks all but certain to strengthen the UK’s Online Safety Bill with criminal sanctions for social media bosses, after fierce lobbying from the country’s ruling Conservative party.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/why-mark-zuckerberg-should-face-the-threat-of-jail-20230120-p5ce4j.html
    Even the evangelical idiots are turning away from Trump – and he’s not happy.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/heralding-a-tectonic-shift-evangelical-leaders-are-giving-up-on-trump-20230120-p5ce7b.html

    Cartoon Corner

    Jon Kudelka

    David Pope

    Mark David

    Matt Golding



    Alan Moir

    Oslo Davis

    Jim Pavlidis

    Fiona Katauskas

    Leak

    From the US



  6. Finally, before we all start going nuts trying to catch the trolls out again today, I’m putting these wise words from Bert, up from late last night, in case anyone didn’t get to read them:

    Bert,
    Saturday, January 21st, 2023 – 3:14 am
    Comment #2361
    I really wish that people would stop responding to the fuckwits that infest this place. Yeah they get up people’s nose’s but just ignore them and they’ll go away eventually.
    I mean ignore, don’t engage, respond, quote or even acknowledge they even exist.
    They keep returning because they know that they’ll get a bite.
    Don’t give them one.

  7. Blog Intro
    Sixty-eight per cent rated that the government had done a poor job of explaining how the voice would work, with no detail provided on other responses.
    _____________________
    No surprise there.

  8. some moderates believe the faction should try to poach the seat for one of their own, the chief contenders being defeated Wentworth MP Dave Sharma, unsuccessful Gilmore candidate Andrew Constance and thwarted Warringah preselection hopeful Jane Buncle.

    And adding in Tony Abbott, are these the best they can come up with? Isn’t the moderate faction supposed to be the dominant one in NSW? Where’s all the fresh, enthusiastic new talent coming into the party? Instead we hear abouthas-beens who were rejected by voters.

  9. PANIC!…. KAOS!…. DISASTER!… The Voice referendum is a MESS… ’cause there is no information whatever anywhere you look about it and the voters are completely clueless…

    Ha, ha, ha… and then we get this: “Today’s Daily Telegraph has a YouGov poll showing 46% support for a yes vote in a referendum on an indigenous voice compared with 30% for no, with 24% undecided.”
    Assuming a 50% split among the undecideds as soon as the official campaign is on, we might expect 58% support for the Voice at the referendum, which is consistent with previous polls.

    Methink that the pathetic and laughable “PANIC!…. KAOS!…. DISASTER!… The Voice referendum is a MESS…” tactic is not gonna work… Australia is achangin’, Voter Moronism is on the way down… Good news for our Democracy, very bad news for the Coalition.

  10. “Other than that, the only bit of recent polling I’m aware of is the return of Roy Morgan’s weekly update video and its regular serving of thin gruel on federal voting intention. This records Labor’s two-party lead at 59.5-40.5, out from 58.5-41.5 before the summer break, and a notably wide gap from a series that had found Labor with relatively modest leads for much of last year.”…

    Is this the longest “honeymoon” ever for any party of government?… Why isn’t Murdoch successful at bringing an end to the honeymoon? What’s wrong with the old man? Is anything changing in the electorate?…

  11. Interesting that Tony Abbott would rule out nominating for a vacant Senate seat, but is open to running for a HoR seat. The only takeaway from that is he wants to be party leader again.

  12. Thanks so much BK

    I’m still chortling at the concept of Abbott leaving the door ajar to returning to the House of Reps instead of the Senate. And I’m loving the oxygen the Murdochracy are providing to fan the flames. I’m dying for the media to ask Dutton what he thinks.

    And I’m heartened to by the Telegraph’s poll (fwiw) showing 46% support to 31% against The Voice given that minimal advertising effort has been provided at this early stage. Plenty of work has been put into the No vote by the Murdochracy already but this seems to be struggling.

  13. Ah, Johannes Leak… and his Goebbelsesque cartoons….

    But he is too obvious and predictable, in a De-Moronised country such brutal sense of “humour” can only give nausea to many readers, and pleasure to a small number of lunatics with serious mental issues.

  14. Thanks BK!

    That Chris Wallace piece in TSP is absolutely spot on. I thought Mark Butler was excellent in opposition and during the campaign, but he really seems to be a bit out of his depth in health. Primary care is in a serious crisis which in turn is affecting the hospital system. We’re thankfully not quite at the point where the UK finds itself with the NHS on the brink of collapse, but I think bold and visionary leadership is needed in health and so far Butler seems like he’s being led rather than leading.

    Crickets on Covid as well, despite it being the 3rd highest cause of deaths in the country

  15. I’m still chortling at the concept of Abbott leaving the door ajar to returning to the House of Reps instead of the Senate. And I’m loving the oxygen the Murdochracy are providing to fan the flames. I’m dying for the media to ask Dutton what he thinks.

    It’s either the height of delusion from Abbott, or indication that he, and possibly many other Liberals don’t think Dutton has what it takes to become PM.

  16. Confessions says:
    Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 7:39 am
    Interesting that Tony Abbott would rule out nominating for a vacant Senate seat, but is open to running for a HoR seat. The only takeaway from that is he wants to be party leader again.
    ——————————————————————————————

    Not to mention he literally can’t get a job anywhere else.

  17. “Confessions says:
    Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 7:39 am
    Interesting that Tony Abbott would rule out nominating for a vacant Senate seat, but is open to running for a HoR seat. The only takeaway from that is he wants to be party leader again.”

    Yep, and what more proof would the voters need that the Liberal party has been reduced to a rabble of brainless idiots? The voters are shouting on the face of the Liberal party to leave the far right-wing fringes and become more moderate. Reply by the Liberals: go further to the right!
    Oh well, stupid and proud of it? I am not going to interfere with that belief of the Libs…. 🙂

  18. ”Is this the longest “honeymoon” ever for any party of government?…”

    It’s about 8 months and counting. Keven Rudd and Bob Hawke had over a year.

  19. Thanks as always BK

    This piece sampling views among indigenous Australians about the Voice is interesting. As you’d expect it suggests there’s a high level of support. As you’d also expect, there’s a diversity of views about it. The meme about “not enough detail”, though rubbish in my view and disingenuously peddled by right wing politicians, seems to be getting some traction. Hopefully not enough to derail it.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/raising-indigenous-voices-on-a-voice-to-parliament-20221213-p5c604.html

  20. “Steve777 says:
    Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 7:46 am
    ”Is this the longest “honeymoon” ever for any party of government?…”

    It’s about 8 months and counting. Keven Rudd and Bob Hawke had over a year.”

    Thanks Steve, so we are not there yet…. let’s keep watching the trend…. 🙂

  21. First the electorate threw Tony Abbott out. Then they threw the government out that was created as an Evangelical simulacrum of Abbott’s rabid Catholicism, but which shared many of the same headspaces and ideological policy positions.

    But still the Liberal Party are considering bringing the guy back!?! They must have rocks in their heads! (Those little ones you pay a fortune for when you go to Catholic sacred sites 😉 )

  22. Kevin Rudd was sworn in as PM in early December 2007. His honeymoon lasted through the GFC of 2008 well into 2009. The gloss came off with Utegate in the middle of that year, but when that scandal collapsed in an inglorious heap, he recoved somewhat. In my view the turning point was the Oceanic Viking affair, nearly two years into his Premiership. That was quickly followed by the collapse of the CPRS after the Coalition reneged on their deal and the Greens’ actions in response dealt the killer blow. The rest is history.

  23. “Boerwar says:
    Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 7:51 am
    The Greens, the Nationals, the Liberals and the Sky After Dark Crowd are doing serious damage to the Voice referendum.
    Sad.”

    No, the Greens are not doing damage to the Voice, it’s just Lidia Thorpe and a bunch of BlakGreens supporters. The vast majority of the Greens will obviously come on board and vote for the Voice, there is little doubt about it. This referendum, so far, is just a very bad look for Adam Bandt… but he is still on time to save his face.


  24. Cronussays:
    Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 7:42 am
    Confessions says:
    Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 7:39 am
    Interesting that Tony Abbott would rule out nominating for a vacant Senate seat, but is open to running for a HoR seat. The only takeaway from that is he wants to be party leader again.
    ——————————————————————————————

    Not to mention he literally can’t get a job anywhere else.

    Same with Howard and Morrison. So out of last 4 LNP PMs in last 26 years (almost 27 years), one is self made millionaire and others can’t get job outside parliament (parliament) or party jobs.

  25. Had a dream last night that Albanese resigned in disgrace and Dutton won the subsequent snap election in a landslide. Am I going to be the world’s next great seer after you-know-who?

    Seriously if this referendum fails, and there are many factions hoping it will fail, including the Libs, Nats, Greens, Media and not to mention Jacinta Sellout-Quisling Price, then the Albanese administration may really be fatally damaged.

  26. Ven: Howard is 84 this year and has ischaemic heart disease. Probably has no need of a job. His most honorable option is to live out his miserable life in obscurity and in the meantime shut up.

  27. ‘Alpo says:
    Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 7:59 am

    “Boerwar says:
    Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 7:51 am
    The Greens, the Nationals, the Liberals and the Sky After Dark Crowd are doing serious damage to the Voice referendum.
    Sad.”

    No, the Greens are not doing damage to the Voice, it’s just Lidia Thorpe and a bunch of BlakGreens supporters. The vast majority of the Greens will obviously come on board and vote for the Voice, there is little doubt about it. This referendum, so far, is just a very bad look for Adam Bandt… but he is still on time to save his face.’
    ——————————
    The Greens are all over the place on the Voice. They are adding to the confusion and to the doubt. Bandt is, quite simply, completely absent. Zero leadership on the Voice – except to undermine it.

  28. Melbourne Mammoth,
    I just heard on the TV that power prices are set to come down up to 44% this year as a result of the Albanese government’s energy price cap. So I don’t think they’ll be going out backwards any time soon. Certainly not to the Coalition led by Dutton and Littleproud. Especially when Littleproud was just on Ch9 demanding the government invest in more reliable power ie Coal or Gas-Fired Power Stations. 🙄

  29. MM

    Lots of PMs have (obviously) survived failed referenda.

    Albo will simply move to legislation, which (whilst not what’s wanted and has long term risks) will still demonstrate commitment to the cause and allow progression on the other elements.

  30. The lib/nats combined primary vote is struggling to get over36% at federal /state / territory levels

    That is likely to be the no vote around 36%

  31. “Boerwar says:
    Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 8:11 am

    The Greens are all over the place on the Voice. They are adding to the confusion and to the doubt. Bandt is, quite simply, completely absent. Zero leadership on the Voice – except to undermine it.”

    I am certainly not prepared to demonise the entire Greens party (which would be unfair) only because there is Lidia Thorpe and some other so-called BlakGreens who seem to be against the Yes vote for completely ridiculous reasons, thus making them bestest of friends of the racist Coalition (go and figure…). I am more than confident that most Greens will vote for the Yes option, and some highly regarded members of the Greens leadership are speaking out in favour of the Voice too. But I fully agree with you about the very poor display of leadership shown by Bandt.


  32. Alposays:
    Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 7:49 am
    “Steve777 says:
    Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 7:46 am
    ”Is this the longest “honeymoon” ever for any party of government?…”

    It’s about 8 months and counting. Keven Rudd and Bob Hawke had over a year.”

    Thanks Steve, so we are not there yet…. let’s keep watching the trend….

    Alpo
    I think this time it is different to Hawke and Rudd. They were very popular figures before they became PMs. Number of seats ALP won were equivalent to low 80s when they became PMs. Albanese popularity is low 40s just before he became PM and was 30s for a long time. ALP barely won last 2 seats to get to 77.
    Albanese government built on popularity with competency and hard work.


  33. MelbourneMammothsays:
    Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 8:05 am
    Ven: Howard is 84 this year and has ischaemic heart disease. Probably has no need of a job. His most honorable option is to live out his miserable life in obscurity and in the meantime shut up

    I am not talking about current Howard situation. I am talking about the situation when he lost power almost 16 years ago.

  34. “Scott says:
    Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 8:16 am
    The lib/nats combined primary vote is struggling to get over36% at federal /state / territory levels

    That is likely to be the no vote around 36%”

    The “No” vote may even go up to the low 40s%, but they will lose the referendum, that’s increasingly clear. The “Yes” option will be supported by a percentage of the electorate greater than 50% and smaller than 60%…. and I will be very happy to be proven wrong if the “Yes” option wins by more than 60%!

  35. “Ven says:
    Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 8:23 am

    Alpo
    I think this time it is different to Hawke and Rudd. They were very popular figures before they became PMs. Number of seats ALP won were equivalent to low 80s when they became PMs. Albanese popularity is low 40s just before he became PM and was 30s for a long time. ALP barely won last 2 seats to get to 77.
    Albanese government built on popularity with competency and hard work.”

    Yes, that’s a reasonable argument, Ven. On the other hand, you will have to factor in the situation for the Coalition and their current leader. I can hardly remember a Coalition in worse conditions than the one currently led by Dutton. So, I guess that the honeymoon would be a function of the combined ALP attractiveness (leadership, team, achievements) and Coalition hopelessness.

  36. Re MM @8:03. If you want to be a prophet you have to make your progostications vague enough that you can claim to be right no matter what happens.

    Regarding the Voice, failure would be bad for the Albanese Government but not fatal. It was courageous to go with an early referendum. A more cautious PM might have gone with a legeslated Voice first but the commitment has been made. It would fail because the Opposition and its business and media allies had managed to generate enough confusion, fear and doubt that enough people in enough states vote against it. This was eminently predictable, given that the Opposition is now even more Right-wing than the late and unlamented Morrion Goverment. Hopefully Albanese has planned and is planning on this basis and has counter-strategies as well as a positive message.

    Also, unlike Rudd with the CPRS, Albanese needs a Plan B – not to allow the defeat of the Referendum to either defeat him nor to kick the Voice off into the never-never.

Comments Page 1 of 44
1 2 44

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *