YouGov Indigenous voice poll: yes 46, no 30 in NSW (open thread)

A new poll finds plurality but not majority support for a yes vote on the Indigenous voice, with many undecided.

Today’s Daily Telegraph has a YouGov poll showing 46% support for a yes vote in a referendum on an indigenous voice compared with 30% for no, with 24% undecided. Support was at 61% among Labor voters, 31% among Coalition voters and 72% among the small sample of Greens voters. Sixty-eight per cent rated that the government had done a poor job of explaining how the voice would work, with no detail provided on other responses. The poll was conducted online “last week” from a sample of 1069. UPDATE: The poll was limited to New South Wales.

Other than that, the only bit of recent polling I’m aware of is the return of Roy Morgan’s weekly update video and its regular serving of thin gruel on federal voting intention. This records Labor’s two-party lead at 59.5-40.5, out from 58.5-41.5 before the summer break, and a notably wide gap from a series that had found Labor with relatively modest leads for much of last year.

Also:

• Following the death on Tuesday of New South Wales Liberal Senator Jim Molan, reports suggest the front-runner to succeed him is fellow conservative Dallas McInerney, chief executive of Catholic Schools NSW. However, Max Maddison of The Australian reports some moderates believe the faction should try to poach the seat for one of their own, the chief contenders being defeated Wentworth MP Dave Sharma, unsuccessful Gilmore candidate Andrew Constance and thwarted Warringah preselection hopeful Jane Buncle. Tony Abbott has ruled out a suggestion by former Victorian state party president Michael Kroger that the position should go to him, although Dennis Shanahan of The Australian today reports that would be open to a lower house seat if it had “overwhelming support” in the party.

• Matthew Knott of the Sydney Morning Herald reported on Thursday that moderates were urging Marise Payne to create a second New South Wales Senate vacancy by retiring shortly after the March state election, potentially to be succeeded by Fiona Martin, who lost her seat of Reid at the federal election last year; Gisele Kapterian, former staffer to Julie Bishop and Michaelia Cash; or Maria Kovacic, state party president and unsuccessful federal candidate for Parramatta. Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reported today that Payne has “told colleagues she does not intend to retire”.

• Lydia Lynch of The Australian reported yesterday on a “push within Queensland’s Liberal National Party to bring former Senator Amanda Stoker back into the fold”, with the suggestion that she might topple lower-profile incumbent Paul Scarr to gain the top position on the Senate ticket at the next election. With the second place on the ticket reserved for the Nationals, and no suggestion in the report that a position might become available in the lower house, the only other possibility would be for her to again take third place. This was a losing proposition for her at last year’s election and would also require her to depose an incumbent, in this case ideological fringe dweller Gerard Rennick.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,161 comments on “YouGov Indigenous voice poll: yes 46, no 30 in NSW (open thread)”

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  1. If Greggory’s eyebrows could kill there would need to be a full cleanup of the witness box.
    Who’s in charge of the audio? Has Scommo found a new job after all?

  4. was just thinking costellows heralddesided they dont like vested interests maybi we could have an inquiry in to media consentration and costellow should be nine chairmann with hisbeing a former liberal mp he must have some influence over the heralds pro perottit campaigning he can not say he is not influencing edatorial policy alix smith is particulay terible in her reporting evry positive labor story she demises or down plays she must just be reliying on leaks from perottits ofice and just reporting as fact plus former costelow staffer fifield as comunications minister got rid of the 2 out of 3 rule which means nine can own radio 2gb herald and tv

  6. “Berlin plans to send German Leopard tanks to Ukraine, according to reports
    Germany will send its 2A6 battle tanks in conjunction with other countries such as Finland, Sweden and Poland, say reports citing government sources”…

    Finally, they are putting the tanks where their mouth is… Words won’t drive Putin out of Ukraine!

  9. “ How about we just forget what the Uluru Statement actually says First Nations people want, and just give them what we decide they deserve. If they behave.”

    What a low flyer you are P1.

  11. More on German Leopard tanks to Ukraine:

    “The decision marks a groundbreaking one for Germany, ending months of painful debate and soul-searching, with the move marking the first time that German tanks will have been used on the battlefield in Europe since the second world war.”…

    Hallelujah!… The Germans have finally discovered that there is nothing of interest to watch inside their navel… Well done!… and now it’s up to the Ukrainians to make good use of the tanks! The Spring offensive is coming…

  12. S. Simpson says:
    Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 4:05 pm

    The Warrowen massacre was an apparent mass killing of Bunurong people by a group of Kurnai [Thorpe’s people] people in the vicinity of present-day Brighton, Victoria, Australia. It is dated to the early 1830s, close in time to the founding of Melbourne. The killing was recorded separately several years later by William Thomas and George Augustus Robinson, based on testimony from Aboriginal sources. Thomas stated that at least 60 people had been killed. According to Robinson, the massacre contributed to the end of an entire Bunurong clan, the Yowengerre, allowing a Kurnai clan to take over their territory

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warrowen_massacre
    ————————-
    That’s the battle i was thinking of and Brighton is a long way from Gippsland. Stories from William Buckley were that most conflicts were over the same sort of stuff people the world over have wars over which goes to show that Indigenous societies were developed and organised.

  14. As but one example, in Europe, as we communicate, there is conflict over where lines have been drawn on a map (and who speaks what language within those lines).

    So why single out the history of our First Nation’s people?

    Tribes, hey?

  16. This robodebt testimony is blood boiling stuff. If you want to keep up:

    https://twitter.com/SquigglyRick/status/1618118291154964483

    https://twitter.com/maximumwelfare/status/1618118400265584640

    These aren’t idle questions. This testimony, especially Hurman, has brought up blatant lies in law advice to legislated bodies.

    Rick Morton @SquigglyRick
    Greggery: “I said it is clear that you adopted a course which was not full and frank with the Ombudsman.”
    Hurman: “Yes.”
    this goose is cooked

  18. Marcus Stewart on the Voice referendum:
    “To the tens of thousands of allies set to fill the streets and stand in solidarity with our people, I hope you answer the call by voting yes”

    March on the 26th holding a “YES to the VOICE!” sign….. For many years the 26th of January has been a day for Aborigines to march displaying sadness and demanding more recognition… This year they have the real chance of obtaining that recognition with the help of the majority of compatriots voting YES!… After that, may greater happiness start pervading the life of our First Nations people.

  19. ‘Here we go again says:
    Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 4:35 pm

    As but one example, in Europe, as we communicate, there is conflict over where lines have been drawn on a map (and who speaks what language within those lines).

    So why single out the history of our First Nation’s people?

    Tribes, hey?’
    ————————
    The context is that the Greens Spokesperson for Indigenous Affairs has declared that the Voice is a ‘joke’, that a State of War exists (presumably between First Nations and the Commonwealth of Australia) and further, that prior to 1978 First Nations lived in a state of peace.

    I am curious to know whether Mr Bandt concurs?

  20. ‘None of Your Beeswax says:
    Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 4:37 pm

    ok…..200+ modern Western tanks….great. What about 500 modern western Fighter jets?….’
    ———————————————-
    I rather like the figure of 1000 tanks. That is probably a decisive number. 200? Useful but not decisive.
    500 modern western fighter jets would put you back… between $25 and $50 billion, depending.

  21. Most of the government employees appearing before the Royal commission are shown as former acting holders of positions with the government. Have they all been moved on or out?

  22. “None of Your Beeswax says:
    Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 4:37 pm
    ok…..200+ modern Western tanks….great. What about 500 modern western Fighter jets?….”

    There are some ideas from some NATO countries to send fighter jets to Ukraine. But are they really needed, in the era of missiles and drones? Tanks are definitely needed, simply because in spite of bombing an area to oblivion, you won’t be able to claim it until you get there and occupy it with your infantry, protected by tanks.

  23. ‘timbo says:
    Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 4:16 pm

    If Greggory’s eyebrows could kill there would need to be a full cleanup of the witness box.
    …’
    ——————–
    haha

  24. enjaybee @ #1742 Wednesday, January 25th, 2023 – 4:46 pm

    Most of the government employees appearing before the Royal commission are shown as former acting holders of positions with the government. Have they all been moved on or out?

    Could it be that the Coalition kept Public Servants on their toes, in a similar manner to Trump, by keeping them as Acting instead of confirmed?

  25. There are fewer and fewer solo air superiority fighters.
    Most are multirole.
    I am not sure but it seems to me that the Russians are increasingly using their planes as launching platforms for stand-off missiles.

  27. Just checking back in to the RC – Hurman is now agreeing with every damning accusation Greggery puts to him – interspersed with ‘I can’t recall’.

  28. Acting has always been normal. In particular cases it might be used to test an individual at the next level up.
    At anything above EL2, an APS SES could have their employment terminated very suddenly. Acting or not.

  30. Alpo:….I dont think complete Air superiority over the whole of Ukraine should be poo pooed…..and on the question of money for the jets, I think the cost to Europe, the US and the world will be much greater if the war is alklowed to drag on for years and years….when it could be forshortened with giving everything now and ending it in months.

    When the last Russian soldier leaves Ukraine, then immediately make Ukraine a NATO member. Stuff what Russia thinks and blusters

  31. Just skewered everyone from the DepSec to Hurman – effectively saying a conspiracy to cover up the illegality. This will not end well…

  34. GREGGERY: There was a Department position that was unconcerned with the true nature of lawfulness, accuracy and fairness of the Robodebt scheme, and concerned only with defending its existence?

    HURMAN: I’m not sure.

  36. Paraphrasing : We were lying, we know we were lying, but we lied because we didn’t want people to know that we were lying because then they might stop us lying. Thousands died. Soz (not soz).

  37. I think that Ukraine is looking to re-equip its 10 tank battalions with western MBT. So @ 40 at ask per battalion, we are looking at 400 plus another 200 held in reserve for resupply in the field as tanks are destroyed or breakdown to an extent that they can not be repaired in the field. So 600.

    Ukraine might be able to source around 300 Leo 2s from Poland (maybe 240-250, if the Americans fast track supplying Poland with Abrams), Germany, and Finland.

    That would leave another 300 tanks to source from elsewhere. Perhaps Britain will up its offer from 12 to 60 (enough for a whole tank battalion), maybe even double that if they reduce the number of Challenger 2s they plan on upgrading to challenge 3 capabilities. So, that would be another 2 tank battalions re-equipped. Leaving at least three battalions to be re-equipped by other options. Le Clercs and … Abrams.

    In my view, to try to ‘keep it simple, stupid’ the west should focus on the source of the most available tanks, which in this case would be Leo 2s and Abrams. Due to logistical support issues the battalions that end up with Abrams tanks could be assigned tasks that don’t require as much mobility and endurance as the other tank battalions.

  39. The money you are paid, if you engage in the behaviour that these senior Public Servants did, in order to please a Coalition Minister, when you knew in your heart of hearts that what you were doing was wrong, is never worth it.

  40. “None of Your Beeswax says:
    Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 4:54 pm
    Alpo:….I dont think complete Air superiority over the whole of Ukraine should be poo pooed”… I agree, if achieving such air superiority by supplying the Ukrainians with fighter jets is feasible and there are no alternatives. But I am not sure whether that’s urgent and easily achievable. Some countries have been offering some old fighter jets, but I frankly don’t see the point. Right now, I would probably focus on getting the land-to-air missiles that would down the Russian fighter-jets and drones in defensive mode, plus land-to-land missiles and drones for the Ukrainians to use in an offensive mode. I bet that’s cheaper and could be more effective. Land superiority, however, is going to be crucial to defeat the Russians and drive them out of Ukraine. I am no military expert, but I bet that a war cannot be won from the air.

  41. The Abrams has a range of 300 miles at 45 mph.
    If they can get even 50 Abrams to do a run of half that length in less 24 hours then the whole front would be shattered.

  42. I work in engineering construction. I can just imagine hiding something from an auditor.

    Auditor: That information you hid from us led to thousands of people dying when the thing you built collapsed. Why did you do that?

    Me: We wanted you to view the project team in a positive light.

  43. ‘Desert Qlder says:
    Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 5:03 pm

    If Lidia Thorpe is at war, then it’s with a light mobile force?’
    ———————————-
    haha. I had desisted. First gut the ADF. Then overrun it.

  46. ‘VCT Et3e says:
    Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 5:06 pm

    I’d say lease the NT to Singapore, DR of China/ Taiwan, Palestinian Authority …, say 99 years.’
    ———————————
    NT will, IMO, become an Independent Indigenous Country some time this century.

  50. zoomster

    Does that mean she is dropping the demands in relation to the RCDIAC and the UNDRIP?

    What? Will she resile from calling the Voice a joke?

    How can the Greens have a spokesperson for Indigenous Affairs who is constantly at odds with most of her Party?

    I predicted that Labor would say some things about Makarrata and Treaty to get Bandt out of his hole and as a face saver to enable the Greens to support the Voice referendum.

    I believe that this will happen.

    If Thorpe wants someone to say that First Nations have not ceded sovereignty then she is, IMO, asking for something that is meaningless. The reality of sovereignty in Australia is embodied in the Constitution. Changing actual sovereignty requires a change in the Constitution.

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