Today’s Daily Telegraph has a YouGov poll showing 46% support for a yes vote in a referendum on an indigenous voice compared with 30% for no, with 24% undecided. Support was at 61% among Labor voters, 31% among Coalition voters and 72% among the small sample of Greens voters. Sixty-eight per cent rated that the government had done a poor job of explaining how the voice would work, with no detail provided on other responses. The poll was conducted online “last week” from a sample of 1069. UPDATE: The poll was limited to New South Wales.
Other than that, the only bit of recent polling I’m aware of is the return of Roy Morgan’s weekly update video and its regular serving of thin gruel on federal voting intention. This records Labor’s two-party lead at 59.5-40.5, out from 58.5-41.5 before the summer break, and a notably wide gap from a series that had found Labor with relatively modest leads for much of last year.
Also:
• Following the death on Tuesday of New South Wales Liberal Senator Jim Molan, reports suggest the front-runner to succeed him is fellow conservative Dallas McInerney, chief executive of Catholic Schools NSW. However, Max Maddison of The Australian reports some moderates believe the faction should try to poach the seat for one of their own, the chief contenders being defeated Wentworth MP Dave Sharma, unsuccessful Gilmore candidate Andrew Constance and thwarted Warringah preselection hopeful Jane Buncle. Tony Abbott has ruled out a suggestion by former Victorian state party president Michael Kroger that the position should go to him, although Dennis Shanahan of The Australian today reports that would be open to a lower house seat if it had “overwhelming support” in the party.
• Matthew Knott of the Sydney Morning Herald reported on Thursday that moderates were urging Marise Payne to create a second New South Wales Senate vacancy by retiring shortly after the March state election, potentially to be succeeded by Fiona Martin, who lost her seat of Reid at the federal election last year; Gisele Kapterian, former staffer to Julie Bishop and Michaelia Cash; or Maria Kovacic, state party president and unsuccessful federal candidate for Parramatta. Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reported today that Payne has “told colleagues she does not intend to retire”.
• Lydia Lynch of The Australian reported yesterday on a “push within Queensland’s Liberal National Party to bring former Senator Amanda Stoker back into the fold”, with the suggestion that she might topple lower-profile incumbent Paul Scarr to gain the top position on the Senate ticket at the next election. With the second place on the ticket reserved for the Nationals, and no suggestion in the report that a position might become available in the lower house, the only other possibility would be for her to again take third place. This was a losing proposition for her at last year’s election and would also require her to depose an incumbent, in this case ideological fringe dweller Gerard Rennick.
Thanks C@tmomma.
This is a fascinating and perceptive analysis by a fashion writer for the New York Times, that I have unlocked for you to read for free, about how the clothes that George Santos chooses to wear contribute at least 50% to conning people into believing his lies:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/17/style/george-santos-style.html?unlocked_article_code=nn-KjlDE4wR14Yk000qgwGqAPDZ6LGyYd4LYcPdsJbdAM9JmzRJ8kSDC68MGrp3z5Qd9H5dIPR_ZnwTLho2Xf4L9gQuVrkZSQpvGCrsiO2RNlyb-EWQiVyImAzOj5LLUbVjREzs8DVh3lKT5sPlnZIXPRqoy93V6aS3m8449bFIInEfiYgsPNDw6Wsck4GBXKS9N4SDWicuKnSVXs4dC2wMNiUuoUdYMjAAw7LZWNEjsml3HIAyWgX7ZYTcSCHxyr3yQe7xjhhp2STWjvrosyQ5N04zOK164t6KZi3ycAJZCKuPHeFugJ63BeVIlJSg8GEHSHqt61HczX9k&smid=share-url
Love that the shark sighting on Stradbroke Island turned out to be a lovable dugong.
It was pretty obvious after a nanosecond of viewing the footage that it wasn’t a croc.
Interesting article by Paul Karp on the current situation of the Voice:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2023/jan/21/albanese-needs-to-be-more-persuasive-on-the-voice-or-duttons-wrecking-ball-could-break-it
I can’t wait for the informative ads campaign to start and for the Greens to officially come on board.
Or a shark
It’s been a pretty decent honeymoon alright but with the help of the Murdochcracy and other right wing inclined sources like CH.7 and 9 the opposition is usually able to find areas to attack the ALP. The LNPs whole raison d’etre is to manage crisis’ that emerge from laziness and inaction by throwing tax money at them so they can go about their real purpose which is to redistribute wealth upwards and entrench privilege. The ALP being a more energetic and performance oriented government always opens itself up to criticism from those who are impossible to please. The honeymoon will end at some stage but with Murdochcracy having jumped the shark, it may take a while this time.
Posted this 30 min ago but was lost in the ether so I hope it does not create duplicate posts…
According to this vid Germany will allow others to send the tanks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZUvE80VhhHc
”Love that the shark sighting on Stradbroke Island turned out to be a lovable dugong.
It was pretty obvious after a nanosecond of viewing the footage that it wasn’t a croc.”
Maybe it was a mermaid. Apparently dugongs are the origin of the mermaid myth. Sailors got confused after many months at sea?
Experience suggests the undecided in an Australian federal referendum will overwhelmingly move to a No vote.
This suggests the referendum is already lost.
Australians are a wise people when it comes to referendums, beginning with the referendums which saved Federation from squabbling politicians.
And they were politicians of a far higher calibre than today’s.
The reason for the low success rate is the Founders’ mistake in borrowing the Swiss referendum but only allowing Federal politicians to initiate referendums, the very last group who should have a monopoly on this.
A third of states or a petition by, say, 5% of electors should also be able to initiate a referendum.
butler is not a very good performer surely susan lee showed that you need a strong performer in health don farrell in trade is worse but trade is not usualy a prominant ministry disapointing galligher and jason clare arnt more used clare is one of our best media performers yet he has been sidelind since election winn
but Ranslide not sure whiy you dislike butler so much he is not the best media performer but he is better then anne ruston the invizable shadow minister
zoomster @ #124 Saturday, January 21st, 2023 – 10:32 am
As long as you keep recycling untruths for party political purposes, I will keep recycling their refutation.
Fair?
To post images from Postimage here, you copy the “hotlink for forums”, past it here and delete everything before “http” and after “.jpg” before posting. Make sure that you resize images to be not greater than 640 by 480.
P1
Ah good, so you’re going to stop.
Aqualung @ #NaN Saturday, January 21st, 2023 – 11:30 am
Sharks don’t surface for air. Like crocs. And Dugongs. 🙂
“Player One says:
Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 11:59 am
…As long as you keep recycling untruths for party political purposes, I will keep recycling their refutation.”
So, it’s your recycled untruths against the arguments you don’t like (because they are damaging to your beloved political side) …. Yep, got it!
Steve777 @ #162 Saturday, January 21st, 2023 – 12:00 pm
You used to be able to click on direct link and paste here without faffing about.
Something has changed. Always fiddling…
Liked that article about Santos C@tmomma. There’s definitely a uniform for the right wing up and comers. The IPA clones are a perfect example in Australia.
Every time I see James Griffin on the TV I keep thinking I’ve seen this same guy dressed exactly the same way in various LNP positions across state and federal levels.
He’s Turnbull’s SIL from memory.
Aqualung,
From my memory, James Brown is Turnbull’s S-I-L and Daisy’s hubby. 🙂
Make that ‘was’:
The daughter of an ex-Prime Minister has apparently been spotted on a dating app – and her profile prompt suggests she could be an intimidating option for potential suitors.
Malcolm Turnbull’s daughter Daisy recently split from her husband of 10 years, ex-army officer James Brown, and now appears to be on upmarket dating app Hinge.
C@tmomma @ #168 Saturday, January 21st, 2023 – 12:36 pm
Thanks. They all look alike. 🙂
It’s halfway through a screening right now, but still available on iView.
https://iview.abc.net.au/show/sovereignty-50-years-of-the-tent-embassy/video/NS2206H001S00
From https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-liberal-partys-tony-abbott-reset,17158
“Sections of the Liberal Party want to dump Senator and former Defence Minister Marise Payne from their Senate ticket in the interests of “generational change”, we read this week.”
Doesn’t generational change imply making way for younger talent?
Abbott is 65. Payne 59 if my maths is correct.
If something as innocent as the Voice can’t get up at a referendum, then nothing will. I’m voting Yes, but it’s already clear that the proposal has Buckley’s chance.
timbo @ Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 11:35 am:
“Posted this 30 min ago but was lost in the ether so I hope it does not create duplicate posts…
According to this vid Germany will allow others to send the tanks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZUvE80VhhHc”
=====================
Timbo, thanks for that link. I like this guy. Damn I hope he’s right about the German green light to allies to deploy their Leopards.
“Free The Leopard!”
What a hot mess attempting to square the circle on AUKUS is turning out to be:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/democrat-push-to-grant-australia-a-waiver-to-import-nuclear-subs-earlier-than-expected-20230120-p5ce4e.html
American has real problems of its own right now with its defence ship building industry. Especially with submarines. They are meant to be building 2 SSNs a year, but apparently are only producing at a rate of 1.3 boats a year. The remaining 26 Los Angeles class boats MUST be retired by 2030, so it is likely that number will only be replaced with a maximum of 16 new Virginia class boats, but probably as few as 10. That’s on top of the fact that the USN is already below its specified force projection number of boats.
Even if Osborne is turned into some sort of third US boat building yard, America will have to divert very significant resources – even with Britain’s help and truck loads of Australian money – to make that work. That will in turn slow down its efforts to spool up the production rate in its two boat building yards.
What absurd lengths the three AUKUS countries are going to avoid the obvious partner here: France. Bringing France into the fold solves so many problems for all three countries: not just for AUKUS subs, but for the development of SS(N)X and SS(R)X subs that america and Britain will have to start building sometime in the next 15 years, because it is more likely than not that they will switch to LEU reactors for those fleets.
Timbo, DW and other news outlets aren’t reporting it that way:
“ Berlin has yet to give the go-ahead to Leopard-owning allies like Poland or Finland, who desire to send them to Ukraine.”
https://www.dw.com/en/ramstein-talks-no-decision-on-german-tanks-for-ukraine/a-64468440
Has anybody heard anything of NSW Election seat polling? Apparently some was released in the last couple of days?
Rex Douglas says:
Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 8:49 am
I’m sorry, but I can’t see the logic in Albo wanting to legislate the Voice if the voters reject it at a referendum.
That is a repeat of the Blairite disaster re Brexit.
==========================================================================
David Cameron became the UK PM in 2010. He took the Brexit vote to the 2015 election in a misguided attempt to fend off the feral UKIP wing of the Conservatives.
The vote was conducted in 2016.
Blair resigned as Prime Minister in 2007 and Gordon Brown was elected leader by the Parliamentary Labour Party.
What on Earth does Brexit have to do with Blair?
Ven says:
Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 10:22 am
”
C@tmommasays:
Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 8:31 am
Ven,
Are you back from Europe yet?
”
Yes. I came back with family on 19/01 (Thursday).
Thanks for asking.
——————————————————————————————-
Welcome back, any significant thoughts or opinions from the trip?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/halfway-across-the-nullarbor-mad-ted-and-a-busted-charger-ran-us-off-the-road-20230118-p5cdiq.html
After reading this and admittedly not too up to date on evs, I was wondering if a portable generator would be capable of charging if you got caught out of range of a charging point?
I realise a diesel generator defeats the purpose but in a pinch, why not?
C@tmomma says:
Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 9:37 am
I’m just waiting to see if the lack of full-throated support from The Greens for the Voice Referendum will have an effect on their numbers in the first Newspoll of the year. Which should be out in a couple of weeks time, all things being equal, with parliament resuming in early February.
____________
A problem being that if the Greens go from 12% to 10%, they’ve either lost 1 in 6 of their primary vote (which would be disastrous for a major party) or it is simply a statistical blip within the margin of error.
I’m pretty pessimistic regarding The Voice getting up. I’m thinking that over a campaign, the percentage of Australians supporting it will be chipped away.
The Toorak Toff says:
Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 12:54 pm
If something as innocent as the Voice can’t get up at a referendum, then nothing will. I’m voting Yes, but it’s already clear that the proposal has Buckley’s chance.
———-
If precedent regarding contested referendums is a guide, this is probably a fair call. And in the currently polarised political environment, given that anything and everything is likely to be contested, that would mean that any form of constitutional change is likely to be difficult or impossible to achieve.
On the other hand, the sample of constitutional referendums is pretty small , particularly in the last few decades, so it’s difficult to know how far history is a reliable guide in this case. Cultural and generational change over the last 20-30 years might make a difference.
I think there’s still a reasonable chance Yes will get up but, very regrettably, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if it didn’t.
is the pockies ishue realy a top ishue in nsw i think it is moore likely a media driven campaign buy the herald no one i talk to has even mentiond it it seems perrottits government is tired as half his cabenit has left
Thhis has not been mentiond any were but if coalition do winn we dont know who the health minister transport minister and other key positions will be customer survice is the premier inbattled after weeks of hype there party is devided over perrottits pockies move with out consulting his party now minns neutralised the ishue and the lcoalition has nothing tim costellow must not be to happy that if he band club donations he is just copying minns plus on corear politicians friendly jordies may thing its just labor but also tony abott brad hazard abets were mps foor over 30 years
alix smith thought this was the great hope for perrottit i dont believe the conspirasy teorey that the perrottit birthday revolations had any thing to do with gambling just that elliott got him to admit it becaus he is upset he is retiring the liberals are not smart if they bring abbott back after he waas voted out in 2019 and is sceen as part of the reason whiy the party had its worst defeat in 2022
Joe Hildebrandt on how the Yes vote can win the referendum.
“(I)f there are genuine fears about an Indigenous Voice becoming corrupted or ineffective or undermining equality, here is the magic suit of armour: ‘The parliament shall have the power to dissolve and reconstitute the Voice.’
…
This would give parliament a critical constitutional reserve power but also ensure the Voice would be a permanent feature, allowing its role or structure to change as times and needs required.
It would also make it all but impossible to oppose at the upcoming referendum. And that’s exactly what the Voice should be.”
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/business/single-sentence-that-could-end-the-debate-over-an-indigenous-voice/news-story/0679bf5b9127d1f4a182ffb128e16d9d
The trouble with Hildebrand’s idea is that it – once again – makes FN affairs subject to the approval of the government of the day.
Voice will, by its nature, speak truth to power. It can’t do that with the threat of dissolution hanging over its head.
From “Australia’s most trusted news”
As the war in Ukraine heads towards the one-year mark, so far there has been only one clear winner — the US arms industry.
———————————————-
Please tell me it isn’t so.
zoomster says:
Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 3:30 pm
The trouble with Hildebrand’s idea is that it – once again – makes FN affairs subject to the approval of the government of the day.
Voice will, by its nature, speak truth to power. It can’t do that with the threat of dissolution hanging over its head.
_____________________________________________
The trouble with Hildebrand’s idea is that it is exactly the same (but populist legal minefield dumb arse wording added).
Just a reminder of of what Albanese proposed to get the ball rolling:
Here are the proposed sentences:
1.There shall be a body, to be called the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice.
2.The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice may make representations to Parliament and the Executive Government on matters relating to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples.
3.The Parliament shall, subject to this Constitution, have power to make laws with respect to the composition, functions, powers and procedures of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice.
There is no substantive difference between what Hildebrand proposes and what Albanese proposes, other than the fact that Hildebrand’s proposal is as vague as all shit.
https://apple.news/A7iWvjh__Ro-4O_iKbDJ5xw
Albo one talks to Gates about almost good enough software. Especially proprietary, rather than open source.
Organisational minimal tax, billionaires/ multi-millionaires death tax …
Hmmm, may be embrace, extend, extinguish rather than climate disruption, energy and health issues?
Anyway do prioritise environment, health, inequality, powershift and governance.
I can’t see Dutton ever supporting the Voice, it is totally against his instincts which was always to command and control everything and silence anyone he could that he didn’t like. Just look at his record as a minister!
Marty says:
Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 1:37 pm
Rex Douglas says:
Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 8:49 am
I’m sorry, but I can’t see the logic in Albo wanting to legislate the Voice if the voters reject it at a referendum.
That is a repeat of the Blairite disaster re Brexit.
==========================================================================
David Cameron became the UK PM in 2010. He took the Brexit vote to the 2015 election in a misguided attempt to fend off the feral UKIP wing of the Conservatives.
The vote was conducted in 2016.
Blair resigned as Prime Minister in 2007 and Gordon Brown was elected leader by the Parliamentary Labour Party.
What on Earth does Brexit have to do with Blair?
____________
Brexit has to do with Blair precisely what Rex says it does.
”
Cronussays:
Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 2:17 pm
Ven says:
Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 10:22 am
”
C@tmommasays:
Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 8:31 am
Ven,
Are you back from Europe yet?
”
Yes. I came back with family on 19/01 (Thursday).
Thanks for asking.
——————————————————————————————-
Welcome back, any significant thoughts or opinions from the trip?
”
Cronus
I did not follow the news in UK and Europe. People seem to go about their daily business as usual.
As I said earlier UK and Europe especially Europe are very expensive when compared to Australia even in small cities.
Ukranian war is not topic of the town either in Europe or UK.
I saw a quite a few castles and palaces.
After reading and watching the videos about them, I understood why Europeans especially France and Germany want to avoid wars after WW2. These Empires, Kingdoms and countries prior to WW2 were constantly in a state of war because of which the ordinary people suffered a lot.
IMO, Princess Diana modelled her life based on Austrian-Hungary Empress Elisabeth (Sisi) because there are some similarities to their lives.
I felt Switzerland did not suffer much because of their non-aligned policy.
Switzerland is a land of lakes and mountains. The lakes were in very tranquil state.
As I explained earlier I enjoyed New Year fireworks in Heidelberg, Germany. My DIL knows French. So we did not have any problems in France. In Germany, the people at Airbnb and Hotels spoke in English.
Eiffel tower was magnificent in lights.
My son and DIL live in England. So they accompanied us through out Europe and UK.
I watched Swiss Alps with snow from close quarters and it was wonderful sight.
More in future post
A key reason Dutton will (eventually) oppose the Voice: this poll says only 31% of Coalition supporters favour it.
A key reason Dutton will bang away about “details” is that its the best way to make the most people question and perhaps vote against the Voice.
“Snappy Tom says:
Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 4:06 pm
A key reason Dutton will (eventually) oppose the Voice: this poll says only 31% of Coalition supporters favour it.
A key reason Dutton will bang away about “details” is that its the best way to make the most people question and perhaps vote against the Voice.”
The key assumption for the “details” tactic used by Dutton is that there are still enough Voting Morons in the electorate. I am afraid that Dutton will learn the hard way (just as Scomo did last year) that the Coalition is fast running out of Voting Morons.
Australia Day will be interesting this year. We’ll have the treaty first/sovereignty rallies, hopefully some pro voice rallies, plus the usual jingoism and bogans
If I had the option I’d probably just work……
Marty @ #176 Saturday, January 21st, 2023 – 1:37 pm
Following the Brexit referendum, the right faction of the British Labour Party (commonly known as the Blairites) refused to accept the democratic will of the people, in a similar fashion to Trumpers, and screeched for a second referendum and all sorts of responses to avoid Brexit.
The Blairites basically thumbed their noses at the voters, who later punished Labour at the general election largely for their disrespect of democracy.
I can’t believe the ALP would be equally as stupid in rejecting a NO vote win and trying to legislate a Voice anyway.
Look, if the partisan brawling for political points can be largely taken out of the debate, then I think the YES vote will win easily.
PageBoi @ #195 Saturday, January 21st, 2023 – 4:26 pm
Albo needs to read the room and change the date.
Rex
Well, it would appear from your description that the ‘Blairites’ put the good of the country ahead of populism.
I thought you were all for governments doing what was right rather than what was popular.