Click here for full Victorian election results updated live.
Friday, December 8
The last in doubt seat was determined in Labor’s favour today, with the preference distribution in Bass showing Labor incumbent Jordan Crugnale the winner with 20,803 votes (50.24%) over 20,601 (49.76%) for Liberal candidate Alan Brown. Labor thus emerges with 56 lower house seats, up one from their total in 2018; the Liberals on 19, down two, and the Nationals on nine, up three, with one or the other presumably to win Narracan when the supplementary election is held; the Greens four, up one; and independents from three to zero.
In the upper house count, the ABC’s projected margin for Transport Matters incumbent Rod Barton over Aiv Puglielli of the Greens at the final count for North-Eastern Metropolitan has narrowed to 16.95% to 16.38%, at which point the Greens could be confident that below-the-line votes would win them the seat. Barton is also a hair’s breadth away from exclusion behind Sustainable Australia at an earlier point in the count.
Thursday, December 8
Labor chalked up another win today when the button was pressed on Pakenham, revealing that their candidate Emma Vulin prevailed over David Farrelly of the Liberals at the last by 19,587 (50.39%) to 19,280 (49.61%). That gets Labor to 55 seats, which most likely will get to 56 when the button is pressed tomorrow on Bass, barring the emergence of some as yet undetected anomaly that up-ends the 211 vote margin on the two-candidate preferred count.
Wednesday, December 7
The preference distribution for Pakenham, earlier promised for today, will now be finalised tomorrow according to the VEC. That remains the only seat in doubt now that Northcote is decided for Labor, although I note that the ABC still rates Bass, where Labor leads by 211, as in doubt. There too the VEC is promising a preference distribution tomorrow. The preference distribution in Preston established that independent Gaetano Greco did not in fact make the final count, at which Labor retained the seat ahead of the Greens by a margin of 2.1%.
Tuesday, December 6
A preference distribution has been run for Northcote, which I believe was conducted electronically, with Labor incumbent Kat Theophanous making it over the line at the final count with 21,413 votes (50.22%) to Greens candidate Campbell Gome’s 21,229 (49.78%). The VEC site says “a recheck is taking place for this district”, but the ABC reports the figures as final.
In the other yet-to-be-called seat, Pakenham, Antony Green relates that the re-check of first preferences has shown up anomalies that will put Labor ahead when corrected, with the published results remaining those of the initial count. This involved an increase in the number of votes designated informal, which cut 274 from the Liberal primary vote tally compared with 111 from Labor’s. The difference is sufficient to cancel out the Liberals’ 90 vote lead on the two-candidate preferred count, though not so handily that you would rule out further anomalies tipping the result back the other way. The matter will seemingly be clarified when a full preference distribution is conducted tomorrow. Should the result go Labor’s way, they will have repeated their feat from 2018 of winning 55 seats, despite a statewide two-party swing that looks to be in excess of 3%.
Monday, December 5
My previous update dropped the ball with respect to Northcote, where a 1523-994 break on absent votes brought the Greens right back into contention. Labor now leads by 189 with the outstanding vote likely to consist of around 1500 postals, of which the latest batch broke an even 123-123, and a handful of provisionals.
The Liberals have opened a 90 vote lead in Pakenham, after the latest early votes broke 450-356 and postals broke 80-67, outweighing a 208-189 break to Labor on absents. There are still about 1500 postals to be accounted for, and since these have broken 51-49 in favour of the Liberals so far, this seems assured to remain close.
Mornington continues to edge out of reach of independent candidate Kate Lardner, with absents (349-338), early votes (268-203) and postals (110-102) all breaking slightly the way of Liberal candidate Chris Crewther, whose lead is out from 491 votes to 575. My results system is now calling it for Crewther, leaving only Northcote and Pakenham in doubt.
In the upper house count, second Liberal candidate Joe McCracken’s position in Western Victoria has strengthened appreciably, leaving him a likely winner over Stuart Grimley of Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party. The Greens and Legalise Cannabis remain in a race for a third left-wing seat, with Labor and now Liberal on course for two seats each.
Sunday, December 4
There are probably three lower house seats that are still in real doubt, not counting Narracan which will presumably be won by the Liberals or Nationals. This gets Labor to 54 seats with a best case scenario of 56; the Coalition to 26 with a best case scenario of 29; the Greens to four; and one outside possibility for an independent.
The most remarkable of the close races is Pakenham which was tied as of Friday, before Liberal candidate David Farrelly opened up a three-vote lead after a batch of absents were added over the weekend. Farrelly held a 220 vote lead mid-week before postals broke 964-781 to Labor and early votes did so by 457-420.
Labor holds a 285 lead in Bass, out from 53 after favourable results on early vote (1768-1643), absents (539-438) and recent batches of postals (826-820). Postals, of which the first batch broke strongly to the Liberals but more recent arrivals have been neutral, should account for most of the remainder, although there may also be significant numbers of outstanding absents.
Liberal candidate Chris Crewther’s lead over independent Kate Lardner in Mornington is now at 491 votes, out from 353, after postals favoured him 751-717 and early votes did so 413-329. The former were less strong for Crewther than earlier postals, of which at least 3000 yet to come. Together with the fact that further absents are likely outstanding, this means Crewther can’t be considered home and hosed quite yet, though he is clearly a short-priced favourite
Elsewhere, Paul Mercurio is probably home for Labor in Hastings, his lead out from 659 to 803 after the lastest postals broke 151-116 his way and absents broke 290-221. Labor’s lead over the Greens in Northcote is down from 874 to 781 after a batch of early votes favoured the Greens 1645-1454, outweighing an 832-734 break to Labor on the latest postals.
Now, finally, to the upper house, where the ABC is currently projecting a final result of Labor 15, Coalition 13, Legalise Cannabis three, Greens two and (deep breath) Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party, Liberal Democrats, Animal Justice, Shooters Fishers and Farmers, Transport Matters, the Democratic Labour Party and One Nation on one each. However, the ABC projections assume all votes are above-the-line and duly follow the group voting tickets, which likely means an over-estimation of the number of micro-party winners. To deal with the eight regions in turn, all links below being to the ABC projections:
North-Eastern Metropolitan. Labor and the Liberals will clearly win two apiece, but the last seat could go either to the Greens or the beneficiary or the micro-party preference network, which on current numbers is projected to be Transport Matters but they come close to dropping out at a number of points in the count. Other contenders could be the Liberal Democrats and the DLP, although I would imagine below-the-line leakage would be such that their collective chances are weaker than the ABC projection indicates.
Eastern Victoria. The Liberals and Nationals have a clear two quotas and Labor one, and Labor’s surplus is well clear of what the Greens can muster, ensuring the latter drops out and elects Labor’s second candidate with a substantial surplus of left-wing votes. These then ensure that the final seat goes to Shooters Fishers and Farmers rather than One Nation.
Northern Metropolitan. Two Labor, one Liberal and one Greens candidate each stand to be elected with little surplus to spare. This makes the final seat a question of whether a right-wing preference bloc elects Adem Somyurek of the DLP, or left-wing bloc (Victorian Socialists, Legalise Cannabis and Animal Justice) elects Fiona Patten of Reason, with the former seeming increasingly more likely as the count progresses.
Northern Victoria. The Coalition has two quotas and Labor has one with a big surplus. Beyond that, it seems clear that One Nation will emerge the beneficiaries of a right-wing preference snowball that will push them from 3.75% all the way to a quota, and that Animal Justice will win a seat out of the Druery preference network they ultimately reneged on, soaking up preferences from Sack Dan Andrews, Health Australia, Derryn Hinch’s Justice, the Liberal Democrats, as well as the left-wing surplus from Victorian Socialists, Reason, Legalise Cannabis and ultimately the Greens.
South-Eastern Metropolitan. Labor has two seats with about 0.4 quotas to spare and the Liberals one plus about 0.6. Labor’s surplus plus the Greens’ 0.4 quotas will elect Legalise Cannabis, leaving the final seat a tight race between the second Liberal and the Liberal Democrats.
Southern Metropolitan. This seems straightforward: the Liberals win a clear two seats without much to spare, Labor falls just short of a second quota on first preferences and the Greens just short of a first, with both of the latter absorbing enough preferences to push them over their respective lines.
Western Metropolitan. Labor will win two seats with about a quarter of a quota to spare and the Liberals one with about a half. The latter two seats then develop as parallel races between the Greens, Legalise Cannabis and Victorian Socialists on the left, respectively at 8.10%, 7.45% and 7.13% at the relevant point of the count, and the second Liberal and the DLP on the right, who are respectively projected to end the count on 17.48% and 15.85%.
Western Victoria. Labor has two seats and about a quarter of a quota to spare, and the Coalition one and a bit more than half. That leaves enough left-wing votes for a third seat that could go to Legalise Cannabis or the Greens, with the former projected to emerge 11.72% to 9.57% clear after one-way traffic on preferences from Reason, Animal Justice and Labor. Most of the ensuing surplus transfer then goes to Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party, who are then projected to win the final seat over the second Liberal by 17.45% to 15.88%, although this could seemingly go either way.
Daniel: “Is nobody going to acknowledge the fact that Labor gaining a seat despite a 3% swing against them on the TPP isn’t representative and unfair?”
Is unfair that they didn’t win more seats at the 2018 election, true.
If you want to know why the Libs are doing so terribly in the lower house, you need only look at the recent tweets of Rob Baillieu. He sums the situation up quite nicely. The LNP are a shell of their former selves. They have been taken over by monster raving looney RWNJs, who saw an empty vessel there for the taking. They are no longer the party of Menzies or Fraser or Costello. They actively seek to drum out moderate voices. So successfully have they sone that, a former IPA executive, promulgator of the African gangs travesty, is seen as moderate. He looks nice, but he hangs out with Deeming, and others to repugnant to remember.
What is unfair is that the collapse of the Liberals has meant Victorians have no viable opposition to vote for. I wouldn’t vote for them anyway but others might want an acceptable alternative to Labor and the Greens.
Nick Xenophon was all over this when he set up his Centralist alternative in SA 5 years ago – for all the good it did him.
So, Daniel, NO. The result was not unfair. It reflected the will of the people combined with the single member electorate lower house. The upper house is the house that does not accurately reflect the will of the people, but in that case it is due to the absurd retention of GTV. It is well past its use by date.
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I handed out for the Greens in a regional centre. I copped a lot of abuse (admittedly I gave some back, sorry Ms Ratnam) from old white cocky liberal men and some bat shit crazy cookers. Yet the the result was a thumping win for the ALP in that booth.
( LNP -389 Green -105 ALP 495. 55/45 2pp to the ALP)
Any neutral by-stander observing the booth would have assumed the Libs had a lock on government – in a landslide, so confident were the vocal liberal supporters as they came to vote.
What struck me is they were all 60 year old men, grey-haired or bald, well dressed and swooping in regally with their families to vote. The daughters coming in behind them all picked up the Greens, Alp and Animal Justice flyers – many of them rolling their eyes.
Empty vessels really do make the most noise, all sound and fury signifying nothing. Poor impotents that they are.
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Thank you to Trent for his/her/your excellent analysis.
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The Age today has run an article asking for feed back on their election coverage!!!! LOL. No mea culpa yet about how they swallowed LNP propaganda holus bolus and did no actual analysis at all. They just repeated LNP soundbites. Melton at risk? Really?
Their own headlines about their own polls were deliberately misleading. Remember the neck and neck line above a poll result of 55-45! Shame on them.
Dear AGE: Next time a party official whispers to you about their internal polling – dispute it! They lied to you! Both the LNP and Labor were making it up and looked on in amazement when you ran with it. The Redbridge guy was just making it up!
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Kos, you’ve been in my home, mate. We were once friends, No falling out, we’re just no longer in touch. Next time the ABC says, hey, can you come and appear on a panel with your business partner to offer balance – say no. The ABC should not have done that to you, but you should have said no.
__________________
What do RWNJS use for contraception?
Their misogyny.
MABWM
What do you think will happen with the cookers going forward?
MABWM
The media’s rabid anti Andrews campaign was so desperate it finished up helping Andrews.
Victoria – Ditto – what do you think?
My view is they are lost to sensible conversation and mainstream politics. Some were working class ALP type voters (I know one or two). Many were lonely people, struggling with the Covid new world, who found a community on-line during lock downs. They have though, by and large splintered the conservative vote.
The LNP committed Hari-kari when they cosied up to them. No thinking moderate LNP voter could possibly remain in the fold. The RWNJs and cookers (often the same people….) will cannibalise theLNP from within and without.
Telling moderate LNP voters to vote for extremists ahead of the (albeit) hated but mainstream ALP was an act of monumental stupidity. In the next breath they were told to vote Green ahead of the ALP. Your average Right but not Looney Right LNP voter hates the Greens even more than they dislike the ALP – but they also hate political opportunism. The message was: We can’t win so let’s fuck over the government. That was a Kirkup moment. (I don’t claim this as an original thesis, btw.)
Long term I see the Teals coalescing in to a moderate centralist party as the LNP continues to romp off down Trump Road.
The LNP are not flirting with fascists, they are in bed with them. The general public has worked that out.
The cookers will be left with their more intimate appendages swinging in the breeze.
Meanwhile Murdoch needs to be put out of business – for the sake of democracy.
Over to you Victoria…. (and Trent what’s your view? ) Jeremiad, please note, I am not asking youse.
I’m pretty certain about the make up of the Legislative Council now.
ALP 15, LNP 15, Greens 3, Legalise Cannabis 3, SFF 1, ON 1, DLP 1, Animal Justice 1.
The only ones I’m not 100% sure about are Legalise Cannabis in Western Victoria because it’s close and Justice Party received a lot of backing. It will come down to BTL preferences.
The Greens in NEMet are not guaranteed either, but I think BTL preferences will favour them over the Druery group.
I think the rest is settled .
@Mexicanbeemer –
“The media’s rabid anti Andrews campaign was so desperate it finished up helping Andrews.”
Absolutely. It was worth 5-10 retained seats. It’s called cognitive dissonance.
The people were being told Dan was a Dictator who went off on a romp of his own. Guy was visibly associating with cookers and cheats. The Libs were obviously in disarray and they clearly think only men have merit.
Their lived experience was different to what they were being told. Most people are not stupid, even thought he MSM think they are.
It worked a little bit in the North and West in the forgotten ‘burbs with inadequate infrastructure and manual jobs, but in the leafy suburbs the masses said; “Que?”
Meanwhile we were being told Guy and his rabble were a viable alternative! Que?
Southwick referring everything to IBAC on a daily basis should have cost him his seat. He was lucky he had a dummy independent in his seat. His facebook/TV ad showed the libs for what they are. (I went to uni with Southwick – he was a smarmy opportunist back then, too!) How he remains as their deputy leader and was never considered for leader speaks volumes.
I really have to get back to work!
The cookers look to be overrated because there wasn’t anything unusual about this election result. Lets take Cranbourne for two elections we have heard it was swinging only for it to deliver about the same result each time so it seems that the angry cookers are the same people that just moan about governments.
The Teals have the opportunity to become a Deakin Liberal type centerist party because the Liberals clearly don’t want that space but the Teals might see their support fluctuate like we see with the Greens depending on the stage of the political cycle and this state election was at a different stage than the last federal election.
This comment above from MABWM really interest me. Without giving anything personal away can you elaborate on this a bit?
I watched the coverage a little but TBH spent a lot more time on other network coverage (Kennett Bracks was fascinating to me) so missed a lot of what happened on the ABC with Kos and curious as to why he shouldn’t have gone on?
Quote from MABWM –
Kos, you’ve been in my home, mate. We were once friends, No falling out, we’re just no longer in touch. Next time the ABC says, hey, can you come and appear on a panel with your business partner to offer balance – say no. The ABC should not have done that to you, but you should have said no.
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Mexb: “The Teals have the opportunity to become a Deakin Liberal type centerist party because the Liberals clearly don’t want that space but the Teals might see their support fluctuate like we see with the Greens depending on the stage of the political cycle and this state election was at a different stage than the last federal election.”
If the Teals ever do decide to become a party, they could find their numbers significantly increased by liberals that defect. From the surviving cohort that is. Which is shrinking. Kind of a tick tock thing.
Jeremy C Browne says:
Friday, December 9, 2022 at 7:19 pm
Snappy Tom,
I’m sorry but your logic is fallacious. If sovereignty was ‘never ceded’ then logically it stands to reason that all subsequent allocations of land were illegal. Is my house on aboriginal land or the crowns? Simple question. Of course, aboriginals had no system of land ownership comparable to the British. They had small tribal areas with no overarching property rights. It was only when western cartographers arrived that Australia as a geographical entity was recognizable. No aboriginal person had the faintest idea how big Australia was. I ask, who would the British ask as to who has responsibility for Australian land? There was no one. No Titles Office that’s for sure.
Ven, Snappy, MABWM, Mr Money, I know how much you want to hear about my lunch so I’m happy to oblige. You’ll be pleased to know that our brunch was both scrumptious and delightful. Of course, my date was the real highlight. She was witty, sophisticated, full of amusing anecdotes and had a fine line of Dan jokes. Quite charming and even though I’m a gentleman, very, very sexy. Why is it that right wing girls are so hot compared to their left wing equivalents? Sure, personal hygiene is important, as is being well dressed. Have yet to find a classy, left wing lady. I guess men don’t like being preached at with shouted cliches. That’s always a mood killer.
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Your house (and mine) IS on first nations’ land.
Evicting us from our houses has never been an objective of first nations peoples.
A just and proper settlement of the illegal acquisition of this country by non-first nations people is an objective – and can be achieved without evicting even you from your house.
All of which you know but choose to ignore in the pursuit of a propaganda war.
MABWM
Sorry for not acknowledging your response to my query earlier today. I had to go and sort out a family situation.
i concur with your assessment re the liberals courting the cooker vote, and the effect thereof.
@Daniel, no I don’t think its unfair. The lower house system is designed to have local representation which I think is a good thing, and in this case 56 geographic areas preferred a Labor representative.
I believe the 2PP swing against Labor is just under 3% which isn’t a whole lot, but importantly in the context of local representation, it was almost entirely in one particular very safe Labor region.
So geographically if the entirety of the swing against Labor was confined to areas that went from REALLY overwhelmingly preferring Labor to still very strongly preferring Labor, then how would it be more fair that Liberals get more representation? The reason Labor gained a seat is because other areas went from narrowly preferring Liberal to narrowly preferring Labor, and they also deserve the representation they voted for.
It’s worth noting too that Labor’s notional seat count post-redistribution was 58 seats, so technically they did still lose 2 but did better than 2018 because the 2018 boundaries were less equitable.
Proportional representation to balance things out belongs in the upper house (which does require reform), where Labor did lose 3 seats consistent with their reduced vote.
Your considered analysis is always a thing that requires thought to unwrap Trent. Love your work.
What I find hilarious about the Victorian media’s desperate attempts to make this election look closer than it actually was is that all that they ultimately achieved was trolling Liberal supporters. Can you imagine how devastating election night must have been for the true believers who actually believed that they were in with a shot at taking government?
On the subject of new voting methods, I’m honestly curious about how the WA 2025 Upper House election will go. Over there, they’ve made a change from something similar to Victoria’s multi-region group-voting-ticket to a statewide PR system without GVT’s, with 37 members elected each term.
That would be expected to have quite a few microparty MLC’s, but at the very least, if elected that way, the elected members can say that they were elected with more direct votes than other parties.
@William
Small typo in the Friday update – the Lib candidate for Bass wasn’t Alan Brown (MP from the late 80s), it was his son *Aaron Brown.
Hi Trent, will you be do similar analysis of the N.S.W. election next year as you did with the Victorian election just past?
@Doubledummy:
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Samaras and Barry are business partners. They sat on either side of Karvelas, on a 3 person panel show, implying they were coming from different perspectives. Sure one is an “ex-Lib” and the other is “ex-lab”, but it looked off.
During that episode they were two of the four experts including Karvelas – (Antony Green, not seated on the panel, was the fourth!) talking up the minority government schtick. All four of them knew (or should have known) that all the published opinion polls did not support this notion.
Those two shows, not the election night broadcast, were the issue. I should have been more succinct.
I had no issue with them both appearing on the election night coverage, there were enough other people to make it a non-issue. It was in the lead up programs on ABC that one or the other should have declined when they were presented as experts from a different point of view. There were two episodes – do one each.
One or the other needed to say, nah, get someone else.
Ironically, Barry was the star of the show on 26/11. The spokesperson from the losing side is of course the ‘money shot’ on election night. (Dan shot to prominence as the front man on the night of the 2010 loss and Pesutto is now opposition leader after he lost graciously live on television.)
*just my opinion, of course.
To be fair, I think Kos was more circumspect about the result.
Snappy Tom,
I’ve checked and rechecked the title to my house. There is no mention of it being on aboriginal land. None so you are wrong.
There is nothing stopping you from giving your property away so why don’t you do it? Wouldn’t that be a great gesture of reconciliation? Sure you lose your house but aren’t you correcting a great historical wrong? Don’t you believe that stealing is wrong? Hypocrite.
Of course what you really want is yet many more $billions of our money for people of one race only.
Just to reiterate, my house is NOT on aboriginal land. Never was, never will be.
Jeremy, you and I are both the beneficiaries of an unrecognised genocide.
I have no intention of handing over my house, but I do acknowledge the wrongs that have been committed.
Too many comments from me of late. I’m on self exclusion for a few days.
Another typo in the results. Pakenham was won by Labor.
If the first preference votes that went away from the ALP, went to the Liberals, I would say that Daniel has a case. However their first preference vote was 29.6% a reduction of 0.4%.
We also had 14 contests that came down to something other than the traditional Lab v LNP. This number is increasing and we are seeing more tactical voting for the independent which would pull away from the ALP primary and 2PP in a few locations.
The 1/3 of the electorate who are parking their vote with other than the 2 majors is obviously having a bigger effect on the LNP at this point in time. Like anything, it’s probably a bit of swings and roundabouts. Who knows what influence this effect might have in 20 years time…
William,
If you’re still monitoring this thread, your results facility is still incorrectly showing Pakenham as a LIB GAIN. It doesn’t appear to have been updated with the final distribution of preferences.
No one cares what you think about history JCB. The laws of our land don’t care about the opinions of the cookers that can’t grasp it. Shout at the clouds if you think it will make a difference.
Vic Labor hold 44 seats with a 2PP share 56%+
The 2026 state election is Labors to lose.
I hope they work positively with lefty upper house BoP.
Toby Esterhase says:
Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 9:25 am
William,
If you’re still monitoring this thread, your results facility is still incorrectly showing Pakenham as a LIB GAIN. It doesn’t appear to have been updated with the final distribution of preferences.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
William hasn’t updated his Results Summary per se since last Thursday.
Good luck to him and no big deal.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Long term I see the Teals coalescing in to a moderate centralist party as the LNP continues to romp off down Trump Road.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The Teal appeal to supporters and volunteers is that they are not a party, becoming one would erode that – but somebody may well try to see if there is enough philosophy in common among their MPs to give party formation a shot.
It would take a high profile name (did somebody say Turnbull …) to inspire the move to party status and carry the conversation with the public.
Such a party would probably have one effect – as suggested in the earlier post – to push the Libs into a rump conservative party.
Jeremy C Browne says:
Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 8:29 am
Snappy Tom,
I’ve checked and rechecked the title to my house. There is no mention of it being on aboriginal land. None so you are wrong.
There is nothing stopping you from giving your property away so why don’t you do it? Wouldn’t that be a great gesture of reconciliation? Sure you lose your house but aren’t you correcting a great historical wrong? Don’t you believe that stealing is wrong? Hypocrite.
Of course what you really want is yet many more $billions of our money for people of one race only.
Just to reiterate, my house is NOT on aboriginal land. Never was, never will be.
____________
Thanks for showing us the kind of person you are.
I can’t think of any optics worse than a man, a failed Prime Minister at that, being the person to bring together all the Teal women into a party? Why would they want anything to do with him? I don’t know enough about all of them, but Monique Ryan would die laughing.
edwardo says:
Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 5:11 pm
It would take a high profile name (did somebody say Turnbull …) to inspire the move to party status and carry the conversation with the public.
I can’t think of any optics worse than a man, a failed Prime Minister at that, being the person to bring together all the Teal women into a party? Why would they want anything to do with him? I don’t know enough about all of them, but Monique Ryan would die laughing.
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Turnbull is a member of the moneyed set so would be welcomed by the Teals and they don’t see him as a failed Prime Minister but let down by his party.
Jeremy C Browne says:
There is nothing stopping you from giving your property away so why don’t you do it? Wouldn’t that be a great gesture of reconciliation? Sure you lose your house but aren’t you correcting a great historical wrong? Don’t you believe that stealing is wrong? Hypocrite.
—————-
No one is asking for your house.
Is Victorian State seats pendulum ready?
Or how much seats did each side won by less than 500 votes?
For 2026, the Coalition needs to pick up 17 seats for majority government. They also need themselves, or right leaning independents to pick up 17 seats for minority government, considering the crossbench is 100% greens. Assuming the coalition win the deferred election.
Looking at the post election pendulum, and ignoring the seats with Labor vs Green margins, the Coalition needs to win everything up to Bentleigh, on an 8% margin.
Pre election, they needed 18 seats for majority government, or potentially as low as 15 seats for minority government. That’s a 10.2% swing for potential minority government or 10.4% for majority.
Interestingly, that’s a 2.4% reduction in the swing required for majority, delivered by a 2.4% swing in 2PP vote.
Also interesting, Labor went from 12 ‘very safe’ seats (20% margin+) to 0. 3 of them went from very safe to marginal as the 2nd party switched from Lib to Green, while the others had smaller swings.
Libs crying foul over so-called unfair electoral boundaries is so much tosh. I’ve lived a long life and the rural gerrymanders in the Reps and in all the states’ houses remains in my memory. First we heard about how hard it was to service a sprawling country member’s electorate (well, I remember how extra funds for flights and offices solved that). I also recall as a young man being ear bashed by a drunken one-legged Roberts Dunstan, MLA for Mornington and useless minister, about how Liberal electorates paid more tax, therefore deserved having fewer voters. He would often balance on his crutch and topple over whenever he sought sympathy. Anyway, large parts of his old electorate are now in ALP hands. So much for his legacy….excuse the pun.
An interesting (unlabelled) map of the 2pp swing at the election in each seat.
Where is the final distribution of preferences for Mulgrave. Unless the VEC is in Andrew’s pocket, and its too embarrassing to release.
Preference distributions are not conducted in Victoria beyond the point at which the winner exceeds 50%, which in this case Daniel Andrews accomplished on first preferences, his result having been the opposite of what you say it was, however much that may pain you.
@michael
There isn’t one and there never will be one – because there didn’t need to be one. He scored 51% of the primary vote and won without the need for any preferences. The VEC has limited resources and doesn’t bother doing full distributions of preferences once a candidate hits 50% plus one of the primary vote.
@michael
One day, someone other than the VEC might try to calculate an Andrews v Cook TCP, but it won’t produce a result much different to the flogging you got on the TCP (assuming you’re indeed Michael Piastrino). Why would the preferences from that 49% of the primary vote flow much differently to Ian Cook than to you?
For those who are interested, I’ve just run the numbers and for Cook to have done better than Piastrino on a TCP vs Andrews, Cook would’ve needed to have received *at least* 70% of preferences from those who didn’t cast their primary vote for him or Andrews. I’d be surprised if the true figure was more than a couple of % off 70% either way.
@Ven,
Labor won 3 seats by less than 500: Northcote by 184, Bass by 202 and Pakenham by 307.
The Liberals’ smallest win was Mornington by 590.
What is interesting here is how many seats are marginal. The libs hold few seats with a margin greater than 5% I think 2 or 3. Even seats like Hawthorn seat of new leader is within 2%. The 3 seats won by the nats from independents could all change at the next election.
The demographic of country areas are still very pro Labor. A combination of demographic change and a new boundary change when due will deliver the seat of Polwarth to Labor all things being equal within the next 2 elections
Re: Mick Quinliven @ 6.06am
By my reckoning the ALP hold 12 seats with a margin between 0.3% & 4.4%, the LNP have a combined 14 seats within the >5% margin.
However, the ALP have a further 22 seats between 5% – 10%, with the LNP having a combined 7 seats within this margin, too.
South West Coast & Malvern @ 8.3% are the safest Liberal seats, whilst the National Party hold 5 seats between 18% (Ovens Valley) & 23.9% (Gippsland East).
Hawthorn is held with a 1.5% margin.
The safest ALP seat, currently, is Dandenong with a 19.1% margin.
Polworth, with a 1.8% margin would be a worthy target for the ALP with the ALP vote consolidating strongly within the Geelong / South Barwon area.
Despite the swing away from the ALP, this year, which ate some of the margins in their northern & western Melbourne seats I would be more concerned if I was an Opposition MP.
@ Macca RB
‘Consolidating’ is putting it mildly. The swings to Labor in Geelong and South Barwon were remarkable. I suspect that Labor’s policy of capping V/Line fares at the Zone 1+2 rate helped a lot in both. And maybe Geelong was affected by Darren Lyons not being on the ballot this time? I agree that Polwarth is an obvious Labor target next time.
@Toby – a significant contribution to the swing to Labor in Geelong and South Barwon was the independent vote of 2018 going back to them. Both 2018 independents – Lyons and Cole – attracted votes from Labor (and to some extent Liberals (to Lyons) and Greens (to Cole) too).
@WanderWest,
I remembered Lyons (who wouldn’t?) but didn’t remember Cole.
The current geographical distribution of voters helps Labor – they really do have a ‘Red Wall’ in the north and west of Melbourne which creates a base of about 28 seats which it seems the Liberals just can’t win (including a few Greens ones). Add in the Frankston line seats, Ballarat, Bendigo and Geelong and it is difficult to see where the next Coalition win comes from.
Nothing is impossible and I take nothing for granted – but it would take a massive sweep of all the eastern and south-eastern suburbs of Melbourne and even then they would have to win every feasible regional seat.
This seems a contrast to NSW – I have never analysed the state electorate map too closely but it seems to me that Labor in NSW won’t get much ‘bang for their buck’ in 2023. They have 37 seats and need 10 for a majority. There are three Coalition seats under 1% on the pendulum, one on 3.1% and then you’re into the over 5% margins. To get 10 on a uniform swing they need 6.8%.
To get one of those ‘much talked about’ minority governments I would presume they could rely on support from three Greens and at least two independents (Alex Greenwich and Greg Piper) so that would still need five seats, and a 5% swing. Conversely of course the Coalition are on 47 seats and if they lost even just East Hills (0.1%) they would go into minority.
Rocket Rocketsays:
Tuesday, December 13, 2022 at 8:59 pm
“Nothing is impossible and I take nothing for granted – but it would take a massive sweep of all the eastern and south-eastern suburbs of Melbourne and even then they would have to win every feasible regional seat.”
________
That’s the real problem for the coalition in Victoria as I see it. Add to that the fact that a number of key infrastructure developments that directly benefit those seats will be reaching completion in the 12-18 months ahead of the 26 election, including the metro rail tunnel which is scheduled for completion in 2025.