Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor (open thread)

Newspoll records a surge in approval for Anthony Albanese with Labor maintaining its commanding position on voting intention.

The Australian reports what sounds like it will be the last Newspoll for the year has come in with the two-party preferred unchanged at 55-45 in favour of Labor 39% (up one), Coalition 35% (steady), Greens 11% (steady), One Nation 6% and United Australia Party 1%. Anthony Albanese’s approval rating is up three to a new high of 62% and down four on disapproval to 29%, and his lead over Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister has blown out from 54-27 to 59-24. Peter Dutton is respectively down three to 36% and one to 45%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1508.

In further federal polling news, I missed that Essential Research has snuck out its first set of voting intention numbers since the election, which it will hopefully now resume reporting regularly. Without excluding a 6% undecided component, this showed primary votes of Labor 33%, Coalition 31%, Greens 13% and others 6%, with the “2PP+” measure at Labor 51%, Coalition 43% and undecided 6%. The poll was conducted November 23 to 29 from a sample of 1042.

Note also the post immediately below from Adrian Beaumont on the US Senate run-off election for Georgia, which will unfold over the coming week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

997 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. Eston Kohver @ #942 Tuesday, December 6th, 2022 – 8:25 pm

    Just received an electricity rates increase note from my electricity supplier (SA, supplier rhymes with NoMerd)

    Peak: was 33c/kWh. Now 62.15c
    Off peak: was 19.8c. Now 47.85c
    Shoulder: was 9.9c. Now 47.85c

    Well this is going to make things awkward

    But isn’t SA 100% Renewables, or near enough to it?

  2. Thanks Yabba. I have smart metering for good reason and I’d prefer to charge the car when power is cheap. I expect most other suppliers will follow.

  3. Socrates says:
    Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 8:30 pm
    ajm

    “It would be nice if conflict could always be resolved without actual struggle and struggle often results in ethically ambiguous situations. Ask the Ukrainians”

    Once more with the non-sequiter. Not clear how Ukraine defending itself justifies blocking a bridge in another country. You are free to have your own opinion, and I won’t try to change your mind, but I do not find your reasoning compatible with any ethical theories I am familiar with.
    ******
    For me, the answer to these ‘do the means justify the ends’ arguments always boil down to another question: what were the means and what are the ends.
    The disruption strikes me as at the lower end of the scale. Unfortunately, the benefit to the end of increasing support for action on climate change also appears to me to be at the same end, if not closer to zero.
    Should she have expected some form of judicial sanction? I would have thought so. From a distance the punishment seems to me to be disproportionate.
    As an aside, this sort of action wouldn’t happen so much if the media was more inclined to deal with ideas rather than being mindlessly drawn to colour and movement and we in the public didn’t constantly vote through our viewing/reading preferences for froth over substance.

  4. C@tmomma @ #959 Tuesday, December 6th, 2022 – 8:58 pm

    Thank you, yabba. I’llcheck them out once I see what my supplier, Energy Australia offers me. Probably nothing good.

    C@tmomma
    Red Energy is also 100% Australian owned. Energy Australia is Hong Kong/Chinese. I prefer to buy Australian where I can but obviously factors such as cost will play a role for many people.

  5. Mavis @8.29 pm:

    No, not that Jack Crawford. I suppose I should have used the full Sir John title, but in our family he was always just Jack as he and my father had known each other since primary school at Bexley and high school at Sydney High.

  6. nathsays:
    Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 7:10 pm
    Vic 2006 – Greens 0 seats
    Vic 2010 Greens 0 seats
    Vic 2014 Greens 2 seats
    Vic 2018 Greens 3 seats
    Vic 2022 Greens 4 seats

    Why do you keep doing it ?

  7. So Morrison, the man who secretly took upon himself the responsibility for 5-6 additional ministries, wants the Robodebt Commissioner to believe that he shared responsibility for Robodebt with other cabinet ministers.

    This is a very difficult argument to successfully construct given the very obvious inherent contradictions (timings notwithstanding).

  8. Boerwar @ #899 Tuesday, December 6th, 2022 – 3:54 pm

    ‘Dr Doolittle says:
    Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 6:36 pm

    Historyintime at 5.54 pm

    It is the law that Minns et. al. supported that is the problem, not just the magistrate.

    See: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/06/documents-reveal-scramble-to-rubber-stamp-nsw-bill-targeting-climate-protests

    The law is in breach of article 21 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, ratified by Australia in August 1980:

    “Article 21
    The right of peaceful assembly shall be recognized. No restrictions may be placed on the exercise of this right other than those imposed in conformity with the law and which are necessary in a democratic society in the interests of national security or public safety, public order (ordre public), the protection of public health or morals or the protection of the rights and freedoms of others.”

    The public health measures introduced to mitigate Covid (now abandoned) clearly complied with that article. The Perrottet/Minns restriction on the right to protest does not. It is tweedledum knee-jerk authoritarianism done for populist effect.’
    ================================
    The right to drive to work and earn a crust without being bastardized by Cookers, etc, is an important human right, I would have thought. There is nothing particularly peaceful about obstructing the free movement of others.

    The police are going to have a wow of a time next farmers or truckies protest in NSW.

  9. gollsays:
    Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 9:13 pm
    nathsays:
    Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 7:10 pm
    Vic 2006 – Greens 0 seats
    Vic 2010 Greens 0 seats
    Vic 2014 Greens 2 seats
    Vic 2018 Greens 3 seats
    Vic 2022 Greens 4 seats

    Why do you keep doing it ?
    —————————————
    Greens 5 seats were well backed and short market odds election day.
    Were Greens in bed with the bookies?

  10. Economics is a made-up science, built upon a number of broad assumptions that don’t fully align with reality. Like that people are always economically rational actors.

    Having economics be a sub-branch of human psychology would at least be honest, and more accurate.

    Yeah, most of what passes for mainstream economics today is propaganda rather than science. It doesn’t provide many useful descriptions, explanations, and predictions about real-world phenomena.

    If you combine Modern Monetary Theory with Ecological Economics you get an excellent macroeconomic framework. If you add Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman’s work on heuristics and cognitive biases, which supplied the foundations of Behavioral Economics, you have an excellent microeconomic framework. Marxism is an good framework for understanding international political economy (IPE). Imre Lakatov’s concept of progressive research programs versus degenerative research programs is useful for understanding the nature of scientific inquiry, especially the fact that progress in any scientific discipline, including economics, is not linear or guaranteed. To understand economics in a holistic sense you need at least those five frameworks.

  11. Bennelong Lurker:

    Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 9:11 pm

    Mavis @8.29 pm:

    [‘No, not that Jack Crawford. I suppose I should have used the full Sir John title, but in our family he was always just Jack as he and my father had known each other since primary school at Bexley and high school at Sydney High.’]

    Cheers, BL. I met Jack Crawford (the tennis player) via a friend in the ’80s. Although he was on the cusp of a calendar grand slam in the ’30s, he fell on tough times, when there was no money in the sport. He became homeless. A number of his compatriots came to his support, providing him with accommodation in an apartment block adjacent to the El Alamein Fountain, Kings Cross, close to the Rex…

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Crawford_(tennis)

  12. The right to drive to work and earn a crust without being bastardized by Cookers, etc, is an important human right, I would have thought. There is nothing particularly peaceful about obstructing the free movement of others.

    Ah, I can hear you now hurrumphing away about those Suffragette’wimmin’ were busy disturbing the peace , blocking streets and disrupting horse races. 😆

  13. The right to drive to work and earn a crust without being bastardized by Cookers, etc, is an important human right, I would have thought.

    While people can of course disagree in good faith about which political tactics are more likely to be effective in a given context, it is obviously wrong to assert that effective political action is never disruptive. Clearly quite a lot of political projects that ended up succeeding were massively disruptive. If powerful people are deeply entrenched in their opposition to a necessary change that would benefit society and the stakes of the issues are very high, if would actually be pretty weird if the necessary change could be achieved without significant disruption to people’s lives.

  14. ajm – I have been hearing this idea of demographic aging destroying the Liberal Party for 30 years, and yet the Liberal Party won 3 elections on the bounce before 2022 despite being adamantly opposed to doing anything about climate change, full of bigots, dodgy scandals galore, and the worst you could say (or make up) about Labor is OMG franking credits! Death tax!

    Think about the fact that the article you linked was from 2009, and what happened at the elections following 2009. We’ve been down this “the Libs are screwed now!” triumphalism path before.

    The Liberals didn’t win the three elections before 2022 based only on people who were already over 60 in 2007.

    Seriously this is an article from 2009 which claims that to avoid a decade in the political wilderness, the Coalition needed to purge people like Tony Abbott. Whoops….

  15. Nicholas says:
    Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 9:43 pm
    …..While people can of course disagree in good faith about which political tactics are more likely to be effective in a given context, it is obviously wrong to assert that effective political action is never disruptive. Clearly quite a lot of political projects that ended up succeeding were massively disruptive. If powerful people are deeply entrenched in their opposition to a necessary change that would benefit society and the stakes of the issues are very high, if would actually be pretty weird if the necessary change could be achieved without significant disruption to people’s lives.
    *********
    I absolutely agree with this.
    I’d just add that avoiding/minimising collateral damage or dislocation is not only of moral importance, it is also more often than not strategically important in building a coalition for change.
    Always look for ways to make it easy (as possible) for people to support/join you.

  16. Andrew Earlwood

    “Ah.hem.”

    https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/france-can-help-albanese-fix-aukus

    Yes we both know that shelf exists. But Hastie is refusing to consider the product it contains.

    Thinking about why some defense types like Hastie are so insistent on a UK or US design of SSN, it is really quite irrational to me. How would they know they are better, expect for the tiny minority who are familiar with subs? It seems hard to put it down to anything more than an anglophile dislike of France.

    The main technical features cited to justify the superiority of the UK and US subs are the Type 2076 sonar in the Astutes and the US combat system in the Virginias. Both were to have been fitted in the Attack Class and could easily be fitted in the Suffrens. A Suffren fitted with both would be an excellent SSN, probably superior to the French version.

  17. Peaceful protests are usually pretty useless, where the political class just ignores it, because fundamentally their is zero pressure on them to do anything different.

    Protests that disrupts can indeed be counterproductive but at the same time it is what is fundamentally what true protesting is, which is to disrupt and cause inconvenience to a particular group, that is what Unions do when they do strikes.

    I don’t think holding up a bridge as a climate protest makes that much sense though, but the penalty of being jailed I find quite alarming and verging on something you see in dictatorships.

  18. Boerwar @ #899 Tuesday, December 6th, 2022 – 5:54 pm

    The right to drive to work and earn a crust without being bastardized by Cookers, etc, is an important human right, I would have thought. There is nothing particularly peaceful about obstructing the free movement of others.

    If the movement is purely for the purposes of toiling away for another day at a job that they hate, or at least would rather not be doing, is it really “free”? Seems a nearly worthless right; “you have the right to participate in a social contract where you can either work to earn money or be homeless and hungry, whether or not you agree to participate” doesn’t really appeal, next to others like “free speech” and “freedom of religion”, etc..

    Greater outrage should be reserved for the people who were kept from having a nice day at the beach. They’re at least out trying to enjoy a right for their own sake.

  19. Blocking traffic on the Harbour Bridge in a protest is pointless – it just annoys people and gives ammunition to whoever you’re protesting against. Be that as it may, eight months jail is excessive.

  20. Taylormade says:
    Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 9:27 pm

    Lookout Yabba’s on the case.
    中华人民共和国
    LOL Taylormade

  21. ACT (100% renewable)
    $1.03 per day supply charge
    $0.23 per kWh normal
    $0.14 controlled load.
    The difference is government-negotiated long-term contracts.

  22. @socrates:

    “ The main technical features cited to justify the superiority of the UK and US subs are the Type 2076 sonar in the Astutes and the US combat system in the Virginias.”

    Are you certain that Thales Type 2076 sonar system is superior to Thales UMS 3000 system used on the Suffren class?

  23. Peter T says:
    Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 11:08 pm

    ACT (100% renewable)
    $1.03 per day supply charge
    $0.23 per kWh normal
    $0.14 controlled load.
    The difference is government-negotiated long-term contracts.

    中华人民共和国
    Thailand (10% renewable) numbers are in $AU
    Monthly Service Fee $1.61
    $0.16 kWh normal
    (no controlled supply)
    Plus 7% services charge on total bill.

  24. https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/12/04/newspoll-55-45-to-labor-open-thread/comment-page-20/#comment-4023384

    SA had renewable electricity generated within SA equivalent to 66.8% of its electricity usage and some of that was exported because SA often generates more renewable energy than it can use itself. SA has hydro so the rest is either imported, fossil generated (almost entirely gas, hence the price rises), or in a small amount of storage.

    https://opennem.org.au/energy/sa1/?range=all-12-mth-rolling&interval=1M&filter=november

  25. Andrew Earlwood

    “ Are you certain that Thales Type 2076 sonar system is superior to Thales UMS 3000 system used on the Suffren class?”

    No of course I’m not certain! Only serving submariners would know, and they aren’t allowed to tell. 🙂

    I said it was “cited” as superior (to all others). This is reportedly from wargames with other NATO subs.

  26. Socrates / Earlwood

    RN Submarine Service is probably better than the French, incl ability to get better result from roughly equivalent kit

    But that’s in Cold War missions; improved amenity of French boats likely changes the balance

  27. Futures prices for wholesale electricity in SA over the next year range from 14c/kWh to 24c/kWh: https://www.aer.gov.au/wholesale-markets/wholesale-statistics/quarterly-base-futures-prices-and-volume-traded

    The rest of the price is retailer overhead and distribution / transmission costs. Those are particularly high in South Australia because of its geography – it has few people spread over a very large area so they have to spend a lot on “poles & wires”. Best get as much rooftop solar as you can, if you live in SA.

  28. Canada did try to buy nuclear subs from the Mother Country in the 1980s. They have a pressing need for Navy to server under the Arctic, which only nuclear can do. For all anyone knows, there could be a Chinese underwater city up there (not really, of course)

    They got dudded by said Mother Country offloading surplus conventional subs, which have never worked.

    And everyone accepts Canada is not pulling its NATO weight, notwithstanding their ability to shoot targets at ridiculous distances. This could be corrected by:
    – 12 boat SSN fleet (also finally correcting the historical Canadian refusal to operate in the Pacific)
    – battalion sized polar sea-air-land element, rotating through Norway or Finland
    – squadron sized polar air element, rotating likewise

  29. I suppose 8 months for a protest is better than 1 year for a root.

    Indonesian parliament approves legislation to outlaw extra-marital sex

    Indonesia’s parliament approved a new criminal code on Tuesday (Dec 6) that bans sex outside marriage with a punishment of up to one year in jail, despite worries the laws may scare away tourists from its tropical shores and harm investment.

    The new code, which will apply to Indonesians and foreigners alike, also prohibits cohabitation between unmarried couples. It was passed with support from all political parties.

    https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/indonesia-parliament-approves-legislation-bans-sex-outside-marriage-new-law-3124811

  30. The other barney at 5:25 wonders if anglo stereotyping of asians gave them a false sense of superiority.

    I recall as a lad having a conversation with a WW2 who served in North Africa and then in the Pacific. He told me how propaganda at the time led them to believe that the Japanese were little weaklings who had bad eyesight and inferior equipment. The first three Japanese he encountered were all over 6 feet tall.

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