Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor (open thread)

Newspoll records a surge in approval for Anthony Albanese with Labor maintaining its commanding position on voting intention.

The Australian reports what sounds like it will be the last Newspoll for the year has come in with the two-party preferred unchanged at 55-45 in favour of Labor 39% (up one), Coalition 35% (steady), Greens 11% (steady), One Nation 6% and United Australia Party 1%. Anthony Albanese’s approval rating is up three to a new high of 62% and down four on disapproval to 29%, and his lead over Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister has blown out from 54-27 to 59-24. Peter Dutton is respectively down three to 36% and one to 45%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1508.

In further federal polling news, I missed that Essential Research has snuck out its first set of voting intention numbers since the election, which it will hopefully now resume reporting regularly. Without excluding a 6% undecided component, this showed primary votes of Labor 33%, Coalition 31%, Greens 13% and others 6%, with the “2PP+” measure at Labor 51%, Coalition 43% and undecided 6%. The poll was conducted November 23 to 29 from a sample of 1042.

Note also the post immediately below from Adrian Beaumont on the US Senate run-off election for Georgia, which will unfold over the coming week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

999 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor (open thread)”

Comments Page 1 of 20
1 2 20
  1. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, December 4, 2022 at 9:50 pm
    Who knew people supported a government that got things done? For them.
    中华人民共和国
    And deliver on its election promises.

  2. Ah, Essential is back with their nonsensical TPP+. They can then claim never to have been wrong. Also means they can actually be right. I would call it TPP minus.
    Anyway 51/(51+43) = 54.25%
    So it is about the same, give or take some rounding (If that 51% was actually 51.2% and the 43% was 42.7%, it would 54.526% which would round to 55%)

  3. Excellent, but really no surprise. Effective, competent, calm government in the WHOLE national interest appeals to most Australians. And they have still only been in government a little over six months. I think Anthony Albanese is in for a lengthy stint as PM if this is any indication.

  4. A Labor 55-45 result in an actual election would be fantastic. It hasn’t happened since 1946. It would be nice to think that we are in the early days of a long Labor Federal dominance. Six months after their victories Hawke and Rudd looked untouchable. Let’s hope that it’s late 1983 not mid 2008.

  5. Steve777 says:
    Sunday, December 4, 2022 at 10:09 pm
    A Labor 55-45 result in an actual election would be fantastic. It hasn’t happened since 1946. It would be nice to think that we are in the early days of a long Labor Federal dominance. Six months after their victories Hawke and Rudd looked untouchable. Let’s hope that it’s late 1983 not mid 2008.
    中华人民共和国
    And Albo don’t go early on a Marathon campaign!

  6. ”Who knew people supported a government that got things done? For them.

    And deliver on its election promises.”

    And doesn’t lie through its teeth, dogwhistle, divide the country for political gain, demonise class enemies, attack the vulnerable, porkbarrel and generally treat the public purse like a reelection slush fund, play fast and loose with our trade and national security and hand over billions to mates…

  7. Upnorth says:
    Sunday, December 4, 2022 at 10:15 pm:

    “ And Albo don’t go early on a Marathon campaign!”
    =========================

    Yes, I think the ALP won’t do a Hawke 1984 Redux anytime, ever.

  8. If the sample size for the Newspoll is about 2,000 the margin of error is a bit over 2%. The MOE for the Essential Poll is about 3%. The two polls are consistent.

  9. Unsurprising but uplifting result nonetheless. The government has achieved several several recent legislative victories that have delivered on election promises and have generally just been getting on with the business of government, while Dutton and the opposition have completely misread the public mood on Scott Morrison and his many ministries.

  10. This poll is probably also a measure of Australia’s relief at finally having a pro in charge, ably supported by a strong team of pros. For too long, this joint was being run by self-absorbed game-players.

  11. Setting aside how evil and weak Russia has become under 20 years of Putin, time to look at the current and historical strength of Ukraine, in https://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/ukraines-superiority.html:

    “ Ukraine’s Superiority

    By Diane Francis. Published Dec. 4 at 11:09 am

    Putin’s failure in Ukraine is rooted in his flawed belief in Russian military superiority and that Russia defeated Hitler. But the facts are that Ukrainian resilience and courage played a key role in degrading Germany as it moved east toward Moscow.

    Half of all casualties sustained by all Soviet Union republics during the Second World War were Ukrainian. The toughest battles took place in Ukraine where cities and villages were razed, Kyiv was held under siege for months, and millions were enslaved then deported to work camps in Germany. Its population plummeted from 41.7 million in 1939 to 27.4 million by 1945.

    One in four soldiers in the Soviet forces was of Ukrainian origin, a disproportionate number of its generals were, and 2.5 million Ukrainians were awarded commendations and medals at war’s end.

    And yet, in 2010, Putin claimed that the Second World War could have been won without Ukraine [or America’s lend-lease aid] and stated that it “was won because of Russian industrial resources.” This historical revisionism convinced him to attack on Feb. 24 and will result in Russia’s defeat.”

  12. https://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/ukraines-superiority.html continues:

    “ Putin’s other myth has been that Russians are great strategists when it comes to chess and war. But Ukrainians have outplayed them despite having fewer pieces and a late start.

    For example, Putin’s under-estimation of Ukraine convinced him to send only 150,000 troops to conquer the place – compared to the 600,000 Russians troops that were sent into tiny Czechoslovakia in 1968 to quell its independence movement.

    After Feb. 24, Ukrainians scrambled and were able to prevent Russian tanks and convoys from capturing their capital city. Ukraine then quickly formulated winning strategies on the fly.

    Its priority was to control the “narrative” globally which has captured European and American support and gained access to NATO’S arsenal of weapons.

    Its population was mobilized, women and children were evacuated, its army of technology and engineering professionals were harnessed, and now in less than one year Ukraine has built a well-trained and efficient armed force of one million, Europe’s largest and most innovative military.”

  13. https://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/ukraines-superiority.html continues:

    “ Putin bombed and destroyed cities and villages as he quickly grabbed territory but he now retreats. He has lost geopolitically as well as on the battlefield and Russia’s economy is collapsing.

    His only remaining advantage is that he has “escalation dominance” over Ukraine because Russia’s nuclear arsenal prevents NATO from direct involvement.

    In recent weeks, he’s shifted tactics and now attempts to bomb Ukraine into submission by killing civilians and destroying its energy infrastructure.

    Countries are now shipping systems to protect its airspace and major NATO members are now considering sending long-range missiles to Ukraine so that it can destroy the warships and sites inside Russia where attacks are coming from.”

  14. https://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/ukraines-superiority.html continues:

    “ What’s unique is that Ukrainian resolve strengthens with each attack. A recent poll showed that more than 90 per cent of Ukrainians want to become part of the European Union even if it requires another two or three years of war.

    Despite bombardment, they remain fearless and uniquely ingenious. Ukrainian literacy rates are the highest in Europe, its engineering expertise is recognized, and the country’s IT sector is second to none.

    As a result, Ukraine’s army has impressed the world with its inventiveness at utilizing drone technology and the ability to adapt, repair, and enhance new and old weapons.

    Days after massive recent attacks, destroyed infrastructure was being replaced, bypassed, or repaired, and the government began rolling out “points of invincibility” to provide food, water, medicines, shelter, arctic-weight sleeping bags, thermal clothing, blankets, heat, and charging facilities.”

  15. Re newspoll. There’s something to be said about getting shit done.

    Macarthur,
    Bombing civilians never, ever works. It work hardens soldiers and civilians alike.

  16. Steve777 @ Sunday, December 4, 2022 at 10:41 pm:

    “Australia’s relief that the adults who they were told were going to take charge have finally arrived.”
    =======================

    Yes – only 8 years, 8 months and 14 days too late. That’s 8 years, 8 months and 14 days we’ll all never get back. Still, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and his excellent Government are setting us back on the right course now, and boy, does it feel good!

  17. One gets the impression that Mr Albanese has spent a fair bit of time thinking about what went right and what went wrong with the previous ALP federal governments in his lifetime (and coalition governments too). His approach of seeking to govern for everyone reflects the best of Hawke and Menzies (and to some extent Rudd), and ties in with lines that have resonated before (like “Bob Hawke: Bringing Australians Together” in 1983, and John Howard’s “For all of us” in 1996). Basically, the electorate is sick of confected outrage, and wants problem solving; and he has picked up on that. By cultivating a reputation for being constructive and reliable, he will maximise the ALP’s chances of continuing to rule as a minority government if they lose a few seats and their majority in 2025.

  18. south at 10:50 pm
    “…

    Bombing civilians never, ever works. It work hardens soldiers and civilians alike.”

    It worked in August 1945.

  19. Pedant ,
    Well, the empire folded. The civilians would have kept fighting to the end. Having already kept up the fight through the firebombing campaign.

    I don’t think the Ukrainians will fold ever.

  20. south @ Sunday, December 4, 2022 at 10:50 pm:

    “ Macarthur,
    Bombing civilians never, ever works. It work hardens soldiers and civilians alike.”
    ==========================

    Yes, I smiled a little wryly at that part of Diane Francis’ piece myself. The London Blitz obviously, but also Vietnam, show this resilience is hardly “unique” to Ukrainians. But, the broader point still stands, as you say: Russia’s missile terror strategy right now is a complete loser militarily and shows up their military failure against Ukraine very clearly.

  21. Pedant – The argument could be made that the Japanese were more afraid of the Soviets who streaming into Manchuria at that stage than the bomb.
    But the bombing of Japan does seem to disprove the often made argument against strategic bombing – the Americans burnt down so many cities they were running out of targets in six months.

  22. Steve777 at 11:06 pm

    “The subtext of John Howard’s “For all of us” was “but not those deplorables over there…”.”

    I don’t remember it feeling that way at the time. That was more the approach he took with and after the Tampa business. I recall the 1996 slogan as an attempt to capitalise on the public perception that Mr Keating viewed those who disagreed with him as deplorables. But slogans like that are likely designed so that they can be interpreted in a number of different ways.

  23. ”…there ha[v]n’t been any new minister scandals.”

    A bit of a contrast to the early Howard era (to lose one Minister may be bad fortune, but six?) and even the early Hawke era (David Combe). No doubt the Liberal-Newscorp Dirt Units have been busy. They haven’t found anything, even a decade-old car accident or some wayward steps…

  24. Simon Benson in The Australian:
    “… popular support for Labor also lifting after delivering *controversial* industrial relations ­reforms …”

    There’s that gratuitous adjective again. Also heard on Their ABC, invariably grafted on to any mention of the IR legislation.

    Presumably it’s mandated by the Canberra Press Gallery’s style guide.

  25. MB: “… there hasn’t been any new minister scandals …”

    Oh, speaking of ministerial scandals …

    Robodebt royal commission hearings resume this week. In public, even!

    ScoMo scheduled for 14 December.

  26. Robodebt royal commission hearings resume this week. In public, even!

    ScoMo scheduled for 14 December.

    I predict self-serving word salad from Scotty from Ministries.

    However, look forward to the tussle between Her Honour and the professional politicians. 🙂

  27. May the LNP death spiral result in a rapid end.

    Ps.. it’s obvious that the Greens want to seize power by giving the vote to 12 year olds

  28. Newspoll steady. Essential looking good. Albo’s approval still riding high.

    Seems people feel the same way I do about the government: happy that the adults are in charge, the Morrison years are behind us, and finally we have our federal government showing leadership on important national issues instead of playing silly games and ducking for cover when the hard questions are asked.

    I’m very impressed with the government. It’s clearly a strong team, and Albanese has surprised me. I never thought he was capable of strong leadership, but there you go. I’m very pleased to have been proved wrong on that front.

  29. Whoosh! You’ve missed the point completely, Macca.

    The graphs show party support by birth year. Voters born around year 2000 are 30% Greens supporters.

  30. [‘Dubai: Protesters in Iran called on Sunday for a three-day strike this week, stepping up pressure on authorities after the public prosecutor said the morality police whose detention of a young woman triggered months of protests had been shut down.

    There was no confirmation of the closure from the Interior Ministry which is in charge of the morality police, and Iranian state media said Public Prosecutor Mohammad Jafar Montazeri was not responsible for overseeing the force.

    Top Iranian officials have repeatedly said Tehran would not change the Islamic Republic’s mandatory hijab policy, which requires women to dress modestly and wear headscarves, despite 11 weeks of protests against strict Islamic regulations.

    Hundreds of people have been killed in the unrest which erupted in September after the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Kurdish Iranian woman who was detained by the morality police for flouting the hijab rules.

    Protesters seeking to maintain their challenge to Iran’s clerical rulers have called for a three-day economic strike and a rally to Tehran’s Azadi (Freedom) Square on Wednesday, according to individual posts shared on Twitter by accounts unverified by Reuters.’]

    It’s wishful thinking that the Iranian inquisition will relent.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/iranian-prosecutor-says-morality-police-have-been-shut-down-20221205-p5c3l1.html

  31. ‘fess,
    Albanese comes across as the strong silent type to me. Though you have to imagine what sort of inner strength it took to come up from Public Housing with a Single Mum on the Disability Pension and then rise through the ranks of the ALP, in the Left faction, with your eye on the prize the whole time. And then to not have a sudden rush of blood to the head when you finally got there but to govern soberly.

    Not only that but I detect a new project for the PM. With the visit of Sanna Marin I think it’s speaking to the PM trying to build up a global coalition of democratic countries to counterbalance the Authoritarian Right. I’ll keep a watching brief on that one. But great idea if so.

  32. In a Voter De-Moronised country, People start voting in support of their own interests. Clearly, the majority perceives that Dutton and the Coalition are not into supporting the voters’ interests… Whose interests would the Coalition support, I reckon?

  33. Have there been enough Newspolls this quarter for them to be able to resume publishing their normal quarterly state-by-state breakdown? There may not have been enough polls during the Oct-Dec period to have accumulated sufficient sample sizes.

Comments Page 1 of 20
1 2 20

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *