Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor (open thread)

Newspoll records a surge in approval for Anthony Albanese with Labor maintaining its commanding position on voting intention.

The Australian reports what sounds like it will be the last Newspoll for the year has come in with the two-party preferred unchanged at 55-45 in favour of Labor 39% (up one), Coalition 35% (steady), Greens 11% (steady), One Nation 6% and United Australia Party 1%. Anthony Albanese’s approval rating is up three to a new high of 62% and down four on disapproval to 29%, and his lead over Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister has blown out from 54-27 to 59-24. Peter Dutton is respectively down three to 36% and one to 45%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1508.

In further federal polling news, I missed that Essential Research has snuck out its first set of voting intention numbers since the election, which it will hopefully now resume reporting regularly. Without excluding a 6% undecided component, this showed primary votes of Labor 33%, Coalition 31%, Greens 13% and others 6%, with the “2PP+” measure at Labor 51%, Coalition 43% and undecided 6%. The poll was conducted November 23 to 29 from a sample of 1042.

Note also the post immediately below from Adrian Beaumont on the US Senate run-off election for Georgia, which will unfold over the coming week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

999 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. nath @ #850 Tuesday, December 6th, 2022 – 5:30 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 5:27 pm

    I was disgusted in Minns supporting the imprisonment of Coco.
    __________
    Rex will you be making a submission that Coco spend her time of imprisonment under house arrest at your place?

    Hell no ..!

    She’d drive anyone loopy I reckon.

    Doesn’t mean she should be locked up in Goulbern Supermax though.

  2. I am so ancient that I have found myself wondering, as I observe some of the senior public servants at the RC, what people like Nugget Coombs and Jack Crawford would have thought of them and their approach to their functions.

  3. Holdenhillbilly says:
    Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 12:10 pm
    Did Sussssan toss her hair with contempt whilst making the statement?
    ——————————————————————————————

    She curled her lip …….. Oops, that’s her normal state.

  4. andrewmck says:
    Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 5:31 pm

    nath says:
    Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 5:21 pm
    …..But it is interesting to speculate where that 3.5 went to. The only parties that gained apart from VS were right wing parties and independents. (Reason went up 0.2)
    Is it possible that most of the 3.5 went to Labor, while a slice of Labor went to the Freedom Party etc leaving Labor relatively static. That’s what I suspect.
    *********
    I think that’s a reasonable suspicion. But the implied 3.5% shift from Greens to Labor really undermines the inevitable march of history argument.
    ____________
    arguments against the inevitable march of history went about after Melbourne fell, then after Prahan fell, after Brunswick fell, and now after Richmond fell. They will go on after Northcote too.

  5. Bennelong Lurker says:
    Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 5:36 pm
    I am so ancient that I have found myself wondering, as I observe some of the senior public servants at the RC, what people like Nugget Coombs and Jack Crawford would have thought of them and their approach to their functions.

    ________________________________________

    They also served their political masters. But those political masters wanted great things for Australia, not for their mates, their sponsors and themselves.

  6. nath says:
    Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 5:36 pm
    andrewmck says:
    Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 5:31 pm

    nath says:
    Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 5:21 pm
    …..arguments against the inevitable march of history went about after Melbourne fell, then after Prahan fell, after Brunswick fell, and now after Richmond fell. They will go on after Northcote too.
    **********
    It’s a bit like the Super ads. Past performance does not guarantee future earnings. We’ll see.

  7. Clough, one of the biggest engineering companies in Australia has gone into administration.

    Looking though their extensive project list, one class of energy infrastructure is missing – unless you count Turnbull’s other monumental waste of taxpayers money, Snowy 2.0

    https://www.cloughgroup.com/projects

  8. nath says:
    Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 5:47 pm
    I’m thinking of renting a warehouse in Northcote and moving a hundred hippies in there.
    ********
    Isn’t hippy another word for boomer? The children of the 60’s aren’t the Greens long suit.
    Add: Abbie Hoffman was right about the Hippies

  9. I can’t find any comment by Chris Minns supporting the imprisonment of Ms Coco, just him conitnuing to support the protest laws.

  10. Andrew Hastie thinks Australia should get its first subs built in USA.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/06/australias-first-nuclear-submarines-should-be-built-in-the-us-andrew-hastie-says

    Why does Hastie bother even talking about this? He knows nothing about subs. He was a junior army officer.

    The US admiral in charge of sub production has said this is impossible in the short term.

    Hastie then says Australia should invest in increasing US sub production. How? USA has been trying to increase sub production capacity for ten years, with little success in a tight Labor market.

    I am reminded of Dutton’s equally idiotic “buy them off the shelf” remark at NPC. There is no shelf. No country that can makeSSNs to the required standard has spare capacity to make them for us.

  11. south says:
    Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 1:56 pm
    It may have a down tempo tone, but there public servants at the Robodebt RC are dancing on the head of a pin to try and look like they know nothing. Frankly for the lack of exposition they are providing, these guys should all be black listed from working with government ever again. Really lightweight players IMO.
    ———————————————————————————————

    An incurious department it would seem.

  12. Lawyers for Scott Morrison said his “reputation is on the line” as they argued the former prime minister should be able refer to secret cabinet documents when he takes the stand at the robodebt royal commission next week.

    James Renwick SC, counsel for Morrison, told the royal commission on Tuesday it would be difficult for his client to give “true, complete and correct evidence” without being able to refer to such documents.

    Renwick later expanded this to suggest that Morrison would not be able to properly defend himself from criticism without the use of such documents.

    There are several glaring flaws in this argument ahead of Morrison’s ‘Come to Jesus’ moment at the RoboDebt Royal Commission next Wednesday.

    1. Scomo’s reputation is not ‘on the line’, rather it is trashed through being resoundingly thrown out on his wallet in May 2022 by the Australian Public. And a conga line of former associates lining up to put the boot in. Et tu, Spud?

    2. Despite Scomo’s fear that this is a RC into him, it’s not actually. He is not accused of anything. He does not have to ‘properly defend himself’. Rather, all he needs is to give a truthful account of his state of mind when he instituted the scheme. The Commish will decide whether any of her findings needs to move along the legal process.

    3. The implied claim of lack of natural justice is, frankly, laughable. Maybe a plebiscite of those shafted by Morrison’s time in Immigration/Border Force or his oversight of the Bernard Collaery/Witness K matter could support his claim for ‘natural justice’?

  13. ‘the other barney says:
    Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 5:25 pm

    Boerwar
    agree but 30,000 japanese defeated 120,000 empire troops. yes equipment and air power were inadequate but competent leadership could have saved the situation. as it was responses were always piecemeal and inadequate to the task at hand. it would be interesting to see whether and how much anglo stereotyping of asians gave them a false sense of superiority’
    ========================================
    I was going to add class divisions and racism as contributory factors to an already long list.

    I will now add the fact that large numbers of the troops came from India. While some fought well, in general they did not fight well. And why would they? Substantial numbers subsequently joined the Opposition.

    Had they had a competent CIC in charge from, say, 1935 until the start of the Pacific War they might have managed to delay the inevitable.

    The reality is that all the officers with get up and go got up and went well before the Japanese arrived.

  14. Barney in Cherating @ #857 Tuesday, December 6th, 2022 – 5:40 pm

    Player One @ #853 Tuesday, December 6th, 2022 – 2:32 pm

    Barney in Cherating @ #837 Tuesday, December 6th, 2022 – 5:22 pm

    Why would teal candidates be threat to Labor if Labor continues to implement legislation that the current teal independents largely agree with and support?

    You mean like Labor’s Zero Ambition climate change policy?

    Yep.

    If you think the Teals are supporting Labor’s Zero Ambition policies, you’re dreaming. This from a recent speech by Byron Fay, Chief Executive of Climate 200:

    The major parties learned some tough lessons this election.
    No longer can they consider a seat as “safe” and take it for granted.
    No longer can MPs just vote as their party tells them to, without thought as to
    what their communities actually want.
    The two-party system turned on its head.
    No longer can we assume the main choice for voters will be between the ALP
    and LNP.
    This election, nearly a third of us didn’t vote for the major parties.
    In 1951 … just 2% of voters did so.
    The party stranglehold on Australian politics has been shattered.
    A well-organised community with the right support can take on the party
    machines and win. Even against former and would-be future Prime Ministers.
    This result was a launch pad, not a landing zone.
    Now the real work begins.
    The uncomfortable truth is that the world is still on track for catastrophic levels
    of warming.
    Climate 200’s vision is for every government in Australia to adopt a science-
    based response to the climate crisis.
    We’re still miles away from that.
    Neither major party’s 2030 targets are consistent with keeping warming to
    safe levels.
    The LNP’s target is consistent with 3 degrees.
    The ALP’s consistent with 2.
    Even at 2 degrees, the Great Barrier Reef will be gone.
    An irreplaceable asset that supports more livelihoods than the coal industry:
    64 thousand jobs and a 6.4 billion dollar benefit to the economy … all gone.
    But that’s just the start. As University of Melbourne research has found, 2
    degrees would cost Australia’s economy close to $600 billion by 2030 and
    nearly $800 billion by 2050.
    The recent floods in Northwest Sydney are just the latest of what are
    becoming scarily regular reminders that the climate crisis is not going away.
    And, as the insufficiency of our governments’ efforts to address the problem
    becomes clearer, the calls to take stronger action will grow louder.

    The thing is … the Teals are prepared to work with Labor, but they have much more ambition for Labor than Labor has for itself. Labor can choose to increase their level of ambition, or get out of the way.

    Climate 200’s next campaign objective is to make the policies they believe in (climate, integrity and gender equality) proof against the whims of our tainted two-party system. To do that, they want to double the number of Teal Independents in parliament. To do that, they will be targeting seats held by both major parties.

    I reckon they have a decent chance. Which is lucky, because given how little time we have left (about 5 years) it may be our last.

  15. Barney in Cherating says:
    Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 6:12 pm
    sprocket,

    The other flaw is that Morrison has a reputation to defend.

    Also, as usual, it’s all about Morrison.
    中华人民共和国
    Who is this Morrison fellow you guys are talking about?

  16. Upnorth @ #878 Tuesday, December 6th, 2022 – 3:17 pm

    Barney in Cherating says:
    Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 6:12 pm
    sprocket,

    The other flaw is that Morrison has a reputation to defend.

    Also, as usual, it’s all about Morrison.
    中华人民共和国
    Who is this Morrison fellow you guys are talking about?

    A wonderful, selfless human being.

  17. Barney in Cherating says:
    Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 6:19 pm
    Upnorth @ #878 Tuesday, December 6th, 2022 – 3:17 pm

    Barney in Cherating says:
    Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 6:12 pm
    sprocket,

    The other flaw is that Morrison has a reputation to defend.

    Also, as usual, it’s all about Morrison.
    中华人民共和国
    Who is this Morrison fellow you guys are talking about?
    A wonderful, selfless human being.
    中华人民共和国
    🙂 🙂

  18. If the Teals increase their numbers at the next Federal election, it will be at the expense of the Liberals, not Labor.

    However, the Victorian election suggests there’s a real possibility of Teal numbers falling at the next Federal election – when the government is delivering what people want (not what some people think people want) the ground isn’t fertile for Teal/indie movements.

  19. zoomster @ #881 Tuesday, December 6th, 2022 – 6:26 pm

    If the Teals increase their numbers at the next Federal election, it will be at the expense of the Liberals, not Labor.

    However, the Victorian election suggests there’s a real possibility of Teal numbers falling at the next Federal election – when the government is delivering what people want (not what some people think people want) the ground isn’t fertile for Teal/indie movements.

    Labor conceding to Indy amendments will appeal to Teal voters.

  20. zoomster @ #877 Tuesday, December 6th, 2022 – 6:26 pm

    If the Teals increase their numbers at the next Federal election, it will be at the expense of the Liberals, not Labor.

    However, the Victorian election suggests there’s a real possibility of Teal numbers falling at the next Federal election – when the government is delivering what people want (not what some people think people want) the ground isn’t fertile for Teal/indie movements.

    I agree Victoria was disappointing. Only a 6% decline in Labor vote, and only a 7% rise in Greens and Others. Not enough to shift more than a few actual seats. But then the Teals are about federal issues, not state issues. Even so, I expect they will do better in the NSW election, where both major parties vie for the title of “least electable”.

    EDIT: Currently about a 7% rise in Greens and Others, not 8% – but counting is not finished yet.

  21. zoomster @ #883 Tuesday, December 6th, 2022 – 6:31 pm

    Rex

    Labor doing what Labor intends to do will appeal to Teal voters.

    It might even result in Labor picking up a couple of seats presently held by Teals.

    Teal voters voted for Teal influence on legislation, which has been delivered. There’s no logical reason they’d abandon this strategy.

  22. Upnorth @ #874 Tuesday, December 6th, 2022 – 6:17 pm

    Who is this Morrison fellow you guys are talking about?

    He is a person with defective mental capacity who professes to believe that the entire universe(s) was brought into being about 7,000 years ago by a sky fairy that was invented by the leaders of a tribe of nomadic middle-eastern sheep herders about 4,500 years ago. He says he believes that all decisions, on any matter at all, should be arrived at in full recognition of that ‘fact’, and the ‘fact’ that said sky fairy is going to subject Earth to destruction sometime ‘soon’, at which time ‘believers’ like himself are going to fly into the sky, while all non-believers will be subjected to ‘eternal torment’.

    Proven ideal Prime Minister material, as carefully selected by the Liberal and National party coalition, and endorsed by Rupert Murdoch, the Australian MSM, and in 2019, the Australian voting public. That’s politics for you.

  23. Historyintime at 5.54 pm

    It is the law that Minns et. al. supported that is the problem, not just the magistrate.

    See: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/06/documents-reveal-scramble-to-rubber-stamp-nsw-bill-targeting-climate-protests

    The law is in breach of article 21 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, ratified by Australia in August 1980:

    “Article 21
    The right of peaceful assembly shall be recognized. No restrictions may be placed on the exercise of this right other than those imposed in conformity with the law and which are necessary in a democratic society in the interests of national security or public safety, public order (ordre public), the protection of public health or morals or the protection of the rights and freedoms of others.”

    The public health measures introduced to mitigate Covid (now abandoned) clearly complied with that article. The Perrottet/Minns restriction on the right to protest does not. It is tweedledum knee-jerk authoritarianism done for populist effect.

  24. Socrates,
    The Abrams have export controls on them. We can’t give them away. The m113’s I agree with. We should donate the whole fleet. And about 100 more bushy’s. Add in a MAG58 and 50cal per vehicle and 3 time that in ammo and that’ll be a good start for a winter arms package to get good use in the liberation of Crimea.

  25. Sprocket

    “Lawyers for Scott Morrison said his “reputation is on the line” as they argued the former prime minister should be able refer to secret cabinet documents when he takes the stand at the robodebt royal commission next week.”

    It would be appalling if Morrison’s lawyers succeeded in this stunt. What has reputation got to do with anything in an RC? Look at the hounding and attempted trashing of the reputations of Gillard and Shorten in past RCs. No latitude was given even though Shorten, like Scomo, was still in parliament.

    Going back even further, I remember as a young graduate following the Fitzgerald RC into corruption in parliament, which laid waste to half a dozen political careers, including Premier Joh’s. No quarter was given then, and correctly so, or they would never have gotten to the bottom of the police racket.

    If this claim succeeds, Labor needs to sack whoever drafted the terms and powers of the RC.

  26. South

    “The Abrams have export controls on them. ”

    Yes and obviously we should ask the Americans for permission. We are talking to them all the time at present about defense technology exports so that should not be difficult.

    I agree with your other comments about sending all the M113s plus weapons and ammo.

  27. Look at the hounding and attempted trashing of the reputations of Gillard and Shorten in past RCs. No latitude was given even though Shorten, like Scomo, was still in parliament.

    As you would expect, it would be the case that Bill Shorten has been watching the RC every day and would realise this as well. And would not allow Scott Morrison and his lawyer from Clayton Utz, for the Liberals as usual, to get away with this laugh out loud line.

  28. The Greens will be fortunate if they can maintain around 11%.

    Their bastardry with respect to the Voice is IMO a slow-burn issue and will resonate with youth.

  29. Socrates @ #546 Tuesday, December 6th, 2022 – 6:43 pm

    South

    “The Abrams have export controls on them. ”

    Yes and obviously we should ask the Americans for permission. We are talking to them all the time at present about defense technology exports so that should not be difficult.

    I agree with your other comments about sending all the M113s

    Isn’t AusMin on this weekend?

  30. Add Kursk to the list of targets in Russia being hit by Ukraine. It seems Ukraine is trying out a new front in this war of defence against Russian genocide against them. Best of success to them, as they start accelerating these attacks!

    “ A researcher at the investigative news outlet Bellingcat has posted video showing smoke rising from Kursk, Russia, where Ukraine launched strikes damaging an oil storage tank, according to the local governor on Telegram.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/dec/06/russia-ukraine-war-live-drone-attack-hits-kursk-airfield-in-russia-says-governor-further-strikes-in-zaporizhzhia-region

  31. ‘Dr Doolittle says:
    Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 6:36 pm

    Historyintime at 5.54 pm

    It is the law that Minns et. al. supported that is the problem, not just the magistrate.

    See: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/06/documents-reveal-scramble-to-rubber-stamp-nsw-bill-targeting-climate-protests

    The law is in breach of article 21 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, ratified by Australia in August 1980:

    “Article 21
    The right of peaceful assembly shall be recognized. No restrictions may be placed on the exercise of this right other than those imposed in conformity with the law and which are necessary in a democratic society in the interests of national security or public safety, public order (ordre public), the protection of public health or morals or the protection of the rights and freedoms of others.”

    The public health measures introduced to mitigate Covid (now abandoned) clearly complied with that article. The Perrottet/Minns restriction on the right to protest does not. It is tweedledum knee-jerk authoritarianism done for populist effect.’
    ================================
    The right to drive to work and earn a crust without being bastardized by Cookers, etc, is an important human right, I would have thought. There is nothing particularly peaceful about obstructing the free movement of others.

  32. HOLY CR*P: Trump Just Lied that He DID NOT Say to ‘Terminate’ the Constitution – Which He Def Said

    https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/12/5/2140187/-CRYBABY-TRUMP-Doubles-Down-on-His-Constitution-Bashing-and-Misquotes-Himself-to-Gaslight-His-Cult

    ” Trump is now lashing out the media for reporting verbatim what he said. He wrote…

    The Fake News is actually trying to convince the American People that I said I wanted to ‘terminate’ the Constitution. This is simply more DISINFORMATION & LIES, just like RUSSIA, RUSSIA, RUSSIA, and all of their other HOAXES & SCAMS. What I said was that when there is ‘MASSIVE & WIDESPREAD FRAUD & DECEPTION,’ as has been irrefutably proven in the 2020 Presidential Election, steps must be immediately taken to RIGHT THE WRONG. Only FOOLS would disagree with that and accept STOLEN ELECTIONS. MAGA!”

  33. Sadly, those thousands on Sydney motorists wanting to get to work, being delayed for hours from important medical appointments, visit to loved ones, sitting in Uber’s and taxis in gridlock with the meter running – are not going to give a rat’s arse about Coco getting thrown in the slammer.

    And they will give even less to any party who actively gives succour to the Climate Extinction disruptive protests.

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