Click here for full Victorian election results updated live.
Friday, December 8
The last in doubt seat was determined in Labor’s favour today, with the preference distribution in Bass showing Labor incumbent Jordan Crugnale the winner with 20,803 votes (50.24%) over 20,601 (49.76%) for Liberal candidate Alan Brown. Labor thus emerges with 56 lower house seats, up one from their total in 2018; the Liberals on 19, down two, and the Nationals on nine, up three, with one or the other presumably to win Narracan when the supplementary election is held; the Greens four, up one; and independents from three to zero.
In the upper house count, the ABC’s projected margin for Transport Matters incumbent Rod Barton over Aiv Puglielli of the Greens at the final count for North-Eastern Metropolitan has narrowed to 16.95% to 16.38%, at which point the Greens could be confident that below-the-line votes would win them the seat. Barton is also a hair’s breadth away from exclusion behind Sustainable Australia at an earlier point in the count.
Thursday, December 8
Labor chalked up another win today when the button was pressed on Pakenham, revealing that their candidate Emma Vulin prevailed over David Farrelly of the Liberals at the last by 19,587 (50.39%) to 19,280 (49.61%). That gets Labor to 55 seats, which most likely will get to 56 when the button is pressed tomorrow on Bass, barring the emergence of some as yet undetected anomaly that up-ends the 211 vote margin on the two-candidate preferred count.
Wednesday, December 7
The preference distribution for Pakenham, earlier promised for today, will now be finalised tomorrow according to the VEC. That remains the only seat in doubt now that Northcote is decided for Labor, although I note that the ABC still rates Bass, where Labor leads by 211, as in doubt. There too the VEC is promising a preference distribution tomorrow. The preference distribution in Preston established that independent Gaetano Greco did not in fact make the final count, at which Labor retained the seat ahead of the Greens by a margin of 2.1%.
Tuesday, December 6
A preference distribution has been run for Northcote, which I believe was conducted electronically, with Labor incumbent Kat Theophanous making it over the line at the final count with 21,413 votes (50.22%) to Greens candidate Campbell Gome’s 21,229 (49.78%). The VEC site says “a recheck is taking place for this district”, but the ABC reports the figures as final.
In the other yet-to-be-called seat, Pakenham, Antony Green relates that the re-check of first preferences has shown up anomalies that will put Labor ahead when corrected, with the published results remaining those of the initial count. This involved an increase in the number of votes designated informal, which cut 274 from the Liberal primary vote tally compared with 111 from Labor’s. The difference is sufficient to cancel out the Liberals’ 90 vote lead on the two-candidate preferred count, though not so handily that you would rule out further anomalies tipping the result back the other way. The matter will seemingly be clarified when a full preference distribution is conducted tomorrow. Should the result go Labor’s way, they will have repeated their feat from 2018 of winning 55 seats, despite a statewide two-party swing that looks to be in excess of 3%.
Monday, December 5
My previous update dropped the ball with respect to Northcote, where a 1523-994 break on absent votes brought the Greens right back into contention. Labor now leads by 189 with the outstanding vote likely to consist of around 1500 postals, of which the latest batch broke an even 123-123, and a handful of provisionals.
The Liberals have opened a 90 vote lead in Pakenham, after the latest early votes broke 450-356 and postals broke 80-67, outweighing a 208-189 break to Labor on absents. There are still about 1500 postals to be accounted for, and since these have broken 51-49 in favour of the Liberals so far, this seems assured to remain close.
Mornington continues to edge out of reach of independent candidate Kate Lardner, with absents (349-338), early votes (268-203) and postals (110-102) all breaking slightly the way of Liberal candidate Chris Crewther, whose lead is out from 491 votes to 575. My results system is now calling it for Crewther, leaving only Northcote and Pakenham in doubt.
In the upper house count, second Liberal candidate Joe McCracken’s position in Western Victoria has strengthened appreciably, leaving him a likely winner over Stuart Grimley of Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party. The Greens and Legalise Cannabis remain in a race for a third left-wing seat, with Labor and now Liberal on course for two seats each.
Sunday, December 4
There are probably three lower house seats that are still in real doubt, not counting Narracan which will presumably be won by the Liberals or Nationals. This gets Labor to 54 seats with a best case scenario of 56; the Coalition to 26 with a best case scenario of 29; the Greens to four; and one outside possibility for an independent.
The most remarkable of the close races is Pakenham which was tied as of Friday, before Liberal candidate David Farrelly opened up a three-vote lead after a batch of absents were added over the weekend. Farrelly held a 220 vote lead mid-week before postals broke 964-781 to Labor and early votes did so by 457-420.
Labor holds a 285 lead in Bass, out from 53 after favourable results on early vote (1768-1643), absents (539-438) and recent batches of postals (826-820). Postals, of which the first batch broke strongly to the Liberals but more recent arrivals have been neutral, should account for most of the remainder, although there may also be significant numbers of outstanding absents.
Liberal candidate Chris Crewther’s lead over independent Kate Lardner in Mornington is now at 491 votes, out from 353, after postals favoured him 751-717 and early votes did so 413-329. The former were less strong for Crewther than earlier postals, of which at least 3000 yet to come. Together with the fact that further absents are likely outstanding, this means Crewther can’t be considered home and hosed quite yet, though he is clearly a short-priced favourite
Elsewhere, Paul Mercurio is probably home for Labor in Hastings, his lead out from 659 to 803 after the lastest postals broke 151-116 his way and absents broke 290-221. Labor’s lead over the Greens in Northcote is down from 874 to 781 after a batch of early votes favoured the Greens 1645-1454, outweighing an 832-734 break to Labor on the latest postals.
Now, finally, to the upper house, where the ABC is currently projecting a final result of Labor 15, Coalition 13, Legalise Cannabis three, Greens two and (deep breath) Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party, Liberal Democrats, Animal Justice, Shooters Fishers and Farmers, Transport Matters, the Democratic Labour Party and One Nation on one each. However, the ABC projections assume all votes are above-the-line and duly follow the group voting tickets, which likely means an over-estimation of the number of micro-party winners. To deal with the eight regions in turn, all links below being to the ABC projections:
North-Eastern Metropolitan. Labor and the Liberals will clearly win two apiece, but the last seat could go either to the Greens or the beneficiary or the micro-party preference network, which on current numbers is projected to be Transport Matters but they come close to dropping out at a number of points in the count. Other contenders could be the Liberal Democrats and the DLP, although I would imagine below-the-line leakage would be such that their collective chances are weaker than the ABC projection indicates.
Eastern Victoria. The Liberals and Nationals have a clear two quotas and Labor one, and Labor’s surplus is well clear of what the Greens can muster, ensuring the latter drops out and elects Labor’s second candidate with a substantial surplus of left-wing votes. These then ensure that the final seat goes to Shooters Fishers and Farmers rather than One Nation.
Northern Metropolitan. Two Labor, one Liberal and one Greens candidate each stand to be elected with little surplus to spare. This makes the final seat a question of whether a right-wing preference bloc elects Adem Somyurek of the DLP, or left-wing bloc (Victorian Socialists, Legalise Cannabis and Animal Justice) elects Fiona Patten of Reason, with the former seeming increasingly more likely as the count progresses.
Northern Victoria. The Coalition has two quotas and Labor has one with a big surplus. Beyond that, it seems clear that One Nation will emerge the beneficiaries of a right-wing preference snowball that will push them from 3.75% all the way to a quota, and that Animal Justice will win a seat out of the Druery preference network they ultimately reneged on, soaking up preferences from Sack Dan Andrews, Health Australia, Derryn Hinch’s Justice, the Liberal Democrats, as well as the left-wing surplus from Victorian Socialists, Reason, Legalise Cannabis and ultimately the Greens.
South-Eastern Metropolitan. Labor has two seats with about 0.4 quotas to spare and the Liberals one plus about 0.6. Labor’s surplus plus the Greens’ 0.4 quotas will elect Legalise Cannabis, leaving the final seat a tight race between the second Liberal and the Liberal Democrats.
Southern Metropolitan. This seems straightforward: the Liberals win a clear two seats without much to spare, Labor falls just short of a second quota on first preferences and the Greens just short of a first, with both of the latter absorbing enough preferences to push them over their respective lines.
Western Metropolitan. Labor will win two seats with about a quarter of a quota to spare and the Liberals one with about a half. The latter two seats then develop as parallel races between the Greens, Legalise Cannabis and Victorian Socialists on the left, respectively at 8.10%, 7.45% and 7.13% at the relevant point of the count, and the second Liberal and the DLP on the right, who are respectively projected to end the count on 17.48% and 15.85%.
Western Victoria. Labor has two seats and about a quarter of a quota to spare, and the Coalition one and a bit more than half. That leaves enough left-wing votes for a third seat that could go to Legalise Cannabis or the Greens, with the former projected to emerge 11.72% to 9.57% clear after one-way traffic on preferences from Reason, Animal Justice and Labor. Most of the ensuing surplus transfer then goes to Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party, who are then projected to win the final seat over the second Liberal by 17.45% to 15.88%, although this could seemingly go either way.
For an election that was supposed to see a mass of Independents being competitive, it was really a non-result. Despite what rent-a-quote Kos Samaras said the shift really did not happen.
The number of non-classical 2CP counts:
2 Nationals vs IND (Mildura, Shepparton) won by Nationals
2 Liberals vs IND (Mornington, Benambra) won by Liberals
3 Green vs Labor (Brunswick, Melbourne, Richmond) won by Greens
3 Labor vs Green (Footscray, Northcote, Pascoe Vale) won by Labor
1 Green vs Liberal (Prahran) won by Green
And maybe Mulgrave was a Labor vs IND won by Labor but as Andrews got more than 50% of the primary there was no need for a disruption of preferences. Counting Mulgrave, it is 12 out of 87 (13.7%); far less than the 27 out of 151 (17.8%) in the federal election.
The distributions in Richmond (now out) make it highly likely that the seat was swung to the Greens by the Liberals. At the 3CP stage you had:
8370 Liberal
17070 Green
14291 Labor
The Liberal preferences then split 5702-2668 to the Greens. Reverse that preference ordering and you would get a final result of Labor 19993-Greens 19738.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/12/05/victorian-election-late-counting-week-two/comment-page-6/#comment-4026204
Warragul and Drouin have had significant tree change population growth, although they seem to be more Liberal leaning tree changers than South Barwon.
It’s interesting looking at the regional cities across Australia.
In Victoria, the medium cities of Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo are decidedly Labor, but the next biggest city of Shepparton, and the Latrobe Valley, are conservative to the core. That being said, the Victorian National Party is a lot less rabidly right-wing than its federal counterparts. I don’t think that there is any prospect of either of these moving toward the centre in the foreseeable future.
That being said, the Sunshine Coast of Queensland has being trending purple, at least at a state level. This is the only other example I can see to this effect across the nation.
Max:
That’s already happened – just to Bass, not Narracan. The last redistribution moved Bass out of the metro area and Labor still managed to win it. The only time in the past Labor has even come close is when Pakenham was in Bass (the old Gippsland West was a safe Lib seat).
If the combined Gippsland seats (Gipps E, Gipps S, Morwell, Narracan) need to expand, it’ll probably be the south end of Bass (around Wonthaggi) that goes first. That area would go to Gippsland South, which would then pull Narracan south, not west (the Korumburra / Leongatha area). Narracan’s further west than it used to be since losing Moe, but it’ll stay rural for a long time to come.
Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo remain Labor-leaning cities partly because of the Regional Rail Project initiated by the Bracks/Brumby government of 1999-2010. They invested heavily into these cities and it’s paid off very well for them electorally.
While they also attempted the same for the La Trobe Valley, with upgrading the railway to Traralgon, that’s been offset by the fact that Labor wants to move away from the coal industry, so that’s made them turn more to the Nationals.
As for Shepparton, it’s a bit too far away from Melbourne for its voters to be linked to the goings-on of the capital. It’s a lot like Orange in NSW or Mount Gambier in SA in this regard.
Although for the life of me I still don’t understand Toowoomba in Queensland. It’s bigger than Ballarat and Bendigo and about the same distance away from Brisbane as the Victorian cities are from Melbourne, yet it is a very solidly LNP city.
Fruit growers hate unions/love cheap labour.
Paul Thomassays:
Friday, December 9, 2022 at 4:07 pm
But what happens if you use 50-50 as the share.
I.e no change from what they had without the Liberal preferences
Kirsdarke: Brisbane is the most conservative capital city in Australia. I lived there for two years and saw it for myself. Even inner city Brisbane is only about as “liberal” as white mid-suburbia in Sydney such as Revesby or Panania1. The Gold Coast is even more conservative than Toowoomba. I’m not surprised in the least.
Toowoomba is my hometown and Kirsdake you are so right, Toowoomba is a very conservative town. Why? I suspect many reasons, and a population with suspicious minds about anything, which is fertile ground for conservative actors to sow seeds of doubt about anything they wish to disallow or deny. I still have family living there including my mother who has become quite ‘bolshie’ in her later years which doesn’t sit well with her bridge group in that city. Mind you Toowoomba North, the state seat, has returned Labor members to state parliament since the demise of Joh though this usually happens only in the event of a Labor high tide. Perhaps the geographical range upon which Toowoomba sits aside, and in parts is built upon is a better barrier to progressive influence than even I realize.
Hi Trent. I would like to thank you for all your contributions to this site during and after this Victorian election campaign. I have found your analyses to be very informative and inciteful. I’m not a Greens supporter so much but that doesn’t matter, you delivered your commentary in my opinion in an unbiased and professional way. Thank-you.
P.s. I’m still concerned whether or not Jeremy took his own much flogged advice to bet his own house on the recent result…….
Tweet from Antony Green stating that Labor has claimed victory in Bass. Hopefully results to follow shortly.
I agree with that notion. I’ve enjoyed Trent’s contributions to this blog over the election. Thank you, Trent, for putting that effort in.
And I extend that thanks to everyone else who made constructive conversation about the election results. Psephology can be a pretty fun subject if we can keep the blood-heating politics out of it.
Antony not proof read his tweet?
@ Dr John
Apparently not, but he has followed up with this correction.
MelbourneMammoth says:
“Kirsdarke: Brisbane is the most conservative capital city in Australia.”
3 of the 10 Federal electorates across Greater Brisbane are held by the Greens.
I also would like to thank Trent for his informative and unbiased analysis throughout the process of this state election. His insights and level headed approach have been very helpful throughout.
I’m doing updates on a bus from Canberra to Sydney. Cut me some slack.
Ah, all understood then, Antony. Also thank you for your coverage of this election too.
Haha
Mr green you don’t need to be cut any slack ,your words are gospel
So PBers back in your box please.
Antony – Is the ABC budget that bad that they made you take the bus? That is a disgrace. Ita should have sent the chopper for you.
Antony Green says:
Friday, December 9, 2022 at 6:51 pm
I’m doing updates on a bus from Canberra to Sydney. Cut me some slack.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Your bus seat is in doubt.
A chopper! Surely Antony deserves no less than a personal Learjet!
”
Antony Greensays:
Friday, December 9, 2022 at 6:51 pm
I’m doing updates on a bus from Canberra to Sydney. Cut me some slack.
”
Sometimes You can be very funny Mr. Green. 🙂
Snappy Tom,
I’m sorry but your logic is fallacious. If sovereignty was ‘never ceded’ then logically it stands to reason that all subsequent allocations of land were illegal. Is my house on aboriginal land or the crowns? Simple question. Of course, aboriginals had no system of land ownership comparable to the British. They had small tribal areas with no overarching property rights. It was only when western cartographers arrived that Australia as a geographical entity was recognizable. No aboriginal person had the faintest idea how big Australia was. I ask, who would the British ask as to who has responsibility for Australian land? There was no one. No Titles Office that’s for sure.
Ven, Snappy, MABWM, Mr Money, I know how much you want to hear about my lunch so I’m happy to oblige. You’ll be pleased to know that our brunch was both scrumptious and delightful. Of course, my date was the real highlight. She was witty, sophisticated, full of amusing anecdotes and had a fine line of Dan jokes. Quite charming and even though I’m a gentleman, very, very sexy. Why is it that right wing girls are so hot compared to their left wing equivalents? Sure, personal hygiene is important, as is being well dressed. Have yet to find a classy, left wing lady. I guess men don’t like being preached at with shouted cliches. That’s always a mood killer.
I thank the contributions of Trent for Victorian election. They were insightful.
Trent
Don’t you worry about ClemAttle.
I reckon For him anybody to the right of Senator John Faulkner is right wing.
Toowoomba is a great place to have a lamington or even better, a vanilla slice.
It’s no place for a person from most minority groups, but an Afrikaner exchange student I knew from high school moved there in recent years. He bought a farm near there and raises a family. He is very happy there as I expected.
Mr Green gives Bass to Labor. 202 votes in the end. 56 seats for Labor.
Ven says:
Friday, December 9, 2022 at 7:20 pm
I thank the contributions of Trent for Victorian election. They were insightful.
Trent
Don’t you worry about ClemAttle.
I reckon For him anybody to the right of Senator John Faulkner is right wing.
中华人民共和国
Don’t worry about old Clem. A sheep in Sheep’s Clothing Churchill once said.
What is it about the religious nutter folk that they always think that they’re experts in history, sociology, anthropology, and biology? They are by every statistical measure, less educated, especially about these subjects, than the people they insist on arguing with. And yet here we are.
Great result in Vic. The crazies got most of a belting. The loss by newscorp was especially pleasing. Shame about Patten.
Upnorth @ #328 Friday, December 9th, 2022 – 7:42 pm
Narracan would be the cherry on top.
Pi @ 8.23
As my grandmother was wont to say, empty vessels make the most sound.
Much easier to talk than listen or think sadly.
Note From The Editor
How did we go in the election campaign?
Premier Daniel Andrews and his new cabinet on Monday. If the ALP wins the seat of Bass it will have gained more seats than at the 2018 election.
We may not have got everything right, but as the dust settles on the Victorian election, I’m proud of the depth and breadth and innovative approach of our coverage.
Can you believe this from the age……
Talk about FIGJAM…..
Thanks marco, Kirksdarke, J J Hall and Ven. 🙂 I’m glad you found my ponderings interesting and insightful, psephology can indeed be a “fascinating” topic! I felt a lot of posters provided a lot of really interesting insights and thank them too, particularly Kirksdarke often brought up angles or insights that hadn’t even crossed my mind and helped me to see a different perspective.
Very happy to see 56 seats confirmed for Labor now, and a very strong electoral map to go with it.
Now we wait anxiously for the upper house results to be finalised, and am shattered that Patten looks like she’ll be gone. If she lost to the Socialists I wouldn’t mind so much, but the abhorrent DLP, ugh.
Hi Trent, will you be delving into the N.S.W. state election next year to the same depth as you have for this year’s Victorian, or do you specialize only in Victorian psephology?
At least Finn’s gone.
Somyurek is equally bad, but a different kind of bad. I don’t really understand how he fits into the DLP, other than being bitter at Labor.
He has literally nothing to offer parliament beyond his vendetta.
And ladies and gentleman, this is precisely why the electoral system needs changing. You can’t legislative fairness, but you can make it fairer. A proportional representation system like thr upper house without group-voting tickets would be ideal.
Why should a party who got a 4% swing against it pick up 1 seat? Similar thing happend in 1996, a decent swing against the Kennett government but the seat count didn’t really change. Almost 1/20 Victorians switched their preference from Labor being higher than Liberal, for them to be lower at this election, yet it didn’t translate in terms of seats. This needs correction, desperately.
Of course any change to the system should go to a referendum first.
Perfect victory anthem for Somyurek’s campaign.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6R4ZOYLMlI
Kirsdarkesays:
Friday, December 9, 2022 at 11:05 pm
Perfect victory anthem for Somyurek’s campaign
________
Cheese and whiskers!
”
TropicalWonderlandsays:
Friday, December 9, 2022 at 9:41 pm
Pi @ 8.23
As my grandmother was wont to say, empty vessels make the most sound.
Much easier to talk than listen or think sadly.
”
Or
Does Gold vessel make sound like Brass vessel?
Ven wrote, “Don’t you worry about ClemAttle.
I reckon For him anybody to the right of Senator John Faulkner is right wing.”
No, just the likes of you!
Upnorth wrote, “Don’t worry about old Clem. A sheep in Sheep’s Clothing Churchill once said.”
Ha, ha, Churchill would have regretted that little gem in 1945, when Clem smashed him. Ha, ha.
Is nobody going to acknowledge the fact that Labor gaining a seat despite a 3% swing against them on the TPP isn’t representative and unfair?
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/12/05/victorian-election-late-counting-week-two/comment-page-7/#comment-4026625
Yes. Proportional representation, the only way for that to be prevented, would be fairer.
Daniel says:
Friday, December 9, 2022 at 10:57 pm
And ladies and gentleman, this is precisely why the electoral system needs changing. You can’t legislative fairness, but you can make it fairer. A proportional representation system like thr upper house without group-voting tickets would be ideal.
Why should a party who got a 4% swing against it pick up 1 seat? Similar thing happend in 1996, a decent swing against the Kennett government but the seat count didn’t really change. Almost 1/20 Victorians switched their preference from Labor being higher than Liberal, for them to be lower at this election, yet it didn’t translate in terms of seats. This needs correction, desperately.
Of course any change to the system should go to a referendum first.
——————————-
I would vote no.
Proportional representation is as bad as FPTP and is mostly only supported by the Greens because they can get seats without caring to represent the majority and the upper house has it and in all the time its existed most of its members have been invisible but they can when all they need is a small number of votes to get elected.
The Victorian election result was typical and the seat totals are a bit inflated by how well the ALP went in the eastern and southern suburbs and the regions but that’s where government is won or lost and why this election mirrors the 1988 election where the ALP won a string of eastern suburb and Frankston trainline seats.
GVT in the upper house needs to go, sure, we can agree on that.
I’m not convinced the lower house needs reforming – if anything, the single transferable vote model we use in Australia for federal and most state elections is better than the vast majority of systems out there…
Pure proportional representation makes the legislature kind of meaningless– the members don’t really represent anything. They’re just employees of the political parties. It also tends to create very disorganized legislatures.
Mixed proportional-representative systems are better, IMO, though I’d have a hard time picking the best one.
The proportional representation I like the most (not having done a lot of research on)
You rank the member of each party by the votes they got in their local election.
The number of each party is decided by the entire electorate but the ones who get in are decided by the ones with local support
On PR in the lower house. In a word, No.
Exaggerated majorities are a natural effect of the preferential system. One of the aims of this system is to produce governing majorities in order to maintain stability of government. Yes the government suffered a swing against but it still managed a 54% Tpp result, hence the strong result in representation.
This Labor government has delivered on its policy commitments and also benefits from an especially ineffectual opposition. If that situation changes there will be a coinciding change in the make up of the lower house.
The Greens are now repeating electoral success in certain seats, and that is indicative of demographic changes in those electorates. Labor will likely see a decline in representation in coming elections and may rely in future on the support of these Green members to hold onto power.
Further, the decline in Liberal representation in the metropolitan area is also reflective of a realignment taking place over successive elections. As others have suggested the Liberal brand is damaged and this is reflected in the results. It is really up to the Liberals to respond to this if there is to be any correction in their metropolitan representation.