Click here for full Victorian election results updated live.
Friday, December 8
The last in doubt seat was determined in Labor’s favour today, with the preference distribution in Bass showing Labor incumbent Jordan Crugnale the winner with 20,803 votes (50.24%) over 20,601 (49.76%) for Liberal candidate Alan Brown. Labor thus emerges with 56 lower house seats, up one from their total in 2018; the Liberals on 19, down two, and the Nationals on nine, up three, with one or the other presumably to win Narracan when the supplementary election is held; the Greens four, up one; and independents from three to zero.
In the upper house count, the ABC’s projected margin for Transport Matters incumbent Rod Barton over Aiv Puglielli of the Greens at the final count for North-Eastern Metropolitan has narrowed to 16.95% to 16.38%, at which point the Greens could be confident that below-the-line votes would win them the seat. Barton is also a hair’s breadth away from exclusion behind Sustainable Australia at an earlier point in the count.
Thursday, December 8
Labor chalked up another win today when the button was pressed on Pakenham, revealing that their candidate Emma Vulin prevailed over David Farrelly of the Liberals at the last by 19,587 (50.39%) to 19,280 (49.61%). That gets Labor to 55 seats, which most likely will get to 56 when the button is pressed tomorrow on Bass, barring the emergence of some as yet undetected anomaly that up-ends the 211 vote margin on the two-candidate preferred count.
Wednesday, December 7
The preference distribution for Pakenham, earlier promised for today, will now be finalised tomorrow according to the VEC. That remains the only seat in doubt now that Northcote is decided for Labor, although I note that the ABC still rates Bass, where Labor leads by 211, as in doubt. There too the VEC is promising a preference distribution tomorrow. The preference distribution in Preston established that independent Gaetano Greco did not in fact make the final count, at which Labor retained the seat ahead of the Greens by a margin of 2.1%.
Tuesday, December 6
A preference distribution has been run for Northcote, which I believe was conducted electronically, with Labor incumbent Kat Theophanous making it over the line at the final count with 21,413 votes (50.22%) to Greens candidate Campbell Gome’s 21,229 (49.78%). The VEC site says “a recheck is taking place for this district”, but the ABC reports the figures as final.
In the other yet-to-be-called seat, Pakenham, Antony Green relates that the re-check of first preferences has shown up anomalies that will put Labor ahead when corrected, with the published results remaining those of the initial count. This involved an increase in the number of votes designated informal, which cut 274 from the Liberal primary vote tally compared with 111 from Labor’s. The difference is sufficient to cancel out the Liberals’ 90 vote lead on the two-candidate preferred count, though not so handily that you would rule out further anomalies tipping the result back the other way. The matter will seemingly be clarified when a full preference distribution is conducted tomorrow. Should the result go Labor’s way, they will have repeated their feat from 2018 of winning 55 seats, despite a statewide two-party swing that looks to be in excess of 3%.
Monday, December 5
My previous update dropped the ball with respect to Northcote, where a 1523-994 break on absent votes brought the Greens right back into contention. Labor now leads by 189 with the outstanding vote likely to consist of around 1500 postals, of which the latest batch broke an even 123-123, and a handful of provisionals.
The Liberals have opened a 90 vote lead in Pakenham, after the latest early votes broke 450-356 and postals broke 80-67, outweighing a 208-189 break to Labor on absents. There are still about 1500 postals to be accounted for, and since these have broken 51-49 in favour of the Liberals so far, this seems assured to remain close.
Mornington continues to edge out of reach of independent candidate Kate Lardner, with absents (349-338), early votes (268-203) and postals (110-102) all breaking slightly the way of Liberal candidate Chris Crewther, whose lead is out from 491 votes to 575. My results system is now calling it for Crewther, leaving only Northcote and Pakenham in doubt.
In the upper house count, second Liberal candidate Joe McCracken’s position in Western Victoria has strengthened appreciably, leaving him a likely winner over Stuart Grimley of Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party. The Greens and Legalise Cannabis remain in a race for a third left-wing seat, with Labor and now Liberal on course for two seats each.
Sunday, December 4
There are probably three lower house seats that are still in real doubt, not counting Narracan which will presumably be won by the Liberals or Nationals. This gets Labor to 54 seats with a best case scenario of 56; the Coalition to 26 with a best case scenario of 29; the Greens to four; and one outside possibility for an independent.
The most remarkable of the close races is Pakenham which was tied as of Friday, before Liberal candidate David Farrelly opened up a three-vote lead after a batch of absents were added over the weekend. Farrelly held a 220 vote lead mid-week before postals broke 964-781 to Labor and early votes did so by 457-420.
Labor holds a 285 lead in Bass, out from 53 after favourable results on early vote (1768-1643), absents (539-438) and recent batches of postals (826-820). Postals, of which the first batch broke strongly to the Liberals but more recent arrivals have been neutral, should account for most of the remainder, although there may also be significant numbers of outstanding absents.
Liberal candidate Chris Crewther’s lead over independent Kate Lardner in Mornington is now at 491 votes, out from 353, after postals favoured him 751-717 and early votes did so 413-329. The former were less strong for Crewther than earlier postals, of which at least 3000 yet to come. Together with the fact that further absents are likely outstanding, this means Crewther can’t be considered home and hosed quite yet, though he is clearly a short-priced favourite
Elsewhere, Paul Mercurio is probably home for Labor in Hastings, his lead out from 659 to 803 after the lastest postals broke 151-116 his way and absents broke 290-221. Labor’s lead over the Greens in Northcote is down from 874 to 781 after a batch of early votes favoured the Greens 1645-1454, outweighing an 832-734 break to Labor on the latest postals.
Now, finally, to the upper house, where the ABC is currently projecting a final result of Labor 15, Coalition 13, Legalise Cannabis three, Greens two and (deep breath) Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party, Liberal Democrats, Animal Justice, Shooters Fishers and Farmers, Transport Matters, the Democratic Labour Party and One Nation on one each. However, the ABC projections assume all votes are above-the-line and duly follow the group voting tickets, which likely means an over-estimation of the number of micro-party winners. To deal with the eight regions in turn, all links below being to the ABC projections:
North-Eastern Metropolitan. Labor and the Liberals will clearly win two apiece, but the last seat could go either to the Greens or the beneficiary or the micro-party preference network, which on current numbers is projected to be Transport Matters but they come close to dropping out at a number of points in the count. Other contenders could be the Liberal Democrats and the DLP, although I would imagine below-the-line leakage would be such that their collective chances are weaker than the ABC projection indicates.
Eastern Victoria. The Liberals and Nationals have a clear two quotas and Labor one, and Labor’s surplus is well clear of what the Greens can muster, ensuring the latter drops out and elects Labor’s second candidate with a substantial surplus of left-wing votes. These then ensure that the final seat goes to Shooters Fishers and Farmers rather than One Nation.
Northern Metropolitan. Two Labor, one Liberal and one Greens candidate each stand to be elected with little surplus to spare. This makes the final seat a question of whether a right-wing preference bloc elects Adem Somyurek of the DLP, or left-wing bloc (Victorian Socialists, Legalise Cannabis and Animal Justice) elects Fiona Patten of Reason, with the former seeming increasingly more likely as the count progresses.
Northern Victoria. The Coalition has two quotas and Labor has one with a big surplus. Beyond that, it seems clear that One Nation will emerge the beneficiaries of a right-wing preference snowball that will push them from 3.75% all the way to a quota, and that Animal Justice will win a seat out of the Druery preference network they ultimately reneged on, soaking up preferences from Sack Dan Andrews, Health Australia, Derryn Hinch’s Justice, the Liberal Democrats, as well as the left-wing surplus from Victorian Socialists, Reason, Legalise Cannabis and ultimately the Greens.
South-Eastern Metropolitan. Labor has two seats with about 0.4 quotas to spare and the Liberals one plus about 0.6. Labor’s surplus plus the Greens’ 0.4 quotas will elect Legalise Cannabis, leaving the final seat a tight race between the second Liberal and the Liberal Democrats.
Southern Metropolitan. This seems straightforward: the Liberals win a clear two seats without much to spare, Labor falls just short of a second quota on first preferences and the Greens just short of a first, with both of the latter absorbing enough preferences to push them over their respective lines.
Western Metropolitan. Labor will win two seats with about a quarter of a quota to spare and the Liberals one with about a half. The latter two seats then develop as parallel races between the Greens, Legalise Cannabis and Victorian Socialists on the left, respectively at 8.10%, 7.45% and 7.13% at the relevant point of the count, and the second Liberal and the DLP on the right, who are respectively projected to end the count on 17.48% and 15.85%.
Western Victoria. Labor has two seats and about a quarter of a quota to spare, and the Coalition one and a bit more than half. That leaves enough left-wing votes for a third seat that could go to Legalise Cannabis or the Greens, with the former projected to emerge 11.72% to 9.57% clear after one-way traffic on preferences from Reason, Animal Justice and Labor. Most of the ensuing surplus transfer then goes to Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party, who are then projected to win the final seat over the second Liberal by 17.45% to 15.88%, although this could seemingly go either way.
“It is all relative. Hawthorn is a more progressive area than Bulleen for example and Pesutto is more progressive than Battin. What that means is if the Liberals were to run a candidate who for example believed in gay conversion therapy in Hawthorn they would lose and lose badly. It doesn’t mean they need to run a candidate who can sing the Internationale or has engaged in a tree sit in for land rights for whales. Everything is relative.
Moral relativism is absurd. He killed a person, yeah but it could have been worse, he didn’t kill ten people. He killed ten people, well it could have been worse… Next!
Adda says:
Thursday, December 8, 2022 at 4:46 pm
Re: Hawthorn, I have to disagree with not calling it a progressive seat, either in the social or economic sense. As pointed out by Kos, it has a rapidly expanding renting population that has turned it towards the left. Importantly, it only has a 1.7% margin when Labor seemed to basically give up on it this election for a Pesutto vs Lowe fight
———————————-
The renter population is there but Kos overstates its growth because unlike Richmond Melbourne Albert Park and Prahran have been losing territory Hawthorn has been expanding east to keep up with quota.
@Clem, no I didn’t. You misunderstood my comment. My use of the word “progressive” was very obviously in the context of comparing demographics of Liberal seats Pesutto would need to appeal to.
Fair enough that I could have been clearer, but I acknowledged that and later spelled out for you what I meant, and all your bizarre assumptions about my own politics and apparent childrens’ schooling were made AFTER I had clarified what I meant, not before.
Like I said, you qualified, AFTER being called out. Really, I could not be bothered what your brand of right wing politics is. Now go away, do your homework, brush your teeth and go to bed.
You’d have to be pretty stupid to have not understood the context of the original comment anyway, to be honest. But as I said you made those assumptions about me after I qualified it.
And now you’re saying my politics are right wing after stating I’m a union member who voted Victorian Socialists in the upper house. If you think Socialist voting union members are right wing, I think maybe your ideologies are confused, not ours.
It’s not that hard to just admit you misunderstood a comment and move on. I’m moving on now because I have a movie to get to soon and at this point you’re just trolling.
56 is a really strong result. I was expecting the ALP to come in around 46-48 : though to be fair Jacinta Allan reputedly said they were also expecting somewhere in the 43-49 range. To effectively hold the line completely in terms of seats against a ~3% swing is really impressive. Pesutto, or just as likely his successor, will have his work cut out for him in 2026.
In my case, I thought it was within range for Labor to get seats in the mid-50’s. In 2018, they got almost the same 2pp that they got in 2002, but only managed to get 55 seats compared to 62 in 2002. Then they got a favourable redistribution, then in this election they focused their campaign on the seats they needed to hold in the East and got them secured.
Labor ran a solid campaign and triumphed, despite the overall swing against them.
Also they kept their eyes on the prize in vulnerable regional seats. I notice South Barwon has become Fairly Safe Labor now with a 6% swing toward them for instance, despite being held by the Liberals from 2010-2018.
I saw these figures today, through the last four elections (2010-2022) in Vic:
Nats\Libs\ALP\GRN\IND
2010\10\35\43\0\0
2014\08\30\47\2\1
2018\06\21\55\3\3
2022\09\18\56\4\0
The libs have gone from 35 seats to 18 in 12 years, and the Nats have gone from 10 to 9. In that same time, the ALP has gone from 43-56 seats, and the greens and independents have traded a few seats back and forth, but they’re doing only slightly better than they were a few years ago.
The libs in Vic are circling the drain with those numbers. If they can’t separate themselves from the religious nutters they’re going to have even more problems. The fact is, they’re the nationals now. And if they can’t tame that beast, it doesn’t matter how they market themselves. Dutton, Taylor, and Littleproud, are your federal leaders now.
clem attlee says:
Thursday, December 8, 2022 at 7:03 pm
Mexicanbeemer wrote,”terms progressive and conservative are more accurate labels than left and right wing.” Really? I think that they are wholly inaccurate, particularly when being used to describe privileged suburbs such as Hawthorn. Yeah, of course the voters of Hawthorn are progressive, with their kids going to private schools, their tax minimization schemes, their opposition to organized labour, their multi million dollar homes and their opposition to welfare. Oh but wait.. they recognize gay rights! This is the mantra of the neo liberal! Jog on! Don’t try to kid a kidder.
———————–
Terms progressive and conservative are more accurate labels than left and right wing.
Many working class areas voted no to gay marriage and the republic but they elect ALP MP’s so you wouldn’t call them right wing.
If sending your kids to a private school disqualifies you from being a progressive where does that leave Dan Andrews one of Victoria’s more progressive premiers that sends his kids to a Catholic school. Multi million dollar homes are hardly special in Melbourne these days. One of the reasons why Frydenberg lost Kooyong was how he managed the pandemic stimulus package and research here and overseas has found the people most opposed to welfare are the working class and every taxpayer can minimize their taxes.
SO, just to be clear – can we now admit it was Danslide 2 – Slide harder?
There is no silver lining for the RWNJ/IPA party as much as some may crow about it. They have sacrificed their base to the altar of extremism. Gave it away. They are in a worse position now than before the election.
Pesutto is only moderate when compared to the other Genghis Kahn types in his own party.
I’m still hoping for an ALP/Greens coalition after the next election, but I may have to wait until 2030.
Clem, are you OK? Sounds like you’re having a rough time mate. Pi and Trent are solid. So are you. (Jeremies are a different kettle of fish altogether.)
Kirsdarke: “Then they got a favourable redistribution”
Am I just imagining it, but isn’t that happening most of the time now? Because of the general increase in population of Oz, the cities are demographically making the country Labor. As Australia urbanizes, given the history, shouldn’t we expect this to continue? Given the AEC actually does just do its job of effectively managing electorate change over time. The phenomenon has been talked about for a while; The millenials have become the largest voting block I’m pretty sure. Just having overtaken the boomers. In an increasingly secular country, putting the farm on the quickly shrinking minority seems problematic.
I expect redistributions to continue to mostly favor the ALP.
@Pi
Honestly, they can flip either way these days. Like the Victorian redistribution before the 2014 election. That flipped 5 seats notionally from Labor to the Liberals (Bellarine, Monbulk, Ripon, Wendouree and Yan Yean). And it was an uphill battle for Labor to win them back, but they did so with 4 out of 5 of them, only failing with Ripon.
And a major reason why the Liberals won in South Australia in 2018 was because of a redistribution favoured to them.
When I did my seat by seat predictions I ended with Labor on 54.
Pakenham and Bass were two of the seats I didn’t predict Labor to win, in fact I thought Pakenham was the most likely LIB gain (based on federal results).
Among the other 54 there were some that didn’t end up as I predicted. For example I thought Labor would win Caulfield, but not Northcote. I also thought they might cause an upset in Brighton, but not win Hastings.
It would be revealing who the non-members for Bass, Pakenham & Narracan voted for in the LP Leaders Vote, especially if it is true that the ballot was won on a single vote.
Could the Liberal Party have an official non-Leader, elected by the non-Members for Bass & Pakenham?
It seems a hasty decision to have a Leader’s Ballot, when by waiting until Friday, or next Monday, they would know the full composition of the Party Room.
Any defeated candidate would have a reasonable basis for challenging, this result, on the validity of at least two, if not all three of the non-Members being a party to the ballot.
It seems odd allowing an un-contested candidate to be participating in such a ballot.
@Macca
The non-member for Pakenham apparently voted for Battin. Which makes it 17-15 to Pesutto – not really going to matter what happens in Bass now.
I don’t mean to gloat but….oh what the hell I do mean to gloat: Matthew Guy learns the hard way, and being a slow learner, for a second time – consort with racism, a la African gangs, and far right Nazi sympathisers- and you get your arse handed to you. Twice.
“Guy wears the cranky pants to Pesutto’s party
Matthew Guy is well-known for being an affable chap, so the Spring Street press pack were surprised on Thursday when the former Victorian Liberals leader arrived wearing his cranky pants at state parliament for the party room meeting to elect his successor.
When waiting journos asked Guy for a chat on the way in they were met with what one hack described as “death stares” from the member for Bulleen.
The grumpiness continued after the meeting, where Brad Battin was narrowly beaten by John Pesutto for the top job.
On his way out, Matthew, who has not spoken publicly since his election night concession speech, was asked by a reporter what went wrong. This time the former leader wouldn’t even look at the press pack and just said “Seriously?” before stalking away.
Speaking of Pesutto, it’s probably among the lesser indignities that four years’ exile from his beloved Spring Street has inflicted, but the returning member for Hawthorn wasn’t able to sweep imperiously through the doors of the old building on Thursday on the way to his triumph. He doesn’t have his security pass back yet.
Instead, Pesutto had to cool his heels at Cafe Excello across the street and wait for his friend, supporter and now his upper house leader Georgie Crozier to go over and sign him into the building.”
https://www.theage.com.au/cbd/guy-wears-the-cranky-pants-to-pesutto-s-party-20221208-p5c4tl.html
MABWM,
Yes I’m fine thankyou.
Can you define extremism for us? Or right wing? Or moderate?
So much of the Libs problems are because they refuse to redefine the issues.
Take the ALP/ Teals approach to ‘climate change.’ How many of these people truly believe we’re in a climate crisis? If they do why don’t they boycott fossil fuels? Doesn’t an emergency require immediate action? Isn’t the planet about to die? Why shouldn’t I use fossil fuels when those who scream the loudest continue to? It’s a case of do what I say, not do what I do.
Same with electric cars. They use fossil fuel powered electricity.
The Libs should give the people the freedom to choose. If you want to pay more for energy then go for it. And if you don’t then that’s fine too. What could be fairer?
JCB: “Can you define extremism for us? Or right wing? Or moderate? So much of the Libs problems are because they refuse to redefine the issues.”
Peter Dutton did give it a go:
“You can use leftwing to describe everybody from the left to the right.”
Hope that clarifies it for you …
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/feb/25/dutton-says-leftwing-lunatics-must-be-dealt-with-as-asio-warns-of-far-right-threat
I’ll make it easier for you Oliver. Tell us one example of extremism from the left and right. This should be interesting.
Cookers bringing nooses to the front of parliament calling for the execution of Dan Andrews, and rioting through thy streets, ending with them urinating over the shrine of remembrance.
Or a right wing Australian lunatic killing 50 or so people at a mosque
There’s the right covered.
Max,
“I don’t mean to gloat but….oh what the hell I do mean to gloat: Matthew Guy learns the hard way, and being a slow learner, for a second time – consort with racism, a la African gangs, and far right Nazi sympathisers- and you get your arse handed to you. Twice.”
What racism are you talking about? You don’t think African gangs are an issue? Tell that to those living in Tarneit. Who are these mystery ‘far right, Nazi sympathizers’? There are an awful lot of real communist sympathizers but they don’t count do they?
JB: ” You don’t think African gangs are an issue?”
The LNP has learned nothing.
Pi
Even if we accept what you said is true, how does that make them from the right? The left routinely tries to discredit these protests by such actions. Standard operating procedure. Are you unaware of that?
And your example from the left? That’s hard isn’t it?
“how does that make them from the right? ”
Because fascism is a far-right wing ideology.
“And your example from the left? That’s hard isn’t it?”
Yep. Because it’s the fascists that are the extremists in this day and age. These modern day cookers are the same Riseup chumps from yesteryear. I don’t think you’ve thought your argument through.
“You don’t think African gangs are an issue?”
Keep digging that hole, JCB.
“This should be interesting.”
“Fascinating” even, Jeremy?
Driving around the last few days is providing a good laugh each time I see a car with an anti-Dan cooker sticker on the back!
Jeremy, I was asking Clem, if he was ok.
But I’m glad you think you’re ok.
Play nice. Calm down. It is not 1641 anymore. We are not in South Gilead. I love lefties. Truth matters. BLM. Labor increased their majority despite losing a seat to the Greens! Marriage equality! Hope will always conquer hate. Dutton does look like Voldemort! Bill Shorten is a good guy, despite what Murdoch says. Unions protect your rights at work. Mabo was just the beginning. Sovereignty was never ceded. Elizabeth was a colonialist – and dying at 95 is not sad. There is no planet B. It is not the government’s job to balance the budget, and the LNP know it!
God does not exist.
I am devastated Patton lost her seat. To think Somyurek will replace her is a blow to integrity, women and sanity.
The moon landing did happen, and lockdowns saved lives. Vaccines work. Truth is important. Voltaire was wrong.
Still ok?
Pi
Spot on!
Combined Labor + Greens seats in the lower house per election since 2010:
2010 – 43 / 88 (43 + 0)
2014 – 49 / 88 (47 + 2)
2018 – 58 / 88 (55 + 3)
2022 – 60 / 88 (56 + 4)
Victoria’s parliament is getting more left with every election, and MABWM makes a good observation that Labor still increased their seat count despite losing one of their own to the Greens.
It’s the third election in a row that has happened too: in 2014 they lost Melbourne, in 2018 they lost Brunswick and in 2022 they lost Richmond, but still increased their own seat count at all 3 elections anyway.
Bottom line, there is a clear direction that the state is moving in and no sign that it’s moving back the other way any time soon. The small minority of conservatives just get louder and more obnoxious as they shrink, which is usually the case. Look at the US, where it is also the most progressive cities like Portland that happen to also be a hot spot for far-right activity. Melbourne has similarly become a focal point of far-right activity in Australia, as disillusioned conservatives refuse to accept that they are a shrinking minority and that the majority don’t support their backwards 16th century views, and try to convince themselves that there will some kind of “uprising”.
MABWM,
Such a bounty of riches you provide! But really, if I wanted to address an endless sequence of cliches and meaningless buzz phrases I’d watch the ABC.
But I will pick one. ( After this, I’m having lunch with a woman who would make you weep with desire!)
‘Sovereignty was never ceded’. Have you handed over your house to the local aboriginal population yet? It’s THEIR house really, isn’t it? Presumably you want my house taken from me as well. (That’s also the question I asked of the VS pamphleteer at the prepoll building. I got no answer. Completely bizarre that he wanted me to vote for them whilst stealing my property off me but there you go. He wasn’t very smart.)
All women will benefit greatly from the demise of Patton. Anyone who thinks our daughters should be lured into prostitution is an embarrassing disgrace. I’m only saying that because I can’t think of anything worse.
Jeremy C Browne says:
Friday, December 9, 2022 at 10:25 am
MABWM,
Such a bounty of riches you provide! But really, if I wanted to address an endless sequence of cliches and meaningless buzz phrases I’d watch the ABC.
But I will pick one. ( After this, I’m having lunch with a woman who would make you weep with desire!)
‘Sovereignty was never ceded’. Have you handed over your house to the local aboriginal population yet? It’s THEIR house really, isn’t it? Presumably you want my house taken from me as well. (That’s also the question I asked of the VS pamphleteer at the prepoll building. I got no answer. Completely bizarre that he wanted me to vote for them whilst stealing my property off me but there you go. He wasn’t very smart.)
—————-
When Indigenous people say sovereignty was never ceded they are not asking for your house they are asking the government under its own property laws to recognize the local tribal nation owned its land and had it taken from them without it being ceded.
Mexicanbeemersays:
Friday, December 9, 2022 at 10:38 am
“When Indigenous people say sovereignty was never ceded they are not asking for your house they are asking the government under its own property laws to recognize the local tribal nation owned its land and had it taken from them without it being ceded”
That reasoning is lost on the Jeremy’s of this world. They choose only to see things in terms of what’s ‘theirs’
“After this, I’m having lunch with a woman who would make you weep with desire!”
JCB, you’re a legend in your own lunchtime!
So let me see Jeremy after all this built up rage about pattern and here legislation concerning women.
All you can see about your lunch date …..is some vision of sexual object of desire that we would all desire .
I’ll pass thanks .
Bet your daughters are proud … gee dad did you know she’s really smart…
What girls. All I can see is here smile and big tits.
J J Hall says:
Friday, December 9, 2022 at 10:47 am
Mexicanbeemersays:
Friday, December 9, 2022 at 10:38 am
“When Indigenous people say sovereignty was never ceded they are not asking for your house they are asking the government under its own property laws to recognize the local tribal nation owned its land and had it taken from them without it being ceded”
That reasoning is lost on the Jeremy’s of this world. They choose only to see things in terms of what’s ‘theirs’
____________
The reasoning is not so much lost on the Jeremies as contrary to the propaganda message. Jeremy knows first nations sovereignty doesn’t mean he/she/they will lose their house.
Jeremy just carries on about it hoping to reinforce a message of fear that will scare some voters into favouring the Coalition.
Pure, dishonest calculation on Jeremy’s part.
“No tolls”
“Save the CFA”
“No Skyrail”
“No Lockdown”
“No vaccination”
And on and on it goes
Who is their printer and what is the cost to the Liberal Party of obtaining and distributing their rubbish
Optus which promote “Yes” (actually we are sorry and computer says No) should lend their marketing people to the Liberal Party
And the real Matt Guy shows his true character
Time for Harry to give him another job
Jezza having lunch with Mrs Palmer and her five lovely daughters.Just about sums him up.
Don’t forget to wash your hands you cretin.
Grime says:
Friday, December 9, 2022 at 11:42 am
Jezza having lunch with Mrs Palmer and her five lovely daughters.Just about sums him up.
Don’t forget to wash your hands you cretin.
____________
How about an alternative wording:
Jezza having lunch with Mrs Palmer and her five lovely daughters.Just about sums him up.
Don’t forget to wash your hands you Credlin.
Snappy Tom @ #289 Friday, December 9th, 2022 – 11:54 am
Hmm,I like that.
The Nationals have to demand a new coalition agreement or move to the cross bench. They have gone for 10 to 9 since 2010 but that was due to a lose of a seat via redistribution and they control almost exactly the same territory as they did back then. The Liberals will argue against giving more positions to the Nats on the grounds that the Nationals are at their peak territorial coverage and won’t be able to contribute any more seats in future elections.
On the cross bench they will be able to win concessions from the government sometimes as they will be able to provide an alternative path in the upper house if there is a partial block in the left wing path. The nationals at least care about their electorates, which is sometimes not the case with Liberals and Labor members who get shoehorned into safe seats.
BSF: “The nationals at least care about their electorates”
No they don’t.
https://twitter.com/theprojecttv/status/1103217532457050113?lang=en
Pi @ #292 Friday, December 9th, 2022 – 12:08 pm
Yes they do tend to follow the money,the country folk come second,it’s just the country folk can’t see past the front paddock and subsidy.
Snappy Tomsays:
Friday, December 9, 2022 at 11:16 am
J J Hall says:
Friday, December 9, 2022 at 10:47 am
Mexicanbeemersays:
Friday, December 9, 2022 at 10:38 am
“When Indigenous people say sovereignty was never ceded they are not asking for your house they are asking the government under its own property laws to recognize the local tribal nation owned its land and had it taken from them without it being ceded”
That reasoning is lost on the Jeremy’s of this world. They choose only to see things in terms of what’s ‘theirs’
____________
The reasoning is not so much lost on the Jeremies as contrary to the propaganda message. Jeremy knows first nations sovereignty doesn’t mean he/she/they will lose their house.
Jeremy just carries on about it hoping to reinforce a message of fear that will scare some voters into favouring the Coalition.
Pure, dishonest calculation on Jeremy’s part.
_________
I don’t disagree that being disingenuous to elicit a response from others is the primary goal. It is more a case that the choice to act in such a way is motivated by a strong sense of entitlement, and that what is ‘theirs’ exists to the exclusion of all others.
Jeremy C Browne says:
Friday, December 9, 2022 at 10:25 am
“‘Sovereignty was never ceded’. Have you handed over your house to the local aboriginal population yet? It’s THEIR house really, isn’t it? Presumably you want my house taken from me as well. (That’s also the question I asked of the VS pamphleteer at the prepoll building. I got no answer. Completely bizarre that he wanted me to vote for them whilst stealing my property off me but there you go. He wasn’t very smart.)”
中华人民共和国
Hey cobber do you want to come up to the Gulf for a run and go on country to meet some of my relatives?
You can sprout on about houses and the “local aboriginal population”.
Gators are pretty hungry this time of the year as they are mating and the wet is just around the corner.
Re: Tarneit.
Gee, Jeremy, the electors of Tarneit are so scared and afraid of your mythical gangs of African youths, that they re-elected the local, ALP member with a 2PP margin of 62.6%.
The inclusion of a C in your name doesn’t alter who you are – or was it a ruse to get around WB.
Surprisingly, Labor won nearly all of its seats on first preferences. The only seat that they needed preferences to win on 2pp was Hastings. All of the others, if it was first past the post, they would’ve won easily as well. It was close in Glen Waverley, but they had slightly more primary votes there.
In fact preferences were needed for the Nationals to win Mildura and Morwell too, but that was because a Liberal party candidate was running for those seats as well.
As an Adelaide bludger popping it to have a look at the final Vic result I’d just like to say well done to Vic Labor on the campaign and candidates.
56 seats (net +1) is a great result for a third term government.
Even more so given the negative external factors – high energy costs, rising interest rates.
Greens 3 +1 to 4 is pretty good too.
Surely now, there might be some momentum to reform the upper house ticket system? Somyurek should not be there.
”
Mrmoneysays:
Friday, December 9, 2022 at 11:02 am
So let me see Jeremy after all this built up rage about pattern and here legislation concerning women.
All you can see about your lunch date …..is some vision of sexual object of desire that we would all desire .
I’ll pass thanks .
Bet your daughters are proud … gee dad did you know she’s really smart…
What girls. All I can see is here smile and big tits.
”
Isn’t Jeremy the typical LNP type?
I’d forgotten that the ALP won 62 seats in 2002. As has been pointed out there were no Lower House Green MPs elected that year, so if we’re comparing like with like there are 6o ALP + Green seats in 2022 vs the 62 in 2002- but that’s off a 2PP that’s about 3% lower.
There are a few differences in the electoral map over the last 20 years. One is that in 2002 the ALP won Narracan and Morwell and the now abolished seat of Seymour (of which Eildon is probably the closest equivalent). However there are additional ALP leaning seats in the north and west of Melbourne owing to population growth and redistributions.
West and central Gippsland has been one area that has moved in a more conservative direction recently. It will be interesting to see if urban growth will eventually South Barwonise Narracan. Maybe the establishment of the new SEC in Morwell will also help lift Labor’s fortunes there over time. I suspect that although west Gippsland and the Latrobe Valley haven’t been major tree change destinations to date, that this will change in future decades and also affect voting patterns in those seats.