The Australian reports what sounds like it will be the last Newspoll for the year has come in with the two-party preferred unchanged at 55-45 in favour of Labor 39% (up one), Coalition 35% (steady), Greens 11% (steady), One Nation 6% and United Australia Party 1%. Anthony Albanese’s approval rating is up three to a new high of 62% and down four on disapproval to 29%, and his lead over Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister has blown out from 54-27 to 59-24. Peter Dutton is respectively down three to 36% and one to 45%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1508.
In further federal polling news, I missed that Essential Research has snuck out its first set of voting intention numbers since the election, which it will hopefully now resume reporting regularly. Without excluding a 6% undecided component, this showed primary votes of Labor 33%, Coalition 31%, Greens 13% and others 6%, with the “2PP+” measure at Labor 51%, Coalition 43% and undecided 6%. The poll was conducted November 23 to 29 from a sample of 1042.
Note also the post immediately below from Adrian Beaumont on the US Senate run-off election for Georgia, which will unfold over the coming week.
This Hutson guy is giving me the shits. He basically said that the calculations of averaging were accurate in that sense. FFS!
Accurate, but useless and damaging.
nath says:
Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 4:17 pm
Labor hold Northcote by a 184 votes. Greens will catch it next time.
*******
Possibly, but the ‘inexorable march of progress’ takes a bit of a hit with the Green primary dropping 10% and Labor’s primary holding.
“As part of the deal, Webuild had agreed to pump $30 million into Clough to meet its working capital needs.”
$30 million? What a coincidence.
Snowy Hydro asked to explain nearly $30m in bonuses
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/snowy-hydro-asked-to-explain-nearly-30m-in-bonuses-20221121-p5bzzt
BK:
Yep, they were accurate, because they were legal!
(Except that they weren’t)
BK
+1 to your first sentence.
C@tmomma @ 12.03pm
RE: Abrahms Battle Tanks.
Thanks C@T.
I have been pushing this line since the Russkies invaded Ukraine.
These tanks are a total waste, in Australia, and will end as scrap long before they are employed by the ADF.
Send them to Ukraine, or Poland – where crews can be trained, before being deployed and used to defeat the evil empire.
BL
🙂
By the time of the next election I believe we will be much further along the SWB build and that will not suit the Greens. The NACC could even chalk up a few wins.
Their position on the Voice is problematic.
Not sure where focus can go to stay relevant.
nath @ #460 Tuesday, December 6th, 2022 – 4:38 pm
Ah, there you go again, with the ‘stooges’ slur. Man, you’re a Greens’ stooge! You’re prepared to wait 100+ years for The Greens to take seats one at a time! 😆
You better watch out for the Teals though. They did better in one election than The Greens have done in over 30 years in the House of Reps. And they’re coming for more seats, that The Greens haven’t got a hope in, at the next federal election. 😐
AndrewMck says:
Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 4:40 pm
nath says:
Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 4:17 pm
Labor hold Northcote by a 184 votes. Greens will catch it next time.
*******
Possibly, but the ‘inexorable march of progress’ takes a bit of a hit with the Green primary dropping 10% and Labor’s primary holding.
_____
Victorian Socialists grabbed some good numbers in a few seats off the Greens. But the shift to the Greens in the 2pp tells the tale. Labor down 1.1% and they wont be getting that back.
Many of these APS witnesses were clearly serving their minister rather than the public.
“What interests my boss FASCINATES me!”
BK @ #462 Tuesday, December 6th, 2022 – 4:39 pm
He’s a very smooth operator. You can see why he climbed his way up the greasy pole of the Public Service under the Coalition.
Macca RB @ Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 4:42 pm:
“C@tmomma @ 12.03pm
RE: Abrahms Battle Tanks.
Thanks C@T.
I have been pushing this line since the Russkies invaded Ukraine.
These tanks are a total waste, in Australia, and will end as scrap long before they are employed by the ADF.
Send them to Ukraine, or Poland – where crews can be trained, before being deployed and used to defeat the evil empire.”
============================================
Couldn’t agree more, on both levels:
1. If our defence ever comes to depend on Abrams tanks, it means we have already thrown away our best defensive screen – blocking sea approaches with air and sea power.
2. Almost as much as missile defence, what Ukraine needs is counterattacking punch. Who seriously doubts that Abrams tanks are going to be – at least – highly desirable for such an objective?
BKsays:
Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 4:44 pm
Many of these APS witnesses were clearly serving their minister rather than the public.
“What interests my boss FASCINATES me!”
=================
That is the American way! Thank you Mr Howard.
There is undoubtedly a ceiling for the Greens. You could not imagine the Greens ever holding more than 6-7 seats in Victoria. But I doubt it will take a 100 years to get there.
All he knows is what he didn’t do. Not what he did. At a very important meeting. 🙄
nath says:
Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 4:43 pm
AndrewMck says:
Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 4:40 pm
nath says:
Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 4:17 pm
Labor hold Northcote by a 184 votes. Greens will catch it next time.
*******
Possibly, but the ‘inexorable march of progress’ takes a bit of a hit with the Green primary dropping 10% and Labor’s primary holding.
_____
Victorian Socialists grabbed some good numbers in a few seats off the Greens. But the shift to the Greens in the 2pp tells the tale. Labor down 1.1% and they wont be getting that back.
***********
VS went from 4% to 6.5% in Northcote. That’s only a quarter of the 10% drop in the Greens primary share. (That 10% drop translates to only 3 in 4 of 2018 Northcote Green voters sticking with the Greens in 2022).
You don’t want public servants priviliging their own morality or ethics. However, you’d think some basic lines need to be drawn and the Robodebt witnesses have been very uninspiring in terms of testing potentially unlawful activities and undertaking basic critical thinking.
Also, and obviously, no way this lazy unethical approach would have been taken if the ‘customers’ were ‘worthy citizens’.
Macarthur @ #801 Tuesday, December 6th, 2022 – 3:36 pm
Drones are the future of warfare. Large assets like aircraft carriers and overpriced decades-away submarines will be reduced to elaborate artificial reefs by swarms of low-cost but highly effective unmanned vehicles.
andrewmck says:
VS went from 4% to 6.5% in Northcote. That’s only a quarter of the 10% drop in the Greens primary share. (That 10% drop translates to only 3 in 4 of 2018 Northcote Green voters sticking with the Greens in 2022).
_____________________
VS didn’t compete in 2018. The swing to VS is 6.5% in 2022.
Macarthur
The Black Sea is not where Putin’s War is at.
My view is that the critical issues firstly is the ability of Ukraine to suppress Russian missile swarms and secondly to break the stalemates of the ongoing battles of attrition around Bakhmut as well as around the line settled after the first phase of the Kharkiv counter-offensive.
My view, FWIW, is that battles of attrition between dug in troops protecting artillery which does the real damage on both sides may favour Russia in the sense that it is what the Russian Army is most capable at. Not much initiative is required.
If, when the ground freezes, or following the spring thaw mud drying up, Ukraine forces can penetrate the fronts and destabilize Russians into substantial withdrawals then, in my view, the balance would favour Ukraine again.
ATM it seems to me that the Russians have tidied up the Kherson Front, establishing a substantial defended river advantage over several hundred kilometers and thereby shortened the active Front by the same distance.
This has enabled both sides to deploy troops further north. The Russians have, at this stage, stabilized the Kharkiv counter-offensive. Considering the wholesale panic and retreat, this must be counted as a Russian success.
The Russians are engaged in their (now) preferred war of attrition.
It seems to me that the strategic ball is now in Ukraine’s court.
Billy Kaplan @ #805 Tuesday, December 6th, 2022 – 1:38 pm
The problem here of course is, for the Greens to implement their “perfect,” they will need to wait probably 50 years or more to form Government.
Of course, they could choose to be part of a solution now.
a r @ Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 4:51 pm:
“Drones are the future of warfare. Large assets like aircraft carriers and overpriced decades-away submarines will be reduced to elaborate artificial reefs by swarms of low-cost but highly effective unmanned vehicles.”
===========================================
It is amazing how many billions of rubles of Russian naval hardware is sitting there adorning the eastern shores of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, compared to what these Ukrainian USV’s would have cost. I wonder whether it will be easy for the world’s major naval powers to devise effective interception of these to protect their vastly more expensive assets? It’s way outside my knowledge to offer anything intelligent as an answer to that.
Although if you look at Brunswick you see:
GRN +1.2 pr
ALP -9.4 pr
VS +8.1 pr
So is it Labor voters backing the Green incumbent while Greens voters move to VS or is it Labor voters going mainly to VS?
Or, what is more likely, some combination of both.
I spent my working life in the public service, working with very senior officers, and I am quite astounded by the sheer mindset of some of the people who have given evidence over the last couple of days. It’s not that they were too busy, or overwhelmed by work, it’s that they simply were focussed only on delivering the outcomes demanded by (and therefore offered to) the government.
This is what happens when private sector managerialism is allowed to run rampant.
A government delivers policy. It is not there to deliver ‘savings’, although efficient use of funds is essential.
A private sector business is there to make money. It may do so in a way which is ethical, producing products that benefit society, but its objective is to make a profit, or else it cannot continue.
Imposing a private sector mentality on government agencies has given us this shit. And just how much work is going to be required to return the APS to serving the people of Australia and not the narrow political and commercial interests of the government of the day, nobody knows. But it will be very hard work.
The last election really was the most important in decades, if not in my whole life. And for all the argy-bargy here, I am relieved that it resulted in the wholesale rejection of the Liberal Party, even by some of its most previously dedicated supporters.
nath says:
Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 4:53 pm
andrewmck says:
VS went from 4% to 6.5% in Northcote. That’s only a quarter of the 10% drop in the Greens primary share. (That 10% drop translates to only 3 in 4 of 2018 Northcote Green voters sticking with the Greens in 2022).
_____________________
VS didn’t compete in 2018. The swing to VS is 6.5% in 2022.
***********
Sorry, you’re correct. That 4%was the 2018 VS vote from Northcote‘s booths in Northern Metro.
So Greens ‘lost’ the 4% VS vote parked with them in 2018 plus another 2.5% to VS in 2022, plus another 3.5%.
Back to my starting point. It is possible for the Greens to win next time, but it is in no way foreordained.
Back to my starting point. It is possible for the Greens to win next time, but it is in no way foreordained.
_______________
I see those apartment towers going up in Northcote and I think it is. If Kat Theo does a great job she might delay it by an election cycle, but I think it’s so close now that it’s inevitable next time.
These characters should have been medicos. A pulse rate of 140 followed by a pulse rate of 0 averages out at a fairly normal 70. They can’t understand why the patient died.
BK @ #806 Tuesday, December 6th, 2022 – 1:39 pm
This raises an interesting question.
If data averaging had been legislated as a legitimate way of calculating a debt, would it survive legal challenge on the grounds that the calculation didn’t reflect any true debt?
C@tmomma @ #809 Tuesday, December 6th, 2022 – 4:43 pm
Indeed they will. Labor seats.
nath says:
Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 5:10 pm
Back to my starting point. It is possible for the Greens to win next time, but it is in no way foreordained.
_______________
I see those apartment towers going up in Northcote and I think it is. If Kat Theo does a great job she might delay it by an election cycle, but I think it’s so close now that it’s inevitable next time.
********
And it’s only 4 years until we can test our opinions
He’s right.
#ReleaseCoco
Only another 160 years at the current rate of progress and the VoiceBusters will form government in their own right.
For a VoiceBuster Shoebridge is very noisy.
Bandt had better watch his back.
andrewmck says:
Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 5:06 pm
Sorry, you’re correct. That 4%was the 2018 VS vote from Northcote‘s booths in Northern Metro.
So Greens ‘lost’ the 4% VS vote parked with them in 2018 plus another 2.5% to VS in 2022, plus another 3.5%.
__________
But it is interesting to speculate where that 3.5 went to. The only parties that gained apart from VS were right wing parties and independents. (Reason went up 0.2)
Is it possible that most of the 3.5 went to Labor, while a slice of Labor went to the Freedom Party etc leaving Labor relatively static. That’s what I suspect.
Upnorth – Be Proud of your Pragmatism says:
Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 11:43 am
In the SMH
“Voters have given the federal government a significant boost by increasing core support for Labor to 42 per cent and cutting the Coalition to just 30 per cent in another sign of a powerful shift since the May election.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has confirmed a personal advantage over Opposition Leader Peter Dutton to lead by 54 to 19 per cent when voters are asked to name their preferred prime minister.”
————————————————————————————-
Just more good news to end the year on (large smiles).
Player One @ #834 Tuesday, December 6th, 2022 – 2:14 pm
Why would teal candidates be threat to Labor if Labor continues to implement legislation that the current teal independents largely agree with and support?
I guess we’ve got 8 months of #FreeCoco to look forward to. 😐
C@T
Or even FJAUKUS? This would be a formidable grouping causing an adversary to very carefully consider any moves.
A government delivers policy. It is not there to deliver ‘savings’, although efficient use of funds is essential.
But that’s what happens when the business lobby takes control of the government. Worse when a bunch of religious nutters who have built a religion around a business scaffold, get into government.
Boerwar
agree but 30,000 japanese defeated 120,000 empire troops. yes equipment and air power were inadequate but competent leadership could have saved the situation. as it was responses were always piecemeal and inadequate to the task at hand. it would be interesting to see whether and how much anglo stereotyping of asians gave them a false sense of superiority
Cronus @ #498 Tuesday, December 6th, 2022 – 5:23 pm
I was thinking about broadening it out to The DODO, Defenders of Democracy Organisation, but then I thought about Dodo’s being extinct and all. 😆
Barney in Cherating says:
Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 5:12 pm
This raises an interesting question.
If data averaging had been legislated as a legitimate way of calculating a debt, would it survive legal challenge on the grounds that the calculation didn’t reflect any true debt?
_______________________________________
This is a really interesting fundamental question. If the basis of a welfare payment is determined on the recipient’s situation each fortnight, then a debt could only exist if the recipient did not provide the correct income amount for that fortnight (or failed to advise of a change in circumstances).
There could not be a debt based on annual income (which averaging fundamentally is) unless the law that conferred the entitlement to the benefit was changed to require the recipient to repay an amount if their annual income exceeded a certain amount.
In other words, any law which purported to deal with the raising of a debt had to be in synchronisation with a law that provided for the conferring of the benefit.
I continue to be gobsmacked about how many highly paid “public servants” could not comprehend this basic and fundamental concept. And that’s before you get to the even greater evil of ‘Robodebt’, which was the way the debts were notified and collected and the extreme difficulties placed before benefit recipients who wished to challenge the debt with actual evidence of payslips, etc.
Edited to note, on re-reading, how many times I wrote “fundamental”, Maybe because it is!
So the British didn’t defend every outpost of the Empire sufficiently in WW2. So what. Still got the job done.
I was disgusted in Minns supporting the imprisonment of Coco.
Rex Douglas says:
Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 5:27 pm
I was disgusted in Minns supporting the imprisonment of Coco.
__________
Rex will you be making a submission that Coco spend her time of imprisonment under house arrest at your place?
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/12/04/newspoll-55-45-to-labor-open-thread/comment-page-17/#comment-4023235
+1, the Fibs/ Nats seem to be scouts for their donors
Forget public interest, let alone labor, all about capital
Too much socialising the losses, and privatising the profits, PPP like Westconnex, GBE like Nbnco … worst example for a while though billions for Qantas Group without executive pay and bonuses conditions, equity or loan conditions
Nature of public (let’s see the NACC get some wins …), listed/ beneficial, registered, private orgs varies
Ausminster/ Washminster is the worst of Pommy and Yankee systems, bring on campaign finance reform, useful FoI …
nath says:
Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 5:21 pm
…..But it is interesting to speculate where that 3.5 went to. The only parties that gained apart from VS were right wing parties and independents. (Reason went up 0.2)
Is it possible that most of the 3.5 went to Labor, while a slice of Labor went to the Freedom Party etc leaving Labor relatively static. That’s what I suspect.
*********
I think that’s a reasonable suspicion. But the implied 3.5% shift from Greens to Labor really undermines the inevitable march of history argument.
The impact of new apartment towers may also vary depending on the owner/occupier vs rental mix.
Barney in Cherating @ #837 Tuesday, December 6th, 2022 – 5:22 pm
You mean like Labor’s Zero Ambition climate change policy?
Cat / Macarthur/ Macca
“ C@tmomma @ 12.03pm
RE: Abrams Battle Tanks.
Thanks C@T.
I have been pushing this line since the Russkies invaded Ukraine.
These tanks are a total waste, in Australia, and will end as scrap long before they are employed by the ADF.
Send them to Ukraine, or Poland – where crews can be trained, before being deployed and used to defeat the evil empire.”
+1 from me too.
Ukraine desperately needs these vehicles now. Add 50 M113s and send them on the Canberra and Adelaide and they could form an armoured brigade, which would be invaluable.
If Australia perseveres with heavy armour these tanks were due to be replaced with the latest Abrams anyway. If we don’t keep heavy armour we are just avoiding the decision.
Either way Ukraine could use these tanks to beat up on the 30 year old Soviet era tanks being trotted out in Ukraine now.