The Australian reports the Victorian election eve Newspoll has Labor leading 54.5-45.5, little changed from its 54-46 result three weeks ago, but less commanding than its 57.3-42.7 result at the 2018 election. The primary votes are Labor 38% (up one, compared with 42.9% in 2018), Coalition 35% (down two, compared with 35.2%) and Greens 12% (down one, compared with 10.7%). Daniel Andrews is down five on approval to 46% and up four on disapproval to 48%, while Matthew Guy has “gone from a net approval rating of -20 three weeks ago to -25”, with exact numbers not provided. Andrews’ lead as preferred premier has narrowed from 52-33 to 51-35. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1226.
The Age has changed their online headline away from late surge to the Liberals to “late polls point to Labor holding power”. Apparently the person capable of reading polls woke up.
@sprocket_ says:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 8:46 am
Sceptic
Morrison should ask for a refund from Ashley and Martins
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He probably had to hand the lease for it back now he in on backbencher salary
FWIW:
ALP 47
L/NP 29
Gn 6
Ind 6
max says:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 8:08 am
With Newspoll AEForecasts reading is
ALP victory – 97.6% (84.5% majority government)
LNP – 0.3%
No clear path – 2.1%
Median seat prediction for ALP is 50 seats
https://www.aeforecasts.com/forecast/2022vic/regular/
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Well, what a nail-bitingly close election, then!!!
Let’s see, the BEST poll for the Coalition had them trailing 47-53. The two most recent polls had them trailing 45.5-54.5 (Newspoll – actually a slight improvement for Labor over previous Newspoll) and 45-55 (Morgan).
So, where’s all this Coalition momentum?
Our msm is truly now the msrwpu (mainstream right wing propaganda units).
For the sake of the msrwpu, I hope Victorian voters do what they did in 2018: cane the Coalition a few percent MORE than suggested in polling!
Just voted in the seat of Prahran. My impression is the swing will be on towards the Greens.
For context, in 2018 this polling place was 39.5% Labor and 34% Greens – one of Labor’s strongest polling places.
There were probably about 40 people there, some observations:
– More than a quarter had no HTV card
– Only 1 person had a Liberal HTV card
– Only saw 2 people exclusively take a Labor one
– Around half the people either only had a Greens one, or had the Greens one on top and actively reading it
I’d expect this polling place at least to have a Greens primary vote with a 4 in front of it.
Laughtong
Is your community appreciating the new railway crossing?
Trent
Appreciate the observations
Guy, in Weekend Sunrise:
“Everywhere I have been on pre-polling booths… this week, people are pretty clear they want the fresh start.”
Computer says ‘no’.
Political Nightwatchman says:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 8:48 am
Interestingly the Age has suggested that if the Liberals lose but John Pesutto wins the seat of Hawthorn he wouldn’t be guaranteed as next in line for the leadership.
On the other side, contenders for the Liberal leadership would likely be frontbenchers Brad Battin, Louise Staley and perennial aspirant Ryan Smith.
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Unsurprising in a lot of ways. Pesutto looks reasonably electable and centrist but he looks nothing like the extreme right wing that has so much power in the Liberal Party and that also has a vote on the leadership. If Pesutto becomes leader he will be beholden to them in the same way Guy has been.
Guardian blog:
“Andrews was also asked in that [ABC News] interview why Covid had not been a prominent part of his campaigning”
Translation:
“Mr Premier, why did you dare to not conform to our media narrative in your campaign?”
Pesutto comes across to me as a very decent Liberal, which probably means that even if he wins Hawthorn back today, there’s no guarantee that Liberal mob down there would elect him as leader to replace the Lobster King.
Just had a look at Sportsbet, they have Labor favourite to win over 50 seats, hardly hung parliament material. You think the Newspoll this morning shut up some of the media, including the ABC, who were trying to pump up Matthew Guy’s tyres yesterday?
My hunch is Labor loses 3 or 4 to the Liberals, 2 more to the Greens, and 1 or 2 more to independents, while the Liberals lose a couple to independents too.
That would end up as Andrews retaining government with a majority of 5 or 6?
max: “ If Pesutto becomes leader he will be beholden to them in the same way Guy has been.”
I misread that as ‘Prosciutto’.
One man’s lobster is another man’s ham?
I must say it’s nice to see the generally civilised and respectful attitude taken by most pro-Labor commenters (Boerwar excepted) to pro-Greens commenters, a big change from when I used to lurk here a few years back (and left because of the pointless nastiness).
Swollen Pickles take on Vic election.
https://youtu.be/6L9_HAGH6Wk
Evan: “You think the Newspoll this morning shut up some of the media?”
Indeed, the Age had to backpedal on today’s initial headline proclaiming a late swing to the Coalition.
Yep ,Snappy.
Anyone who has some degree of political pragmatism would have thought that this election was never going to be close and that Labor was odds- on to lose some skin.
Yet your aptly- titled msrwpu could not accept that reality but pushed the electorally unbelievable outcome of hung parliaments or minority government. All the polls indicated those possibilities were in ” tell ‘ em they’re dreaming” la la land. But they persisted…..
If the polls are on- track , how is the msrwpu going to respond ?
Will it be the usual conservative comment- “we didn’t get our message across well enough” and “we will review our campaign “, ” Labor engaged in a deceitful and dirty campaign” or…will someone,somewhere, be brave enough to say ” we’ve got to make our policies contemporary and cut the ideology. People are tired of constant, negative dialogue”.
The sobering reality must eventually sink in- the msrwpu has lost its influence- control of papers and TV just can’t win it for them anymore.
Won’t be trying to find out their commentary on the results but can depend on our PB posters to fill me in.
As for our erstwhile PBers on the other side of the political fence, I look forward to their posts. Should be informative.
Persia says:
“I must say it’s nice to see the generally civilised and respectful attitude taken by most pro-Labor commenters (Boerwar excepted) to pro-Greens commenters …”
Hear, hear.
My sister told me that a DLP person came up to her, thrust HTV in her hand and said “Labour without Dan”. That’s cheeky. My sister is rusted on ALP and on top of that really likes Dan so that wasn’t going to work. I suspect a lot of Geelong residents also like Dan (based on my impressions as a sometime Pivotonian).
Pesutto’s reputation as a moderate to me seems to be mostly based on his sober performance on the panel on the election night in the face of a crushing loss, including his own seat. I don’t really think a Liberal government headed by him would necessarily be moderate. I mean, was the Turnbull government moderate?
“Evan says:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 10:13 am
Pesutto comes across to me as a very decent Liberal, which probably means that even if he wins Hawthorn back today, there’s no guarantee that Liberal mob down there would elect him as leader to replace the Lobster King.”
True Evan, there is no guarantee indeed. The problem with the Libs, however, is that they have run out of seafood, and I am not sure whether they are keen to go full vegetarian. They dream to get the big and juicy stake, but there is no meat anymore in the Victorian Liberal party…
For how long will the restaurant be able to stay open under these circumstances?
Victoria @ #146 Saturday, November 26th, 2022 – 8:57 am
She could never disguise her hatred of the lockdowns.
And they are not short on cook(er)s.
The cookers are the loudest and most obnoxious. No self awareness whatsoever.
Sky and Murdoch may have a dwindling audience but they set the agenda for the rest of the media (including the ABc) who for some reason feel the need to include Murdoch hacks in their panel shows and cover the issues they raise (regardless of how nutty they are). Their social media following is also pretty big (I was shocked to see the sky YouTube view figures).
Hoping for a solid Labor win today. Given the media pile on against Dan and the fact incumbency for anyone who was running the show during covid now seems a disadvantage, I’d be happy with anything that allows Labor to form government in our own right.
Labor 47 seats, 53/47 two party preferred
Victoriasays:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 8:57 am
Patricia Karvelas
If Dan Andrews secures a historic third term and majority government that’s a pretty extraordinary result after the intensity of some of the campaign. #VicVotes2022
And Paul Bongiorno’s reponse
“Intensity” ? Try blatant, manipulative hysteria.
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Obviously PK and Bongo haven’t been listening to the Andrews lovefest hosted by Virginia and Raf on 774 over the past few weeks.
Martin: that’s because the algorithm favours sky news YT channel.
I never consume news or politics related content on YouTube yet it’s incessantly recommended to me on my home page .
This became further entrenched during the lockdown days as rage clicks generated a lot of revenue.
Martinsays:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 10:46 am
“I was shocked to see the sky YouTube view figures”
If you want to falsely inflate YouTube view counts, it’s not that hard.
Stefan says:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 10:50 am
Martin: that’s because the algorithm favours sky news YT channel.
I never consume news or politics related content on YouTube yet it’s incessantly recommended to me on my home page .
This became further entrenched during the lockdown days as rage clicks generated a lot of revenue.
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Because Google owns Youtube its algos seem to work in tandem.
Sky News Australia has a bunch of American viewers as well, so that inflates their view counts artificially.
Pesutto is a former IPA hack and the shadow AG behind the “African gangs” hysteria last election. How he has suddenly gained this image as a moderate is beyond me.
Wayfarer says:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 11:11 am
Pesutto is a former IPA hack and the shadow AG behind the “African gangs” hysteria last election. How he has suddenly gained this image as a moderate is beyond me.
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Some people are easily pleased because all they need to hear is a few sensible words on the ABC.
Wayfarer says:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 11:11 am
Pesutto is a former IPA hack and the shadow AG behind the “African gangs” hysteria last election. How he has suddenly gained this image as a moderate is beyond me.
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Pesutto Name sounds like someone out of Trump’s camp
And what happened to Turnbull?
Removed by Murdoch and Stokes – giving us the puppet Morrison
Victoria @ #154 Saturday, November 26th, 2022 – 9:53 am
Very much so.
Laughtong
Great to hear
Polling at my local booth in sunbury has been interesting.
Most are grabbing liberal cards.
Funnily the DLP volunteer is wearing a “we are union” shirt.
Paul Sakkal reporting that internal liberal polling has them in a much better position than what we all think
Just had a go at voting. Queue is way too long so we will try again later.
Looks like the VEC spent too much time playing politics and not enough time organising the election.
My prediction.
54.5% TPP – I’m backing Newspoll’s final poll, for all the primaries and 2PP.
But despite the 2.8% swing to the Coalition, I’m not expecting much joy on their end in seat results.
Labor – 49
Greens – 5 (plus close in a 6th and makes the 2CP count in a 7th – setting it up as a 2026 target)
Inde inc Teals – 6
Liberals – 22
Nats – 6
The seats result for the Coalition will be pretty bad, relative to the 2PP result, because: Some seats that are safe Labor will be closer than normal. Think a 6% margin when they normally get 12%, as the Libs collect votes from the cookers and those who thought preselecting Deves was a masterstroke. And the Libs will lose some seats despite winning the 2PP vote by 10% or more (to teals and indes).
A-G to call ‘only Labor have a path to government, but due to some close/complex seats we won’t know if it’s majority or minority’ by 9:30 pm on the night. The complex seats will be ones where the VEC chose the wrong 2CP count, or where the important thing is actually the 3CP count, as we saw in fed election earlier.
In the upper house, I’m predicting Labor will be able to pass legislation with the support of the Greens and one of Reason or AJP.
Guy will announce his resignation from parliament on monday, leading to a by-election.
“Looks like the VEC spent too much time playing politics and not enough time organising the election.”
LOL, Taylormade!
The VEC have done an incredible job under very tough circumstances, which are going to get worse as the Liberal party and RWNJs in the media keep copying the Trump playbook and attacking them, even encouraging outright election denial. Even pissy snide comments like the one above are undermining our democracy.
Most Australians have no idea how lucky we are to have independent bodies running our elections.
I’ve been here since 2015, but I’m a quality over quantity poster.
I stand by my comments and predictions in my previous posts on this thread.
Just had a Democracy sausage with bacon, pretty good.
“I’m a quality over quantity poster.”
Self-praise is no recommendation.
This must be what poster Sakkal is referring to.
Paul Sakkal on twitter
Liberal internal poll of ~25 marginals: Coalition primary 37/ALP 33
Lib HQ confident ALP will lose 10+ seats & in best case, drop below 40 seats
Newspoll ALP primary higher than Resolve/Redbridge/both party internals
But all published polls indicate ALP majority #VicVotes2022
Weren’t the libs saying something similar last election? It’d definitely be a pretty big deal if Newspoll got it significantly wrong.
Taylormade @ #186 Saturday, November 26th, 2022 – 11:58 am
Two weeks of pre-polling and the option for a postal vote and yet you turn up on polling day with a sunny morning and expect to be ushered in to your private booth immediately.
As our erstwhile multi minister smarmy faced git that he is might have opinioned.
Protests elsewhere are being “met with bullets”.
“Liberal internal poll …”
Samantha Maiden still has the scars from Liberal internal polling for the Federal election: “Liberal insiders are optimistic …”
I really look forward to the occasional posts from Morrison Fanboi Taylormade who obviously is on a drip feed from Menzies House.
They give us an excellent view of the Liberals desperation.
The Liberals have made a fatal and probably permanent error in allowing the infiltration of right wing religious loons and various other cookers. They did the same in WA and were reduced to just two members in the Legislative Assembly. I predict a wipeout of similar proportions in Victoria.
Blanket Criticism @ #190 Saturday, November 26th, 2022 – 12:17 pm
Someone please pass the raw prawn.