The Australian reports the Victorian election eve Newspoll has Labor leading 54.5-45.5, little changed from its 54-46 result three weeks ago, but less commanding than its 57.3-42.7 result at the 2018 election. The primary votes are Labor 38% (up one, compared with 42.9% in 2018), Coalition 35% (down two, compared with 35.2%) and Greens 12% (down one, compared with 10.7%). Daniel Andrews is down five on approval to 46% and up four on disapproval to 48%, while Matthew Guy has “gone from a net approval rating of -20 three weeks ago to -25”, with exact numbers not provided. Andrews’ lead as preferred premier has narrowed from 52-33 to 51-35. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1226.
“scraping a third term” with a (prospective) measly 54.5% of the 2PP vote!
They’re totally shameless, Mammoth.
BC
‘I genuinely can’t believe how support for Labor has evolved into a cult of personality in this state. Especially around someone so unlikeable and devoid of charisma or even good at being a politician.’
OK, I see your problem.
You believe there’s a cult of personality around Andrews but you think he’s unlikeable.
In other words, the majority of people have a different opinion then you do. Obviously, to varying degrees, they do find him likeable.
You don’t get that. Fine.
It doesn’t mean that those people are wrong, or deluded, or in a cult. They just like someone you don’t.
Victorian election was similar the 2022 federal election campaign
The lib/nats are in trouble and will remain in opposition nationwide if the voters are awake to the fact , the corrupt media is the political propaganda arm of the lib/nats
Scott: “The lib/nats are in trouble and will remain in opposition nationwide if the voters are awake to the fact …”
After the NSW election they could well be out of power across mainland Australia … with Tasmania as the Liberals’ Taiwan.
Tonight’s dinner special: twice-cooked lobster, with a side of wilted cos lettuce …
Correction: Kos lettuce.
ALP & Greens & Teals (I prefer Independents).
Tonight, when the ALP Government is returned with a similar or slightly reduced majority (based on the overnight polling) they will (or should) follow in the same manner as their Federal counterparts, especially if they require that support in the Upper Chamber.
Many of the seats won by these candidates will come at the expense of the LNP, with the exception of the Greens if they are successful in Northcote or Richmond.
Consult, consider and support the Crossbenchers in the knowledge that in any future electoral tightening between the two major parties these members may be vital in supporting a minority labor government.
Every LNP seat lost now, is two less to gain when seeking a future majority.
From the Age: when you have no more data breathlessly report “insider” speculation
“On the eve of the election, strategists from both the major parties were preparing for a tight result, with the Liberal Party’s internal track polling in about 25 marginal seats showing the Coalition’s primary vote had risen to the high 30s, with Labor’s below 35.
A senior Liberal Party source, who spoke anonymously to discuss the party’s polling, told The Age the Coalition was on track for a “better result than anyone has publicly predicted”, with the party confident of picking up the seats of Ashwood, Box Hill, Yan Yean, Ringwood and Melton….
The Liberal Party is also banking on strong swings away from Labor in the safe seats of Sunbury, Sydenham, Eureka and Point Cook.
……
Labor strategists confirmed the party was trailing in several key seats, but last night said they remained confident the Andrews government could hold on to power after preferences. One Labor source said there remained a significant number of people who were undecided and did not like Andrews.
Several Labor figures, speaking to The Age on the condition of anonymity to discuss polling, listed Bass, Melton, Pakenham, Hawthorn and Box Hill as the seats most at risk on Saturday.
“Inner middle suburbs good, outer suburbs bad and regional Victoria bad,” one Labor source said. “That’s how I would describe the mood.”
They said MPs and candidates in the outer suburbs who had a local profile and established a reputation were able to establish their own brand, while others who have been unable to separate their identity from the tarnished Labor brand could struggle.
Resolve director Jim Reed said while the momentum was with the Coalition, the Liberal and National parties would need a swing of between 9 and 11 per cent to form a majority government.
“The most likely scenario from our snapshot one week out is still Labor retaining power, either with a slim majority or just shy of one,” he told The Age.
Reed said while preference flows had improved for the Coalition since their nadir of 2018, it was unlikely to be enough to win government.
“Guy and the Coalition simply cannot win on a low primary of 36 per cent. Their primary vote would need to have a four in front of it.”
….
Andrews declined to comment on polls that point to a minority Labor government or what he believed the mood of the state was, saying he was more focused on substance than style, in a pointed rebuke of Guy’s attack lines.
“Substance is what matters, and doing what you say, getting on, making kinder free, making TAFE free, making sure the SEC comes back,” Andrews said. “That’s our plan. I’ll leave it to others to evaluate and comment on the mood.”
…..
Guy, introduced at Friday’s press conference by opposition tourism spokeswoman Cindy McLeish as “our next premier”, spent the morning fossicking for gold in Sovereign Hill where he announced a tourism support package for regional Victoria, including $6 million towards making regional towns caravan friendly.
He said he believed the Coalition could win the 18 seats it needed to form a majority government.
….
Guy, who will be under pressure to quit if he fails to lead the Coalition to an outright victory, laughed off questions about his future if the Coalition falls short on election night.
In the upper house, the final result is not expected to be known for weeks, with neither side expected to win a majority, and the Greens and minor parties predicted to hold the balance of power.
But favourable preference deals with conservative minor parties are expected to boost the Liberal Party’s representation in the 40-seat Legislative Council, with party sources telling The Age it was confident of picking up three extra spots, while Labor is nervous about holding on to spots in the Eastern Victoria and Western metropolitan regions.
….
Sources linked to teal candidates told The Age that independents backed by Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 group would be “competitive” in the Liberal-held seats of Kew and Mornington.
“In those seats, there are much higher levels of dissatisfaction with both leaders which has boosted support for the independents,” one of the sources told The Age. But the teals have walked back expectations in the seats of Hawthorn and Caulfield”.
“Blanket Criticism says:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 12:47 am
I support Labor but I think Vic Labor needs a change in leadership. I genuinely think Andrews reeks of corruption and covered up his involvement in the hotel quarantine scandal and I don’t like his coziness with China, which is the modern Nazi Germany, a corrupt authoritarian one party state committing genocide. Many of my fellow Victorians feel this way, but can’t say so in polite conversation…”
But you and your fellow Victorians will vote today, so if the Lobster and his Coalition mob are trashed (as expected from opinion polls and betting agencies), what will your opinion be about that silent majority you allude to in your post? …. You do change your opinion if the facts prove you wrong, do you? Because, unfortunately, you can’t change the facts!
Late polls point to Labor clinging on, despite final Liberal surge.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/late-polls-point-to-labor-clinging-on-despite-final-liberal-surge-20221124-p5c15j.html
The front page of our local paper, the Geelong Advertiser: “Too big a hill to win for Labor” Apparently this is what peak denial looks like in the Murdoch universe. The four lower house state seats in Geelong are held by the ALP (two MPs retiring at this election), and both fed seats are held by ALP. With their own polling saying 54.5% ALP I just don’t get it, is this satire? Perhaps Taylormade (from Corangamite I believe) could explain it to me. I’m off to set up my local booth, too busy to read the inside pages.
Happy Victoria Day!
The Liberals and the Liberal media, really think the voters are stupid. They thought that if they could put the bellows into a fire they set under Dan Andrews, that it would burn him down. Well, guess what? It didn’t. Voters aren’t stupid. They realise that all that he was trying to do was keep them alive through a pandemic! Lockdown schmockdown. The Cookers are still alive today because of the actions Dan Andrews took. The businesses are still viable and thriving. They should be thanking the man that they and their businesses are still alive today to make their baseless complaints about him.
Go Dan the Man!
Grime
“Clinging on?”
That reminds me years ago listening to an AFL game from Perth where in the last quarter one of the ABC Perth commentators breathlessly said half way through the last quarter –
“And St.Kilda are clinging to a 31 point lead”
That Age article is just bizarre.
Is “Blanket Criticism” really Jeremy in disguise with glasses?
Murdoch’s Hun today, carrying on as if their vicious attacks on Dan Andrews never happened.
Rocket Rocket @ #111 Saturday, November 26th, 2022 – 7:34 am
Well yeh,being a Saints tragic you are never sure until the siren.
I think Labor will end up with around 48 seats. Small chance of a Hung Parliament, but here’s hoping.
Macca RB @ #112 Saturday, November 26th, 2022 – 7:39 am
Or Bobby even.
“Macca RB says:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 7:12 am”
I agree that, overall, Labor should be constructive towards the broader Progressive side of politics, whether they need those votes or not in any of the chambers. This, of course, doesn’t mean that the crossbenchers would tell Labor what to do. The constructive approach should be both ways, as clearly shown by the Greens on CO2 emissions target.
More generally, and with regard to the leader media brouhaha, let’s note this:
Newspoll Vic State Election: Andrews’ lead as preferred Premier………… 51%-35%
Latest Newspoll Federal Election 2022: Scomo and Albo tied at……………….. 42%
Conclusion: if the leader is such a central issue at this Vic election, then the Vic ALP should be returned with a margin much higher than the one with which the federal ALP won the 2022 federal election.
Albo won the federal election with a 52.13% 2PP…. shouldn’t we expect Andrews to win with a 2PP higher than 52.13%?… In fact, that’s consistent with the current 2PP for this Vic election from the latest opinion poll: 54.5% Newspoll.
The losers in the 2022 Victorian election are the indentured hacks working with both barrels in an attempt to shore-up the aging sunset tree media mogul and his misplaced allegiance.
Matthew Guy, if truly respected, would have never been placed again, at the forefront of this doomed campaign.
Morrison’s surprise win federally in 2019, will be seen, in an historical context, together with the Morrison government disastrous lack of propriety between 2019-2022, as the pivotal point of no return for liberal governments representing lack of transparency, lack of integrity and dishonesty.
The Teals, the Greens and the independents owe the Morrison government a huge thank you for achieving a massive platform for them to gain recognition and most likely have some successes at the finish of counting after today’s election.
Dan Andrews has been a standout leader during both the pandemic and this campaign.
This Victorian election has been dominated by the “belt and road initiative” established by the Murdoch press to gain influence and return us to the “bad ole days” of “profits before people”.
It seems it ain’t happening!
“Justin from Geelong says:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 7:26 am
The front page of our local paper, the Geelong Advertiser: “Too big a hill to win for Labor” Apparently this is what peak denial looks like in the Murdoch universe. The four lower house state seats in Geelong are held by the ALP (two MPs retiring at this election), and both fed seats are held by ALP. With their own polling saying 54.5% ALP I just don’t get it, is this satire?”…
At this stage it looks like neither “satire” nor “propaganda”, it’s just Trump-style complete delusion…. Murdoch’s business model is being changed by the voters around the world, he doesn’t like it, of course, but if he wants to save his business, he better accept the new reality and adapt….
Grime
Yes sadly that commentator probably just added to my stress!
Or maybe Blanket Criticism is just another voter whose opinion on Andrews happens to differ from those of some others in this forum? It’s interesting that some people find that so upsetting and launch into conspiratorial theories about their “real” identities. Because of course, as all 3 year olds know, no one else could possibly hold a view of the universe that’s different from one’s own
Can people get over Murdoch. In Victoria he owns old shit that no one reads and a TV channel that no one watches. His influence on any election is now less important than it has ever been. Almost negligible.
To quote Malcolm Fraser in full “The Liberal Party is no longer a liberal party. It is now a Conservative Party”
Perhaps our media barons could revisit the conclusion of Malcolm Fraser from some 10 years ago and more
citizen @ #12 Saturday, November 26th, 2022 – 7:39 am
No, Matthew Guy, Victoria’s Services are not ‘safe’ if you win, the views of many who would be in your caucus are not ‘sensible’, and you may be ‘ready to govern’ but in a way that would be ideologically disastrous for the State due to the influence of those in your caucus with Radical Conservative views.
With Newspoll AEForecasts reading is
ALP victory – 97.6% (84.5% majority government)
LNP – 0.3%
No clear path – 2.1%
Median seat prediction for ALP is 50 seats
https://www.aeforecasts.com/forecast/2022vic/regular/
Andrews is right. No deals with the Voice Busters. Untrustworthy. Unpredictable. Devious. Track record of treachery. They have earned Lobster preferences.
The Victorian Liberals are averting their eyes from this albatross… just what they need to suck oxygen out of their push to be seen as an acceptable alternative
Former High Court judge Virginia Bell does not describe Scott Morrison as a megalomaniac. But the picture she paints neatly fits the dictionary definition of “someone who has an unnaturally strong wish for power and control”.
Bell’s report into Morrison’s extraordinary action of installing himself into five portfolios reinforces what has already been the general condemnation of his contempt for political conventions, and his reprehensible behaviour towards colleagues.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7996572/morrisons-fall-from-grace-isnt-over-yet/?cs=14258
Labor with a majority of 5.
“nath says:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 8:00 am
Can people get over Murdoch. In Victoria he owns old shit that no one reads and a TV channel that no one watches. His influence on any election is now less important than it has ever been. Almost negligible.”
The decreased importance of Murdoch in manipulating the voters must be showed through his failures at elections, not through opinions telling that he is not as influential as it is believed.
max @ #121 Saturday, November 26th, 2022 – 7:55 am
Can’t BC,Bobby,Jeremy speak for themselves when an observation is made that there statements are so similar they would seem to have come out of the same classroom at Scotch. 😉
How clever of you to bring 3 year olds into attempting to take a rise.
nath says:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 8:00 am
Can people get over Murdoch. In Victoria he owns old shit that no one reads and a TV channel that no one watches. His influence on any election is now less important than it has ever been. Almost negligible.
————————————
It shows Lib/nats do not have political intelligence , because they still use Murdoch cronies as their political propaganda media arm
NSW will likely be the same ,as every where else
Rupert is not going to take a return of Victorian Labor for another 4 years well.
He has already sacked the editor of the SmearStralian on Trumped-up charges of being a sleazebag in public. When Chris Dore’s real crime was allowing Albo to win.
Sam Weir, editor of the Herald Sun, already has a black mark against his name in ‘losing Queensland’ when he was head of the CM – another humiliation in the Massachusetts of the South will attract the boning which awaits all Murdoch failures.
Social media has a huge role to play in shaping views and beliefs.
Sky news and the Herald Sun always find their way into my feed.
The headlines are always very negative and imply some serious corruption by Dan Andrews.
It is relentless.
Where does one think the cookers have been getting their disinformation that Dan Andrews is the devil.
The whole notion that there is a cult of Andrews is a construct.
It is actually the anti dan movement that are in a cult, and project that it is anyone that supports Dan and Labor.
The vic Labor state govt has been a productive one. They deserve another term.
sprocket_ says:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 8:10 am
What’s happened to SfM hair?
And so it begins – SkyNews blaming ‘the media’ for going easy on Dan Andrews…
Media ‘barely’ mentioned Andrews government’s ‘incompetent’ COVID-19 handling
12 hours ago
The media has failed to make the Andrews government’s “incompetent” handling of COVID-19 the centre of the Victorian state election campaign, according to Sky News Digital Editor Jack Houghton.
Victorians will head to the polls on Saturday to vote in the state election with Premier Daniel Andrews set to face off against Opposition Leader Matthew Guy.
“Melbourne was the most locked-down city in the world and decisions made to strip people of their civil liberties were not made because of science, but politics,” Mr Houghton said.
“Lazy and incompetent politicians who ignored the World Health Organisation’s advice to use lockdowns only as a last resort to bolster health resources, have spent this campaign patting themselves on the back.
“Knowing what we know now, you would think the media would have turned this campaign into a referendum on the Andrews government’s handling of COVID-19.
“Most days it barely raised a mention and instead voters were briefed daily on scandals with previously unknown politicians on topics such as race and religion.” </I?
https://www.skynews.com.au/opinion/media-barely-mentioned-andrews-governments-incompetent-covid19-handling/video/f092e70c42b595bd38a320ea7a7ec1f8
Sceptic
Morrison should ask for a refund from Ashley and Martins
sprocket
As opposed to NSW govt who didnt even have a covid safe protocol for airline staff being transported to hotel.
And who can forget the reams of newscorp stories in NSW blaming the driver who actually followed protocols in place.
Interestingly the Age has suggested that if the Liberals lose but John Pesutto wins the seat of Hawthorn he wouldn’t be guaranteed as next in line for the leadership.
On the other side, contenders for the Liberal leadership would likely be frontbenchers Brad Battin, Louise Staley and perennial aspirant Ryan Smith.
If John Pesutto wins back Hawthorn, sources close to the MP said he would seek the top job. However, his small-l liberal, urbane style does not align with the more hairy-chested conservatism espoused by some in the Coalition party room, and his loss in 2018 has also dented his credibility. Despite being commonly touted as the party’s best choice as leader, particularly in progressive elements of the media, Pesutto is not a shoo-in to win a ballot.
An outside chance to become Liberal leader is young, first-term frontbencher Matt Bach. Some in the party are urging the articulate former school principal to move from the upper house – potentially into Guy’s seat of Bulleen, which Bach lives near – to become leader and usher in a new era for the Coalition.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/knives-out-what-will-happen-to-both-leaders-after-the-election-20221125-p5c182.html
Is it Rupert calling the shots, or Lachlan? Would the father associate himself with such obvious losers? I don’t think so, certainly not when he was younger.
Will Rupe bone Lachlan?
“SkyNews blaming ‘the media’ for going easy on Dan Andrews…”
Beyond satire.
Oliver sutton
Sky news is shameless
I’m pretty sure Victorians remember the pandemic, Sky.
If the media hasn’t mentioned anything it’s that Guy and Co demonstrated during the pandemic they were only good for carping, and supporting cookers, and being more interested in golf courses staying open than anything else. They made themselves unelectable to many people with that performance – see the huge negative approval rating for Guy! But the media seems blind to the fact that while many people clearly turned away from Andrews over the pandemic the same is also true for the Libs.
“Sky News Digital Editor Jack Houghton”
Related to Des Houghton, former editor of Murdoch’s Courier-Mail?
Patricia Karvelas
If Dan Andrews secures a historic third term and majority government that’s a pretty extraordinary result after the intensity of some of the campaign. #VicVotes2022
And Paul Bongiorno’s reponse
“Intensity” ? Try blatant, manipulative hysteria.
“sprocket_says:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 8:38 am
And so it begins – SkyNews blaming ‘the media’ for going easy on Dan Andrews…”
Oh dear… Can you imagine what the media landscape would look like had they gone “hard” against Andrews?… So, from what SkyNews says, we expect the next Vic ALP term to be an even greater cocktail of media lies, propaganda and nonsense than the current term has been…. What about the voters who are rejecting such brainless media approach? Wouldn’t doubling down on the stupid media strategy make the voters even angrier against the Coalition?
Oh well, if the Libs want to remain permanently in opposition in Victoria, whom am I to oppose the idea?…. 🙂
And a response to Paul Bongiorno from an Ian Bell. Yep….
—-
Spot on Paul – have never witnessed such an orchestrated media campaign so clearly designed to undermine a premier and manipulate the populace. Straight from the Trump conspiracy theory/attack dog playbook and blatant is the word – as evidenced by the unashamedly partisan bias.
John Kennedy has been a very productive Member for Hawthorn over these past four years.
Would love to see him get over the line.
I have received 2 sms messages
1. Ditch Dan – about all it said
2. Longer one from the local Lib candidate here in Sunbury. Only it is addressed to OH not me. That is the 3rd time she has tried I think.
Too bad we prepolled over a week ago.