The Australian reports the Victorian election eve Newspoll has Labor leading 54.5-45.5, little changed from its 54-46 result three weeks ago, but less commanding than its 57.3-42.7 result at the 2018 election. The primary votes are Labor 38% (up one, compared with 42.9% in 2018), Coalition 35% (down two, compared with 35.2%) and Greens 12% (down one, compared with 10.7%). Daniel Andrews is down five on approval to 46% and up four on disapproval to 48%, while Matthew Guy has “gone from a net approval rating of -20 three weeks ago to -25”, with exact numbers not provided. Andrews’ lead as preferred premier has narrowed from 52-33 to 51-35. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1226.
Well, if memory serves, this time four years ago the narrative was a narrow path victory for the Liberals on the back of flipping the SkyRail seats. As it turned out, there were double-digit swings to the ALP in those seats and the red wave lapped right up to blue ribbon seats like Brighton and Caulfield
Now there’s a new narrative of Minority Govt made slightly plausible by lack of polling. To me, this seems to be crafting a narrative of momentum during the campaign in the hope it might induce some momentum.
I think it’s failed we’ll know in a few hours
Still hundreds to vote at docklands. Lined up
6pm.
Strap in, I reckon a long night with the mass of prepoll to get through.
Antony Green on tv, and so it begins…..
”
Mrmoneysays:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 6:00 pm
Still hundreds to vote at docklands. Lined up
”
So what happens in this scenario to vote counting and declaration?
Will the TV channels and Radio stations be asked to withhold till the lines are cleared?
Here we go….
”
Expatsays:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 6:01 pm
6pm.
Strap in, I reckon a long night with the mass of prepoll to get through.
”
I so want Anthony Green to call it early for Victorian Labor.
88 seats in doubt according to ABC
Good luck all.
Except for the cookers. Fuck them.
Well, if the Coalition make any big inroads tonight, it would show that negative campaigning, replete with lies, stirring up fear, contempt and hatred, works. The opposite if Labor holds its own.
As William may be busy, new Victorian thread!
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/11/26/victorian-election-live-5/
@Ven
Usually the process is that the small rural booths report their results first, then the bigger booths steadily roll in after 7pm.
Also I hope those lining up have umbrellas. There’s a stormy rain front rolling in that’ll hit Melbourne soon. About half an hour in the western suburbs, and about an hour in the city by my guessing.
Ven @ 1803
Re the queues at Docklands. AFAIK voters must be within ‘the voting centre’ at precisely 1800 when the doors are locked. I think VEC staff will try and get as many indoors as possible. They then cannot leave under any circumstances until they have voted.
This is certainly was the modus operandi years ago when a friend of mine was a candidate for Kooyong in the early 2000s.
Kirsdarke @ 1808
Anyone still in the queue at 1800 when the polls close and not in the secure building where the polling booth is will be turned away AFAIK.
Happy to be corrected.
New thread.
.
I think are lot of people outside Victoria will be taking notice of this Victorian election.
It will demonstrate how people casting a secret ballot react to the combination of a strong government leader, an opposition captured by extremists, an assorted bunch of MAGA wannabees and the extremely malign influence of Murdoch and other media.
i
RR; In SW-Coast, Greens are preferencing Altman ahead of Labor, that should be enough to make a difference.
ABC should bone these dodgy Vox pops
Oakeshott Country:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 5:13 pm
[‘Mavis
You have forgotten Baldwin’s bashing and Newman’s assassination in NSW.]
Correct, my mistake, though these were cases not associated with the Left & Right of politics.
Newspoll rarely get it wrong.
Green should call it, and Growth has relied on his less-than-stellar tennis career – he’ll last a term. He’s Vic’s equivalent of Alexander.
One of our sons, in Deakin, voted early at East Ringwood Sports Centre so took an interest in the overall vote there
He advised it favoured Labor, which surprised him
Mind you Sukkar just got past the post on absentees, making the Seat the most marginal in Australia
So perhaps, just perhaps, pinning hopes on pre-polls may be misguided on behalf of the Conservatives
A significant number voting at pre-polls are younger people and no longer the older population who are Conservative heartland (or were until they gave preferences to the Greens and “put Labor last”)
With the primary vote of the Conservatives anchored under 30% and dropping they are irrelevant
They hold 58 of 151 Seats federally – nearly half of those in Regional Queensland
And receive the advantage of media – for what that is worth – and that remains a lead question
Who is going to vote how Murdoch, Costello and Stokes tell them how to?
“Work To Rulesays:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 5:59 pm
Well, if memory serves, this time four years ago the narrative was a narrow path victory for the Liberals on the back of flipping the SkyRail seats. As it turned out, there were double-digit swings to the ALP in those seats and the red wave lapped right up to blue ribbon seats like Brighton and Caulfield
Now there’s a new narrative of Minority Govt made slightly plausible by lack of polling. To me, this seems to be crafting a narrative of momentum during the campaign in the hope it might induce some momentum.
I think it’s failed we’ll know in a few hours”
Whenever I’ve seen these silly “Polls Narrowing” stories this election I’ve seen exactly this – the Lib cheerleaders in the media crafting stories about Coalition momentum in the vain hope that it will somehow conjure up some momentum.
The Libs have yet again completely misread the public, failing to understand that the anti-lockdown, anti-Dan crowd are merely loud, not numerous, and that they represent precisely no-one outside their own small groups.
In the end – a very accurate Newspoll