The Australian reports the Victorian election eve Newspoll has Labor leading 54.5-45.5, little changed from its 54-46 result three weeks ago, but less commanding than its 57.3-42.7 result at the 2018 election. The primary votes are Labor 38% (up one, compared with 42.9% in 2018), Coalition 35% (down two, compared with 35.2%) and Greens 12% (down one, compared with 10.7%). Daniel Andrews is down five on approval to 46% and up four on disapproval to 48%, while Matthew Guy has “gone from a net approval rating of -20 three weeks ago to -25”, with exact numbers not provided. Andrews’ lead as preferred premier has narrowed from 52-33 to 51-35. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1226.
Game. Set. Match.
Antony will be thanking the ball boys and ball girls at 7.47pm.
Bugler
I can already hear media people saying ‘Why don’t people (us?) look at an election campaign in terms of policies rather than obsessing over who does or does not ‘hate’ Dan Andrews?’
Their general obsession with Andrews over any analysis of policy – past present or future – has been embarrassing (to me, probably not to them).
Alpo – no the TV panels will spin it as the triumph of the Teals and Greens just like the Federal election.
Wow, surprising poll. Can’t believe it’s true; surely should be 53/47. Now I know what it would have been like under the JBP regime in Queensland. That is, if the poll is realised.
Steve 777
How long since Malcolm Fraser said the Liberal Party was no longer a liberal party?
And resigned his membership
So it goes back a long, long time
Historyintime says:
Friday, November 25, 2022 at 11:27 pm
Wow, surprising poll. Can’t believe it’s true; surely should be 53/47. Now I know what it would have been like under the JBP regime in Queensland. That is, if the poll is realised.
——————————–
It might have been 53/47 if not for the Liberals putting in a shocker over their choice of candidates this week.
The WA liberals were smashed in 2017 and even harder in 2021.
It’s fanciful to imagine Victoria could be as bad tomorrow but what has to happen for the liberal party to change?
Losing seats federally to labor was bad enough, losing the heartland seats to the independents was worse.
It was the ultimate repudiation of what the liberals said they stood for.
What happens if independents win liberal seats tomorrow? Will the power brokers realise that power is pointless in opposition. Their WA counterparts haven’t figured that out yet.
Politics should be a battle of ideas and the liberals seem bereft of them.
I’ll cry myself the sleep tonight worrying about it.
Not.
“Evan says:
Friday, November 25, 2022 at 10:22 pm
The hatred towards Dan Andrews is something that puzzles me, but I am in Sydney so I guess I don’t understand the mentality of some Victorians.”
The mentality of some Victorians is the same as that of some NSW people. Just wait until the ALP wins next year NSW state election and watch how much media hatred will pour on Chris Minns. Same level of hatred that Anna Palaszczuk receives in Queensland. Note also that those three states are “Murdoch States”.
The good news, however, is that the manufactured media hatred and propaganda are fast losing capacity to swing voters… and that’s excellent for the health of our democracy.
Well I’ll break all my own rhetoric by substituting personal bias for actual numbers and go for 53/47. If Labor does get more than that I commit to cease posting on PB, which will actually be a benefit to myself given the personal aggravation involved in terms of the robotic pro Labor comments which seem to fester here.
Alpo
The good news, however, is that the manufactured media hatred and propaganda are fast losing capacity to swing voters… and that’s excellent for the health of our democracy.
—————————————
Its not manufactured because the lockdowns were difficult for many people and the pandemic was sometimes poorly handled but the Liberals are just not a viable alternative.
Historyintime says:
Friday, November 25, 2022 at 11:38 pm
Well I’ll break all my own rhetoric by substituting personal bias for actual numbers and go for 53/47. If Labor does get more than that I commit to cease posting on PB, which will actually be a benefit to myself given the personal aggravation involved in terms of the robotic pro Labor comments which seem to fester here.
中华人民共和国
Geez cobber that’s harsh on old Taylormade.
Historyintime says:
Friday, November 25, 2022 at 11:38 pm
Well I’ll break all my own rhetoric by substituting personal bias for actual numbers and go for 53/47. If Labor does get more than that I commit to cease posting on PB, which will actually be a benefit to myself given the personal aggravation involved in terms of the robotic pro Labor comments which seem to fester here.
—————————
But many of your comments bring something different from the usual endless chatter.
I guess that the Vic Libs will meet with Morrison tonight for a Miracle Spiritism Session….
Good luck Lobster, but please don’t summon Menzies’ spirit… You won’t like what he has to say to you and your mob.
There are plenty of cookers foaming at the mouth on twitter because Cook’s odds have shortened in recent hours.
Mulgrave:
Andrews (ALP) $1.25
Cook (Ind) $3.75
Liberal party are very confident of taking Sunbury off Labor.
Local Labor are aware.
Thanks Bystander, appreciate it!
On the topic of more Greens (and IND) seats coming back to haunt the Libs, that’s very true because those seats tend be harder to win for the simple reason they withstand whatever swing is going on against a major party. So if there is a swing against Labor in 2026, Greens and Independent seats will be harder for the Liberals to win than Labor seats, essentially shrinking their pool of potential gains.
As for my prediction tomorrow now, I think a Labor 2pp around 54% and the following seats changing hands:
Notional seats:
Ripon – ALP hold (sitting LNP MP loss)
Caulfield – ALP hold (sitting LNP MP loss)
Pakenham – LNP gain (no incumbent)
Morwell – ALP hold (no incumbent)
Mildura – Sitting IND MP gain (regain)
Hastings – Sitting LNP MP gain (regain)
Bayswater – Sitting ALP MP gain (regain)
Labor seats:
Hawthorn – LNP gain (?? Or maybe IND?)
Nepean – LNP gain
Richmond – GRN gain
Northcote – GRN gain
Melton – IND gain
I predict they hold Ashwood, Box Hill, Ringwood, Pascoe Vale, Albert Park, Werribee, Point Cook, Mulgrave, etc.
LNP seats:
Glen Waverley – ALP gain
Brighton – ALP gain (maybe)
Kew – IND gain
Benambra – IND gain
I think they will hold Sandringham (just), Warrandyte, Croydon, Evelyn, Eildon and South-West Coast. I’ll count Narracan as an LNP seat for now too.
That comes out at:
ALP 54 (-4 notional, -1 last election)
LNP 24 (-2 notional, -3 last election)
GRN 5 (+2)
IND 5 (+4 notional, +3 last election)
That would be a great result if it eventuates, it would also mean Southwick, Newbury and Staley all gone. Pesutto would be back (unless Lowe wins, that could go either way) and would become leader, but they would be going into the 2026 election needing to gain a whopping 21 seats…
@Dartmouth
You can get $9.00 for a Liberal win for Sunbury on Sportsbet, right now. If there’s any truth in the possibility of a Tory win I’d suggest a large investment.
Kevin, their respondent prefs get them closer to Resolve (there’s a public Redbridge?) than the last election preferences do is all I’m saying, and there doesn’t seem like any great reason to make that specific call in this case other than a spot of herding – the two preference methods give them two numbers to report, and they pick the “safer” one. If they have a better explanation of why they sometimes do respondent preference and sometimes last election preferences I am all ears. I’m not saying they are herding by massaging the weightings to produce an even closer number to other polling or any dodgy crap like that.
To me last election prefs have the better track record even if I have never understood why.
“Mexicanbeemer says:
Friday, November 25, 2022 at 11:39 pm
Alpo
The good news, however, is that the manufactured media hatred and propaganda are fast losing capacity to swing voters… and that’s excellent for the health of our democracy.
—————————————
Its not manufactured because the lockdowns were difficult for many people and the pandemic was sometimes poorly handled but the Liberals are just not a viable alternative.”
NSW handled the pandemic at least as badly or even worse than Victoria, but their “let it rip” strategy was supported by the media and their business backers, in spite of the deaths and sick people admitted to hospital. Moreover, the disaster, including deaths, in aged care facilities was a Federal responsibility. The lockdowns were explained to the people and were removed when vaccination became available. Had a majority been shocked by all that terrible lockdown experience, the ALP government would be toast at this election. But according to Newspoll (and other pollsters and betting agencies) they are not, in spite of a true war by the media against Andrews and the Vic ALP. I think that you should sit down and reconsider your personal views after a better analysis of the facts.
This could be a genuine belting.
EDIT: Alpo, I can’t say as I could say that better.
Here’s the thing about campaign volunteers, not specific to the Liberals: most of them have delusional ideas about how well their seat is going.
Young Liberals are the worst for it but hardly alone.
I used to live in a very safe Liberal seat and every election without fail I would be told by over enthusiastic Labor volunteers that things are going really well out there for us, the swing is on, this seat is going to surprise people etc etc and it never did. It was completely unsurprising.
As mentioned I now live in the seat of Hawthorn. I worked on the 2018 campaign and all the old sensible hands myself included had NO IDEA that Hawthorn was going to fall. The one time the unthinkable really did happen and the people on the ground had no idea we were facing anything more than maybe a gradual improvement in the Labor vote.
The Monique Ryan campaign was an exception where we thought something was happening AND it did, but I’ve never seen a local election be talked about so much in the community between neighbours, friends, family, shopkeepers etc as that one. Never ever.
Anyway, my point is that some Liberal campaign volunteers thinking Sunbury is on is like Matthew Guy thinking Ballarat was on in 2018 or the way off-base claims earlier this year that Labor would lose Eden-Monaro when they actually got a 7%+ swing to them. No credibility.
Granny Annysays:
Friday, November 25, 2022 at 10:56 pm
I just popped in because I thought Taylormade would have something to say about the newspoll result.
_____________________
As Macquire Bob was so fond of saying.
“The only poll that counts is on election day”
Well I put $10 on the Victorian socialists at 18:1
Just a shout-out to Trent too. I really value your analysis.
”
MABWMsays:
Friday, November 25, 2022 at 11:26 pm
Game. Set. Match.
Antony will be thanking the ball boys and ball girls at 7.47pm.
”
Not yet. Nothing is done till it is done.
Regarding the respondent allocated preferences, it could be because the pool of “others” is so much larger and made up differently compared to 2018.
From memory the “others” skewed a lot more left in 2018 than this year, then there’s also the “Put Labor last” campaign too, so it could be more accurate to use respondent allocated.
Insiders are sometimes the worst people to talk to. Local campaign people have a worm’s-eye view of things and are prone to exaggeration and over-enthusiasm. Sunbury? Yeah, right. But people higher up too: over-cautiousness is usually the problem there, but not always. I still remember a current federal minister I know telling me:
1) Queensland Labor couldn’t win in 2015; and
2) Menzies might be a boil-over for Labor – in 2019, based on ‘the amazing energy at the booths on the day’ and the brilliant candidate they had.
Alpo
I think that you should sit down and reconsider your personal views after a better analysis of the facts.
—————————–
I wasn’t talking about myself because i don’t hate Andrews and only criticise his government for wanting them to expand their inclusion policies to groups not benefiting from their social polices.
Pedant: “a grassroots split”
Only way to describe what’s happening to the liberals… and the LNP… right now.
That grassroots split if it shows here and at the NSW election – really may lead to a new party. Would have already in NZ system.
There seems to be an emerging core of voters who were Liberal and just won’t vote Liberal in their current incarnation. They’re not closet Labor or Green voters – they just seem lost to the Liberals.
”
Historyintimesays:
Friday, November 25, 2022 at 11:38 pm
Well I’ll break all my own rhetoric by substituting personal bias for actual numbers and go for 53/47. If Labor does get more than that I commit to cease posting on PB, which will actually be a benefit to myself given the personal aggravation involved in terms of the robotic pro Labor comments which seem to fester here.
”
Noted.
”
Dartmouthsays:
Friday, November 25, 2022 at 11:53 pm
Liberal party are very confident of taking Sunbury off Labor.
Local Labor are aware.
”
Noted.
”
Taylormadesays:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 12:14 am
Granny Annysays:
Friday, November 25, 2022 at 10:56 pm
I just popped in because I thought Taylormade would have something to say about the newspoll result.
_____________________
As Macquire Bob was so fond of saying.
“The only poll that counts is on election day”
”
Noted.
Trent – I have a bet on Labor in Brighton at odds of 15. If it does eventuate I’ll shout you a metaphorical drink (personally I’m giving Labor maybe 30-40% chance, but the odds are way too good).
Historyintime: “I’ll break all my own rhetoric by substituting personal bias for actual numbers and go for 53/47. If Labor does get more than that I commit to cease posting on PB,”
That seems a bit dramatic doesn’t it? You’re not droll. I’ve been wrong about some stuff since… like… forever. Don’t let being wrong stop you from having an opinion!
If the ALP picks up Brighton and Caulfield then holds Ashwood and Box Hill then they might be in with a strong chance of holding Hawthorn.
I thought Labor’s odds in Brighton were too long when they were $8, I’m just astounded they ballooned to $12-15 now, and after the Greens HTV cards were published with Labor above the IND too.
I support Labor but I think Vic Labor needs a change in leadership. I genuinely think Andrews reeks of corruption and covered up his involvement in the hotel quarantine scandal and I don’t like his coziness with China, which is the modern Nazi Germany, a corrupt authoritarian one party state committing genocide. Many of my fellow Victorians feel this way, but can’t say so in polite conversation, gets you branded as a pariah and “cooker”, but Andrews stranglehold on the party is an iron grip, so we have to settle for mediocrity. I genuinely can’t believe how support for Labor has evolved into a cult of personality in this state. Especially around someone so unlikeable and devoid of charisma or even good at being a politician.
Ya need to watch less youtube dawg.
Personally I think Labor will win, but by a much lower margin than the polls are predicting. Again, people are reluctant to openly say how they really feel. I also predict a swing to the greens in the inner city and to independents in conservative seats. Matthew Guys brand is toxic and bringing him back to the leadership is the worst decision the liberals could have possibly made. It’s hilarious actually. Truly embarrassing decision making. Does anyone in politics in Victoria understand anything about politics or marketing? It’s just an endless torrent of blunders from both sides. Absolute clown state.
@Blanket Criticism, people who don’t like Dan Andrews are generally not backwards in coming forward about it. I don’t think the polls would be missing those people.
If this Victorian election is sort of being touted as a litmus test as to whether the trends towards the Greens, Independents and other third parties of the previous Federal election continue, then I don’t think much will surprise other than perhaps an even larger than expected third party vote.
The Liberals and Nationals are increasingly seen across much of the country as out of touch and not worthy of being an alternative government. While that is the case and you have a long term Labor government that not all are excited about, then we should see a sharp rise in vote for the others due to the lack of a credible alternative however it’s not clear how that vote materialises in a way other than a modest increase in crossbench seats in the lower house.
Would expect to see Labor returned with a slightly reduced majority tomorrow, something like ALP – 52, LNP – 24, Others – 12 although anything from an increased Labor majority to a Labor minority government are within the range of plausible outcomes.
Newspoll have read the tea leaves.
Is it an exact science ?
“there is special providence in the fall of a sparrow”
@Adam
Depends where you live.
It’s all about perceptions, as a Labor supporter I feel less comfortable admitting it in public now in case one of the Hang Dan people is about and wants to take issue with my complete and utter stupidity….
I don’t see the climate being as restrictive to those anti Dan views as you do but who knows for sure?
Comments on the upper house.
Obligatory I am not good at election analysis
For anyone who doesn’t know the GTV election system is just like the senate after the group tickets go through. Candidates get elected on a quota of 16.66, and all those who reach this percentage of the vote immediately get elected. Then the left over vote transfers elsewhere. For example if I voted for labors first candidate, and then they got elected with 33.33 % of the vote, 2x their quota, when my vote naturally flowed to cathrine cumming it would be worth 50% of what it was. Once all quotas have been met and if there are still quotas left to be filled, candidates are eliminated and their preferences flow until 5 quotas are met.
I reckon this is a tale of 3 voting blocs
– Left: Labor, Greens, Socialists, Reason, Cannabis, AJP
– Right: Liberal, Uap, Pets and Companions, One nation, Family first, Freedom
– Druery : Sack Dan Andrews, SFF, Health Australia, Derryn Hinch Justice, New Democrats, DLP, Sustainable Australia, Liberal Democrats, Transport matters
(The only party which doesn’t primarily shift its preferences to one voting bloc is Angry Victorians, but they are mostly irrelevant and I’ll get to them when they need to be noted)
The right doesn’t really have a strategy. The uap and pets just preference libs, and the libs just preference uap. All preference right wing party they think can win. FF and freedom preference each other, and ON just picks whichever cooker has the better chance. If they are eliminated their preferences generally flow to cookers first, with the Uap and Lib favouring the greens before labor and the rest favouring labor before the greens
This generally would result in the winner between the uap and the remaining lib vote, versus the winner of the rest of the cooker vote in an elimination where the winner claims all of the right vote which hasn’t exceeded a quota. Think a situation where libs are left with 4%, Uap have 3%, FF has 2% and On has 4%, after uap and ff are eliminated its On 6%vs lib 7% in which the lib now has a total of 13%
The left’s strategy is somewhat simple – preference a selected left minor party first in one district and then flow onto the rest of the alliance. Generally the flow then goes Druery, Liberal, rest of right. (The are not averse to a little strategy if they think a left-leaning druery party can win a seat not on the left)
The game here is whether the left wing parties can piggyback off each other to beat the green primary, in which the minor left or the greens get the remainder.
Druerys strategy seems to be to have all parties preference one candidate or two together and then for parties to go on their merry way, preferencing who they choose. It is important to note that no druery party puts majors ahead of other druery parties, but a large number of them have cookers amongst the druery parties on their lists.
I believe there is one change up electorally in the upper house and one electoral mechanic which is important to understand.
The changeup is the introduction of One nation and UAP into the victorian election. They won 7% of the vote last election, and it is not known whether they will poll this high again – they might not, Clive isn’t forking the big bucks or running lower house candidates and pauline hasn’t even come down. If they do, the bigger question is where does this vote come from – Does it come from labor, who lost large swathes of voters in the west and south east to cookers, does it come from liberals, who lost primary vote share or does it come from glen druery, as his block of parties has only faced threats from the religious right, not the cookers. In the federal election, the only one of his key vote earners to gain votes was the LDP and not by much. SFF and DHJ vote tanked heavily. It must be noted many of these organisation were not on the ballot, and parties such as the DLP and New Democrats seem to have some value, but it is not known where it will flow.
Now the mechanism is a thing I like to call “exclusion zones” basically, while there are 6 groups of 16.66 in 100, only 5 quotas are awarded. This should be because in a GOOD stv system vote leaks over time as preferences exhaust. The issue is that because the GVT is a aberration against god, preferences just don’t leak, which lead to 16.66 percent of the vote NOT GETTING COUNTED TOWARDS A QUOTA. This is what screwed over the greens in Southern and North-Eastern metro, Druery in North-Metro, and the Libs in, Nothern and Western Victoria, and South East Metro.
Finally I will be Predicting three scenarios
Best result for left – where the greens and druery absorb the other vote and labor decline
My predicted outcome
Best result for right – where the cookers absorb the glen druery vote and take disenchanted labor vote
Without further ado , I will move on to the reigons
Northern Metro
I reckon 2 Lab, 1 Grn and 1 Lib are likely (there is a scenario where labor lose more then 9% to cookers and greens then get exclusion zoned for a 1 lab, 1 VS, 1 Grn, 1 Dlp, 1 Lib finish, but more likely is labor makes it back on preferences)
The lib will probably need to be propped up by uap as i reckon they lose primary to the cookers.
All of gruery’s gang are preferencing the DLP along with the cookers.
I’d argue that the person who comes first between vs and Reason is the first notable contest here. Reason get preferences from Legalise Cannabis, the greens and labor, but VS is running a much better campaign and has AJP preferences. I reckon labor preferences aren’t going into it immediately due to Hinch and health australias preferencing of labors third candidate first to try and keep out the progressive parties, the question will be, how much will green primary increase, because that flows directly to reason,and is likely to be lower then reasons and cannabis’ combined primary. I still believe that the victorian socialists will increase their vote by a wide margin. due to their door knocking of 95,000 doors.
It is for this same reason I believe that Victorian socialists will beat out the DLP and win the fourth spot. However the cookers had big swings here federally, and I would not rule out the DLP.
Best case for left and my predicted outcome : 2 Lab, 1 Grn, 1 VS, 1 Lib
(Fun fact: the combined vote which preferences the libs over all of labor, reason, greens and vs is only 20.6 from last election – theoretically, if glen druery’s alliance did well but was cut short by libs, reason, VS and labor 3rd candidate – the elimination of someurek could reduce the right to 0 seats here if there was a 5% swing against them again)
Best case for right: 2 Lab, 1 Grn, 1 Dlp, 1 Lib
Western Metropolitan
2 Lab, 1 Lib are locked in (Hypothetically if the there is a big swing against either party from both sides this could reduce them down by one, but I doubt it)
The dlp and a split of Cannabis and VS are favoured here by their respective voting blocs.
The last two seats are the problem. I believe a strong VS campaign will ensure that combined, labor, the left and the greens will hold one of these seats. The combined left already hold almost 60% and they only need 50% without factoring in the VS or the introduction of legalise cannabis, which polled 3% of the vote in may. I believe Vs is the best positioned to take this.
The next seat will probaly be a fight amongst the cookers – All have good claims – Uap and ON had good results here in may, cathrine cumming landed a preference deal with reason -I just think that DLP having the backing of FF and the druery alliance. I reckon with cooker preferences they win this – however if the left increase their margin up to 66% or druery is exclusioned this might be different
One curveball are the new democrats, a party seemingly solely based off the south asian community. I think they deserve a good look over – given they are the only party that managed to form from the machinations of a single ditched mp – Someurek, Cumming and Finn all had ro join existing networks to stay afloat. If kaushaliya vaghela can beat the Dlp with the indian vote in the early counting , it would reroute preferences to another cooker party instead of the DLP resulting in a race where if the cookers are eliminated Vaghela wins, if the Left is eliminated Vaghela wins, and if vaghela is eliminated it become a close race between the left and the cookers
Best scenario for left : 2 Lab, 1 Grn, 1 VS, 1, Lib
Most likely outcome: 2 Lab, 1 VS, 1 DLP, 1 Lib
Best for right: 2 Lab, 1 VS, 1 On, 1 Lib
Western Victoria
Locked in – 1 Lab, 1 Lib
– Left Pushing AJP, – Duery pushing DHJ
Unless things get nasty with the rural ON swing I see labor pulling in another seat on primaries – they can afford to lose 4% in an area they gained in federally and still hold 2,
In the same sense, The unholy alliance that deprived the liberals of that second seat has shattered and unless the sff and DHJ hold against On and uap, libs should get that second seat back.
The last seat is probably going to be an AJP seat- they have good preferences with both Druery and the left. However, if the greens vote increases to say 10%, certainly not unreasonable, then animal justice should get pipped and the greens get in, especially as I expect the remaining duery vote to be held up quite neatly in the exclusion zone.
Best case for left: Lab 2, Grn 1, AJP 1, Lib 1
Most likely : Lab 2, AJP 1, Lib 2
Besr case for right: Lab 2, ON 1, Lib 2
(Note that Lab 2, DHJ 1 and Lib 2 and Lab 2, Grn 1, DHJ 1, LIb 1 are both viable outcomes)
Northern Victoria
Lab 1, Lib 1, AJP 1
– Druery pushing AJP and Lib Dems – Left Pushing AJP
The druery sting operation has almost guaranteed AJP this seat, Duery and the left would have to do abysmally across the board for this to fail.
The main contenders for the next two seats are Labor, Nats, On and SFF. If SFF manages to keep its primary high it has a good very good shot out of the lib dem wreckage. Its how much ON takes from SFF which is the problem and I suspect they might take a mile. Goeff shaw is not getting in. I beleive the influx of cookers will ensure the libs don’t make 2 instant quotas, meaning his only major source of preferences will be depleted. Important to note that left parties are funnelling their primaries straight to labor after AJP
Best case for left : 2 Lab, 1 AJP, 1 SFF, 1 Lib
Most Probable : 2 Lab, 1 AJP, 1 Lib, 1 Nat
Best Case for right: 1 Lab, 1 AJP, 1 On, 1 Nat, 1 Lib
Eastern Victoria
Lock in – 1 Lab, 1 Lib
Left pushing – Legalise – Duery pushing Health australia and SFF
Pretty much the only place I reckon is going to be nasty for the left, On will get good swings and preferences and the SFF seat is in jeopardy. There will not be a left seat other then labor here due to the left funnelling primaries to labor to avoid the horror of the exclusion zone
Best case for left: 2 Lab, 1 Sff, 1 Nat, 1 Lib
Best case for right and most probable : 2 Lab, 1 On, 1 Nat, 1 Lib
South east metro
Lock in 1 Lab, 1 Lib
– Left Pushing Legalise, – Druery pushing Hinch and Lib dems
This will be a very good test at how much of labors primary did it lose to cookers. If right wing parties do well they van very easily push the libs to 2 seats and with druery push the lib dems in as well. Still it will be heard to do – Labor currently holds nearly 50% of the primary, on top of the greens. Derryn hinchs personal vote will make a difference in whether the LDP takes this.
Best case for left : 3 Lab, 1 DHJ, 1 Lib
Most probable : 2 Lab, 1 DHJ, 2 Lib
Best case for right: 2 Lab, 1 Lib Dem, 2 Lib
NORTH EASTERN METRO
Lock in – Lab 1, Lib 1
Druery pushing – Transport matters, Left Pushing – Reason
I do believe that labor will not drop in primary enough to not gain 2 seats on quota, they seems to be doing well here. Liberals will probably be able to hold with what little Cooker vote exists here
Rod barton has preferences all over – I just dont think he’ll be able to cash in on them. Greens are already on 9% and should gain, along with preferences. I just think TM will be forced to live in the exclusion zone. I believe that because he’s an mp, he’ll last enough to get the druery preferences.
Reason won’t gain here, there isn’t enough loose left wing vote for them to challenge the greens before exclusion
Best case for Left: 2 Lab, 1 Grn, 1TM, 1 Lib
Most probable: 2 Lab, 1 Grn, 2 Lib
Best case for right: 2 Lab, 1 TM, 2 Lib
Southern metro
Left pushing-Greens. Druery pushing Sustainable Austalia
Lock in- Lab 1, Grn 1, Lib 1
Greens will gain one, probably on primary alone, but definitely on support from the left. Labor should be able to hold as well barring some sort of unwarranted liberal recovery whcih would flow to Sustainable. Liberals Have enough vote here. I am still expecting some drop in support due to a bad liberal campaign and a strong teal one. One possibility could be that clifford hayes might lose on primaries early on. If that is the case, the AJP might get a large preference flow to it, but the flow is too complex to plan out anyway.
Best case for left: 2 Lab, 1 Grn, 1 AJP, 1 Lib
Most probable: 2 Lab, 1 Grn, 2 Lib
Best case for right: 1 Lab, 1 Grn, 1 Sus, 2 Lib
Final figures
Best Case for left – Lab – 17, Grn – 5, AJP -3, VS -2, SFF – 2, TM -1, DHJ – 1, Lib – 8, Nat – 1
Most Probable – Lab – 16 Grn – 3, VS- 2, AJP – 2, DLP 1, Nat 2, Lib 12
Best Case for right – Lab – 14, Grn- 2, AJP, 1, TM 1 DLP 2, ON 4, Nat 2, LD 1, Lib 14
I’d make a point that despite working for the lib dems, druery has really screwed them over politically.
Also On the topic of the lower house – I was an idiot for ever thinking berwick was lab gain, and I reckon Virginia tachos in St Albans, Paul hopper in werribee and geatano greco in preston all have strong chances which are being overlooked
This was all made possible by Antony greens tireless work in assembling legible GVT’s online,
Read them here – https://antonygreen.com.au/group-voting-tickets-published-for-the-victorian-legislative-council-election/
Historyintime: “Now I know what it would have been like under the JBP regime in Queensland.”
No, HIT, you really don’t.
For one, in the Joh Bjelke-Petersen era, it was the government — not the opposition — who dined with mobsters.
Sextus Pompey: “For anyone who doesn’t know the GTV election system is just like the senate after the group tickets go through.”
Group voting tickets were eliminated from the Senate voting system after 2013.
In the past three Federal elections, voters’ preferences have gone only to where each voter has individually marked on their ballot paper.
“… the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters (JSCEM) …recommended substantial changes to the Senate voting system. Significant recommendations included abolishing group voting tickets and implementing optional preferential voting both above and below the line …”
A reform opposed by Labor, incidentally. I recall Stephen Conroy carrying on like a pork during JCDEM hearings, giving expert witnesses a hard time.
https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BriefingBook45p/SenateVotingReform
Blanket Criticism: “I support Labor but …”
Now there’s a novel opening line!
🙂
The Murdoch Rag Hun conceding Labor looks headed toward “scraping a third term” off a 54.5 2pp in Newspoll.
Imagine if the poll result was the other way round.
This paper seems like the only one in a lot of cafes and other places. Is their readership really on the decline and is it really true that their audience is mostly elderly?
Benita Kolovos in the Guardian:
“According to sources within Liberal and Labor, the strategy [of focusing o. Andrews) has been working.”
(Published a couple of hours after Newspoll dropped, but presumably not informed by it.)
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/nov/26/no-matter-who-wins-both-major-parties-have-made-this-victorian-poll-the-daniel-andrews-election