The Australian reports the Victorian election eve Newspoll has Labor leading 54.5-45.5, little changed from its 54-46 result three weeks ago, but less commanding than its 57.3-42.7 result at the 2018 election. The primary votes are Labor 38% (up one, compared with 42.9% in 2018), Coalition 35% (down two, compared with 35.2%) and Greens 12% (down one, compared with 10.7%). Daniel Andrews is down five on approval to 46% and up four on disapproval to 48%, while Matthew Guy has “gone from a net approval rating of -20 three weeks ago to -25”, with exact numbers not provided. Andrews’ lead as preferred premier has narrowed from 52-33 to 51-35. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1226.
The deed is done and one notable difference from the federal election was that people were taking HTV cards.
Diblib @ #184 Saturday, November 26th, 2022 – 11:44 am
Interested to note that VEC is not using the usual school near us as a polling booth today.
Different school further down the road is in use. Confusing at best for those assuming all the normal arrangements.
laughtong says:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 11:23 am
Victoria @ #154 Saturday, November 26th, 2022 – 9:53 am
Laughtong
“Is your community appreciating the new railway crossing?
Very much so.”
And here in Brissie, we’re just jealous. C’mon Anna, do a Dan.
“Self-praise is no recommendation”
Tell that to Daniel Andrews.
Know one person that doesn’t normally support the ALP but loves Dan so was confused why there were two labor parties.
Just popping in here to say good luck to Zoomster today while recognising the odds are somewhat stacked against her.
Edit: changed two words for clarity.
Cronus 1242pm
I hadn’t realised how many level crossings there were in Brisbane until I was driving around between the Gabba and the Airport and the city earlier this year. When we lived on the Gold Coast I suppose we only ever came straight up the main roads to the CBD when visiting Brisbane.
In Melbourne they did a lot of grade separation in the Depression to create jobs. Going out east this stopped about 10km out – until the recent push.
Wild that Reason are sticking with their disastrous rebrand from the last election. Also strange that the Greens gave them such a low preference on their HTV’s. What’s their problem with Reason?
A queue like this?
“Paul Sakkal reporting that internal liberal polling has them in a much better position than what we all think”
They said that in the 2018 State and at the 2022 Federal too. Do journalists not get bored of being fed the same lines?
I was surprised that Victoria has only 88 lower house seats. Queensland has 93, though it has no upper house. In any case, I went to the Inernet to see how that varies across States and Territories. It’s consistent. The more people, the more people per seat.
Lower House seats and constituents per seat
State .. seats .. population .. constituents/seat
NSW ....... 93 .. 8,130,100 .. 87,420
Vic ....... 88 .. 6,593,300 .. 74,924
Qld ....... 93 .. 5,296,100 .. 56,947
WA ........ 59 .. 2,773,400 .. 47,007
SA ........ 47 .. 1,815,500 .. 38,628
Tas ....... 25 .... 571,200 .. 22,848
ACT ....... 25 .... 455,900 .. 18,236
NT ........ 25 .... 250,400 .. 10,016
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electorates_of_the_Australian_states_and_territories#Australian_Capital_Territory
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/latest-release#states-and-territories
Interesting too, that Australia’s population increased by 0.9% over the last year, but that Qld (1.9%) and WA (1.2%) exceeded this, SA (0.9%) matched it, and every other jurisdiction was below the national average.
Taylor, your mob have backed the violent cookers who have turned people off VEC work at this election and caused people like me to vote early for the first time just to avoid risking my family caught up in any incidents. For you to complain that maybe the VEC, between volunteer difficulties and COVID and the shortage of workers that nearly every industry faces at the moment, has made you wait an extra 5 minutes in a queue?
Seriously, even for your usual trolling that’s a new low. Go take a good hard look at yourself in the mirror and ask yourself why you spend time here making up such dumb complaints.
There is a story from the 1994 South African election –
A white woman in a long queue said “This is ridiculous- I’ve been waiting two hours to vote”. The black woman behind her in the queue replied “I’ve been waiting fifty years, all my adult life”
Democracy is precious and the alternatives don’t bear thinking about.
@blanket criticism.
Greens just preference simply – how much does their policy position align.
Reason are a centre right party, but populated by people with brains and hearts.
They’re good people, trying to improve the country. But there’s no reason greens should preference them too high
Late Riser: “Victoria has only 88 lower house seats. Queensland has 93”
Palaszczuk agreed to an increase from 89 to 93 in a deal with Robert Katter III and his Kattermite colleagues, back when they held the balance of power.
@Late Riser
It’s the 88 number that gets me. Surely 87 or 89 is the more appropriate choice. Only dumb luck has stopped it being a 44-44 split, came very close in 2010 in particular.
Bennelong Lurker @ #204 Saturday, November 26th, 2022 – 12:47 pm
Plus many. Good luck Zoomster
Rocket Rocket says:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 12:51 pm
Cronus 1242pm
I hadn’t realised how many level crossings there were in Brisbane until I was driving around between the Gabba and the Airport and the city earlier this year. When we lived on the Gold Coast I suppose we only ever came straight up the main roads to the CBD when visiting Brisbane.
In Melbourne they did a lot of grade separation in the Depression to create jobs. Going out east this stopped about 10km out – until the recent push.
———————————————————————————————
I live in the North-Western outskirts of Brisbane, about 30 km from the CBD. I can travel in traversing only one level crossing but everyone does the same thing (avoiding all the level crossings) meaning it’s a long trip. With the Olympics coming in 2032 and SEQ growing and expanding rapidly, I think we need to copy Victoria and immediately begin addressing this issue to help maintain the quality of life we currently enjoy from a transport perspective.
Arky says:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 12:54 pm
“Paul Sakkal reporting that internal liberal polling has them in a much better position than what we all think”
They said that in the 2018 State and at the 2022 Federal too. Do journalists not get bored of being fed the same lines?
——————————————————————————————
Being a QLDer I had to research Paul Sakkal. Suffice to say I now know he’s no fan of Andrews from my reading. As a member of the Costello media, I’m unsurprised by his apparent misinformation regarding late polling.
@ Voice endeavour
I always viewed them as centre left and slightly libertarian, unless their policy platform has changed dramatically recently. Their core arguments at the last election seem to be legalisation of cannabis and euthanasia. They are definitely trying to present themselves as centre right, their marketing material are teal ffs, but again, I think that’s a disastrous marketing choice and I think the centre right or just plain centre voters they were trying to court never showed up.
https://www.reason.org.au/policy_suite
This policy suite does not feel “centre right” to me.
The Victorian election – seen from over on our side of the Rabbit Proof – seems a lot of hysteria over not much…
If this were a Federal Election and the LNP were 55-45 to Labor – from the last credible opinion poll before the election takes place, the LNP friendly media would be screaming such as “Landslide likley to LNP”/”Labor likely Ousted in Catastrophic Election”/”Labor Leader found be wanting”/”The People Have Spoken”/”Labor Faces annihilation/Ten Years in Opposition”…………and lots of similar stuff……..
I am sure many here can remember heaps of such gloating from the so-called responsible media outlets.
@blanket – reason are libertarians, you’re spot on. They agree very well with the greens on most social policies.
But greens and reason don’t agree economically.
As with others – Good Luck Zoomster – you have done Mother Labor proud. You are a top Cobber.
Will try and have a gander at results later.
People complaining about waiting a few minutes to vote reminds me of the time when I was a AEC worker in the 80s.
Some angry white middle-aged male gave me a spray about a few minutes’ wait and the whole thing was watched by a senior AEC official who was visiting the polling place.
He praised me for defusing the situation and then related how he was just back from somewhere in Africa where he was part of a team observing an election.
He said people had walked for days to the polling place. Sat for days waiting for it to open and then walked home again.
If you don’t want to wait go after lunch when things are usually much quieter. Or prepoll. Or postal. It aint that hard.
Except for angry white middle-aged males.
It’s mainly so that each region is equally represented in the upper house – each of the 8 regions cover 11 lower house seats, so they settled on 88 so all regions are equally proportioned.
Personally, I would’ve thought a better option was that there be 91 lower house seats, with an odd number to prevent deadlocks of 44-44 as is the risk now, and there be 7 upper house regions, covering 13 seats each, with each region returning 6 MLC’s for a total of 42. But I suppose when they were reforming the system between 2002-06 they had their reasons to make it how it is.
Late Riser:
Tasmania has passed legislation to increase its lower house back to 35 seats at the next election, so that’ll mess up your nice linear relationship.
”
Justin from Geelongsays:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 7:26 am
The front page of our local paper, the Geelong Advertiser: “Too big a hill to win for Labor” Apparently this is what peak denial looks like in the Murdoch universe. The four lower house state seats in Geelong are held by the ALP (two MPs retiring at this election), and both fed seats are held by ALP. With their own polling saying 54.5% ALP I just don’t get it, is this satire? Perhaps Taylormade (from Corangamite I believe) could explain it to me. I’m off to set up my local booth, too busy to read the inside pages.
”
Justin
TaylorMade already posted that the counts is one conducted on election day.
Ven says:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 1:37 pm
”
Justin from Geelongsays:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 7:26 am
The front page of our local paper, the Geelong Advertiser: “Too big a hill to win for Labor” Apparently this is what peak denial looks like in the Murdoch universe. The four lower house state seats in Geelong are held by the ALP (two MPs retiring at this election), and both fed seats are held by ALP. With their own polling saying 54.5% ALP I just don’t get it, is this satire? Perhaps Taylormade (from Corangamite I believe) could explain it to me. I’m off to set up my local booth, too busy to read the inside pages.
”
Justin
TaylorMade already posted that the counts is one conducted on election day.
中华人民共和国
Taylormade also posted that he was going to get his name marked off and spoil his ballot as it wasn’t worth anything because of the corrupt VEC. LOL Taylormade
The “hill” to which the Geelong Advertiser headline refers is Polwarth.
@ Grime1231pm
Nah, raw prawns are bad for you, as is lobster. Even worse when the Cookers are in charge in the kitchen….
caf
Yeah, but it’s Qld that stuffs the simple straight line. Qld should really have only 83 seats (or even as low as 81) if it wanted to lie on the trend line. But as noted, there’s no upper house. Perhaps it looks different when upper house seats are part of the analysis. And as always, geography applies its own logic.
Late Riser says:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 1:52 pm
caf
Yeah, but it’s Qld that stuffs the simple straight line. Qld should really have only 83 seats (or even as low as 81) if it wanted to lie on the trend line. But as noted, there’s no upper house. Perhaps it looks different when upper house seats are part of the analysis. And as always, geography applies its own logic.
中华人民共和国
LR yes it would be interesting to see the figures if Upper Houses were added on a per person basis.
Also distance. The State Electorate of Traeger in Queensland is 429,000 sq/km. The whole of Victoria is just over 222,000 sq/km. Queensland also still has some regional tolerances after the EARC recommendations post Fitzgerald.
I voted in Bayswater earlier today at about 9.30 am and there were very long queues. No sign of anger or sense that voters wanted to ‘punish’ Labor. In fact it was very quiet. I only had a labor HTVC and a dumb dumb DLPer tried to give me his card saying vote for ‘real Labor’ all he got was a very loud laugh. Taylor has been the best local member sate or or federal in my 53 years of living here and I will be shocked if he isn’t returned. In contrast, Wakeling did nothing for the area even when the Tories were in government. he has been very subdued throughout.
Kirsdarke says:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 1:35 pm
It’s mainly so that each region is equally represented in the upper house – each of the 8 regions cover 11 lower house seats, so they settled on 88 so all regions are equally proportioned.
Personally, I would’ve thought a better option was that there be 91 lower house seats, with an odd number to prevent deadlocks of 44-44 as is the risk now, and there be 7 upper house regions, covering 13 seats each, with each region returning 6 MLC’s for a total of 42. But I suppose when they were reforming the system between 2002-06 they had their reasons to make it how it is.
*******
Steve Bracks had made a public commitment on behalf of Labor not to increase the total number of MPs. There were some internal discussions along the lines you suggested, but they all fell to the moral/political imperative not to breach that commitment.
William Bowesays:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 1:44 pm
The “hill” to which the Geelong Advertiser headline refers is Polwarth.
_____________________
Yep. You just had to go to page 10 and actually read the article.
Its not that difficult.
I hope they have good scrutineers at Justin’s booth if he can’t even work that out.
Taylormade says:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 2:26 pm
William Bowesays:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 1:44 pm
The “hill” to which the Geelong Advertiser headline refers is Polwarth.
_____________________
Yep. You just had to go to page 10 and actually read the article.
Its not that difficult.
I hope they have good scrutineers at Justin’s booth if he can’t even work that out.
中华人民共和国
LOL Taylormade. Did you get your name crossed off and screw up your ballot like you told us earlier matey? Hope “the corrupt” VEC ticked your name off.
Greens, Labor and the Socialists out in force across a number of larger booths in Footscray. Zero Liberal presence.
My tip is re-election for Labor, but it’ll be the next Richmond in 2026.
Sportsbet odds: odds of Liberals winning have drifted from 6.00 to 7.00 in the last hour, make of that what you will.
Upnorth says:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 2:35 pm
LOL Taylormade. Did you get your name crossed off and screw up your ballot like you told us earlier matey? Hope “the corrupt” VEC ticked your name off.
———————————-
LOL Taylormade
@andrewmck
Ah, okay. Thanks for clearing that up.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/11/25/newspoll-54-5-45-5-to-labor-in-victoria/comment-page-5/#comment-4016514
With all the real issues out there, such as governance (PM+), Wuflu, climate, inequality, powershift rehashing major party talking points is just lazy cheerleading
The failed estate
Stokes
Costello FewFacts
…
Murdoch Infoinment
OK. Just for you Upnorth. 🙂
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliaments_of_the_Australian_states_and_territories#States_and_territories
Don’t vote Dan because he bites the heads off whippets!
Liberals pepper marginal electorates with ‘ditch Dan’ text messages
By Ashleigh McMillan
A number of Victorian voters have received Liberal-endorsed text messages today urging them to “ditch Dan”.
The messages have been sent to voters in marginal seats, such as Caulfield, where Liberal incumbent David Southwick is under siege from independent Nomi Kaltmann and Labor candidate Lior Harel.
The ‘ditch Dan’ messages were authorised by the state director of the Victorian division of the Liberal Party, Charles ‘Sam’ McQuestin.
Text messages sent on polling day have been a controversial topic for many years.
Earlier this year, after it was disclosed an asylum seeker boat had arrived ahead of the federal election, the Liberal Party began texting voters in marginal seats: “BREAKING – Aust Border Force has intercepted an illegal boat trying to reach Aus. Keep our borders secure by voting Liberal today.”
In 2016, the Queensland Labor Party sent an election-day text message to voters claiming Medicare was under threat from the Coalition.
“In 2016, the Queensland Labor Party sent an election-day text message to voters claiming Medicare was under threat from the Coalition.”
… followed by another claiming that night follows day.
From here in WA it looks like Dan’s lot will be 50+.
Why the Thorpe Greens will improve their representation is beyond comprehension. Where will their increased votes come from?
Medicare has always been under threat from the Coalition.
Like trashing unions, fair wages for workers – trashing Medibank and later Medicare is a vital component of the LNP DNA.
The fact that payments to GPs were left at 2012 levels is a testimony as to why many GPs have had to set patient fees or abandon sole Medicare payments, in order to keep their practice viable. Another great LNP strategy to ensure Medicare for everyone.
I terminated my subscription to “The Age” a few years ago now – but retained the app on my phone to read the articles of Gittens and Maley (as free articles they allow per month)
Apart from that I scan their headlines (without an ability to read the article)
Post this election I will take the next retribution step against “The Age” and remove the app from my phone – and tell them I have done so
Conveying my apologies to Gittens and Maley
The Guardian is the go to site – and not behind paywalls
I do not have the ABC app on my phone
Only the Guardian and SBS
There are many I know who have reacted as I have
So what audience do MSM have apart from noise in the background – apart from Media Watch of course
In my view, apart from Gittens and Maley, there are no credible sources in MSM (Tingle is good but you have to endure the officious presenter to get to her contributions, a step too far)
That is where MSM has degenerated to
My main go to News service is the 1PM service on SBS, out of the USA and a public service so balanced
And just in regards media, how many have failed financially and why?
Late Riser says:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 3:03 pm
OK. Just for you Upnorth.
中华人民共和国
You cobber are a bloody champion! 🙂 always wanted to do the exercise myself.
I reckon if we interlaced “Local Government” reps as well would be interesting, given the non-amalgamation of “Local Government” outside Queensland. Thanks again matey.
I’m at the booth in Lancefield. No voters here but there are 6 freedumb Pentecostal volunteers here.
Cookers can’t count.