The Age brings a Resolve Strategic poll (not on the website at the time of posting but in today’s print edition) showing a substantial narrowing since the blowout Labor lead the pollster recorded at the start of the campaign four weeks ago, with Labor and the Coalition tied on 36% of the primary vote, having respectively dropped two and gained five. The Greens are down two to 10%, and where the previous poll had independents on 12% and others on 6%, this one has it the other way round – probably in part reflecting a change in response options following the closure of nominations. This translates to a two-party preferred of 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with 59-41 last time. Daniel Andrews’ lead as preferred premier has narrowed from 49-28 to 48-34. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1000.
Other news from the past three days:
• The election for the Gippsland seat of Narracan will not proceed on Saturday following the death of Nationals candidate Shaun Gilchrist. The death of a candidate between the closure of nominations and polling day results in the election for the seat being declared void and a supplementary election being held at a later time. This last happened in 1999 in the seat of Frankston East, when Liberal-turned-independent Peter McLellan died on the day of the election itself. When the election subsequently produced a hung parliament, great weight was placed on the result of the Frankston East supplementary election four weeks later, at which Labor’s win resolved any doubt that the three independents would use their numbers to depose Jeff Kennett’s government and put Labor in power under Steve Bracks. Narracan is unlikely to prove so decisive, which likely loomed as a contest between the Liberals and the Nationals following the retirement of Liberal incumbent Gary Blackwood.
• Matthew Guy said arch-conservative upper house candidate Renee Heath would not be allowed to join the Liberal party room after 60 Minutes and The Age reported on her involvement with religious conservative political organisations, notwithstanding that her links to the City Builders Church were a matter of considerable controversy when she was preselected for Eastern Victoria region in August. Tim Smith, outgoing Liberal member for Kew and estranged former ally of Guy, said on Twitter that Guy had no such power and described the decision as cultural Marxism. Coming well after the close of nominations, the episode does not affect Heath’s place at the top of the party ticket, from which she is seemingly sure to win election. The Age reported yesterday that Heath had engaged lawyers and was considering a religious discrimination complaint against the party in the Australian Human Rights Commission.
• The Age published a recording on Sunday of a freewheeling political exchange involving Timothy Dragan, Liberal candidate for Narre Warren North, at pre-poll booth last week. The recording finds Dragan describing Liberal front-bencher Brad Battin a “prick”, declaring himself “100 per cent” opposed to an Indigenous treaty on the grounds that “we won this land fair and square”, and saying that if elected he will vote against his own party’s emissions targets.
• Police are investigating Catherine Cumming, independent MLC and candidate for the Angry Victorians party, after she told an anti-lockdown rally outside Flinders Street Station of her ambition “to make Daniel Andrews turn into red mist”. For the benefit of those not sharing her army reserve background, Cumming clarified that this involved, in its milder pink form, blowing the subject up. Cumming now argues that she was in fact referring to the red shirts affair. Noting the positions of Angry Victorians and other micro-party parties of the right on their group voting tickets, Deputy Premier Jacinta Allan accused the Liberals of preferencing “Nazis”, prompting a rebuke from Anti-Defamation Commission chairman Dvir Abramovich.
• The impact of the Liberal Party’s change of preference strategy, in which it will place the Greens ahead of Labor as part of a “put Labor last strategy”, is analysed by Antony Green and Kevin Bonham, the latter focusing specifically on the seat of Pascoe Vale, which Bonham argues is a stronger possibility for the Greens than betting markets suggest.
Bobby, if you’re really that old, here’s a song you’ll remember:
“Hey, good lookin’
What ya got cookin’?
How’s about cookin’ something up with me?”
@ Bobby
Talking of echo chambers, what’s it like in yours?
Talking about ” the average Joe…..surely he’s/ she’s voting Liberal”
How the hell can you make that claim?
It seems just like yet another poster claiming to know how the “average Joe” thinks. And add to that you live in the real world and Labor posters here never have contact with anyone else in the real world…..
Even us guys in our ” echo chamber” don’t claim to know that. Please give more than one example of us doing so.
Otherwise, have a nice day.
What did your polls say in the 2018 federal election hmmm labour win??
What happened in SA this year hmmm change of government
Definitely a downmarket trend here:
‘Jeremy’
|
‘Michael’
|
‘Bobby’
It’s frankly quite weird how cookers flame out with monotonous regularity on this site because they fail to grasp what psephology is. On a psephology site.
Bobby: “What did your polls say in the 2018 federal election hmmm labour win??”
Google it.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/11/22/yougov-galaxy-53-47-labor-victoria/
oh…. do you mean the 2019 federal election?
https://www.pollbludger.net/category/federal-election-2019/page/6/
Oliver I don’t claim to be that old, just older than that 20yr old Alpo boy. And yes that’s a great song heard it when I played GTA vice city or san andreeas
Bobby says:
“What did your polls say in the 2018 federal election hmmm labour [sic] win??”
There was a Federal election in 2018?
In which parallel universe was that, Bobby?
Bobby,
The Liberal voting average Joe appears to far less common than in the past.
A week and half ago, the Victorian Liberals announced that they expected to finish no better than third place in many seats. Matthew Guy was still pushing that line in last night’s debate.
My guess is the Liberals internal polling has the combined Lib/Nat vote at around 30% statewide. The Nats usually receive 4-5%, so that gives the Libs around 25-26% statewide.
With one in four people voting Liberal, it shouldn’t be too hard to find Liberal voters, there just isn’t enough of them to win many seats.
Bobby, you don’t have a point, you have wishcasting.
On a psephology site.
Guys I got 10 grand on coalition to win this Saturday
I think they can do it
Prayers up
Good Luck Bobby.
Someone on this site said the latest poll was over represented with cookers because they’re the loudest Yada yada
However they didn’t look at the opposite side and say we’ll look so many people are angry with dangerous Dan that they’d rather not comment when asked.
Why was only one point of view taken into context and not the other hmmm?????
I call BS on that. The market odds would shift more than what they have if so.
Bobby I have a wonderful investment opportunity for you. Gold Coast property, huge investment windfall that only a limited number will have access to. Returns in the range of 150% to 200%.
nath is a straight shooter. seems legit.
I just smacked down another 5k to move the odds just because you said to
So now that we know the coalition will win, who wants to celebrate with me?
You know why cookers lie so much? Because they think everyone is lying to them.
I predict the next poll will show coalition dead even with labour
If I’m wrong I’ll bet some on labor but if I’m right I’m gonna drop 50k to seal the deal
God as my witness holy mother of god Jesus jeshua Christ jehovah
I think there will be some wild swings to the Liberals in certain areas. A protest vote essentially.
On the 2pp figure. Is it losing its value?
I say this because we could have potentially 6 Green seats whose electors, if polled, will return a 2pp vote for Labor, but who won’t actually add to the Labor vote or seat tally.
Bobby says:
Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 10:08 am
I just smacked down another 5k to move the odds just because you said to
=============++++++++==================
I’m prepared to bet Jeremy has snuck back in as Bobby.
Another Fine Cotton ring in? But no thoroughbreds involved.
“Bobby says:
Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 9:39 am
Alpo I’m not as naive as you
And I’m older than you
Probably because I’m older than you…”
Bobby, if you are older than me you must be senescent… and it shows, mate. Eat more fish, do more exercise, drink alcohol only in moderation… and vote ALP1, that will do… 🙂
You gotta take into the account the silent majority – Dan has upset a lot of people he’ll be punished for it
“Bobby says:
Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 9:45 am
I also don’t believe covid is real”…
Bobby, people who believe that crap don’t come here. What’s your “mission” Bobby?… and how “impossible” is it?
And of course the more Green seats there are, the less relevant the 2pp figure becomes, both in polling and at the election. The same goes for the Teals too.
“Bobby says:
Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 10:23 am
You gotta take into the account the silent majority”
Dead people don’t vote, Bobby!!
Put your money where yo mouth is
So if there are going to be 6 Green seats and 2 Teal seats, then it is not inconceivable that the rest of the electorate is actually polling closer to around 51-49, once those Green/Teal seats being polled are taken out of consideration.
Justin says:
Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 9:14 am
And yet this thing about majority or minority is completely irrelevant if a bunch of cookers get into the upper house and work with the Coalition to refuse to pass anything.
————
Agree Justin- or a less extreme scenario where the government can get basic things through Parliament but its agenda is pretty much put on ice and the government limps through the next 4 years without being able to do much. I’m not suggesting this is what will happen, but it’s within the range of plausible outcomes owing to GVTs. The only upside of that scenario is that it might finally convince the ALP that it needs to get rid of GVTs, but given an Upper House like that, it might be much easier said than done.
This is what you get when you ban people like Jeremy who at least possessed a little brain matter.
Guys let’s talk odds
1.08 for labor seems too short
Could it be a trap?
What I mean by trap is heaps of peeps gonna take that as free money, while no one will bet on coalition
“Oliver Sutton says:
Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 9:50 am
Definitely a downmarket trend here:
‘Jeremy’
|
‘Michael’
|
‘Bobby’”
Take a deep breath Oliver, I have just checked a random website with number of first names, and there are about 163,223 different ones in use in Australia. We have got 3 already, so it’s 163,220 to go…. Oh dear!
“Bobby says:
Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 10:31 am
Put your money where yo mouth is”
I don’t it banknotes, let alone coins… But if you want to do so, be my guest!
Bobby says:
Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 10:23 am
You gotta take into the account the silent majority – Dan has upset a lot of people he’ll be punished for it.
Bobby there is no doubt that the campaign has made people like you angrier, but I don’t think it has moved the needle much. I do worry that I might have to face a cooker on Saturday, that is something new.
We will find out in 3 days.
Rocket Rocket says:
Tuesday, November 22, 2022 at 2:32 pm
Mexicanbeemer
Rundle can be a bit over the top, but nevertheless there has been an amazing transformation in the last few decades. The Liberals’ ‘Jewel in the Crown’ Victoria went from 27 years of Liberal rule 1955-1982 to 29/40 years of Labor, including 19 out of the last 23.
Meanwhile Queensland has gone from 32 years of National Party 1957-1989 to now have had 28/33 years of Labor government with just two brief two and three year ‘interregnums’.
And of course another way to look at these two states is that it was the 1950s Labor Split that undid Labor and led to those long exiles.
ps – “interregna” (that is for Snappy Tom – 926am today)
____________
Sorry Rocket Rocket, I’ve been taking in the World Cup.
Google and I agree – “interregna” it is!
Thanks for your research, Alpo. 🙂
‘Jeremy’ struck me as.a rather poncy name: befitting a Young Liberal from Central Casting.
‘Michael’ is more mid-market, and ‘Bobby’ decidedly downmarket, fitting the assumed persona of a bloke with mates at the pub.
nath says:
Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 10:02 am
Bobby I have a wonderful investment opportunity for you. Gold Coast property, huge investment windfall that only a limited number will have access to. Returns in the range of 150% to 200%.
____________
nath, are you wearing your white shoes again?
“Bobby says:
Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 10:38 am
Guys let’s talk odds”
Shouldn’t you just try to be less odd instead?… What’s wrong with being a normal, but rational Liberal supporter? Why can’t you do it? There are plenty of rational and thoughtful Labor and Greens supporters here. Are they better than you guys?… Perhaps they are!
Bobby McGee (and has a Labor ad)
https://youtu.be/5Cg-j0X09Ag
Snappy Tom says:
Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 10:49 am
nath says:
Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 10:02 am
Bobby I have a wonderful investment opportunity for you. Gold Coast property, huge investment windfall that only a limited number will have access to. Returns in the range of 150% to 200%.
____________
nath, are you wearing your white shoes again?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
And nath probably has Chevron Island bridge for sale
@Bobby on “echo chambers”.
I have actually not met anybody who would be voting Liberal. Everybody I know and come across absolutely hates them and makes jokes about them. Similarly, not one person I know is angry at Dan either (except my wife’s right wing sister who doesn’t actually live in Victoria), and in fact everyone I know makes fun of the “anti-Dan” clowns as being gullible, uneducated twits who are unable to decipher fact from fiction.
Now, admittedly, I live in a suburb where the Liberals only got 13% in May, in a seat held by the Greens, my neighbours include nurses, artists, public servants and union members, and my circle of friends and family are all very progressive.
So you’d be right, my “bubble” is probably an echo chamber.
But my point is, did you consider that maybe your own circle of angry anti-Dan conservatives might be one too? People tend to associate with likeminded people.
In any case, in 2019 the polls were close to 50/50 (albeit leaning Labor) so a small error could change the outcome.
This 53-47 poll has been Labor’s weakest, and was conducted BEFORE all the Lib scandals a few days ago. The polling average has been closer to 55/56 for Labor.
I know you guys are all closet liberal supporters, on Saturday) yall can drop the act
Snappy Tom – 1045
Yes a much more urgent matter than some of this thread!
But what about ‘octopus’?
Octopi, Octopuses, Octopodes (or even Octopods)
The pedant in me says Octopodes but in conversation (when I am so often taking about groups of cephalopods!) I think I say Octopuses.
An argument going for 150 years it seems
But as the Octopus grew and multiplied, it became necessary to speak of him in the plural; and here a whole host of difficulties arose. Some daring spirits with little Latin and less Greek, rushed upon octopi; as for octopuses, a man would as soon think of swallowing one of the animals thus described as pronounce such a word at a respectable tea-table. In this condition of affairs, we are glad to know that a few resolute people have begun to talk about Octopods, which is, of course, the nearest English approach to the proper plural.
— The Bradford Observer (West Yorkshire, Eng.), 7 Nov. 1873
And I won’t toss ya for it.
Trends
Post covid
No incumbent had held onto power this is actually a statistic that’s occurred around the globe.
Stats don’t lie – people do
OK so if Guy becomes Premier, how long before he erects a statue of King Arthur?
Paging William to to the thread….
I love how people always mis-represent the betting odds as somehow being the bookies opinion on an event. I also love that people by the we just had a bet of $100k on x outcome. No bookie takes that bet if they are any good UNLESS they have the balancing amount already on the books… the idea is to take bets on all outcomes such that no matter what happens the bookie profits.
Look at a horse race, post race odds (fixed bet not tote) total up the % chance based on the odds, you will find most races have a 110% likelihood of a result. That extra 10% chance that something will occur (which is 100%) is their margin of error and profit.
No bookie takes bets that cause them to potentially lose money, not without losing their license/job anyway.
On the election, $1.08 is very short odds, I backed Winx and Black Cavier on numerous occasions at around $1.15 and $1.20 and 1 never lost and the other won all their races after there juvenile years of racing. Those odds were longer than ALP’s because the jockey could fall off or the horse could hurt themselves in the run, with 3-4 days left I would say Dan is highly unlikely to cark it OR to do something so bad as to lose a truckload of votes before Saturday.
Vote Liberal on Saturday!
Yes we can! – Obama
MVGA! – Trump