The Age brings a Resolve Strategic poll (not on the website at the time of posting but in today’s print edition) showing a substantial narrowing since the blowout Labor lead the pollster recorded at the start of the campaign four weeks ago, with Labor and the Coalition tied on 36% of the primary vote, having respectively dropped two and gained five. The Greens are down two to 10%, and where the previous poll had independents on 12% and others on 6%, this one has it the other way round – probably in part reflecting a change in response options following the closure of nominations. This translates to a two-party preferred of 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with 59-41 last time. Daniel Andrews’ lead as preferred premier has narrowed from 49-28 to 48-34. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1000.
Other news from the past three days:
• The election for the Gippsland seat of Narracan will not proceed on Saturday following the death of Nationals candidate Shaun Gilchrist. The death of a candidate between the closure of nominations and polling day results in the election for the seat being declared void and a supplementary election being held at a later time. This last happened in 1999 in the seat of Frankston East, when Liberal-turned-independent Peter McLellan died on the day of the election itself. When the election subsequently produced a hung parliament, great weight was placed on the result of the Frankston East supplementary election four weeks later, at which Labor’s win resolved any doubt that the three independents would use their numbers to depose Jeff Kennett’s government and put Labor in power under Steve Bracks. Narracan is unlikely to prove so decisive, which likely loomed as a contest between the Liberals and the Nationals following the retirement of Liberal incumbent Gary Blackwood.
• Matthew Guy said arch-conservative upper house candidate Renee Heath would not be allowed to join the Liberal party room after 60 Minutes and The Age reported on her involvement with religious conservative political organisations, notwithstanding that her links to the City Builders Church were a matter of considerable controversy when she was preselected for Eastern Victoria region in August. Tim Smith, outgoing Liberal member for Kew and estranged former ally of Guy, said on Twitter that Guy had no such power and described the decision as cultural Marxism. Coming well after the close of nominations, the episode does not affect Heath’s place at the top of the party ticket, from which she is seemingly sure to win election. The Age reported yesterday that Heath had engaged lawyers and was considering a religious discrimination complaint against the party in the Australian Human Rights Commission.
• The Age published a recording on Sunday of a freewheeling political exchange involving Timothy Dragan, Liberal candidate for Narre Warren North, at pre-poll booth last week. The recording finds Dragan describing Liberal front-bencher Brad Battin a “prick”, declaring himself “100 per cent” opposed to an Indigenous treaty on the grounds that “we won this land fair and square”, and saying that if elected he will vote against his own party’s emissions targets.
• Police are investigating Catherine Cumming, independent MLC and candidate for the Angry Victorians party, after she told an anti-lockdown rally outside Flinders Street Station of her ambition “to make Daniel Andrews turn into red mist”. For the benefit of those not sharing her army reserve background, Cumming clarified that this involved, in its milder pink form, blowing the subject up. Cumming now argues that she was in fact referring to the red shirts affair. Noting the positions of Angry Victorians and other micro-party parties of the right on their group voting tickets, Deputy Premier Jacinta Allan accused the Liberals of preferencing “Nazis”, prompting a rebuke from Anti-Defamation Commission chairman Dvir Abramovich.
• The impact of the Liberal Party’s change of preference strategy, in which it will place the Greens ahead of Labor as part of a “put Labor last strategy”, is analysed by Antony Green and Kevin Bonham, the latter focusing specifically on the seat of Pascoe Vale, which Bonham argues is a stronger possibility for the Greens than betting markets suggest.
Bobby @ #356 Wednesday, November 23rd, 2022 – 11:27 am
Bejezus It’s the 2nd coming of Jeremy.
They must be doing FIFO at Lib HO.
Bruh doubledummy you sound like you have a lot of knowledge in area
“ you sound like you have a lot of knowledge in area”
… says the Einstein who cited a hitherto-unknown 2018 federal election.
Not sure why you’d bring world war 2 imperial Japanese into this, you a fan of hirihito?
Here’s what Guy told reporters during today’s press conference:
I think what we saw last night was an arrogant, out-of-touch premier who is out of ideas and out of time. You know, for him, it’s all about fighting and dividing and attacking. It’s all about smear … and going into gutter politics, as we’ve seen in the last few days. And I expect more of that from the Labor Party and their associates. That’s how they conduct themselves.
I’m out here again announcing a positive policy. Positive policy to help hardworking Victorian families. Tomorrow, we’ll be doing the same in regional Victoria.
Bobby says:
Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 9:45 am
I also don’t believe covid is real
—
Lulz. On your way Bobby. Of course you and your deadshit mates are all voting Liberal.
Here’s a prediction: Bobby disappears like shitstains in a hot wash when the LNP gets thumped this weekend. If he lasts that long before getting the heave-ho.
Didn’t know that it touched a nerve did you have a love one pass from Covid? If this is the case I’m genuinely sorry for your loss
Anyone over the age of let’s say 22 knows covid is co co coo coo.
Bobby says:
Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 11:47 am
Didn’t know that it touched a nerve did you have a love one pass from Covid? If this is the case I’m genuinely sorry for your loss
—
How can someone die from covid if it isn’t real?
Solid cooker logic.
Stick with schooling bubby. One day you might guess enough multiple choice questions to get a result.
somethinglikethat: “Solid cooker logic.”
Make no mistake; This is their base.
The (somewhat blackened) pot calling the kettle black:
And The Age headlines that Guy calls Andrews rude and arrogant
The old saying is that it takes one to know one
Perhaps Andrews should call Guy deceitful and crooked (and I could recount proof but that would compromise me and those I associate with in the world of commerce and industry because the information is specific as to people and projects)
But Andrews will not stoop to juvenile name calling
Is Bobby really Jeremy, the dude who got banned by William on the weekend? This thread has brought out the crazy Dan Andrews haters, all 2 of them.
I personally hope Andrews wins, if only as an “up yours” to a very pro Matthew Guy media pack.
I don’t hate Dan andrews, I couldn’t care who wins.
I got money on Guy
Evan, between Jeremy and Bobby we had Michael.
The ingredients for a 1960s folk trio.
I think Bobby just got lost and took a wrong turn while looking for the comments section on Sky News’ YouTube channel.
Bobby says:
Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 12:04 pm
I couldn’t care who wins.
I got money on Guy
—
Those two things are mutually exclusive.
Example 2 from Bobby: solid cooker logic.
Michael is not Bobby or Jeremy. Can the quality of this thread be improved please.
Post Covid voting?
West Australia
Churchill lost because of his austerity ideology – so Right Wing ideology
Rocket Rocket says:
Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 11:14 am
Snappy Tom – 1045
Yes a much more urgent matter than some of this thread!
But what about ‘octopus’?
Octopi, Octopuses, Octopodes (or even Octopods)
The pedant in me says Octopodes but in conversation (when I am so often taking about groups of cephalopods!) I think I say Octopuses.
____________
I’ve always used octopi. The assertion (in a later post) that such a plural betrays little knowledge of Latin is unsupported by evidence.
I would be happy with a more Greek flavouring…octopae…but octopi it is (or, should I say, they are)!
(The problem with options like octopodes is their consonantal endings – sorry, endae – or did I mean endi?)
Here we go again says:
Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 11:54 am
And The Age headlines that Guy calls Andrews rude and arrogant
_____________
I found it amusing that Guy called Andrews ‘ungracious’ and rude during his concession phone call after the 2018 election. That may be so, but for a ‘Guy’ who was running an African crime beat up calling someone else ungracious is a bit absurd.
One thing I found a bit funny in last night’s debate, was that Guy answered Dan’s question (the premise of which was basically asking why Guy politicised the pandemic) by shouting “YOU broke our health system”… And then 5 seconds later when it’s time to ask his question, asks Dan why he’s so divisive and won’t unite the state…
Guys, the -pus in Octopus isn’t Latin, it’s Greek.
So theoretically, the correct version is Octopodes.
But I’d file that under trivia rather than anything that really matters too much.
Shooting the breeze:
Plural of octopus:
Look an octopus. And another one. Lots of them. (Octopi gets my vote.)
(Plural of cooker: Bobby, Jeremy and Michael. – Sorry, Mr Bowe.)
Actual post:
I’m sure someone else has noted this; the reported Sky news 38/34/28 result is almost exactly what the recent pools have been saying. Maybe Sky, perish the thought, actually did manage to find 100 undecided voters!
Breaking that down – to 38 ALP, 34 Libs (how? really?) and 12 Green, 16 ‘rest and applying my personal (C) formula – ALP + 80% Green plus half the rest Sky has predicted: 56:44 -2 party preferred.
This is the average of all the published polls. Sky has called it. I suspect correctly.
Ok, finishing the paper work and its back to the booth for me.
Have a great day all, and may the best person/green/non-lib aligned Indi win!
Alas, William, I think this is the future: media outlets have, out of a combination of cynicism and parsimony, evidently decided that it suits them not to commission as many polls of state elections as they used to. In the absence of data, feelpinion — and trolling — takes over.
@Toby, 12.42pm.
I think it is far more cynical than that.
As in the US our polling companies have become players. They are no longer taking snapshots, they are trying to influence the result.
The absence of the Newspolls, I suspect, is that they don’t want to reinforce the feeling that the Libs have utterly self destructed. (You know, preferencing Nazis ahead of Labor, pre-selecting RWNJs, racists and Arch-Colonialists, alleged criminals, assassination advocates, Climate change deniers, cookers….)
In my heart of hearts I’d love a Labor / Green / Porgressive Indi grand coalition.
In reality I foresee anything from a solid ALP return to a complete Kirkup, with the Greens, Nats and Libs grudging it out for biggest non-government party in the Victorian Parliament (lower house) at about 6 each! The Indis will pick up a few too.
The ALP is bleeding primary votes, but they won’t be going to the RWNJ libs. They will be spraying everywhere.
As my old friend, Jezza like to say: Fascinating election.
I think election night on Saturday will be rather fascinating – do the pre polls and postals get counted on the night, along with the votes cast on November 26?
I had a look at Sportsbet and the favourites to win a few Liberal seats in Melbourne, especially Kew and Sandringham, are independents/Teals in other words. So I hardly see Matthew Guy being able to form any sort of government if he’s losing seats to Teals.
Undoubtably Labor will lose some skin, no doubt seats like Hawthorn, Bayswater, Burwood etc.
There will be counting of pre-polls and postals on the night.
@Evan, I find it interesting that Sportsbet have the IND favoured in Sandringham because he’s probably the least likely out of all of them:
– 0.4% ALP v LIB margin
– He doesn’t fit the “teal” profile (he’s a middle aged man)
– More of a local/council focus than a teal/environment one
– He actually already ran in the previous 2 state elections too
Sure his vote will increase a bit this time because of all the independent “hype” but not to the point of surpassing Labor. Additionally, unlike in Kew, Hawthorn & Caulfield, the Greens have preferenced Labor above him which will make that all the more difficult.
An another note, I don’t think Ashwood (formerly Burwood) is the sort of seat Labor are too at risk in, despite the slim margin. It’s part of a region swinging towards Labor, it’s right on the SRL corridor and actually getting a new station that doesn’t currently exist, and the Liberal candidate is a complete & utter dud, one of their worst.
He’s parachuted in, ran in Bentleigh last time and lives in the Sandringham electorate, and each election seems to attach himself to one issue solely, but resort to dodgy tactics which backfire.
In 2018 it was a brutal anti-crime campaign, including huge billboards of old men with black eyes, in one of Melbourne’s safest suburbs, while claiming that Labor had made people “felt unsafe”. The good people of Bentleigh emphatically rejected him with a 12% swing.
This year, he’s attached himself to an anti-development group despite him being from the Property Council of Australia, and has set up a fake “independent” local NIMBY group is handing out HTV cards for a local independent (with him at #2 of course), but that group has already been outed in the media as being set up by his own campaign!
I think Ashwood will probably get a pro-Labor swing to be honest, or at the very least the 2% margin will hold up.
Evan @ #380 Wednesday, November 23rd, 2022 – 1:29 pm
I have read that in Bass the pre-polls start counting from 0800 Saturday.
The Age now trying to promote a lily white image of itself. “All the mud is thrown by others, especially Labor”.
Why has the Victoria state election campaign turned so ugly?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/nov/23/victoria-state-election-2022-why-has-the-campaign-turned-so-ugly
The Liberals have so few female candidates running, and a large chunk of them are on the religious right: Renee Heath (#1 Eastern Victoria), Ann-Marie Hermans (#1 SE Metro), Moira Deeming (#1 Western Metro), Briony Hutton (Hastings), Nicole Ta-Ei Werner (Box Hill), Cynthia Watson (Ringwood). Also in the field is anti-Safe Schools campaigner Paige Yap (Mill Park). The three upper house seats are safe and the three lower seats outside of Mill Park are marginals.
I was reflecting on the ‘churn’ of Coalition PM’s, Premiers, and Chief Ministers in recent years. And here is a list of the last ones to have served at least five years in the top job, and the year they finished.
Federal – John Howard – 2007
NSW – Robert Askin – 1975
Victoria – Jeff Kennett – 1999
Queensland – Joh Bjelke-Petersen – 1987
SA – Thomas Playford IV – 1965
WA – Colin Barnett – 2017
Tasmania – Will Hodgman – 2020
NT – Marshall Perron – 1995
ACT – Kate Carnell – 2000
The closest any have got since these are Berejiklian (4 years 255 days), Marshall ( 4 years 2 days)
Says something about factions and ‘brand’ I think.
Ripon Report, Day, eeer whatever, 3 to go.
Early voted, as I was in town and the booth was convenient, full stock of HTV handers outerers so Green, AJP, ALP, LNP, cooker. All well behaved apart from the pushy/angry/old liberal. So I took the HTVs and had a quick chat with the ALP candidate.
Took about 15mins to actually vote as the LC ballot paper is so awfully confusing going below the line
Junk mail count 1 ALP, rather decent B&W effort linking Staley with Guy and Kennet
1 LNP, the big red Dan picture with dont wake up to a labor win.
Strange thing with these handouts, I had to read them properly to figure out which was which, afterall a big red one with Dan on the front? If you were a not so engaged voter it would be easy to just toss it, of look and see vote Liberal – get Dan. The ALP effort is much better being nice and local but far more old-school LNP attack style. Obviously there is some money in the campaign up here to produce those tailored handouts for Ripon.
Bobby
I know someone who doesn’t believe COVID is real either. This is despite being in intensive care almost dying from it.
The medicos saved his life. He was in rehab for 3. Months, and is barely able to walk without running out of breath.
When one is cooked, they are cooked. Whatayoudo.
Question for William, because I know you put together a booth by booth ‘live results’ page.
Is there anywhere that the names of the new polling places – those that didn’t exist in 2018 – are accessible online?
As one example: From what I can tell, “Hawksburn Central” booth at South Yarra Baptist Church from the previous election is no longer a polling place this year. However, there is a new polling place at Renown Kindergarten in South Yarra.
I checked the VEC site, but it only has the name of the premises rather than the name of the polling place. (To use the discontinued booth as an example, it would have ‘South Yarra Baptist Church’ but not ‘Hawksburn Central’)
In addition to the question about whether the polling place names are listed anywhere, how do you calculate swings in this case? If the new & discontinued polling places are close to each other would you compare them for the swing, or if – like in this case – they may be in areas with significant demographic differences*, would the new place just have no ‘swing’ data?
* In the case of these two South Yarra polling places, South Yarra Baptist Church is on Surrey Road which is right in the middle of the large public housing estate, whereas Renown Kindergarten is in a street full of terrace homes west of Chapel St.
“Expat says:
Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 12:30 pm
Guys, the -pus in Octopus isn’t Latin, it’s Greek.
So theoretically, the correct version is Octopodes.
But I’d file that under trivia rather than anything that really matters too much.”
Thanks Expat, I never get a good trivia question slip away…
The word “octopus” is actually a Latinised form of the original Greek oktōpous.
@Rocket Rocket
Interesting list, I the Victoria has the best record for recent LNP dysfunction, one term Govt 2010-2014 with 2 leaders and paralysed by their own MP Geoff Shaw turning them into minority Govt.
Here we go againsays:
Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 11:54 am
But Andrews will not stoop to juvenile name calling.
_____________________
You sure about that ?????
The Age
“Premier Daniel Andrews has apologised for making disparaging remarks in parliament about a Liberal MP’s weight.
The opposition accused Mr Andrews of bullying behaviour after he appeared to joke about South Barwon MP Andrew Katos’ appearance”
We should all probably consider eating more salads.
I know quite a few older voters who usually vote lib, who really like Dan’s leadership on covid pre-vaccines when they ran a 2-3% or more chance of dying if they got covid. I wonder if the lib’s grey vote will be down as a result of this? Teal type indies might get their votes.
Question for everyone. Can the Liberals form government within the next 2 terms (26/30)?
I genuinely don’t see how it’s possible.
– Every 4 years equates to more eligible young people and less older people. The progressive vote grows whilst the conservative diminishes.
Of course a hung parliament becomes increasingly more likely with the aging of the Labor government. But which third political force is going to side with the liberals? Certainly not the greens.
The way I see it, nothing short of a complete purge of the RWNJs in the Vic Libs will be enough to give them a shot at 2030.
Donkey Voter says:
Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 3:45 pm
Question for everyone. Can the Liberals form government within the next 2 terms (26/30)?
————————
If the ALP falls to 48 to 46 seats then the Liberals would be a strong chance to win in 2026. There’s a lot of water to go under the bridge between now and then but by 2026 this government will be 12 years old and starting to become stale and the next term will probably be more difficult than the last term.
When you have to go back to 2016 for your complaint about Daniel Andrews being uncivil, I think you’ve unwittingly made the other person’s point for them.
Donkey Voter @ #395 Wednesday, November 23rd, 2022 – 3:45 pm
Yes but every year the older youngers turn into older conservatives who then go on to eventually cark it. So remember to have one for Mum and one for the country.
Rocket x 2: Peter Beattie served 9 years as Premier of Queensland, up to 2007.
Oliver – I just looked at the Coalition ones as they all seem to have been shorter while Labor has had Beattie, Goss, Bracks, Bannon etc