The Age brings a Resolve Strategic poll (not on the website at the time of posting but in today’s print edition) showing a substantial narrowing since the blowout Labor lead the pollster recorded at the start of the campaign four weeks ago, with Labor and the Coalition tied on 36% of the primary vote, having respectively dropped two and gained five. The Greens are down two to 10%, and where the previous poll had independents on 12% and others on 6%, this one has it the other way round – probably in part reflecting a change in response options following the closure of nominations. This translates to a two-party preferred of 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with 59-41 last time. Daniel Andrews’ lead as preferred premier has narrowed from 49-28 to 48-34. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1000.
Other news from the past three days:
• The election for the Gippsland seat of Narracan will not proceed on Saturday following the death of Nationals candidate Shaun Gilchrist. The death of a candidate between the closure of nominations and polling day results in the election for the seat being declared void and a supplementary election being held at a later time. This last happened in 1999 in the seat of Frankston East, when Liberal-turned-independent Peter McLellan died on the day of the election itself. When the election subsequently produced a hung parliament, great weight was placed on the result of the Frankston East supplementary election four weeks later, at which Labor’s win resolved any doubt that the three independents would use their numbers to depose Jeff Kennett’s government and put Labor in power under Steve Bracks. Narracan is unlikely to prove so decisive, which likely loomed as a contest between the Liberals and the Nationals following the retirement of Liberal incumbent Gary Blackwood.
• Matthew Guy said arch-conservative upper house candidate Renee Heath would not be allowed to join the Liberal party room after 60 Minutes and The Age reported on her involvement with religious conservative political organisations, notwithstanding that her links to the City Builders Church were a matter of considerable controversy when she was preselected for Eastern Victoria region in August. Tim Smith, outgoing Liberal member for Kew and estranged former ally of Guy, said on Twitter that Guy had no such power and described the decision as cultural Marxism. Coming well after the close of nominations, the episode does not affect Heath’s place at the top of the party ticket, from which she is seemingly sure to win election. The Age reported yesterday that Heath had engaged lawyers and was considering a religious discrimination complaint against the party in the Australian Human Rights Commission.
• The Age published a recording on Sunday of a freewheeling political exchange involving Timothy Dragan, Liberal candidate for Narre Warren North, at pre-poll booth last week. The recording finds Dragan describing Liberal front-bencher Brad Battin a “prick”, declaring himself “100 per cent” opposed to an Indigenous treaty on the grounds that “we won this land fair and square”, and saying that if elected he will vote against his own party’s emissions targets.
• Police are investigating Catherine Cumming, independent MLC and candidate for the Angry Victorians party, after she told an anti-lockdown rally outside Flinders Street Station of her ambition “to make Daniel Andrews turn into red mist”. For the benefit of those not sharing her army reserve background, Cumming clarified that this involved, in its milder pink form, blowing the subject up. Cumming now argues that she was in fact referring to the red shirts affair. Noting the positions of Angry Victorians and other micro-party parties of the right on their group voting tickets, Deputy Premier Jacinta Allan accused the Liberals of preferencing “Nazis”, prompting a rebuke from Anti-Defamation Commission chairman Dvir Abramovich.
• The impact of the Liberal Party’s change of preference strategy, in which it will place the Greens ahead of Labor as part of a “put Labor last strategy”, is analysed by Antony Green and Kevin Bonham, the latter focusing specifically on the seat of Pascoe Vale, which Bonham argues is a stronger possibility for the Greens than betting markets suggest.
The thing about polls and elections is that while psephology is a social science, and politics is too, politicians, and therefore much of actual ‘politics’ fall into the realm of performing arts, and therefore of the humanities.
Just a random thought.
Oops, missed that: ta!
“@Donkey Voter:
Question for everyone. Can the Liberals form government within the next 2 terms (26/30)?
I genuinely don’t see how it’s possible.
– Every 4 years equates to more eligible young people and less older people. The progressive vote grows whilst the conservative diminishes.”
First – thanks to the low birth rate we have an aging population, and people get more conservative as they get older, so it’s not as simple as the majority left wing under 50s aging up while the majority conservative over 50s die off. We can hope that the current younger generation is immune to the disease of going all selfish and NIMBY as they get older but I wouldn’t hold my breath. If your thesis was true we wouldn’t have gone from Rudd/Gillard into 3 terms of Federal coalition.
Second -even at this election we could easily see the high water mark of 2018 come back to a more reasonable 53-47 kind of mark and from there you can lose, especially as a by then 12 year government which has had more chance than most to build up grievances in the community, with Andrews almost definitely gone and replaced by presumably Jacinta Allan. That’s how long the Bracks-Brumby government lasted, and the major grievances with that government were things like “wasted a lot of money on Myki” not COVID lockdowns. It’s frankly amazing, and speaks to how bad the Libs were in 2018 and still are, that the Andrews government is in pole position for 3rd term at all.
nath @ #408 Wednesday, November 23rd, 2022 – 4:08 pm
I find the human behavioural aspects of voters utterly fascinating.
No, but there are 75 booths I’m treating as “unmatched”, though in some cases that’s because they’re serving electorates they weren’t serving last time. Hawksburn Central is one of them — there’s a booth the VEC are giving that name at Renown Kindergarten (20 Cliff Street, South Yarra VIC 3141), but it’s far enough away that I’m treating it as not the same booth. To cut a very long story short, new booths are allocated historic data from other nearby booths.
https://twitter.com/FionaPattenMLC/status/1595280037166854145
Patten and Andrews are the outstanding star performers of Vic Parliament by the length of Flemington straight.
I expect Andrews to retire from Vic politics at the end of the next term. That’s something that ALP governments do all of the time. Conservative governments generally leave the place on fire, and the only way they get back in at all, is because of the relentless toxicity of conservative media dialled up to 11 whenever the conservatives aren’t in power.
Mexicanbeemersays:
Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 3:57 pm
If the ALP falls to 48 to 46 seats then the Liberals would be a strong chance to win in 2026. There’s a lot of water to go under the bridge between now and then but by 2026 this government will be 12 years old and starting to become stale and the next term will probably be more difficult than the last term.
—————————————————————
I hear what you’re saying, but the infiltration of the RWNJs is an existential threat to the Vic Libs. Social issues like gay conversion therapy, abortion, etc will force small l liberals away from the party into the arms of more moderate independents. Plus the Vic electorate is very progressive. I definitely see Labor losing some skin to the Greens, but less so to the Libs unless they can get their house in order.
Will be interesting to reassess once the results come through on sat.
Donkey Voter says:
Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 3:45 pm
Question for everyone. Can the Liberals form government within the next 2 terms (26/30)?
————————
I’ve been thinking about this too, and think there’s every possibility of a pro-Labor swing in 2026.
I’ll acknowledge straight up that there will be two major factors working against that, which would contribute to a swing against:
1. Age – 12 year old governments generally don’t improve
2. Federal Drag – They have avoided it this year because federal Labor are brand new, still in a honeymoon period, the old Liberal government is still fresh enough to be a drag on the Liberal brand, and Dutton is more of a drag than Albanese; but in 2026 federal drag will most likely be more of a factor (unless Labor lose in 2025 but that’s unlikely)
However, there are a lot of other factors that would be more positive for Labor in 2026 than this year:
* New leader. I love Andrews but he will cause a swing against in *some* regions
* Fresh face will also distance the party from the ‘pandemic era’
* Major projects like Metro Tunnel & Westgate Tunnel complete, benefits being realised
* Labor had a much rougher 2020-21 than I expect any years in their next term to be
* Pandemic anger will be a thing of the past
* Corruption allegations will most likely all be done & dusted, less focus on that
* Covid impacts on health system won’t be blunting Labor’s usual advantage on health
In short, I think Covid is really what derailed Labor’s second term and made has made this election quite unique and different to any “normal” one.
If Covid hadn’t occurred, I think Labor could have been headed to a larger landslide than 2018 due to the collapse in the Liberal brand.
So it’s very possible that a 2026 result would be a swing against what 2022 could have been, in otherwise normal times, but factoring in what I’d probably consider to be a deviation from the norm this year, the return to “normal” could actually be a swing towards.
If I’m to explain that numerically, in a hypothetical non-Covid world, we could have seen something like this:
2018 – 55 seats (57%); 2022 – 60 seats (59%); 2026 – 52 seats (54%).
The unique nature of this 2022 election though could make it more like:
2018 – 55 seats (57%), 2022 – 49 seats (53%); 2026 – 52 seats (54%).
There’s a lot going against the Liberals in the long term. Their brand is trashed. The party is divided. They’ve lost their heartland, but I think their increased support in the outer areas they’re targeting is inflated by a temporary pandemic backlash. They will swing back to Labor, while the inner areas continue swinging away from the Liberals too.
Whereas I can only see the next 4 year term, not being defined by a pandemic, restoring some of Labor’s support.
That’s an optimistic reading obviously. Like I said – 12 year old governments usually don’t improve, and federal drag will likely impact them more than this year – and who knows what the next 4 years has in store! Things could completely change.
But I don’t particularly see many scenarios in which Victoria swings towards the Liberal Party, when the focus on government moves away from the pandemic, and back to the traditional realm of education, health, infrastructure and social reform.
@William: “No, but there are 75 booths I’m treating as “unmatched”, though in some cases that’s because they’re serving electorates they weren’t serving last time. Hawksburn Central is one of them — there’s a booth the VEC are giving that name at Renown Kindergarten (20 Cliff Street, South Yarra VIC 3141), but it’s far enough away that I’m treating it as not the same booth. To cut a very long story short, new booths are allocated historic data from other nearby booths.”
—
Thanks for the info!
So the VEC have actually named the new Renown Kindergarten booth as “Hawksburn Central”? I agree with you that it’s too far from the old one to match, but what’s also interesting is carrying over the name “Hawksburn” to a booth west of Chapel St because Hawksburn refers to the neighbourhood at the very southeastern edge of South Yarra around Malvern & Williams Roads, at the boundary of where South Yarra, Toorak & Prahran all meet. The new booth, being between Chapel & Punt, is in western South Yarra nowhere near the Hawksburn area.
Always hard to win a fourth term , though talking about this reminds me of many Collingwood supporters in the 2011 finals debating whether they could win three in a row 2010-2011-2012, just before they lost the 2011 Grand Final!
I think one issue is if ‘normal’ entropy and decay claim Labor in 2026 what state would the Coalition be in? Their current internal problems don’t seem like they are going away soon – it would not surprise me that even if they did win they may implode again like that short-lived 2010-2014 term under Baillieu then Napthine.
It seems to me that this also applies to the federal coalition – do they stay on the same doomed policy paths or change with a changing Australia?
I’m liking Trent’s commentary. 🙂
Donkey Voter
I hear what you’re saying, but the infiltration of the RWNJs is an existential threat to the Vic Libs. Social issues like gay conversion therapy, abortion, etc will force small l liberals away from the party into the arms of more moderate independents. Plus the Vic electorate is very progressive. I definitely see Labor losing some skin to the Greens, but less so to the Libs unless they can get their house in order.
—————————–
That’s something the Liberals have to address and there’s no sign of them doing that because going down the reactionary path is unelectable and when it does win its unsustainable.
Arkysays:
Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 4:10 pm
First – thanks to the low birth rate we have an aging population, and people get more conservative as they get older, so it’s not as simple as the majority left wing under 50s aging up while the majority conservative over 50s die off. We can hope that the current younger generation is immune to the disease of going all selfish and NIMBY as they get older but I wouldn’t hold my breath. If your thesis was true we wouldn’t have gone from Rudd/Gillard into 3 terms of Federal coalition.
Second -even at this election we could easily see the high water mark of 2018 come back to a more reasonable 53-47 kind of mark and from there you can lose, especially as a by then 12 year government which has had more chance than most to build up grievances in the community, with Andrews almost definitely gone and replaced by presumably Jacinta Allan. That’s how long the Bracks-Brumby government lasted, and the major grievances with that government were things like “wasted a lot of money on Myki” not COVID lockdowns. It’s frankly amazing, and speaks to how bad the Libs were in 2018 and still are, that the Andrews government is in pole position for 3rd term at all.
——————————————————————-
1) Gen Z and Millenials will soon become the largest voting block in Victoria (currently 36% vs boomer at 38% and Gen X at 26%), they’re also the most progressive. We would have only had 3 years of federal coalition if it weren’t for QLD. Which, lets be honest, QLD is a mystery to anyone not from QLD.
2) Yeah, absolutely agree that the incumbent vote usually declines with age. However my point is more concerned with the fact that a slide in Labors vote isn’t an automatic swing to the Libs. Victoria is a progressive state, 19/23 years of Labor proves that. A decline in Labor vote is just going to result in more 3 way contests**.
** unless the Vic Libs get their shit together
Big point which is missing
In the federal election , the lib/nats and their corrupt media got victoria wrong
They were expecting state issues in Victoria , to help the lib/nats in the federal election but it was the other way around it was the Federal Lib/nats particular those Victorian Lib/nats which coped a voters backlash.
Guy and his cronies linked themselves to the Federal and NSW Lib/nats governments which punish the people of Victoria
Thanks C@tmomma!
Thanks, Trent, for your comprehensive prognosis of the ALP future.
Personally, I believe that with a re-elected and competent Federal Government the Victorian Government, without the distraction of the COVID Pandemic and continuing its progressive social agenda will be re-elected in 2026 with an increased majority.
The shrill voices of the Dictator Dan crew will be gone and possibly a new Labor Premier will lead the ALP to another term in Government.
Gen X and Millenials share a lot in common and were the two generations that turned on the Liberals in the Teal seats. Gen Z is still finding its feet and are leaning to the Green just as the Millenials once did but that has been changing.
MABWM says:
Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 1:12 pm
@Toby, 12.42pm.
I think it is far more cynical than that.
As in the US our polling companies have become players. They are no longer taking snapshots, they are trying to influence the result.
The absence of the Newspolls, I suspect, is that they don’t want to reinforce the feeling that the Libs have utterly self destructed. (You know, preferencing Nazis ahead of Labor, pre-selecting RWNJs, racists and Arch-Colonialists, alleged criminals, assassination advocates, Climate change deniers, cookers….)
In my heart of hearts I’d love a Labor / Green / Porgressive Indi grand coalition.
In reality I foresee anything from a solid ALP return to a complete Kirkup, with the Greens, Nats and Libs grudging it out for biggest non-government party in the Victorian Parliament (lower house) at about 6 each! The Indis will pick up a few too.
The ALP is bleeding primary votes, but they won’t be going to the RWNJ libs. They will be spraying everywhere.
As my old friend, Jezza like to say: Fascinating election.
____________
“Kirkup” is the best new term of abuse/denigration since “Jeff-up”! Well done.
In my view, the Vic Libs are pretty much Kirked – and the NSW Libs are likely to be similar. They took several steps towards a right Kirking federally – and would have been if the nation had replicated the (federal) results that occurred in WA.
That leaves the Tas Libs…
Rocket Rocket,
In your list of 5-year+ state premiers I think you had Playford as the most recent one in SA. According to Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premier_of_South_Australia), it was Weatherill. If I didn’t read your list incorrectly. (And, surely, Dunstan and Bannon and…)
Macca RB says:
Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 5:01 pm
Thanks, Trent, for your comprehensive prognosis of the ALP future.
Personally, I believe that with a re-elected and competent Federal Government the Victorian Government, without the distraction of the COVID Pandemic and continuing its progressive social agenda will be re-elected in 2026 with an increased majority.
The shrill voices of the Dictator Dan crew will be gone and possibly a new Labor Premier will lead the ALP to another term in Government.
——————————–
That could happen but a lot would have to go right for the government because they face many challenges from the health system to the budget.
A thread on the Vic Lib association with the cooker cult
https://twitter.com/matttburke/status/1595232055905976321
Donkey Voter says:
Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 4:52 pm
Arkysays:
Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 4:10 pm
First – thanks to the low birth rate we have an aging population, and people get more conservative as they get older, so it’s not as simple as the majority left wing under 50s aging up while the majority conservative over 50s die off. We can hope that the current younger generation is immune to the disease of going all selfish and NIMBY as they get older but I wouldn’t hold my breath. If your thesis was true we wouldn’t have gone from Rudd/Gillard into 3 terms of Federal coalition.
Second -even at this election we could easily see the high water mark of 2018 come back to a more reasonable 53-47 kind of mark and from there you can lose, especially as a by then 12 year government which has had more chance than most to build up grievances in the community, with Andrews almost definitely gone and replaced by presumably Jacinta Allan. That’s how long the Bracks-Brumby government lasted, and the major grievances with that government were things like “wasted a lot of money on Myki” not COVID lockdowns. It’s frankly amazing, and speaks to how bad the Libs were in 2018 and still are, that the Andrews government is in pole position for 3rd term at all.
——————————————————————-
1) Gen Z and Millenials will soon become the largest voting block in Victoria (currently 36% vs boomer at 38% and Gen X at 26%), they’re also the most progressive. We would have only had 3 years of federal coalition if it weren’t for QLD. Which, lets be honest, QLD is a mystery to anyone not from QLD.
2) Yeah, absolutely agree that the incumbent vote usually declines with age. However my point is more concerned with the fact that a slide in Labors vote isn’t an automatic swing to the Libs. Victoria is a progressive state, 19/23 years of Labor proves that. A decline in Labor vote is just going to result in more 3 way contests**.
** unless the Vic Libs get their shit together
____________
A lot of QLDers (including the one to whom I’m married) are mystified by QLD voting: loads of Labor state govts since the end of the Joh gerrymander/corruption, but a reliable federal stronghold for the Coalition.
And you’re right about QLD gifting govt to the Coalition from 2016-22: in 2016 Labor won 61 of 120 non-QLD Reps seats, Coalition 55, cross bench 4; in 2019 Labor won 62 of 121 (Reps expanded by 1), Coalition 54, cross bench 5.
Sammy J was right about breaking up with QLD.
BTW, in 2022, Labor won 71 of 121 non-Qld seats, Coalition 37, cross bench 13.
Only QLD prevent a national Kirking of the Coalition.
Grime 401
Yes, in the past there has been the ritual “conservatization “of older people.
But what has happened in an aging population in the past doesn’t mean it’s going to continue happening and therefore make up for the loss of older,conservative voters through to the 2026 or 2030 elections.
Being a baby-boomer myself, in my circle of similar age people, I know of only one couple who are strong Conservative voters. All the rest are progressive voters. Sure, all of us are pretty conservative -economically speaking, but we are very concerned not about ourselves (health excepting) but our families and their children. We have seen the changes in the environment over our lifetime. We have seen the changes in occupation and job security, the absolute fragmentation of strict social boundaries, societal changes, division and polarisation in politics , the loss of support for religion,in particular Christianity-its failure to accept the societal changes happening across the globe, wasteful loss of young lives in wars,the list goes on
And it is all very concerning. I couldn’t imagine my fellow progressives changing their votes in their “declining” years. They have seen what reactionary politics has done in our society.
As a teacher of 42 years experience, I believe the education recieved by young people over the last 30 or so years has created generations of much more informed, open- minded and socially- aware adults than my generation were.
I know that inspite of the best all-round education one could get, more than a few will follow their parents’ ways- but that of course can go both ways, My parents were strong Liberal Party supporters but all their 5 children are progressive voters.
So yes, conservatism is a growth factor associated with age, but to say that inevitably, older people become more conservative and probably more likely to vote for conservative politics may well not hold up with the technological, societal and lifestyle change that is happening.
Finally, with respect to the direction that Conservative politics is heading, particularly with the Liberals- reactionary, divisive, fundamentalist religious politics, blatant economically sectional favouritism and contempt for the environment that are completely out-of-touch with a rapidly changing society and economy- I can’t see masses of our aging population going over to such hard-right forces.
Time will tell, but times are a’ changin’. We will see.
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 4:47 pm
I’m liking Trent’s commentary.
_____________________
No mention of the all the corruption though.
Just like what happened to your precious NSW ALP. It’s the corruption that will get them in the end
Snappy Tom @ #423 Wednesday, November 23rd, 2022 – 5:26 pm
Only QLD prevent a national Kirking of the Coalition.
I think Queenslanders took KRudd’s boning pretty hard as did many of the true believers.
Pretty sure Sir Captain Abbott would never have fluked the job.
I reckon keep an eye out for Jim Chalmers down the track,he’s shaping up well.
Gettysburg1863 @ #424 Wednesday, November 23rd, 2022 – 5:34 pm
Oh yes ,I certainly concur.I too and my surviving lifelong mates,all of us then aged 16/17 were sitting around drinking VB celebrating as Gough told us It’s Time back fifty years ago.We and our older brothers owed Gough and the ALP a debt of gratitude,my brother was in the last draft due to go off to Pukka but it was cancelled .
Pretty safe to say none of us have strayed further than Don Chipp and or the Greens but always come back to the ALP.
“Taylormade says:
Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 5:35 pm
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 4:47 pm
I’m liking Trent’s commentary.
_____________________
No mention of the all the corruption though.
Just like what happened to your precious NSW ALP. It’s the corruption that will get them in the end”
First, don’t forget that you can commit acts of corruption, and other illegal activities, even when you are in opposition, just like the Liberals are in Victoria.
On the other hand, if it’s true that power corrupts in the long run, you are obviously predicting a trashing of the Coalition NSW government next year.
My seat by seat predictions come out as follows:
Labor 41 seats
LNP 29 seats
Independents of various stripes 11 seats
Greens 7 seats
Taylormade says:
Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 5:35 pm
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 4:47 pm
I’m liking Trent’s commentary.
_____________________
No mention of the all the corruption though.
Just like what happened to your precious NSW ALP. It’s the corruption that will get them in the end
中华人民共和国
LOL Taylormade
@somethinglikethat:
I haven’t experienced it myself, just like I haven’t been sexually assaulted. But I’m sure you can agree that one can oppose sexual assault without having personally experienced it. Likewise, I can’t support political leaders who stick the boot in to churches because they teach from the Bible. You might think differently, but that’s my guiding principle.
Which Victorian Premier was felled during a riot by an inkstand?
A curious thought occurred to me.
With Dan Andrews being:
a) A far more known quantity;
b) Unusually polarising even by politicians’ standards, drawing out what appears to be a very visceral dislike of him in at least a large minority of the voting population; and
c) With presumably a few % of the voting population not minding Dan at all but still not giving their vote to Lab for other reasons. . .
Was the debate more about Matthew Guy not needing to badly fluff it to land a large chunk of the [unusually high number of] undecideds who feel they can live with a Premier who doesn’t necessarily inspire them as long as they get rid of the current one?
On that basis, I guess Guy passed the test for many of them. If all you’d heard was about right wing nutjobs, you would have been reassured MG was mainstream. And you don’t get more ‘mainstream’ than making Health the centrepiece of your campaign.
Remember, too, that audience saying who ‘won’ the debate isn’t the same thing as winning their vote (though obviously you’d expect some correlation and anyway, it’s about how that result is reported), and only a plurality of 38% said DA in any case.
Only 3 days to find out if there’s any logic in this theory from my berth 12k miles away from the action!
P.S. I note there is now another contributor called ‘BT’. This is not me, to be clear.
Regarding Andrews’ date of retirement, this is the story I was told by a friend “on the inside”*:
Andrews planning on when to retire went as follows.
Plan A – retire in 2020, so that the new leader had time to build their brand for the 2022 election.
Plan B – Then Covid happened, and he stayed on, with the assumption that he’d have to make unpopular decisions, but also planning to stand down maybe 2021 in time for a new leader to build their brand etc.
Plan C – Then Covid took much longer to fight, and he decided to stay on as there a) wasn’t really time for anyone else to build their brand and b) if the voters came out with the baseball bats, he would take the blame, retire and there’d be a fresh start for the party.
Make of that what you will.
*this particular friend was genuinely on the inside maybe 10-15 years ago, but actually left before Andrews became premier, so take with a grain of salt. But he was pretty insistent that this was all legit.
Of course, if the cookers are right and somehow Slugman wins Mulgrave despite Labor winning the election…
That sounds quite plausible Expat though I’d make one observation:
When James Merlino stood in when Andrews recovered from his back injury, there was
a wide perception that he did a good, workmanlike job, and was less divisive than Andrews.
He seemed like a natural to take the baton until it was (apparently) made clear to him that
would never happen as he was in the wrong faction, so he quit politics.
Yes, I was wondering why Merlino dropped out… He did seem the obvious successor.
So who is it then? The cooker conspiracy text messages in 2020 seemed to think it would be Tim Pallas. Clearly not though? Maybe Jacinta?
From redistributed 2018 results into 2022 seats, this is the combined primary vote of the majors
90%+ (3 districts) Berwick, Glen Waverley, Sunbury
85-89.9% (24 districts) Bayswater, Bellarine, Bendigo East, Box Hill, Bulleen, Bundoora, Carrum, Croydon, Dandenong, Eltham, Euroa, Evelyn, Gippsland South, Lowan, Mulgrave, Narracan, Narre Warren North, Narre Warren South, Niddrie, Pakenham, Ringwood, Rowville, Sydenham, Warrandyte
80-84.9% (24 districts) Ashwood, Bass, Bendigo West, Bentleigh, Caulfield, Clarinda, Cranbourne, Eildon, Greenvale, Hastings, Kalkallo, Kew, Kororoit, Lara, Malvern, Mill Park, Mordialloc, Mornington, Nepean, Oakleigh, St Albans, Tarneit, Wendouree, Yan Yean
75-79.9% (17 districts) Albert Park, Brighton, Eureka, Frankston, Gippsland East, Hawthorn, Ivanhoe, Laverton, Macedon, Monbulk, Murray Plains, Polwarth, Richmond, Ripon, Sandringham, South Barwon, Thomastown
60-74.9% (11 districts) Broadmeadows, Essendon, Footscray, Geelong, Morwell, Ovens Valley, Point Cook, Prahran, Preston, Werribee, Williamstown
Under 60% (9 districts) Benambra, Brunswick, Melbourne, Melton, Mildura, Northcote, Pascoe Vale, Shepparton, South-West Coast
In the federal election’s 39 Victorian electorates, only Aston, Chisholm, and Menzies tallied over 75%, and none over 80%. If you average out the number of candidates per electorate, it was 8.4 in this election and 8.43 in the 39 federal electorates. It was 5.76 candidates in 2018. Unless Dan channels 2021 Mark McGowan, the minors are going to cut that primary vote of both majors down to size
“alias says:
Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 6:30 pm
My seat by seat predictions come out as follows:
Labor 41 seats
LNP 29 seats
Independents of various stripes 11 seats
Greens 7 seats”
alias, are you a Greens voter?
Taylormade wrote, “Just like what happened to your precious NSW ALP. It’s the corruption that will get them in the end.” That’s okay because your Liberal party can preference fascists and other associated nut jobs. Much more moral. You grub!
@Expat
Jacinta Allan without a shadow of a doubt, from what I’ve heard
@Alpo
My analysis has nothing to do with how I may or may not vote. I believe the recent floods
and the heightened awareness of climate change has now put the issue even more front and centre than at the May federal election. My prediction is largely driven by that. And I realise of course that climate change is arguably a less salient issue at a state level for various reasons, but I stand by my prediction.
Rather than ascribe possible motives for my prediction, why don’t we just compare notes once the outcome is known?
Dan could have saved himself a lot of grief by just simply not putting Somyurek in a ministerial position again…
“alias says:
Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 7:23 pm”
Yes, but you haven’t answered my question: Are you a Greens voter?
Nothing personal Alpo, but I don’t propose to answer whatever question of a private nature that you may deem relevant.
Also possible Merlino did not like the job.
“alias says:
Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 7:27 pm”
So, for some mysterious reason you don’t want to tell whether you are a Greens voter or not. That’s fine, you are free to do whatever you like. I vote ALP1, Greens2…. LNP last here in Brisbane, just in case.
Alias.
Are you now or have you ever been a member of the Greens Party of Australia?
Crikey, what is this? A star chamber? Last time I checked we have a secret ballot in Australia, and while having one’s name crossed off the electoral roll is compulsory, voting is not.
However, I will throw this bone: I’m with Groucho Marx when he said: “I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member.”
Quoting Marx hey? I think we have an answer Mr Chairman Alpo.
There’s no need to go interrogating which way people vote just because they are predicting a pessimistic view of the ALP’s prospects. It really shouldn’t be relevant.
11 independents is a very high tally. Can you name the seats that you think are falling? The 7 Green seats I’m going to guess are the 3 they hold now + Richmond + Northcote + Albert Park + Pascoe Vale.
Dear god, nath and Alpo you’re acting like a literal witch mob, it’s pathetic. This is supposed to be a place for discussion, are you asking for their voting record just so you can dismiss their opinions just because they don’t worship the ground labor walks on like you two seem to do? Stop trying to turn this place into an echo chamber.