Resolve Strategic: 53-47 to Labor in Victoria

After an event-packed three days on the election trail, a new poll shows a substantial narrowing in Labor’s lead.

The Age brings a Resolve Strategic poll (not on the website at the time of posting but in today’s print edition) showing a substantial narrowing since the blowout Labor lead the pollster recorded at the start of the campaign four weeks ago, with Labor and the Coalition tied on 36% of the primary vote, having respectively dropped two and gained five. The Greens are down two to 10%, and where the previous poll had independents on 12% and others on 6%, this one has it the other way round – probably in part reflecting a change in response options following the closure of nominations. This translates to a two-party preferred of 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with 59-41 last time. Daniel Andrews’ lead as preferred premier has narrowed from 49-28 to 48-34. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1000.

Other news from the past three days:

• The election for the Gippsland seat of Narracan will not proceed on Saturday following the death of Nationals candidate Shaun Gilchrist. The death of a candidate between the closure of nominations and polling day results in the election for the seat being declared void and a supplementary election being held at a later time. This last happened in 1999 in the seat of Frankston East, when Liberal-turned-independent Peter McLellan died on the day of the election itself. When the election subsequently produced a hung parliament, great weight was placed on the result of the Frankston East supplementary election four weeks later, at which Labor’s win resolved any doubt that the three independents would use their numbers to depose Jeff Kennett’s government and put Labor in power under Steve Bracks. Narracan is unlikely to prove so decisive, which likely loomed as a contest between the Liberals and the Nationals following the retirement of Liberal incumbent Gary Blackwood.

• Matthew Guy said arch-conservative upper house candidate Renee Heath would not be allowed to join the Liberal party room after 60 Minutes and The Age reported on her involvement with religious conservative political organisations, notwithstanding that her links to the City Builders Church were a matter of considerable controversy when she was preselected for Eastern Victoria region in August. Tim Smith, outgoing Liberal member for Kew and estranged former ally of Guy, said on Twitter that Guy had no such power and described the decision as cultural Marxism. Coming well after the close of nominations, the episode does not affect Heath’s place at the top of the party ticket, from which she is seemingly sure to win election. The Age reported yesterday that Heath had engaged lawyers and was considering a religious discrimination complaint against the party in the Australian Human Rights Commission.

• The Age published a recording on Sunday of a freewheeling political exchange involving Timothy Dragan, Liberal candidate for Narre Warren North, at pre-poll booth last week. The recording finds Dragan describing Liberal front-bencher Brad Battin a “prick”, declaring himself “100 per cent” opposed to an Indigenous treaty on the grounds that “we won this land fair and square”, and saying that if elected he will vote against his own party’s emissions targets.

• Police are investigating Catherine Cumming, independent MLC and candidate for the Angry Victorians party, after she told an anti-lockdown rally outside Flinders Street Station of her ambition “to make Daniel Andrews turn into red mist”. For the benefit of those not sharing her army reserve background, Cumming clarified that this involved, in its milder pink form, blowing the subject up. Cumming now argues that she was in fact referring to the red shirts affair. Noting the positions of Angry Victorians and other micro-party parties of the right on their group voting tickets, Deputy Premier Jacinta Allan accused the Liberals of preferencing “Nazis”, prompting a rebuke from Anti-Defamation Commission chairman Dvir Abramovich.

• The impact of the Liberal Party’s change of preference strategy, in which it will place the Greens ahead of Labor as part of a “put Labor last strategy”, is analysed by Antony Green and Kevin Bonham, the latter focusing specifically on the seat of Pascoe Vale, which Bonham argues is a stronger possibility for the Greens than betting markets suggest.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

560 comments on “Resolve Strategic: 53-47 to Labor in Victoria”

Comments Page 10 of 12
1 9 10 11 12
  1. @Adda

    The 11 Legislative Assembly seats where I see independents winning are: Benambra, Brighton, Caulfield, Hawthorn, Kew, Melton, Mildura, Mornington, Shepparton, South-West Coast and Werribee.

  2. I would refer to the comment of Counsel Assisting in the matter referred to IBAC by the Victorian Parliament and particularly that that matter dealt with was “low hanging fruit”

    Firstly, in regard those decrying “corruption”, this matter was referred to IBAC by the Victorian Parliament, where the ALP is the governing party

    And various MP’s suffered consequence of those PUBLIC hearings – those MP’s from the ALP where there were expulsions because Party Rules had been broken

    The recordings of conversations were undertaken by ALP MP’s and provided to IBAC

    This PUBLIC Hearing was not a matter referred to IBAC by the Liberal Party or those associated with it – for perceived party political purposes

    It was referred by the Victorian Parliament, hence a matter of public interest

    But back to “low hanging fruit”

    Simply, the next cab off the rank for IBAC is the Liberal Party and particularly Bastiaan and Sukkar (and the former Member for Menzies)

    There will (probably) not be any recordings of conversations – which assisted in the matters subject to Public Hearings also making those matters “low hanging fruit”

    For reference politically, look to SA as but one example

    In one term the Liberal government imploded, a MP elected as Speaker because the government had deteriorated to a minority government

    That MP, elected to Speaker, detailed his concerns with the Liberal Party

    That they were influenced by religious groups – and Pentecostals

    The Premier, Marshall was generally well regarded

    But he lost significant numbers to the cross bench for a raft of reasons including rorting allowances

    The government lost the Speaker’s Chair to an MP who had moved from the government benches to the cross bench

    And, after one term, the government waa defeated in a landslide result

    There are parallels in each State in regard the Liberal Party, the Pentecostals in ascendancy

    Including particularly Victoria

    And when IBAC moves past “low hanging fruit” the fuller extent in Victoria will become public knowledge

    Making the Liberals in Victoria unelectable

    As replicating both West Australia and South Australia

    These matters will play out over the term of the next Victorian Parliament

    And why some are desperate not to have a Labor government over this period

  3. Any reason you’re picking Werribee and not Point Cook? I would think that with Joe Garra being an already tested quality plus his opponent being a fresh candidate without any local profile, it would be the likelier prospect as opposed to the seat which contains the treasurer.

  4. Knowing how much Andrews is for women it wouldn’t surprise if he told Merlino that he wanted a women to succeed him as premier and that would be Jacinta Allan.

  5. I would say some, but certainly not all, of those 11 independents will get up.

    Sheed and Cupper will probably hold on, but that’s no sure bet in either case. I’m still not convinced that Jacqui Hawkins will take Benambra.

    Most likely new one is Sophie Torney in Kew. Followed by Lowe in Hawthorn. I don’t really see Caulfield or Brighton going indy this time.

    In South West Coast maybe Altmann’s in with a shot. A lot of yard signs for her in Port Fairy when I was there, for whatever that’s worth.

    Can’t work out whether Garra is a real shot, or just another colourful distraction like Yildiz or Lyons last time.

  6. You make a sound point Adda. I might switch those though I’m not sure that being treasurer necessarily counts for that much. Just ask Josh.


    You may well be right. I just reckon, as stated previously, that climate change is really front of mind just now in Victoria. Constant stories about bad floods locally, much more evidence emerging from around the globe, the sense that much more must be done now. Guy’s gambit on gas only reinforces that idea.

  7. Herald Sun 23/11
    Secret police documents reveal the mother of a teenage cyclist who almost died in a collision with Daniel Andrews’ car questioned the Premier and his wife’s version of events in a meeting with investigators 10 days after the crash.

    Hand-written police notes show Ryan Meuleman’s mum, Sonia Johnstone, asked police why no breathalyser test was conducted at the scene and whether the driver was “possibly on the phone/distracted” or speeding.

    According to the notes, the Meuleman family was told a breath test was not taken because in the “opinion” of a senior constable, the driver did not appear “affected by alcohol”.
    Right, so that’s the new procedure now is it.
    You actually have to look like you are affected by alcohol before the cops get the breathalyser out.
    You learn something new everyday.

  8. Willing to be written off as a Labor luvvie, but there is no compelling reason for an indi to take a Labor seat.

    You need: an unpopular sitting member; a government which isn’t acting on the issues which are dear to you; the chance of a hung Parliament and thus some influence.

    I’ve no doubt there are Labor MPs who tick the first box, but the issues dear to the Teals are ticked off – action on climate change, a positive culture around women, and (whether it’s adequate or not’s another matter) a body to investigate corruption.

    There’s also not the media fascination there was at the Fed election (perhaps for the reasons above).

    Chances of a hung Parliament are almost nil, particularly as at least some indis (if they get up at all) will take Lib seats.

  9. Chairman Dan for life: loosening the belt and extending the roads.

    This Victorian election campaign began with an inevitability, the fireworks have been rained upon somewhat, the MSM have reached new depths of despair and acrimony and thankfully only a few days to finish the chapter, read the next chapter or read a different book.

    The good advice not to believe everything you read has become don’t believe anything you read.

    The free press has become the tree press with paid parking.

    The ABC has been readied for sale with available subsidies, the new owners ready to bestow government, as a feudal fiefdom cling wrapped across our burning hot, freezing cold, fire scarred, drowning but lucky country.

    I’m very much looking forward to seeing the results given the various spicy condiments “liberally” sprinkled over the land named after a distance departed Queen.

    The ‘washup of the legislative council will be entertaining if nothing else.

    Perhaps Chairman Dan for life will lose control of the legislative assembly and Labor have the numbers and support to control the Legislative council.

    Will Michael reappear with some more surprising poll outcomes before even the “paying piper’ ?

  10. People shouldn’t really be speculating about the 2026 election until the ballots are all counted from next week’s 2022 election. If nothing else, the outcome will determine the (State-wide and local) political terrain upon which 2026 will be fought. The optimists thinking that Labor will win in 2026(!), or even get a swing toward them in 2026(!!), fail to take into account the simple fact that the Andrews Govt will have rabid Murdoch/Costello propagandists (“journalists”, they call themselves!) sniping at them 25/7 for the intervening period. This will be true regardless of who wins this election or by how much.

    Australia’s media landscape is best described as a toxic swamp, and it’s shafting our democracy now as it has been for decades.

  11. Mexicanbeemersays:
    Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 8:22 pm
    Knowing how much Andrews is for women it wouldn’t surprise if he told Merlino that he wanted a women to succeed him as premier and that would be Jacinta Allan.
    Poor Jane Garrett.
    May God rest her soul.

  12. Maybe the Herald-Sun is trying to get IBAC to investigate a culture of Government interference in the Victorian Police at the time of that accident in 2013 ?

    I can’t remember whether Baillieu was still Premier then or if it was Napthine.

  13. “zoomster says:
    Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 8:57 pm
    ….Labor (and Dan) have had the media sniping at them for the last decade. It doesn’t seem to have had much effect.”

    Murdoch and his mates are making a fatal mistake: Believing that the People never change and that once Morons, always Morons.

  14. zoomster says:

    Chances of a hung Parliament are almost nil, particularly as at least some indis (if they get up at all) will take Lib seats.
    Surely it doesn’t matter how many seats the Libs hold, but rather how many Labor end up with.

  15. So SportsBet has had a massive drop in the last few hours.

    Lab out from $1.04 to $1.15

    Libs into $6.00 from $10.00

    From an SA seat, I only really read what’s here or see the hate online.

    It’s been a fly on the wall watching this horrible election.

  16. Taylormade says:
    Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 8:44 pm
    Herald Sun 23/11
    Secret police documents reveal the mother of a teenage cyclist who almost died in a collision with Daniel Andrews’ car questioned the Premier and his wife’s version of events in a meeting with investigators 10 days after the crash.

    Hand-written police notes show Ryan Meuleman’s mum, Sonia Johnstone, asked police why no breathalyser test was conducted at the scene and whether the driver was “possibly on the phone/distracted” or speeding.

    According to the notes, the Meuleman family was told a breath test was not taken because in the “opinion” of a senior constable, the driver did not appear “affected by alcohol”.
    Right, so that’s the new procedure now is it.
    You actually have to look like you are affected by alcohol before the cops get the breathalyser out.
    You learn something new everyday.
    LOL Taylormade.

  17. Reading through the Morgan report – their seat-by-seat predictions are very close to mine, the main difference being I’m not as confident about the indies getting so many.

    One detail in there that is worth noting – Morgan suggests the seats that will determine whether Labor govern in majority or minority are Ringwood, Box Hill and South Barwon.

    This gels with what someone else posted here (or maybe on Tallyroom, don’t remember) that some Labor campaign people had told them the decisive seat would be Ringwood.

  18. Media will tell us who its proprietors want us to vote for

    So who are the proprietors and the Chairs?

    The first question is with whom am I transacting business

    In regards media, Murdoch, Stokes and Costello – and an ABC Chair appointed by a Liberal government

    10 is under American ownership

    What Australia needs is a diversified media ownership – not the concentration we have now

    That said, despite this media concentration, we have ALP governments entrenched in all jurisdictions except NSW and Tasmania

    So what is their actual influence?

    They attempt to frame a narrative – but how successful are they?

    So an ALP government providing grants to a Union is alluded to as “corrupt”


    And who would refer such a matter?

    And the goings on on the Peninsula were exclusively Liberal Party operatives, from Councillors to donors (noting an aspiring ALP candidate did accept a donation – from someone whose associations were with the Liberal Party)

    So a headline to influence an opinion – innuendo minus detail

    In all such matters the commentary of substance is from Counsel Assisting

    Everything else is a defence

    So someone acting for a defendant

    Well, they would say that wouldn’t they?

    They come with a vested interest to defend – including by muddying the waters and seeking deflection (and misrepresenting)

  19. The 55-45 in Morgan seems to be based on respondent allocated preferences. Kevin Bonham has tweeted his estimate based on preference flows from the last election is 57-43.

  20. @Expat

    That was me on here with the quote from Labor party figures saying Ringwood could prove to be pivotal seat. I also noted that Labor’s candidate Will Fowles is copping some heat over his encounter with a hotel room door. One “minor” party Advance has letterboxed with a fairly sophisticated pamphlet reproducing newspaper headlines about the incident at the time.

  21. Morgan

    Minutes after I hit publish on this article, Morgan released an SMS poll taken over the previous two days with a 55-45 2PP obtained by unstated means from primaries of Labor 38 Coalition 32.5 Greens 12.5 Teal INDs 4.5 DHJP 1 UAP 0.5 (not running in lower house so shouldn’t even be included) leaving 11 for other Independents and other parties. Once again the 2PP method (whatever it is) seems to be selling Labor short because Labor would win thumpingly on these numbers (my last-election estimate is 57-43).

    An update

  22. Here we go again says:
    Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 9:32 pm

    …What Australia needs is a diversified media ownership – not the concentration we have now…


    I reckon the way for Albo to achieve greater media ownership diversity is to get the Productivity Commission to look at our media sector from a productivity perspective.

    Increased productivity is supposed to be driven by increased competition.

    So, Albo can require media diversification on “productivity” (not “bias”) grounds.

    The mainstream media will still scream…

  23. Hornburger

    “The ALP on 55% (down 2% points since early November) has an election-winning lead over the L-NP Coalition on 45% (up 2% points), on a two-party preferred basis”

    Thanks for that. I live in SA so do not have a feel of the “vibe” in Melbourne. But I could not understand why the ABC said this would be a “tough battle”.

    – no opinion poll I have seen has Labor leading by less than 53/47, beyond MOE
    – the Murdoch press has been a tougher opponent than Matthew Guy
    – Guy is not a smiling unknown who might sneak in like Scomo in 2019
    – Guy is known, disliked, and carries a lot of baggage
    – his candidates have a host of scandals including racism and preselections
    – there is still a serious risks teals/indies will take Liberal seats; the Liberals have not repented any of the policy positions that cost them seats at the Fed election
    – Victoria’s economy, along with WA, is the best performing in Australia

    So seriously, how does Mathew Guy win? Mass amnesia? Hypnosis?

  24. I have read articles proclaiming the impending death of conservative parties for 40 years; always on demographic grounds; and over numerous countries. It never works out that way because of electoral systems and because parties’ ideologies adapt. Exhibit A, how conservatism has morphed from neoliberalism into nationalism over the last decade. Exhibit B, how Australia is basically still a two party system because of preferential voting. Exhibit C how Latinos in the USA have shifted their voting patterns drastically.

    That said, this is a national observation. There can certainly be regional differences and Victorian Labor should obviously be able to win four times out of five unless it totally implodes.

    And BTW as a Queenslander I can say it makes eminent visceral sense to vote Labor at a State level and LNP at a Federal level. One is to do with running services and the State LNP are proven vandals and incompetents; the other is to do with national economic and social policy and Qld is a relatively conservative State.

  25. @alias

    Thanks, I couldn’t remember where I read it.

    I doubt a “scandal fishing” letterboxing campaign by one of the minors will make much difference.

  26. This could be complete garbage but who knows.
    But in Mulgrave the Herald Sun is saying Cook leads Andrews 57-43 on exit polling.
    The speeches on Saturday could be interesting.
    Also, front page on the Herald Sun tomorrow says minority government for Labor with it losing 12 seats at least from independent polling.
    Either Morgan is on drugs or this polling is stuffed.
    I remember polling in Wisconsin had Biden leading Trump by 17pts and he won by 1 or 2 in 2020. Complete push polling there.

  27. Taylormaid: “Right, so that’s the new procedure now is it.
    You actually have to look like you are affected by alcohol before the cops get the breathalyser out.”

    ? It’s called “probable cause” dawg.

  28. I don’t know of any.
    But on Saturday night “a fine victory but I am out of here and Jacinta is making the speech as I am no longer a member of parliament.”

  29. I think Morgan’s prediction of seats is mostly pretty good other than the following:

    – Brighton: this is one of the worst “teal” chances I think, and also the Greens are not recommending preferences to her either (significant because of the large Greens vote in Elwood), so I don’t think the IND can overtake Labor here. It will remain ALP v LIB, and unfortunately I think IND preferences will help Newbury narrowly hold.

    – Ashwood: This is only here based on uniform swing, and I think it’s clear the swing will be far from uniform. This isn’t an area likely to swing. ALP should retain with a similar margin I think.

    The rest of their seat predictions could very well be bang on…

    @michael, I wouldn’t put any stock into exit polls. Especially prepoll exit polls, since early voting skews conservative, and in a hostile prepoll environment I’d say those voting against Dan would be much more willing to share who they voted for than ALP voters, who in this case would have the “shy” factor due to all the intimidation tactics by anti-Dan types or if the “mood” is an anti-Dan one.

    Also if this exit polling is being conducted on behalf of 3AW and/or the Herald Sun as a tactic to whip up momentum for Cook, their selection of participants is most likely questionable.

  30. michael: “… the Herald Sun tomorrow says minority government for Labor with it losing 12 seats at least from independent polling.“

    “independent”: is that a euphemism for “anonymous”?

  31. Kirsdarke says:
    Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 11:02 pm


    Not that I know of in Australia, at least in the age of party politics. I think it happened a few times in Colonial parliaments, but not sure on the specifics.
    Google only knows of Bruce and Howard but their parties lost those elections.

  32. If Anwar Ibrahim prevails as next PM in the stalemate that is currently playing out in Malaysia, then Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s loss in his seat of Langkawi (he lost his deposit) sort of meets that benchmark, given Dr M was PM after the previous election, though it’s all considerably more complicated than that.

    More interesting is that Anwar will have finally achieved his goal after their most complicated relationship spanning decades.

  33. It’s Redbridge but that’s all I can read. Have to wait for Print Edition or when the Sun puts on the website. I think its individual polling of seats.

  34. From interstate, that independent in Mulgrave looks exceptionally unattractive on several fronts, especially for a safe Labor seat . How can he possibly win?

  35. Going to make my prediction (using Ben Raue’s pendulum as a basis)

    The general trend will be that Sea/Tree changers move left, as well as inner and middle suburbs (including Liberal areas), and Geelong/Bendigo/Ballarat. Whether that’s Labor, Greens or Teals will depend on the local seat. Working class and lower middle class outer suburbs in the West, North and Southeast move right, particularly in growth areas. Middle class/middle ring generally the same, maybe even slightly left. Regional areas that don’t have sea/tree changers move slightly right but strong independents still competitive. Greens do better than 2018, almost as good as federal election but not quite.

    Ultimately Labor wins the election and forms majority government (unless I’ve screwed up the count) and continues as planned. It will be quite dire for the Liberals with their strategy getting swings but not paying off in terms of seats. There may even be a case that the very large progressive crossbench are the real opposition. The future of the Liberal party may depend on Pesutto winning and being able to lead the party away from the extreme right – this way they can win back teal seats (or form government in 2026 with teal support), and Labor will need to sandbag seats they never thought they’d lose.

    Going seat by seat:
    ALP gains and notional gains from Liberal: Bayswater, Bass , Glen Waverley, Polwarth (Labor actually trying + sea/tree changers)
    ALP losses, not sure to whom: Melton (Liberal or conservative independent – one of the seats where
    Labor actually has a slim enough margin to lose )
    ALP gain notionally “held” Ripon (I think Ballarat will swing left and that will make up for Staley’s sandbagging)

    LNP gains and notional gains from Labor: Hastings, Pakenham, Morwell
    LNP losses, not sure to whom: Caulfield (Teal or Labor)

    Teal gains from LNP – Mildura (notional), Benambra, Sandringham, Kew, Mornington, Brighton

    (Teals aren’t going to be as popular as federal, but the latter 4 seats are trending left and teals will be seen as the preferred outlet).

    Green gains from ALP – Richmond, Northcote, Albert Park, Pascoe Vale

    Can’t call: Hawthorn (demographics would suggest LNP->ALP swing, but popular former incumbent may reverse that, some evidence Labor isn’t trying, plus a teal with mixed evidence on success)
    (Morwell will also be a mess but I don’t see anyone other than a Lib or Nat coming out on top.)

    Predicted retains with aspects worth commenting on:

    * Warrandyte (strong ALP campaign momentum, but relatively large margin and not particularly favourable demographically)
    * South West Coast (good conditions for indie win, but multiple candidates + lots of traditional country area)
    * Malvern (no teal running, will get a swing towards Labor and Greens but not enough campaign to defeat O’Brien)
    * Croydon (very little hype despite a close margin)

    * Preston, Footscray, Williamstown (Winnable due to Liberal-> Green preferences and trending Green, similar to Pascoe Vale, but lackluster Greens campaigns and no hype)
    * Essendon, Ivanhoe (Same as above + Much harder to overtake Libs)
    * Nepean (strong ALP incumbent + favourable blue ribbon/sea changer demographic. Possible lockdown resentment and a lot of people expect ALP to lose this one, but I don’t)
    * Ringwood (would have been in play but poor Liberal candidate choice should keep this one in the ALP column)
    * Werribee (large swing against but too many dummy candidates for a contender to emerge + Libs too weak)
    * Cranbourne (large swing but not quite large enough to overcome sandbagging)
    * Many very safe ALP seats in growth areas (such as Tarneit, Point Cook and Greenvale) will be retained but with enormous swings against.

    * Prahran (Liberals come 3rd, may have been close if not for Liberal preferences to Greens over Labor)

    * Shepparton (Sheed retains, in case anyone had any doubt)

  36. The “shambolic” week the Libs had last week wasn’t that shambolic at all it seems.

    The Pentecostal infiltration.
    Suggesting interference from the VEC.
    Extremist candidates and preferences.
    Guy being referred to IBAC.

    The Roy Morgan Poll has their support increasing.

    Are the mass media bias and hit jobs on Labor/Andrews drowning out the Libs’ cock ups?

  37. @Historyintime: He is literally a dodgy businessman who had his kitchen shut down by the health authorities.

    Regardless of whether the hospital death linked to his company was accurate or potentially unfair, the fact is that his kitchen was still filthy, unhygenic, and not up to standard. The photos are public.

    Seems strange to throw support behind a negligent business owner, blaming the Premier for health authorities doing their job.

    So I agree. He’ll just get votes from cookers and some Lib voters thinking he’s their best chance to beat Dan but that won’t wipe 15.8% off Labor’s 2PP. He might not even make the 2CP either. The fact that the “exit poll” is only asking for an ALP v IND 2CP is flawed in itself.

  38. I had wondered whether it was legal to publish exit polls of prepoll voters. On Election Day those conducting exit polls are banned from publishing any results until 6pm. I suppose this is due to the ‘blackout’.

    Exit polls haven’t been very reliable historically (or did I forget about Federal Labor’s big majority win in 2013??) – maybe because they don’t go through the same rigorous processes due to time constraints

    Ps – auto spell made ‘peephole’ when I misspelt ‘prepoll’ – lol

  39. That exit poll in the Herald-Sun gave me just the laugh I needed before bed. A sample of … 159! ROFLMAO. You might as well consult chicken entrails.
    If it’s indeed Redbridge, then I’ve lost all respect for them: Kos hasn’t even mentioned it yet on his Twitter.

  40. Kevin Bonham’s thoughts on the Mulgrave “exit poll” #pollshapedobject

    – “independent polling” by an unnamed entity on Ian Cook’s behalf, probably not an actual pollster.
    – Sample of 159 voters, so even with a perfect sample, 57% is well within the margin of error.
    – Prepoll skewed against Andrews about 3.4% compared to final result in 2018.

    So probably wouldn’t place too much faith in this.

    Surely not Redbridge, putting his name to a random exit poll of 159 voters would be career suicide for Kos. And he hasn’t tweeted anything etc.

  41. I will be interested to see the Redbridge numbers. One thing I recall about their individual seat polls in the lead up to the federal election, was their tendancy to be extremely over generous to fringe parties such as the UAP and Liberal Democrats. Something in their sampling seemed to give too much weight to people who would vote for such parties. Of course, this may have been cleaned up. As for the Mulgrave “poll”, next.

  42. You misunderstood. Cook guys did the exit polling. Redbridge wouldn’t do that in a million years.
    Redbridge are doing the individual seat polling in the Herald Sun. The front page of the Herald Sun says Redbridge polling in a number (don’t know how many) of seats shows Labor will lose 12 and go into minority government.

Comments Page 10 of 12
1 9 10 11 12

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *