Resolve Strategic: 53-47 to Labor in Victoria

After an event-packed three days on the election trail, a new poll shows a substantial narrowing in Labor’s lead.

The Age brings a Resolve Strategic poll (not on the website at the time of posting but in today’s print edition) showing a substantial narrowing since the blowout Labor lead the pollster recorded at the start of the campaign four weeks ago, with Labor and the Coalition tied on 36% of the primary vote, having respectively dropped two and gained five. The Greens are down two to 10%, and where the previous poll had independents on 12% and others on 6%, this one has it the other way round – probably in part reflecting a change in response options following the closure of nominations. This translates to a two-party preferred of 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with 59-41 last time. Daniel Andrews’ lead as preferred premier has narrowed from 49-28 to 48-34. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1000.

Other news from the past three days:

• The election for the Gippsland seat of Narracan will not proceed on Saturday following the death of Nationals candidate Shaun Gilchrist. The death of a candidate between the closure of nominations and polling day results in the election for the seat being declared void and a supplementary election being held at a later time. This last happened in 1999 in the seat of Frankston East, when Liberal-turned-independent Peter McLellan died on the day of the election itself. When the election subsequently produced a hung parliament, great weight was placed on the result of the Frankston East supplementary election four weeks later, at which Labor’s win resolved any doubt that the three independents would use their numbers to depose Jeff Kennett’s government and put Labor in power under Steve Bracks. Narracan is unlikely to prove so decisive, which likely loomed as a contest between the Liberals and the Nationals following the retirement of Liberal incumbent Gary Blackwood.

• Matthew Guy said arch-conservative upper house candidate Renee Heath would not be allowed to join the Liberal party room after 60 Minutes and The Age reported on her involvement with religious conservative political organisations, notwithstanding that her links to the City Builders Church were a matter of considerable controversy when she was preselected for Eastern Victoria region in August. Tim Smith, outgoing Liberal member for Kew and estranged former ally of Guy, said on Twitter that Guy had no such power and described the decision as cultural Marxism. Coming well after the close of nominations, the episode does not affect Heath’s place at the top of the party ticket, from which she is seemingly sure to win election. The Age reported yesterday that Heath had engaged lawyers and was considering a religious discrimination complaint against the party in the Australian Human Rights Commission.

• The Age published a recording on Sunday of a freewheeling political exchange involving Timothy Dragan, Liberal candidate for Narre Warren North, at pre-poll booth last week. The recording finds Dragan describing Liberal front-bencher Brad Battin a “prick”, declaring himself “100 per cent” opposed to an Indigenous treaty on the grounds that “we won this land fair and square”, and saying that if elected he will vote against his own party’s emissions targets.

• Police are investigating Catherine Cumming, independent MLC and candidate for the Angry Victorians party, after she told an anti-lockdown rally outside Flinders Street Station of her ambition “to make Daniel Andrews turn into red mist”. For the benefit of those not sharing her army reserve background, Cumming clarified that this involved, in its milder pink form, blowing the subject up. Cumming now argues that she was in fact referring to the red shirts affair. Noting the positions of Angry Victorians and other micro-party parties of the right on their group voting tickets, Deputy Premier Jacinta Allan accused the Liberals of preferencing “Nazis”, prompting a rebuke from Anti-Defamation Commission chairman Dvir Abramovich.

• The impact of the Liberal Party’s change of preference strategy, in which it will place the Greens ahead of Labor as part of a “put Labor last strategy”, is analysed by Antony Green and Kevin Bonham, the latter focusing specifically on the seat of Pascoe Vale, which Bonham argues is a stronger possibility for the Greens than betting markets suggest.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

560 comments on “Resolve Strategic: 53-47 to Labor in Victoria”

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  1. This feels like it will be a fanciful extrapolation of what the seat polls actually show because it is the Herald Sun, but I suppose we can only wait to see the actual poll data.

    The Mulgrave thing demonstrates why one would be silly to pretend the Herald Sun is reporting anything straight.

  2. My opinion is Dan is in a dangerous area in the suburbs. If his seat was closer to the CBD, no problem but out in Mulgrave if the swing is on watch out. Abbott got wiped out by Zali, if Cook has come across well there (have no idea), he may be chance. Guess what the focus is going to be on tomorrow.

  3. My guess is that Mulgrave won’t be one of the 12 seats the Redbridge polling shows at risk, because if it was then you can guarantee the headline on the Herald Sun front page you saw would have been about Dan losing his seat, rather than minority government; or that they wouldn’t even bother mentioning the dodgy exit poll if the Redbridge seat poll also showed Dan losing.

    Thanks for the extra info on the Mulgrave exit poll too, confirms that it’s complete and utter garbage. Cook’s campaign just trying to drum up momentum.

    Dan will cop a swing but be safe.

  4. I have no idea if Redbridge have polled Mulgrave, but if they have and Dan’s well in front, then the exit poll does not mean anything. then. Will wait and see.

  5. I agree. Knowing the Herald Sun, the options would be:

    – Redbridge polled Mulgrave and it showed Dan losing: headline news and no need to even mention less reliable exit poll.

    – Redbridge polled Mulgrave and it showed Dan winning: HS probably won’t mention Redbridge Mulgrave poll at all, and just reports exit poll.

    – Redbridge didn’t poll Mulgrave: HS just reports on exit poll.

    So if the front page only spruiks the exit poll for Mulgrave, I think the first scenario can be ruled out. Mulgrave either wouldn’t have been polled at all, or it was but it didn’t support the exit poll, and we’d never really know either way. That’s how I’d interpret it anyway.

  6. In 2014 Dan won with 54% of the 2PP
    In 2018 Dan won with 61% of the 2PP. (this was inflated because of what happened in Canberra in August 2018).
    Its tighter than you think.

  7. I’m confident Mulgrave is safe. Andrews would need to be under 40% on primary vote (a 20% drop) to be at risk of losing, and I expect based on past contests in the federal election that even in that unlikely scenario the preferences would leak towards him by more than enough to win.

  8. The redistribution has added about 5% to his margin though, as the seat has become more focused on Springvale now.

    Also though, I don’t think the dumping of Turnbull had a particularly significant effect in the working class, semi-industrial middle suburbs. It was more the inner south & east where the Liberals got punished with huge swings for that (Brighton, Hawthorn, Sandringham, Prahran, Malvern, etc).

    In areas like Mulgrave the Labor swing would have been more about Dan’s huge approval ratings at that time (much higher than now) and the big build infrastructure agenda, coupled with a racist scare campaign by the Liberals going down like a lead balloon in multicultural seats like Mulgrave.

  9. Yes he needs to drop to 40% (-17%) to be in trouble with the Greens polling 6% in 2018. He looks safe but I can see parallels to what happened to Abbott, polarising etc and I have a feeling it will be one to watch.
    Herald Sun still have not posted Redbridge so have to see in the morning what it looks like.

  10. The ALP took big swings (mostly over 10%) against it on primary vote in the parts of Mulgrave that are in the City of Dandenong. And there wasn`t even a significant independent campaign in any of those seats. I will not be counting any Mulgrave chickens before they hatch on election night.

  11. Well I’ll be happy to count the chickens right now. The Fowler result required an unpopular parachutee to face against a veteran campaigner with a considerable local network and an easy means to paint herself as the local fighting against the out of touch outsider. Yet Keneally still got 36% of the primary vote and 48.4% 2PP. Greens preference flows went 35% to Dai Le. Liberal flows by about 70%. Basically, clearly favourable preference flows with the electorate rejecting the Labor candidate. And still the margin was so narrow.

    Andrews is not Keneally. Andrews has a powerful personal brand and is the long-time incumbent premier at the top of the ballot. There is no Dai Le among his opponents, but instead a motley crew of conspiracists competing for the minority of the voters that strongly dislike Andrews. Ian Cook does not have the personal brand to distinguish himself from the pack, nor the electoral appeal to seem a compelling or reasonable alternative to the voter who supported Dan in 2018 but is on the fence in 2022. Preferences will leak like a sieve to Andrews simply because he is a known quantity while everyone else is unknown, even if Cook can scramble to making the 2CP.

    Andrews going from 59% to under 40% would be implausible enough without factoring in the lack of any alternative candidate who is going to stand out from the pack and soak up preferences.

  12. The political campaign staged by Murdoch and affiliates during this Victorian election campaign has to be one of the most acrimonious campaigns ever undertaken by the media representing the American media mogul.

    The last hurrah!

    Andrews’ performance during the last two elections, his achievements as a leader and his performance since becoming a politician have been top shelf, exhilarating and daring.

    Andrews has stood firm against the establishment and the tirades of frenzied misinformation from the now denigrated MSM and the wannabe all powerful media players.

    This election is now just a defacto campaign between Andrews and Labor versus the aging mogul and his poorly minnows from the ashes of an irrelevant liberal party and the almost buried tree media.

    Shakespearean to the bootstraps!

    The irony of a largely disinterested voting public being asked to play Claudius,(the aging Murdoch) on the same stage as the Prince of Mulgrave, Andrews, enacting revenge for years of abuse and crimes by the hideous influence of a dishonoured MSM.

    Saturday will engage more spectators than the last cricket match!

    Surely , this can only end one way!

  13. @goll

    I agree and disagree with your statement. The Murdoch stunts have been disgusting and signals the end of any last shread of credibility MSM has in this country.

    But as for Dan, his arrogance, just like Jeff, may be his downfall. I’m rusted on ALP and I just could not vote for the man. It’s the first time ever I haven’t voted ALP, and that’s with knowing how bad the alternative is.

    Had Dan shown a bit more compassion during the Lockdowns the stories might be different. But the way he spoke down to people who were really hurting during Lockdown will never be forgiven by many.

  14. Dan Andrews is guilty of ‘speaking down to people during lockdown’!?! Sorry, but I watched every one of his daily press conferences and he only ever seemed straight down the line. How can you ‘speak down’ to someone during a pandemic anyway? He didn’t go, ‘There, there, everything’s going to be all right! You’re going to have to wear a mask, I hope it doesn’t hurt you. And here’s money to keep you and your family going during lockdown as you stay home, I hope that you don’t take offence at that but, too bad, so sad.’ !?!

    Honestly, some people just want to get butt hurt over the tiniest, little most imaginary thing.

  15. Oliver Sutton @ #517 Thursday, November 24th, 2022 – 5:54 am

    “Details regarding the extent of Gilchrist’s court appearances and the fact he had been charged more than a year before the state election raise further questions about how he was preselected.”

    Honestly, this sort of thing and watching the way Matthew Guy brushes it off when asked about it, simply indicates that a Victorian state Liberal government headed by Guy as Premier would be one of the most venal in the state’s history.

  16. Luke @ #514 Thursday, November 24th, 2022 – 5:33 am


    I agree and disagree with your statement. The Murdoch stunts have been disgusting and signals the end of any last shread of credibility MSM has in this country.

    But as for Dan, his arrogance, just like Jeff, may be his downfall. I’m rusted on ALP and I just could not vote for the man. It’s the first time ever I haven’t voted ALP, and that’s with knowing how bad the alternative is.

    Had Dan shown a bit more compassion during the Lockdowns the stories might be different. But the way he spoke down to people who were really hurting during Lockdown will never be forgiven by many.

    Don’t worry Luke you’ll get over it eventually I’m sure.

  17. Daily updates on postal and early votes for the 2022 State election. The early voting period runs from Monday 14 November to Friday 25 November.
    Date Early votes Postal votes returned
    Monday 14 November 115,065 0
    Tuesday 15 November 154,829 0
    Wednesday 16 November 131,631 0
    Thursday 17 November 154,664 669
    Friday 18 November 141,212 9,069
    Saturday 19 November 120,502 15
    Sunday 20 November 48 0
    Monday 21 November 166,225 43,581
    Tuesday 22 November 186,114 57,488
    Wednesday 23 November 200,013 87,473
    Total 1,370,303 198,295

  18. LOL @ newsltd propaganda , a LOL Taylormade moment

    These so called exit poll claimed
    Kevin Rudd would lose his seat,
    reality Rudd’s primary vote increased

    Anthony Albanese was set to lose his seat, reality Albanese primary vote increased

    Probably be the same for Daniel Andrews

  19. I suppose there has been a lot of “I’ve voted Labor all my life but I can’t vote for Whitlam
    the carbon tax
    Bill Shorten
    ending refunds of excess franking credits
    Dan Andrews…”

  20. The Herald Sun article is a summary of Redbridge polling, where they think seats are at, its kinda what Kos Samaras has been saying on twitter for a while, he has talked up the minority government likelihood. Can’t see any charts or individual seat polls (I reading a mobile version of the article).

    Labor on track to lose up to a dozen seats in Victorian election
    Bombshell new polling reveals Labor is in danger of losing about a dozen seats with the most likely election outcome being a Labor minority government.

    Shannon Deery @s_deery
    3 min read November 24, 2022 – 6:00AM

    Victoria is on course for a minority government, with Labor losing about a dozen seats in Saturday’s election, according to an analysis by a major bipartisan polling agency.

    RedBridge Group is predicting the most likely scenario on November 26 will see Labor on about 43 seats – two short of the 45 needed to form a government in its own right.

    Research suggests support for Labor – which now boasts 55 seats to the Coalition’s 27 – is sliding fast.

    RedBridge – which has conducted extensive polling and hundreds of focus groups in key seats across the state over the past two years – warns if Labor’s fears of a late tidal wave of revolt against Daniel Andrews are realised, the party could lose anything from 15 to 25 seats.

    But a mass exodus is thought to be extremely unlikely, with the Coalition believed to be too far behind to make up the total needed for victory while it is also expected to lose key seats to the teals.

    The best-case scenario for Labor would see the party on 48 seats and a majority for the third time in a row, according to the pollsters, but that would still wipe its 2018 gains and leave it with the lowest number of seats since coming to power in 2014.

    However the most likely scenario is a Labor minority, forcing it to do a deal with regional independents, teals or the Greens.

    The RedBridge analysis predicts Labor will lose key seats of Bayswater, Bass, Nepean and Pakenham to the Liberal Party, while Ashwood, Box Hill and Ringwood are under serious threat.

    In Melbourne’s west, Melton, Point Cook and Werribee, which is currently held by Treasurer Tim Pallas, could all be lost to independent candidates.

    Pollsters have been predicting the party is unlikely to retain Melton, with a recent redistribution favouring Dr Ian Birchall, who is running again after a strong showing in 2018 when Labor picked up just 35 per cent of the primary vote.

    The Greens are tipped to win Richmond and Northcote from Labor, with both Albert Park and Footscray also considered as chances for the minor party.

    Party insiders say even the typically safe Labor seat of Pascoe Vale could fall to the Greens.

    Labor is not expected to retain the seat of Hawthorn, which it won unexpectedly in 2018, while Eltham, Monbulk, Cranbourne and Eureka are all considered to be in play for the Coalition.

  21. Hmmm…there seems to have been a disturbance in the force this last day or so…but the evidence, and informed commentary, still point to an ALP majority at this point. The next most likely scenario, an ALP minority government, would be ok by me. In fact I’d welcome it as I think it would force the government to take integrity more seriously (better parliamentary accountability of IBAC, independent and increased IBAC funding plus an easing of the exceptional circumstances test for public hearings). It would hopefully also force the government to remove GVTs, though the logistics of that with an Upper House with a large number of MPs who owed their salary to GVTs could be challenging. It might also be in the interests of the government to be in a position where it had to consult more widely. I suspect a perception of arrogance is harming them – a common phenomenon for longer term governments with a healthy majority in Parliament.

    Poor Jeremy! If only he’d been a little more circumspect he’d be here revelling in hung Parliament heaven, and driving other Bludgers crazy.

  22. If Dan Andrews lost in Mulgrave (I think highly unlikely), it’s really only a loss for him. Jacinta Allan is more than capable and would continue the agenda set by the govt over the past eight years. Unlike the Libs, Labor understands the meaning of team. When Guy resigns after the likely loss on Sat, who is going to lead them? It’s a conga line of mediocrity over there.

    It’d be business as usual really.

  23. Luke
    The group that dislikes Andrews and are attempting to win an election by creating a “Dan is Jeff” similarity are the LNP “desperates “.

    The hurt caused by the Jeff rejection goes very deep.

    At the last federal election, had Dan Andrews been thrown into the position of leader of the parliamentary Labor Party, the Labor Party would had romped in, more so than it did with Anthony Albanese at the helm .

    The position the Victorian LNP find themselves in at this election is that after eight years enough voters see the quality of leadership provided by Andrews.

    The Herald Sun/Murdoch mob have conducted an anti Labor/ Dan campaign for a prolonged time period and at this stage have made little progress.

    Some voters have fallen for the “arrogant” Dan brouhaha, most just think it’s a joke.

    Matthew Guy knows how to lose an election. Matthew Guy is a “claytons” leader.
    And that is the LNP problem. Even “arrogant” Jeff said that he’d wished that he had nominated.

    Saturday will throw up’ whatever’. Dan will make a statement of ‘whatever’ on Saturday night but ‘whatever’ it is , it won’t be arrogant.

  24. That Herald-Sun article seems to be based on wishful thinking rather than actual polls.

    It’s all ‘could be’ ‘tipped to’ – when you look at the actual seats predicted to change hands, there’s not enough (five – the rest are ‘coulds’ or ‘tipped to’) to send the government into minority.

    Of course, anything ‘could’ happen, and it you base your analyses on ‘coulds’ you can get any result you want.

  25. Redbridge published the actual polling numbers repeatedly in the Fed election because it suited their Teal clients to demonstrate that they could win and were worth voting for and worth donating to, volunteering for etc.

    I have to draw the conclusion here that if the best they can do is getting the Herald Sun to publish a windy screed with no actual numbers, the numbers don’t look so hot.

  26. I agree Zoomster. And of the seats that are nominated as potential losses, many of them are marginal seats that would be quite plausible losses based on fundamentals irrespective of this poll – eg Pakenham, Bayswater, Bass, Nepean etc. I’d be very surprised if Eureka is in play though. I’ve thought for a while that based on history and fundamentals this election is more likely to produce a reversion to the mean result than to be a second Danslide.

  27. Kos has tweeted an image of the print edition with more details you can read, and made some comments below.

    “Labor to win 48 to 41 seats. If they fall below the required number to form government in their own right (45), it wont be all due to seats won by the LNP, but also the Greens and possibly independents.
    Naturally, the on the day vote may turn up and shake all this up.
    There are a lot of seats that sit within the margin of error for being lost or retained. So hence the wide gap. As for the Libs winning, that would require a massive turn around by the on the day voters.”

  28. Morgan poll seems to be a bit dodgy for the Lib/nats 2pp and the title that support fo the lib/nats is growing

    Primary vote support for the two major parties shows the ALP now at 38% (down 4.9% points from the 2018 Victorian Election) ahead of the L-NP on 32.5% (down 2.7% points).

    The Lib/nats according to morgan poll has lost 3% since 2018 (35%) not making ground at all

  29. Just read that Herald-Sun piece via Kos’ tweet. Yawn. As others have pointed out, no new data behind it whatsoever. And a surfeit of ‘ifs’ and ‘maybes’: feelpinion. Smells like a last-ditch attempt to big up Redbridge’s teal clients — who look like they’re fizzling out. Which has then been turned by the H-S to its own ends. (Assuming that’s the order in which things happened.)
    Can safely be ignored — especially with a new YouGov Newspoll still coming (hopefully tonight).

  30. The agenda of Murdoch and his press is well known

    It is a propaganda press

    In the absence of credibility due to its infiltration by those recruited to membership by Bastiaan and Sukkar, the candidates it accordingly endorses and a recycled Leader who led it to a landslide loss in 2018, the LNP expect to lose in 2022, reflecting results federally, in West Australia and in South Australia (and in NSW from polling)

    So the LNP have played the man – and played as dirty as it gets

    The Murdoch press has aided and abetted

    As have the media organisations Chaired by Stokes and Costello

    Who says this election is “all about Dan Andrews”?

    And who promotes that narrative, relentlessly?

    Who says this election is not about the commitment to health, education and infrastructure – and the social agenda of the government making Victoria more inclusive

    Because there has been commitment to those goals by this government – and they continue

    Look around you for confirmation

    The capital works on infrastructure, on schools and on hospitals

    Who says those requiring to attend the Children’s Hospital at Royal Park, the Joan Kirner Centre in Sunshine or the OJN Centre in Hieldeberg do not appreciate what they encounter – and the staff?

    Who says the removal of level crossings and other works on our roads and rail networks is not appreciated?

    But there are those who say this election is all about 1 man

    Because he is the Leader of the ALP and Premier

    IF the direction of media in regards who we vote for, given the election outcomes in every other jurisdiction in Australia, sees the defeat of the Victorian government on Saturday, what will that say about Victorians?

    Simply, given those results, the LNP has to turn its ship electorally

    Hence what we see in this election

    And playing the man, which is the easy attack line

    Chop off the head and the rest will collapse

    And to add, corrupt is what we see in “The Age” headline referring to a former LNP Federal Minister

  31. Yikes, good to see the right for a different opinion does not exist on this platform!!

    Would personally love to see ALP win with the same amount of seats but Dan to lose. And for the record, I voted informal as I couldn’t vote for the other Guy.

    As for the Dan devotees, it is possible to have a negative view of the man without being a ‘nutter’. Honestly, the hard left are almost as bad as the Trumpists in not being able to see a variety of opinions.

  32. The lib/nats combined primary vote needs to be in front of Labor , for a Labor minority

    If Labor primary vote is equal or in front of the lib/nats , cant see Labor not winning enough seats for a majority

  33. 53-47 looks like it might be around the money, but just can’t see how ALP don’t hold a majority.

    Even if they lost Richmond and Northcote to the Greens, and Hastings, Nepean and Pakenham to the Libs, there still comfortably in a majority. The likes of Box Hill and Ashwood are unlikely to fall and the likes of Glen Waverley and Bayswater (nominal Lib seats) could fall ALP’s way.

    There might be one or two seats like Pascoe Vale, Werribee, Mulgrave, Albert Park that might fall, but it seems unlikely.

    Good money is still on an ALP majority, with 10%+ swings against ALP in western suburbs

  34. And to add

    Look at the attack lines by the Murdoch press in Australia on the NZ Prime Minister – and the relentless nature of them

    Remember that at the last NZ election Harcher and Sheridan were deployed to NZ to publish and campaign against a continuation of a Labor government

    Hatcher from the Costello chaired media organisation and Sheridan from Murdoch

    So more of the same

    Bias and attempts to influence outcomes

  35. I was wondering what effect the 55-45 Morgan poll would have on aeforecasts…

    Answer: Labor’s probability of forming majority or minority govt increases from 90.5 to 92.4%
    LNP probability of forming majority or minority govt falls from 2.1 to 1.4%

    So, where are the ‘Guy’s chance to govern tumbles’* headlines?

    *Given that LNP chance to govern just fell by one third, from 2.1 to 1.4%!

  36. The Age today seems to have eased off its articles critical of Labor and Andrews. They probably realise that at this stage, there is no point flogging a dead horse.

  37. Pi and Grime

    Or the timeless “I’ve voted labour my entire life!”

    I imagine you could have an ‘assisted’ vote if you are three years old and can’t write – but how do you vote when you are eleven months old and can’t speak adequately to communicate your voting choices?

  38. Whats not to like.

    Vic Labor policy.

    Next year 3 and 4 year old kindergarten will be cost free.
    Thats 2,200 dollars. Nothing to sneeze about.

    Also nursing degrees free.

  39. It’s fairly simple for me. As I look down my street, I see the cranes for the new $1.5b Footscray Hospital.
    * It is being built by Dan’s govt.
    * It would never be built by the Libs.
    * The Greens can promise all they want, but they’ll never deliver a project of this scale.

  40. somethinglikethat

    I can tell you that the construction, trades, nursing, teachers, paramedics, and engineering sector are all for Labor.

    They know which side of bread is buttered!

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