Resolve Strategic: 53-47 to Labor in Victoria

After an event-packed three days on the election trail, a new poll shows a substantial narrowing in Labor’s lead.

The Age brings a Resolve Strategic poll (not on the website at the time of posting but in today’s print edition) showing a substantial narrowing since the blowout Labor lead the pollster recorded at the start of the campaign four weeks ago, with Labor and the Coalition tied on 36% of the primary vote, having respectively dropped two and gained five. The Greens are down two to 10%, and where the previous poll had independents on 12% and others on 6%, this one has it the other way round – probably in part reflecting a change in response options following the closure of nominations. This translates to a two-party preferred of 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with 59-41 last time. Daniel Andrews’ lead as preferred premier has narrowed from 49-28 to 48-34. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1000.

Other news from the past three days:

• The election for the Gippsland seat of Narracan will not proceed on Saturday following the death of Nationals candidate Shaun Gilchrist. The death of a candidate between the closure of nominations and polling day results in the election for the seat being declared void and a supplementary election being held at a later time. This last happened in 1999 in the seat of Frankston East, when Liberal-turned-independent Peter McLellan died on the day of the election itself. When the election subsequently produced a hung parliament, great weight was placed on the result of the Frankston East supplementary election four weeks later, at which Labor’s win resolved any doubt that the three independents would use their numbers to depose Jeff Kennett’s government and put Labor in power under Steve Bracks. Narracan is unlikely to prove so decisive, which likely loomed as a contest between the Liberals and the Nationals following the retirement of Liberal incumbent Gary Blackwood.

• Matthew Guy said arch-conservative upper house candidate Renee Heath would not be allowed to join the Liberal party room after 60 Minutes and The Age reported on her involvement with religious conservative political organisations, notwithstanding that her links to the City Builders Church were a matter of considerable controversy when she was preselected for Eastern Victoria region in August. Tim Smith, outgoing Liberal member for Kew and estranged former ally of Guy, said on Twitter that Guy had no such power and described the decision as cultural Marxism. Coming well after the close of nominations, the episode does not affect Heath’s place at the top of the party ticket, from which she is seemingly sure to win election. The Age reported yesterday that Heath had engaged lawyers and was considering a religious discrimination complaint against the party in the Australian Human Rights Commission.

• The Age published a recording on Sunday of a freewheeling political exchange involving Timothy Dragan, Liberal candidate for Narre Warren North, at pre-poll booth last week. The recording finds Dragan describing Liberal front-bencher Brad Battin a “prick”, declaring himself “100 per cent” opposed to an Indigenous treaty on the grounds that “we won this land fair and square”, and saying that if elected he will vote against his own party’s emissions targets.

• Police are investigating Catherine Cumming, independent MLC and candidate for the Angry Victorians party, after she told an anti-lockdown rally outside Flinders Street Station of her ambition “to make Daniel Andrews turn into red mist”. For the benefit of those not sharing her army reserve background, Cumming clarified that this involved, in its milder pink form, blowing the subject up. Cumming now argues that she was in fact referring to the red shirts affair. Noting the positions of Angry Victorians and other micro-party parties of the right on their group voting tickets, Deputy Premier Jacinta Allan accused the Liberals of preferencing “Nazis”, prompting a rebuke from Anti-Defamation Commission chairman Dvir Abramovich.

• The impact of the Liberal Party’s change of preference strategy, in which it will place the Greens ahead of Labor as part of a “put Labor last strategy”, is analysed by Antony Green and Kevin Bonham, the latter focusing specifically on the seat of Pascoe Vale, which Bonham argues is a stronger possibility for the Greens than betting markets suggest.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

560 comments on “Resolve Strategic: 53-47 to Labor in Victoria”

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  1. I do think last week was a particularly rough one for the Labor campaign – this poll was conducted right after the Druery stuff was front page and linked to Labor, but right before all the Libs’ controversies of the last few days.

    I think things will swing back a bit this week after all the preselection scandals. The weekend, especially Sunday, was particularly rough for the Libs.

    At the same time, the Lib primary is really just about the same as where it was in the Redbridge and Newspolls, but I think people having more knowledge of who’s on their ballot now, some of the “other” anti-Dan vote is just coming back to the Libs.

    The 10% (-2) Greens vote is an odd one though and seems like an anomaly.

    48-34 is still a large Preferred Premier lead which doesn’t indicate an appetite for change either.

  2. I’ve been occasionally posted on this Victorian election site, going back a few weeks.
    I’ve no knowledge of Party polls. But have information on The movement in Mulgrave.
    Voters there are not voting on health, education or the outcomes of Party Dirt files. There the vote is about one man – only. Not aware of professional polling. Just aware of a remarkable mood.
    I’ve had one bet that Dan loses his seat. About to have another.
    Hello John Howard.
    But for different reasons, of course.
    They were simply tired of Howard. They increasingly dislike Dan.
    They don’t worry about media coverage. Just payback. And arrogance.

  3. michael (previous thread): “ The Age says Andrews is on the verge of minority government.”

    The mainstream media refrain for months now.

    Rinse and repeat.

  4. Trent: “ 48-34 is still a large Preferred Premier lead which doesn’t indicate an appetite for change either.”

    Actually, it’s a couple of points short of the average margin enjoyed by incumbents.

  5. Oliver Sutton says:
    Tuesday, November 22, 2022 at 6:29 am
    “ The Age says Andrews is on the verge of minority government.”

    The mainstream media refrain for months now.

    Rinse and repeat.
    ———————————–

    Repeat of the federal election , where the corrupt media got it very wrong

  6. Kos Samaras

    @KosSamaras
    ·
    22h
    So the Liberal party need a massive spike in their primary vote to overcome this hurdle. The next 2 public polls will need to show this. The gap needs to be around 5%.

    But it’s even tougher than that.
    —————————————————————–

    The state election not close like the federal election ?

  7. The narrative in The Age is still (correctly) that the Liberals really can’t win, but that Labor may just be reduced to a minority. That’s definitely still the only real possibility. It’ll be interesting to see how that sways late undecided voters. Late movement is often to the incumbent (it even was for Morrison).

    This is an important quote from the article too:

    “Reed said the shift away from Labor was strongest in regional areas, particularly in the state’s east, as well as in outer suburbs in Melbourne’s west, but he added that some Labor-held seats with big margins may absorb heavy swings.”

    In the state’s east, there is really only Morwell (notional Labor), Hastings (notional Labor) and Nepean to lose, along with Pakenham.

    The outer western suburbs are really only limited to Melton, Point Cook and maybe Werribee based on the margins out there.

    But the main thing is that if the 2PP swing statewide is indeed a -4% for Labor, but a lot of that swing is absorbed by much bigger swings those areas, then it means the swings across most of the more competitive seats will be more negligible.

    So I’m not predicting too much of a difference.

    I still think the final result will be around 54-46. Not much change to the Lib primary, a bit of a hit to Labor’s primary, a -3% 2PP swing but mostly absorbed by aress with big margins and few competitive seats.

    I will say, Albert Park looks increasingly unlikely for the Greens if the Lib primary vote is bouncing back a bit, and without Morrison backlash to drive it down. The Greens’ biggest obstacle in that seat is trailing the Liberals by 15%.

  8. @Oliver,”Actually, it’s a couple of points short of the average margin enjoyed by incumbents.”

    Yes I know that…

    I am saying that in conjunction with a comfortable 2PP lead, the Preferred Premier rating still holding up relatively well (for a leader who is supposedly hated) doesn’t indicate an appetite for change.

    Morrison’s Preferred PM lead shrank to about a +1, in conjunction with also trailing the 2PP. That indicated a mood for change.

    I am saying that if Labor’s consistent 2PP lead is also supported by also maintaining an average preferred premier lead, it doesn’t really indicate a widespread mood for change.

  9. I’d not be at all surprised if the result were in the 53-47 range simply based on the fundamentals- 8 year old government coming off a very strong win at the previous election. In 2006 Bracks won a 3rd term with a 2PP of around 54, and this government has been in office in a much more disruptive and unstable environment especially due to the pandemic. The Liberals are probably even more dysfunctional now than they were then, but as the adage goes, oppositions don’t win elections….

  10. Once again, comparing polls in 2018 and now –

    21/11/2018 – YouGov 53/47

    21/11/2018 – Ucomms/ReachTel 54/46 etc

    No poll came close to the end result.

    For a shift such as the one Resolve shows there would be obvious reasons – Dan Andrews is a known quality, so people loved/hated him a month ago as much as they do now; Matthew Guy hasn’t pulled a rabbit masterstroke out of a hat; there hasn’t been a ‘children overboard’ event.

    There may be an element of a ‘shy’ vote – people who were going to vote Teal/independent find they don’t have one to vote for and haven’t quite made the final leap to voting Labor (or committed themselves to going back to the Libs).

    Of course there may be a shift against Labor; I’m simply comparing polls last time to polls now for cautionary reasons!

  11. From north of the border, there seem to be quite a number of things that would pull down Labor’s vote, relative to 2018:
    -8 years in power, that’s quite a long time
    -a leader who is abrasive and confrontational
    -a lack of integrity. I read in some detail the antics of Somyurek and his mates. Disgusting
    -anger over Covid issues, like the incompetent management of hotel quarantine and excessive use of lockdowns
    -chronic problems in the health system (just like NSW!)

    Andrews is lucky the Vic. Liberals seem to be a total clusterf**k of far-right ratbags. I’d guess the Labor primary will drop a fair bit relative to 2018, but will scatter across Green/LNP/Other.

    Labor will still be in power after the election, there is nil chance of an LNP government. But it might be time for Andrews to move on after a year or two, assuming he holds his seat. And hopefully the LNP will also rebuild and become a viable more centrist party with credible candidates.

  12. I do not believe this poll a
    6% swing to the libs their on the ground campaign seems to be shambles. The
    Bookies odds in seats does not match this either. My
    Opinion is Labor is polling slightly better than 2018 in terms of seats this should mean extra seats.
    Seats this sh

  13. I think 2022 could be a low point for Labor (despite still retaining government in some form) and they actually rebound in 2026.

    * Dan is no doubt bleeding votes in some areas, he will no longer be leader so a fresh face could counter any old/tired government factor

    * Many of the issues at the moment are unique to the pandemic environment, so 2026 should return to focusing on the normal agenda that Labor usually thump the Liberals on (especially in this state)

    * Two of the major projects will be complete (Metro Tunnel, West Gate Tunnel)

    * They will have 4 years to try to distance themselves from previous integrity scandals and clean house

    Of course this will be offset by the government being 12 years old, and federal Labor (if re-elected in 2025) being 4 years old.

    But Victoria’s default position now is left/progressive and this 2022 election is really a unique one in that it’s a referendum on an unprecedented couple of years that have been very rough on the government and the state.

    In particular, IF Labor are reduced to a minority on Saturday, I don’t think that improves the Coalition’s chances in 2026, I think it helps Labor like it did in 2002. People will flock to the party most likely to form majority government. And the 4 years of minority government + change of leader could be the “reset” that substitutes for what would normally have been a term in opposition.

    Of course anything could happen amd that could all be wrong, governments winning 4th terms is very rare, but it’s definitely possible that with a new leader and the pandemic issues being further in the past, that Labor support rebounds.

  14. zoomster: “There may be an element of a ‘shy’ vote – people who were going to vote Teal/independent find they don’t have one to vote for and haven’t quite made the final leap to voting Labor …”

    Good point.

  15. There have been 4 polls out in the last 3 days, all with different results;

    LONERGAN: app. 59-41
    ROY MORGAN: 57-43
    FRESHWATER: 56-44
    RESOLVE: 53-47

    Taking on board Redbridge’s 53.5-46.5, Id say a 55-45 TPP is about where it’s at.

  16. It’s not all that long ago that the cookers(apparently Gods foot soldiers?) were out to grab Narracan for themselves,in fact they challenged in 2017 with the sitting Liberal Gary Blackwood very concerned.The seat is seemingly a popular base for Brethren,Mormons and other Pentecostal types who have first dibs on getting into heaven account they paid good money and led blameless lives.
    Apart from some of the cookers later self imploding,they generally moved on and continued planting seeds in the Nats. and Libs. to where we are today.
    Just imagine a scenario where one of them who has directed a lot of money to sand bagging their seat gets to grab the top job as Opposition leader.Now that is a scary thought.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/state-liberal-mp-fends-off-preselection-challenge-by-controversial-prolifer-20170218-gufyow.html

  17. Resolve is a very volatile poll. And there are some pieces of information here that don’t really line up (Greens dropping by 2 points). I would wait until more polls come out later this week to make any deductions about what it all means. At this moment, I’m inclined to believe Resolve’s 59-41 pre-campaign poll was on the high side and this one may be on the low side.

  18. I think Redbridge’s 2PP alone should have been more than 53.5 because of the strange way they distributed the undecideds.

    They calculated the redistributed primaries at 38% a piece translating to a 53.5% Labor 2PP, but based on the “lean of unsures” I think I remember Kevin Bonham calculated it to be ALP 37, LIB 36 with a 55-45 2PP.

    One thing is I think 53-47 will be the low end of the likely 2PP range. I don’t think the Liberals will narrow any further after their horrendous last few days.

    I think about 54-46 is a good prediction.

  19. It is pretty difficult to get a gauge in how well the government will perform. I’m pretty skeptical that the Liberals will improve their vote from 2018, as they’ve a) kept the same failed leader and b) their campaign is significantly worse because they’ve thought their best plan was to cozy up to anyone expressing anti-Dan views, no matter how extreme.

    Coming out of 2018, this is the kind of result you’d probably expect of a 8 year-old government coming from a landslide with a mediocre opposition, though. While anecdotally the ground game for the Teals, and in particular outer suburban independents, seems a lot weaker than May, this final week implosion of the Liberals seems like fertile ground. That their main target is held by the ALP MP who embodies 99% of the things they say a local member should be is going to be a challenge for them.

    I remain pretty skeptical that an independent will even get close in Point Cook or Melton though – battling against incumbency while trying not to lean too far into the nastiness, but using enough of it to get over the line, seems like a big ask. Doesn’t help that there is a lot of “Labor is weak in the outer suburbs” talk seems more anecdotal than backed by any hard data.

    My preferred vote is probably a strong ALP majority, more because the Liberals need to learn the lesson that slipping into outright extremism needs to be held to account, or at least a minority with a reduced Coalition.

    This election is also maybe the first turning point in undoing decades of neoliberal fuckery so would like to see a message sent that Labor can push hard on a big agenda without having to pussy foot around political shibboleths that have hollowed out Labor’s agenda for a long time.

  20. This poll was probably conducted at a $15,000 a head liberal fund raising event, hosted by Kennett and Costello yet Resolve still couldn’t get the Liberals over the line.

    William, did you know Resolve was in the field ?
    Did anyone else ?

    Resolve has a security problem !

  21. @grime

    Be careful conflating “cooker” with “religious fundamentalist”. There’s obviously a bit of overlap, but the conspiracy theorists and the pentecostals are two very different groups in what they’re aiming for.

  22. Will be interesting to see what the estimable Dr Bonham thinks the TPP vote of that Resolve poll is: 53-47 is by respondent-allocated preferences.

  23. I think it says a lot about this election contest, and the state of politics in Victoria more broadly, when a 53-47 poll is seen to be poor for Labor and hopeful for the Libs.

  24. 2018 victorian election Lib/nats combined primary vote 35% = 27 seats The lib/nats claim the teals are targeting candidates in Lib/nats seats and not labor seats If the lib/nats combined primary vote is similar to 2018 and if the teals are targeting Lib/nats seats – the Lib/nats combined primary vote of 36% is going to be a hassle to retain the lib/nats seat ,yet trying to gain seats off Labor

    Labor gets advantage in the 2pp

  25. Poor old Jeremy will be upset he’s not here to add to the forum.

    For those that watch SAD. Slugman reckons he’s already won. Exit pre poll says he’s home.

    You can get ….. Dan $1.10. Slugman $6.20 on betfair Money for jam as the saying goes.

  26. Greens vote probably dropped because AJP is running in every seat. AFAIK Resolve provides replica of ballot paper in their last poll. You also have reason, socialists etc which will eat into Greens primary.

    I am expecting a similar result to Federal election which was 54-46 in Victoria.

    Victorian Resolve sample nailed ALP vote but overshot LNP by 2 points.

  27. Expat @ #NaN Tuesday, November 22nd, 2022 – 7:43 am

    @grime

    Be careful conflating “cooker” with “religious fundamentalist”. There’s obviously a bit of overlap, but the conspiracy theorists and the pentecostals are two very different groups in what they’re aiming for.

    I take your point Expat.
    Maybe we need a generic all encompassing title for cookers,rwnj,religious fundamentalists,happy clappers,fire & brimstone your all going to hell except us bible types.

  28. These numbers look about right, IMO.
    The Greens are paying for bad faith Voice busting.
    Murdoch’s anti-Dan campaign has made some inroads.
    Inflation is high.
    Real wages are low.
    Quite a few people are (a) alive but (b) not all that happy about it since the lockdowns.
    Most Coalition voters have long since become inured to being in bed with religious freaks, crooks, liars and cookers.
    I assume that the numbers will translate into another four years of Andrews Government ruling with a majority of around 5.

  29. “This translates to a two-party preferred of 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with 59-41 last time. Daniel Andrews’ lead as preferred premier has narrowed from 49-28 to 48-34.”…

    Given that the closer we get to the election, the more accurate the opinion polls tend to be, can anybody tell me where do they see that fabled “hung parliament” that the usual Liberal party stormtroopers like so much, and talk so much about?

    It’s clear that the Lobster and his Coalition need a Scomomiracle… Please do tell me, where is the miracle going to come from?

    …. If you visit Melbourne in the future, enjoy the permanent Dan Andrews sculpture that will be soon displayed there: “Victorian premiers are entitled to be memorialised in bronze near Parliament House once they pass 3,000 days in office – a milestone Mr Andrews would hit on February 20.” …. and there is nothing that the usual rabid ALP-haters here can do about it…. 🙂

  30. Alpo
    It is not just the Liberals who are desperately hoping for a hung parliament. It is the entire anti-Labor rabble.
    The Greens’ ‘Same old, same old’ lie exposed, once again.

  31. “Trent says:
    Tuesday, November 22, 2022 at 7:48 am
    I think it says a lot about this election contest, and the state of politics in Victoria more broadly, when a 53-47 poll is seen to be poor for Labor and hopeful for the Libs.”

    Ha, ha, ha… Yes Trent, and it looks so funny too. It sounds almost like: “We are so glad that we aren’t going to be trashed to oblivion…”
    When that’s your definition of “success”, you know that you have truly reached the bottom… How is the Vic Liberal party going to climb back up to relevance?… C’mon guys, help the Libs, I am sure they will appreciate your suggestions.

  32. @Gorks – “Greens vote probably dropped because AJP is running in every seat. AFAIK Resolve provides replica of ballot paper in their last poll. You also have reason, socialists etc which will eat into Greens primary.”

    I think you’re right there, especially with Victorian Socialists.

    There may be a case where in some seats, the Greens primary vote perhaps remains stagnant or even slightly dips, but they still improve their 2CP vs Labor, due to the enormous Victorian Socialists campaign in the northern & western suburbs. There seems to be some genuine momentum that could see them polling in the high single-digits in some seats, which would mostly be at the expense of the Greens’ primary but probably flow back to them via preferences.

    All that said, this is a single poll with a 3% margin of error so when taken in the context of all the other recent polls, it’s probably best to work with ranges and I think we’re still looking at Labor between 36-39% (this poll being on the low end), Liberals between 34-36% (this poll being on the high end), Greens between 10-12% (this poll being the low end), and the 18% “Others” here is most likely on the high end too.

    I think we’re more likely to end up around ALP 38, LIB 35, GRN 12, OTHER 15. That would translate into at least a 54-46 2PP (assuming the ‘Put Labor Last’ campaign results in a slightly stronger than usual ‘Other’ flow to the Libs), but possibly closer to 55-45.

    @Boerwar – “I assume that the numbers will translate into another four years of Andrews Government ruling with a majority of around 5.”

    Totally agree. I would pick Labor’s seat count to wind up somewhere between 48-52 depending on whether they have a better or worse night than expected (so a 5 seat majority being right in the middle of that range).

  33. “Boerwar says:
    Tuesday, November 22, 2022 at 8:32 am
    Alpo
    It is not just the Liberals who are desperately hoping for a hung parliament. It is the entire anti-Labor rabble.
    The Greens’ ‘Same old, same old’ lie exposed, once again.”

    I agree Boerwar. I am truly not sure what’s Bandt strategy. Sitting at the bottom of the ALP table, hoping to feed on some breadcrumbs falling from above doesn’t look like a sign of “great sense of leadership”. At the last federal election, the Greens enjoyed some good results, but I think it was mainly because the ALP had been in opposition for 9 years and therefore there were many question marks that the usual propagandists answered with their own scaremongering about the ALP (the Greens telling that bad-ALP was “dangerously right-wing”; the Libs telling that they were “dangerously left-wing”, etc.). At the next federal election, and after 3 years of Social Democratic reforms the situation is going to be radically different (Paul Bongiorno is comparing the Albo agenda and the pace of reform to a version of Whitlam’s: https://thenewdaily.com.au/opinion/2022/11/22/albanese-government-big-finish-bongiorno/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020221122).

  34. “The impact of the Liberal Party’s change of preference strategy, in which it will place the Greens ahead of Labor as part of a “put Labor last strategy”, is analysed by Antony Green and Kevin Bonham, the latter focusing specifically on the seat of Pascoe Vale, which Bonham argues is a stronger possibility for the Greens than betting markets suggest.”

    Yes, such strategy by the Liberals will definitely increase the chances of the Greens in some seats, at least on paper, as we don’t know how many Liberal voters will preference the Greens ahead of the ALP after having been brainwashed by Liberal propagandists for their entire life, that the Greens are “dangerous Socialists of the Marxist ilk, and that if they get even near the centres of power they will confiscate their property, increase taxes to 90%, and push everybody to a Neolithic lifestyle, etc…” you know the drill.

  35. Trent: “I think it says a lot about this election contest, and the state of politics in Victoria more broadly, when a 53-47 poll is seen to be poor for Labor and hopeful for the Libs.”

    If those numbers were reversed, especially after eight years of government, the front pages of every mast-head would be about the leasership contest at the head of the ALP.

  36. Other than the 5 most likely Greens holds/gains (Prahran, Melbourne, Brunswick, Richmond, Northcote), I think Pascoe Vale would rank as the most likely “outside” chance of a 6th seat.

    It was also the hardest to calculate due to not only the presence of an IND who made the 2CP count last time, but also a significant redistribution. But Kevin Bonham’s analysis on that is excellent and it does appear to be, by far, the smallest gap for the Greens to close out of all the other seats.

    Footscray and Preston I still think are too far out of reach due to the Labor primary vote being around 54%, and the Greens primary vote in both not being all that high. Massive swings would be required on top of the Liberal preferences. They just haven’t put the resources in, and polling isn’t suggesting a large Greens swing.

    Albert Park is the interesting one. Strictly speaking about how competitive the Greens would be in an ALP v GRN count, it would probably be their most likely 6th gain because the Labor primary vote is only 43% to start with, the retiring MP is expected to result in a swing against, and the higher Liberal vote will provide a larger pool of preferences.

    But that higher Liberal vote is the very issue. The Greens are starting from 15% behind the Liberals in Albert Park. That’s a lot to overcome, especially if the Liberal primary vote may have rebounded a bit in the polls and may not plummet a whole lot more than it already did in 2018, and especially with an IND in the mix who might eat into the Greens vote in the north of the seat (South Melbourne area) where she is based, and where the Greens vote is the softest and they are unlikely to match their federal result.

    So I’d predict that while the Greens would probably win an ALP v GRN contest in Albert Park; it’s unlikely to be one. It will remain an ALP v LIB contest, and subsequently an easy (double digit) Labor retain.

  37. Alpo says:
    Tuesday, November 22, 2022 at 8:37 am

    “Trent says:
    Tuesday, November 22, 2022 at 7:48 am
    I think it says a lot about this election contest, and the state of politics in Victoria more broadly, when a 53-47 poll is seen to be poor for Labor and hopeful for the Libs.”

    Ha, ha, ha… Yes Trent, and it looks so funny too. It sounds almost like: “We are so glad that we aren’t going to be trashed to oblivion…”
    When that’s your definition of “success”, you know that you have truly reached the bottom… How is the Vic Liberal party going to climb back up to relevance?… C’mon guys, help the Libs, I am sure they will appreciate your suggestions.
    ____________

    Let’s make a couple of assumptions (just for a moment)…
    1. 53-47 turns out to be the 2PP outcome of the election
    2. The resultant anti-Labor swing of 4.3% is uniform

    The post-2018 pendulum…

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-election_pendulum_for_the_2018_Victorian_state_election

    …suggests Labor would lose 9 or 10 seats (one seat is on 4.29%!) of its current 55 – meaning a narrow Labor majority of 1 or 2.

    But 53-47 isn’t usually a narrow win. Labor won the 07 federal election with 52.70, securing 83 (or just over 55%) of 150 seats. That election was nicknamed the Ruddslide.

    If the Vic result turns out to be 53-47 2PP, there are more likely to be 48-50 Labor seats – a comfortable win.

    So, Alpo and Trent, those who spin a 53-47 poll as some kind of ‘defeat’ for Labor are really in the ranks of the comic genii*!

    *In NSW, the last few ABC 7pm News weatherpersons have used “maximums” as a plural. I am therefore compensating by maximising my use of pluralae ending in vowels. Inspired by a reference in a “Biggles” novel to a group of several German “Albatros” (German spelling) fighters as “Albatri” – I choose genii.

  38. A win is a win whether with a narrow Lower House majority (still by far the most likely outcome) or in minority. A legislative council packed with a crossbench of randoms and cookers courtesy of GVT, and an Opposition that would be willing to play footsies with them to substantially disrupt the government’s agenda in order to sow political mayhem and instability, is a real risk though. The only upside is that it could finally persuade the ALP that GVT has to go (the problem being that the Liberals’ new found commitment to abolish GVT would evaporate in a nanosecond if they perceived it to be in their short term political interests to keep it).

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