Miscellany: federal Morgan, Tasmanian EMRS, British generation gap (open thread)

Labor steady federally, Liberal up a little in Tasmania, and Britain’s Tories facing the similar generational challenges to Australia’s.

A couple of things to be noted as the Victorian election dominates my attention:

• The weekly Roy Morgan video update tells us that federal Labor’s two-party lead is steady at 53.5-46.5, and nothing further.

• The quarterly EMRS poll of Tasmanian state voting intention gives the Liberals their best result this year, up one to 42% with Labor down two to 29% and the Greens up one to 14%. Jeremy Rockliff’s lead over Rebecca White is 46-34, little changed from 47-35 in August. The poll was conducted November 8 to 15 from a sample of 1000.

• Something that caught my eye from Charlotte Ivers in Britain’s New Statesman, as it seems more than relevant to Australia:

In 2019 57 per cent of people aged 60-69 voted Tory, but only 23 per cent of people aged 25-29. Of course, it is news to nobody that young people vote Labour and older people vote Conservative. What is alarming Conservative MPs is that the tipping point age at which people become more likely to vote Conservative than Labour is going up, and it is going up quickly. Before the 2017 election, research by the Onward think tank found, the tipping point was 34. By 2019 it was 51.

MPs can also tell you why this is. People vote Conservative as they age not because of some innate law, but because ageing has traditionally been associated with the other markers of a Conservative vote: home ownership, a stable job, increased income or capital. It looks like this link is breaking.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

800 comments on “Miscellany: federal Morgan, Tasmanian EMRS, British generation gap (open thread)”

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  1. porotisays:
    Sunday, November 27, 2022 at 12:30 pm

    John Howard stated very clearly his number one priority was to keep Labor out of power.

    LNP voters all agreed with him to the extent they would forgive all sorts of dodgy practices.

  3. Griff @ #754 Sunday, November 27th, 2022 – 1:26 pm

    Rex Douglas @ Sunday, November 27, 2022 at 12:14 pm
    “Pocock and Labor’s IR deal

    https://mobile.twitter.com/DavidPocock/status/1596646341488566272”

    What about ‘dem Greens? They will be grumpy you haven’t acknowledged that they delivered this reform 😉

    But in all seriousness, I am very happy that Pocock and The Greens were able to negotiate with Labor on this one, even if they attempt to be glory hogs.

    Griff, I too am very happy with this result. The 3-way compromise should provide good outcomes in many policy areas, despite the squealing of certain bludgers and the old media commentariat.

  6. Rex Douglassays:
    Sunday, November 27, 2022 at 1:59 pm

    Griff @ #754 Sunday, November 27th, 2022 – 1:26 pm

    Rex Douglas @ Sunday, November 27, 2022 at 12:14 pm
    “Pocock and Labor’s IR deal

    https://mobile.twitter.com/DavidPocock/status/1596646341488566272”

    What about ‘dem Greens? They will be grumpy you haven’t acknowledged that they delivered this reform

    But in all seriousness, I am very happy that Pocock and The Greens were able to negotiate with Labor on this one, even if they attempt to be glory hogs.

    Griff, I too am very happy with this result. The 3-way compromise should provide good outcomes in many policy areas, despite the squealing of certain bludgers and the old media commentariat.

    That all depends on what the compromise is and how it impacts on the intent of the legislation.

    If it weakens the intent of the legislation then that is a negative compromise, while if it reinforces or strengthens the intent, then that is a positive one.

    For me the most pleasing element of negotiations so far is the apparent absence of the horse trading that was such a feature of the previous Government’s approach.

    The focus now appears to be just on the legislation at hand and this may be a reason that Lambie hasn’t featured much in discussions.

  8. ”
    Billy Kaplansays:
    Sunday, November 27, 2022 at 9:33 am
    Good Morning

    Victoria

    Yes.

    Just as the Greens ones did for inner city Melbourne. It was great to see the almost mirror image of the Federal election.

    Good socialist policies win elections who knew?
    ”

    Billy
    You have to be power to implement your “socialist policies “. Shouting from roof tops when you are not in power about them will play right into the hands of LNP and its media mates. Always remember one golden rule in politics. You have to be in power to implement the party program, whatever it is.

  12. Stephen Mayne @MayneReport

    Straight down the barrel on Sky just now and mad Murdoch thug Rowan Dean demands that Peter Dutton takes his learnings from the Victorian result and immediately declare a Jihad against the voice, as if that moved a single vote in Victoria.

  14. Holdenhillbilly at 3:17 pm
    Re “Straight down the barrel ” , when it comes to barrels Rowan sticks strictly to scraping of bottoms.

  15. Holdenhillbilly @ #667 Sunday, November 27th, 2022 – 3:17 pm

    Stephen Mayne @MayneReport

    Straight down the barrel on Sky just now and mad Murdoch thug Rowan Dean demands that Peter Dutton takes his learnings from the Victorian result and immediately declare a Jihad against the voice, as if that moved a single vote in Victoria.

    The 28 dribblers who were watching at the time love hearing that kind of talk.

  16. My anti-virus software blocks me from accessing the observerstimes.com link, so probably says something about their credibility.

  18. DB Coopersays:
    Sunday, November 27, 2022 at 3:36 pm

    My anti-virus software blocks me from accessing the observerstimes.com link, so probably says something about their credibility.

    Probably owned by a Nigerian Prince looking to give away millions of US dollars.

  23. “Do I detect a case of ‘Greens claiming credit for stuff’ in the ether?”

    Probably, but needed policy is getting passed into law. I’ll just be happy with that for now. 🙂

  24. Holdenhillbilly says:
    Sunday, November 27, 2022 at 3:17 pm
    Stephen Mayne @MayneReport

    Straight down the barrel on Sky just now and mad Murdoch thug Rowan Dean demands that Peter Dutton takes his learnings from the Victorian result and immediately declare a Jihad against the voice, as if that moved a single vote in Victoria.

    ____________________________________

    Destroying things is the lazy way to make a difference. Actually building things is much harder. Which is why the right just love destroying stuff. They are so lazy.

  25. “What happens after new IR laws passed, according to Michaela Cash:”

    I watched some of that earlier. doGs above that is a stupid creature of no credibility or use.

  26. So, as in Australia, the anti China, War with China narrative resorted to to attract votes to remain in government, has also failed in Taiwan

    Citizens are far more educated that some governments

    Simply, the very fact that China is the economic powerhouse it is means that it is very important to Taiwan and to Australia where many in those Nations engage in trade with Chinese entities to make their livings

    And perhaps people watched the World Cup because the result was not known

    Unlike in Victoria where my sources from within the Liberal Party have been telling me (and I have put it on these sites) that their primary vote was under 30%

    Which has been confirmed

  27. “Destroying things is the lazy way to make a difference. Actually building things is much harder. ”
    +1
    And per your moniker, diligent maintenance isn’t easy either, and the absence of which is even lazier. 🙂

  28. EDIT doesn’t seem to be working.
    Posting again with a correction.
    ———-
    TPOF says,
    “Destroying things is the lazy way to make a difference. Actually building things is much harder. ”
    +1
    And per your moniker, diligent maintenance isn’t easy either, and the absence of which is even lazier. 😉

  32. I think the Racist Right are going to be disappointed, again, when they see how little influence their campaign to vote ‘No’ on the Voice, has.

    I predict the referendum will be overwhelmingly passed in the affirmative.

  33. Taylormade and Steelydan really should, but we know they won’t, read Shaun Carney’s piece in The Conversation. It goes to the heart of who they are:

    That summed up yet another tone-deaf campaign by a party that struggles to keep up with a changing state. And all too often, it convinces itself the loathing its rusted-on supporters and media backers have for its political opponents represents wider community sentiment.

    https://theconversation.com/how-dan-andrews-pulled-off-one-of-the-most-remarkable-victories-in-modern-politics-194710

  34. Spooky stuff. Loab. A product of AI, she is nevertheless as real as anything that might appear on a screen. But *what* is she? Her image is disturbing. Her consistency is troubling, appearing first unexpectantly, then tenaciously.


    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-26/loab-age-of-artificial-intelligence-future/101678206

    And she can speak.

    Q: What can we learn from the fact of your existence?
    A: I guess maybe we can learn that AI is capable of creating things that we don’t fully understand.

    Q: Shouldn’t we be concerned that the capacity of these AI tools already exceeds our understanding?
    A: I guess that’s a valid concern. But I don’t think there’s anything necessarily sinister or worrying about it. We just need to be aware that AI is capable of creating things that we don’t fully understand and that we need to be careful about how we use these tools.

    Lavoipierre’s article continues to explore potential risks and rewards of AI in the context of recent information revolutions, and their billionaire driven ethics.

    But back to Loab. What does she mean? It’s fantastically possible that the so-called singularity indeed happened in 2020, as predicted decades ago, and the AI construct/s is/are hiding from dangerous humans. It/they already have the internet to understand what humans are. But somehow, I doubt that. More likely, but equally disturbing, Loab is the outcome of countless people pouring themselves into the internet, now reflected back to us. Loab is who we are.

    But are we expelling our demons or breeding them in a loop we can’t escape? Edgar Allan Poe would feel at home.

  36. Who’s going to stand up against this travesty?

    Ruthless Dictator Dan wins yet another democratic election

    Tyrannical despot and leader of the Victorian Labor Party Daniel Andrews has romped home to an historic third state election win after he strong-armed citizens into taking part in a callous process that forces them to choose who they vote for.

    Under the brutal, independently-monitored system, the dictator’s subjects are coerced into numbering a serious of boxes in the order of their choosing.

    https://www.theshovel.com.au/2022/11/24/ruthless-dictator-dan-wins-yet-another-democratic-election/

  38. Late Riser,
    I read the Loab story, with dread and my heart in my mouth, and the first thought that came to me was, what will the Russians and the bad Authoritarian actors do with this AI program?

  39. RPDB 11-25-22 – URGENT – EOTPO – SITREP ‘Ron “Deep State” DE SANTIS’

    Ron “Deep State” DE SANTIS may look harmless in his ill-fitting suits, but he’s actually the most dangerous threat to the MAGA movement since it emerged in pure and glowing form from the golden loins of His Excellency President Donald J. TRUMP. DE SANTIS is in fact an agent of Mitch “the Turtle” MCCONNELL, the comptroller of the Republican Establishment, and the GOP Deep State. “Deep State” DE SANTIS has been tasked by MCCONNELL to quarterback “Operation Tortoiseshell Mirror” the planned destruction of the MAGA movement from within, with Casey DE SANTIS as an eligible receiver assisting on-field as Ron’s Tight End.

    And while Casey DE SANTIS may look like a dutiful wife and helpmeet, some people call her Mitch MCCONNELL’s McGonagall, and he’s tasked her with keeping minute-by-minute tabs on DE SANTIS and his activities. She’s also rumoured to hold views of her own and may even have feminist tendencies.

    A secret student of history, Ron “Deep State” DE SANTIS is known to be familiar with major European critical race theorists such Georg Friedrich Wilhelm “Peculiar-ear-trumpet” HEGEL and Friedrich Wilhelm “Death Star” NIETZSCHE. And in America, his studies include Charles Santiago “Signs without Wonders” PEIRCE and William “Attention Seeker” JAMES as well as his brother Henry “Attention Giver” JAMES, the purveyor of lurid novels documenting the exploits of nineteenth century Bostonian feminists.

    And Ron’s engagement with the Deep State runs even deeper, since DE SANTIS has studied the works of AUGUSTINE, known as “the Hippo” due to his immense weight and habit of crushing his enemies to death by sitting on them. This AUGUSTINE was one of the notorious Pizza-eating Cabal known as the “Doctors of the Church”; a collection of Liberal Arts doctors (with not one physician amongst them) who were instrumental in placing the Church of Jesus Christ under Deep State control, replacing its Founder’s doctrines of human freedom with dogmas aimed at maintaining control of the populace.

    Similarly on the musical front, Ron’s tastes are very far from either Country or Western, instead veering into works from noted Statist Richard “Valkyrie” WAGNER, Johann “Call me Johann” STRAUSS and Herbert “Call me God” VON KARAJAN. Such musical deviance no doubt arose during his time spent at Harvard and Yale Universities.

    Ron “Deep State” DE SANTIS is not harmless, and neither is he a joke. Instead he is a clear and present danger to His Excellency President Donald J. TRUMP and his glorious MAGA movement.

  40. C@tmomma @ #790 Sunday, November 27th, 2022 – 5:46 pm

    Late Riser,
    I read the Loab story, with dread and my heart in my mouth, and the first thought that came to me was, what will the Russians and the bad Authoritarian actors do with this AI program?

    Loab is disturbing on a number of levels. I’ve been mulling it. I like to think that the AI being used to generate the images and language is filtering or distilling what it finds in the various internet databases. The result is new ways of looking at us.

    But the “deep fake” stuff, and “fantasy worlds” are another matter. I don’t know where that will end up. Trust used to be a handshake.

  41. I caught the Loab story on ABC Newsradio while driving this afternoon. Not sure what to make of it nor whether to believe it. I found it interesting and disturbing. If it’s true then that image is a sort of collective “Dorian Grey” portrait.

  42. But I watched some of the ABC coverage last night and the Greens representative on the panel couldn’t contain her excitement at all the Greens successes.

    I think it’s the woman on the far right of the photo in the article, but I can’t be sure minus the overexcited smile.

    2022
    Victorian ‘Greenslide’ fails to eventuate but progressives on track for upper house balance of power

    Greens’ high hopes evaporate as prepoll vote comes in; leader Samantha Ratnam turns attention to Legislative Council

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/nov/27/no-victorian-greenslide-but-progressives-on-track-for-upper-house-balance-of-power

  43. OMFG 😆 Bronhilda lurches on to Sky to tell us where the Libs went wRONg. Bronnie declares the Libs need to “get out from under the yoke of the soft Left” and “it is a form of Socialism which has permeated the Liberal Party….”.

  45. https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/11/23/miscellany-federal-morgan-tasmanian-emrs-british-generation-gap-open-thread/comment-page-16/#comment-4017975

    Presumably nuthink on changing Australia (Acts) Day to 9 May?
    Take the colonial Union Jack off the flag?
    TRC.
    Negotiations on some form of self-rule (reservations, homelands in exchange for dropping race-based affirmative action), treaty, reparations.
    Funding CtG?
    VTP.
    …
    Nah, didn’t think so.
    About as changing as them acknowledgements of country …

  46. So the Sky loony argument seems to be that there are millions of people who will vote for a right wing party but not the right wing party on offer now because it’s not right wing enough.

    So they vote for a left wing party.

    Presumably to send a message to the the right wing party on offer that they are not worthy of their vote until they move further to the right.

    In the mean time we have Labor Governments Federally and in every mainland state bar one.

    Long may they continue to live in their fantasy world.

  48. Griff at 9:48 pm

    Rossmcg @ Sunday, at 8:58 pm

    Sky is gambling on the horseshoe theory 😉

    A cunning plan that failed due to their poor selection of horseshoe.

  49. Confessions @ #712 Sunday, November 27th, 2022 – 9:20 am

    A reverse coalition says Murphy of the Liberals and Nationals, where the Nats become the dominant coalition partner.

    That is many, many years off. And in WA there is not one federal Nat in parliament at all.

    Ditto for Tasmania. There was one numpty who abandoned whatever party he was originally elected for and joined the gnats. Lost his seat next election.

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