Miscellany: federal Morgan, Tasmanian EMRS, British generation gap (open thread)

Labor steady federally, Liberal up a little in Tasmania, and Britain’s Tories facing the similar generational challenges to Australia’s.

A couple of things to be noted as the Victorian election dominates my attention:

• The weekly Roy Morgan video update tells us that federal Labor’s two-party lead is steady at 53.5-46.5, and nothing further.

• The quarterly EMRS poll of Tasmanian state voting intention gives the Liberals their best result this year, up one to 42% with Labor down two to 29% and the Greens up one to 14%. Jeremy Rockliff’s lead over Rebecca White is 46-34, little changed from 47-35 in August. The poll was conducted November 8 to 15 from a sample of 1000.

• Something that caught my eye from Charlotte Ivers in Britain’s New Statesman, as it seems more than relevant to Australia:

In 2019 57 per cent of people aged 60-69 voted Tory, but only 23 per cent of people aged 25-29. Of course, it is news to nobody that young people vote Labour and older people vote Conservative. What is alarming Conservative MPs is that the tipping point age at which people become more likely to vote Conservative than Labour is going up, and it is going up quickly. Before the 2017 election, research by the Onward think tank found, the tipping point was 34. By 2019 it was 51.

MPs can also tell you why this is. People vote Conservative as they age not because of some innate law, but because ageing has traditionally been associated with the other markers of a Conservative vote: home ownership, a stable job, increased income or capital. It looks like this link is breaking.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

800 comments on “Miscellany: federal Morgan, Tasmanian EMRS, British generation gap (open thread)”

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  6. C@t

    Thank goodness for the Millennials and Gen Z, who couldn’t give a flying fig for what that execrable man and the simulacra in Murdoch and Costello world have to say

    LOL, someone would have said the same thing about Boomers in days of yore.

  10. A reverse coalition says Murphy of the Liberals and Nationals, where the Nats become the dominant coalition partner.

    That is many, many years off. And in WA there is not one federal Nat in parliament at all.

  11. The Herald Sun journo says SfM has moved on and is no longer interested in politics.

    Bullshit. Scotty will do and go wherever his best interests lie. If that means hanging around in the parliament like a bad smell and making another strike for the leadership, that’s where he’ll go.

  12. I posted this on victorian thread

    —-
    A labor win was never in doubt.

    As previously expressed, there is an anti dan sentiment around the place. All mainly due to the pandemic. It was being fostered via the msm and social media.

    Having said that.

    Most sensible people in the real world appreciated what the vic govt did to protect the public.

    And fully aware that the shortcomings during the pandemic lay at the feet of Morrison and co.

    And as stated, labor had unequivocal support from the construction, trades, engineering, transport, health and education sectors.

    Also policies such as free kindergarten, nursing degrees etc were always going to be a hit.

  13. Good Morning

    Victoria

    Yes.

    Just as the Greens ones did for inner city Melbourne. It was great to see the almost mirror image of the Federal election.

    Good socialist policies win elections who knew?

  15. The Insiders program, the presenter and the merry-go-round of guests are on a spaceship chasing a different planet that no longer exists.
    The old bag is spruiking her book, the red headed bag is spruiking her new less than insightful essay and the middle aged dud is telling us the polling was”right at the time”.
    And I was stupid enough and a big enough galoot to turn on the “claptrap” program in the first place.

  16. Actually, Insiders worth watching just to hear Tony Burke speak on IR.

    Subject of importance to me. I work in Higher Ed, and we have agreements to re-up at the moment. The multi-employer bargaining stuff will be a useful lever. 🙂

  17. Confessions, thanks for posting. It gave me a laugh.

    Wounded Andrews should quit

    Daniel Andrews will treat this victory as vindication of his dictatorial style but in his heart he’ll know he should go before it all catches up with him.

    Bolt appears caught by his magic mirror and can’t turn away.

  18. Scottsays:
    Sunday, November 27, 2022 at 7:46 am

    So far in the elections in the post covid –

    Governments (Labor) who were health over economy re-elected

    Governments (S.A and federal Lib/nats) who were economy over health – lost government

    NSW lib/nats government economy over health and should be next to lose government

    The only problem with this is that the SA Libs weren’t economy over health and were very quick to implement public health measures. 😆

  23. The Guardian blog reports Burke saying that Peacock is ready to support the IR bill.

    IR bill set to pass with support from David Pocock
    Federal minister Tony Burke says the industrial relations bill will pass with support from David Pocock.

    Burke said he is in Canberra where he has been meeting with the senator at 8.30 on Saturday night and is “confident” the bill will pass.

    It hasn’t been an easy negotiation and Senator Pocock has been very clear on a series of principles that he wanted to look at. As you know, he would have preferred that everything was dealt with next year when we said we wanted to make decisions this year. It has involved a very intense process, a lot of meeting, a lot of detail.

    There are effectively three sorts of issues that have come to the fore. One is with respect to small business, the other is low-paid workers, and finally a concern that he has that is outside of my portfolio, but is part of the agreement, that goes to structural issues that we can put in place to deal with people who are went the payment system.

  24. Late Riser @ #719 Sunday, November 27th, 2022 – 9:41 am

    Confessions, thanks for posting. It gave me a laugh.

    Wounded Andrews should quit

    Daniel Andrews will treat this victory as vindication of his dictatorial style but in his heart he’ll know he should go before it all catches up with him.

    Bolt appears caught by his magic mirror and can’t turn away.

    He’s completely irrelevant! As the election result has confirmed are all those Murdoch shills in Victoria.

  26. wasnt it boltand kenit that pushed foor guys return guy all ways seemed a weak leader did not seem very strong yet the right pushed for hi s return lead buy frydenberg now the media including sava triying to rebuild his reputation using her book to atempt his come back to politics well she may be a morrison critick but she completely failed to damage cormann

  27. sava was a costellow staffer and her bos was gaetjones morrisons chief publick servent and she also worked foor howard she is just triying to protend frydenberg is unhappy with morrison to help him win a seat the so called modderit tried to save kevin andrews one of the most conservative mps in menzeys over wolihan backed guy over obrien and is best mates with croger while guy was mentored buy kenit if sava thinks a former advisor to alligzander downer and howard will save the liberals she is rong

  28. ” Bolt appears caught by his magic mirror and can’t turn away.”

    It’s a Palantìr, compelling him to remain under the gaze of the Eye of Rupert.

  31. UK Cartoons:
    Matt on #Strikes

    Andy Davey: Those ambitious Tory MPs don’t want to hang around the back benches for years. They’ve got money to make! “Abandon ship!”

    Chris Riddell on so much for integrity, professionalism and accountability at the top of government

    Graeme Keyes on #TwitterMigration

    Graeme Keyes on #COP27

    Martyn Turner on #PutinWarCriminal

    Peter Brookes on #NicolaSturgeon #DominicRaab #MattHancock #BorisJohnson #LizTruss

    Ben Jennings on #CostOfLivingCrisis #Strikes

  32. Sohar 2022 at 10:19 am
    This one must have been memory holed ‘toot sweet’ . Dastardly Dictator Dan’s victory now a ‘don’t mention the war’ .
    .
    Read the paper as it was printed.

  33. The weirdest TV/Youtube advertisement of the campaign was the “Wake Up With a Dan Andrews Hangover.”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsPksynIANA
    For a party that has all manner of issues revolving around drinking (Davis, Smith, etc) and associations with alleged rape (Bruce Lehrmann) following a night of drinking it was a bizarre commercial. The motif of a young women waking up regretting her decisions yesterday is a strange way to try to target younger voters. Everybody knows what waking up with Dan as leader is like, we’ve done it every day for 8 years.

  38. Gosh, it never seems to take them long, does it ?

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2022/nov/27/australia-news-live-victoria-election-daniel-andrews-labor-anthony-albanese?page=with:block-6382a6ab8f084a383e124ef2#block-6382a6ab8f084a383e124ef2

    Oil and gas industry urges Andrews to embrace gas amid renewables push

    Australia’s oil and gas industry has congratulated Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews on his re-election win but has “urged” a returned Labor government to drill for more gas.

  40. My twitter has nothing on it except people tweeting about what they think Elon will do with twitter and/or attacking all the staff he fired.

  41. steve davis at 11:31 am

    Cant these RW nutters on Sky and MSM realise that Joe Public doesnt want their brand of politics anymore?

    Nope. The immediate response over at Sky After Dark and in general at Sky following the ‘Feather Dustering’ of SfM was to diagnose what went ‘wrong’ was the Libs went too lefty and even a bit ‘woke’* . That what the Coalition needed to do was move to in the other direction big time.
    * True ‘story’, one of the SAD’s did actually use the word woke re where the Libs had ‘drifted’

  42. @C@t:

    “ Could Katherine Murphy not be such a smart aleck!?! It’s not Pattern Bargaining, it’s Multi Employer Bargaining. Sheesh!”

    ______

    It’s actually both. In fact, the ‘pattern bargaining’ phase is actually the most strategically important component of this: a successful union will focus its combined resources in knocking off large players, then the key hard nuts via pattern bargaining, leading to ‘heads of agreements’ that reflect the common claim THEN the union will move to mop up the industry by initiating a formal ‘multi employer’ bargaining claim (but now with the important employers actually backing the claim).

  43. The only Moderate Liberal prepared to stand up and be counted is Bridget Archer. And the only reason she hasn’t had the frighteners put on her is because the Liberals really, really need her and her seat.

  44. And might I say, welcome to the real world Liberals! Whining about working next Saturday? Well, my son had to get up at 4am today, Sunday, to go and wake up, wash, medicate and feed his NDIS client by 6am this morning, and he’s still at work until 3pm this afternoon. So, you can take your privileged whinge and stick it!

  46. From Guy’s statement:

    “The respectable statewide two-party-preferred swing to the Coalition of 3-4% was most profound in the exceptional swings to the Liberal party in Melbourne’s north and west. This represents a huge future electoral opportunity for the Liberal party.”

    This is the problem with the Liberal Party in Victoria and Federally. They are looking for opportunities to get elected, rather than attracting voters with a coherent set of core policies and beliefs that voters would find attractive.

    Put another way, Labor seeks to get elected so it can do things for the country. The Coalition seeks to get elected so it can be in power.

  48. TPOF

    Put another way, Labor seeks to get elected so it can do things for the country. The Coalition seeks to get elected so it can be in power.

    That is what happens when you read George Orwell’s 1984 as an instruction manual rather than a warning.
    .
    .
    Power is not a means; it is an end. One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship. The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power.

    The Party seeks power entirely for its own sake. We are not interested in the good of others; we are interested solely in power, pure power.

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