Miscellany: federal Morgan, Tasmanian EMRS, British generation gap (open thread)

Labor steady federally, Liberal up a little in Tasmania, and Britain’s Tories facing the similar generational challenges to Australia’s.

A couple of things to be noted as the Victorian election dominates my attention:

• The weekly Roy Morgan video update tells us that federal Labor’s two-party lead is steady at 53.5-46.5, and nothing further.

• The quarterly EMRS poll of Tasmanian state voting intention gives the Liberals their best result this year, up one to 42% with Labor down two to 29% and the Greens up one to 14%. Jeremy Rockliff’s lead over Rebecca White is 46-34, little changed from 47-35 in August. The poll was conducted November 8 to 15 from a sample of 1000.

• Something that caught my eye from Charlotte Ivers in Britain’s New Statesman, as it seems more than relevant to Australia:

In 2019 57 per cent of people aged 60-69 voted Tory, but only 23 per cent of people aged 25-29. Of course, it is news to nobody that young people vote Labour and older people vote Conservative. What is alarming Conservative MPs is that the tipping point age at which people become more likely to vote Conservative than Labour is going up, and it is going up quickly. Before the 2017 election, research by the Onward think tank found, the tipping point was 34. By 2019 it was 51.

MPs can also tell you why this is. People vote Conservative as they age not because of some innate law, but because ageing has traditionally been associated with the other markers of a Conservative vote: home ownership, a stable job, increased income or capital. It looks like this link is breaking.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

800 comments on “Miscellany: federal Morgan, Tasmanian EMRS, British generation gap (open thread)”

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  1. Each Saudi player gifted a $500k Rolls Royce by the Prince after their win over Argentina.

    If Australia get through then the sports Minister will give them a $50 K-Mart voucher.

  4. What a wonderful idea…

    “ Up to 200 urban areas have used draft horses in recent years. The most frequent tasks are rubbish collection and horse-drawn carriages taking children to school.

    In the southern town of Vendargues, where the horse-drawn school carts are so popular that waiting lists have been 100 families-long, a study found they had improved the children’s relationship to learning. Some children who could walk or cycle to school preferred travelling by horse-drawn cart, despite it taking longer, because they found it “calming”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/25/france-streets-working-horses-bin-collection-schools

  5. “ What did Kashoggi’s murderers get?”

    Fist bumps from Biden. Important partners in the fight for freedumbs, demarkracy and the American way. Take THAT ChiCommies. Hee Haw!

  6. Rakali says:
    Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 5:20 pm
    What a wonderful idea…

    “ Up to 200 urban areas have used draft horses in recent years. The most frequent tasks are rubbish collection and horse-drawn carriages taking children to school”

    Perhaps sadly, too many are I to draught horses.

  7. Earlwood:

    “ What did Kashoggi’s murderers get?”

    Fist bumps from Biden. Important partners in the fight for freedumbs, demarkracy and the American way. Take THAT ChiCommies. Hee Haw!

    Not really, Mr Biden has been the most active US President in pushing back against the House of Saud

    That’s why the Kingdom refused to raise oil production recently, leading to an extra spike in US inflation that probably determined the US House Majority.

  10. well credlin will not be happy wghen mathew guy losis a seccond election how ever the liberals think its because he was mathew guy not matt if john pasuto does not win horthorn maybi the upper house mp davis may have to move to lower house

  12. Australia is screwed.

    https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/26/2136772/-Australia-is-fucked

    From the article:
    disasters. These weather systems will only amplify its danger as climate change is a threat multiplier affecting our ability to grow food, maintain the world’s economy, the availability of fresh water, and our health, including the lives of wildlife and livestock.

    I confess that I have little hope in humanity dealing with the situation. Green energy is great; if we had transitioned decades ago, we likely would have saved ourselves. That’s not what we did, and record-breaking carbon emissions combined with the carbon required to build our green energy grid is not a hopeful sign for changing our trajectory.

  14. Matthew Guy, in his concession speech, sounds like he wants to go around again! He talked about the rebuilding process after the loss and listening to what the people are telling the Liberals.

    He’s not listening at all. What the people are telling him is that they don’t like him!

  15. The whistles were deafening, drowning out every skerrick of doubt this crowd belonged completely, unconditionally, to Tunisia. A red vortex, a black hole threatening to suck Australia into Group D oblivion. But the Socceroos defied gravity at Al Janoub Stadium, blocked out – or fed off – the horns and hissing and beating drums, to make this must-win match their own and take three points at a World Cup for the first time in 12 years.

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2022/nov/26/mitch-duke-header-downs-tunisia-and-keeps-australia-alive-at-world-cup

  16. Matthew Guy, in his concession speech, sounds like he wants to go around again! He talked about the rebuilding process after the loss and listening to what the people are telling the Liberals.

    He’s not listening at all. What the people are telling him is that they don’t like him!

  20. Morning all. Great result for Labor in Victoria last night. A net gain in seats after two terms in power is outstanding. And as others have said the reputation of media “commentators” who actively campaigned for the Liberals is in tatters.

    I thought the fact that Guy could not bring himself to concede defeat and resign for more than an hour after the result was obvious even to Sky News said it all about his suitability to lead.

  21. Matthew Guy, in his concession speech, sounds like he wants to go around again! He talked about the rebuilding process after the loss and listening to what the people are telling the Liberals.

    He’s not listening at all. What the people are telling him is that they don’t like him!

    I doubt there’s a lack of ambition in the VicLib ranks, so there must be a pile of dirt.

  22. I wanted to mention this article about AUKUS subs, jobs and costs.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/warning-that-nuclear-submarines-could-cost-10b-each-20221124-p5c148

    The article refers to discussion with ASPI and once again talks about a new design (years of delay), costs exceeding $10 billion per sub (3x French price!), no interim sub and a partial build in Adelaide with final assembly in USA.

    It is clear that AUKUS has failed in its original promises. It is inferior to the French contract in terms of cost, capability, avoiding a gap, local employment and even sovereignty in terms of ability to locally maintain.

    Alternative “benefits” in terms of intel, cyber warfare etc are fake. We already have those things from Five Eyes and existing agreements. (This also means there has been no gain in cyber security).

    J’accuse Morrison et Dutton.

  24. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. A rather pathetic compilation today, I’m afraid.

    Want a laugh? Then have a look at the Herald Sun’s Opinion page. Talk about sore losers!
    https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion
    Annika Smethurst didn’t get her hung parliament. Here she sums up Dan Andrews’ thumping victory.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/labor-confident-of-third-term-liberals-still-hoping-for-surprise-result-20221122-p5c0be.html
    Labor easily wins Victorian election, but the Greens could win eight lower house seats, says Adrian Beaumont.
    https://theconversation.com/labor-easily-wins-victorian-election-but-greens-could-win-eight-lower-house-seats-195108
    Paul Sakkal wonders where now for the Victorian Liberal Party.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/struggles-to-gain-ground-in-east-and-south-of-city-make-life-tough-for-liberals-20221122-p5c0bx.html
    The Australian’s John Ferguson writes, “The fracturing of the Liberal vote in Victoria is an enormous issue for the party across Australia. It is hard to see how the Liberals will be able to win in 2026 after such a poor result. There will – and should be – bloodletting in the Liberal Party. The Liberals are on their knees.”
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/victorian-election-2022-crushing-win-for-labor-as-daniel-andrews-brings-liberals-to-their-knees/news-story/45dd231b5b65bf86b1ad16d3f86e97f0
    According to Chip Le Grand, Victoria blocked out the noise and stuck with Labor.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/victoria-blocks-out-the-noise-and-sticks-with-labor-20221126-p5c1i6.html
    “The only defence that we, the people, have against an arrogant leader who is thumbing his nose at our democratic arrangements is by shining a light into dark corners and ensuring that our democracy has the ability to assert the power of those democratic fundamentals”, writes Terrence Mills about the Virginia Bell report on Morrison’s ministry antics.
    https://theaimn.com/democracy-tested/
    Qantas profit estimates just jumped again this week when Alan Joyce threatened to axe regional routes, ramping up pressure on politicians to stop the looming industrial relations reforms. Michael Sainsbury reports.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/qantas-profits-soar-but-little-room-for-better-pay-for-staff/
    Human rights advocates have blasted Australia’s response to Iran’s brutal crackdown on protesters as embarrassing and morally reprehensible.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/puzzled-and-pissed-off-australia-urged-to-do-more-to-punish-iran-20221125-p5c1dy.html
    Piety and prayer loom large in the Exclusive Brethren community, but for the church’s leading family property also makes a big impression. Luxury property at that, judging by the $9.5 million paid this week for a resort-style estate in Dural by Gareth Hales, the son of the church’s global leader Bruce D. Hales. And we financially support these bastards!
    https://www.smh.com.au/property/news/exclusive-brethren-family-pay-9-5-million-for-dural-weekender-20221124-p5c13h.html
    John Bolton, former national security adviser to Donald Trump, has described the former US president’s act as “old and tired” and said the Republican party is ready to move on to a “fresh face”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/nov/26/donald-trump-old-and-tired-john-bolton

    Cartoon Corner

    Peter Broelman

    Matt Golding

    From the US







  25. Thanks BK. After the Victorian election there is an amazing lack of “we were wrong” stories in the many media outlets who attacked Labor throughout the campaign.

    You have to wonder how many voters who are not rusted on Liberal supporters still read or watch Murdoch or Ninefax papers? Should we be monitoring TikTok?

  29. so maybi guy and tasmanian labor leader should both resign he had two goes aand still does not want to resign only thing working in his faver is there is no real option other then obrian as crozier and davis in upper house

  32. I was out last night and got back too late to bother tuning into the news but I can’t believe news outlets are STILL using Michael Kroger in election coverage! He’s hopeless.

  33. So far in the elections in the post covid –

    Governments (Labor) who were health over economy re-elected

    Governments (S.A and federal Lib/nats) who were economy over health – lost government

    NSW lib/nats government economy over health and should be next to lose government

  34. Outgoing Liberal MP Tim Smith predicted last night Matthew Guy would likely resign from the Liberal leadership.

    Asked who might replace him, he said, “I’ve got absolutely no idea … that’s part of the problem.”

  35. Andrew Bolt ”Wounded Andrews should quit
    Daniel Andrews will treat this victory as vindication of his dictatorial style but in his heart he’ll know he should go before it all catches up with him.”

    It wouldn’t occur to Bolt that maybe the lesson might be for the Victorian Liberals – that going Trumpian, getting into bed with the far Right and stirring up hatred – doesn’t work in Victoria. Lie with dogs and all that, resulting in a very bad case of fleas for the Victorian Liberals.


  37. The Hun sounds defeated but fear not, battling on is Andrew “Hiroo Onoda” Bolt…..

    OPINION Andrew Bolt
    Wounded Andrews should quit

  39. https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/11/23/miscellany-federal-morgan-tasmanian-emrs-british-generation-gap-open-thread/comment-page-14/#comment-4017594

    +1

    (Beaumont’s summary last night included a Nine/ FewFacts Resolve Strategic poll reference, biggest concerns were cost of living, health and environment … not “Dictator Dan”.

    Plus see the Daily Kos on flooding rains and drought Australia is f….., the pandemic, GFC, GWOT are going to be a walk in the park compared to >2C and climate change tipping points.

    Canberra certainly seems to be making some progress, be it governance, powershift …
    Though presumably after NSW State Election and 2023/ 2024 Budget more will be done on inequality, such as housing, Wuflu?
    More a la Whitlam, less a la Recession We Had To Have/ KRudd7x7.)

  40. If the Socceroos beat Denmark, they would certainly progress with six points (two wins and a loss to France). France would be on at least six points.
    If the Socceroos draw with Denmark in the final match, once again things would come down to other results. The Socceroos would be on four points.
    Then:
    – If France beat Tunisia, Aus would be through behind France (9), with Denmark on two points, and Tunisia on one.
    – If France and Tunisia draw, Aus would be behind France (7), but ahead of Tunisia (2) and Denmark (2).
    – If Tunisia beat France, Aus would be level with Tunisia (4), behind France (6). Denmark would be eliminated on two points. In this case, it would come down to goal difference (then goals scored, head-to-head records, and so on).
    If the Socceroos lose to Denmark they will be out of the tournament.

  42. Dog’s Brunch @ #680 Sunday, November 27th, 2022 – 8:23 am

    Even the ABC can’t seem to get their head around the idea that some people’s anger doesn’t translate into everybody’s anger. If that were true, Dan would be history, but it isn’t and he isn’t.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-27/victoria-election-2022-result-triumph-dan-andrews/101702934

    Does Patricia Karvelas not see the irony in writing this:

    While the Andrews government has received a substantial swing against it — especially in its western suburbs heartland — the Liberal Party failed to capitalise on it at a time where the dominant media narrative was that Labor was finished.

  44. C@t says,
    Does Patricia Karvelas not see the irony in writing this

    We have a political system where a few (or less) %age points either side of 50% decides an election outcome, so maybe they think just a few angry people can change things?

    Patricia does herself no favours writing like that.

  45. C@tmomma @ Sunday, November 27, 2022 at 8:27 am

    Read further. The irony intensifies. What have they been brewing over at ABC in Melbourne? Perhaps the shift from Elsternwick to Southbank contributed. The environment does affect people. I wonder what will happen over at ABC in Sydney once they shift from Ultimo to Parramatta 🙂

  46. The Australian with some clarity:

    This is a momentous result for Labor and a catastrophic outcome for the Liberal Party.

    Labor’s statewide primary vote has fallen significantly but it has held on in the grumpy western suburbs and made further inroads in the former Liberal heartland in the east.

    The swings that have been largest against the government have occurred in safe seats, chiefly in Melbourne’s west.

  48. Griff and Dog’s Brunch,
    Journos like Patricia Karvelas have deluded themselves for years that what they do is ‘challenge’ the politicians, though, as we have found out about Secret Scott, it always seems to just be Labor politicians that they ‘challenge’. Plus, whenever they have that pointed out to them they come back with an ever lamer justification that because Labor are the party of big ideas they need ‘challenging’ more than the others!

    Well, that’s absolutely the wrong attitude to take to covering politics and so it is no surprise that people are ignoring them in ever greater numbers and instead turning to fearless journalists like Jordan Shanks.

    Finally, I have no words beyond contempt for the flailing attempts by so-called ‘serious journalists’ like Annika Smethurst and Chip le Grand, or the gutter journalism of The Herald Sun and the other Murdoch congealed congeners in other states, for whom no low was too low to stoop to in order to try and besmirch Dan Andrew’s admirable character and fearless leadership.

    All of them need to take a good, long look at themselves.

    But we know they won’t.

    Example #1, Andrew Bolt. Who has already begun the Anti Dan jihad afresh today.

    Thank goodness for the Millennials and Gen Z, who couldn’t give a flying fig for what that execrable man and the simulacra in Murdoch and Costello world have to say.

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