A couple of things to be noted as the Victorian election dominates my attention:
• The weekly Roy Morgan video update tells us that federal Labor’s two-party lead is steady at 53.5-46.5, and nothing further.
• The quarterly EMRS poll of Tasmanian state voting intention gives the Liberals their best result this year, up one to 42% with Labor down two to 29% and the Greens up one to 14%. Jeremy Rockliff’s lead over Rebecca White is 46-34, little changed from 47-35 in August. The poll was conducted November 8 to 15 from a sample of 1000.
• Something that caught my eye from Charlotte Ivers in Britain’s New Statesman, as it seems more than relevant to Australia:
In 2019 57 per cent of people aged 60-69 voted Tory, but only 23 per cent of people aged 25-29. Of course, it is news to nobody that young people vote Labour and older people vote Conservative. What is alarming Conservative MPs is that the tipping point age at which people become more likely to vote Conservative than Labour is going up, and it is going up quickly. Before the 2017 election, research by the Onward think tank found, the tipping point was 34. By 2019 it was 51.
MPs can also tell you why this is. People vote Conservative as they age not because of some innate law, but because ageing has traditionally been associated with the other markers of a Conservative vote: home ownership, a stable job, increased income or capital. It looks like this link is breaking.
#weatheronPB
Totally empty!
Not one tiny bit of cloud.
Blue sky forever.
Thanks BK.
Greg Sheridan, who reckons a race-based voice a dagger to the heart of liberalism, writes, “The proposal for a constitutionally guaranteed, elected, policy advisory chamber to be known as the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander voice to parliament is a direct repudiation of the central tenet of political liberalism, because it strikes against universal citizenship. Further, it gives life to the pernicious idea that universal suffrage, the rule of law and representative, democratic institutions are somehow inherently deficient when dealing with all the variety of human racial, cultural and ethnic diversity.”
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/racebased-voice-a-dagger-to-the-heart-of-liberalism/news-story/4849bcb6296f5109d25b842107b1c241
____________
Here’s the news, Greg: …democratic institutions ARE somehow inherently deficient when dealing with all the variety of human racial, cultural and ethnic diversity.
Democracies have provided for the rule of the majority – which can involve the oppression of minorities. Shall we construct a list for Greggy?
First nations peoples basically everywhere (including Aus)
Various migrant communities basically everywhere
Girls and women – who aren’t even a “minority” but earn less and are on the receiving end of all sorts of violence…
One of my small number of points of agreement with Churchill: democracy is the worst possible form of govt, except for all the others.
Democracy, like market capitalism, needs modifications to address its failings. Equal Employment Opportunity principles being one example; Labor’s (successful) quotas for women in winnable seats being another.
We need a Constitutionally-enshrined Voice to Parliament because of our democratic failure to listen to first nations peoples.
Thank you BK for gathering the scribes.
On Mr Sheridan’s effort:
A great wrong has been done on this country. The Voice is a simple profound gift that will allow us to more easily recognise and face that wrong, to start a slow healing, and eventually to establish a strong, proud, and independent Australian identity. Mr “nothing finer” Sheridan is blind.
Snappy Tom
I wonder if Sheridan has ever attempted to look at this issue through indigenous eyes rather than through the eyes of an old, white, male, Boomer, in the middle-upper socio-economic demographic with pro-Anglo cultural and conservative leanings?
None of these characteristics are a crime of course but together they make for a very compelling framework mitigating against an ability to fully comprehend the history, the argument and its ramifications. In his zero-sum paradigm, there are only victors and the defeated, black and white, no need for compromise. He can’t even contemplate an advisory body.
I think cartoonists are usually pretty amazing at their craft, but that Morrison image by Mark Knight is way off……
Good Morning
Good luck to the progressives in Victoria today.
To all the workers and volunteers that do elections thank you for all you do. I love our democracy that keeps away violence as a political solution.
Have a great day.
Hmm. Albanese is “reasonable to deal with”. There’s a lot packed into those few words. The words “deal with” are bedded in transactional politics and a mindset that won’t be changed. I suggest that a PM who understands that and can work confidently within that limitation, while not accepting its limitation, is a rare thing.
It would seem that Mr Albanese is competent and confident in the job of PM. The rest of the article is a decent summary of the state of play. A journo doing his job? Worth reading.
And the photo of a comfortable Albanese surrounded by powerful women is a wonderful image.
Late riser
Remember when Albanese was hounded by the media for his “gaffes”, portrayed as a man Australians didn’t really know, and most likely wasn’t up to the job?
After he forgot the unemployment number early in the campaign The West Australian lampooned him on its front page for three consecutive days.
The election result proved just how wrong they were. And it’s good to see recognition, even it is only from the likes of Hartcher, that he is indeed up to the job.
32% Labor and Albo know they have to give ground to the Teal and Greens – and they’re doing that.
PB’s Labor partisans are not yet attuned to that.
Cheers bk.
Sheridan is being very selective and superficial.
LOL, he may have a valid point here if the acquisition of the land had been made by just means rather than stolen.
Major conflation.
We’re not talking about “all the variety of human racial, cultural and ethnic diversity.”
We’re talking about the specific situation where Indigenous peoples were dispossessed of their lands without agreement and compensation.
Where in Sheridan’s high minded rhetoric does it say that is an appropriate way of dealing with a new land and its people?
That’s the reason we have these problems, those things that Sheridan clutches at now have been completely ignored for much of European history in Australia when it comes to dealings with the Indigenous population.
Rex Douglas @ #350 Saturday, November 26th, 2022 – 10:42 am
Boo Hoo! Labor supporters still not buying Rex Douglas’ distorted attempted framing. 😐
Rossmcg
Yes. I remember the campaign “gaffes”. I thought then that it was lazy journalism imported from the USA. Trump’s daily gaffes made life easy for journalists. When Biden took over the habit was set. And so, it arrived in Australia, another weed to be fought.
An aside. I wish the PM were known as “Albanese” rather than “Albo”. Though it is a minor irritant, and I can blame the previous PM for the trend.
Did anyone notice that Mark Knight also made PM Albanese look a little bit Hitlerish? 😡
Well if the Vic opinion polls are right I may tune in to Insiders just to hear Speers and Campbell try and explain away their damp squib.
My prediction is that the searing analysis will be: buT my feelpinioNs!
Q: Did anyone notice that Mark Knight also made PM Albanese look a little bit Hitlerish?
Indeed, it didnt go unnoticed…..
To the media Dan and Albo are fascist dictators, but Morrison with his 5 secret ministries isn’t apparently.
Rex Douglassays:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 10:42 am
It’s less about giving ground and more about about a willingness to accept valid arguments.
We have seen that with the consultation around the federal corruption body.
But there were things the Government didn’t accept or thought unnecessary, these were the amendments that failed to get up.
With Campbell on #insiders we can expect some typically outrageous comment meant to ‘air’ some intentional future platform for the IPA/LNP.
All part of the helpful MSM getting the talking points onto a platform.
Mind you, I’ve forgotten what he said last time on the show.
Cat
What a surprise reply.
Seriously this may come as a surprise to the media and some partisans but not to anyone that followed the Gillard Minority government.
There were very good reasons sane Labor strategists backed a fixed carbon price in the climate legislation. No matter how many now say it was a mistake.
I agree there were mistakes made. They were not in making that decision. It was in not being prepared for what was to come despite the previous experience of the mining tax defeat.
Remember I was one that made that same mistake so am not preaching from an holier than thou position.
So Rex is right and it’s to Mr Albanese’s credit that he does take more notice of parliamentary and community representatives than the media.
A point well made in your post about Daniel Andrews today.
guytaur (BillyK),
You are failing to see that Rex Douglas is meaning to imply that Labor are in a position of weakness with ‘only’ 32% PV gained in the election, even though that number has already increased since the election, something Rex Douglas conveniently fails to mention.
Rex Douglas wants the X Bench tail to wag the Albanese government dog. It’s not going to happen. And shouldn’t. The Labor majority government will, and is, consulting with X Benchers in good faith negotiations and accept, or not, their Amendments as they see fit. Which is as it should be.
whiy doesnt sheridon stick to foreign affairs the fact he is writting abbout the voice and a stupid colum claiming andrews is anti cristian because he wants to remove schools right to descriminate must mean labor is doing a good job on foriegn affairs maybi he could tell us about morrisons trashing of instatutions
well sheridon must not be to happy theconservatives in australia have lost the culture wars marige equality desbite the claims that it would distroy religgion and society it got passed 2gb tried to bring gladys down over abortion but it failed the deves stunt on trans gender and now the voice plus asisted duying as well no wonder the reactionary fred nile has retired asthe right lost the culture wars
Aaron newton at 11:33 am
All you have to do to get Sheridan cheering for the voice is to tell him it involves us getting another US base or some eye wateringly large purchase of Mercan weapons.
Cat
I have heard this song sheet from Labor before.
It even got to the point the Greens are a dead political party. Unlike you I see minority governments as a strength no matter which party is in power.
What Labor has to do is get better at being prepared for when minority government’s do happen as it means voters are not happy with the direction the major party has taken.
It’s not weakness to recognise a long term trend of voters and preparing the ground to reflect their wishes.
This is one of the major failures of the media we saw with the carbon price.
According to the media sensible compromise in a minority government was a betrayal of voters.
Labor can and should campaign for strong majority government but just like they are doing as a majority not pretend that listening and responding as a government to the people in this case through parliamentarians representing their communities is a bad thing. It’s a strength not a weakness.
White nationalist won over Trump with flattery and by stoking his ‘pugilistic instincts’: report
Even more information is coming out about Donald Trump’s controversial meeting with white nationalist Nick Fuentes and Ye, the rapper formerly known as Kanye West.
“Advisers to Trump privately acknowledged that the decision to host the Tuesday dinner, just one week after Trump launched his reelection bid, was a significant concern,” The Washington Post reported. “One adviser described it as ‘horrible’ and another as ‘totally awful.'”
A longtime advisor told NBC News it was a “f— nightmare.”
Ye recorded a video saying Trump was “really impressed” with Fuentes and there was a second report Trump said, “I like this guy, he gets me.”
On Friday evening, The Post offered new details on how Fuentes won over the former president, reporting a “person familiar with the dinner said Trump liked Fuentes because he flattered him and encouraged his most pugilistic instincts.”
Trump was condemned by his own ambassador to Israel for dining with “human scum.”
C@tmomma says:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 11:30 am
guytaur (BillyK),
You are failing to see that Rex Douglas is meaning to imply that Labor are in a position of weakness with ‘only’ 32% PV gained in the election, even though that number has already increased since the election, something Rex Douglas conveniently fails to mention.
Rex Douglas wants the X Bench tail to wag the Albanese government dog. It’s not going to happen. And shouldn’t. The Labor majority government will, and is, consulting with X Benchers in good faith negotiations and accept, or not, their Amendments as they see fit. Which is as it should be.
——————————————————————————————-
+1, no further elucidation required.
You do you and your ‘Minority government is a strength’ schtick, guytaur. 😐
I’m not interested.
I suspect a lot of us would recognise this situation. Once you reach a “certain age” it’s inevitable. This body that I inhabit is a bewildering interplay of systems that allow me a huge amount of flexibility, and which automatically compensate for little problems so they can go unnoticed, until they don’t. Then everything “suddenly” plays across everything.
My GP visits have climed steadily from zero, about 10 years ago, to roughly monthly. Nothing serious, but to use an analogy, the tires are worn, the diff is rattling, the brakes are squealing, the windscreen is cracked, and we won’t speak of the leaks. The gauges are being monitored, and new gauges installed.
Recently, I discovered you can make a “long appointment” with a bulk billing GP that lasts for up to 30 minutes. In that setting she (my GP) has time to sit back and listen to the band rather than having to focus sharply on a single instrument.
What is missing though, in this holistic care, is easy access to ancillary health services, such as physiotherapy, dietetics, pediatrics, mental health, and so on, of which I am limited to 5 GP approved Medicare supported visits per year. She can write prescriptions for dozens of medications, but only 5 ancillary services. (A side effect is that they reset January 1, so should you have any unused visits you may as well use them up.)
Aaron newton says:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 11:38 am
well sheridon must not be to happy theconservatives in australia have lost the culture wars marige equality desbite the claims that it would distroy religgion and society it got passed 2gb tried to bring gladys down over abortion but it failed the deves stunt on trans gender and now the voice plus asisted duying as well no wonder the reactionary fred nile has retired asthe right lost the culture wars.
——————————————————————————————-
IMHO Australian political conservatives have often made two mistakes. Firstly they misread the public through an inability to adapt to the natural progression of issues and the public’s changing values. Secondly, they misunderstand battles for wars. By definition therefore, their thinking and planning is short term. They rely only on the public tiring of Labor rather than on creative or innovative policy adaptation, after all their age old policies and culture never change, they must therefore be right. How else to explain Sheridan’s focus on religion in a country that is increasingly secular.
Rex Douglas says:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 10:42 am
Labor have the advantage of being able to give a few tokens to the Apostasy and the Mutiny when it suits them to do so, and to withhold the favours when that suits them too.
The minor fractions need Labor much much more than Labor needs them. Excellent.
Sheridan, Bolt, Abbott, Albrechtson and Bandt: Voice Busters.
Bandt used to support the Statement. Now, he is just another reactionary Buster.
From Peter Hartcher’s article today:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pocock-and-bosses-play-ball-after-wage-scrum-with-pm-20221124-p5c14f.html
Just watching PK replay on ABC 24.. seems determined to persist with Labor minority schtick.. vote narrowing etc. despite real evidence to the contrary.
The Greens can be well satisfied with ABC supporting them.. makes a change from spooking for One Nation.
Senator Penny Wong is the guest on Guardian Australia’s political podcast with Katherine Murphy this week.
In The Courier Mail – hope Putin goes Kaput!
“New concerns have arisen around Vladimir Putin’s health after the Russian leader appeared to wheeze and gasp through a meeting with grieving mums whose children were killed in Ukraine.
Russia’s president – who is reportedly “critically ill” – met with a carefully selected group of parents as he sat down with them to have tea, cakes and fresh berries, the Sun reports.
Mr Putin appeared physically uncomfortable and breathless as he spoke – stopping to clear his throat on multi occasions and struggling with his words.”
“Mr Putin appeared physically uncomfortable and breathless as he spoke – stopping to clear his throat on multi occasions and struggling with his words.”
Polonium in the samovar will do that.
Upnorth
Fake news, he died months ago 🙂
.
.
VLADIMIR PUTIN could already be dead with a body double taking his place, it has sensationally been claimed.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1617641/vladimir-putin-health-dead-mi6-russia-ukraine-war
Billy Kaplan @ #636 Saturday, November 26th, 2022 – 1:22 pm
I need to go for a walk. I read that as “Gardening Australia”. Time out for me.
poroti says:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 3:01 pm
Upnorth
Fake news, he died months ago
中华人民共和国
Hehe. I’m keeping you in mind for post of the day cobber. But with this Mexican Election being held I might hold off some. Bound to be some beauties.
Re what Dog’s Brunch said:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 11:12 am
The 2PP may not be the important stat this election.
It maybe whether the Independents/Greens etc.. take enough seats to influence the lower house.
The upper house however will predictably be a clown show
Just heard an LNP – MHR – whining and whinging about parliament possibly having to sit on a saturday, if required, to complete the Government’s legislative agenda.
Poor dear – fancy having to attend your workplace like a regular salaried person, and on the weekend, too!
Isn’t that what your precious “(non)Work Choices” legislation required of working people?
Can’t wait for next monday when The Government & Greens and others apply to slow garrot to Scotty & co.
I look forward to all the Backbenchers asking the Prime Minister and relevant ministers questions regarding their belief in Ministerial accountability, ethics, integrity and that they can assure the House that he / she is the sole Minister responsible for the administration of that specific portfolio.
Leave the substantial censure motion until the last sitting session.
Do not have the motion heard on the voices. As we did at Federation Council, when a vote was too close to call on the voices or hands, have someone call for a Formal Count – so that ALL Australians will know who supported the disreputable, former PM.
I can imagine Richard Marles, notebook in hand, channeling Evatt, with” What are their names. Write them down?”
Thanks, BK and Alpha Zero.
nath:
In my experience that sort of weird thing is almost invariably a prelude to solicitation for middle-aged group sex…
You’re a man of the world. What’s your experience?
Poroti, maybe he is spending a year dead for tax purposes like Hotblack Desiato
Sunshine. That’s leadership.in action. Now give me millions.
Zwaktyld at 4:00 pm
Well remembered ! 😆
Billy Kaplan @ #636 Saturday, November 26th, 2022 – 11:22 am
Great conversation.
Wong presents such a calm rational voice which is so refreshing after the previous Government’s approach.
Very interesting what she says about the role a small to middle power like Australia can play.
C@tmomma @ 8.09am
Gosh C@t, I didn’t realise that Brazil played Rugby.
Don’t tell the Boks or the All Blacks.
Zwaktyld says:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 4:00 pm
Poroti, maybe he is spending a year dead for tax purposes like Hotblack Desiato
_________________
Well he has got the right name for the band anyhow “Disaster Area”
poroti says:
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 3:01 pm
Upnorth
Fake news, he died months ago
.
.
VLADIMIR PUTIN could already be dead with a body double taking his place, it has sensationally been claimed.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1617641/vladimir-putin-health-dead-mi6-russia-ukraine-war
______________________________
I think someone has watched the movie “Dave” too any times.