The Age brings a Resolve Strategic poll (not on the website at the time of posting but in today’s print edition) showing a substantial narrowing since the blowout Labor lead the pollster recorded at the start of the campaign four weeks ago, with Labor and the Coalition tied on 36% of the primary vote, having respectively dropped two and gained five. The Greens are down two to 10%, and where the previous poll had independents on 12% and others on 6%, this one has it the other way round – probably in part reflecting a change in response options following the closure of nominations. This translates to a two-party preferred of 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with 59-41 last time. Daniel Andrews’ lead as preferred premier has narrowed from 49-28 to 48-34. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1000.
Other news from the past three days:
• The election for the Gippsland seat of Narracan will not proceed on Saturday following the death of Nationals candidate Shaun Gilchrist. The death of a candidate between the closure of nominations and polling day results in the election for the seat being declared void and a supplementary election being held at a later time. This last happened in 1999 in the seat of Frankston East, when Liberal-turned-independent Peter McLellan died on the day of the election itself. When the election subsequently produced a hung parliament, great weight was placed on the result of the Frankston East supplementary election four weeks later, at which Labor’s win resolved any doubt that the three independents would use their numbers to depose Jeff Kennett’s government and put Labor in power under Steve Bracks. Narracan is unlikely to prove so decisive, which likely loomed as a contest between the Liberals and the Nationals following the retirement of Liberal incumbent Gary Blackwood.
• Matthew Guy said arch-conservative upper house candidate Renee Heath would not be allowed to join the Liberal party room after 60 Minutes and The Age reported on her involvement with religious conservative political organisations, notwithstanding that her links to the City Builders Church were a matter of considerable controversy when she was preselected for Eastern Victoria region in August. Tim Smith, outgoing Liberal member for Kew and estranged former ally of Guy, said on Twitter that Guy had no such power and described the decision as cultural Marxism. Coming well after the close of nominations, the episode does not affect Heath’s place at the top of the party ticket, from which she is seemingly sure to win election. The Age reported yesterday that Heath had engaged lawyers and was considering a religious discrimination complaint against the party in the Australian Human Rights Commission.
• The Age published a recording on Sunday of a freewheeling political exchange involving Timothy Dragan, Liberal candidate for Narre Warren North, at pre-poll booth last week. The recording finds Dragan describing Liberal front-bencher Brad Battin a “prick”, declaring himself “100 per cent” opposed to an Indigenous treaty on the grounds that “we won this land fair and square”, and saying that if elected he will vote against his own party’s emissions targets.
• Police are investigating Catherine Cumming, independent MLC and candidate for the Angry Victorians party, after she told an anti-lockdown rally outside Flinders Street Station of her ambition “to make Daniel Andrews turn into red mist”. For the benefit of those not sharing her army reserve background, Cumming clarified that this involved, in its milder pink form, blowing the subject up. Cumming now argues that she was in fact referring to the red shirts affair. Noting the positions of Angry Victorians and other micro-party parties of the right on their group voting tickets, Deputy Premier Jacinta Allan accused the Liberals of preferencing “Nazis”, prompting a rebuke from Anti-Defamation Commission chairman Dvir Abramovich.
• The impact of the Liberal Party’s change of preference strategy, in which it will place the Greens ahead of Labor as part of a “put Labor last strategy”, is analysed by Antony Green and Kevin Bonham, the latter focusing specifically on the seat of Pascoe Vale, which Bonham argues is a stronger possibility for the Greens than betting markets suggest.
The Age headline:
‘ Labor, Coalition neck-and-neck, as gap narrows between Andrews and Guy’
Readers who persist until paragraph 5 learn that the poll’s 2PP is 53 – 47. ‘Neck-and-neck’, eh?
Big question is will we see a similar realignment as in federal election where Labor cops double digit primary vote swings in very safe seats but does well in marginal seat rich eastern suburbs. Since 2018, we had 2 federal elections that shown this realignment.
The Murdoch media which Federal Labor continues to ignore is helping the Libs in Vi ctoria big time. When will they ask why foreign owners can own our media?
This a referendum on Andrews. People either support him or hate him. The net result will be 7-8 seats to Libs, 2 seats to the Greens and Labor remain for one more term.
As much as I would like Labor to win I don’t think Andrews would cope well negotiating with the crossbench for minority government. He seems like a “my way or the highway” kind of guy, similar to Tony Abbott in that respect. In fact, this is Andrews biggest political weakness.
Trent
But Victoria’s default position now is left/progressive and this 2022 election is really a unique one in that it’s a referendum on an unprecedented couple of years that have been very rough on the government and the state.
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Victoria has been a progressive state for decades and if history is any guide there wont be a rebound since there has been a clear pattern of behavior for 50 years of once the government starts losing support it keeps losing support.
The new poll has made the AEF model considerably decline for the ALP since when it was 98% chance of victory, although they’re still obviously extremely favourited. https://www.aeforecasts.com/forecast/2022vic/regular/
The lib/nats combined primary vote 35/36% will not get them near minority or majority government
That Matt/Matthew guy’s leadership career is finish , no matter what
Victoria has been a progressive state for decades and if history is any guide there wont be a rebound since there has been a clear pattern of behavior for 50 years of once the government starts losing support it keeps losing support
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That’s been the pattern in Victorian State politics in recent decades but that doesn’t mean it can’t change. In the era when Victoria was the jewel in the Liberal crown, the Bolte and Hamer governments were repeatedly reelected (8 elections or so) with large majorities and with minimal variation from election to election. Their dominance was reinforced by weighting in favour of rural electorates and the fact that ALP support was concentrated in the northern and western suburbs of Melbourne but they also consistently won substantial 2PP majorities, assisted by the DLP.
Let’s just cut to Saturday already, the last few days aren’t going to change anything now… Especially not seeing as almost a million voters have already voted.
Well independents have to be pleased with this poll, if the ALP primary is sinking that’s a better chance of getting into the TCP.
Jeez, the cookers are going mental on twitter in the lead up to the election.
Emilius van der Lubben says:
Tuesday, November 22, 2022 at 10:33 am
The new poll has made the AEF model considerably decline for the ALP since when it was 98% chance of victory, although they’re still obviously extremely favourited. https://www.aeforecasts.com/forecast/2022vic/regular/
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Resolve seems to have done nothing to increase the probability of a Liberal government though in that forecast. It’s just increased (to around 7%) the chance that no party will have a clear path to government. In that scenario the Narracan special election could become important. Shades of Frankston East in 1999?
@Gorks
I’m with you there. I think the TPP could be 53-47 with little change in the seats won by ALP. I expect 8-12% swings in seats like Niddrie, Sydenham, Laverton, Tarneit, Greenvale and Kalkallo, but it won’t have any impact. At the same time seats that could see a 2-4% swing to ALP include Glen Waverley, Bayswater, Box Hill, Ringwood, Croydon, Warrandyte and Ashwood, which could easily equate to a net gain for ALP.
Niddrie is one seat I’m surprised has got no attention. If people vote the same way in this election as they did federally the margin would be around 3-4%. In fact if all voters voted the same way as they did at the Federal election, Pakenham would become the Libs safest seat!!
Quick! Rush out and gamble responsibly.
Bet your home and kids future on a Guyslide.
@Pi
They’re going to go even more nuts on Saturday. I would urge everyone to vote early just so you don’t have to be near any of them.
Then Sunday they’ll be back making a mess in the CBD.
Federal election was 54-46 in Victoria with identical ALP and LNP primaries of 33. All elections are different but overlaying results would not change many seats.
Max
That’s been the pattern in Victorian State politics in recent decades but that doesn’t mean it can’t change. In the era when Victoria was the jewel in the Liberal crown, the Bolte and Hamer governments were repeatedly reelected (8 elections or so) with large majorities and with minimal variation from election to election. Their dominance was reinforced by weighting in favour of rural electorates and the fact that ALP support was concentrated in the northern and western suburbs of Melbourne but they also consistently won substantial 2PP majorities, assisted by the DLP.
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Records are made to be broken and so patterns can change but its fascinating that Victoria has kept that pattern going for as long as it has.
Sky overnight loudmouth Paul Murray after weeks of bagging Daniel Andrews as the devil incarnate now seems fully resigned to a return of the Labor government. Twice last night he said very emphatically they WILL win. Not that they might – or probably will – they WILL win.
Even he can’t maintain the fiction any longer that the Liberals have a sneaky chance of getting over the line.
max says:
Tuesday, November 22, 2022 at 11:03 am
Emilius van der Lubben says:
Tuesday, November 22, 2022 at 10:33 am
The new poll has made the AEF model considerably decline for the ALP since when it was 98% chance of victory, although they’re still obviously extremely favourited. https://www.aeforecasts.com/forecast/2022vic/regular/
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Resolve seems to have done nothing to increase the probability of a Liberal government though in that forecast. It’s just increased (to around 7%) the chance that no party will have a clear path to government. In that scenario the Narracan special election could become important. Shades of Frankston East in 1999?
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Emilius seems simply to be desperate for Labor not to win. Note that the previous AEF probability for a Labor govt (either majority or minority) was 97.3%; now it’s 90.7%.
1. Going from 97.3% to 90.7% probability of winning is NOT a ‘considerable decline’, Emilius
2. If someone gave me (or anyone else) a 90.7% chance of success, I think I’d be happy to accept!
3. If we really want to live in a dream-world of exaggerated cherry-picking, the new AEF forecast more than QUADRUPLES the probability of some form of Liberal govt – from 0.5% to 2.1%
Despite the best efforts of basically all the major media outlets, the election is most likely to result in a Labor win in the ‘comfortable to convincing’ range.
If you look at the SA and federal elections, the forecast was also showing chance of minority government. It is just doing it’s job of showing a range of possibilities.
Resolve are overpolling the cookers.
The drop in the Green and indie vote in favour of “others” should be a red flag.
As we saw at the 2019 Federal, polling companies have to watch out for the danger of over-representing the politically engaged who are more likely to actually answer polling. In general they did this by correlating political engagement with education levels. However, that doesn’t work for the cookers, who are probably the most engaged and eager-to-tell-you-their-views people in the country.
There has not been a sudden doubling of cookers in Victoria.
Resolve’s final poll at the Federal was pretty good on 2PP but not that great on primaries and there were significant errors at state level which ended up more or less cancelling each other out (Coalition primaries overstated in Vic and NSW, but drastically understated in Qld partly made up for by One Nation being overstated; Greens overstated everywhere cancelling out Labor being understated on 2PP). These errors definitely look like Resolve has an issue over-sampling the motivated.
Between this, the negatives that have come out for the Libs in the past 3 days, and the common late swing back to sitting governments among the undecided, I’m going to nail my colours to the mast that the final numbers from the election will be better for the ALP than the Resolve poll shows.
“simm0888 says:
Tuesday, November 22, 2022 at 10:27 am
As much as I would like Labor to win I don’t think Andrews would cope well negotiating with the crossbench for minority government.”
Ha, ha, ha…. minority government?…. What minority government?
By the way, for those who may be unaware there is a debate between Andrews and Guy on the Sky News channel at 6.30 tonight. Should be interesting.
“Snappy Tom says:
Tuesday, November 22, 2022 at 11:24 am”
Yeah, I bet poor Emilius will be another one who will be “too busy” on election night to come here and face reality… Will he change his nom de plume like another Liberal party stormtrooper seems to have done recently?…
Those guys are truly funny to watch… 🙂
Emilius van der Lubben says:
Tuesday, November 22, 2022 at 10:33 am
The new poll has made the AEF model considerably decline for the ALP since when it was 98% chance of victory, although they’re still obviously extremely favourited.
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“Considerable decline”. Lulz.
On Sunday morning I posted this table:
Today it’s been updated to:
Some people get irate at the prospect of a minority government.
I’m in the seat of Oakleigh and a few of the independents have been very active with letter boxing and corflutes and posters everywhere.
Dominique Murphy is one such candidate (fun fact: I used to work with her in the Defence Department libraries back in the 1990s). Looking at her policies and preferences Dominique appears to all over the shop but given her background (Army reserve, etc) appears to be centre-right. Seems to be in favour of winding back several progressive policies. First preference is to Family First.
I think Steve Dimopoulos the sitting member will get back in. He is popular, works hard and uncontroversial.
Interestingly Virginia Trioli was breathlessly reporting the poll published in The Age along the lines that the ALP will have a minority government. A few pollsters put her in her place. One swallow a summer does not make.
Grant_ExLibris says:
Tuesday, November 22, 2022 at 11:47 am
I’m in the seat of Oakleigh
_________
I remember the time when no one admitted that.
This story is front page in the dead tree version of the Hun. The big thing about the story is who tipped off Druery about the banking RC, remembering it was called (reluctantly) by Morrison and Frydenberg. Surely nobody in the Liberal Party was tipping off people, allowing them to sell their bank shares?
“Emilius van der Lubben says:
Tuesday, November 22, 2022 at 10:33 am
The new poll has made the AEF model considerably decline for the ALP since when it was 98% chance of victory, although they’re still obviously extremely favourited.”
Emilius, thank you, thank you so much, the “hung parliament” is coming, the ALP has dramatically sunk from 98% chance of victory to an abysmal 90.7%… and wait, the Lobster is leading his discombobulated army to a victory with an unassailing probability of….. 2%!!!
Ha, ha, ha….I mean, thanks for the comic relief!!
Apparently there has been a huge increase in early voting – perhaps due to COVID concerns, aggression on polling day or just wanting it out of the way.
I requested a postal vote on the day it was available but still have not received the ballot in the mail.
In terms of early voting and postals – does this usually favour the incumbent or the opposition?
Nath
LOL. Nothing wrong with Oakleigh 🙂
Best place if you like Greek cuisine.
I think they were advertising this a little while ago as involving their usual 100 ‘uncommitted’ voters.
“Interestingly Virginia Trioli was breathlessly reporting the poll published in The Age along the lines that the ALP will have a minority government.”…
Ha, ha, ha …and on election night wait for Virginia Trioli to say: “Don’t blame me if the ALP won, blame the AGE that got it wrong… I’m just a reporter, you know?”…
In fact, they are all clowns!
nathsays:
Tuesday, November 22, 2022 at 11:48 am
Grant_ExLibris says:
Tuesday, November 22, 2022 at 11:47 am
I’m in the seat of Oakleigh
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I remember the time when no one admitted that.
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And nath hung around Fitzroy!
Grant_ExLibris says:
Tuesday, November 22, 2022 at 11:52 am
Nath
LOL. Nothing wrong with Oakleigh
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The Oakleigh Shopping precinct in the early 90s was a dangerous place. I imagine it’s improved a lot but I’m too scared to find out.
I’m really sad that this is such a toxic place to comment. I am a lifelong Greens member and vote for the Labor party at every election. I want the Labor party to win, and think they are certain to based on empirical evidence. I was simply saying that the AEF forecast dipped the rating from 97% to 90%.
I don’t think I’m going to read these comments any more because it makes me feel sad.
Grant_ExLibris @ #80 Tuesday, November 22nd, 2022 – 11:51 am
You can check how your application is going using the link supplied by VEC.
https://onlinepva.vec.vic.gov.au/TrackPVA
Yeah oakleigh was ok growing up there spent the 23 yrs growing up there
East oakleigh primary school then oakleigh high
Worked at the oakleigh junction hotel for a few years ,bottle shop on a Friday and Saturday night learnt where all the parties were on
Great times
Yep, there’s good discussion but this place is toxic af, from what I can tell moderation only happens if you’re too annoying/trolly for the owners.
Emilius van der Lubben says:
Tuesday, November 22, 2022 at 12:25 pm
I’m really sad that this is such a toxic place to comment. I am a lifelong Greens member and vote for the Labor party at every election. I want the Labor party to win, and think they are certain to based on empirical evidence. I was simply saying that the AEF forecast dipped the rating from 97% to 90%.
I don’t think I’m going to read these comments any more because it makes me feel sad.
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I have no problem with a reduction from 97.3% to 90.7% being described as a ‘dip’. Describing such a reduction as a ‘considerable decline’ on the other hand…
Accuracy matters (except to the Right wing).
Premier Matt Guy.
That’s gonna take a bit of getting used to. 😆
@Emilius: “I’m really sad that this is such a toxic place to comment. I am a lifelong Greens member and vote for the Labor party at every election. I want the Labor party to win, and think they are certain to based on empirical evidence. I was simply saying that the AEF forecast dipped the rating from 97% to 90%.”
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I totally understand where you’re coming from and feel the same way sometimes.
I don’t know if it’s just because some posters are on edge due to a history/culture of posts that are legitimately attacking or aggressive, but I find that very often completely innocent posts that are nothing but non-partisan psephological observations seem to get misinterpreted as partisan attacks (or cheerleading) and then elicit really visceral, defensive responses.
Perfect example was yesterday when all I did was make an observation that the Greens oppose GTV especially after losing a swag of LC seats in 2018, and someone just attacked me out of nowhere as if I was either arguing on behalf of the Greens or criticising Labor for something, when I was doing neither. I was simply making an observation about a well known Greens view.
The hostility seems to be drawn along Labor vs Greens lines and I just don’t understand it. I have regularly voted for both in the past. Whichever one I don’t vote for, I always preference second. I support both parties. If I vote Greens, it’s not because I don’t support the Labor government; and if I vote Labor, it’s not because I oppose the Greens. There are some areas where I think Labor do better, other areas where I prefer Greens policy.
Generally I’m happy living in seats where both are competitive, and I’m happy if either of them win, as long as the Liberal doesn’t. I’d be very happy with a majority Labor government, but I’d also be happy with a progressive minority Labor government. Again, as long as the Liberals aren’t elected.
These aren’t sports teams, you don’t have to hate one to like the other, and you don’t have to like every policy of the party you primarily support, but some posters certainly treat it like that. I know it doesn’t help that both parties publicly attack each other, but I understand why because they’re obviously fighting over the same turf. I’m mature enough to understand the strategic reasons behind what both parties say about each other, and don’t hold it against them.
I just wish the supporters of both would cooperate better, and stop misinterpreting impartial observations and then using them to pick fights when people were clearly not even looking for one.
By the way, this comment isn’t directed specifically to anybody or comment about the AE Forecasts topic. It’s just about discussion here in general. I understand when blatantly partisan or attacking comments are met with a partisan or defensive response, but my issue is just when too often, non-partisan comments that are clearly just observation or prediction elicit the same response.
Rant over… Now all the ALP and Greens voters should hug it out and just be glad there’s no clear path for “Matt” Guy and his fanatical fundamentalist Liberal Party to win the election!
Emilius van der Lubben says:
Tuesday, November 22, 2022 at 12:25 pm
I’m really sad that this is such a toxic place to comment. I am a lifelong Greens member and vote for the Labor party at every election. I want the Labor party to win, and think they are certain to based on empirical evidence. I was simply saying that the AEF forecast dipped the rating from 97% to 90%.
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Emilus- your contribution s have been fine. In fact it’s refreshing to have comtributors here who aren’t mindless partisans. On this particular forum there is a set of ALP Uber partisans who will start getting upset at any commentary that could be construed as critical of anything an ALP government does ever, or that could be construed as suggesting that the ALP won’t always and inexorably proceed to ever greater electoral triumphs. I have learned to recognise them and scroll past their contributions as I do for the small clutch of RWNJ partisans. The blog is quite bearable if you do.
@Bystander says:
Tuesday, November 22, 2022 at 11:22 am
Sky overnight loudmouth Paul Murray after weeks of bagging Daniel Andrews as the devil incarnate now seems fully resigned to a return of the Labor government. Twice last night he said very emphatically they WILL win. Not that they might – or probably will – they WILL win.
Even he can’t maintain the fiction any longer that the Liberals have a sneaky chance of getting over the line.
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An interesting change of strategy, maybe they are going to push the labor will win angle and hope for a reverse 1999 effect, after all Kennett was going to bolt it in, everyone said and the polls were going the right way as well – maybe trying to harness the protest vote and push the arrogant, in-the-bag overconfidence. Of course with 4 days to go and a million votes cast already it is a bit too little to late.
What strikes me is the LNP/MSM campaign has been all over the place with no consistent message, the anti-Dan, ohh scary minority Govt, Cookers and Freedum and the grovelling “ohh please give us a go”. I wonder if this should have more of a focus from the start, although a difficult gamble to manipulate the great unwashed and you could end up like the WA libs conceding defeat before the polls opened.
Grant_ExLibris
Dominique Murphy may appear centre-right to you, but she is affiliated with Riccardo Bosi’s AustraliaOne, an unregistered party of absolute nutters. Other members include Monbulk’s Craig Cole, who once threatened to shoot up MPs, Frankston’s Darren Bergwerf who declared himself elected in Dunkley days before the federal election day, and Polwarth’s Denes Borsos who is a suspended doctor.
A state owned SEC backed by superfunds was a really good policy, IMO. Shame that we might be doubling down on expensive fossil fuel gas and fracking under Premier Guy.
The debate on his is usually healthy, recently there have been a couple of people who ‘seem’ to take pleasure in posting to get a response from the labor diehards. It might be that now they feel like every post is a subtle attack and are a little trigger happy in their replies.
I am trying to play nice, I am a labor voter. I have no issues with most of what is posted though the constant claims of a minority govt recycling the same data repeatedly was annoying, coupled with personal attacks doesn’t make for great reading.