The Age brings a Resolve Strategic poll (not on the website at the time of posting but in today’s print edition) showing a substantial narrowing since the blowout Labor lead the pollster recorded at the start of the campaign four weeks ago, with Labor and the Coalition tied on 36% of the primary vote, having respectively dropped two and gained five. The Greens are down two to 10%, and where the previous poll had independents on 12% and others on 6%, this one has it the other way round – probably in part reflecting a change in response options following the closure of nominations. This translates to a two-party preferred of 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with 59-41 last time. Daniel Andrews’ lead as preferred premier has narrowed from 49-28 to 48-34. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1000.
Other news from the past three days:
• The election for the Gippsland seat of Narracan will not proceed on Saturday following the death of Nationals candidate Shaun Gilchrist. The death of a candidate between the closure of nominations and polling day results in the election for the seat being declared void and a supplementary election being held at a later time. This last happened in 1999 in the seat of Frankston East, when Liberal-turned-independent Peter McLellan died on the day of the election itself. When the election subsequently produced a hung parliament, great weight was placed on the result of the Frankston East supplementary election four weeks later, at which Labor’s win resolved any doubt that the three independents would use their numbers to depose Jeff Kennett’s government and put Labor in power under Steve Bracks. Narracan is unlikely to prove so decisive, which likely loomed as a contest between the Liberals and the Nationals following the retirement of Liberal incumbent Gary Blackwood.
• Matthew Guy said arch-conservative upper house candidate Renee Heath would not be allowed to join the Liberal party room after 60 Minutes and The Age reported on her involvement with religious conservative political organisations, notwithstanding that her links to the City Builders Church were a matter of considerable controversy when she was preselected for Eastern Victoria region in August. Tim Smith, outgoing Liberal member for Kew and estranged former ally of Guy, said on Twitter that Guy had no such power and described the decision as cultural Marxism. Coming well after the close of nominations, the episode does not affect Heath’s place at the top of the party ticket, from which she is seemingly sure to win election. The Age reported yesterday that Heath had engaged lawyers and was considering a religious discrimination complaint against the party in the Australian Human Rights Commission.
• The Age published a recording on Sunday of a freewheeling political exchange involving Timothy Dragan, Liberal candidate for Narre Warren North, at pre-poll booth last week. The recording finds Dragan describing Liberal front-bencher Brad Battin a “prick”, declaring himself “100 per cent” opposed to an Indigenous treaty on the grounds that “we won this land fair and square”, and saying that if elected he will vote against his own party’s emissions targets.
• Police are investigating Catherine Cumming, independent MLC and candidate for the Angry Victorians party, after she told an anti-lockdown rally outside Flinders Street Station of her ambition “to make Daniel Andrews turn into red mist”. For the benefit of those not sharing her army reserve background, Cumming clarified that this involved, in its milder pink form, blowing the subject up. Cumming now argues that she was in fact referring to the red shirts affair. Noting the positions of Angry Victorians and other micro-party parties of the right on their group voting tickets, Deputy Premier Jacinta Allan accused the Liberals of preferencing “Nazis”, prompting a rebuke from Anti-Defamation Commission chairman Dvir Abramovich.
• The impact of the Liberal Party’s change of preference strategy, in which it will place the Greens ahead of Labor as part of a “put Labor last strategy”, is analysed by Antony Green and Kevin Bonham, the latter focusing specifically on the seat of Pascoe Vale, which Bonham argues is a stronger possibility for the Greens than betting markets suggest.
On another note, does The Age think people are stupid by constantly referring to their new poll as Labor and the Coalition being “neck-and-neck heading into the election”?
Do they think people don’t understand the difference between a primary vote and a 2PP? 53-47 is not “neck-and-neck”.
Emilius van der Lubben says:
Tuesday, November 22, 2022 at 12:25 pm
I’m really sad that this is such a toxic place to comment. I am a lifelong Greens member and vote for the Labor party at every election. I want the Labor party to win, and think they are certain to based on empirical evidence. I was simply saying that the AEF forecast dipped the rating from 97% to 90%.
I don’t think I’m going to read these comments any more because it makes me feel sad.
—
Sorry mate.
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid – 1258pm
Yes it is maybe a dangerous strategy as shown in WA.
The only time I can remember it being successful was the 1995 ACT election – the Liberals campaigned on a “give Labor a kick up the backside” theme sort of implying Labor was going to win but encouraging voters to punish them ‘a bit’.
Liberals went from 6 seats to 7 and Labor from 8 to 6 in the then 17 seat Assembly, and the Liberals formed a minority government – starting their only period in office in the ACT. Also I would think the first election in Australia where both major party leaders were women.
The narratives being cultivated are interesting
Over the 4 years of this government, the government has not had a majority in the Upper House
So has had to enter into negotiations
Including to pass the Pandemic legislation
The Independents, and particularly the Reason Party, have had the influence they have had
The Liberal Party always oppose – as do certain of the Independents
But the numbers have been negotiated to pass legislation – regardless of the opposition
This is what government is about – because they are there to govern
The narrative is that the government is led by a Dictator who is arrogant
So what would Guy do in government?
Prosecute an agenda – and be labelled by the opposition and media as an arrogant Dictator for doing so?
Post this election you would expect that the government of the day will continue to not have a majority in the Upper House
So who would Guy go to for the numbers?
To the Reason Party – or the Greens?
I think not
Quite frankly, in my opinion, the closest Victoria has had to an arrogant Dictator was Kennett – Guys mentor and role model
There is no doubt the “anti vaxxers” and “anti lock downs” are out there plus there is the “God makes babies” subscribers and they are making plenty of noise, that noise being supported by the Opposition and their media
Which begs the question, if health advice was ignored and National Cabinet vaccination status across States and Territories (supported by modelling which proved very correct) was ignored, what would the outcome have been?
And what would the response of those now complaining have been?
Simply, faced with a Global Pandemic which saw Australia’s borders closed as they were, and certain State borders closed to interrupt the spread, governments governed
And they governed based on the very best of advice which was available
And now certain criticise them for so acting
We will find out on Saturday what the numbers of these hindsight agitators are
As I say, they are there
But having won “freedom” what does the future offer?
In life nothing is for free
Everything has a price
Matthew Guy: our new overlord.
A bit of food for thought
https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/11/22/victorian-liberals-in-ruins/
Mainstream media “insiders” talk about the election being a referendum on Dan Andrews. What we do know is that this election will make or break the credibility and influence of the mainstream media once and for all.
If, and only if, Labor wins in a landslide the mainstream media’s influence and cred will be wholly destroyed. And they won’t take it too kindly let me tell you.
And just to add
Hands up those who enjoyed lock downs?
No one’s hand would go in the air – not one
And that would include the hand of the Premier
Simply, lockdowns were a Global strategy to interrupt the spread of the virus from human being to human being – and in some jurisdictions is still being resorted to
Sometimes things just have to be done
And the community did what it had to do.
It should be a badge of pride that the community adhered to the health advice – despite impositions on people’s lives
Akin to Australians donating in times of National stress due to fire and floods
And hands up those who enjoyed getting jabs with needles
But the very great majority got their jabs
I just view this “freedom” carry on juvenile and uneducated
Perhaps we should go to War with China, and conscript sending those conscripts to their deaths in China
Where would “freedom” sit then?
simm0888 says:
Tuesday, November 22, 2022 at 1:49 pm
Mainstream media “insiders” talk about the election being a referendum on Dan Andrews. What we do know is that this election will make or break the credibility and influence of the mainstream media once and for all.
—————————–
The left has been giving the media far too much credit in recent years.
simm0888says:
Tuesday, November 22, 2022 at 1:49 pm
Mainstream media “insiders” talk about the election being a referendum on Dan Andrews. What we do know is that this election will make or break the credibility and influence of the mainstream media once and for all.
Excellent post
Here we go again @ #104 Tuesday, November 22nd, 2022 – 1:17 pm
Mexicanbeemer says:
Tuesday, November 22, 2022 at 1:49 pm
A bit of food for thought
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I enjoyed the final paragraph –
“Matt Guy could have been part of that. Instead, it’s the boiling pot for him, the true and just fate for all those who commit that gravest of sins in the Melbourne Liberal firmament, drinking red wine with seafood.”
“ On another note, does The Age think people are stupid by constantly referring to their new poll as Labor and the Coalition being “neck-and-neck heading into the election”?
Do they think people don’t understand the difference between a primary vote and a 2PP? 53-47 is not “neck-and-neck”.”
Note the author at the Age. You can take the hack out of Murdoch, but you can’t take the Murdoch ability to misreport polls out of the hack it would seem. Reminiscent of The Australian headlines re narrowing polls federally in 2007 “ Howard Comes Back” based on a slight movement in his negative popularity despite the TPP showing he was on course for what happened.
Mexicanbeemer
Rundle can be a bit over the top, but nevertheless there has been an amazing transformation in the last few decades. The Liberals’ ‘Jewel in the Crown’ Victoria went from 27 years of Liberal rule 1955-1982 to 29/40 years of Labor, including 19 out of the last 23.
Meanwhile Queensland has gone from 32 years of National Party 1957-1989 to now have had 28/33 years of Labor government with just two brief two and three year ‘interregnums’.
And of course another way to look at these two states is that it was the 1950s Labor Split that undid Labor and led to those long exiles.
ps – “interregna” (that is for Snappy Tom – 926am today)
For what it’s worth, my son who was a rusted-on Liberal voter is voting Labor this time. His reaction has been fuelled to some extent by recognising the disgusting degree of bias in the media, respect for Dan and his despair at the state of the party he used to vote for. He is 51.
The media are digging their own grave by alienating their subscribers with putrid quality journalism.
Un-paywalled (funny in itself) in The Australian
Peter Dutton has unloaded on Daniel Andrews, telling his federal colleagues the Victorian Premier “deserves to go” ahead of the state poll.
The Opposition Leader was addressing the Coalition joint party room on Tuesday morning when he wished state Liberal leader Matthew Guy well ahead of Saturday’s election.
Please come to Victoria and campaign, Peter!
Can someone explain the etymology of referring to certain groups of candidates and voters as ‘cookers’ or ‘Cookers’?
Albo was here in melbourne yesterday morning campaigning with Dan Andrews.
Why hasnt Dutton found time to campaign with Matthew Guy.
Tropicalwonderland
Cookers are those who bought into the pandemic conspiracy. The qanon folk.
Basically they are cooked in the head. Cookers.
I’m looking forward to watching this election from here in Queensland.
My bet is somewhere between 54-57 TPP to Labor resulting in a returned Andrews majority.
Next comes the defeat of Perrottet, and QLD Labor returned in 2024.
Red Australia!
Victoria
Looking forward to them protesting, maybe as early as this Sunday, if Labor win the election – with all their usual tropes on display : ‘Dictator Dan’, ‘Scamdemic’, ‘Stolen Election’.
As Donald Trump would tweet – “Sad”.
If, and only if, Labor ends up winning handsomely this Saturday the sulking and looks of despair on the faces of the Insiders host & panel will be priceless to see. Popcorn at the ready just in case.
It could be a bit dangerous for Sky News to be putting Dan up against Guy in a debate on their network tonight.
They have relied on filtering Dan very negatively to their audience through selective editing, misquotes, nasty nicknames and overwhelmingly negative commentary, and those viewers have probably never gone out of their way to actually listen to him first hand.
Tonight they’ll get to see him uncut and unfiltered, articulately offering positive policies, while no doubt completely outperforming his opponent.
Surely some of their less cooked viewers would have to question their opinion of him you would think.
I believe Albo beat Morrison on the Sky News debate (which admittedly was run a lot better than the Nine one too), and Andrews is a much better media performer than Albo, while Guy is nowhere near the salesman Morrison was.
Rocket rocket
The cookers will find a new thing to carry on about. They need to feel important and be part of a community.
Dont know why they cant sign up to volunteer somewhere useful.
From Rundle’s Crikey article:
‘….under the improbably named Marcus Bastiaan (one tries to think of analogues: Kingman Bridgespikes? Lorenzo Tongueslitter?)….’
———————————–
Rundle’s smug, nasty, smarmy, anglophone arrogance is let out for a trot here.
‘TropicalWonderland says:
Tuesday, November 22, 2022 at 2:52 pm
Can someone explain the etymology of referring to certain groups of candidates and voters as ‘cookers’ or ‘Cookers’?’
————————-
I believe that it is a reference to them cooking their own meths.
Alpo says: “Ha, ha, ha …and on election night wait for Virginia Trioli to say: “Don’t blame me if the ALP won, blame the AGE that got it wrong… I’m just a reporter, you know?”…
In fact, they are all clowns!”
Tuesday, November 22, 2022 at 11:54 am
All journalists are clowns? Seriously?
I know of a few cookers who always mention that covid came out of the lab in Wuhan.
And my response always is, so what?
We as a society still need to deal with the virus in the most effective way.
I use the analogy of a deliberately lit bushfire and one that started in nature.
Do we not deal with a deliberately lit fire in the same way?
I never get a straightforward answer.
Hence they are cooked.
Trent says:
Tuesday, November 22, 2022 at 3:15 pm
It could be a bit dangerous for Sky News to be putting Dan up against Guy in a debate on their network tonight.
————-
True, but being Sky, it’s not fanciful to expect that they will have workshopped in advance how best to turn it to Andrews’ detriment. Also opposition leaders commonly over perform in head to head debates as it’s a setting that raises them from the status of obscure carping politician to that of potential Premier. Though opposition leaders can stuff up royally and Guy is known for having a short fuse. If he is only allowed to get tummy rub questions though he might be ok.
Btw Albo met with John Kennedy MP of Hawthorn.
https://twitter.com/DanielAndrewsMP/status/1594566782701867010?t=4Dph17fqyh1grFIIH3cXIA&s=19
From memory, last time they did a head-to-head was a townhall event in Frankston in 2018. Guy didn’t come off well.
Personally I don’t really agree with calling people who have lingering negative feelings against the lockdowns, potentially anti-vax sentiment, or anti-Dan views (they are all separate) as “cookers”. It just shows a sense of contempt for people who think differently to you. It reminds me of when Hillary Clinton called Donald Trump supporters “deplorables”, and I doubt saying that gained her any votes. I think it is better for the political discourse to call them, for instance, conservative minor party voters or anti-lockdown voters.
“Mexicanbeemer says:
Tuesday, November 22, 2022 at 1:55 pm
…The left has been giving the media far too much credit in recent years.”
You could be correct if there wasn’t a virtual pro-Liberal monopoly of the media in this country (especially now that Costello’s 9 network has joined Murdoch in predictably bashing the ALP). Moreover, you don’t need to be “paranoid” to see the broadly anti-ALP stance of various sections of the current ABC. On top of that, the major Progressive news outlet, The Guardian, is far more pro-Greens and pro-Teals than it is pro-Labor.
Somebody, somehow has got to offer a counterweight against such anti-ALP bias… It’s a democratic duty, even more than a “partisan duty”.
Please stop the ridiculous Labor Greens Wars @ #129 Tuesday, November 22nd, 2022 – 3:54 pm
Nah fck that. These cookers hijacked society because they can’t face reality. Fck them.
Please stop the ridiculous ….
Yeah nah. Still gonna call them cookers.
They need to focus their energy in a positive way. I doubt any one of them have saved but one child to date.
They want to believe crap. They can own it.
I have lost all patience.
We all know the world is a corrupt place, but Trump is not their saviour. Quite the opposite.
And do you You mean to say that Hillary Clinton made a material difference to the deplorables not being so. Cos since Trump became President, they have multiplied
The Cookers were direct contributors to unnecessary covid infections, long covid syndrome, and covid deaths by actively opposing vaccination, mask wearing, social distancing and lock downs, as well as by actively disseminating false information about managing Covid infections.
In amongst all this they behaved like vectors who did not mind who they infected.
RR
You left out WA and SA, both of which returned back to back Liberal governments
Playford (until Dunstan), Court
Both SA and WA have consistently returned Labor governments except for periodic one term Liberal governments which implode
The political map of Australia has changed
I doubt Victorians have forgotten Kennett and the damage he inflicted on education and health – or that Baillieu was replaced by Napthine mid term, so a one term government which achieved nothing socially or economically
Boerwar
Spot on. For a while they may have deserved some empathy. Not any more. Stuff them.
They got dewarded.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/nov/22/nine-news-walkley-award-revoked-andrew-laming-investigation
“”Please stop the ridiculous Labor Greens Warssays:
Tuesday, November 22, 2022 at 3:44 pm
Alpo says: “Ha, ha, ha …and on election night wait for Virginia Trioli to say: “Don’t blame me if the ALP won, blame the AGE that got it wrong… I’m just a reporter, you know?”…
In fact, they are all clowns!”
Tuesday, November 22, 2022 at 11:54 am
All journalists are clowns? Seriously?”
All journalists? Of course not, in my post I only mention Trioli and The Age in the context of the silly prediction that is grounded absolutely nowhere. Throwing comments without any substantiation is NOT what a real journalist should do, but a clown is indeed allowed to do so.
Please stop the ridiculous Labor Greens Wars @ #133 Tuesday, November 22nd, 2022 – 3:54 pm
You can call em what you like but their still cookers and deserve nothing less than total contempt.Just like murderers,pedophiles and various assorted religious nut jobs.
Boerwar @ #140 Tuesday, November 22nd, 2022 – 4:03 pm
Did somebody mention Clowns.
@ max
Funny- I had the same thought but dismissed it for fear of being labelled a conspiracist or worse- “a Labor luvvie”.
I guess I’m not alone in being absolutely cynical about anything political that Sky runs. And we have all seen what effect selective editing can attempt to create.
Mind you, only hard- core righties watch Sky political commentary, and with close to a million votes already cast, I reckon it’s a wasted exercise anyway.
Victorian mainstream media very mad about Dan Andrews — stark raving mad
https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/victorian-press-mad-about-dan-andrews–stark-raving-mad-that-is,16995
“Please stop the ridiculous Labor Greens Wars says:
Tuesday, November 22, 2022 at 3:54 pm
Personally I don’t really agree with calling people who have lingering negative feelings against the lockdowns, potentially anti-vax sentiment, or anti-Dan views (they are all separate) as “cookers”. It just shows a sense of contempt for people who think differently to you. It reminds me of when Hillary Clinton called Donald Trump supporters “deplorables””….
Clinton and her “deplorables” is your paradigm of calling other names?… What a buffoon! Now go, and study all the outrageous speeches and various verbal improvisations of Donald Trump calling names and even accusing Hillary Clinton first and then Joe Biden of all sorts of horrible things… He even told Americans that Clinton should go to jail, during the 2016 campaign (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hbh2qXBMjuY)… The fact that you didn’t choose Trump as an example exposes your ridiculous bias. I only agree with you that probably “cookers” shouldn’t be used, but only because it’s too mild a name for those idiots.
“Jaeger says:
Tuesday, November 22, 2022 at 4:15 pm
Victorian mainstream media very mad about Dan Andrews — stark raving mad”
Ha, ha…. Mark David’s cartoons published in Independent Australia are just brilliant!… It’s good that the readers can access an alternative to The Australian’s Johannes Leak.
“Rocket Rocket says:
Tuesday, November 22, 2022 at 2:49 pm
Un-paywalled (funny in itself) in The Australian
Peter Dutton has unloaded on Daniel Andrews, telling his federal colleagues the Victorian Premier “deserves to go” ahead of the state poll.
The Opposition Leader was addressing the Coalition joint party room on Tuesday morning when he wished state Liberal leader Matthew Guy well ahead of Saturday’s election.
Please come to Victoria and campaign, Peter!”
I hope Herr Kartoffelkopf goes to Victoria before Saturday, but I don’t think he will. He is currently sitting on a miserable margin of just 1.7% in his seat of Dickson… One little mistake and… kaput!
Opinion piece by Kennett just showed up in the Herald Sun.
“Last chance to unseat Premier who stole our democracy” is the title.
“If Daniel Andrews is re-elected, he will be emboldened to run an even more secretive, autocratic government and turn on those who dared question his authority.”
Surprise, surprise.
I believe that the significance of this election in relation to the influence of the mainstream media over the result cannot be understated. The extreme level anti-Andrews hysterics of the mainstream media – from prominent sections of the ABC to News Corp – is because they are trying to save their party from potential permanent destruction. This is a no holes barred campaign for the existence of the Liberal Party as a functioning force. The generational momentum for progressive change in this country – via both Labor and the Greens – is picking up pace putting the Liberal Party at real risk of extinction over the next decade. The mainstream media pundits know this and will do everything to save their party. Costello, Murdoch, Stokes, sections of ABC News et al. are not going to sit idly by and watch the Liberal Party unravel. It is do or die for them. This is where we are at.