The Age brings a Resolve Strategic poll (not on the website at the time of posting but in today’s print edition) showing a substantial narrowing since the blowout Labor lead the pollster recorded at the start of the campaign four weeks ago, with Labor and the Coalition tied on 36% of the primary vote, having respectively dropped two and gained five. The Greens are down two to 10%, and where the previous poll had independents on 12% and others on 6%, this one has it the other way round – probably in part reflecting a change in response options following the closure of nominations. This translates to a two-party preferred of 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with 59-41 last time. Daniel Andrews’ lead as preferred premier has narrowed from 49-28 to 48-34. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1000.
Other news from the past three days:
• The election for the Gippsland seat of Narracan will not proceed on Saturday following the death of Nationals candidate Shaun Gilchrist. The death of a candidate between the closure of nominations and polling day results in the election for the seat being declared void and a supplementary election being held at a later time. This last happened in 1999 in the seat of Frankston East, when Liberal-turned-independent Peter McLellan died on the day of the election itself. When the election subsequently produced a hung parliament, great weight was placed on the result of the Frankston East supplementary election four weeks later, at which Labor’s win resolved any doubt that the three independents would use their numbers to depose Jeff Kennett’s government and put Labor in power under Steve Bracks. Narracan is unlikely to prove so decisive, which likely loomed as a contest between the Liberals and the Nationals following the retirement of Liberal incumbent Gary Blackwood.
• Matthew Guy said arch-conservative upper house candidate Renee Heath would not be allowed to join the Liberal party room after 60 Minutes and The Age reported on her involvement with religious conservative political organisations, notwithstanding that her links to the City Builders Church were a matter of considerable controversy when she was preselected for Eastern Victoria region in August. Tim Smith, outgoing Liberal member for Kew and estranged former ally of Guy, said on Twitter that Guy had no such power and described the decision as cultural Marxism. Coming well after the close of nominations, the episode does not affect Heath’s place at the top of the party ticket, from which she is seemingly sure to win election. The Age reported yesterday that Heath had engaged lawyers and was considering a religious discrimination complaint against the party in the Australian Human Rights Commission.
• The Age published a recording on Sunday of a freewheeling political exchange involving Timothy Dragan, Liberal candidate for Narre Warren North, at pre-poll booth last week. The recording finds Dragan describing Liberal front-bencher Brad Battin a “prick”, declaring himself “100 per cent” opposed to an Indigenous treaty on the grounds that “we won this land fair and square”, and saying that if elected he will vote against his own party’s emissions targets.
• Police are investigating Catherine Cumming, independent MLC and candidate for the Angry Victorians party, after she told an anti-lockdown rally outside Flinders Street Station of her ambition “to make Daniel Andrews turn into red mist”. For the benefit of those not sharing her army reserve background, Cumming clarified that this involved, in its milder pink form, blowing the subject up. Cumming now argues that she was in fact referring to the red shirts affair. Noting the positions of Angry Victorians and other micro-party parties of the right on their group voting tickets, Deputy Premier Jacinta Allan accused the Liberals of preferencing “Nazis”, prompting a rebuke from Anti-Defamation Commission chairman Dvir Abramovich.
• The impact of the Liberal Party’s change of preference strategy, in which it will place the Greens ahead of Labor as part of a “put Labor last strategy”, is analysed by Antony Green and Kevin Bonham, the latter focusing specifically on the seat of Pascoe Vale, which Bonham argues is a stronger possibility for the Greens than betting markets suggest.
I’m not from Victoria, so I cannot vote. However, I would vote for Dan just because:
1) Matthew Guy is Scomo without the charm.
2) I want the mainstream media to lose. They think they can control their audiences’ minds and push whatever agenda they want, but I ain’t no puppet on a string.
Re: Age Poll
It is sad to see the standards of both The Age & The Sydney Morning Herald fall to the level expected from Murdoch Press.
Fairfax & Syme editorially, mostly supported the LNP. It was known. It was expected. It was a shock when they openly supported Whitlam in 72 and Hawke in 83. However, under their ownership, the standard and quality of the journalists was high, and their writing was intellectually stimulating and often engrossing.
After, 50 years I still purchase The Herald each day – but miss the high quality of political journalism which used to define this once great newspaper.
In Melbourne, for the 2019 Grand Final, I purchased The Age (for the first time in many years) and couldn’t believe the drop in standard and quality.
Simmo,
The liberal party has been eaten alive. It has been taken over by RWNJs and cookers.
Matt Guy is the presentable face.
They managed to get themselves referred to IBAC by the VEC during an election campaign. Victorians are not stupid (some are…). We are very aware that the newspaper reports and our lived experiences are polar opposites.
You can’t win elections by demonstrating you are a barry Crocker day in day out while screaming “look over there. They’re even worse.” danslide 2, return of the kirkup.
Thanks Trent, for the Laugh of the Day.
BTW. Did Kennet ever go into regional Victoria after he closed down their railways, schools, Police Stations and Government Offices during his tenure?
I guess not. Why would he have to be questioned on decisions he made? After all, he had the AUTHORITY to do so….and could not be questioned…..
Saw 9 news had Neil Mitchell on saying I don’t believe the polls guy a lot closer .
Looked just about in tears when he thought Dan the Man was going to win
Got to give it to Jeff, lets see now, local footy board elections where he i teh Chair retiring after a lot of pressure last year. So as he is retiring he of course has nominated his successor – who chaired a panel to find a suitable candidate earlier this year and which found no-one suitable… then he got recommended (he had nothing to do with said recommendation…) for the position to replace Jeff.
It’s been 20 years sine the Hawthorn Football club had a vote, until last year and a big move by a ‘disenfranchised group of members’ and what happens this year. They nominations open and are closed before they even announce to the public that you could nominate… it was only by luck that some people found out and were able to nominate otherwise it would have been all of Jeff’s successors standing alone, no opposition, no vote needed.
Yep Jeff does know about stealing democracy, sigh.
Gettysburg1863 says:
Tuesday, November 22, 2022 at 4:10 pm
@ max
Funny- I had the same thought but dismissed it for fear of being labelled a conspiracist or worse- “a Labor luvvie”.
I guess I’m not alone in being absolutely cynical about anything political that Sky runs. And we have all seen what effect selective editing can attempt to create.
Mind you, only hard- core righties watch Sky political commentary, and with close to a million votes already cast, I reckon it’s a wasted exercise anyway.
——- ——
I don’t think Sky even pretends to be anything but an advocate for right wing causes so it would not be in the least surprising that they’d prefer a debate that they host to advance the interests of the Liberals. I don’t think that’s all that controversial
Some of the commentary on the hidden agenda of other more mainstream media outlets strikes me as over the top and conspiracy driven. I do think there is a phenomenon though where the Right has been able to push the Overton window in their favoured direction on certain issues. As a result, mainstream media outlets present positions that would previously have been extremist as within the range of reasonable political discourse.
That’s particularly the case with the ABC given that they are politically accountable to observe “balance”, and that for most of the last few decades they have been answerable to conservative Federal politicians with the power of the purse strings.
Is the debate being streamed anywhere for free? Not that it really matters given no-one watches Sky News (unless there is a major blooper from either side).
Last time I seem to recall one of the newspapers livestreamed Sky debate for free.
Whinging about the media is like whinging about the weather.
Thankfully i’m a Bulldogs man, but it would not sit well with me having Kennett as president of the club I barrack for.
Same as Eddie Everywhere and his tenure at Collingwood.
Your not wrong.
The Guardian aren’t exactly down the middle, but others are better at the job. If the Murdoch press is no good at what it does, it should have little impact.
michael: “ If the Murdoch press is no good at what it does ….”
On the evidence of the past few Queensland elections, they aren’t.
I hope Andrews wins in spite of the media, the pile on against him this time is nothing short of bullying, I would expect this from Murdoch and 3AW, but the Age ruining themselves by joining the pack, that is sad for anyone who values independent journalism.
And no doubt Matthew Guy is being put under no scrutiny by the Melbourne media.
Well the debate will be interesting if i can get it, can’t say I have seen much of Guy in action for some time apart from 5sec twitter grabs.
Yes on the Fox news channel in between right Peta Cretin and Andrew Bolt – well at least they are honest with their bias. If it is anything like the federal election forum it should actually be quite watchable.
Planning to record the Sky coverage on Sat just in case there is another unhinged moment after a Labor win. I might even have to give up on the ABC for the election, the Federal coverage as pretty woeful too flashy with no substance and all the red/white and blue, like watch CNN elections.
This seems the way to watch the debate live, starting at 6:30pm.
Try :
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/watch-live-daniel-andrews-and-matthew-guy-face-off-at-sky-newsherald-sun-peoples-forum-and-take-questions-from-undecided-voters/live-coverage/a9fa5a67c33413c8f816175c9ce3cb54
Showing Credlin at the moment (6:06pm)
Hey, michael: respondents to the 2022 Digital News Report (Reuters Institute) rated their trust in The Guardian on a par with the Nine mastheads.
A tad below The Australian, with the Murdoch tabloids at the bottom of the list.
https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/digital-news-report/2022/australia
Well there is no problem Oliver. Everyone believes the Guardian so Labor should kill it if they are of such high quality.
Just read a quality article on the Australian – “the Day Cricket Died” – they are saying only 5000 turned up for Aust v Eng today.
The last two cricket games I went to at the MCG had 82k and 80k and Australia didn’t even play. Only World Cup 20/20 and one dayers seem to work in Australia now. But in the 1980-1990 period, against Viv and Co you would see 60k plus to every one-dayer at the MCG. This is a problem.
Thanks Citizen
michael @ #166 Tuesday, November 22nd, 2022 – 6:19 pm
Yep ,but back then you had balmy weather.Now you’re doing well to reach 12 degree and a strong wind warning with hail.
Maybe it’s my inner cooker but I can’t see Sky News providing Labor any chance to score votes- that includes publishing truthful results from tonight’s debate.
I’m far from a Labor lover but I’ll be dang worried when the Coalition take control on Saturday night.
When?
Well one can certainly say there is a spread in the polls, and next Saturday is going to be interesting.
Have to say for the Box Hill audience, i don’t think it reflects the diversity of the electorate there looks pretty homogeneous.
M Guy on debt, hospitals, not too bad a pretty good message, kinda reminds me of the Brexit Save NHS argument….bit dodgy now M Guy defending the p referencing cookers
nathsays:
Tuesday, November 22, 2022 at 5:40 pm
Whinging about the media is like whinging about the weather.
_____________________
and the standard of AFL umpiring.
Oh the Sky bias is showing – actually asking a question framed by Liberal talking points of bringing vic together- ‘bring Vic together’ point 4 on the blue vote labor last brochure that was in my letterbox last week
michael:
“Just read a quality article on the Australian …”
An oxymoron , surely?
“the Day Cricket Died”
Hmm, now when have I heard that before?
Oh yeah: just about every year of my rather lengthy life.
Congratulations William. I often look at your site without ever commenting. I have two comments. First, my understanding is that this election has about 50% more independents than in 2018. The preference distribution will be crucial. I could be wrong but I assume the pollsters are asking voters for actual preferences, rather than another allocation mechanism. I wonder why pollsters don’t ask a direct question: which main party they will put last, alternatively the order they will place them. It is especially important in this election where the choice for many is between two bad options. For many, it’s the least worst option as I have found in discussions with people . I don’t think the polls are capturing how voters are weighing up the least worst option decision. They may be asking the wrong question: who you will vote for rather than who you won’t vote for.
Second, my sense is that electorates this time will be very heterogeneous., in statistical terms over dispersion. We are likely to see markedly different swings in the outer suburbs from inner suburbs. So why persist with a random sample of 1000-2000, and not poll say 15 seats with a sample size of 200 in each seat. Presumably the parties are doing this, but not the public opinion polls.
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid says:
“Oh the Sky bias is showing “
… and it’s not even ‘after dark’ yet.
Alright, getting interesting, Dan on message, Guy pushing the Health issue, talking points – focus groups must be saying Health
Of the 4 qtns so far, Debt, Debt, Cookers, slow covid recovery or a dig at loackdowns. Yet another given to Guy to spruik his $2 fares (but not for us regional bods).
Dan again on PT, infrastructure and development – I do wonder if that message is coming across a bit too ‘big picture’ compared to the short-term outlook for, say, Health post Covid.
Dr Fumbles McStupid, I don’t think Sky News does diversity. To be fair, I’ve noticed televised political debate audiences tend to have this problem, regardless of whoever is running them.
@SP says:
Tuesday, November 22, 2022 at 6:56 pm
Dr Fumbles McStupid, I don’t think Sky News does diversity. To be fair, I’ve noticed televised political debate audiences tend to have this problem, regardless of whoever is running them.
___________________
Have to agree, but the audience selection for the Fed ones was a little better, this is very noticeable, old, white, miserable or perhaps this is all that has been engaged in a pretty lifeless campaign so far.
Observation, Andrews comes across as in control, confident but almost arrogant, Guy looks like he has had a valium before the debate but fires up ok and stays on point. But fellas, why the 5 0’clock shadow, looks so scruffy, especially of Guy with the tie and all, Andrews OK as it looks like he has made the effort to ‘loosen up’ with no tie.
Andrews only comes across as arrogant to some because he has so much to boast about.
“Andrews comes across as in control, confident but almost arrogant, Guy looks like he has had a valium before the debate …”
In the Nixon vs Kennedy debate, JFK looked cool, calm and collected.
Legend has it that his minders arranged some, er, horizontal refreshment beforehand.
Ohh Guy on potholes, in regional Vic to counter Dans $9 Vline fares, so they have recognised Victoria is more than just Melbourne, Guy mentioned St Albans three times so they are keen on Ripon.
Ohhh almost an argument on Fracking, but just a wet lettuce slap from each, this is such a ‘nice’ debate, perhaps too nice.
Also the visuals don’t do anything for Guy, Andrews is side on to the camera, all Insta style, Guy full face on like a stunned mullet. Where are the ‘image consultants’
@Oliver Sutton says:
Tuesday, November 22, 2022 at 7:08 pm
“Andrews comes across as in control, confident but almost arrogant, Guy looks like he has had a valium before the debate …”
In the Nixon vs Kennedy debate, JFK looked cool, calm and collected.
Legend has it that his minders arranged some, er, horizontal refreshment beforehand.
_______________________
That was a classic that set the importance of image and TV appearance and was the first time it was done – it didn’t help that Nixon had a terrible flu at the debate and the swaying, sweating image was not very trustworthy.
A question on candidate vetting and the RWNJs in the LNP, good it resonates even if it was from Mr Mullett
Climate change qtn so one for the Govt
Guy has been travelling around Vic via the road to Damascus according to the LNP commitment to climate change
Oliver Sutton
You should follow baseball in the USA – ‘the death of baseball’ has been a staple in the media for close on a century!
Having said that – I do think baseball has some major problems. There is a current theory that ‘sabermetrics’ (as in the film Moneyball – clever analysis of every single element of the game) has actually harmed the game
Dr FM
Hadn’t Nixon also just arrived back from Alaska (even though he was sick) because he promised he’d campaign in all 50 states?
I think a poll of radio listeners gave the debate to Nixon, while TV viewers gave it easily to the young looking ‘relaxed’ (?) JFK
@Rocket Rocket
Yes absolutely, the radio had Nixon, TV JFK, all about visuals and image something that has shaped campaigns ever since
And JFK’s minders got him in a dark suit against the light background, while Nixon had a lighter suit.
When Dan said these greedy companies my heart skipped a beat, I thought he was about to use a different c word to companies….
Alright, was decent so far but Guy was being a dick on health, going populist and the ‘listening premier’ – unite us? What with the feedumers and the cookers? Will be interesting anyway. As a late poster said ‘fascinating election’
@Rocket Rocket
The magic of B and W TV , the democrat campaign was really the textbook play on how to image a campaign with elements that have been repeated by Gough and even Abbott
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ #196 Tuesday, November 22nd, 2022 – 7:33 pm
So that’s Sky debate and after Bolt immediately launches into a scathing slash at Dan for being a complete arsehole during covid..
My vote, Dan way out in front with the facts.
Well this is a turn up, I was trying to be impartial on the debate but FFS
Having the unfortunate experience of watching Bolt on the analysis and M Guy is being torn to shreds, a total fail even Andrews is control but I cant sully my TV with the excretiable Bernie Finn talking up a minority Govt
Well I guess the mordor media have said ‘computer says no’ to the leader
“nath says:
Tuesday, November 22, 2022 at 5:40 pm
Whinging about the media is like whinging about the weather.”
We can do very little about the weather, apart from taking shelter… With the media, on the other hand, we can introduce (or re-introduce) some regulations, apart from not buying them.