Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor in Victoria

Various happenings from the first official week of the Victorian state election campaign.

Three weeks out from the election, The Australian today has a Newspoll state poll for Victoria showing Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, in from 56-44 at the last such poll in August. Labor and the Coalition are tied at 37% on the primary vote, respectively down four and up one, with the Greens steady on 13%. Daniel Andrews is down three on approval to 51% and up three on disapproval to 44%, while Matthew Guy is respectively steady on 32% and up three to 52%. Daniel Andrews leads 52-33 on preferred premier, little changed from 51-34 last time. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1007.

The formal campaign period began with the issuing of the writs on Tuesday: enrolments close next Tuesday; nominations close on Friday (a day earlier for those endorsed by registered parties), with ballot paper draws to follow immediately after; early voting begins the following Monday, November 14; and the big day is November 26. Registration of parties closed last week, so the full list of eligible parties is here. My election guide is here – I hope for the Legislative Council guide to be added to it at some point over the weekend.

Further developments:

• There was a late retirement last week from Jaala Pulford, who holds a Legislative Council seat for Labor in Western Victoria region and was seat to lead the party’s ticket. There has been no specific reporting on what this might mean for the party ticket, but the Herald Sun reported Pulford’s place was likely to be taken by a female candidate of the Right, and in particular to one associated with Richard Marles.

• A report in the Herald Sun on October 13 noted discontent in some Labor quarters that recent spending commitments have focused on Melbourne’s outer east and south-east and have ignored the north and west. Those pushing the story expressed concern over Melton, Werribee, Point Cook, South Barwon, Bellarine and Yan Yean. In a similar vein, a report from Rachel Baxendale in The Australian on Wednesday cited unidentified Labor sources complaining that the northern and south-western corridors, which “probably need an additional new hospital each”, were being neglected to indulge Brunswick, where eight level crossings are being removed, and Bayswater, which has been targeted with commitments including a $60 million train station.

• Another Labor source, or possibly the same one, has briefed Kieran Rooney of the Herald Sun on preference negotiations with the Greens which would “sell out” the party’s own upper house members and “allies”, the latter seemingly referring to micro-party cross-benchers. Presumably the concern is that Labor’s own lower order candidates would be endangered if the party dealt itself out of negotiations with micro-parties for the sake of a deal with the Greens, the quid pro quo for which would be the Greens direct preferences to Labor in lower house seats. The report also speaks of “internal angst about the idea of preferencing the party in regional areas with coal and logging industries”.

• The contest for the outer western Melbourne seat of Melton is proving a source of particular fascination for the media, with a profile on the seat appearing in the Sunday Age and Virginia Trioli hosting a candidates’ forum on ABC Radio yesterday. The seat has traditionally been safe for Labor, but it dramatically bucked the trend at the 2018 election in recording a 6.9% two-party swing to the Liberals as voters abandoned both major parties for a huge field of independent and minor party contenders. Infrastructure has not kept up with growth in the area, and there is particular bitterness locally on lack of progress for a promised hospital. The strongest performing of the independents, Florey Institute brain scientist Ian Birchall, is again taking the field at this election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

201 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor in Victoria”

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  1. The latest polling indicates Labor will be returned in some form or another.
    It also leaves open the question as to how the Libs and Greens will emerge after the “teal” infusion plays out in this Victorian election as it did in the Federal election.
    The media are perhaps not as clever as they like to portray themselves.
    Who’s have thought!

  2. 54/46. Surprised 37 percent could stomach giving Guy and the Liberals first preference. Thought many of them would park their vote with Independents and minors before preferencing Libs above Labor. Methinks the only poll that matters will come in 52/48 for a minority Labor government. Trent, you notice l got the Newspoll right. Dr John, how Labor looking in Brighton? My minority Labor bet @12.0 looking good Dr John. Dr John, if you don’t want a Liberal member(or maybe even government) it’s in your best interests to vote strategically and put the independent above Liberal when casting your vote. 54/46, I’m in the money.

  3. It’s currently approximately 5am and the betting markets haven’t really changed. Get your bets on before the markets catch up with the polls. Money to be made.

  4. Dr John, probably a good idea you don’t bet considering you think Labor will win Brighton. Vote strategically Dr John and put the independent above Labor in Brighton, otherwise you might end up with a liberal member and maybe even a liberal government. You’re welcome for the help Dr John.

  5. A little constructive criticism for a lot(not all) of posters on this site. Get out of your Labor bubbles and get the opinions of real people(not ALP propaganda machine) like free range butchers, cafe owners/workers, teachers, fire fighters etc etc. Make it a broad cross section of society from Green and Teal voting inner city residents to outer suburban families to country people affected by the floods. You’d be surprised at the hatred to Andrews. Andrews best asset is the lobster mobster Guy.

  7. ABC now has the full ALP ticket (and also their remaining lower house candidates)

    Eastern Victoria: Tom McIntosh, Harriet Shing, Jannette Langley, Marg D’Arcy, Amie Templar-Kanshlo
    NE Metro: Shaun Leane, Sonja Terpstra, Nildhara Gadani, Kieran Simpson, Rana Shahid Javed
    Northern Metro: Sheena Watt, Enver Erdogan, Susie Byers, Chloe Gaul, Ramy Aljalil
    Northern Victoria: Jaclyn Symes, James McWhinney, Gareth Mills, Rahn Krammaer, Mitch Bridges
    SE Metro: Michael Galea, Lee Tarlamis, Tien Kieu, Imran Khan, Katrina Sullivan
    Southern Metro: John Berger, Ryan Batchelor, Lynn Psaila, Muhammad Shahbaz, Clive Crosby
    Western Metro: Lizzie Blandthorn, Ingrid Stitt, Cesar Melham, Cuc Lam, Nurul Khan
    Western Victoria: Gayle Tierney, Megan Bridger-Darling, Sue Pavlovich, Jacinta Ermacora, Heather Stokes

  9. Gees, the Age has turned in to the herald-Sun with their anti-Dan pravdaesque balanced independent journalism. 8 articles bagging Dan on their front page today. No mention of Lobster Guy at all.

    Do they want to live in South Gilead?

    I don’t remember this level of ‘analysis’ of the previous federal government!

  10. Kos Samaras on twitter

    —-
    What does the latest Newspoll/YouGov numbers tell us about the Victorian election?

    Firstly. Labor is experiencing a loss of 5% on primary. Most of it has landed on the Greens and ‘Others’.

    This loss will be patchy across the state. But seats will be lost.

    To who?

    Liberals will pick up a handful, Greens and possibly independents. Flip side, Liberals will possibly lose 2- 3 to independents.

    Presently, Labor is sitting on 43 to 48 seats. Majority in not a sure thing and it never has been.

    All will be revealed at the end of the month.

  11. Kos is the most honest and best pollster. Labor luvvies on this site despise him because ho no longer works for ALP. I believe he was closest to the money in Federal election yet posters on this site dismiss him. Why? We need more Green, independent, National and Liberal posters. We can then have discussion instead of most posters herding to ALP’s cause.

  14. Thanks Victoria, l didn’t know that. l know he does a lot of work for climate 200. Why the Labor people on this site detest and dismiss him? If he married to an ALP state MP l thought they’d(the luvvies) treat him like royalty. And a side note, l enjoy your posts.

  15. I don’t think anyone detests or dismisses him.

    For example I was actually directly quoting his polls which showed IND support between 8% and 11% in Brighton, Caulfield and Sandringham in my predictions of them remaining LIB v ALP contests because that was consistent with what Kos Samaras published.

  16. Kos Samaras – Director Strategy and Campaigns.
    “Kos specialises in combining research, analysis and marketing to maximise influence within the broader community, whilst utilising the best persuasion tools applicable to any given project and campaign.”
    In other words…..

  18. Trent, with the latest polling do you believe Dr John should now preference the independent above Labor in Brighton as the best chance for Dr John not to have a liberal member(and possible government)?
    Dr John needs to vote strategically.
    You agree?

  21. It’s been clear since the federal election that Kos Samaras’s Redbridge polling has an ulterior motive which is to generate momentum for the Climate 200 teals.

    We all know that independents usually fizzle out in single digits, unless there is huge momentum that creates the perception that a contest is only a (Major) vs IND one.

    That’s what happened with the federal seats in May. Kos and Redbridge played a huge part in creating that momentum, and then feeding it to the media who pushed it hard. It even resulted in a nationally televised debate for one of the seats. He’s a very smart strategist.

    It also helped of course that all the teal seats in May were ones that Labor were not competitive in, so it helped with that narrative.

    Going back to his state seat polls, you can clearly see the same intention and the attempt at the same strategy.

    Those polls had only 8-11% IND support but then he push-polled with leading questions about Monique Ryan, and the narrative fed to the media was:
    a) IF the Independent was as high quality as Monique Ryan they would be more competitive than the polling result; and
    b) IF the IND made the 2CP count (which his polling did not demonstrate) they would beat the LIB.

    The hypothetical LIB v IND 2CPs were fed to the media as part of that strategy to create the perception of LIB v IND contests, despite his very own polling showing the IND coming distant 4th in most of the seats (distant 3rd in Sandringham ahead of the Greens).

    This isn’t “despising” or “dismissing” Samaras. It’s recognising what his actual role is, and what his strategy is, and how he contributes to what is required to generate IND momentum. And that he is very good at it.

    But as I said, I am not dismissing his results, I think the low IND support recorded was very accurate because unlike the federal seats, these are not safe Liberal seats where only an IND could win. So a huge factor from the federal election is missing.

  22. As grandparents to 8, the eldest 9 years of age, we have received “material” in our letter box from the Liberal Party HQ in the CBD referring to Andrews dictating the sexuality of school children as gender fluid

    In going past our shopping centre I have given it to the individual handing out Liberal Party material with both barrels

    This election campaign is in the gutter, as low as it can possibly get courtesy of the Liberal Party and their media

    They should stick to jumping up and down in front of their “God” yelling for redemption

    They are truly right wing nut jobs living on the ark

    Hopefully society gives them their marching orders

    Incidentally, the neighbours I have spoken to are all as disgusted as we are

  23. I think the most effective attack ads Labor could run would be to explicitly link Guy & The Liberals to the fundamentalist extreme RWNJ fringe that has taken over the party.

    Not necessarily mentioning religion explicitly as that could backfire, but highlighting the takeover and subsequent preselections by extreme right-wing groups, and the reforms that would be at risk. That would be very effective in deterring most centrist voters in Victoria, particularly in the most marginal/key seats.

    On another note, I just got a text from the Prahran Liberal candidate inviting me to a free BBQ tomorrow. I live next to a polling booth where the Liberals got 13% in May lol, and the Greens and Labor combined for around 78%. So 4 in 5 people he’s inviting from around here are likely to be pretty hostile to his party. Not very well targeted since he has zero chance of winning the seat anyway, he could just end up with a whole lot of green t-shirts in the park!

  24. Thanks Trent
    Good to see a more realistic view of Kos’ modus operandi.
    Jeremy trying his darnedest on PB to run interference for who- knows- whom. These days you can never be sure about these pushies’ motives….have become far too cynical.
    Will sit back and wait for the results. Roll on the election.

  25. Here we go again. Totally agree with your last post. I have never understood how someone could be Religious. And for anyone to recieve that garbage is detrimental to society and the well-being and happiness of the youngest in our society who should be free to be who they want to be. And on a side note, Labor and Liberal both fund Religious schools and let them doctrine children and discriminate against us. Pathetic. Stop using taxpayers money to fund this.

  26. Gettysburg1863, is this site the domain of the Australian Labor Party???
    I’m running interference???
    Surely this site is a discussion about Victorian polls and politics. Do you really need to be around like minded individuals reconfirming your(ALP headquarters)opinions and beliefs without anyone questioning anything. You are sleepwalking into………

  27. Jeremy says:
    Saturday, November 5, 2022 at 4:59 am
    Dr John, probably a good idea you don’t bet considering you think Labor will win Brighton. Vote strategically Dr John and put the independent above Labor in Brighton, otherwise you might end up with a liberal member and maybe even a liberal government. You’re welcome for the help Dr John.
    ————————————-
    Your helping me and at 4:59 am after the pubs shut ha ha!
    Firstly I don’t recall saying “Labor will win Brighton”. Only said Labor will win the election.
    And my individual seat betting this election has basically been Caulfield.
    I am well aware of strategic voting and undertook it in Goldstein. And actually I previously had a 20 minute chat with Zoe Daniel and informed her of some LNP ‘character conduct’.
    I will not be voting independent in Brighton and for your edification there could be something a bit smelly with Felicity Frederico whom has sought Liberal preselection for Brighton on 3 occasions. Voting for her may end up supporting Newbury. She is a Liberal without the causes the moderate liberals had at the May election. And she is running on a platform of “integrity, trust and respect” which is funnily identical to the wording on Newbury boards that have sprung up all over the suburb.
    Labor nearly pulled it off in Brighton last election with an unknown candidate and could go one better this time with more exposed Louise Crawford, actress and former mayor. (Newbury of course has much more exposure and dough to throw around this time too).
    And Jeremy I will bet… in the 2nd race at Geelong today

  28. Whilst a 2pp of 54/46 does seem plausible, given the absolute ineptitude of the Vic Libs a primary of 37% really doesn’t seem realistic. Especially in the context of the other polls which have had the Libs + nats primary sitting at ~31% for the past year. A primary of 37% also seems unlikely with the RWNJ parties peeling votes off on the right.

    The liberals have had 4 years to convince the state to vote for them, but have given Victoria every reason not to. In 2018 the L/NP brought in a combined primary of ~35%. That was when they were deemed a somewhat credible opposition, they’re now widely perceived across both sides of politics as incompetent, impotent, and ineffectual.

    The only thing going the their way is the supposed anti-Dan/lockdown sentiment and the rabid attacks by Costello and Murdoch. But the real question is where are these votes coming from and in what magnitude.

    Personally, I think Labor will cop a swing on primary. But for the most part I think that’ll end up with the Greens and other minor left wing parties rather than floating off to the coalition.

    We’re still 3 weeks out, but the Victorian Labor campaign machine is polished and deliberate, as well as vicious in their attacks on Guy. Whereas the Liberal campaign seems disorganised and desperate with a bizarre social media presence.

    It’s gunna be a Labor majority, will just be interesting to finally see how the dIcTatOr dAn narrative plays into the result as well as the degree of influence the traditional media still has.

  29. Currently, I think we are 2 or 3 candidates off of the amount from 2018 in the lower house, so it will be smashed.

    Werribee currently has 12 candidates running, matching the highest from 2018 (Melton, which currently has 8)

    Tim Pallas (ALP), Mia Shaw (LIB), Jack Boddeke (GRN), Josh Segrave (AJP), Sue Munro (VS), Kathryn Breakwell (DLP), Karen Hogan (HAP), Mark Strother (FPV), Prashant Tandon (ND), Patrizia Barcatta (IND), Paul Hopper (IND), and Heni Kwan (IND)

  30. @Jeremy
    To suggest that I mindlessly regurgitate ALP HQ opinions seems to indicate that I was quite within my rights to wonder aloud about your motives posting here. I admit I am cynical, after years of watching politics in this country.
    I am a Labor/ Green voter but I don’t unquestioningly accept every comment either Party makes. But I do believe a synthesis of the best policies of both Parties is the way to go. I keep an open mind on most aspects of life but there are too many undercurrents in politics and political discourse to not carry a level of cynicism.
    To resort to pitiful riposte about my level of political maturity does nothing more than stoke my cynicism.
    Have a nice day.

  32. Justin, any idea if any of the independent candidates has a high level of support. Say 10% plus could be enough to ride the wave of Labor discontent and gobble up the preferences of others. This really is a fascinating election.

  34. @Gettysburg1863, I agree with your sentiment.

    I haven’t actually noticed anybody reciting lines from ALP HQ or even discussing ALP policy except the very rare comment here and there.

    The reason the commentary has suggested an ALP win is precisely because the posts are commenting on polls which suggest that, yet Jeremy continues to say we “should stick to talking about polls”. Well, that’s what everyone is doing. Translating polls to seat count, etc.

    And if anything, ALP HQ would love talk of minority government because it usually drives the late undecided voters to them as it did in 2018. So talking about a likely majority government is hardly what Labor HQ would be pushing.

    Politically I am with you Gettysburg. In the last 6 elections, federal and state, I have voted Greens and Labor 3 times each in the lower house. I think both parties have strengths and weaknesses and the best of both is the right mix. I like that a strong Greens presence or at least “threat” can pull Labor to the left but also recognise that a Labor government can deliver real outcomes. I can’t stand, or even understand, the constant Labor v Greens arguments and just think the supporters of both should unite against the Liberals and be happy there are two competitive parties on the left that outnumber the Libs in this state.

    I’m glad to live in seats where now only Labor or Greens can win, because I’m happy with either outcome. For example in May I was disappointed that Steph Hodgins-May didn’t win (I voted for her) but am certainly not disappointed to have Josh Burns as my MP because I think he’s great, and an asset to Labor. I’m glad the RWNJ Liberal candidate suffered their worst result in Ports/Macnamara since the 1960s and the real contest was between two quality candidates, it’s win-win.

  36. Feeling a bit disengaged from this election due to work etc.

    But I saw something suggesting a millionaire was offering to ‘bankroll’ up to 50 ‘independent’ candidates to run in the Premier’s seat of Mulgrave. As I understand electoral law, it is a criminal offence to offer inducements to someone to run for office (or to not run for office). Anyone out there have any idea how this proposal would stand up with respect to the relevant Electoral Act?

  39. Jeremy says:
    Saturday, November 5, 2022 at 8:13 am

    Kos is the most honest and best pollster. Labor luvvies on this site despise him because ho no longer works for ALP. I believe he was closest to the money in Federal election yet posters on this site dismiss him. Why? We need more Green, independent, National and Liberal posters. We can then have discussion instead of most posters herding to ALP’s cause.
    ——————-
    Who here despises Kos?

    His content is good and i only disagree with Kos on some of the federal election result in seats like Kooyong and even there i’m not saying Kos was totally wrong but he seemed to overestimated the roll of young renters when many Teal supporters are middle aged and older but i put that down to Kos looking at the youngest booth (Swinburne) which went strongly to Ryan and the richest booth (Scotch) which went strongly to Frydenberg and assumed that Swinburne is representative of the whole electorate.

  40. Rocket Rocket, l think the “millionaire” suggested he/she would donate the maximum amount, circa 4k to each independent candidate. Up to 50 candidates,.so approximately 200k he/she would be out of pocket.

  41. Mexicanbeemer

    I was stuck in traffic on Glenferrie Rd in Hawthorn yesterday and saw many people canvassing for the “Teal”candidate – average age 50 I’d say.

    I remember walking around some of Kooyong electorate in federal election campaign and the Monique Ryan corflutes were most common on the houses of baby boomers so you may be right.

  42. Jeremy

    Interesting – but I do wonder whether ‘canvassing’ for candidates like that is skating close to the edge legally.

    And if they induce a few who think they can pocket the $4k it would become very murky.

  44. Question mark is how can they be independent when they are bankrolled by one person

    If this someone doing it against the lib/nats , the corrupt media would be hysterical

  46. 1. Andrews would be laughing his head off if he had to face 50 candidates. They’d all just split each others’ vote and send the Liberals’ even further south.
    2. Kos has to be taken with a grain of salt: he’s essentially talking his own book. He also has some weird ideas that mean he’s not as highly regarded in / tightly linked to Labor circles as you might think: he’s a gadfly, not a player.

  47. Each independent candidates needs to get 6 signatures from people who are enrolled within the electorate who have not previously endorsed someone else. That means in order to get 50 independents on the ballot, they would need 300 people within Mulgrave to sign forms (and not stuff up and sign more than one form too) or about 0.6% of the electorate.

    Federally to nominate as an independent one needs 100 signatures which seems a much more reasonable amount to stop time wasting activity.

    The deposit is only $350 for a lower house district which is lower than it is federally too where the deposit is $2000. Victoria probably needs to up both the deposit amount and the number of signatures after this election because this could happen again (and none of the Labor, Liberals, Nationals or Greens want it to) .

    Back in the days before group ticket voting was created in the senate, it was necessary to number all the boxes below the line and the informal rate was around 10% to 15%. It is one of many reason why Australia developed the basically unique How to Vote cards.

    Many candidates tends to help the established candidate

  48. I’ve got no idea about individual seats with Independents and Preferences all over the place.
    I’ve also got no idea how close the current polls will be to the final result.
    I do know however that Dan has had an ordinary campaign. He has become the issue. Not the constant parade of hand outs and promises – which will all be forgotten on the day of the election.
    The issue will be simple – do I want more of Dan or do I want the very ordinary alternative?
    If the polls continue to tighten, and the issue is still Dan running from media questions about corruption,I would not be surprised if Dan will be forced into a minority Government.
    I would be shocked if Guy is in the game at the end of counting on Election Day. Guy would be shocked also. But politics occasionally produces a result that no one, no expert, no politician ever, ever saw coming.

  50. B.S. Fairman says:
    Saturday, November 5, 2022 at 4:03 pm
    They can be independent because they are not endorsed by a registered political party. It is that simply.
    —————————————
    This seems to be political party endorsing independents
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/teals-eye-guy-s-seat-but-liberals-back-independents-in-andrews-backyard-20220701-p5ayb4.html

    The Victorian Liberal Party is providing support to independents in government-held electorates ahead of the state election in the hope of stripping seats from Labor.

    Three senior Liberal Party sources told The Age that for 18 months the party has been training prominent locals to run as independents in Labor-held seats like Melton, Werribee, Dandenong and Premier Daniel Andrews’ south-eastern seat of Mulgrave, which is held by a 12 per cent margin.

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