Three weeks out from the election, The Australian today has a Newspoll state poll for Victoria showing Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, in from 56-44 at the last such poll in August. Labor and the Coalition are tied at 37% on the primary vote, respectively down four and up one, with the Greens steady on 13%. Daniel Andrews is down three on approval to 51% and up three on disapproval to 44%, while Matthew Guy is respectively steady on 32% and up three to 52%. Daniel Andrews leads 52-33 on preferred premier, little changed from 51-34 last time. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1007.
The formal campaign period began with the issuing of the writs on Tuesday: enrolments close next Tuesday; nominations close on Friday (a day earlier for those endorsed by registered parties), with ballot paper draws to follow immediately after; early voting begins the following Monday, November 14; and the big day is November 26. Registration of parties closed last week, so the full list of eligible parties is here. My election guide is here – I hope for the Legislative Council guide to be added to it at some point over the weekend.
Further developments:
• There was a late retirement last week from Jaala Pulford, who holds a Legislative Council seat for Labor in Western Victoria region and was seat to lead the party’s ticket. There has been no specific reporting on what this might mean for the party ticket, but the Herald Sun reported Pulford’s place was likely to be taken by a female candidate of the Right, and in particular to one associated with Richard Marles.
• A report in the Herald Sun on October 13 noted discontent in some Labor quarters that recent spending commitments have focused on Melbourne’s outer east and south-east and have ignored the north and west. Those pushing the story expressed concern over Melton, Werribee, Point Cook, South Barwon, Bellarine and Yan Yean. In a similar vein, a report from Rachel Baxendale in The Australian on Wednesday cited unidentified Labor sources complaining that the northern and south-western corridors, which “probably need an additional new hospital each”, were being neglected to indulge Brunswick, where eight level crossings are being removed, and Bayswater, which has been targeted with commitments including a $60 million train station.
• Another Labor source, or possibly the same one, has briefed Kieran Rooney of the Herald Sun on preference negotiations with the Greens which would “sell out” the party’s own upper house members and “allies”, the latter seemingly referring to micro-party cross-benchers. Presumably the concern is that Labor’s own lower order candidates would be endangered if the party dealt itself out of negotiations with micro-parties for the sake of a deal with the Greens, the quid pro quo for which would be the Greens direct preferences to Labor in lower house seats. The report also speaks of “internal angst about the idea of preferencing the party in regional areas with coal and logging industries”.
• The contest for the outer western Melbourne seat of Melton is proving a source of particular fascination for the media, with a profile on the seat appearing in the Sunday Age and Virginia Trioli hosting a candidates’ forum on ABC Radio yesterday. The seat has traditionally been safe for Labor, but it dramatically bucked the trend at the 2018 election in recording a 6.9% two-party swing to the Liberals as voters abandoned both major parties for a huge field of independent and minor party contenders. Infrastructure has not kept up with growth in the area, and there is particular bitterness locally on lack of progress for a promised hospital. The strongest performing of the independents, Florey Institute brain scientist Ian Birchall, is again taking the field at this election.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of the Victorian state election. The thread for general discussion is here.
Well, what can I say about the Victorian state election: All the opinion polls since June have fluctuated in their 2PP for the ALP from 56% to 60.5%…. This defies any normal level of error (sampling or systematic). Note that this has happened in spite of the usual, relentless media propaganda against the ALP and Dan Andrews in particular.
If a substantial win for the ALP is confirmed on election night, I invite everybody to start considering very seriously the process of “Voter De-Moronisation”. It’s a saviour for Democracy in this Trumpist age of media crap, lies and widespread manipulation.
Alpo @ 7.35am
Some form of “Voter De-Moronisation” has probably already started in some areas and at some levels.
The results in Victoria at this election are eagerly anticipated in order to perhaps judge the progress of “Voter De-Moronisation” and if it has gained a foothold in Australian voter behaviour.
There appears very little evidence that “Media De-Moronisation” has progressed at all. There are instances where it seems to have digressed, becoming more entrenched as “Voter De-Moronisation” and behaviour appears to be changing.
Some media outlets are still attempting to “defy gravity”.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/10/29/resolve-strategic-59-41-in-victoria/#comments
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/why-victorian-voters-need-to-care-about-press-freedom-20221103-p5bv82.html?btis
Alpo, methinks you should vote Green or independent.
What’s next from the Lib. dirt unit I wonder?
Pull the other one:-)))))
‘Love us or loathe us, the media serves a vital role in informing the public about how we are governed and, while far from perfect, even an imperfect free press is better than the alternative.’
Even when our bias clearly shows through.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/why-victorian-voters-need-to-care-about-press-freedom-20221103-p5bv82.html
Grime, is that how you learn for the Labor dirt unit? By watching the Libs? Both major parties corrupt. Vote Independent and Green.
You don’t have to be Jewish.But it doesn’t hurt.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-04/caulfield-candidates-debate-victorian-election/101614664
“Jeremy says:
Friday, November 4, 2022 at 8:09 am
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/why-victorian-voters-need-to-care-about-press-freedom-20221103-p5bv82.html?btis
Alpo, methinks you should vote Green or independent.”
Although I don’t vote in Victoria, here in Queensland, and consistent with my Social Democratic views, I vote ALP1, Greens2…. LNP last. Thanks to that, the Greens won in my seat of Brisbane against the LNP at the last federal election, as the ALP came third after preferences distribution.
I often clash with some Greens supporters, especially in The Guardian, but that’s usually in response to their obsession with smearing the ALP at all costs, in the hope of getting some votes trickling down from “disaffected” ALP supporters. I reject that vote-scavenging-obsession-at-all-costs. For both ALP and Greens the major focus of attack must be the Coalition.
You a “leaner” or “lifter” Alpo?
l hate seeing my taxpayers dollars being wasted by government. l think the Libs are better at wasting it. Would be happy to pay more tax if such a large percentage wasn’t wasted on rorts, corruption, and governments of both persuasion lacking transparency. Surely your social democratic views, you should be voting Greens before Labor. Cost of housing(renting or owning) alone should have you raged like a bull at Labor.
I see that Jeremy is still clinging to same old, same old lie. Goebbels was onto this technique. Tell a big lie and repeat it endlessly.
It worked for the Greens during past 9 years. Since the election reality has put a lie to the same old, same old lie.
The Greens Voice Busters have been doing their worst.
And Labor has been doing its best.
1. Vic Labor supports the Diamonds, filling the ethical and financial hole left by a certain commercial interest.
2. The Government today announced the appointment of Adjunct Professor Debora Picone AO as Chair of the Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Review Reference Committee. Making good on rescuing Australian women and children from hell hole camps.
3. National Plan to End Violence against Women and Children 2022–2032
4. Extension of paid parental leave in the 2022 Budget.
5. Moves afoot to rescue 20 Australian women and around 40 children from a Turkish internment camp.
6. Jayne Jagot appointed to Australia’s High Court, creating first majority-female bench.
7. Ms Falkingham will be the first permanent female Chief Executive of the NDIA.
8. Federal Labor has appointed three eminently well qualified women to the Climate Council. This offsets the undue representation of businessmen on the Council.
9. Federal Indigenous Affairs Minister Burney supports the development of a separate National Strategy to Address Violence Against Indigenous Women. The latter will be heavily involved in the design of the Strategy.
10. The Victorian government on Sunday announced it would spend $270 million to recruit and train thousands of new nurses and midwives under the scheme.
11. Labor has more female MPs than male MPs. (The Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments were not within a bull’s roar of this achievement.)
12. Labor is fully committed to implementing all the Jenkins Report recommendations. (The Morrison Government implemented a view recommendations but basically sat on the vast majority of the Report’s recommendations.)
13. High levels of women in the ministry. (Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments had far, far fewer women in the ministry).
14. Labor gave a direction to the Fair Work Commission to specifically take into account the gender pay gap along with power to make gender specific determinations to close the gap. (The Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments had one universal ambitions: to damp down any real wage growth and showed zero interest in closing the gender pay gap.)
15. Labor intervened directly in the minimum wage decision which disproportionately benefits the lowest paid workers: women. (Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison did not do this.)
16. In recent departmental secretary appointments: Labor appointed three out of the four women. (Morrison’s last five secretarial appointments in 2019 involved a net loss of three women.)
17. Labor is setting the tone by promising to make boards, such as the Reserve Bank Board more representative.
18. Three Labor women ministers to lead aspects of the skills and jobs summit that relate to women’s participation, women upskilling and closing the wages gap.
19. Labor has avoided school holidays for sitting days.
20. Labor has instituted humane sitting hours on sitting days.
21. Morrison Government sat on the Report on the National Stakeholder Consultation for a Ten Year Domestic Violence Plan. Labor has released the Report with expedition.
22. Labor introduces paid domestic violence leave legislation
23. Ten days domestic violence leave for casual workers.
24. Submission to the Fair Work Commission on pay in the Aged Care industry. Four out of five workers in that industry are women.
25. Moves to legislate on coercive control.Not one of those eleven were in place in the past nine years.
26. Removes the ban on military and public service staff from engaging in certain “woke” charity, cultural and diversity events, imposed by former minister Peter Dutton last year.
First it was pictures of potholes in roads from another country, now this. You should need an integrity test before you can use the internet. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-04/fact-check-dan-andrews-armed-police-office-beach-pic/101611956
LOL. So now Dan Andrews is responsible for Ukrainian roads AND the Brazilian military police! Boy he really has spread his wings.
I wonder how many of the upper house micro-candidates who paid thousands to be part of preference deals last time but failed to be elected will be stupid enough to do it again.
The article appears to have no provision for readers’ comments (at least on my non-subscription snippet).
Perhaps Ms Smethurst does not believe in the freedom of others to criticise her opinions.
Smethurst has obviously forgotten, or has deliberately chosen to forget, that it was Dutton’s Black Shirts who raided her home.
Despite, that slight inconvenience, she still manages to roll out the Tory line for Costello’s right-wing rag in Melbourne.
Yet, people are posting indignant nonsense regarding the loss of democracy because an extremist, right wing American has purchased Twitter.
I think the ALP would better off doing a deal with the Greens in the upper house (perhaps with Reason as well) because there is little to be gained from dealing the majority of the minors (who are mostly actively opposed to the current government).
Labor is probably going to get over 33.3% in most of the regions and in two of those they don’t (Northern Victoria and Eastern Victoria) they would get over the line because the Greens are likely to eliminated before the second Labor candidate.
In the two regions where they got 3 candidates up – Western Metro and SouthEast Metro) will most likely result in the Greens preferences getting them over the line.
Only in Southern Metro is there a risk that the 2nd Labor candidate miss out in place of the Green (hence why Nina Taylor is now running in Albert Park instead).
Then there is Northern Metro. Fiona Pattern of the Reason party is probably the only other MLC member worth protecting but she is likely to be in trouble anyway unless she increases her vote significantly. The Greens are likely to get a quota in their own right here and Labor will get two.
Andy Merricks is probably the only other “ally” of the ALP, but he partook in the preference whispering last time and probably will again.
Labor would definitely be better dealing with the Greens than micro-parties in the upper house this time.
It may make little to no difference to their LC seat count, but at least if Greens are elected instead of a rag-tag bunch of minors who may not be as ALP-friendly as Reason & AJP are, they know they will have support for most of the bills they need to pass. Better to have to deal with less parties than more of them, especially when the make up of those parties could be a real wild card.
They aren’t going to have an LC majority anyway, so their primary goal just needs to be 21 reliable left-leaning votes in the upper house. Preferencing the Greens is a safe way to do that; and if the Greens do so in return then any excess quotas should flow between the two to help bump the other up to quota.
The worst case scenario would be if they’re stuck on 19 or 20 left-leaning votes because right-wing minors beat out of the Greens. That would be a much more obstructive chamber to pass legislation through. Better to make any right-wing MLCs completely irrelevant by not needing their vote.
For example, Labor would be better off losing an upper house seat to the Greens but finishing with 17 and having 3 Greens and Reason for 21 reliable votes, than shutting out the Greens to help retain 18 MLCs but then only have 1 Green and Reason, and having to deal with obstructive RWNJs or random single-issue parties for the 21st vote.
Does anyone happen to know what’s going on with Labor’s ticket in Northern Metropolitan? Wikipedia says Nazih Elasmar is top of the ticket but there was quite a bit of reportage that he’d been demoted or dumped. I also suspect Wikipedia is wrong to have Amie Templar-Kanshlo ahead of Tom McIntosh in Eastern Victoria.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_of_the_2022_Victorian_state_election
@William
According to the confirmed candidates website, Labor’s Northern Metropolitan ticket will be Chloe Gaul, Enver Erdogan, Sheena Watt and Susie Byers, so it seems Nazih Elasmar was dumped.
Also the Eastern Victoria ticket does seem to be Amie Templar-Kanshlo, Harriet Shing and Tom McIntosh.
However, this particular site might be out of date since it still lists Jaala Pulford on the Western Victoria ticket after she announced her retirement from politics.
https://www.thisislabor.org/members-update/
This is how ABC has the ALP tickets
Eastern Victoria: Tom McIntosh, Harriet Shing, Amie Templar-Kansho
NE Metro: Shaun Leane, Sonja Terpstra, Nildhara Gadani
Northern Metro: Sheena Watt, Enver Erdogan, Susie Byers, Chloe Gaul
Northern Victoria: Jaclyn Symes, James McWhinney, Gareth Mills
SE Metro: Michael Galea, Lee Tarlamis, Tien Kieu, Imran Khan
Southern Metro: John Berger, Ryan Batchelor
Western Metro: Lizzie Blandthorn, Ingrid Stitt, Cesar Melhem
Western Victoria: Gayle Tierney, Megan Bridger-Darling
Thanks both. I don’t think the ALP site has them in any particular order — with one exception, who was probably bolted on post facto, the order is alphabetical by first name. The ABC’s is easier to believe, though I’d have thought Shing would have seniority over McIntosh.
https://www.theage.com.au/environment/conservation/logging-agency-vicforests-failed-to-protect-endangered-possums-court-finds-20221104-p5bvj5.html?btis
Vote Green and independents if you care about environment.
Question:
5. Moves afoot to rescue 20 Australian women and around 40 children from a Turkish internment camp.?
I’m curious to know are these women Austraian born females or were they born overseas !.
There is a difference in the way they will bring up their children.
Trent says:
Friday, November 4, 2022 at 12:28 pm
Labor would definitely be better dealing with the Greens than micro-parties in the upper house this time.
The Greens spend their time trying to undermine Labor, it is hard to see any justification for that comment.
I’m referring specifically to right-wing minor parties. That was stated explictly in the full context of my comment.
My comment was arguing that Labor would pass progressive legislation more easily with the support of the Greens than if they had to negotiate with right-wing parties like the Liberal Democrats, if we don’t end up with a left-leaning block of 21 votes which is a real possibility with GTV and all the nutty RWNJ parties.
The Greens’ voting record in parliament – which supports more of the ALP’s bills than that of the Liberal Democrats – is what justifies my comment.
So I’m a little unclear on your comment. Did you just misunderstand me, or are you stating that you’d prefer that Labor require the votes of right-wing minors in the LC? Or just trying to an initiate a Labor/Greens argument when there really wasn’t one?
Certainly in 2018 there was expectations with the ALP that the Justice Party was going to more useful than they provided to be. Instead, firstly Cummings was a nut and left within hours of being elected. And then the other two were pretty useless too. If they had been a block of 3, that would have been enough to pass legalisation with but after Cummings left, they were just a road block like the other parties.
The most of the other rightwing crossbenchers were hoped to be cooperative than they proved but I don’t think hopes were as high. Certainly the SFF in Victoria provided to different to their NSW counterparts.
Couple of random upper house observations:
Derryn Hinch (the man himself) is running in South Metro.
Geoff Shaw (the ex-Lib who pretty much single-handedly took down the last Lib govt) is running for Palmer’s party in Northern Vic. Long way from Frankston.
Also, Ricky Muir is running for SFF in Gippsland East. He ran for them in Morwell in 2018, and got 7% in a very crowded field – he could be worth keeping an eye on.
Trent says:
..
So I’m a little unclear on your comment. Did you just misunderstand me, or are you stating that you’d prefer that Labor require the votes of right-wing minors in the LC? Or just trying to an initiate a Labor/Greens argument when there really wasn’t one?
Not not trying to start a Green/Labor argument.
It is just a fact, Victorian Labor has worked out how to deal with the Greens, don’t depend on them for anything.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/victorian-premier-daniel-andrews-investigated-by-anti-corruption-watchdog-20221103-p5bvfb.html?btis
VOTE INDEPENDENT OR GREEN
“Jeremy says:
Friday, November 4, 2022 at 7:59 pm
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/victorian-premier-daniel-andrews-investigated-by-anti-corruption-watchdog-20221103-p5bvfb.html?btis
VOTE INDEPENDENT OR GREEN”
From the link: “Revelations of the anti-corruption investigation will prompt fresh questions about the government’s integrity record”…
There is no “revelation”, The Age only has “questions”, not answers. Questions mean nothing until they are answered. If that’s the kind of propaganda that the Liberals (or Greens or Independents) believe will help them at the Victoria election…. Good luck!… Oh, and you guys are fast running out of time…
Jeremysays:
Friday, November 4, 2022 at 7:59 pm
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/victorian-premier-daniel-andrews-investigated-by-anti-corruption-watchdog-20221103-p5bvfb.html?btis
VOTE INDEPENDENT OR GREEN
——————————
Why?
“frednk says:
Friday, November 4, 2022 at 7:19 pm
…It is just a fact, Victorian Labor has worked out how to deal with the Greens, don’t depend on them for anything.”
Yep, the approach is very simple: get enough votes to be able to form government on your own…. “Genius”, eh?
Alpo says:
Friday, November 4, 2022 at 8:10 pm
…Good luck!… Oh, and you guys are fast running out of time…
—————————–
Alpo, who do you think wins when Jeremy & Taylormade play marbles in the sandpit?
The quoting is from the Murdoch media – so enough said
Mind you both the Stokes 7 Network and the Costello 9 Entertainment are not far behind in terms of absolute bias
In regard $60 Million for the Bayswater train station, this station was completely rebuilt just a couple of years ago when the level crossings at each end were removed – so a significant improvement to the precinct
Noting the ALP then took the seat off the Liberals at the last election
With children living on the other side of Dandenong Creek and knowing what is transpiring locally, perhaps the media have mixed the Station with Bayswater Secondary College and the works there which are progressing (and the proposed works at other schools)
There is local objection to the train station car park the (Liberal controlled) Council appears intent on proceeding with at Heathmont despite the defeat of the government which committed to this pork barrel project
Why Heathmont and not Ringwood which is the intersection of 2 rail lines so double the services is the question
It is anticipated that this Federal Government spending will not proceed – which will please local citizens but not certain local Liberal supporting businesses which saw commuters parking there as a source of trade
So if they are commuting to the city and their cars are in the mooted park, before 8AM and after 6PM
When the businesses promoting the car park are shut
The media coverage has degenerated to abject rubbish
The interesting fact is that the candidate for Hawthorn, defeated at the last election, is being promoted as the incoming Liberal Party leader
So how does this sit with Guy?
The presumption is that the Liberal Party will be wiped and the new Leader will be (and was expected to be after the last election)
You won’t read about that in the media
According to media the Liberal Party is one big happy family – except …….
That article on The Age is just rubbish.
Yesterday’s article about the gag order made it sound like there was something explosive.
Turns out, the Premier’s office is just being questioned about a rushed tender process for a training program.
If “Red Shirts”, which actually did misuse taxpayer dollars (although it didn’t involve Dan Andrews directly) didn’t have any impact on either the 2018 election result or the current polling, then what makes them think this will?
Basicially the training program had been on the cards for months before the election. The $1.2m (peanuts really) would have been spent on the program anyway. It wa a worthy program – equipping healthcare workers to protect themselves from violence. So nobody would dispute the use of money. The only thing being questioned is the method by which the tender process quickly occurred to sign the contract before the caretaker period.
Remember the Coalition signed a contract worth 1,000 times that – over $1b – DURING the caretaker period in 2014, deliberately to put taxpayers on the hook for something they knew would be cancelled, purely as a political wedge. That was basically a $1b gift out of taxpayer money, that they committed an incoming government to. Far more corrupt. Not to mention Liberal donors buying industrial zoned land at Fisherman’s Bend for cheap right before it was rezoned, not reserving public land first, then rezoning and having their mates sell the land needed for public use back to the government for a massive profit. Oh and that was Matthew Guy personally as the planning minister!
So I don’t think voters will care too much about the method by which a contract was signed for a union to provide a worthwhile $1.2m safety training program that was going to happen regardless.
Even the Herald Sun, which ran the same story, doesn’t even have it as a top headline. It had something about soccer higher! Tells you how much they must think voters will care about it.
Then Annika Smethurst writes an opinion piece about how Dan’s lucky he’s not in NSW. The Age’s anti-Labor bias has just been shocking since Nine/Costello took it over.
In respect to cost of housing, for every willing seller there is a willing buyer (who can obviously service the mortgage loan applied for)
Houses sell by the hundreds and more every single day
Ditto rents – the investor will receive what the prospective renter offers and can afford (noting shared accommodation)
Public housing and eligibility is another issue – including on a temporary basis
And Smuthouse does not have an email address for contact
I wonder why not?
Smuthouse runs scared
Newspoll 54-46. Primaries ALP 37 (-6), Coalition 37 (+2), Greens 13 (+2), Others 13 (+2). All changes vs 2018.
Andrews favourability 51-44, leads preferred Premier 52-33.
That poll is pretty much where I figured support currently is.
Probably some large anti-Labor swings (7-10%) in some regions, with some neutral swings and even small pro-Labor (or more like anti-Lib) swings elsewhere to balance it out for an overall -3% on 2PP compared to 2018.
Of course the problem for the Coalition remains that the areas mostly likely accounting for most of the swing are where the margins are the largest, and the least winnable seats are.
The other thing too is that when you’re leading on both the party preferred AND preferred premier, it’s still a strong position that doesn’t indicate an appetite for change.
When you compare to the federal elections for example where Labor led in 2019 but Shorten trailed as preferred PM, or even this year where Labor led 53-47 but preferred PM was a virtual tie. In both cases that helped secure the late undecided voters for the Coalition to narrow the gap.
Having a large preferred premier lead in addition to leading the 2PP would generally translate into winning those undecided voters.
It’s worth noting too that Andrews’ personal ratings are both above 50% too so even the undecideds don’t close the gap for Guy.
Of course The Australian tried to report it as Labor being in trouble, applying a uniform swing to report “up to 10 seat losses” (which is still a 4 seat majority), but obviously if large swings occur in some areas then the swing can’t be uniform so seats on 3% margins outside the large swing areas are less likely to fall.
*Waits for Jeremy to post Sportsbet odds for a minority government though* 😉
Guy’s favourability was 32-52 (-20).
For all the talk about Andrews being unpopular, a +7 favourability rating that’s over 50% favourable debunks that myth.
Those who don’t like him just really happen to passionately despise him.
Trent
Yep. Cos Dan caused the pandemic. You know it makes sense!
Considering all the media including the ABC has been anti Dan and Labor, its any wonder the vote is holding up.
The Age’s breathless rush to report, which is going to get them pullled up screaming and kicking by a Court for breach of the gag order (to what they imagine to be a martyr’s welcome from the public) is…
over a publicly announced election commitment from the 2018 election to fund a training program for frontline health workers to deal with violent behaviour?!?!?!?!?!?!
Look, I freely admit I’m biased here, but I can’t actually see what the problem is meant to be. It’s within the government’s power to declare they are going to partner with a union to do a training program for health workers, and it was not just publicly announced, it was taken to the previous election as an election commitment which is as open and democratic as you can get.
This isn’t a tender for pens being diverted to a union bidder who’s marking them up compared to the lowest cost bidder, a sneaky kickback scheme – that would be corrupt. This is an openly declared government policy. Why is IBAC even looking at this?
Look at Annika Smethurst’s whinge about how Andrews is lucky he’s not in NSW. They are so mad that no matter what they try they can’t mount his head on a spike on their balcony and cheer themselves as the great defenders of democracy who brought down Dictator Dan.
Well said Arky.
There are report in the Herald Sun of someone offering to bankroll the deposits of 50 independents to run in Mulgrave against Andrews.
Just discovered this site during a search for polls that weren’t behind mainstream media paywalls. How refreshing to find intelligent adults discussing politics in a rational calm manner. Thank you so much!
I’m sure I’ll be visiting here often- to save my sanity and become informed. Thanks again!
That seems like an idiotic idea if their goal is to “unseat Dan”.
For people who planned to vote Labor, whether there’s one independent or 50 independents won’t make a difference to their vote.
All it will do is split the IND vote, increase the informal rate (probably mostly among IND voters), and leak preferences that will make it harder for an IND to land in the 2CP.
Really don’t understand the strategy behind that, other than to piss off voters by giving them a massive ballot!
a 54-46 result makes more sense than 59-41 because Victoria rarely gives sitting government’s back to back swings and the last election result was always going to be difficult to repeat and would be closer to what people in the government think the result will be but the bigger issue for the government is does this result if it happens make it vulnerable in 2026 because governments usually suffer a swing in the election before getting booted.
That’s an interesting poll. I have found the first serious poll after the start of an election campaign is usually fairly good. Maybe just a bit of the low side for Labor? But that leadership advantage figure isn’t that great given that the Opposition Leader seems to be a bit of a muppet
Just looked at Kos’ twitter and the full numbers are there. So nothing has changed in the last year, including all the leadership ratings and vote shares, other than 5 or 6% of Labor’s primaries going elsewhere.