Resolve Strategic: Labor 38, Coalition 35, Greens 11 in NSW

After a Labor blowout last time, Resolve Strategic lands close to recent Newspoll and Freshwater Strategy results in its latest New South Wales state poll.

The Sydney Morning Herald has a Resolve Strategic state poll for New South Wales, showing Labor with a lead over the Coalition of 38% to 35% on the primary vote, narrowing from a rather striking result of 43% to 30% at the previous such poll in mid-September. No two-party result is provided, but if preferences behaved as they typically do, it would come in at around 54-46 to 55-45 in favour of Labor. The Greens are up one to 11% and independents are steady on 10%. Dominic Perrottet and Chris Minns are again effectively tied on preferred premier with a result of 30-29 in favour of Perrottet, compared with 28-28 last time. The reported sample size is 1150 – I presume the poll to be a combination of results from this week’s post-budget poll and the previous national poll in early October.

For a whole lot more on New South Wales politics, a ran an extensive post at the start of the week on recent developments relevant to the March 25 state election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

25 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 38, Coalition 35, Greens 11 in NSW”

  1. With a combined primary vote of below 40% and around 35%
    The nsw lib/nats are heading in the same direction as the federal Lib/nats the election wont be competitive

  2. These poll numbers are still very strong for the NSW ALP. So what exactly would be the point of a NSW Labor government? Minns looks to me like a do-nothing populist. I get they’ve been in the wilderness for 12 years and are desperate to win, but what do they actually stand for? Isn’t Labor supposed to be the party of reform? First we had the awful decision by NSW Labor to wreck state tax reform, by overturning replacement of stamp duty with land tax should they win, and now we have them pandering to the gambling industry, by refusing to support Perrottet’s plan to introduce a cashless gaming card. Is there any principle they aren’t happy to throw overboard?

    I was elated by the defeat of Morrison and the federal LNP, and I’m very happy with the performance of the new federal government so far. But for NSW I’m pretty indifferent about who forms government, although the election itself will be fascinating, given the many independents and minor party candidates in the current parliament. I just hope there is a sane independent candidate running in Newcastle I can support-someone along the lines of Greg Piper in Lake Macquarie would do.

  3. Newcastle Moderate says:
    Saturday, November 5, 2022 at 8:35 am

    “So what exactly would be the point of a NSW Labor government?”….

    Yes, it is a fair point given that we are getting relatively close to the next state election.
    I went to the NSW Labor website, to see their program, and this is what I found:

    “The 2022 NSW State Conference will take place Saturday 15 and Sunday 16 October 2022.

    State Conference is the peak decision making body of the NSW Labor Party. All Party members can attend the conference as observers by registering for an Observer Pass.

    As we lead up to the 2023 NSW State Election, this is the perfect opportunity to lay the foundations for our platform and policies to take to voters.”
    https://www.nswlabor.org.au/conference

    Fair enough, the process of building their final electoral platform to take to the voters will start at the conference in about 10 days.

    Looking forward to reading the final document sometime after the conference.

  4. Cabramatta again might give the ALP some surprises if a certain local lawyer is preselected. Even though they are in the dominant faction, even though they and their cronies control some local branches but they are as popular to the community as a pustule on the butt. They’ve been frantically trying to remake their images through social media but the community was not born yesterday.

  5. I will be voting ALP.

    I’m not too hot on Minns. I’d have preferred Jodie McKay. Minns seems shifty.

    I’m voting mainly against Perrottet. No more RWNJs thanks. Bye.

  6. NM

    We have already seen what a shambles the Teals and the Greens are. The Greens are busy Voice Busting. The Teals split on various policies, so much so that they are virtually unpredictable. Steggall thinks that Albanese is worse than Morrison. The Xbench is currently delaying desperately needed IR reform to give unions and workers more power. Meanwhile, a certain ex Liberal politician has an AAD contract until 2033. Wanting more Niles, etc, for NSW parliament is the triumph of optimism over realism.

  7. Hello Boerwar. No way I’d ever vote for a Green. Their nutty policies on economic management, security and many other issues would be very dangerous for Australia, in the very unlikely event they ever got into power. As for Fred Nile, who is finally retiring this election, I find far-right religious conservatives just as repugnant as the Greens. I just want a government which is pragmatic and really fixes problems, has integrity, and has principles like fair and equal treatment for all, access to good health and education for all, and due regard for national security and sound economic management. Usually I think it’s the ALP which is closest to delivering that, but I need somewhere else to go if the ALP piss me off, as they sometimes do. So credible slightly leftish independents like Greg Piper, or maybe someone like Pocock in the senate, are my other option. Cheers

  8. the perottitproject of increasing taxsis buy replacing the once off stamp duty with a higher yearly land tax is hardly reform wanted to force it on evryone but decided only to use yung people helping to get the youth vote the gambling stuff hethis is what andrew wilkie tried it wont work whiy should evry one be restrickted from beting if they do not have a problim perottits bigest ishue is his inability to relate to ordinary people sort of like keating but the dam wall stunt when he said basickly he did not care about distruction of plants would help the teels

  9. minns does seem a populist do nothing leader though the only reason he is competative is thanks to the union strikes but perottits government seems tired if the gamblinggrenich seems like a liberal suporter

  10. the perottitproject of increasing taxsis buy replacing the once off stamp duty with a higher yearly land tax is hardly reform wanted to force it on evryone but decided only to use yung people helping to get the youth vote the gambling stuff hethis is what andrew wilkie tried it wont work whiy should evry one be restrickted from beting if they do not have a problim perottits bigest ishue is his inability to relate to ordinary people sort of like keating but the dam wall stunt when he said basickly he did not care about distruction of plants would help the teels this cashlis gaming card idea of grenich will do perottit no favers it seems his just a religis anti gambling campaigner triying to impose his own moral values

  11. “minns does seem a populist do nothing leader though the only reason he is competative is thanks to the union strikes ”

    @Aaron newton

    I thought it was John Barilaro creating a plum high paying job in the US as minister and then being appointed to the job himself that really sunk the NSW liberals in the polls. It has seemed that they have been down for a while since this scandel hit.

  12. it seems the union bosis gerard hayes waltin and smith along with secord desbite mckays caucis support used the media to put minns in as leader as he will do whatt the unions want i am a strong suporter of the unions but it seems the3 bbig unions that backed mins seem more interested in power in the party it self where is the awu pushing the feds for a gas reservation

  13. Do we know if sicora is still good friends with garith ward the susbended liberal mp he is a long termformer chieff off staff to out going mp shelley hancock andwas part of don harwins power base in sholhavin former facelis man to gladys

  14. I think McKay would have been far more electable as premier than Minns, I really have no idea what they were thinking when they replaced her. As if changing leaders would make the party suddenly more electable in the Hunter. A bit silly. As an IEU member I do not appreciate what he’s said about the teachers unions recently as well.

    Although I am happy they are bringing electricity renationalisation back into the political conversation.

  15. Oxley was also polled and if you believe the results it is almost but not quite in play – this assumes that a strong independent stands.
    Difficult to believe but if true big problems for the Nats

  16. Those Climate 200 surveys show a definite deterioration of the Coalition primary vote in their NSW state heartland seats. Definitely bad signs for next year’s election.

  17. Why Minns doesn’t support mandatory cashless gaming card when many seats in ALP heartland are in the 3 councils with highest pokies lost? Is he beholden to the Clubs and pubs ?

  18. whiy should evry pockies player be forced to be tracked with this cashlis gaming card whena lot of people just go to the pockies once in a while this is straight out of the crozby textor play book a dead catrob stokes ranting about pockies the same minister who egnored the independent gaming authority who said star was not fit to operate the barangeroo casino for the ritch the liberals decided to take it away from the authority and give it to st okes i see the libs mates who will use the casino at star or barangeroo can gamble as much as they like but your averige mum and dad will betreated like criminals

  19. isnt it funy that hipocrit tim costello with his moral language attacks labor for pockies this links splashed on the smh owned buy nine owned buy peter but tim the sepozid anti gambling crusaider did not defend gillard over her pockies changesand had no problim with hellin coonon being chair of crowns bord or the liberals doing evry thing in there power to help james packerhow ever when the liberals are likely to loose in a land slide yarin finkilstine convinces alix grinwich to make a dead cat out of the pockies to get the cristian vote and the greens join in

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