Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor in Victoria

Various happenings from the first official week of the Victorian state election campaign.

Three weeks out from the election, The Australian today has a Newspoll state poll for Victoria showing Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, in from 56-44 at the last such poll in August. Labor and the Coalition are tied at 37% on the primary vote, respectively down four and up one, with the Greens steady on 13%. Daniel Andrews is down three on approval to 51% and up three on disapproval to 44%, while Matthew Guy is respectively steady on 32% and up three to 52%. Daniel Andrews leads 52-33 on preferred premier, little changed from 51-34 last time. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1007.

The formal campaign period began with the issuing of the writs on Tuesday: enrolments close next Tuesday; nominations close on Friday (a day earlier for those endorsed by registered parties), with ballot paper draws to follow immediately after; early voting begins the following Monday, November 14; and the big day is November 26. Registration of parties closed last week, so the full list of eligible parties is here. My election guide is here – I hope for the Legislative Council guide to be added to it at some point over the weekend.

Further developments:

• There was a late retirement last week from Jaala Pulford, who holds a Legislative Council seat for Labor in Western Victoria region and was seat to lead the party’s ticket. There has been no specific reporting on what this might mean for the party ticket, but the Herald Sun reported Pulford’s place was likely to be taken by a female candidate of the Right, and in particular to one associated with Richard Marles.

• A report in the Herald Sun on October 13 noted discontent in some Labor quarters that recent spending commitments have focused on Melbourne’s outer east and south-east and have ignored the north and west. Those pushing the story expressed concern over Melton, Werribee, Point Cook, South Barwon, Bellarine and Yan Yean. In a similar vein, a report from Rachel Baxendale in The Australian on Wednesday cited unidentified Labor sources complaining that the northern and south-western corridors, which “probably need an additional new hospital each”, were being neglected to indulge Brunswick, where eight level crossings are being removed, and Bayswater, which has been targeted with commitments including a $60 million train station.

• Another Labor source, or possibly the same one, has briefed Kieran Rooney of the Herald Sun on preference negotiations with the Greens which would “sell out” the party’s own upper house members and “allies”, the latter seemingly referring to micro-party cross-benchers. Presumably the concern is that Labor’s own lower order candidates would be endangered if the party dealt itself out of negotiations with micro-parties for the sake of a deal with the Greens, the quid pro quo for which would be the Greens direct preferences to Labor in lower house seats. The report also speaks of “internal angst about the idea of preferencing the party in regional areas with coal and logging industries”.

• The contest for the outer western Melbourne seat of Melton is proving a source of particular fascination for the media, with a profile on the seat appearing in the Sunday Age and Virginia Trioli hosting a candidates’ forum on ABC Radio yesterday. The seat has traditionally been safe for Labor, but it dramatically bucked the trend at the 2018 election in recording a 6.9% two-party swing to the Liberals as voters abandoned both major parties for a huge field of independent and minor party contenders. Infrastructure has not kept up with growth in the area, and there is particular bitterness locally on lack of progress for a promised hospital. The strongest performing of the independents, Florey Institute brain scientist Ian Birchall, is again taking the field at this election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

201 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor in Victoria”

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  1. Kos posts on this site regularly.

    He uses a pseudonym.

    -don’t we all!

    I’ve been out campaigning all day, with my local candidate. Fabulous weather for it.

    The highlight was a climate change conspiracist who firmly believes Dan cloud seeded the recent (and on-going) floods in order to go and campaign there AND that the proposed buy back proposals are the next step in the government stealing your home from you. All part of the cloud seeding plot. His evidence is you see more planes now than you did during Covid.

    He also told me Climate Change and Covid are hoaxes. At that stage his wife rolled her eyes and dragged him away. I was disappointed really, I was just about to shape shift into a lizard and eat his eyeballs.

    A woman told me conspiratorially, and with a straight face, that the Greens caused Covid. What power they have!

    Enjoy the weather, everyone. Except you ******.

  2. Gorks .You are right. I haven’t been paying attention. Too much to digest. Pot holes, hospitals, dogs, train lines, half priced everything, no comment, nodding heads. And so it goes.
    I’ll save it till around 8pm on election night and just watch Anthony.

  3. The headline at 9 Entertainment re media and the call to introduce jail terms for journalists, which we are informed the government will consider given the recommendation coming from who it comes from, draws to question the need for a Royal Commission into media

    I understand that Rudd put a petition to the Federal Government, also supported by Turnbull

    The media is a Kangaroo Court, on one hand defending the sacking of the former NAB CEO by Essendon FC, calling the rape allegation a trial by media in defending the accused etc etc but on the other hand presuming Andrews guilty (of what exactly?) to besmirch his good name (before we get to the attack on his wife 10 years after an accident)

    The position the media takes is governed by the politics of the accused

    So a Pentecostal former CEO of a major bank (obviously Liberal because, simply, in those positions you are Liberal Party supporters – look at their Boards and the likes of Goodes) is defended

    The Hawthorn FC is defended – Kennett their President

    The individual defended in the alleged rape is a Liberal Party employee

    Andrews is an ALP Premier so attacked by innuendo in headlines

    We should not only be jailing “journalists”, we need a Royal Commission into media

  4. ‘2. Kos has to be taken with a grain of salt: he’s essentially talking his own book. He also has some weird ideas that mean he’s not as highly regarded in / tightly linked to Labor circles as you might think: he’s a gadfly, not a player.’

    Kos is interesting and doesn’t toe the party line, hence a ‘value adder’. As to the quality of his firm’s polling, who knows? Pay to see with a commission I guess.

  6. The people of Victoria don’t trust either party. Andrews over his handling of covid and lockdowns that crippled businesses, branch stacking saga and failed Labor promises. And Lib who helped pass the draconian laws, and weak their policies.

  7. The suggestion there might be 50 “independents” in Andrew’s seat shows an obvious abuse of process.

    If 50 individuals stand funded by the same organizations or individuals, with similar policies, then it is really just an end run around rules limiting each party to a single candidate. It is like branch stacking, only applied to candidates. Will all 50 campaign? Did they pay their fees from their own pockets?

    Regardless of outcome, deliberate attempts to confuse voters and manipulate outcomes should be regulated against.

  9. For all the Labor luvvies on this site that think Andrews is a popular leader, why doesn’t he have satisfaction rating in the 70’s like McGowan from WA? Now he is a popular leader unlike Andrew’s. In three weeks I’m guessing we still won’t know whether it’s minority or majority Labor government. It’s going to be that close on election night. Fascinating.

  10. It’s a race to the bottom between the Hun (Murdoch) and the Age (Costello) today.

    Age: “The campaign is turning ugly and personal – blame Labor
    The danger of attack dogs in an election ad campaign is that they can come back and bite. Hard.
    Neil Mitchell”

    Hun dead tree:

  12. There appears to be a direct correlation between The Age’s rightward drift and the employment of former Murdoch writers. Whether the company expected this is anyone’s guess, since they carry on about being independent of Costello (which is highly doubtful). There is a determined band on writers at The Age who are itching for Andrews to go, I won’t mention names but we know who they are. The Age surely has to tread a fine line here to not lose subscribers if they continue as a Lib cheer squad. Conservatives already have Murdoch for their daily dose of anti-Labor content who what market is The Age targeting? Andrews did IMO act too harshly at times during the pandemic with ridiculous on-the-spot fines etc. and well documented instances of police brutality. However, The Age is just using these sorts of things and others to remove a Labor Government. There are some positives thought because since The Age’s rightward shift many are looking to independent media instead. Where is The Age headed over the medium and long term if they become an actively pro-Lib publication competing for the same readership as The Oz and Herald Sun in the most progressive state in Australia?

  13. simm0888 @ #111 Sunday, November 6th, 2022 – 9:17 am

    There appears to be a direct correlation between The Age’s rightward drift and the employment of former Murdoch writers. Whether the company expected this is anyone’s guess, since they carry on about being independent of Costello (which is highly doubtful). There is a determined band on writers at The Age who are itching for Andrews to go, I won’t mention names but we know who they are. The Age surely has to tread a fine line here to not lose subscribers if they continue as a Lib cheer squad. Conservatives already have Murdoch for their daily dose of anti-Labor content who what market is The Age targeting? Andrews did IMO act too harshly at times during the pandemic with ridiculous on-the-spot fines etc. and well documented instances of police brutality. However, The Age is just using these sorts of things and others to remove a Labor Government. There are some positives thought because since The Age’s rightward shift many are looking to independent media instead. Where is The Age headed over the medium and long term if they become an actively pro-Lib publication competing for the same readership as The Oz and Herald Sun in the most progressive state in Australia?

    Surely you can’t be serious.Homer Eugene worked on The Oz for 25 years,how could he be possibly biased?
    I am serious and don’t call me Shirley

  14. Socrates says:
    Sunday, November 6, 2022 at 6:54 am
    The suggestion there might be 50 “independents” in Andrew’s seat shows an obvious abuse of process.

    If 50 individuals stand funded by the same organizations or individuals, with similar policies, then it is really just an end run around rules limiting each party to a single candidate. It is like branch stacking, only applied to candidates. Will all 50 campaign? Did they pay their fees from their own pockets?

    Regardless of outcome, deliberate attempts to confuse voters and manipulate outcomes should be regulated against.
    =====================================================================
    I agree with your last sentence; however extreme caution needs to be exercised to protect people’s democratic rights.
    There are a number of dangerous assumptions in your other comments:
    Does it really matter if a person’s candidacy is not self funded; or are you suggesting that the poor and underprivileged should not be allowed to stand; it does not matter who funds or contributes to an individual’s campaign as long as it is transparent to all at the time of the election.
    How would you limit the number of candidates with similar policies; who would decide how similar is too similar, and who would decide which one(s) can stand and which can not.
    Also, I have never heard of a rule restricting political parties to only one candidate per electorate; does such a rule really exist?

  15. I love how The Age have turned Andrews’ quote that he personally supports greater press freedom into a headline stating “Andrews won’t rule out jail time for journalists” just because he didn’t comment on somebody ELSE’s suggestion to toughen media laws.

    That’s just plainly misleading but really shows how far the quality of The Age’s journalism has sunk.

    It started as soon as Nine took over. Chris Uhlmann (ugh) was contributing a lot of really awfully biased articles leading up to the federal election, joining the Murdoch bullies in their game of “gotcha” with Albo. Now he’s handed the Liberal Party pom poms to Smethurst, Sakkal and Le Grand for the state election.

  16. @I am afraid you are right Trent. Contrast The Age’s anti Labor Victorian Government coverage with its reporting on the Liberal NSW Government. Sure its enthusiasm for Perrottet doesn’t match its enthusiasm for Berejiklian, but it treats the NSW Libs like a good friend. Remember the horror of Nine reporters when Berejiklian was being investigated, and how angry they were at the NSW ICAC for it.

  17. I remember an article in Crikey I think by Bernard Keane written at the time Nine took over Fairfax, predicting that despite claims of editorial independence the rot of Nine would soon infect the old Fairfax mastheads. That has proved to be 100% correct.

  18. In regards IBAC, as with the ATO, it is reliant on matters being referred to it

    Guy has even referred himself

    The branch stacking activities were referred by the Victorian Parliament, IBAC putting that this was “low hanging fruit” and that there is further investigation (into the Liberal Party, Bastiaan, Sukkar and Kevin Andrews as the start point)

    So in regards the matter now in the media, where a Draft Report has been provided to all parties for response, who did the referring?

    Noting that referral is a political tactic of the Liberal Party, their supporters and their media

    IF IBAC concludes there is criminal activity then IBAC refers the matter to the appropriate authorities

    Media accuse on the basis of a referral, presume guilt (of what?) and present their indignation and character assassination as their headline

    Based on a referral to IBAC by who and why?

    No wonder IBAC are calling for jail sentences to be legislated

    The media are a Kangaroo Court acting with political bias

  20. Lynchie
    I reckon Jeremy’s comment at 850 was evidence the criticism he receives on this blog have made him (??) desperate for attention.
    I think my cynicism about his allegiances is well founded. Add to that, no supposedly Green / progressive poster here would label Andrews, for all his failings, in such a way.
    To quote his hated Labor HQ, theme- ” It’s time. Yes it’s time”.

  21. This is what happens when you have an activist socialist government. Labor are going to take energy retail back into public hands and it scares the shit out of the ruling class. As for numb nuts Jeremy, the loon element love to slip the term corrupt into any description of Andrews. Just how and why he is ‘corrupt’ is never explained.

  23. Lynchpin says:
    Sunday, November 6, 2022 at 11:33 am
    William are you ok from a defamation point of view with Jeremy’s post at 8:50am?
    —
    It’s hardly defamatory. Jeremy is just a childish troll.

    Despite claiming to be the only one here with any actual insight, I highly doubt he even lives in Victoria. A large number of his ramblings over the past week have been posted around 3-4 am.

  25. Hi all, poll bludger is a blog about “polls” and the polls are trending away from Labor and it’s looking like a minority Labor government in three weeks. Also a fascinating election with interesting battles in many many electorates. Thanks to the many commentators that have taken considerable amounts of time to comment(usually derogatory) on me. Thankyou. I suspect a lot of you are fans of mine and for whatever reasons can’t bring yourselves to worship me. You have the wrong site. Try the “only fans” site. You will feel at home on that site as everyone worships me. Bit like how so many worship Dictator Dan on this site.

  28. Jeremy
    From one of your fans (not from your fan site revealed earlier this evening) but I’m not sure whether I’m a lifter or a leaner in your terms .
    Could you help and given you have repeatedly spruiked Vic Labor minority government coming up?
    I have backed Labor at $3.00 (unfortunately only $5000 bet at time) and numerous other $2.00 win, some majority and later Labor at $17 minority.
    Have I leaned on innocent corporate betting companies but albeit taken unders in overall? And does my Vic Labor betting get a pass in your eyes?

  29. clem attlee @ #121 Sunday, November 6th, 2022 – 1:36 pm

    This is what happens when you have an activist socialist government. Labor are going to take energy retail back into public hands and it scares the shit out of the ruling class. As for numb nuts Jeremy, the loon element love to slip the term corrupt into any description of Andrews. Just how and why he is ‘corrupt’ is never explained.

    Thanks Clem, well said. Although I would qualify, slightly, that they are social democrats, but whatever, all good from my point of view. Keep on with your insightful comments.

  31. Dr John. No such thing as an innocent corporate betting company. They prey on the weakest in society and give very little in return. However, personal freedoms of people like yourself(and me) that enjoy a punt shouldn’t be compromised. I do believe whips should be banned on racing horses, not to mention jumps as animal cruelty should never be allowed for the enjoyment of humans(l would consider voting AJP, however l enjoy a WAGU medium rare, free range steak. Not to mention bacon. mmmmmmmm, bacon) David Walsh is/was a professional gambler and we would all be the poorer without his contribution of MONA. Looks like your betting on the election, getting Labor @ 3.0 and minority Lab @ 17.0 are extremely impressive. Dr John, do you think Labor party and Dictator Dan are the angels many posters on here make them out to be. Dan can’t do no wrong. Now that’s pretty sad.

  32. “lifters” are anyone that gives life a cracking hot go.
    “leaners” are, I’m being a little presumptuous here but I’d say posters on this site that give nothing to society and expect handouts in return. Stop having a whinge and help yourselves.

  33. Jeremy
    I once observed David Walsh and his then casino blackjack card counting team at Jupiters Casino one morning many years ago. It was exciting knowing who they were and waiting for them to be turfed out by security.
    Dan goes OK only brought down a peg or 2 by corrupt media.

  34. Jeremy says:
    Sunday, November 6, 2022 at 8:42 pm
    “lifters” are anyone that gives life a cracking hot go.
    “leaners” are, I’m being a little presumptuous here but I’d say posters on this site that give nothing to society and expect handouts in return. Stop having a whinge and help yourselves.
    —
    OK Joe Hockey.

  35. Dr John. Do you think the same as others on this site about me? Pack mentality on this site, you concur? Do you think l am a loon and am numb nuts. Can’t disagree with the childish comment. Children have so much more fun than adults, especially the sad “leaner” adults. I’d prefer to have fun and be a “lifter” than have my hand out for charity. Dr John, have a good night.

  36. I know of plenty of ‘lifters’ whom have had a ‘cracking hot go’ at the expense of others including tax payers.
    Actually lifters are actually often leaners.

  37. Concur Dr John. A lot that believe they are “lifters” are often despicable humans ripping off their fellow humans. Anyone who is corrupt, rorts the system or takes advantages of others is definitely not a “lifter”. l suppose that makes Dan Andrews a “leaner”. No wonder many on this site worship him. Just like themselves.

  38. I hate the term lifters and leaners. But if I had to define them, a “lifter” is someone who supports paying higher tax rates to give back to the society they earned their income in. It can also be someone who is underpaid and undervalued while contributing their time to lift someone else’s wealth or provide an essential service.

    “Leaners” are those who try to minimise the tax they pay back to the society who gave them their wealth in the first place, or those who profit off others’ hard work, and rely on methods like underpaying staff and tax minimisation to accrue wealth.

    Most on here don’t seem to fit that definition of a “leaner”.

    Really though, the entire terminology of “lifters” and “leaners” should just be banned from usage as it’s ignorant and reprehensible.

  39. I see that The Age has now had to follow up its misleading headline that Dan “won’t rule out jailing journalists” with a new one clarifying that Labor did in fact rule that out and rejected the commission’s request to introduce such legislation.

    They must be annoyed that their latest attempted smear went nowhere.

  45. One week till early voting. So the next week we should be bombarded by the candidates. Also Dr John, one week to get our bets on before the exit polls makes the bookies odds more accurate and beating their margin so much harder. Dr John, money to be made. Minority Labor still way way overs with sportsbet. What an election with about 40 of the 88 seats being somewhat competitive. Fascinating.

  46. Grimes, Religion is abhorrent In my opinion. Can’t believe grown adults believe in sky fairies. Liberal party are so so much worse than Labor with infiltration of religious freaks and one of the reasons l detest them even more than Labor. Labor is no cleanskin with their record on sucking up to the religious lobby. All the taxpayers money given to religious schools, remember Penny Wong voting against same sex marriage, catholic Church richest organisation in world getting charity status etc etc. And don’t get me started on the “shoppies” union holding Labor back on progressive issues. Those that criticise Liberal for the infiltration of religious freaks l applaud, but also criticise your own party. Or is it Labor can do no bad
    Sleepwalking into……

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