Three weeks out from the election, The Australian today has a Newspoll state poll for Victoria showing Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, in from 56-44 at the last such poll in August. Labor and the Coalition are tied at 37% on the primary vote, respectively down four and up one, with the Greens steady on 13%. Daniel Andrews is down three on approval to 51% and up three on disapproval to 44%, while Matthew Guy is respectively steady on 32% and up three to 52%. Daniel Andrews leads 52-33 on preferred premier, little changed from 51-34 last time. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1007.
The formal campaign period began with the issuing of the writs on Tuesday: enrolments close next Tuesday; nominations close on Friday (a day earlier for those endorsed by registered parties), with ballot paper draws to follow immediately after; early voting begins the following Monday, November 14; and the big day is November 26. Registration of parties closed last week, so the full list of eligible parties is here. My election guide is here – I hope for the Legislative Council guide to be added to it at some point over the weekend.
Further developments:
• There was a late retirement last week from Jaala Pulford, who holds a Legislative Council seat for Labor in Western Victoria region and was seat to lead the party’s ticket. There has been no specific reporting on what this might mean for the party ticket, but the Herald Sun reported Pulford’s place was likely to be taken by a female candidate of the Right, and in particular to one associated with Richard Marles.
• A report in the Herald Sun on October 13 noted discontent in some Labor quarters that recent spending commitments have focused on Melbourne’s outer east and south-east and have ignored the north and west. Those pushing the story expressed concern over Melton, Werribee, Point Cook, South Barwon, Bellarine and Yan Yean. In a similar vein, a report from Rachel Baxendale in The Australian on Wednesday cited unidentified Labor sources complaining that the northern and south-western corridors, which “probably need an additional new hospital each”, were being neglected to indulge Brunswick, where eight level crossings are being removed, and Bayswater, which has been targeted with commitments including a $60 million train station.
• Another Labor source, or possibly the same one, has briefed Kieran Rooney of the Herald Sun on preference negotiations with the Greens which would “sell out” the party’s own upper house members and “allies”, the latter seemingly referring to micro-party cross-benchers. Presumably the concern is that Labor’s own lower order candidates would be endangered if the party dealt itself out of negotiations with micro-parties for the sake of a deal with the Greens, the quid pro quo for which would be the Greens direct preferences to Labor in lower house seats. The report also speaks of “internal angst about the idea of preferencing the party in regional areas with coal and logging industries”.
• The contest for the outer western Melbourne seat of Melton is proving a source of particular fascination for the media, with a profile on the seat appearing in the Sunday Age and Virginia Trioli hosting a candidates’ forum on ABC Radio yesterday. The seat has traditionally been safe for Labor, but it dramatically bucked the trend at the 2018 election in recording a 6.9% two-party swing to the Liberals as voters abandoned both major parties for a huge field of independent and minor party contenders. Infrastructure has not kept up with growth in the area, and there is particular bitterness locally on lack of progress for a promised hospital. The strongest performing of the independents, Florey Institute brain scientist Ian Birchall, is again taking the field at this election.
Former ALP powerbroker and SE Metro MLC Adem Somyurek will be the DLP lead candidate in Northern Metro. The upper house is a rotating circus. Here are the changes from 2018:
Eastern Metro: Renamed to NE Metro, Mary Wooldridge (LIB) replaced mid-term, Bruce Atkinson (LIB) isn’t running again
Eastern Victoria: Edward O’Donohue (LIB) replaced mid-term, his replacement Cathrine Burnett-Wake (LIB) lost pre-selection, Jane Garrett (ALP) passed away
Northern Metro: Jenny Mikakos (ALP) replaced mid-term, Nazih Elasmar (ALP) isn’t running again, Craig Ondarchie (LIB) lost pre-selection
Northern Victoria: Mark Gepp (ALP) isn’t running again
SE Metro: Gavin Jennings (ALP) replaced mid-term, Adem Somyurek (ALP) expelled and now running for DLP in Northern Metro, Gordon Rich-Phillips (LIB) isn’t running again
Southern Metro: Philip Dalidakis (ALP) replaced mid-term, his replacement Enver Erdogan (ALP) is contesting Northern Metro, Nina Taylor (ALP) is contesting Albert Park
Western Metro: Kaushaliya Vaghela (ALP) is now contesting for her new party New Democrats, Bernie Finn (LIB) was expelled and is contesting for DLP, Catherine Cumming (DHJP) left the party and is contesting for Angry Victorians
Western Victoria: Jaala Pulford (ALP) isn’t running again
The upper house is horrendous. Thanks ALP. They’ve had the chances to change it.
First Bernie Finn, now Adem Somyurek. The absolute dross that gravitates to the DLP is amusing to see.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-07/religious-right-roadmap-infiltrate-liberal-party/101611840
Religious right roadmap to Liberal Party control revealed as internal ructions over church groups increase
By Charlotte King and Andy Burns for ABC Regional Investigations
Posted 3h ago
A roadmap outlining how the religious right can “infiltrate” the Liberal Party with “Good Godly” candidates has been linked to a controversial former Liberal candidate and current member of the party’s state assembly in Victoria.
Peter Killin made headlines in 2019 as the former Liberal candidate for the federal seat of Wills and was forced to resign over comments he made about homosexuality.
In a submission to the former federal government’s 2018 inquiry into religious freedom, Mr Killin endorsed the views of Presbyterian pastor Campbell Markham, who wrote in 2011 that the “homosexual lifestyle” was “distressingly dangerous” and had “appalling health risks”.
Mr Killin also decried the election of “homosexual MP” Tim Wilson.
The roadmap, a version of which has been circulating online and on Twitter without attribution, shows a comprehensive strategy to gain control of Liberal Party branches and influence the choice of candidates.
somethinglikethat
Amusing but unsurprising.
Meanwhile had the privilege of seeing a campaign ad by Matthew Guy.
Free school lunches and 2 dollar train fares.
Is that the best he can do after all these years in opposition. Sheesh.
Leroy
Thanks for linking the story.
Free school lunches is a brilliant policy if done right. A very socialist policy though. Those on here should love it, but won’t because ALP opppse it. $2 public transport. Just make it free.
Somethinglikethat, totally agree with you on the politicians DLP attract. Worse than Libs and Labor politicians.
Vote Independent and Green.
The worst thing about the Liberals’ campaign is that it’s insulting to our intelligence.
A reasonable person knows that in a growing city, public transport not only needs to be maintained but improved and expanded. More accessible, convenient and frequent service increases ridership more than cheaper fares. But improved service costs money, and cutting fares to $2 is basically a confirmation that the Liberal Party will not invest anything into growing or improving – or possibly even maintaining – the public transport system.
Thinking the population are too stupid to understand that is insulting.
While both parties have been promising a lot of money – and the lazy media are portraying both as being the same or comparable – there is a huge difference in what is being promised.
Most of Labor’s election pledges are very targeted and forward thinking. Most of the Liberals’ election pledges are nothing more than a cash handout with no long term benefits.
In 30-40 years’ time, Victoria will be no better off as a result of $2 fares, in fact probably worse off. But the state will be better off by having a suburban rail loop as part of a wider strategy to increase mid-rise development in selected middle-suburban hubs to contain population growth to established areas, slow outer suburban sprawl, connect the train lines to each other as well as hospitals & universities, and create walkable, vibrant middle suburban neighbourhoods full of jobs & amenities.
The cost-benefit analyses that question its benefit are missing the broader picture and only looking at it from a public transport and job creation point of view, not how it will help meet the target of containing 70% of new housing development to established suburbs (a measure we are failing miserably at).
Similarly, purchasing 8 state art of the art scanners that will make an enormous difference to the treatment of serious diseases and cancers will have much more impact on the health system than giving away $500 vouchers.
The Liberals’ thinking is just so short term. There’s no investment in the future whatsoever, and while short term solutions are also needed, there is no thought about what the long term consequences of their short term solutions may be.
Oh, and the biggest problem with the health system – nationally, it is not a Victorian issue – is staffing. The Liberals are yet to announce anything that meaningfully addresses the core issue.
Trent. You ramble a lot, please keep posts shorter and more precise. Andrews has had eight years to fix health. He hasn’t. Will Libs? Probably not. With Greens and independents in minority with Labor this will force Labor’s hand. Free public transport brilliant presuming money isn’t ripped out of maintenance, improvements etc etc. Rail loop biggest white elephant I’ve ever seen. Electrify Melton, Geelong. Sure, cherry pick best bits of rail loop but, $150,000,000,000.00!!!!!!
That is 150 BILLION. And we all know that’ll blow out under Labor.
I am quite bemused by The Age and its apparent editorial stance. I wonder if the editorial staff ever look over the comments on the Victorian political articles. Those comments seem, to me, to favour Labor and Andrews heavily.
I also wonder if The Age will maintain its stance all the way through to the election. Or will it, at the last second, hedge its bets and have an editorial along the lines of: “There may be unanswered questions about Andrews and Labor especially in terms of governance, but as a government they have some success on the board. Therefore, with some trepidation, we suggest the Labor government should be returned.”
ag0044 I have been wondering the same about The Age.
The relentless attacks on the Andrews government make it seem like it would be very difficult for their editorial to recommending returning Labor. However, can they really recommend the Liberals? On what basis would they do so, and would they possibly risk a huge loss of subscribers if such a move just confirmed them to be a second Herald Sun now.
I’m guessing they will go one of two possible ways:
1. Exactly what you said, write an editorial that basically continues their attack on the Andrews government but “reluctantly” suggests their return on the basis of there being no alternative; or
2. Write that they are disillusioned with both and hope for a minority government to “reset” Victorian politics or something along those lines.
There’s no question about what the Herald Sun’s editorial will be, but I’m extremely curious to see which way The Age go.
Kevin Bonham –
Freshwater Strategy Vic (state) ALP 37 L-NP 34 Green 14 others 15
2PP 56-44 to Labor.
That Freshwater poll, with its big drop in Labor’s vote compared to the last election, might be worrying for Labor if it weren’t for the coalition’s vote falling as well.
Combined with the Newspoll at the top of this article, it looks like a comfortable win for Labor, but the talk of a bigger landslide than last time might have been exaggerated.
Trent says:
Monday, November 7, 2022 at 10:25 am
ag0044 I have been wondering the same about The Age.
—
The Age is a dried out husk of what it once was. Having said that, if you were an editor there, you just know that the paper can’t publish an editorial like “Vote for Dan, since most of you will anyway”.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/divisive-but-still-popular-andrews-lead-slips-liberals-stall-20221106-p5bvww
Daniel Andrews’ Victorian Labor government will lose three to five seats at the November 26 election but will narrowly hold power as support for Liberal leader Matthew Guy stalls.
A poll of over 1,000 Victorian voters conducted between November 3 and 6 for The Australian Financial Review by Freshwater Strategy, found Labor’s primary vote has fallen six points from the 2018 state election
The result puts Labor-held seats such as Hawthorn, Nepean and Ashwood in play for the Liberals, but they will struggle to make much ground as they face threats from the teals in Caulfield, Brighton and Kew.
somethinglikethat @ #153 Monday, November 7th, 2022 – 9:19 am
I’m old enough to have witnessed my parents and their parents total disgust that the Santamaria DLP broke with the workers and preferenced anybody but the ALP keeping Labor off the front benches for years.
The DLP through the Catholic church used the church influence to basically instruct the catholic workers to vote DLP against their own judgement of what was better for them and their families.These lordly commands from the Archbishops wrought havoc on families and like the American civil war turned brothers against brothers,sons against fathers and in my opinion started the rot in the church to where it stands today.In other words what happened in the 50s is now happening with the penticostals moving in to the vacuum if you like left by the catholic breakdown of their authority.
Wollondilly calling.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DQfdX7Z6__o
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/nov/06/discontent-in-melbournes-west-is-seeing-labors-rivals-getting-ready-to-shake-the-partys-stronghold
Headline from the Hun – for what it’s worth:
I can’t read it because it’s pay-walled but when I hover over the link on the front page it also mentions Jess Wilson (Kew) and David Southwick (Caulfield) in the URL.
Anyone a Herald Sun subscriber that can provide any polling numbers the article might contain?
Here is the entire relevant section (very little to go, its purely rumours). There are more sections but they are on unrelated rumours.
Remember, internal poll stories only exist because someone wants you to think they are true.
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/state-election/backroom-baz-polling-puts-john-pesutto-jess-wilson-and-david-southwick-in-trouble/news-story/c69f30dc745842d8e0fd4fec1859325f
Backroom Baz: Polling puts John Pesutto, Jess Wilson and David Southwick in trouble
He’s their great hope for the future but polling spies say John Pesutto is among the big name Liberals facing an election fight.
Backroom Baz
3 min read
November 7, 2022 – 8:00AM
Ask an MP about polling and they’ll always say they take no notice.
But Baz reckons there are plenty taking notice of latest Liberal polling spies are showing worrying things in blue riband seats of Hawthorn, Caulfield and Kew.
Baz understands latest data shows all three seats are on a knife’s edge – meaning John Pesutto’s hope of regaining his seat of Hawthorn could soon be over, and Jess Wilson could struggle to take the Kew seat being vacated by Tim Smith.
Meanwhile, the party would be left to find a new deputy if David Southwick loses his seat of Caulfield.
Despite early fears to the contrary, it’s understood the polling is showing Brad Roswell in Sandringham and James Newbury in Brighton could both be safe, despite challenges from Teal independents.
Interesting, thanks for posting! I agree too that “leaked” internal polling usually has an ulterior motive.
A few blind guesses.
Brighton – toss up with the Liberals ahead of the ALP
Sandringham – Liberal hold
Caulfield – toss up with the ALP ahead of the Liberals
Hawthorn – toss up with the ALP ahead of the Liberals
Kew – toss up with the Teal ahead of the Liberals
Labor have been fancying their chances in Caulfield for a while.
John Kennedy has been a great member for Hawthorn and very much engaged with the community.
Wouldnt surprise me if the seat was favouring Labor at this stage.
I’m not a political expert but it seems to me that the Greens should preference the Coalition if they want to have pull in the new parliament.
The Herald-Sun should surely be giving us an editorial about how the terrible scourge of African Youth Gangs has plagued every Victorian ever since the 2018 election when they and the Liberals (including Peter Dutton) warned us about them!
If Pesutto can’t win in Hawthorn, there is zero chance the Libs will get over the line elsewhere to form govt. Zero.
Hawthorn is so tricky. The hardest part for the Liberals is that their primary vote was 43.89 last time, and they still lost. Nobody in any electorate in the May Federal election had a higher primary vote and lost. Only 5 in 2018 State election had a higher primary vote and lost, and 3 of them only had ALP LIB GRN on the ballot. For them to increase their primary vote in this environment would be a herculean task, especially when there was no serious independent on the ballot in 2018. Coalition will need 45% primary to be in with a shot in almost any seat, and not even that guarantees them the seat. There will be some exceptions though, like 2018 South-West Coast still having a margin of 2.3 on a primary of 32.4!
Trent
Usually an ulterior motive that benefits those releasing the polling..
Is Jeremy one of those malicious Voice Busters?
Monbulk is a seat yet to be mentioned, I don’t know if the Liberals are running a big campaign here but they definitely should be. The seat has undergone boundary changes and is made up of parts of 3 different Federal seats, all of which are Liberal. The retiring MP is the high profile James Merlino, who has held the seat for 20 years beating redistributions with swings to him.
will marline kairouz follow and vagelle kairouz is like somyureks number two if labor was so bad whiy did somyurek stay in the party for 20 years and serve in cabenit given he clearly has no labor values and just cares about power
The two party result last election was 57.3% to Labor; black gangs did not go down well in Victoria. Polls have the result at around 56% to Labor. Hawthorn was a surprise win for labor last election. If Labor loses Hawthorn at this election it signifies very little, attacking Andrews is a better campaign strategy, than attacking blacks might be about it.
If Labor wins Hawthorn, well, with the AGE and Herald Sun continual attack Labor got another Land slide win, that matter.
Poll is wrong, The coalition isn’t doing this well. I predict 57-43 for Labor at the end
On the ground in Hawthorn, there are also a lot of signs for Teal independent Melissa Lowe. She one of the few independents to have raised significant cash but nowhere near what Ryan ended up spending ($2.2 million) in the federal election.
The ALP did not expect to win the seat last time nor expected to hold it this time but Kennedy has been a good member and will put in a good showing. There is little evidence of his campaign other than I saw them out in Glenferrie a few weekends ago.
The Green is a non-event of the “bicycle” faction of the party – he wants more spending on bike paths which is not a vote winner for the majority who don’t ride. Given they actually polled 18% last time, I would have thought they might made more of an effort.
The Liberal is the former member John Pesutto who is generally viewed as leadership material and probably would have been leader after the last election if he had retained his seat. He is a much more moderate Liberal than Guy. If he is to win but the Liberals lose without making major gains he might get the job this time.
“Monique Ryan sounds a note of caution. “Yes, John is a charming fellow,” she says, sitting in her Camberwell office. “I’ve stood on pre-poll with him for 12 hours a day and gotten to know him – he’s a genuinely nice man. But his ‘African gangs’ fear-mongering? We’re defined by our actions.
“There’s a reason why he got voted out,” she says. “To see him as the great white hope of the Liberal Party, that doesn’t speak too well for the rest of the talent in that Liberal Party.”
Pesutto was shadow attorney-general during Matthew Guy’s disastrous 2018 campaign focused on law and order, and specifically on a string of gang attacks by young people born in Africa. Guy was supported by Pesutto, who warned Victoria was enduring “one of the worst periods of gang violence our state has perhaps ever seen”.”
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/will-hawthorn-go-back-to-blue-remain-red-or-could-teal-lightning-strike-again-20221017-p5bqel.html
The Freshwater Poll, as reported by Kevin Bonham, merely suggests that the ALP 2PP vote is within a small whisker of the 2018 result.
It may lead to a minor loss of a marginal seat or two or it could deliver a seat or two to the ALP.
Despite a couple of comments, I don’t think the ALP would be particularly concerned with such polling or a less of a couple of marginal seats.
Mornington is another seat where the Liberals might be in trouble to the Independent. It is basically an inner east seat, just on the Mornington peninsula and the teal has raised significant cash too.
The problem with the current polling is not that Labor might have to form a minority government; to reform the Liberal’s need another solid thrashing, to fix the Liberals another Labor win is probable not enough, the religious nutters will believe they can steal the Liberal party and still win, given time.
@Justin, Monbulk may take in parts of Aston, Casey and La Trobe, which are all held by the Liberals, but every both in the electorate, save 4 small rural booths (Macclesfield, Silvan, Gembrook and Montrose South) were won by Labor, and most were 55+ to Labor, at the Federal election.
The Conservative voters who won those Federal seats for the Libs are found within Rowville (Aston), Evelyn (Casey) and Berwick/Pakenham (La Trobe) not Monbulk. Monbulk is a progressive seat that should be retained by Labor, possibly with a small swing against it due to the loss of Merlino’s personal vote. Having said that, the west of the seat have lost Nick Wakeling’s personal vote and the east Brad Battin’s, both long serving MPs, so it may balance out.
Monbulk is the sort of seat the Liberals would be winning if they were going to win the election.
According to the media headlines, the Pandemic is still with us
Who would have thought
But still we have the criticism of Public Health Authorities and the governments which followed their advice across the last 2 and a half years (noting when a vaccine was developed and distributed)
For party political purposes – exclusively
Those critical for perceived party political advantage seem to conveniently overlook that we had a National Cabinet during those dark times
Mind you all media focus on is hard luck stories, stories which are not consistent with anyone we associate with
Medical practices insist on patients wearing masks, dentists wear masks
And across society some continue to wear masks
“Freedom”, hey?
But what does “freedom” lead to, what is the consequence because every action leads to a reaction
I also hear the monies appropriated to certain Unions were appropriate for staff training programmes focussing on work place safety
Perhaps the funds should have been appropriated to Company Directors, to be later joined on Company Balance Sheets by “JOBkeeper”
Unions consist of people, people who in the main act to the benefit of their fellow workers
Noting they were the subject of various Royal Commissions including the so called Banking RC which targeted Industry Superannuation Funds
it is not a good sing for mathew guy that john pasuto is pitching him self to horthorn and the liberal party with his wewont win unles we change as chalinging guy it seems pasuto does not want to be an mp but leaderhave not heard of many times where a candadate is undermining there leader during a campaign plus when it cames to votes desbite his image he actualy agrees with guy on most policies like his religis discrimination stants
You’re right Aaron. Pesutto has a shiny image at the moment because he is remembered for taking his loss on live TV with grace 4 years ago, and is presenting himself as the opposite of Guy, but his voting record says otherwise. He’s really no different, he just presents better.
Over 600 lower house candidates on the ballot, as Family First are running a full slate having not run at all in 2018. Animal Justice also running a full slate. Minimum of 5 candidates in every electorate.
Haven’t seen Family First on a lower house ballot in a long time. Looks like I’ll be putting the Liberals second last!
ABC currently has for lower house: 88 ALP, 88 GRN, 87 FFV, 86 AJP, 83 LIB, 74 IND, 32 FPV, 22 VS, 11 NAT, 10 DLP, 8 RP, 7 LDP, 5 PHON, 5 SFF, 4 ND, 3 HAP, 1 CPP
Trent says:
Monday, November 7, 2022 at 10:25 pm
Haven’t seen Family First on a lower house ballot in a long time. Looks like I’ll be putting the Liberals second last!
Ditto. But third last for me.
1. Green.
2. ALP
3. AJP
4. Vic Socialists
5. Assorted loons
6. LNP
7. Fam First
8. One Nation
New thread.