The post-budget Newspoll finds Labor’s two-party lead at 55-45, in from 57-43 at the previous poll eight weeks ago. Both major parties are up on the primary vote, Labor by one to 38% and the Coalition by four to 35%. All other players are down: the Greens by two to 11%, One Nation by one to 6%, the United Australia Party by one to 1% and all others by one to 9%. Anthony Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister has slipped from 61-22 to 54-27, and he is down two on approval to 59% and up four on disapproval to 33%. Peter Dutton is up on both approval and disapproval, respectively by four points to 39% and three points to 46%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1500.
The poll also includes the same suite of questions on response to the budget that Newspoll has been posing since the late 1980s, which you can read about here – I’ll have more to say about those later. Note also the other new posts below this one – my own lengthy compendium of New South Wales state election news, and Adrian Beaumont’s coverage of Brazil’s presidential election and other international electoral events.
UPDATE (Resolve Strategic): Now there is a Resolve Strategic poll from the Age/Herald, with stronger results for Labor: their primary vote is unchanged on the poll three weeks ago at 39%, with the Coalition up two to 32%, the Greens up one to 13%, One Nation down one to 4%, the United Australia Party down two to 1%, independents down one to 8% and others up one to 3%. Anthony Albanese leads Peter Dutton by 53-19 as preferred prime minister, in from 55-17 three weeks ago. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1611.
The budget was rated good for “the country as a whole” by 44% and for “me and my household” by 28%, compared with 50% and 40% respectively for the March budget – it’s not clear how many of the remainder particularly rated it as bad. Four options for action on power prices all received strong support: 79% for price caps, 59% for taxpayer subsidies for those on low incomes, 64% for heavily subsidising home solar power and 67% for reserving gas for the local market, with 3%, 14%, 11% and 4% respectively opposed. Thirty-six per cent considered Labor had broken promises to “cut power bills and get wages moving”, with 12% disagreeing and 53% either undecided or considering it too early to say.
UPDATE (Newspoll budget response): For the questions Newspoll asks after every budget, an even 29% rated it both good and bad for the economy, but 47% rated it negative for personal impact compared with only 12% for positive. Thirty-four per cent felt the opposition would have done a better job, with 48% disagreeing. Another question gauged the extent to which respondents felt the budget properly balanced the cost of living and the budget deficit: 6% felt it put too much emphasis on the former, 25% too much emphasis on the latter, 23% felt it struck the right balance and 31% felt it didn’t do enough for either.
This marks the thirty-sixth budget of which Newspoll has asked essentially the same set of questions going back to 1988. The results are the sixth worst for personal impact and the ninth worst for economic impact, although it rates in the middle of the pack on the question of whether the opposition would have done better. The latter point is illustrated by the first of the charts below, which records Labor budgets in red and Coalition budgets in blue. The second chart illustrates the correlation between positive results on personal and economic impact. In landing right on the trendline, this shows no particular sense that the budget favoured either economic concerns or personal finances relative to its somewhat negative reception overall.
“phoenixRED says:
Monday, October 31, 2022 at 9:36 am
NOW: Jimmy Kimmel calls Elon Musk a “Fully-Formed Piece of Shit” after spreading the Paul Pelosi conspiracy.”…
Heavy taxation is the best remedy for that kind of shit, and if they move their operations overseas, increase the tax rate even more for the right to commercially operate in the country.
At best, Mr Musk is a loose cannon. To expand the metaphor, with his purchase of Twitter his range has grown, suddenly, and now reaches billions, intimately, as often as his whims like. This is many orders of magnitude more people than merely those who like his products. If he continues firing crap into the world the world will turn on him. (I’m reminded of a recent article in the Guardian about billionaires and their egos. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/28/elon-musk-twitter-disaster )
Here’s the problem. Data and the internet. Anonymity, and without it, data harvesting. And Bots and the Twitterverse.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/oct/31/online-age-verification-system-could-create-honeypot-of-personal-data-and-pornography-viewing-habits-privacy-groups-warn
Late Riser @ #102 Monday, October 31st, 2022 – 9:49 am
At best, he’s the guy who single handedly has probably kept Ukraine from being bombed out shit show, with StarLink. I don’t think his purchase has expanded his range (if you mean access to people), as given him access to opportunities still untapped. For better or worse.
Alpo @ #100 Monday, October 31st, 2022 – 9:41 am
And a win for the Amazon and the Amazonian tribes.
B.S. Fairman @ #98 Monday, October 31st, 2022 – 9:37 am
Absolutely correct. The lie got its pants on before the truth got up. 😐
P1
“ The article is primarily a refutation of Dutton’s statement that “The technology doesn’t yet exist at the scale that is needed to store renewable energy for electricity to be reliable at night, or during peak periods. That is just the scientific reality.”
The Coalition don’t do reality. In fact at most, they think scalable renewables and storage might be coming, they have no idea it’s here and growing. They’re so out of touch.
A communications platform used by military personnel and Australian Defence department public servants has been hit by a ransomware attack.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-31/defence-department-ransomware-attack-forecenet-australia/101596230
Ven and Socrates
Makes me wonder if this isn’t the AUKUS interim answer to the proposed nuclear submarines that can’t and won’t be built for years, the capability (partly) is simply deliverable by air rather than sea. Of course there are several roles and capabilities that submarines can undertake that can’t be accomplished by bombers but the net nuclear effect at least is achieved.
Let’s just hope that the new government, that appears to have been lumped with this fait accompli, can manage the ramifications as well as the challenges. In terms of geo-politics, this bucket of shite makes the trillion dollar debt, interest rates and inflation look like small change in comparison. Anybody get the sense we’ve been rail-roaded?
ItzaDream,
Yes, you’re right about Starlink’s use to defend Ukraine. I needed reminding. Thank you. 🙂 But disinformation (deliberate lying) bothers me. His naive defense this morning of a lie is dangerous. His impulsive stupidity angered me. His scope has grown. People will respond.
Pat Hudsons Budget Reply Cartoon – cartoon of the year????:
Now we find out if Bolsonaro loves himself more than he loves his country. Will he concede or will he cry foul like his gutless, wimpy US mate?
Driving to the shops this morning, I caught the news on local commercial radio 4BH.
Newspoll shows that “the Coalition continues to gain ground *over* Labor”, apparently.
Who woulda thunk it?
I love the representation of littleproud minion!
Lula it is …
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/oct/31/brazil-election-live-lula-faces-bolsonaro-in-second-round-amid-fears-of-voter-suppression
“Bellwether says:
Monday, October 31, 2022 at 10:22 am
Now we find out if Bolsonaro loves himself more than he loves his country. Will he concede or will he cry foul like his gutless, wimpy US mate?”
His natural tendency would definitely be to do a Trump… But in Brazil I would expect the military to decide what’s going to happen next. Some top generals’ phone calls to Bolsonaro telling him that he should accept the result of the vote and piss off, should suffice.
JenAuthor
Several of our cartoonists have latched on to Littleproud’s eyes being quite close together and by no means central in his spectacles.
Alpo @ #116 Monday, October 31st, 2022 – 10:27 am
But aren’t they mates with Bolsonaro, being a former military commander himself?
Electoral authority calls election for Lula
Brazil’s electoral authority has called the runoff for leftist Lula da Silva, which means he has won presidential election, defeating far-right incumbent Bolsonaro.
This is the most important result in decades for one of the world’s largest democracies –and for the future of the Amazon and the planet.
(Per The Guardian)
With Abetz leading the push against a republic, The Australian Monarchist League (50,000 members) must have a death wish.
________________________________________
As for Newspoll, not a bad result in the wake of a budget based in the main on fiscal responsibility. And in his budget reply speech, Dutton’s dulcet tones gave the impression that he’s now a sharing & caring alternative PM, moderately reflected in Newspoll. In truth, he’s cunning & ruthless, thinking the top gig is his birthright. He should accordingly not be underestimated by his opponents.
This is the most important result in decades for one of the world’s largest democracies –and for the future of the Amazon and the planet.
Now it’s up to America in the Mid Terms.
“Electoral authority calls election for Lula
Brazil’s electoral authority has called the runoff for leftist Lula da Silva, which means he has won presidential election, defeating far-right incumbent Bolsonaro.”…
It’s over…. South America is now the epicentre of international Social Democratic change…
Hoping for some trickling down in the US mid-term elections, and then some better results in Europe (including for the UK Labour).
Dismantling the failed Neoliberalism is not going to be easy or fast… but it can be done!!
Mavis @ #120 Monday, October 31st, 2022 – 10:31 am
Yes, the thing that really pisses me off about Dutton is his log cabin reflection of his humble childhood, when he comes from a family who sat at the top table of Queensland politics! Wasn’t his grandfather a former Queensland Premier?
Snap! Alpo. 🙂
Ven says:
Monday, October 31, 2022 at 9:05 am
”
Cronussays:
Monday, October 31, 2022 at 7:45 am
Holdenhillbilly
“ just 10 parsecs, or about 33 light-years”
Another example of learning something new every day, cheers.
”
Cronus
We urgently need a wormhole or two to find out earth like planets because it is looking increasingly likely we might have passed the inflection point of reversing the effects of Climate change.
———————————————————————————————
Agreed, but a challenge for our younger folk I suspect. We’re unlikely to slow down CC in sufficient time it seems so other planets are actually starting to look slightly more realistic. Anything a few parsecs closer though would be handy, and don’t get me started on wormholes (chuckles).
JenAuthor says:
Monday, October 31, 2022 at 10:24 am
I love the representation of littleproud minion!
Sussssan is my pick…crazy!
Speaking of the Mid Terms in America, here’s President Obama with the fire in his belly in Wisconsin campaigning for Mandela Barnes for the Senate:
https://youtu.be/61SZX-bGuN8
The West Australian reports today that State Liberal Party president Richard Wilson, elected as a man the reform the remnants of the division , is leaving to pursue a new job which is said to involve extensive travel.
On his way out he has fired both barrels at the factions and individuals who he says are still up to their old tricks.
An accompanying story details how the member for Moore Ian Goodenough, a prominent player in the internal wars, and some of his constituents are swapping defamation action threats over allegations of branch stacking.
There was also some urging at the weekend for Ian “9 percent” Honey to go with suggestions his seat of Cottesloe could fall to a good independent.
Good luck trying to tame this nest of vipers.
It’s over two years to next State election but the Liberals show no sign of sorting themselves out.
The dominant faction would seem to believe in power with no glory.
US Powerball numbers: Jackpot reaches estimated $1 billion, 2nd largest in history
NEW YORK (WABC) — The Powerball jackpot reached an estimated $1 billion ($497.3 million cash) for the next drawing on Halloween, after no one matched all six numbers on Saturday night.
https://abc7ny.com/powerball-jackpot-winning-numbers-drawing-2022-1-billion/12397449/
“C@tmomma says:
Monday, October 31, 2022 at 10:29 am
…But aren’t they [= the military, my note] mates with Bolsonaro, being a former military commander himself?”
He only reached the rank of captain and left the army (to start his career in politics) in the context of a scandal and a military court trial.
Smart.
In April, Lula tapped centre-right Geraldo Alckmin, a former rival, to be his running mate.
Good news:
Lula has pledged to put a halt to illegal deforestation in the Amazon, and once again has prominent environmentalist Marina Silva by his side, years after a public falling out when she was his environment minister. The president-elect has already pledged to install a ministry for Brazil’s original peoples, which will be run by an Indigenous person.
And the task ahead for Lula:
From the Associated Press:
Thomas Traumann, an independent political analyst, compared the results to U.S. President Joe Biden’s 2020 victory, saying da Silva is inheriting an extremely divided nation.
“The huge challenge that Lula has will be to pacify the country,” he said. “People are not only polarised on political matters, but also have different values, identity and opinions. What’s more, they don’t care what the other side’s values, identities and opinions are.”
Rossmcg,
That Ian Goodenough character has an unnatural control over people for someone who seems like a charisma black hole!
Thanks for the background, Alpo. 🙂
@Alpo I see virtually no encouraging indicators of an ongoing democratic future at the US midterms I’m afraid.
Agree there Mavis- I think that now the Budget is out of the way, and the Newspoll is done, that the Government can focus on issues like energy prices , Robodebt and straightening out all Morrison’s crooked deals. Robodebt will be a weeping sore for Dutton and Co and he will have to contend with and defend the bad news that comes out of the RC.
For the next month, the media will focus on the Vic. election and its results. Black Swan aside, the Government has a clear run to Xmas.
“C@tmomma says:
Monday, October 31, 2022 at 10:35 am
Snap! Alpo. ”
South America has a special place in my heart. I lived in the sub-continent for 15 years (1970-1985), my wife is Chilean… we speak Spanish at home, and we can’t wait to see Social Democracy to work for the People and the Environment there.
Bolsonaro: “I’ve called my opponent and congratulated him on his win”. Something I won’t hear in my lifetime.
C@tmomma:
Monday, October 31, 2022 at 10:34 am
[‘Yes, the thing that really pisses me off about Dutton is his log cabin reflection of his humble childhood, when he comes from a family who sat at the top table of Queensland politics! Wasn’t his grandfather a former Queensland Premier?’]
Yes. A one point I thought he was going to break down. Perhaps Morrison’s empathy coach has been working with him. His great-great-grandfather (Charles Dutton) was a member of the Queensland Legislative Assembly, serving as the Secretary for Lands, Works and Mines, and Railways, at various times between 1883 and 1888.
“Bellwether says:
Monday, October 31, 2022 at 10:44 am
@Alpo I see virtually no encouraging indicators of an ongoing democratic future at the US midterms I’m afraid.”
The race for the H. of Reps. will be hard and the polls are worrying. The race for the Senate seems to be more encouraging. Yes, I can’t blame you for being somewhat pessimistic, but it’s not over until is over and the Democrats must keep fighting to the very end and encouraging/helping people to go and vote.
This is not a traditional Democrats vs Republican fight. This is a Democracy vs MAGA fight.
”
C@tmommasays:
Monday, October 31, 2022 at 9:30 am
phoenixRED @ #89 Monday, October 31st, 2022 – 9:25 am
Elon Musk Spreads Baseless Conspiracy Theory About Pelosi Attack
Just days after he promised advertisers that Twitter would not become a “free-for-all hellscape,” Elon Musk used the platform he now owns to amplify a baseless conspiracy theory about the hammer attack on Nancy Pelosi’s husband by an intruder.
Musk linked out to a story, which is no longer accessible, in an online conservative rag called the Santa Monica Observer claiming that the suspect did not break into the Pelosis’ San Francisco home hunting for Nancy.
Instead the invisibly sourced “story” alleged that Paul Pelosi, 82, was having a liaison with a male sex worker. While others have also hinted at this rumor—twisting themselves into pretzels to explain such details as the broken window and a 911 call—none of them have the reach or influence of Musk.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/elon-musk-amplifies-baseless-conspiracy-theory-in-pelosi-attack
Texas Paul from Meidas Touch caught the San Francisco Fox affiliate red-handed spreading the same lie:
https://youtu.be/oapu14VnZYs
Also, Nancy Pelosi is coming after Elon Musk now. Legally. For spreading that lie about her husband on Twitter, even though he deleted it.
I think Elon Musk is suffering from delusions of grandeur if he thinks he can get away with that.
”
Pelosi should go after him legally. But she has only 2 months to prosecute him if Democrats lose House. Maybe the Democrats should campaign how Republican party nihilism is causing violence in real life and and destroying democracy so that somehow they can retain House.
C@T
In the case of Goodenough it’s all about the branches he controls through his church links.
Goodenough made a motza in business and I’d guess his funding also gives him influence in the party.
He came very close to losing endorsement to Vince Connelly, the member for the abolished seat of Stirling, so his position may not be as strong as it once was.
His accusing others of branch stacking is behind irony.
C@t
Goodenough is one of SfM’s fellow loons. The Liberal Party in WA was well and truly warned but it was either unwilling or unable to do anything. Some headlines over the years..
.
2016
Rob Johnson lashes WA Liberals over ‘religious cults’ taking over in Moore division
a Pentecostal organisation that backs Federal Liberal MP Ian Goodenough — now control five branches in the party’s Moore division
2018
The religious minority seizing power in the Liberal Party
2019
WA Libs’ evangelicals likened to ‘a cancer’ by Federal MP who says they are close to a complete ‘takeover’
2021
Liberal survivor puts spotlight on right-wing churches – AFR
Vale Bob Ellicott
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Ellicott
”
C@tmommasays:
Monday, October 31, 2022 at 9:33 am
The only problem with the Paul Pelosi conspiracy theory ginned up by the Right is that the Police were there and they have body cam footage proving that the attacker was fully clothed and not in his underpants as the liars are suggesting.
”
C@tmomma
Nath is strangely silent on Musk posting Paul Pelosi conspiracy theory on twitter. Remember he is the biggest defender of Musk on this site.
Remember he kept defending Thorpe even after her bikie gang conflicts of interest in Senate.
António Costa, president of Portugal, congratulating Lula in their common language:
“António Costa
@antoniocostapm
Já tive a oportunidade de felicitar calorosamente @LulaOficial pela sua eleição como Presidente da República do Brasil. Encaro com grande entusiasmo o nosso trabalho conjunto nos próximos anos, em prol de #Portugal e do #Brasil, mas também em torno das grandes causas globais.”
Its been obvious for several years that musk is a capricious actor.
Apparently he is wanting the platform to have less bots, manipulation and disinformation.
And yet he did that crapola tweet re Pelosi.
Cronus / Ven
“Makes me wonder if this isn’t the AUKUS interim answer to the proposed nuclear submarines that can’t and won’t be built for years, the capability (partly) is simply deliverable by air rather than sea. Of course there are several roles and capabilities that submarines can undertake that can’t be accomplished by bombers but the net nuclear effect at least is achieved. ”
Quite possibly. Talk of Australia buying B21s arose about the same time as it began looking obvious Australia could not get SSNs any time soon under AUKUS.
I think this is also why talk of “expansion” of AUKUS to include other capabilities like missiles and cyber started. It wasn’t an expansion but a distraction from the primary objective failing. Most of those other capabilities can be supplied by other nations as well. Committing to getting them all from the USA simply eliminates competitive tendering from the process. Great.
If this is the “answer” Keating is right – Australia’s sovereignty is being compromised. We have zero control over USAF planes at a NT base.
Other missions apart from naval strike are undo-able by B52s. They can’t track Chinese submarines. They can’t stop snyone doing Nordstream-style attacks on Australian underwater cables. They also can’t stop another whole generation of RAN submariners retiring because there are no subs left to reliably go to sea in and get experience.
I keep saying they are going to come out like ants
—–
BREAKING: MSNBC reported that Wisconsin is seeing higher youth voter turnout now than in 2018. I’m going to say it again: young people are frustrated, angry, and we will *shatter* youth voter turnout records 9 days from now. Do not count us out. Just wait and see.
Alpo
Thanks for the background on Bonsonaro. Interesting. Sounds like a military version of Dutton.
Ven 09:12
“ And proves the PB ALP supporters perception that Albanese got it right politically till now.
Before the naths, P1s and Rexs jump on me note that you can implement and embed policies only if a party remains in government for atleast 3 terms.
I know there is very little time to implement good Climate change policies. But the thing is unless ALP is in in government , no climate change policies will be implemented.”
——————————————————————————————-
And that’s the nub of it.