Newspoll and Resolve Strategic post-budget polls (open thread)

Labor’s still healthy two-party lead cops a dent in the post-budget Newspoll, but Resolve Strategic finds no significant change on three weeks ago.

The post-budget Newspoll finds Labor’s two-party lead at 55-45, in from 57-43 at the previous poll eight weeks ago. Both major parties are up on the primary vote, Labor by one to 38% and the Coalition by four to 35%. All other players are down: the Greens by two to 11%, One Nation by one to 6%, the United Australia Party by one to 1% and all others by one to 9%. Anthony Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister has slipped from 61-22 to 54-27, and he is down two on approval to 59% and up four on disapproval to 33%. Peter Dutton is up on both approval and disapproval, respectively by four points to 39% and three points to 46%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1500.

The poll also includes the same suite of questions on response to the budget that Newspoll has been posing since the late 1980s, which you can read about here – I’ll have more to say about those later. Note also the other new posts below this one – my own lengthy compendium of New South Wales state election news, and Adrian Beaumont’s coverage of Brazil’s presidential election and other international electoral events.

UPDATE (Resolve Strategic): Now there is a Resolve Strategic poll from the Age/Herald, with stronger results for Labor: their primary vote is unchanged on the poll three weeks ago at 39%, with the Coalition up two to 32%, the Greens up one to 13%, One Nation down one to 4%, the United Australia Party down two to 1%, independents down one to 8% and others up one to 3%. Anthony Albanese leads Peter Dutton by 53-19 as preferred prime minister, in from 55-17 three weeks ago. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1611.

The budget was rated good for “the country as a whole” by 44% and for “me and my household” by 28%, compared with 50% and 40% respectively for the March budget – it’s not clear how many of the remainder particularly rated it as bad. Four options for action on power prices all received strong support: 79% for price caps, 59% for taxpayer subsidies for those on low incomes, 64% for heavily subsidising home solar power and 67% for reserving gas for the local market, with 3%, 14%, 11% and 4% respectively opposed. Thirty-six per cent considered Labor had broken promises to “cut power bills and get wages moving”, with 12% disagreeing and 53% either undecided or considering it too early to say.

UPDATE (Newspoll budget response): For the questions Newspoll asks after every budget, an even 29% rated it both good and bad for the economy, but 47% rated it negative for personal impact compared with only 12% for positive. Thirty-four per cent felt the opposition would have done a better job, with 48% disagreeing. Another question gauged the extent to which respondents felt the budget properly balanced the cost of living and the budget deficit: 6% felt it put too much emphasis on the former, 25% too much emphasis on the latter, 23% felt it struck the right balance and 31% felt it didn’t do enough for either.

This marks the thirty-sixth budget of which Newspoll has asked essentially the same set of questions going back to 1988. The results are the sixth worst for personal impact and the ninth worst for economic impact, although it rates in the middle of the pack on the question of whether the opposition would have done better. The latter point is illustrated by the first of the charts below, which records Labor budgets in red and Coalition budgets in blue. The second chart illustrates the correlation between positive results on personal and economic impact. In landing right on the trendline, this shows no particular sense that the budget favoured either economic concerns or personal finances relative to its somewhat negative reception overall.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,531 comments on “Newspoll and Resolve Strategic post-budget polls (open thread)”

Comments Page 2 of 31
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  1. Holdenhillbilly

    “ just 10 parsecs, or about 33 light-years”

    Another example of learning something new every day, cheers.

  2. This poll, which is only a point in time in the past after all, may show that the Overton window is not so much shifting but contracting towards the centre. The extremes on both left and right lost skin.

  3. The best election result for Labor since the immediate post-war election was 53.2% 2PP in 1983, in which Bob Hawke first became PM. It would be great if Albo could get near that in 2024-25. Of course, 55 would be so much better, although history suggests that it is unlikely. We shall see.

  5. “imacca says:
    Monday, October 31, 2022 at 12:17 am
    Yah…the reaction to the Budget not all positive for the ALP”…

    The reaction to the budget (or anything else) was never ever going to be positive for the ALP, and this is the reaction from both the pro-Liberal (most media in this country) and pro-Greens media (The Guardian). What seems to be changing, however, is the reaction of the voters to such media predictability…. Good news for the health of our democracy!

  9. Ian Davis is protecting his lobby. That is all.

    Price caps don’t work when there is a shortage of money. They don’t work when there isn’t enough money in the market to cover the costs of producing the good in question. Hence the reference to Argentina.

    That’s not the world we are in. We are in a country where prices are way above the costs of production, and are being sustained at a level far beyond the gas businesses’ expectations when they built their assets. Capping domestic prices high should above the costs of production should have little-to-no effect on gas producers incentives (noting international prices will still be free to move as high as the market will bear).

    What will affect investment in having firm take-off customers over the life of the investment. For domestic gas, gas-to-power is the biggest peak user, but not the most reliable (by far the most volatile, by several orders of magnitude). A national strategic gas storage facility could be used to smooth that demand and build a firmed domestic demand. Iona doesn’t quite cut it.

  10. dont t think dutton can improve his poles its seems strange his campaigning on energy bills when he did nothing when in power the gas industry does not want price controls but they did nothing to garintee supply

  12. Currency against US Dollar, past year.

    Russia: +13%
    Brazil: +6%

    Switzerland: -8.8%
    Indonesia: -9.7%
    India: -9.8%
    Canada: -9.8%
    China: -13%
    Euro: -13.8%
    Australia: -14.7%
    South Africa: -19%
    South Korea: -21%
    Japan: -29%
    Pakistan: -29%
    Turkey: -93%

  13. Brazilian presidential election:

    So far 2.7% of votes have been declared null… and the current overall difference between Bolsonaro (50.8%) and Lula (49.2%) is 1.6%…. Are we heading for a recount of those votes?… A 2000-United States-presidential-election-recount-in-Florida kind of situation?

  14. Rex Douglassays:
    Monday, October 31, 2022 at 7:06 am

    I see newspoll suggests white supremacist Australia doesn’t approve of an outspoken black senator pushing hard for truth and treaty .

    ————-
    Pushing hard for truth and treaty by sleeping with bikies and not declaring a conflict of interest. #youknowitmakesense

  16. ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Monday, October 31, 2022 at 7:12 am
    Rex Douglas,
    You really are full of the most ridiculous assumptions these days. Didn’t your mother tell you what happens when you assume things, like your nonsense @ 7.06am?
    ”

    I still don’t get why he likes Dan Andrews? I guess that is probably that is one of nature’s mysterious. 🙂

  21. Boerwar @ #57 Monday, October 31st, 2022 – 7:57 am

    C@t
    You might want to check laws about promoting a boycott with a view to ascertaining legality. I don’t know.

    Especially as I didn’t create the hashtag, I simply planted the seed. Anyway, in the jurisdiction of America different laws apply and if the person who created the hashtag is American then they probably are covered by the 1st Amendment.

  22. This is interesting …

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/oct/30/rather-than-an-endlessly-reheated-nuclear-debate-politicians-should-be-powered-by-the-evidence

    The article is primarily a refutation of Dutton’s statement that “The technology doesn’t yet exist at the scale that is needed to store renewable energy for electricity to be reliable at night, or during peak periods. That is just the scientific reality.”

    Of course it exists. We are using it now, and could and should be using more of it.

    But it also prompts another question … which is why both major parties are still subsidizing the expansion of fossil fuels? From the above article:

    For the first time, the IEA forecast that fossil fuel use across the globe would peak in the next few years as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine accelerated a shift to clean fuels. It found existing policies would soon lead to coal use falling and demand for gas would plateau by the end of the decade. The declines will be much faster if, as expected, climate action continues to ramp up.

    Australia has one of the world’s largest fossil fuel export industries. It is supporting massive developments expected to last until late into the century as though nothing much is going to change.

    Australia’s fossil fuel cartel appears to have managed to convince the government that their export industry will still be viable out past 2050 and still needs massive new supplies of fossil fuels, yet also still needs needs massive subsidies (which it is of course still getting, as recently as in the budget just a few days ago) … or Australia is being mugged yet again.

    I reckon I know which it is.

  23. “Oakeshott countrysays:
    Monday, October 31, 2022 at 8:29 am
    Alpo
    Are we looking at the same results?
    Bolsonaro is currently 500,000 ahead – not the few hundred in Florida”…

    I am just focusing on the number of votes declared null and the overall national difference between the two candidates. If the difference is smaller than the number of null votes, somebody may start questioning why were those votes declared null, and whether there was a bias (e.g. more Lula votes declared null than Bolsonaro’s?)… etc.
    The Florida analogy is very broad, not to be taken too literally.

  24. UK Cartoons:
    Patrick Blower on #Halloween #Putin #XijingPing

    Ben Jennings on #COP27 #ClimateEmergency

    Guy Venables on #LizTruss

    Mac – ‘Sorry, Your Majesty. We’ll have to delay “Operation Incinerate” till tomorrow. Henderson forgot to bring the matches.’ #Spare #RandomHouse #PrinceHarry

    Morten Morland on #RishiSunak #SuellaBraverman #LeakySue

    Matt on #TripleLock #Halloween

  25. Lula 50% vs Bolsonaro 50% right now, with 68.53% of vote sections accounted for….

    The trend has been in favour of Lula recently…

  27. Shellbell
    Morris royal commission and Patel in Bundaberg
    If you wish to see a trial by media this is the case.
    The Supreme Court eventually found that “Dr Death’s” results were not that far below standard. The real villain in this was the Bundaberg Director of Medical Services who failed to define Patel’s scope of practice. His registration has been marked to be never again have an administrative position.

    There is currently a similar case in the Victorian courts where the DMS was found negligent by not controlling an obstetrician.

  30. ”
    Cronussays:
    Monday, October 31, 2022 at 7:42 am
    “ The United States is preparing to deploy up to six nuclear-capable B-52 bombers to northern Australia, a provocative move experts say is aimed squarely at China. An investigation by Four Corners can reveal Washington is planning to build dedicated facilities for the giant aircraft at Tindal air base, south of Darwin. The US has drawn up detailed plans for what it calls a “squadron operations facility” for use during the Northern Territory dry season, an adjoining maintenance centre and a parking area for “six B-52s”.

    Hmmmm, if true, this has Morrison’s AUKUS fingerprints all over it.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-31/china-tensions-taiwan-us-military-deploy-bombers-to-australia/101585380
    ”

    Now we know atleast one of the reasons why Biden agreed to AUKUS deal.
    Did the conversation between Morrison and Biden went something like this even though the delivery of Nuclear sub is in never never time frame and there a is good chance that backstabbing of a very reliable ally in Europe could prove counter-productive to US:

    Scenario 1:

    Morrison: You can have anything you want in return for this AUKUS deal announcement.
    Biden: Anything?
    Morrison: Yes, anything no questions asked.
    Biden: Can we station B-52 bombers with nuclear war heads on Australian soil? It may antagonise your neighbouring countries towards you.
    Morrison: Don’t worry about it. I will take care of it. Let me just make the AUKUS deal announcement, then we can work out the details of what you want to do. You can take as much time as you want. Let us say 12-18 months.
    Biden: Let me get back to you.

    Scenario 2:
    Biden: Ok, I checked with my team. You can make the announcement.
    Morrison: Thankyou very much. Let pencil down the announcement date to September, 2021.

    PS: Biden is a person, who is on record saying as Senator to go to war with Britain on a country, which is on the otherside of the world because UK is NATO partner.

  31. Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK.

    Cronus

    “ The United States is preparing to deploy up to six nuclear-capable B-52 bombers to northern Australia, a provocative move experts say is aimed squarely at China. An investigation by Four Corners can reveal Washington is planning to build dedicated facilities for the giant aircraft at Tindal air base, south of Darwin. The US has drawn up detailed plans for what it calls a “squadron operations facility” for use during the Northern Territory dry season, an adjoining maintenance centre and a parking area for “six B-52s”.

    As with the subs I think Australian basing was what the USA was always after under AUKUS.

    I have two concerns on this. First Australia still has laws against nuclear power and nuclear weapons. Does this require changing the laws?

    Second, this would make NT a Chinese target in a war. Darwin is within DF26 range of Hainan. Yet we still have no treaty that says USA would help defend Australia. We only get “consulted”.

    So we are taking the risks but not getting the benefits.

  34. ”
    Cronussays:
    Monday, October 31, 2022 at 7:45 am
    Holdenhillbilly

    “ just 10 parsecs, or about 33 light-years”

    Another example of learning something new every day, cheers.
    ”

    Cronus
    We urgently need a wormhole or two to find out earth like planets because it is looking increasingly likely we might have passed the inflection point of reversing the effects of Climate change.

  35. Lula is ahead in the states of Para’ and Amazonas… that cover the entire length of the Amazon river and associated rainforests… There is a strong ecological message for President Lula if he wins.

  37. ”
    Boerwarsays:
    Monday, October 31, 2022 at 7:48 am
    This poll, which is only a point in time in the past after all, may show that the Overton window is not so much shifting but contracting towards the centre. The extremes on both left and right lost skin.
    ”

    And proves the PB ALP supporters perception that Albanese got it right politically till now.
    Before the naths, P1s and Rexs jump on me note that you can implement and embed policies only if a party remains in government for atleast 3 terms.
    I know there is very little time to implement good Climate change policies. But the thing is unless ALP is in in government , no climate change policies will be implemented.

  38. Boerwar @ #22 Monday, October 31st, 2022 – 5:48 am

    I hope the sanctions keepers are keeping an eye on camera/lens sales. Mine will track a bird across the sky. If the bird flies behind a tree my camera will be ready to pick it up as it comes out the other side.

    Clever stuff. Is the smarts in the lens or the camera? I marvelled the first time I saw a phone tracking a person’s face, then multiple people simultaneously. There is clearly scope for Ukraine (and others) to innovate off the back of millions of mobile phones. Which then also reminded me of this article.

    The app, ePPO, relies on a phone’s GPS and compass, and a user only has to point their device in the direction of the incoming object and press a single button for it to send a location report to the country’s military.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/29/ukraine-phone-app-russia-drone-attacks-eppo

  39. Elon Musk Spreads Baseless Conspiracy Theory About Pelosi Attack

    Just days after he promised advertisers that Twitter would not become a “free-for-all hellscape,” Elon Musk used the platform he now owns to amplify a baseless conspiracy theory about the hammer attack on Nancy Pelosi’s husband by an intruder.

    Musk linked out to a story, which is no longer accessible, in an online conservative rag called the Santa Monica Observer claiming that the suspect did not break into the Pelosis’ San Francisco home hunting for Nancy.

    Instead the invisibly sourced “story” alleged that Paul Pelosi, 82, was having a liaison with a male sex worker. While others have also hinted at this rumor—twisting themselves into pretzels to explain such details as the broken window and a 911 call—none of them have the reach or influence of Musk.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/elon-musk-amplifies-baseless-conspiracy-theory-in-pelosi-attack

  40. Alpo @ #85 Monday, October 31st, 2022 – 9:06 am

    Lula is ahead in the states of Para’ and Amazonas… that cover the entire length of the Amazon river and associated rainforests… There is a strong ecological message for President Lula if he wins.

    I’d say they’re also sending a strong message to Bolsonaro. Stop cutting it down!

  42. More on Musk and the “Pelosi attack”

    Musk’s sharing of the conspiracy theory stemmed from a tweet by Hillary Clinton on Saturday. The Democratic former senator shared a Los Angeles Times story about DePape’s apparent far-right leanings.

    “The Republican Party and its mouthpieces now regularly spread hate and deranged conspiracy theories,” Clinton said, according to the Los Angeles Times. “It is shocking, but not surprising, that violence is the result. As citizens, we must hold them accountable for their words and the actions that follow.”

    Musk responded by tweeting that “there is a tiny possibility there might be more to this story than meets the eye,” and shared a link to a post that presented an unfounded conspiracy theory on the hammer attack, the Times reported. This conspiracy post was in the Santa Monica Observer, which the Times described as being “notorious for publishing false news”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/oct/30/elon-musk-twitter-baseless-conspiracy-theory-paul-pelosi-attack

  43. phoenixRED @ #89 Monday, October 31st, 2022 – 9:25 am

    Elon Musk Spreads Baseless Conspiracy Theory About Pelosi Attack

    Just days after he promised advertisers that Twitter would not become a “free-for-all hellscape,” Elon Musk used the platform he now owns to amplify a baseless conspiracy theory about the hammer attack on Nancy Pelosi’s husband by an intruder.

    Musk linked out to a story, which is no longer accessible, in an online conservative rag called the Santa Monica Observer claiming that the suspect did not break into the Pelosis’ San Francisco home hunting for Nancy.

    Instead the invisibly sourced “story” alleged that Paul Pelosi, 82, was having a liaison with a male sex worker. While others have also hinted at this rumor—twisting themselves into pretzels to explain such details as the broken window and a 911 call—none of them have the reach or influence of Musk.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/elon-musk-amplifies-baseless-conspiracy-theory-in-pelosi-attack

    Texas Paul from Meidas Touch caught the San Francisco Fox affiliate red-handed spreading the same lie:

    https://youtu.be/oapu14VnZYs

    Also, Nancy Pelosi is coming after Elon Musk now. Legally. For spreading that lie about her husband on Twitter, even though he deleted it.

    I think Elon Musk is suffering from delusions of grandeur if he thinks he can get away with that.

  44. “I have two concerns on this. First Australia still has laws against nuclear power and nuclear weapons. Does this require changing the laws?”

    My understanding is that Aust / US nukes has always been in the context of US forces operating in the Indo Pacific visiting or transiting through Australia. They may or may not be carrying nukes so whether or not they are is kept ambiguous, but the visits / transits go ahead.

    Storing storing actual war-stocks of nukes at an Australian base is a totally different matter and i don’t think either the US or Australia will want to actually go there. I hope that the Australian Govt will be unambiguous about this as Nuclear Capable does not actually equate to nuclear armed.

    The Buffs at Tindal would be a major capability just on the basis of sea-denial in the region. their ability to deploy ASM of various types, sea mines……

    And really, Tindal has always been a place for US forces to run to if places like Guam got done over in a shooting war. More of same same i think. Given how important Tindal is now i don’t actually think extra facilities are going to make it “more” of a target than it already is.

    Given that the Govt has just done the abstention thing in the UN over banning nukes?? Maybe the old response of complete ambiguity / plausible deniability isn’t something the US will get from us now?

    Hey……sets us up for when we buy a squadron of B21 wot?? 🙂

  46. The only problem with the Paul Pelosi conspiracy theory ginned up by the Right is that the Police were there and they have body cam footage proving that the attacker was fully clothed and not in his underpants as the liars are suggesting.

  49. imacca

    “Hey……sets us up for when we buy a squadron of B21 wot?? ”

    Indeed. If our only choices in Defence now are which US kit we can buy, then I suppose B21s makes sense assuming we won’t be getting US SSNs any time soon.

    Of course if we are trying to defend Australia as well as possible on a fixed budget, then neither B21s nor US SSNs makes any sense at all. So I expect we will get both 🙁

    If only we had a change of government that could fix this.

  50. Brazilian presidential election: Good news, Lula is back ahead in Minas Gerais and, overall, he has got 50.8% of the national vote, with 97.79% of vote sections accounted for….

    It looks more and more like a Lula win….

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