Resolve Strategic: Labor 39, Coalition 30, Greens 12 (open thread)

A new federal poll finds Labor maintaining a commanding lead, with most undecided on the question of stage three tax cuts.

Newspoll may be spinning on its wheels, but the Age/Herald has come through with the third Resolve Strategic poll of federal voting intention since the election, three weeks after the last. This one has Labor on 39% (steady), the Coalition on 30% (down two), the Greens on 12% (up two), One Nation on 5% (down one), the United Australia Party on 3% (up one) and independents on 9% (up one). Resolve Strategic doesn’t publish its own two-party numbers, but a fun new tool from Armarium Interreta allows you to punch in primary vote numbers and get a two-party result based on preference flows from the May election, which suggests a Labor lead of about 58-42.

Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is 60% (steady) compared with 25% for poor and very poor (up one), and he leads 53-18 on preferred prime minister (53-19 last time). Peter Dutton has a positive rating of 30% (up two) and a negative rating of 41% (up one). The poll also had questions on the budget and tax, the most interesting of which finds 34% supporting and 13% opposing the repeal of the stage three tax cuts, with fully 53% “undecided/neutral”, and on the Optus security breach. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1604.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,194 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 39, Coalition 30, Greens 12 (open thread)”

Comments Page 37 of 44
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  1. ”
    Cronussays:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 7:31 am
    Thanks BK, another absolute smorgasbord today.

    Pity we didn’t get a Newspoll in the lead up to the budget (given its prominence as a current issue) and then one following as a comparison to help assess how well it’s received by voters.
    ”

    Cronus
    Imagine the outrage if ALP did not vote for S3 cuts in the first place. Currently, ALP has 5 out of 30 seats in QLD. If it had said before the May election that it will change them after election, it will not have even 1 seat in QLD and there goes ALP majority and possible re-election of Morrison government.

  2. Boerwar

    Your options 2 and 3 could both be right. My concerns with 1, 4 and 5 are that they could more easily be achieved by letting the kids go through the lines into Ukrainian controlled territory. But no…

  3. ”
    shellbellsays:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 7:52 am
    “national conversations” is a phrase which should be taken out the back along with “start a conversation”.
    ”

    🙂

  5. The three points of the triangle are spending, revenue and borrowing.

    Truss has just promised and tried to deliver what Abbott promised in the election that took him to power: no cuts in services but reduction in taxes. He promptly instituted a fixed inquiry that told that this could not work. The first Hockey budget was truth IN power: taxes, services and borrowing were all to be cut. Small government was the agenda.

    All those who want to increase spending, as I do, have to persuade voters that increasing revenue is necessary. I can understand the sneering at having a ‘national conversation’. But the direct appeal to increasing revenue by the Greens failed dismally at the last election. Those of us who want to increase revenue know how to fail. The question is how do we succeed?

    Anyone with any solutions for how to shift the views of a substantial proportion of the electorate may now do so.

  7. Only the Labor party could vote for and implement a policy they vehemently don’t believe in.

    You could argue that Morrison and Frydenberg are still Treasurers of Australia as it is their income tax policy which will reign for some time. Apparently.

  8. One small point on the media narrative. RW hacks are waiting praying for Albo or Andrews to slip up.

    Meanwhile with the Victorian floods I checked Peter Dutton’s Twitter account – nothing. His last tweet was literally sending “thoughts and prayers” to victims of the Thai mass shooting.

    Same with Mathew Guy. Crickets.

  9. Socrates @ #1496 Monday, October 17th, 2022 – 9:05 am

    Boerwar

    Your options 2 and 3 could both be right. My concerns with 1, 4 and 5 are that they could more easily be achieved by letting the kids go through the lines into Ukrainian controlled territory. But no…

    I wouldn’t risk it with the number of mines that are supposed to be out there. 🙁

  11. Socrates @ #1502 Monday, October 17th, 2022 – 9:33 am

    One small point on the media narrative. RW hacks are waiting praying for Albo or Andrews to slip up.

    Meanwhile with the Victorian floods I checked Peter Dutton’s Twitter account – nothing. His last tweet was literally sending “thoughts and prayers” to victims of the Thai mass shooting.

    Same with Mathew Guy. Crickets.

    As you say, they only exist to rain on Labor’s parade.

  12. Cronus @ #1772 Monday, October 17th, 2022 – 7:46 am

    “The Albanese government is clear about the need for national conversations about the various challenges confronting Australia. It is far less clear about the need to lead them, complains Jennifer Hewett.”
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/governments-must-walk-the-walk-not-just-talk-20221016-p5bq6w
    ———————————————————————————————-

    Jennifer Hewett having a bob-each-way. On the one hand she castigates Truss in the UK for failing to “prepare the ground” for her pre-budget message (no amount of preparation was ever going to be sufficient imo).

    On the other hand, she castigates Albo and Chalmers for allowing unfettered debate (as though they can control Murdoch) rather than controlling or leading the discussion (which then we know many would scream “nanny state”) on S3 tax cuts. Not a very informative contribution from Hewett.

    “Unfettered debate” was the reflexly rubbish line Coorey was peddling on Insiders yesterday too, about what most reasonably balanced people would have considered having a worthwhile ‘national conversation’. Ha*.

    (*shellbell, then there’s ‘bringing the people with us’. The term I loath most is the phantom ‘average Australian’, for whom the ever devious Howard was the great spruiker)

  13. Anti Labor journos are going through the phase of scratching around like chooks looking for the worm they can bait their hooks with.

  15. ItzaDream

    What about “reinventing the wheel”.

    Our daughter, 2nd year primary education degree (2nd day today under the flight path at Stanmore public), asks me to look at her draft essays every now and then.

    Pleasingly “teachable moments” does not appear.

  16. https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/14/2128931/-Trump-wanted-people-to-die-so-he-could-invoke-the-Insurrection-Act-and-stay-in-power

    From Matthew Chapman, reporting for Raw Story:

    “It made my heart race to watch today’s hearing, really, because they brought up Trump’s mindset, and the question was, what was his mindset?” Taylor told anchor Nicolle Wallace. “I’m going to demystify that for America right now. I’ve spent time with the guy in the Oval Office, the White House situation room, and Air Force One. I’ll tell you what his mindset was on January 6th.”

    “I believe Donald Trump wanted people to die,” said Miles Taylor. “He wanted people to die … who were elected officials, en masse, so he could call out the military, so he could invoke the Insurrection Act, so he could prevent the peaceful transfer of power. That’s not a conspiracy theory. In fact, in hindsight, it’s pretty damn clear to me this is what he had in mind from day one in office.”

  17. Shellbell

    Is your daughter and her pupils experiencing any “learnings” together?

    Edit: substituted “and” for “or”

  18. The Coalition is on the nose everywhere except Tasmania and in the mainstream media.

    @Scott I don’t think Benson and Co at the Oz would have the stomach to publish a Newspoll with a 60+ 2Pp for Labor.

  19. NSW Labor is very much the beneficiary of the Federal Government’s policy competence I would say. As the gormless Perrotet flaps around aimlessly raising (dam walls) and razing (World Heritage sites), and the brittle completely inappropriate for any position involving dealing with sentient beings Elliot barks and shadow boxes at his own shadow, and the litany of failed projects stack up year after year, a good model of how a Labor government can govern is just what the good people need to see. The timing is perfect. And, the Transport Union has openly and proudly declared pre-election war on the government. Last Thursday, Sydney media was buzzing triggered by an article by a SMH journo who sat on a train for two hours between North Sydney and Wynyard.

    Kinda got an It’s Time feeling in the air.

    On dams – the ACO premiered The River with live orchestration (it was Covid delayed, and ran at Sydney and Melbourne film festivals with a recorded soundtrack) on Saturday. “Free The Rivers’ (of Life), was the motif. It brought us both to tears.

    https://youtu.be/Aaz8-k7JUm0

  21. Whatever they pay teachers is not enough. Ever. They cradle our future. It is one profession where wanting to be of it is the greatest pointer to should be in it. Unlike, say, politicians, or clergy.

  23. simm0888 says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 10:09 am
    The Coalition is on the nose everywhere except Tasmania and in the mainstream media.

    @Scott I don’t think Benson and Co at the Oz would have the stomach to publish a Newspoll with a 60+ 2Pp for Labor.

    ________________________________________

    I think there is far too much conspiracy theory rubbish going on about the absence of Newspoll. The fact is that polls cost money and this early in the electoral cycle there is no business benefit in publishing polling on a rigid regular cycle.

    My observation is that the polls are typically done this early usually leading into Parliamentary sitting weeks, because that’s when they get the biggest bang, as one side or the other quotes the polls in Parliament and the media are all in a tizz as to the impact of the polls on the intra-party political shenanigans.

    I expect there will be a Newspoll next week leading into the Budget.

  25. nath @ #1807 Monday, October 17th, 2022 – 9:24 am

    Only the Labor party could vote for and implement a policy they vehemently don’t believe in.

    You could argue that Morrison and Frydenberg are still Treasurers of Australia as it is their income tax policy which will reign for some time. Apparently.

    nath, you’re way smarter than that. That burr in your saddle needs out. It’s all been said so often. You don’t need to be reminded that they voted for ‘it’ to cement getting into government, where there they can actually effect a change, and that implementation is due 2024, that’s the year after next, subject still to implementable change, that Morrison and Frydenberg are now mere stains on history’s undies, and that there’s a budget any week soon.

  26. UK Cartoons:
    Ben Jennings on #LizTruss & her precarious hold on power #Blundertruss #ToryChaos

    Patrick Blower on #JeremyHunt #LizTruss #Blundertruss #ToryChaos #ToryIncompetence

    Mac on #LizTruss appointing #JeremyHunt as Chancellor #Blundertruss #ToryChaos

    Morten Morland: The 39 prime ministers who all have read the Sunday Times. I should’ve included Jeremy Hunt as well of course, but the drawing was done before last week’s events.

    Morten Morland on #Trussonomics #LizTruss #KwasiKwarteng #Blundertruss #ToryChaos

  27. simm0888 says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 10:26 am
    Fair point TPOF. Though it would be nice though if Newspoll was released at least on a monthly basis at a regular schedule.
    —————————

    The old chestnut about blaming conspiracy theories when there are no newspoll its a bit overboard ,
    there is suspicion why there has been no newspoll because the opinion polling is likely no different to what resolve is showing Dutton and the lib/nats are not getting support ,
    when you look at last year and in 2020 ,2019 and so on, there has been newspoll 2 weeks before budget sitting

  28. ItzaDream @ #1519 Monday, October 17th, 2022 – 10:30 am

    nath @ #1807 Monday, October 17th, 2022 – 9:24 am

    Only the Labor party could vote for and implement a policy they vehemently don’t believe in.

    You could argue that Morrison and Frydenberg are still Treasurers of Australia as it is their income tax policy which will reign for some time. Apparently.

    nath, you’re way smarter than that. That burr in your saddle needs out. It’s all been said so often. You don’t need to be reminded that they voted for ‘it’ to cement getting into government, where there they can actually effect a change, and that implementation is due 2024, that’s the year after next, subject still to implementable change, that Morrison and Frydenberg are now mere stains on history’s undies, and that there’s a budget any week soon.

    Sounds like nath spent all weekend thinking that one-liner up. 😆

    Though, seriously, nath never addresses thoughtfully the issues underpinning Labor’s decision, just creates superficial emotive trigger one-liners. Like you say, Itza, he’s smarter than that.

  30. Ven says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 9:03 am
    ”
    Cronussays:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 7:31 am
    Thanks BK, another absolute smorgasbord today.

    Pity we didn’t get a Newspoll in the lead up to the budget (given its prominence as a current issue) and then one following as a comparison to help assess how well it’s received by voters.
    ”
    Cronus
    Imagine the outrage if ALP did not vote for S3 cuts in the first place. Currently, ALP has 5 out of 30 seats in QLD. If it had said before the May election that it will change them after election, it will not have even 1 seat in QLD and there goes ALP majority and possible re-election of Morrison government.
    ———————————————————————————————

    Agree entirely, albeit that my sample was unrepresentative and frankly so to is my seat of Dickson (according to the election result), I’ve little doubt that the cost of the breach of trust would far outweigh the cost of the cuts. I thought Phil Coorey was somewhat disappointed on Insiders with the issue now having taken a back seat and being kicked into the long grass simply because Albo held the line on not changing Labor’s pre-election promise.

  32. #Weather on PB
    A strong High Pressure system over Southern China has seen Bangkok residents shiver through on of its coldest days this year. With the temperature barely nuding above 28 degrees yesterday and morning lows plumbing 19 degrees, Bangkok locals donned thick jackets, scarves and beanies to ward off the cold.

    With an overcast sky keeping sunlight at bay, the Thai Meteorological Department issued the following warning:

    “During 16 – 20 Oct, people in the country should be careful of their health due to cool weather.”

  33. Re Dutton: after the efforts of Abbott there has never been any plan from LNP that didn’t involve distributing taxpayer $$S to the mates.
    Dutton doesn’t do policy so it’s a good thing Hume got that notion put to bed.
    Responsible government must be driving them nuts just waiting for a Labor mistake.

  34. Yes, a telling clip I watched last week had Dutton going full tilt into lambasting Labor over a decision which hadn’t been taken to repeal the Stage 3 tax cuts, whereupon he had to correct himself half way into it to say the S3 tax cuts which Labor better not repeal and break faith with the electorate. 😀

    Because that’s one thing Dutton knows, all the catch phrases to batter a Labor government with and he’s not afraid to use them as a battering ram every day until the next election. Whether it’s a sound policy move by Labor or not.

  35. Cronus @ #1768 Monday, October 17th, 2022 – 6:26 am

    We caught up with our dozen neighbours yesterday at neighbourhood drinks following our return from overseas. The issue du jour was the S3 tax cuts. Two points were made quite clear:

    1) All are expecting their tax cuts regardless of the economic environment.

    2) Any hint at failure to deliver said cuts will be met with salivating outrage.

    Just sayin.

    That’s coming from people who voted for Labor this time around, or die-hard Coalition voters who are always going to be outraged at something Labor has/hasn’t done regardless?

  36. The interesting question in politics these days is whether or not the Lying Reactionaries can reverse the declines in their relevance and their support. They have become essentially unelectable everywhere except Tasmania and, federally, in Queensland. They’re a front organisation for extremist/antique religious sects…for sects that have little resemblance to the electorate. They should expect to see their vote share shrink even further.

  38. ItzaDream @ #1519 Monday, October 17th, 2022 – 10:30 am

    nath, you’re way smarter than that. That burr in your saddle needs out. It’s all been said so often. You don’t need to be reminded that they voted for ‘it’ to cement getting into government, where there they can actually effect a change, and that implementation is due 2024, that’s the year after next, subject still to implementable change, that Morrison and Frydenberg are now mere stains on history’s undies, and that there’s a budget any week soon.
    _________
    that’s just a less concise but better written summary of what I said. Only Labor could have got into this mess with S3. I hope they can get out of it, but it is amusing and a little sad that they have ended up where they have.

    Also, I don’t think Labor voting for S3 had any influence on the election. And If it did, it was only enough to deliver a majority of one, so perhaps another policy would have been more successful.

  39. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 10:46 am
    Dog’s Brunch,
    The Ukrainian Military is the global guinea pig for new war strategy.

    Not new apparently(Baghdad) but working well in this context. Toyota Hilux and Bushmasters at the pointy end apparently.

  41. I very much doubt that Labor will rescind the S3 tax cuts. However, tax scales are not set in stone. They can be tuned in many different ways. Hopefully Labor will not take any risks with their new plurality: that they will keep their promises to voters. This is far more important than gratifying their enemies.

  42. Also, I don’t think Labor voting for S3 had any influence on the election. And If it did, it was only enough to deliver a majority of one, so perhaps another policy would have been more successful.

    Sounds like a heaping dose of supposition to me.

  43. Dog’s Brunch @ #1533 Monday, October 17th, 2022 – 10:52 am

    C@tmomma says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 10:46 am
    Dog’s Brunch,
    The Ukrainian Military is the global guinea pig for new war strategy.

    Not new apparently(Baghdad) but working well in this context. Toyota Hilux and Bushmasters at the pointy end apparently.

    Okay. I’ll watch it now. The narrator being a tosser kind of put me off. 😀

  44. nath @ #1838 Monday, October 17th, 2022 – 10:52 am

    Also, I don’t think Labor voting for S3 had any influence on the election. And If it did, it was only enough to deliver a majority of one, so perhaps another policy would have been more successful.

    Yup. The Labor partisans here would have you believe the stage 3 tax cuts are what delivered Labor government, and are therefore sacrosanct.

    That is self-serving nonsense, of course. The stage 3 tax cuts did not determine the last election. But once people finally understand how much of a regressive rort they are, they may well determine the next one.

  45. nath @ #1838 Monday, October 17th, 2022 – 10:52 am

    ItzaDream @ #1519 Monday, October 17th, 2022 – 10:30 am

    nath, you’re way smarter than that. That burr in your saddle needs out. It’s all been said so often. You don’t need to be reminded that they voted for ‘it’ to cement getting into government, where there they can actually effect a change, and that implementation is due 2024, that’s the year after next, subject still to implementable change, that Morrison and Frydenberg are now mere stains on history’s undies, and that there’s a budget any week soon.
    _________
    that’s just a less concise but better written summary of what I said. Only Labor could have got into this mess with S3. I hope they can get out of it, but it is amusing and a little sad that they have ended up where they have.

    Also, I don’t think Labor voting for S3 had any influence on the election. And If it did, it was only enough to deliver a majority of one, so perhaps another policy would have been more successful.

    To what extent it is a mess, it was there to be got in, Labor didn’t create it. I’d rather Labor deal with it than the Others. No contest. We will never know the actual influence sticking with S3 had, but (cliche alert) a win is a win, and I guess the question you lead to is what other policy would have been a priori predictably more successful.

  46. Questions Under Oath – hmmm

    “Two former cabinet ministers are expected to give evidence over the next two days as the trial of the man accused of raping former Liberal staffer Brittany Higgins enters its final days.

    Bruce Lehrmann is accused of raping Ms Higgins in Linda Reynolds’ ministerial office at Parliament House after a night out drinking with work colleagues.

    He has pleaded not guilty to sexual intercourse without her consent and being reckless to her consent.

    Coalition senators Ms Reynolds and Michaelia Cash, whom Ms Higgins worked for, will take the witness stand over the next two days.

    The trial was originally expected to run between four and six weeks. ”

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/linda-reynolds-michaelia-cash-to-front-court-in-bruce-lehrmann-trial/news-story/4f189841efc23e5f057ae9117c101cca?amp

  47. Cronus @ 10.45

    Agree entirely, albeit that my sample was unrepresentative and frankly so to is my seat of Dickson (according to the election result), I’ve little doubt that the cost of the breach of trust would far outweigh the cost of the cuts. I thought Phil Coorey was somewhat disappointed on Insiders with the issue now having taken a back seat and being kicked into the long grass simply because Albo held the line on not changing Labor’s pre-election promise.

    _____________________________________

    Cronus, your sample is a hell of a lot more representative of a typical voter, being an income taxpayer buffeted by rising inflation, than the collection of hyperventilaters, trolls and agenda pushers demanding that Labor renege on its election promise right here and right now.

  48. Well as I said the other, after the 1993 Elections the “L-A-W” Tax cuts were scrapped by the re-elected Labor Government. It set the tone for its’ defeat in 1996. Albo will know this.

    S3 did not get Labor elected – but had Labor opposed S3 it may well have seen a minority Labor Government beholden to a motely crew of Cross-Benchers and Greens.

    But then again that’s what some on PB wanted from the day the election was called.

  49. Much is made of debt

    My opinion is that it is not the debt but the performance of the asset that debt is invested into

    That said

    The UK government embarked on borrowing to fund tax cuts for the well off demographic

    So debt invested into the ideology which is trickle down economics

    The Financial Markets have responded

    The population has responded

    If ever there was an argument against the right wing ideology which is trickle down economics this is it

    Trickle down economics and any political party promoting that ideology are hopefully things of the past

    The Liberal Party in Australia should take note

    Mind you, the damage inflicted by that policy over a generation of Liberal Party governments needs to be addressed and corrected

    It will take time because you can not go back and rewrite

    The start point to correction is now

  50. Sceptic says:
    Sunday, October 16, 2022 at 8:22 pm

    Would it be safe to assume the US is well & truly stuffed?
    ———————————
    Remembering that the president’s party usually does badly in their first midterm that would be an okay result for the Democrats.

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