Resolve Strategic: Labor 39, Coalition 30, Greens 12 (open thread)

A new federal poll finds Labor maintaining a commanding lead, with most undecided on the question of stage three tax cuts.

Newspoll may be spinning on its wheels, but the Age/Herald has come through with the third Resolve Strategic poll of federal voting intention since the election, three weeks after the last. This one has Labor on 39% (steady), the Coalition on 30% (down two), the Greens on 12% (up two), One Nation on 5% (down one), the United Australia Party on 3% (up one) and independents on 9% (up one). Resolve Strategic doesn’t publish its own two-party numbers, but a fun new tool from Armarium Interreta allows you to punch in primary vote numbers and get a two-party result based on preference flows from the May election, which suggests a Labor lead of about 58-42.

Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is 60% (steady) compared with 25% for poor and very poor (up one), and he leads 53-18 on preferred prime minister (53-19 last time). Peter Dutton has a positive rating of 30% (up two) and a negative rating of 41% (up one). The poll also had questions on the budget and tax, the most interesting of which finds 34% supporting and 13% opposing the repeal of the stage three tax cuts, with fully 53% “undecided/neutral”, and on the Optus security breach. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1604.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,194 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 39, Coalition 30, Greens 12 (open thread)”

Comments Page 36 of 44
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  2. Dr Doolittle says:
    Sunday, October 16, 2022 at 10:52 pm

    Rakali at 10.33 pm

    Putin does not need marketing palaver and bumptious bullying.

    He needs strategic thought, not there in a fraud like ProMo. (See also USUKA, i.e. You-Sucker, known lazily as AUKUS.)

    The UK Tories are desperate for a helping hand. Perhaps the SNP could pay for ProMo to obstruct the ascenion of Hunt.
    ____________

    Lovin’ “USUKA”!

    If I can’t have AUFUKUS (by including the French,) I want Parliament to pass a Bill renaming the tripartite arrangement “USUKA”!

  3. Upnorth says:
    Sunday, October 16, 2022 at 11:26 pm

    “An ambitious national plan to end domestic and sexual violence within one generation includes a focus on achieving gender equality, as well as the importance of engaging men and boys.

    The federal government will release the National Plan to End Violence against Women and Children 2022–2032 on Monday, with victim-survivors, experts, frontline services, states and territories all contributing to the plan.

    One woman dies every 10 days in Australia at the hands of their former or current partner.

    One in three women has experienced physical violence since the age of 15, and one in five has experienced sexual violence.

    The federal government said the level of violence in Australia was a “national disgrace”, while Monash Gender and Family Violence Prevention Centre director Kate Fitz-Gibbon described gender-based violence as a “national crisis”.

    The plan includes:

    Advancing gender equality and addressing other forms of discrimination;
    Changing attitudes to stop violence from happening before it starts through national prevention;
    Effective early intervention;
    Building the frontline sector workforce and ensuring support can be accessed everywhere;
    Making sure tailored and culturally-safe support is accessible; and
    The need for person-centred services and better co-ordination.

    Actions to implement the plan will be outlined in two supporting five-year plans.

    The federal government will also continue to work to deliver a stand-alone Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander National Plan.

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/breaking-news/disgrace-national-plan-to-end-domestic-and-sexual-violence-against-women-and-children-within-one-generation/news-story/ae663e3801ac2d799f6b552cac4586ee
    ____________

    But, but, but…I thought Labor didn’t stand for anything!

  7. The Last newspoll result was on Sept 4 2022

    Another week absence after the propaganda push by the corrupt media and Lib/nats suggest a repeat of day 1 of federal election campaign has happen

    The media went off early and it has backfired, the opinion polling showed the attacks on Labor weren’t working to help to boost the support for the Lib/nats

  9. sprocket_ says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 6:32 am
    NSW poll in the AFR today will have Dom panicking…
    —————————————————

    it wont be a surprise if the NSW election turns out to be similar to the federal election result, where the NSW Lib/nats government lose government with a combined primary vote below 40% ,

  10. Still no Newspoll?

    Meanwhile here’s something for the new government to get its teeth into!

    Billions of dollars are being rorted from Medicare each year by medical practitioners making mistakes or charging for services that aren’t necessary or didn’t even happen – including billing dead people and falsifying patient records to boost profits.

    The revelations come as GPs lobby the federal Labor government to boost Medicare funding and increase rebates, claiming the system is in crisis as patients struggle to find a bulk-billing doctor.

    A joint investigation by The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age and the ABC’s 7.30 program has uncovered flaws in Medicare’s systems that make it easy to rort and almost impossible to detect fraud, incorrect payments and errors.

    The leakage is estimated by some to represent nearly 30 per cent of Medicare’s annual budget, or about $8 billion a year.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/medicare-is-haemorrhaging-the-rorts-and-waste-costing-taxpayers-billions-of-dollars-a-year-20221013-p5bpp9.html

  14. vietch via special powers suprised the cfmeu have tghat much suport at conference to over turns the minns pick how ever vietch has not dun much as an mp and murphy will probaly be a better job mins could allways get the admin commity to re instate

  15. This is very interesting

    Worldwide Speakers Group
    @WWSGconnect
    ·
    Oct 13
    Proud to announce Australia’s 30th Prime Minister Scott Morrison is exclusively represented by WWSG for his global speaking engagements.
    “the true definition of a leader with a 360º worldview”
    “A virtuous globalization mastermind”
    To host him, contact us. https://hubs.ly/Q01pdrGD0

  16. The liberal party preselections will be interesting with brad hazard likely to retire and david elliot not being able to stay im shure he will not go down quietly

  17. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    The UK and US are heading for recession and China is facing a sharp economic slowdown that will have ramifications for Australia’s economy and shape next week’s budget, Treasurer Jim Chalmers warns. Rachel Clun writes that updated forecasts on international economic growth ahead of the October 25 budget show a steep downgrading of forecasts over the next couple of years for several of Australia’s major trading partners amid global energy price shocks, the war in Ukraine and ongoing pandemic restrictions in China.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/perilous-path-for-global-economy-with-recessions-in-sight-ahead-of-budget-treasurer-20221016-p5bq5s.html
    The Albanese government is clear about the need for national conversations about the various challenges confronting Australia. It is far less clear about the need to lead them, complains Jennifer Hewett.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/governments-must-walk-the-walk-not-just-talk-20221016-p5bq6w
    Adele Ferguson and Chris Gillett report that billions of dollars are being rorted from Medicare each year by medical practitioners making mistakes or charging for services that aren’t necessary or didn’t even happen – including billing dead people and falsifying patient records to boost profits.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/medicare-is-haemorrhaging-the-rorts-and-waste-costing-taxpayers-billions-of-dollars-a-year-20221013-p5bpp9.html
    They tell us that rorting Medicare has become so lucrative that courses teach doctors and health professionals how to milk the $28 billion taxpayer-funded billing system and cover their tracks.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/doctors-taught-how-to-pack-and-stack-medicare-billings-to-boost-revenues-20221016-p5bq56.html
    And the SMH editorial declares that this Medicare rorting is a national scandal needing an urgent fix. It says the Medicare crisis is not of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s making but the current depth of public goodwill behind him, combined with Labor’s history as the architects of Medicare in the 1980s, means he is in a unique position to do something about it.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/medicare-rorting-is-a-national-scandal-needing-urgent-fix-20221016-p5bq4v.html
    “Sports Rorts” and assorted grants schemes manipulated for political gains by the former Coalition government are not merely corrupt by probably illegal too, writes Vince O’Grady. O’Grady found the political bias persisted not only in Sports allocations but throughout the more than $7bn in grants programs. And that is before even analysing the almost half a trillion in government contracts since 2013.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/judgement-day-is-coming-for-sports-rorts-other-coalition-grants-schemes/
    Despite trying to soften his image, Peter Dutton remains prodigiously unpopular, writes Belinda Jones.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/perennially-unlikeable-peter-dutton-is-fooling-no-one,16867
    Former prime minister Scott Morrison has been advertised as the “true definition of a leader” as he attempts to build a side-gig as a globetrotting speaker. The Worldwide Speakers Group has announced that Mr Morrison, Australia’s 30th prime minister, will “exclusively” represent the group on international speaking engagements. Pull the other one!
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2022/10/17/scott-morrison-worldwide-speakers-group/?breaking_live_scroll=1
    Australians are facing financial ruin, even homelessness, after being granted unaffordable credit at the “click of a finger” by payday lenders, a Senate committee has heard. Matthew Elmas writes that financial counsellor Lyndall Millburn told senators on Friday that one of her clients – who was scheduled to appear before the public hearing but pulled out – was pushed into a financial crisis by payday lenders.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2022/10/14/payday-loans-senate-committee/
    The federal government has signalled a new wave of competition reform, supported by incentive payments to the states, as part of an agenda it says would boost living standards and bring down prices for consumers. Shane Wright reports that tonight Competition Minister Andrew Leigh will say the country needs a “good dose of competition”, arguing for a return to the Hilmer reforms of the 1990s and early 2000s that delivered a $50 billion a year boost to the economy.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-zippier-economy-competition-reform-back-on-government-agenda-20221014-p5bprv.html
    Wendy Touhy writes that today Amanda Rishworth will announce sweeping government programs to end the “epidemic” of violence against women and their children in Australia, where one woman is killed every 10 days by a current or former partner. The programs will have their effectiveness measured for the first time.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/game-changer-we-need-plan-to-end-violence-against-women-within-a-generation-20221016-p5bq4c.html
    More from Josh Butler on what he says is a world-leading action.
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/oct/17/federal-government-launches-world-leading-bid-to-end-violence-against-women-and-children-within-a-generation
    Neil Mitchell and Jon Faine have their say about the Victorian election.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/victoria-s-pandemic-response-is-the-elephant-in-the-room-this-election-20221014-p5bpv7.html
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/dan-andrews-secret-weapon-is-the-man-trying-to-beat-him-20221014-p5bpv3.html
    More time off for new mums and dads will be good for the economy, says Rachel Clun about the government’s parental leave and childcare policies.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/more-time-off-for-new-mums-and-dads-will-be-good-for-the-economy-20221015-p5bq2i.html
    Countless thousands of small and medium-sized family enterprises are celebrating the courage of Labor and Andrew Leigh, the Assistant Minister for Competition and Treasury. Robert Gottliebsen writes that Leigh has introduced into parliament a tough bill that will make illegal the unfair contracts that are currently being shoved down the throats of Australian family enterprises.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/andrew-leighs-tough-bill-set-to-make-unfair-contracts-history/news-story/902e0985e0a4012cb2eb3dbb273f6d4f
    All Australian schools should have access to a bank of lesson plans under a radical proposal to reduce teacher workload, boost results and stop educators having to plan classes from scratch. Lucy Carroll and Madelaine Heffernan tell us that a report by independent think tank the Grattan Institute has found 15 per cent of almost 2250 primary and high school teachers across the country have access to a common set of high-quality curriculum materials for all classes, and teachers in disadvantaged schools are half as likely to have access to shared lesson plans than those in advantaged schools.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/schools-need-shared-lesson-plans-for-teachers-to-stop-learning-lottery-20221013-p5bpga.html
    The usual suspects in their regular appearances on Sky News After Dark or on the hustings are horrified by what they think is going on in our schools. Yet seeing what is actually going on is heartening for the rest of us, explains Noel Turnbull.
    https://johnmenadue.com/classrooms-of-hope-and-inspiration-why-are-sky-news-so-angry-about-them/
    People are using only 80 per cent of their support packages in the National Disability Insurance Scheme and combined with a higher-than-expected number of people entering the scheme, the program’s costs will continue to balloon without intervention, explains Rachel Clun.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/the-60-billion-question-how-to-fund-and-run-the-ndis-20220926-p5bl41.html
    Coalition senators Michaelia Cash and Linda Reynolds will this week appear in court in the last days of the high profile trial of Bruce Lehrmann, who is accused of raping former Liberal staffer Brittany Higgins. Cash’s testimony will be a sight to behold.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/senators-set-to-appear-following-higgins-claims-of-intimidation/news-story/6d5e30d8a53bf7dcc04a6d6844928dbb
    Greg Brown reports that religious leaders are urging Anthony Albanese to reverse his opposition to a “statements of belief” clause in religious discrimination legislation which would offer explicit protection for people of faith from being sacked by their employer over voicing their beliefs.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/faith-leaders-urge-pm-to-shield-religious-beliefs-with-legislation/news-story/c8b98fe82c4120c59b36bbc61caa776c
    The NSW casino regulator will fine Sydney’s The Star a record $100 million for its failure to stem criminal activity and money laundering within its casinos. The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age have confirmed with multiple sources that the Independent Casino Commission will hand down the decision on Monday, which is also the first day on the job for The Star’s new chief executive Robbie Cooke.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/sydney-s-the-star-casino-to-be-fined-100-million-following-damning-inquiry-20221016-p5bq7m.html
    In cities and towns across Russia, men are going into hiding to avoid the officials who are seizing them and sending them to fight in Ukraine. The return of the press gang?
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/russia-is-grabbing-men-off-the-street-to-fight-in-ukraine-20221017-p5bq8q.html
    The AFR tells us that China’s property sector, which accounts for between 20 per cent and 25 per cent of Chinese GDP and about 40 per cent of household assets, is in the second year of a slump that has so far proved impervious to a series of increasingly desperate government stimulus measures, including lower rates, tax breaks and directives for banks to support property developers.
    https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/xi-s-coronation-can-t-overshadow-growing-property-crisis-20221016-p5bq49
    Liz Truss is fighting for her political survival, with Conservative MPs threatening to oust her and even allies warning she has just days to turn around her premiership despite ripping up her economic strategy and appointing Jeremy Hunt as chancellor.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/16/liz-truss-fights-for-survival-as-even-allies-say-she-could-have-only-days-left
    Bill Wyman explains why Trump is Biden’s greatest asset. He ends by saying, “America’s political structures are tested and strong. But even they can’t withstand a population determined to destroy them.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/with-enemies-like-trump-biden-s-greatest-asset-20221014-p5bpvz.html
    Here’s today’s “Arsehole of the Week” nomination. It goes to the principal of a Queensland religious school who interrogated students about whether they knew a teacher was living with her boyfriend, amid concerns the teacher’s “lifestyle” went against its “biblical moral standards”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/oct/17/christian-school-principal-quizzed-students-if-they-knew-unmarried-teacher-lived-with-boyfriend

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    Mark David

    Peter Broelman

    Megan Herbert

    Leak

  18. We caught up with our dozen neighbours yesterday at neighbourhood drinks following our return from overseas. The issue du jour was the S3 tax cuts. Two points were made quite clear:

    1) All are expecting their tax cuts regardless of the economic environment.

    2) Any hint at failure to deliver said cuts will be met with salivating outrage.

    Just sayin.

  19. Thanks BK, another absolute smorgasbord today.

    Pity we didn’t get a Newspoll in the lead up to the budget (given its prominence as a current issue) and then one following as a comparison to help assess how well it’s received by voters.

  20. Confessions @ #1760 Monday, October 17th, 2022 – 6:47 am

    Meanwhile here’s something for the new government to get its teeth into!

    Billions of dollars are being rorted from Medicare each year by medical practitioners making mistakes or charging for services that aren’t necessary or didn’t even happen – including billing dead people and falsifying patient records to boost profits.

    The revelations come as GPs lobby the federal Labor government to boost Medicare funding and increase rebates, claiming the system is in crisis as patients struggle to find a bulk-billing doctor.

    A joint investigation by The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age and the ABC’s 7.30 program has uncovered flaws in Medicare’s systems that make it easy to rort and almost impossible to detect fraud, incorrect payments and errors.

    The leakage is estimated by some to represent nearly 30 per cent of Medicare’s annual budget, or about $8 billion a year.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/medicare-is-haemorrhaging-the-rorts-and-waste-costing-taxpayers-billions-of-dollars-a-year-20221013-p5bpp9.html

    Interesting this is basically the same Adele Ferguson article run back in July –

    Medicare fraud and billing errors by medical practitioners are costing taxpayers at least $7 billion a year, according to Dr Margaret Faux, a health regulation expert who has been administering Australian medical billing since Medicare began. Adele Ferguson tells us Faux says the level of leakage – taxpayer money lost through fraud, errors and abuse – was as much as 30 per cent of the total Medicare scheme’s costs.

    https://www.afr.com/companies/healthcare-and-fitness/medicare-fraud-errors-costing-billions-20220702-p5ayjy

  22. “The Albanese government is clear about the need for national conversations about the various challenges confronting Australia. It is far less clear about the need to lead them, complains Jennifer Hewett.”
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/governments-must-walk-the-walk-not-just-talk-20221016-p5bq6w
    ———————————————————————————————-

    Jennifer Hewett having a bob-each-way. On the one hand she castigates Truss in the UK for failing to “prepare the ground” for her pre-budget message (no amount of preparation was ever going to be sufficient imo).

    On the other hand, she castigates Albo and Chalmers for allowing unfettered debate (as though they can control Murdoch) rather than controlling or leading the discussion (which then we know many would scream “nanny state”) on S3 tax cuts. Not a very informative contribution from Hewett.

  23. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 7:44 am
    Cronus,
    Never get between a voter and a bucket of money.
    ———————————————————————————————

    (Chuckles) and given that it’s racing season (apparently), best we continue to back the horse named Self-Interest.

  25. The most telling comment on Medicare rorting was by Tony Webber, the ex head of the Professional Services Review

    When Webber raised his concerns with health ministers from both sides of politics, or the federal health department, he was shut down.
    The administration of Medicare is a very political creature to work with, and it can be very difficult for change to occur,” he said.
    “If one side of politics decides to make a radical change, the other side of politics can use it to beat them over the head in an election.”

    Solving the problem, which has existed for nearly 50 years, requires radical structural change rather than policing. It will require a degree of bipartisanship that has not existed for many years or a very courageous government.

  26. Good morning all. Thank you, BK.

    Twenty three reasons why Labor is not Same Old, Same Old as lied about by the Greens for a decade:

    1. National Plan to End Violence against Women and Children 2022–2032
    2. Extension of paid parental leave in the 2022 Budget.
    3. Moves afoot to rescue 20 Australian women and around 40 children from a Turkish internment camp.
    4. Jayne Jagot appointed to Australia’s High Court, creating first majority-female bench.
    5. Ms Falkingham will be the first permanent female Chief Executive of the NDIA.
    6. Federal Labor has appointed three eminently well qualified women to the Climate Council. This offsets the undue representation of businessmen on the Council.
    7. Federal Indigenous Affairs Minister Burney supports the development of a separate National Strategy to Address Violence Against Indigenous Women. The latter will be heavily involved in the design of the Strategy.
    8. The Victorian government on Sunday announced it would spend $270 million to recruit and train thousands of new nurses and midwives under the scheme.
    9. Labor has more female MPs than male MPs. (The Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments were not within a bull’s roar of this achievement.)
    10. Labor is fully committed to implementing all the Jenkins Report recommendations. (The Morrison Government implemented a view recommendations but basically sat on the vast majority of the Report’s recommendations.)
    11. High levels of women in the ministry. (Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments had far, far fewer women in the ministry).
    12. Labor gave a direction to the Fair Work Commission to specifically take into account the gender pay gap along with power to make gender specific determinations to close the gap. (The Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments had one universal ambitions: to damp down any real wage growth and showed zero interest in closing the gender pay gap.)
    13. Labor intervened directly in the minimum wage decision which disproportionately benefits the lowest paid workers: women. (Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison did not do this.)
    14. In recent departmental secretary appointments: Labor appointed three out of the four women. (Morrison’s last five secretarial appointments in 2019 involved a net loss of three women.)
    15. Labor is setting the tone by promising to make boards, such as the Reserve Bank Board more representative.
    16. Three Labor women ministers to lead aspects of the skills and jobs summit that relate to women’s participation, women upskilling and closing the wages gap.
    17. Labor has avoided school holidays for sitting days.
    18. Labor has instituted humane sitting hours on sitting days.
    19. Morrison Government sat on the Report on the National Stakeholder Consultation for a Ten Year Domestic Violence Plan. Labor has released the Report with expedition.
    20. Labor introduces paid domestic violence leave legislation
    21. Ten days domestic violence leave for casual workers.
    22. Submission to the Fair Work Commission on pay in the Aged Care industry. Four out of five workers in that industry are women.
    23. Moves to legislate on coercive control.Not one of those eleven were in place in the past nine years.
    24. Removes the ban on military and public service staff from engaging in certain “woke” charity, cultural and diversity events, imposed by former minister Peter Dutton last year.

  28. WarMonitor
    @WarMonitor3
    ·
    4h
    HIMARS continue to hit Russian positions on the Kherson frontline heavily.

    Trying to get it done before winter.

  32. OC
    I find it difficult to square the rorting story with the story about GPs leaving their practices in droves. I simply don’t know what is going on and why.

  35. ”
    sprocket_says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 6:32 am
    NSW poll in the AFR today will have Dom panicking…

    Survey details: Conducted by Freshwater Strategy for The Australian Financial Review. Sample size, 1042 respondents.Fieldwork conducted over Oct 13-16, 2022. Margin of error: 3 per cent
    Source: Freshwater Strategy / AFR Poll

    https://www.afr.com/politics/poll-puts-labor-on-path-to-victory-in-nsw-20221016-p5bq6i
    ”

    Didn’t we see a NSW poll last month where NSW Labor PV was around 40%

    PB: September 24, 2022
    The Australian today brings a state Newspoll result from New South Wales that suggests big trouble for Dominic Perrotett’s Coalition government, crediting Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46 from primary votes of Coalition 35% (compared with 41.6% at the 2018 election), Labor 40% (33.3%) and the Greens 12% (9.6%).

  36. The rorting is done by a small (?) percentage of GPs (who knows how many). Under the current fee for service model, I believe honest GPs could find it challenging to get a life work balance.
    A capitation model of payment stops over servicing but, without strict quality controls, may lead to under servicing.

    Another cause for decreasing numbers entering General Practice is the long overdue destruction of the specialist college closed shops. Now virtually anyone can get into specialist training and the number choosing GP has gone from 50% to 13. Good intentions can have unwanted consequences

  39. I would hope so but don’t think it will. Specialists are also usually a fee for service model open to rorting.

    The other factor is that the total number of medical schools and graduates in Australia has exploded in the last 30 years but at the same time generational change has lead to many choosing lifestyle over overworking. I am surprised by how little work some specialists do, but they charge premium fees to maintain their lifestyle

  41. Boerwar @ #1477 Monday, October 17th, 2022 – 8:18 am

    C@t
    It was a city of 300,000 before the War.

    How many refugees have fled Ukraine? I read about 2.5 million. As a centre of military activity I would imagine that a lot came from Kherson. I just worry about how the ones deported to Russia (50 children per day is the reporting), will get back to their home town?

  42. c@T
    The frontlines seem to consist of strongpoints with significant sections where basically the infantry are there to observe. Advances at thinly held sections must be replied to with rapidly deployed reinforcements. If it does anything, winter might aid the Russians by fostering static meatgrinder over mobile tactics.

  43. Boerwar,
    Yes I have read that it won’t be territory that is easily won back. It appears the cannon fodder are the front line with a well-reinforced 2nd line of experienced Russian military, who are also prepared for urban warfare, street to street in Kherson city.

  44. Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. Current financial circumstances are not great but, like the Victorian floods, give Labor a chance to show what a competent, non-sociopathic government can do.

    As for no Newspoll, it is a pity but, with Cash and Reynolds in the witness box this week at the Bruce Lehrmann trial, what better time to have one than next Monday?

  45. BK @ #1767 Monday, October 17th, 2022 – 7:14 am

    The UK and US are heading for recession and China is facing a sharp economic slowdown that will have ramifications for Australia’s economy and shape next week’s budget, Treasurer Jim Chalmers warns. Rachel Clun writes that updated forecasts on international economic growth ahead of the October 25 budget show a steep downgrading of forecasts over the next couple of years for several of Australia’s major trading partners amid global energy price shocks, the war in Ukraine and ongoing pandemic restrictions in China.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/perilous-path-for-global-economy-with-recessions-in-sight-ahead-of-budget-treasurer-20221016-p5bq5s.html
    The Albanese government is clear about the need for national conversations about the various challenges confronting Australia. It is far less clear about the need to lead them, complains Jennifer Hewett.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/governments-must-walk-the-walk-not-just-talk-20221016-p5bq6w

    When circumstances change …

    “The budget will confirm the stark deterioration in the outlook for global growth and in several major economies, with some at risk of falling into recession,”

    …

    Chalmers said Australia had benefited from a tight labour market and good demand for exports, but the country “will not be spared from the consequences of a global slowdown”.

    …

    “A weaker global economy with higher inflation and heightened risks makes it even more important we deliver a responsible budget here at home, which is exactly what we will do next week,” he said.

    … sensible people review their plans. So, it it time to talk about the stage 3 tax cuts yet?

    Apparently not …

    It has still created considerable confusion about Labor’s intentions, given the mixed messages over the last few weeks. This self-inflicted drama was even sillier given these tax cuts don’t even take effect until 2024. It was a national conversation that simply turned in on itself to produce an awkward full stop. Next week’s budget will now politely ignore this issue.

    …

    But none of it will make the coming months any easier. Who wants to talk about that?

    Not Labor. We are now heading for an economic car crash as well as a climate catastrophe (the two are closely linked, of course) and on both issues they are still too busy checking their makeup in the rear-view mirror.

  46. Yep.

    —
    The Albanese and Andrews governments have set up a rapid response to the #vicfloods emergency — shelter, supplies, support, boots on ground, repairs, essential services, air lifts. In March this year, in NSW, it was left to Hollywood celebrities to fund and coordinate. #auspol

  47. Cat / Boerwar

    “ I just worry about how the ones deported to Russia (50 children per day is the reporting), will get back to their home town?”

    They sound depressingly like hostages to me, in case Putin keeps losing. I worry that they will become a bargaining chip for Russia to hang onto Crimea or something similar if things get any worse for him.

  48. ”
    davesays:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 7:41 am
    Confessions @ #1760 Monday, October 17th, 2022 – 6:47 am

    Meanwhile here’s something for the new government to get its teeth into!
    ……………….
    …………..
    Interesting this is basically the same Adele Ferguson article run back in July –

    Medicare fraud and billing errors by medical practitioners are costing taxpayers at least $7 billion a year, according to Dr Margaret Faux, a health regulation expert who has been administering Australian medical billing since Medicare began. Adele Ferguson tells us Faux says the level of leakage – taxpayer money lost through fraud, errors and abuse – was as much as 30 per cent of the total Medicare scheme’s costs.

    https://www.afr.com/companies/healthcare-and-fitness/medicare-fraud-errors-costing-billions-20220702-p5ayjy
    ”

    dave
    🙂
    Interesting indeed to put it mildly.
    This shows how lazy journalists became. Regurgitating old news because no one cared about it last time around.

  49. The notable absence from Glorious Leader Xi’s two hour long speech was any reference to China’s construction industry mire. Previous responses have been to pump air into the already over-inflated tyre. Attempts so to do over the past couple of years have not worked.
    Estimates of empty dwellings in China range from 50 million to 100 million with 65 million being something that might be most likely.

  50. ‘Socrates says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 8:56 am

    Cat / Boerwar

    “ I just worry about how the ones deported to Russia (50 children per day is the reporting), will get back to their home town?”

    They sound depressingly like hostages to me, in case Putin keeps losing. I worry that they will become a bargaining chip for Russia to hang onto Crimea or something similar if things get any worse for him.’
    ——————————————————————–
    We don’t know what the motivation(s) are. They could be:
    1. Reducing the logistics strain
    2. Hostages/human bargaining chips
    3. Forcible migration into Russia to bolster Russia’s ageing population
    4. Reducing the depth of the sea within which partisans can swim
    5. Clearing Kherson for urban warfare

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