Resolve Strategic: Labor 39, Coalition 30, Greens 12 (open thread)

A new federal poll finds Labor maintaining a commanding lead, with most undecided on the question of stage three tax cuts.

Newspoll may be spinning on its wheels, but the Age/Herald has come through with the third Resolve Strategic poll of federal voting intention since the election, three weeks after the last. This one has Labor on 39% (steady), the Coalition on 30% (down two), the Greens on 12% (up two), One Nation on 5% (down one), the United Australia Party on 3% (up one) and independents on 9% (up one). Resolve Strategic doesn’t publish its own two-party numbers, but a fun new tool from Armarium Interreta allows you to punch in primary vote numbers and get a two-party result based on preference flows from the May election, which suggests a Labor lead of about 58-42.

Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is 60% (steady) compared with 25% for poor and very poor (up one), and he leads 53-18 on preferred prime minister (53-19 last time). Peter Dutton has a positive rating of 30% (up two) and a negative rating of 41% (up one). The poll also had questions on the budget and tax, the most interesting of which finds 34% supporting and 13% opposing the repeal of the stage three tax cuts, with fully 53% “undecided/neutral”, and on the Optus security breach. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1604.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,194 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 39, Coalition 30, Greens 12 (open thread)”

Comments Page 35 of 44
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  1. ‘Politicians and their entourages are better off out of the way and back in the office taking briefings and acting swiftly on them.’

    I think you can do both. Show up on the ground, then help in substance later. Even if it’s cynical (and the current Prime Minister seems less cynical than most), a bit of frontline leadership is OK.

  2. Rex Douglas @ #1643 Sunday, October 16th, 2022 – 12:59 pm

    Historyintime @ #1633 Sunday, October 16th, 2022 – 4:33 pm

    I don’t know why you wouldn’t want the Prime Minister to be on the ground, for a bit, in a natural disaster. Helps for morale and so forth even if it’s a bit forced and artificial. Of course they later have to follow up with substance.

    Politicians and their entourages are better off out of the way and back in the office taking briefings and acting swiftly on them.

    Wasn’t Dan there as well?

  3. ItzaDream

    “ Something about religion? what a surprise!”

    As if they haven’t got enough things to concern themselves about without arguing over religion as well.

  4. No that’s wrong. The argument about religion and murder of 11 occurred in Belgorod in Russia on the northern border with Ukraine, whereas the surrender occurred in the Kherson Oblast in the south.

  5. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, October 16, 2022 at 8:16 pm
    “No that’s wrong. The argument about religion and murder of 11 occurred in Belgorod in Russia on the northern border with Ukraine, whereas the surrender occurred in the Kherson Oblast in the south.”

    It’s a good sign that we’re having trouble keeping up with the various Russian misfortunes (chuckles).

  6. I did also hear today that Saudi Arabia isn’t likely to get away with it’s stunt to help Russia by cutting back on oil production to keep the price up and money coming into the Russian economy to fund the war. America has a Bill ready to go that will tie American military aid to Saudi Arabia rectifying their stunt. And as 80% of the stuff they get from America is maintained for them by Americans, it will probably have the desired effect. Time for MBS to get it up him.

  7. I reread that Guardian article on Thorpe, this time thinking about “Unmitigated Blak”. It fits. I also think it’s important to have the ULURU STATEMENT FROM THE HEART to hand when reading anything on the Voice. So, I reread that too.

    Thorpe’s position as far as I can make out is that she wants treaty and truth-telling and sees the Voice as a distraction. The USFTH on the other hand, asks for two things, a Voice and a Process.
    -“We call for the establishment of a First Nations Voice”
    -“We seek a Makarrata Commission to supervise a process of agreement-making between governments and First Nations and truth-telling about our history.”

    It would be interesting to know what conversations have and are taking place among Greens MPs, but Thorpe has softened her stance, though I suspect only as long as Bandt supports her. She now says that Voice is irrelevant (which is not the same as a distraction) as long as Treaty and Truth-telling are also happening.

    Some further thoughts, in no particular order or certainty.
    * Until now Thorpe needed the Greens more than the Greens needed Thorpe. With the Voice referendum it’s now the other way about. (Damage to Greens if she walks out.)
    * Bandt has put his leadership on the line by backing Thorpe’s position.
    * Keeping Thorpe happy might mean getting started on the Makarrata Commission before the referendum on the Voice.
    * Establishing a Makarrata Commission at the same time as running a referendum on the Voice to Parliament will create confusion or allow space for confusion to be created.
    * How important is it to keep Thorpe happy?

  8. Did cameron murphy end up running foor the upper house position in nsw or was it a murdock beat up its good to see albanese being inbeing there with flood victems but the attacks on thorp are a bit over the top

  9. Cronus @ #1706 Sunday, October 16th, 2022 – 8:19 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, October 16, 2022 at 8:16 pm
    “No that’s wrong. The argument about religion and murder of 11 occurred in Belgorod in Russia on the northern border with Ukraine, whereas the surrender occurred in the Kherson Oblast in the south.”

    It’s a good sign that we’re having trouble keeping up with the various Russian misfortunes (chuckles).

    Can you believe it.

  10. @aaronewton. Cameron Murphy did run. He won easily over quota. Terrible for the Left. Moronic play by its leaders for no real gain. I really could not understand it.

    Yes c@tmomma, John Graham is reasonably safe in that spot. To continue with the theme of keeping it in the family he is of course the partner of Sen Jenny McAlister.

  11. Albo would have been pilloried if he didn’t visit the flood-affected areas. Right or wrong, it’s something people expect from their leaders during natural disasters.

    Personally, I think it’s good thing for politicians to see these sorts of things with their own eyes and to meet those affected face-to-face. Too much time in Canberra can make a person forget what it’s like in the real world.

  12. C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, October 16, 2022 at 9:39 pm
    wranslide,
    Yes I forgot about that. And Cameron Murphy finally gets something. Though who he’s married to I don’t know.

    ——
    Not in politics. Of course, he is the son of Lionel. Perhaps a princeling? A good candidate anyhow. It’s an election winning upper house ticket hopefully.

  13. Maybe Putin could be interested.

    He needs the skills of a dynamic intellectual and moral, yet unassuming, powerhouse. A genuine product of the Liberal Party of Australia, a leader with a 360º worldview .

    Worldwide Speakers Group @WWSGconnect
    ·
    Oct 13
    Proud to announce Australia’s 30th Prime Minister Scott Morrison is exclusively represented by WWSG for his global speaking engagements.
    “the true definition of a leader with a 360º worldview” “A virtuous globalisation mastermind”. To host him, contact us. https://hubs.ly/Q01pdrGD0


  14. wranslidesays:
    Sunday, October 16, 2022 at 9:54 pm
    What was your take on conference weekend c@t? Ready to govern in NSW? Branches and members fired up and raring to go?

    Minns making promises which are very difficult to keep like creating 10000 teacher positions in Schools in 4 years and starting manufacturing of Rail carriages in NSW.
    Also, adding new nurses in schools. Easier said than done.
    As far as I know none of the current MPs and MLCs were ministers in previous Labor government. So chances for screw-ups are very high especially with a hostile media on their toes.

    The reason Anna P government and Andrews government did well is because they were back in government after just 1 term in opposition.


  15. Rakalisays:
    Sunday, October 16, 2022 at 10:33 pm
    Maybe Putin could be interested.

    He needs the skills of a dynamic intellectual and moral, yet unassuming, powerhouse. A genuine product of the Liberal Party of Australia, a leader with a 360º worldview .

    Worldwide Speakers Group @WWSGconnect
    ·
    Oct 13
    Proud to announce Australia’s 30th Prime Minister Scott Morrison is exclusively represented by WWSG for his global speaking engagements.
    “the true definition of a leader with a 360º worldview” “A virtuous globalisation mastermind”. To host him, contact us. https://hubs.ly/Q01pdrGD0

    Unbelievable!
    Scotty from marketing is screaming from that tweet. 🙂

  16. Joe Biden is adding fuel to the fire started by Liz Truss

    Joe Biden: Liz Truss tax cuts a ‘mistake’ and ‘I wasn’t the only one’ who thought so

    https://www.theguardian.com/global/2022/oct/16/joe-biden-liz-truss-tax-cuts-a-mistake-and-i-wasnt-the-only-one-who-thought-so

    “It marked an unusual criticism by a US president of the domestic policy decisions of one of its closest allies.

    “I wasn’t the only one that thought it was a mistake,” Biden said. “I think that the idea of cutting taxes on the super-wealthy at a time when … I disagree with the policy, but that’s up to Great Britain.” He criticised a lack of “sound policy” in other countries in regard to economic growth.”

  17. Ven. The teacher thing is not hard. The current Govt has placed alot of teachers on temporary contracts. Labor is just converting those over to permanent arrangements. It’s a retention thing as much as anything. It is not 10,000 of itself.

    As for the train carriages, yes, this has the potential to go off the rails.

  18. Re Rakali @10:33.

    It was great not seeing or hearing of Scotty for a while but all good things come to an end.

    Geez if he was as brilliant as the WWSG blurb makes out, why did we vote him out? Maybe Albo should put him forward for canonisation.

    Funny, the blurb forgot to mention “stopping the boats”. I suppose that was just for the punters.

    Anyway, I suppose there’ll be a by-election soon. Maybe Labor will pick up Cook. Or maybe a Teal?

  19. Ven

    Scotty from marketing is screaming from that tweet.
    ———-
    He’s desperate.

    I think he would probably be more successful in marketing himself as Pentecostal evangelist in the USA. They love bullshit.

  20. From ‘best’ budget to a dead parrot: how Tory press turned against Liz Truss

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/oct/16/from-best-budget-to-a-dead-parrot-how-tory-press-turned-against-liz-truss

    [“This was the best budget I have ever heard a chancellor deliver, by a massive margin,” wrote Allister Heath on the front page of the Daily Telegraph the day after Kwasi Kwarteng had outlined his plans for Britain’s fiscal future on 23 September.

    “The tax cuts were so huge and bold, the language so extraordinary, that at times I had to pinch myself to make sure I wasn’t dreaming.”

    Similarly, the Daily Mail hailed the budget in rich, laudatory terms. “At last, a real, Tory budget,” proclaimed its front-page headline while columnist Alex Brummer praised the “seismic” boldness of Kwarteng’s financial planning.]

    Those praises remind me of praises of Murdoch rags on Hockey first budget in 2014. In the end That budget was seed for the destruction of Abbott and Hockey political careers. (The beginning of the end of Abbott PMship).
    I am still ashamed that Abbott and Hockey were our PM and federal Treasurer. It still sends chill down my spine.
    They are reminder Australian people would vote for anyone if they think the government is bad.

  21. Rakali at 10.33 pm

    Putin does not need marketing palaver and bumptious bullying.

    He needs strategic thought, not there in a fraud like ProMo. (See also USUKA, i.e. You-Sucker, known lazily as AUKUS.)

    The UK Tories are desperate for a helping hand. Perhaps the SNP could pay for ProMo to obstruct the ascenion of Hunt.

  22. Dr Doolittle

    The UK Tories are desperate for a helping hand. Perhaps the SNP could pay for ProMo to obstruct the ascenion of Hunt.
    ———-
    I doubt that anyone can save the Tories.

    If they had 3 year terms they would be facing the bracing air of the rare time that democracy actually occurs, an election by the voters.


  23. Dr Doolittlesays:
    Sunday, October 16, 2022 at 10:52 pm
    Rakali at 10.33 pm

    Putin does not need marketing palaver and bumptious bullying.

    He needs strategic thought, not there in a fraud like ProMo. (See also USUKA, i.e. You-Sucker, known lazily as AUKUS.)

    The UK Tories are desperate for a helping hand. Perhaps the SNP could pay for ProMo to obstruct the ascenion of Hunt.

    Dr. D
    I do agree J. Hunt is their best bet out of the crappy Tory MPs.
    He should be made PM pronto. There is a chance that the sinking UK economic ship can at the best be stabilised or at the worst kept above the turbulent waters.

  24. wranslide says:
    Sunday, October 16, 2022 at 9:49 pm

    C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, October 16, 2022 at 9:39 pm
    wranslide,
    Yes I forgot about that. And Cameron Murphy finally gets something. Though who he’s married to I don’t know.

    ——
    Not in politics. Of course, he is the son of Lionel. Perhaps a princeling? A good candidate anyhow. It’s an election winning upper house ticket hopefully.
    中华人民共和国
    His other brother, Jim, is Stacias’ Chief of Staff – Cameron is a good candidate.

  25. Labor will target more than $10bn in funding for regional projects championed by the Nationals to “rebalance’’ next week’s budget in order to implement Althony ­Albanese’s election promises, ­which include cheaper childcare and medicines and a pay rise for aged-care workers.

    Dismissing many of the ­regional grants promised by the Coalition government in the May budget as bargaining chips to “pay off’’ the Nationals to support Scott Morrison’s pledge of net-zero emissions, Finance Minister Katy Gallagher said their business cases were being “carefully looked at’’.

    “If it stacks up, you know, we were pretty supportive, but there are areas where we’ve got to ­reduce spending and reallocate in the budget. We’re looking at that across the board,” Senator Gallagher said.

    Projects in Mr Morrison’s commuter carpark scheme are certain to be axed and up to $7bn promised for new dams and a program to create jobs in the regions now appear to be in serious doubt as the government moves to ­implement its own spending ­priorities.

    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/budget-regions-hit-to-pay-for-anthony-albaneses-election-wishlist/news-story/b30339be2e5c84b7eeb4f5cab892f25f

  26. “An ambitious national plan to end domestic and sexual violence within one generation includes a focus on achieving gender equality, as well as the importance of engaging men and boys.

    The federal government will release the National Plan to End Violence against Women and Children 2022–2032 on Monday, with victim-survivors, experts, frontline services, states and territories all contributing to the plan.

    One woman dies every 10 days in Australia at the hands of their former or current partner.

    One in three women has experienced physical violence since the age of 15, and one in five has experienced sexual violence.

    The federal government said the level of violence in Australia was a “national disgrace”, while Monash Gender and Family Violence Prevention Centre director Kate Fitz-Gibbon described gender-based violence as a “national crisis”.

    The plan includes:

    Advancing gender equality and addressing other forms of discrimination;
    Changing attitudes to stop violence from happening before it starts through national prevention;
    Effective early intervention;
    Building the frontline sector workforce and ensuring support can be accessed everywhere;
    Making sure tailored and culturally-safe support is accessible; and
    The need for person-centred services and better co-ordination.

    Actions to implement the plan will be outlined in two supporting five-year plans.

    The federal government will also continue to work to deliver a stand-alone Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander National Plan.

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/breaking-news/disgrace-national-plan-to-end-domestic-and-sexual-violence-against-women-and-children-within-one-generation/news-story/ae663e3801ac2d799f6b552cac4586ee

  27. At last – the Bruce “Holeway” front centre. Well done Albo and Team!

    The Bruce Highway will benefit from a half-billion dollar injection in the Albanese government’s first federal budget, in a move met with enthusiastic approval from its state Labor counterparts.

    The $1.46 billion of Queensland infrastructure funding will include $586.4 million for a major upgrade of the Bruce Highway through Brisbane’s outer northern suburbs.

    In addition, $200 million will go towards upgrading the highway between Dohles Rocks Road and Anzac Avenue, expanding it from six to eight lanes and building on- and off-ramps at the southern end.

    A further $200 million will be spent on the highway between Rockhampton and Gladstone.

    The Bruce Highway is the major way in and out of the state electorate of Murrumba, held by Deputy Premier Steven Miles.

    “As someone who joins the Bruce Highway at Mango Hill every single day, I know how important that stretch of the highway is, and how important upgrading it is,” Miles said.

    “This massive investment from the Albanese government will be very, very welcome for anyone who has to drive on the Bruce Highway, whether you’re heading north to the coast, or you live in my neck of the woods, or indeed, for our freight and logistics providers.

    Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who served as infrastructure minister in the Rudd and Gillard governments, will stick to those roots in his government’s first budget, with $9.66 billion to be spent on new road and rail projects across the country.

    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/bruce-highway-centre-of-1-46-billion-queensland-infrastructure-spend-20221016-p5bq61.html

  28. Surely ScoMo can be found a seat in the House of Commons. He can then achieve what Menzies wanted to. Even ScoMo would be better than Liz. Imagine the speaking fees if he pulled that off.

  29. Zwaktyld says:
    Sunday, October 16, 2022 at 11:31 pm

    Surely ScoMo can be found a seat in the House of Commons. He can then achieve what Menzies wanted to. Even ScoMo would be better than Liz. Imagine the speaking fees if he pulled that off.
    中华人民共和国
    Well stranger things have happened. John Bright MP (who coined the term “Mother of all Parliaments”) was elected to the Queensland Legislative Assembly seat of Kennedy, whilst he was also a Member of the House of Commons (Birmingham).

    “MLA for Kennedy, Queensland: 1869–70

    The Colony of Queensland achieved separation from New South Wales in 1859 with Brisbane in the south-east corner chosen as its capital. By the 1860s, the perceived dominance of southern Queensland created a strong separatist movement in Central Queensland and North Queensland, seeking to establish yet another independent colony. In the 1867 Queensland colonial election, some separatists decided to nominate John Bright as the candidate for the electoral district of Rockhampton in Central Queensland, arguing that representation in the Queensland Parliament had been ineffective, so they would seek a representative within the British Parliament.[28] However, he polled only 10 votes and was not elected.[29]

    Subsequently, on 11 June 1869, Thomas Henry Fitzgerald, member for the electoral district of Kennedy in North Queensland, resigned, triggering a by-election. John Bright was again nominated as part of the separatist protest and on this occasion won the resulting by-election on 10 July 1869. When nominating him, one separatist declared:

    Let us elect a man of some weight at home, who will take our case before the Queen and try for redress. There is no man more eminently qualified for this purpose than the Honourable John Bright—a favourite with the Queen, a favourite with the nation—the representative of trade, commerce, and manufactures in the Government and the champion of liberty, and yet a loyal subject. If we can enlist his sympathies, we are right. I believe he is the man who will break the iron rod of the South and set us free; for he has already fought for the liberty of the subject, and I cannot believe he will turn a deaf ear to our manifold sorrows.[30]

    In January 1870, the separatists sent a petition to Queen Victoria requesting that North Queensland be made a separate colony to be called “Albertsland” (after the Queen’s late husband Albert, Prince Consort). As Bright never visited Queensland or took his seat in the Queensland Legislative Assembly, his failure to attend parliament eventually resulted in his seat being declared vacant on 8 July 1870. North Queensland did not achieve separation and remained part of the Colony of Queensland (now the State of Queensland).[31][32][33]

    It is not known what role John Bright had in these Queensland political activities, or indeed if he was even aware of them.[31] However, it was claimed in 1867 that Bright was an “intimate personal friend” of the then Governor of Queensland George Bowen.[34]”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Bright

  30. ”Finance Minister Katy Gallagher said [National’s regional project’s] business cases were being “carefully looked at’’.

    That will take all of 3.5 seconds per project, in the few cases where a business case was actually done. A green cell in a spreadsheet?

  31. Steve777 says:
    Sunday, October 16, 2022 at 11:49 pm

    ”Finance Minister Katy Gallagher said [National’s regional project’s] business cases were being “carefully looked at’’.

    That will take all of 3.5 seconds per project, in the few cases where a business case was actually done. A green cell in a spreadsheet?
    中华人民共和国
    Between Barnabys’ ears.


  32. Upnorthsays:
    Sunday, October 16, 2022 at 11:39 pm
    Zwaktyld says:
    Sunday, October 16, 2022 at 11:31 pm

    Surely ScoMo can be found a seat in the House of Commons. He can then achieve what Menzies wanted to. Even ScoMo would be better than Liz. Imagine the speaking fees if he pulled that off.
    中华人民共和国
    Well stranger things have happened. John Bright MP (who coined the term “Mother of all Parliaments”) was elected to the Queensland Legislative Assembly seat of Kennedy, whilst he was also a Member of the House of Commons (Birmingham).

    Upnorth
    As per Wikipedia John Bright was the first politician to use ” flog a dead horse “

  33. Ven says:
    Sunday, October 16, 2022 at 11:54 pm


    Upnorthsays:
    Sunday, October 16, 2022 at 11:39 pm
    Zwaktyld says:
    Sunday, October 16, 2022 at 11:31 pm

    Surely ScoMo can be found a seat in the House of Commons. He can then achieve what Menzies wanted to. Even ScoMo would be better than Liz. Imagine the speaking fees if he pulled that off.
    中华人民共和国
    Well stranger things have happened. John Bright MP (who coined the term “Mother of all Parliaments”) was elected to the Queensland Legislative Assembly seat of Kennedy, whilst he was also a Member of the House of Commons (Birmingham).

    Upnorth
    As per Wikipedia John Bright was the first politician to use ” flogging the dead horse “
    中华人民共和国
    Yes cobber. He was a character alright. I too have been accused of “flogging a dead horse” but for me it’s “water off a ducks back”.

    You see, Joh famously used “flogging a dead horse” whenever he or any of his Government were accused of corruption.

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