Resolve Strategic: Labor 39, Coalition 30, Greens 12 (open thread)

A new federal poll finds Labor maintaining a commanding lead, with most undecided on the question of stage three tax cuts.

Newspoll may be spinning on its wheels, but the Age/Herald has come through with the third Resolve Strategic poll of federal voting intention since the election, three weeks after the last. This one has Labor on 39% (steady), the Coalition on 30% (down two), the Greens on 12% (up two), One Nation on 5% (down one), the United Australia Party on 3% (up one) and independents on 9% (up one). Resolve Strategic doesn’t publish its own two-party numbers, but a fun new tool from Armarium Interreta allows you to punch in primary vote numbers and get a two-party result based on preference flows from the May election, which suggests a Labor lead of about 58-42.

Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is 60% (steady) compared with 25% for poor and very poor (up one), and he leads 53-18 on preferred prime minister (53-19 last time). Peter Dutton has a positive rating of 30% (up two) and a negative rating of 41% (up one). The poll also had questions on the budget and tax, the most interesting of which finds 34% supporting and 13% opposing the repeal of the stage three tax cuts, with fully 53% “undecided/neutral”, and on the Optus security breach. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1604.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,194 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 39, Coalition 30, Greens 12 (open thread)”

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  1. Mavissays:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 9:15 pm
    [‘Mr Drumgold told the court Ms Reynolds sent the first message to Mr Whybrow on October 6 at 4.27pm – just half an hour after Ms Higgins finished her first day of cross-examination.

    The message read: ‘Hi do you have the daily transcripts? If so, are you able to provide my lawyer?’

    She sent another text one minute later: ‘Also if you have text messages between Brittany and Nicky they may be revealing.’

    ‘Nicky’ refers to Nicole Hamar, who was called to the witness stand last week.

    Ms Reynolds – who recently returned from a trip to Rwanda – was called as a witness for the prosecution, but she admitted to texting the defence lawyer during Ms Higgins’ cross-examination in October.

    She was also asked why her boyfriend was sitting in the back of the courtroom during the first week of the trial.’]

    The best that can be said of Reynolds is that she’s as dumb as a sack of hammers, her appearance in the witness box today clearly evidencing same. Former Morrison ministers should come to the realisation that today’s proceeding is but a harbinger for heaps more appearances in either the witness box or the dock. And to think that Reynolds once held the Defence portfolio – do’h.

    Mavis: And to think that Reynolds once held the Defence portfolio – do’h.

    Me: I want to say that Australians dodged a bullet. But I can’t. After she was moved from Defence in comes Dutton and we all sorts of military hardware cancellations and new ones being bought at much higher prices.

  2. zoomster,
    And yet, after all that, you became a teacher!?! You probably still don’t cop any crap from the students, either, I bet!


  3. Upnorthsays:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 9:31 pm
    BBC News – Humiliation for Truss

    The Truss programme for government is dead.

    Nearly every element of her prospectus has just been shredded by her new chancellor.

    “We will reverse almost all the tax measures” from the mini-budget, Jeremy Hunt said. What an extraordinary thing to hear.

    Not only has the planned cut in the basic rate of income tax been binned, so has the plan originally from Rishi Sunak to cut it in 2024.

    The prime minister, who promised to cut taxes by more than her rival over the summer, is now keeping them higher than he planned.

    And even the flagship energy support package, the crutch upon which the prime minister has leant whenever asked a tricky question in the last few weeks, has shrivelled vastly.

    It is now a six month package, not a two year one. What a day.

    And it’s not even lunchtime.

    I read today Truss could be removed as PM by October 24th, 2022.

  4. Wranslide 2 pages back
    Indeed among the challenges facing Medicare, rorting is in the second tier and might even be seen as a symptom rather than a diagnosis.
    Unfortunately, after Littlefinger, it will take a very brave government to bring in reform

  5. Bullying in the adult corporate world also sucks.
    In the distant past I reported and stood up to serious ongoing workplace bullying of females (one Jewish lady lying on office floor in epileptic fits) on 3 occasions in 3 notable corporates.
    As a result I detrimentally was twice moved sideways/therefore I resigned and once sacked for my outspoken actions.
    And funnily enough all of the senior managers overseeing/overlooking and making hypocritical decisions for obvious company/personal reasons were actually females!

  6. 1. A lack of separation between the purchaser of medical services and the provider – a problem which every other OECD country sorted out during the last 20 years
    2. Fee for service rather than capitation/salary payment of medical staff
    3. Not so much inadequate staffing (medical, nursing and allied ) but inequitable and without an overall staffing strategy
    4. Lack of overall budget and service strategy

  7. Zoomster
    I’m very interested to know if the kids who bullied you were boys or girls. A female acquaintance of mine has often spoken to me about the bullying she received in high school at the hands of a group of girls who made her life hell. I have since learned that this is not at all uncommon. Girls can be right little bastards when they want to be.

    Interestingly she ran into one of them in the street a few years later who apologised to her for the way she had behaved. At least she had the decency to do that.

  8. “1. A lack of separation between the purchaser of medical services and the provider – a problem which every other OECD country sorted out during the last 20 years
    2. Fee for service rather than capitation/salary payment of medical staff
    3. Not so much inadequate staffing (medical, nursing and allied ) but inequitable and without an overall staffing strategy
    4. Lack of overall budget and service strategy”

    Just based on the GP’s I’ve seen / know over the last decade, and special mention to ones I know have committed suicide, they aren’t all living the high life on fraudulent gains. In fact if I was a GP I’m pretty sure I’d be regretting my life choices. The system is f*cked.

  9. WWP – absolutely right, which makes this reiteration of a 50 year old story more of an insult than a contribution to the discussion we should have started having 20 years ago.

  10. Oakeshott Country at 10:20 pm
    Thank you for that. It looks to this ‘civilian’ like one hell of a job for someone wanting to sort 1-4 out ,the opposition would be so fierce.

  11. Oakeshott Country at 10:27 pm
    The sudden appearance of 3-4 articles in some papers on the issue today screams ‘a campaign’ by someone. You’d have to suspect the government.

  12. I don’t think so poroti. Rorting has been around since Gough introduced Medibank and is inherent in fee for service payments. Indeed, he chose this form of payment because he knew that the profession would have never accepted capitation and, in case, he was lucky to get FFS past them.

    This current rehash is because someone working in the field has published a thesis on rorting. She was interviewed on tonight’s 7:30. Her reaction when told that one of the accused rorters said that they had faithfully used a billing program that she, herself, had designed was among the most embarrassing pieces of TV I have ever seen. She almost became physically sick.

    Her work also includes things that I would consider poor medical practice rather than pure rorting. Poor management of opioid addicts and radiotherapists who don’t know when to stop.

    In any case none of this is new but the ABC and Nine newspapers have copy which they claim is exclusive

  13. Oakeshott Country at 10:57 pm

    This current rehash is because someone working in the field has published a thesis on rorting…….have copy which they claim is exclusive

    Ah. Thanks, that would explain the sudden interest.

  14. “In any case none of this is new but the ABC and Nine newspapers have copy which they claim is exclusive”

    The partnership between ABC and Costello TV is very problematic.

  15. Domestic Violence is such a lingering curse.
    The small group I volunteer with doesn’t specialise in working with victims of domestic violence per se, but an enormous percentage of our work, perhaps 80% is inextricably involved with its causes, immediate effects and generational effects.
    Just today our group was involved in three seperate cases, all nasty and convoluted. For myself i worked on a case where the perpetrator has been in gaol for over a year but he has conducted a terror campaign for all that period. Today his partner was told that he will be released in about three weeks.
    We spent several hours with her today attempting to help her, but I have never seen a more terrified person. It is stomach turningly pitiful to see, and I feel so helpless and useless.
    Life without parole has its attraction sometime.

  16. porotisays:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 10:56 pm
    Alpha Zero at 10:43 pm
    They got their money’s worth out of the wall.
    _____________________
    It helps when you have friends in high places.

  17. C@tmomma @ #2148 Monday, October 17th, 2022 – 8:54 pm

    Okay, I’ll concede that, if there’s nothing there, then there’s nothing to worry about, but honestly, don’t you think it is just a bit of a stunt?

    Throwing soup on paintings is a stunt. UN torture inspections sounds more like…worthwhile audit? It’s a bit too serious, elaborate, and non-sensational (aside from the fact that the NSW government decided to block it) to be an effective stunt.

  18. “UN torture inspections sounds more like…worthwhile audit? It’s a bit too serious, elaborate, and non-sensational (aside from the fact that the NSW government decided to block it) to be an effective stunt.”

    When I was a law student, both under grad and post grad, I spent time at the police academy and in various prisons.

    The best cultural comparison I can share is that as a nation we normalised the torture and killing of refugees. No we didn’t normalise it, we celebrated it. Our prime minister made himself trophies celebrating the inhuman crimes against humanity he and the Govt committed with popular support.

    The idea that we have normalised in a prison context, things that objective experts would consider torture is no surprise. In fact it would be much more surprising if it wasn’t there.

  19. Taylormade says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 11:19 pm
    porotisays:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 10:56 pm
    Alpha Zero at 10:43 pm
    They got their money’s worth out of the wall.
    _____________________
    It helps when you have friends in high places.
    中华人民共和国
    LOL Taylormade

  20. Cronus @ #1881 Monday, October 17th, 2022 – 12:14 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 11:02 am
    Dog’s Brunch @ #1533 Monday, October 17th, 2022 – 10:52 am

    C@tmomma says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 10:46 am
    Dog’s Brunch,
    The Ukrainian Military is the global guinea pig for new war strategy.

    Not new apparently(Baghdad) but working well in this context. Toyota Hilux and Bushmasters at the pointy end apparently.
    Okay. I’ll watch it now. The narrator being a tosser kind of put me off.
    ———————————————————————————————

    I had a US friend (a logistics Lieutenant at the time) who was involved in the initial thunder run into Iraq in 2003. He said the adrenaline (fear based on the unknown) and the speed and momentum were such that when they finally stopped on the first day after a very bumpy ride, they realised their vehicle (I’m not certain of the type) had two blown tyres.

    C Sqdrn 1 Armoured Regiment (I think it was them)did a couple of these during the Vietnam war. The turret heads hated them.

  21. The problem with international inspections is that no country likes to submit to them.

    The second Gulf War was largely framed around the games Iraq was playing with the weapons inspections.

    To my knowledge the US refuses to allow any international inspections of its atomic industries.

    No country likes to have its sovereignty encroached upon.

  22. I’m going to put this one in the category of ‘interesting’:

    Yeysk, Russia: A Russian fighter plane has crashed into a residential building in the southern Russian city of Yeysk, engulfing apartments in a huge fireball, and officials were quoted as saying at least two people were killed.

    Video published by the military news channel Zvezda on Monday (Russia time) appeared to show explosions aboard the plane as it plunged towards the apartments.

    .. Yeysk is separated from occupied Russian territory in southern Ukraine by a narrow stretch of the Sea of Azov.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/russian-fighter-plane-crashes-into-apartments-in-southern-city-near-ukraine-20221018-p5bqk2.html

  23. Re WWP @11:26. ”…No we didn’t normalise it, we celebrated it. Our prime minister made himself trophies celebrating the inhuman crimes against humanity he and the Govt committed with popular support.”

    I think it interesting that the Worldwide Speakers Group doesn’t mention “stopping the boats” among Scott Morrison’s many supposed “achievements”. Why would that be? Was it just for domestic consumption? A gigantic dogwhistle (a bullhorn) which is embarrassing on the international stage?

  24. “ A third MP, Jamie Wallis, added told Ms Truss that she “no longer holds the confidence of the country or the parliamentary party”.

    Robert Halfon (MP) did not explicitly call for Ms Truss to resign, but did have some stinging words for her.

    He told Sky News that her and Mr Kwarteng “looked like libertarian jihadists and treated the whole country as kind of laboratory mice in which to carry out kind of ultra-ultra-free market experiments and this is not where the country is”.

    https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/uk-politics/uk-prime-minister-liz-truss-own-mps-call-for-her-to-quit-as-new-chancellor-jeremy-hunt-rushes-forward-economic-plan/news-story/06855dffc33f0688fd8a77893e8f2e5e

    So this is where the neo-liberal experiment is taking us? It’s the socio-economic version of Frankenstein’s monster (although I’m equally impressed with the description “libertarian jihadists”). Thank goodness for the election of Albo and Chalmers in this economic environment, steady hands.

  25. Bystander

    Girls.

    I was actually sort of lucky. They later raped a girl at a party with a bottle. (One of the many reasons why I sneer at the ‘wasn’t it wonderful to grow up in the seventies’ nostalgia…)

    Years later, I drove a group of friends (all guys, and I was driving because my boyfriend had lost his license…) down to Phillip Island in the old split screen Kombi. We stopped at a lonely beach, and there were two of the girls with their boyfriends.

    When I was heading back to the car, surrounded by my pack of men, one of the girls asked if I knew who they were!

    “Of course,” I said.

    That was it, but it seemed sort of satisfying.

    I don’t go to school reunions. I get multiple invitations. But I can’t really forgive those who just looked on and let themselves be instruments.

  26. C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 6:37 am
    Looks like I’m the only one up early to watch the sun rise.

    Not quite (chuckles), good morning C@T.

  27. i agree with bw on this point i think china moved motions at the human rights cowncil attacking us over our treatement ofaboriginals and asylum seekers but would not let pas rezulutions attacking them

  28. Good morning, Cronus! 🙂

    Did you read the story about the Russian fighter jet crashing into the apartment building? More asymmetric warfare?

  29. If you’re doing international inspections, you need to cover countries you think are not doing anything wrong (not saying that’s the case here) as well as the ones you think are suss. You can’t make assumptions and you can’t be seen to be singling out certain countries for special treatment.

  30. Aaron newton @ #2065 Tuesday, October 18th, 2022 – 6:47 am

    i agree with bw on this point i think china moved motions at the human rights cowncil attacking us over our treatement ofaboriginals and asylum seekers but would not let pas rezulutions attacking them

    It’s why the UN and its subsidiary bodies need serious reform, Aaron newton. How you achieve it when the roadblocks are the countries that are the root of the problems, I don’t know.

  31. Re:TPOF @ 12.16pm
    Thanks, TPOF, for bringing a little sense to this tiresome discussion – I would say debate, but a debate requires more nuance & reason.
    The Coalition set a huge trap in the design and implementation of the S1, S2 & S3 Tax Cuts.
    Despite, all the conversation being directed at the top end earners and there, close to $10, 000, largesse – wage and salary earners, at all income levels benefit from S3.
    These lower income earners – are the voters who Labor need to retain Government, despite the relative paltry tax cut which they are being offered. These people need that money in their pockets.
    Any amendments to S3 – need to favour these workers.
    Can we park this debate until 2024!

  32. nath says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 6:12 pm

    Snappy Tom says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 6:09 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 6:01 pm

    When you’re dealing with a politically cancerous policy, such as S3, it’s best to treat it early.
    ____________

    Evidence-free.
    _________
    You believe in Heaven. I mean come on.
    ____________

    Don’t pretend to speak for my theology. I don’t believe in “Heaven” as it is commonly understood – some idyllic existence enjoyed by the souls of the deceased (which “souls” existence independently of the body.)

    “Heaven” in my view, refers to moments of compassion, justice and peace in the midst of life.

  33. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 6:14 pm

    Of course, the minute Chalmers announces changes to S3 next year, he will be lauded by the PB commentariat.
    ____________

    I hope such an announcement happens NEXT YEAR. I would laud it because S3 is a political land mine / wedgie inflicted on the nation by the Coalition to try and bring on a “Labor will tax you more” non-debate. I would not, however, laud it if there is widespread opposition to amending S3 – that is one way in which the land mine would have worked.

    I am prepared to wear S3 in exchange for having a Labor govt which, as Boerwar catalogues from time to time, is better for the nation in a couple of dozen ways.

    I note also you’ve been calling for Labor to DITCH S3 NOW, not next year. You’ve suddenly back-flipped…

  34. nath says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 7:08 pm

    Dan Andrews is guilty of Genocide. The Genocide against Victorian Liberals has been calculated, effective and brutal.

    The Hate Dan crowd are definitely more unhinged than the Saint Dan crowd, but it is closer than some think.
    ____________

    The Battle of Waterloo was (according to Wellington) a close-run thing. The Battle of Britain wasn’t.

  35. Torchbearer, Zoomster and all others who’ve experienced bullying…

    I hope you’re finding (and continue to find) well-deserved peace.

  36. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/19/liz-truss-chief-of-staff-mark-fullbrook-lynton-crosby-lobbying-firm

    Liz Truss’s chief of staff still owns 10% of Lynton Crosby’s lobbying firm

    A spokesperson for CT Group said it was wrong to suggest that the prime minister’s chief of staff owning a stake in one of the UK’s most prominent lobbying businesses created a conflict of interest

    CT Group was also involved in a series of unbranded Facebook pages that appeared to be a grassroots campaign for a hard Brexit in 2019.

    While at CT Group, Fullbrook worked closely with Boris Johnson – who gave a seat in the House of Lords to Fullbrook’s wife in 2019 – and oversaw Zac Goldsmith’s losing 2016 London mayoral campaign, which was dogged by accusations of racism.

    Thankfully Australia doesn’t have peerages where the principle qualifying criteria appears to be knowing which pocket to p*ss in

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