Resolve Strategic: Labor 39, Coalition 30, Greens 12 (open thread)

A new federal poll finds Labor maintaining a commanding lead, with most undecided on the question of stage three tax cuts.

Newspoll may be spinning on its wheels, but the Age/Herald has come through with the third Resolve Strategic poll of federal voting intention since the election, three weeks after the last. This one has Labor on 39% (steady), the Coalition on 30% (down two), the Greens on 12% (up two), One Nation on 5% (down one), the United Australia Party on 3% (up one) and independents on 9% (up one). Resolve Strategic doesn’t publish its own two-party numbers, but a fun new tool from Armarium Interreta allows you to punch in primary vote numbers and get a two-party result based on preference flows from the May election, which suggests a Labor lead of about 58-42.

Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is 60% (steady) compared with 25% for poor and very poor (up one), and he leads 53-18 on preferred prime minister (53-19 last time). Peter Dutton has a positive rating of 30% (up two) and a negative rating of 41% (up one). The poll also had questions on the budget and tax, the most interesting of which finds 34% supporting and 13% opposing the repeal of the stage three tax cuts, with fully 53% “undecided/neutral”, and on the Optus security breach. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1604.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,194 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 39, Coalition 30, Greens 12 (open thread)”

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  1. wranslide @ #2095 Monday, October 17th, 2022 – 8:00 pm

    C@tmommasays:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 7:34 pm
    Where’s the torture in Australian jails? Poor treatment, yes I’ll cop to that, but torture!?!

    ~~~

    What do you call the Dylan Voller treatment?

    So a historical case that led to a NT RC and compensation? That’s the best you can come up with?

  2. A warm up T20 Match happened between Australia and India today in Brisbane in preparation for T20 World cup.
    India, batting first, made 186
    Australia chasing, reached 171/4 . Then lost 6 wickets for 9 runs. Australia needed 8 in 20th over with 4 wickets in hand. They they lost 4 wickets in last 4 balls to be all out for 180 runs.

  3. Bi, Mian – MBBS PhD
    @DoctorDoctorBi
    ·
    2h
    Replying to
    @DoctorDoctorBi
    1. $8B claim. This is an unsubstantiated claim that has been around for a while now and reused for this piece. Many in the profession called for the evidence to be released to see how this *estimate* is derived. The number is absurd because…

  4. Mmmmmm

    Senator Linda Reynolds has been accused of attempting to “coach” defence lawyers during the cross-examination of her former staffer Brittany Higgins and inappropriately seeking to obtain transcripts of her evidence prior to coming to court.

    Reynolds on Monday began her evidence to the ACT supreme court, which has previously heard allegations from Higgins that she felt pressure from her then minister not to pursue a police complaint over her alleged rape at the hands of colleague and fellow Coalition staffer Bruce Lehrmann.

    The court heard explosive evidence that Reynolds had sought to obtain transcripts of Higgins’ evidence prior to coming to court to give her own testimony.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/oct/17/senator-linda-reynolds-accused-of-attempting-to-coach-defence-lawyers-in-cross-examination-of-brittany-higgins


  5. Shellbellsays:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 8:06 pm
    Ven

    Finch scored 76 so will remain in the team for an eternity.

    shellbell
    It is good Finch scored 76.
    But the stunning results of T20 World cup qualifiers is that
    Namibia defeated Sri Lanka by 55 runs
    Scotland defeated West Indies by 42 runs

  6. Shellbell:

    I wish the ABC long form reports would avoid shots of people doing mundane things like walking down the road or having a drive.

    The old favourite was the important person collecting a file from reception and then pretending to read it.

    The Chaser had a great bit on those sorts of shots back in the day:

    https://youtu.be/kuPdnTHSHH8

  7. Can that UN Mob investigate torture here on PB?

    I mean Rex and S3. Then P1 chimes in (Nath I am leaving you out cobber as per our detente). WWP with the sky falling in routine, Mundo and the death of the Labor Government.

    Then we get Taylormade taking a bus with some crazies and and inferring the Premier of Victoria is some sort of mass murderer!

    Now I’m a pretty relaxed and tolerant bloke but can that UN Mob help with this cruel and unusual punishment?

  8. The attacks on rex aregeting a bit over the top he is intitled to his opinions however personaly i think his to critical tolabor but we dont need poasters attacking evry poast they disagree with theargument that we in labor should be a small targit in fear of being attacked buy news corp actualy leads tolosing votes on the left to the greens to people who do not want labor is government like shoebrige carying on about torcher in nsw prizons maybi the un inspecters could go to israil or us or rusia china befor waisting time in nsw the un human rights body never has a problim with human rights abuse in china they only targit western nations

  9. i think the stage three tax cuts should go labor needs to apeel to the base not just thenews corp crowd that is whiy labor is sceen as not standing for much if labor adopted some of rexsis ideas labor could winn voters that lean green shoebrige is quite extreme as much as thorp tried to make a law that no matter what an inddiginis chield can never be removed to a non indigenis no matter what

  10. I think it would be excellent to have an international organisation that has unlimited rights to go into jails anywhere in the world at any time and totally unpredictably.
    That should apply to Australia.
    The problem is that in this domain the UN has close to zero credibility.
    Shoebridge would know this but tacitly ignores it.
    He is hunting other game.
    As noted above, Bandt had better watch his back.

  11. That the key expert the ABC/Adele Ferguson relied upon in a fraud case is Dr Faux and they caught her out in the sense that her IP/software was being used to facilitate such fraud was incroyable.

  12. Aaron newton,
    Labor don’t need to win voters who lean Green, they need to hang onto the ones that won them the election and they have never been Greens voters I’m guessing.

  13. @Aaron Shoebridge is a smart operator, and a smart cookie. When he was a NSW MLC he seemed to be able to get lots of media attention for the NSW Greens – think his “Sniff Off” website, his holding the Police Commissioner to account, and various other initiatives. He also knows how to play the factional game inside the Greens well. I don’t agree with everything he does but he’s certainly one of the most effective MPs the Greens have had. In the state party he aligned with the left faction but I wouldn’t label him as far-left or extremist in the traditional sense. He also used to be a member of the Australian Democrats back in the day. It would be somewhat hypocritical of him though if he ever did stand for Greens leader someday, as at state level he was against the Greens having a parliamentary leader at all.

  14. Cashes chief off staff happind to be a senyor staffer to cash was a long time nsw liberal party oficial and one of her advisors went on to work for morrison and currentlythe deputy leader chieff off staff suprised cash has stayed this long if she was a labor senater she would have been forced out after awu raids it was her membership of mathias cormans faction the clan and the fact her father was a former wa liberal state mp jorje cash thathelped her stick around there is lots of dynastys in tthe liberals as wells the courts downers hodgmans etc bairds looks like starmer will be uks next pm

  15. It’s birdwatch week. Younger son just about to arrive with night-time stealth camera to record the blackbird duo nesting outside my bedroom window.

    Pretty, well when I say pretty, I mean massively untidy nest, but devoted couple. Hope I didn’t make them feel so insecure they need to abandon the nest.

    Unlikely, though, have seen the male today robbing my worm-infested compost!!

    Catch you later.

  16. Q: There are plans to ban smoking in WA jails

    NSW banned smoking more than 10 years ago.

    As for bullying…..not sure if people know what real bullying is like. I was a scrawny, poor, aboriginal, gay kid in the Outer Western Suburbs. I was beaten, cigarette burnt, and stripped of all my clothes so often on the school bus I was forced to walk to and from school. I was beaten and sexually threatened so often in the playground that I had to spend all non-class time in teacher supervision. Sport (my passion) was obviously out, so I was assigned duties in the storeroom. My bag was frequently stolen and thrown in the creek behind the school.
    The upside was that I spent so much time in the library I ended up school dux….a victory of sorts!

  17. Interesting AMA intends to defend the doctors caught out by the ABC/Adele Ferguson.

    As I understand it doctors need a provider number to bill medicare. If it is as bad as ABC/Adele Ferguson have indicated the AMA needs to take care, the power balance between the AMA and Medicare may change with the AMA losing the in-house power to deal with rouge doctors.

  18. Boerwar @ #2126 Monday, October 17th, 2022 – 8:49 pm

    k2
    The females will sit very tight when approached. But their little hearts would be going at a great rate of knots.

    Only discovered her yesterday. Cleaning up tonnes of oak leaves shed from the magnificent tree next door. Felt like I was being watched. I turned round to see this little bird, sitting on a nest, pretending she wasn’t there. Yep, she did look frightened but assiduously avoided my gaze. I told her that’s the last she’d see of me for a few weeks; and not to be frightened. And left. A little while later, couldn’t help myself, I peeked from my bedroom window, the male was feeding her. She’s still there today. Now even. See ya!

  19. To be honest, bullying was not that prevalent at my school. It was one of the most deprived in the state, bottom 3 socio economic data apparently. There was not bullying so much as actually pitched battles between gangs, spilling out into weekends.

    civilians were left out of it mostly. If they stayed out of the gang culture.

  20. Bravo, Torchbearer! So glad you survived it all..

    My Son #2 was bullied mercilessly on the school bus as well. It’s where the real nasty ones take their cruelty out on kids away from the teachers’ eyes. My son was spat on, his bag was jumped on and he was called a ‘Retard’. I don’t know how he survived it all either. When he came home crying, after getting off the bus, all I could do was hug him and tell him that what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger. Also that the fault was with the kids, they were the ones with the problems, not him.

    One time though he did try and fight back. I think this one particular kid kept pulling his hair, really yanking at it, from behind. So my son turned around and slapped him. Well, before I had time to hear the whole story, the other kid’s mother was on the phone yelling at me and saying she was going to go to the police and have my son charged with assault. Well, you’ve never seen a quicker climb down than you did from that woman when I laid out in explicit detail, chapter and verse, what her son had been doing to my son on the regular. I said, if you like, we could go to the police together. 🙂

    Anyway, my son is a productive member of society and the other kid has turned into a deadbeat.

  21. Q: Jesus Christ Torchbearer. I’m sorry that happened to you.

    And one of the joys of the gay thing, is you cop abuse and bullying from your parents and siblings as well…there was no escape.

  22. [‘Mr Drumgold told the court Ms Reynolds sent the first message to Mr Whybrow on October 6 at 4.27pm – just half an hour after Ms Higgins finished her first day of cross-examination.

    The message read: ‘Hi do you have the daily transcripts? If so, are you able to provide my lawyer?’

    She sent another text one minute later: ‘Also if you have text messages between Brittany and Nicky they may be revealing.’

    ‘Nicky’ refers to Nicole Hamar, who was called to the witness stand last week.

    Ms Reynolds – who recently returned from a trip to Rwanda – was called as a witness for the prosecution, but she admitted to texting the defence lawyer during Ms Higgins’ cross-examination in October.

    She was also asked why her boyfriend was sitting in the back of the courtroom during the first week of the trial.’]

    The best that can be said of Reynolds is that she’s as dumb as a sack of hammers, her appearance in the witness box today clearly evidencing same. Former Morrison ministers should come to the realisation that today’s proceeding is but a harbinger for heaps more appearances in either the witness box or the dock. And to think that Reynolds once held the Defence portfolio – do’h.

  23. Torchbearer says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 9:10 pm
    Q: Jesus Christ Torchbearer. I’m sorry that happened to you.

    And one of the joys of the gay thing, is you cop abuse and bullying from your parents and siblings as well…there was no escape.
    中华人民共和国
    Your a good cobber and you have decent mates here. For all our rumbles, PB is inhabited by good folk. You stay safe digger.

  24. Translated from the French.

    Emmanuel Macron
    @EmmanuelMacron

    Officiel du gouvernement – France
    In Paris, 61 years ago, the repression of a demonstration by Algerian separatists left hundreds injured and dozens dead. Inexcusable crimes for the Republic. France does not forget the victims. Truth is the only path to a shared future.
    7:18 PM · Oct 17, 2022
    ·Twitter for iPhone

    The relevance to truth telling is obvious.

  25. Re Torchbearer @8:52.

    That’s a terrible story. Hopefully you’re now enjoying the best revenge – living well, massive success. School dux was a good start.

  26. Where’s the torture in Australian jails? Poor treatment, yes I’ll cop to that, but torture!?!

    If it doesn’t exist, what’s the problem with the UN coming in, doing their inspection, and saying so?

    And if it does exist, wouldn’t you rather find out?

    Has Labor already won the NSW state election or something? Can’t see any other reason for piling on the UN when there’s an obvious opportunity to pile on the NSW state government for trying to block torture inspections, of all things.

  27. Not to the extent of Torchbearer’s but…

    Assaulted. Trapped in small places and then objects thrown in on me. Chewing gum stuck in my hair. Possessions stolen.

    No one was allowed to talk to me, because that would put me on the outer (remember a couple of conversations conducted with boys who concealed themselves behind bushes so they could talk to me…)

    I turned it to my advantage to some extent – knowing that no one would sit with me, I would walk into a classroom, choose a seat next to someone in a spot I liked, and they’d move so I’d have the whole desk to myself.

    Worse, however, was that I internalised it – I thought I deserved to be bullied.

    It all ended the day a girl in one of my classes told my mother what was going on, and my mother went straight to the school.

    I now think how stupid I was not to ‘dob’.

    Years and years later, I sent a huge message of thanks to the girl who told my mother, wanting her to know that she had changed my life.

  28. Another Morrison decision is overturned.

    Morrison’s Jerusalem move canned

    Labor has quietly dropped recognition of West Jerusalem as the capital of Israel after Scott Morrison formally recognised it in ­December 2018. (Murdoch’s Oz)

  29. BBC News – Humiliation for Truss

    The Truss programme for government is dead.

    Nearly every element of her prospectus has just been shredded by her new chancellor.

    “We will reverse almost all the tax measures” from the mini-budget, Jeremy Hunt said. What an extraordinary thing to hear.

    Not only has the planned cut in the basic rate of income tax been binned, so has the plan originally from Rishi Sunak to cut it in 2024.

    The prime minister, who promised to cut taxes by more than her rival over the summer, is now keeping them higher than he planned.

    And even the flagship energy support package, the crutch upon which the prime minister has leant whenever asked a tricky question in the last few weeks, has shrivelled vastly.

    It is now a six month package, not a two year one. What a day.

    And it’s not even lunchtime.

  30. zoomster says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 9:28 pm
    Not to the extent of Torchbearer’s but…

    Assaulted. Trapped in small places and then objects thrown in on me. Chewing gum stuck in my hair. Possessions stolen.

    No one was allowed to talk to me, because that would put me on the outer (remember a couple of conversations conducted with boys who concealed themselves behind bushes so they could talk to me…)

    I turned it to my advantage to some extent – knowing that no one would sit with me, I would walk into a classroom, choose a seat next to someone in a spot I liked, and they’d move so I’d have the whole desk to myself.

    Worse, however, was that I internalised it – I thought I deserved to be bullied.

    It all ended the day a girl in one of my classes told my mother what was going on, and my mother went straight to the school.

    I now think how stupid I was not to ‘dob’.

    Years and years later, I sent a huge message of thanks to the girl who told my mother, wanting her to know that she had changed my life.
    中华人民共和国
    Good on you cobber. I know I pull legs occasionally here but you and Torchbearer are ridgey didge. Thanks both for sharing.


  31. Torchbearersays:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 8:52 pm
    Q: There are plans to ban smoking in WA jails

    NSW banned smoking more than 10 years ago.

    As for bullying…..not sure if people know what real bullying is like. I was a scrawny, poor, aboriginal, gay kid in the Outer Western Suburbs. I was beaten, cigarette burnt, and stripped of all my clothes so often on the school bus I was forced to walk to and from school. I was beaten and sexually threatened so often in the playground that I had to spend all non-class time in teacher supervision. Sport (my passion) was obviously out, so I was assigned duties in the storeroom. My bag was frequently stolen and thrown in the creek behind the school.
    The upside was that I spent so much time in the library I ended up school dux….a victory of sorts!

    Sorry to hear that Torchbearer. Being the dux and torchbearer in the end was the sweetest revenge.

  32. A R @ #2143 Monday, October 17th, 2022 – 9:26 pm

    Where’s the torture in Australian jails? Poor treatment, yes I’ll cop to that, but torture!?!

    If it doesn’t exist, what’s the problem with the UN coming in, doing their inspection, and saying so?

    And if it does exist, wouldn’t you rather find out?

    Has Labor already won the NSW state election or something? Can’t see any other reason for piling on the UN when there’s an obvious opportunity to pile on the NSW state government for trying to block torture inspections, of all things.

    Okay, I’ll concede that, if there’s nothing there, then there’s nothing to worry about, but honestly, don’t you think it is just a bit of a stunt? We have evidence tonight from someone who worked in the system for a decade that they never saw anything amounting to torture.

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