We’re now five weeks without a Newspoll, which is unfortunate from my perspective as it’s time for a new post and I’ve been too busy working on my Victorian election guide (which should be up later this week) to have put much thought into how one might look. There’s always the regular Roy Morgan two-party figures from its weekly update video, which have lately found it moving to the rest of the pack by recording growth in Labor’s leads, the latest result putting it at 55-45 after a 54.5-45.5 result the previous week.
Elsewhere:
• Shaun Ratcliff at YouGov offers findings from its Australian Cooperative Election Survey, conducted during the May election campaign, that appear to suggest the age effect for the Coalition primary vote doesn’t amount to much up to the age of about 40, but accelerates dramatically thereafter. The implication that support for the Coalition is heavily concentrated among the very oldest voters would not appear to bode well for them in the short to medium term.
• Antony Green and Adrian Beaumont at The Conversation both sound off against Victoria’s retention of group voting tickets for the Legislative Council, making the state the last bastion of preference harvesting following recent reforms in Western Australia.
• The turnout for the recent state by-election for North West Central in Western Australia, which has the state’s second highest indigenous population share, came in at just 47.7%, or 5335 out of an enrolment of 11,189. The Nationals have blamed the Western Australian Electoral Commission for insufficient advertising. Merome Beard of the Nationals won the seat with 3071 votes after preferences (60.5%) to 2008 for Liberal candidate Kim Baston (39.5%).
• Rod Culleton, who ran at the May election as the lead Senate candidate of the Great Australian Party in Western Australia, has been charged with providing false information on his nomination form. This included a declaration that he was not an undischarged bankrupt when the National Personal Insolvency Index identified him as such, although Culleton insists this was not the case. Culleton was elected as a One Nation Senator in Western Australia in 2016 but subsequently disqualified after being declared bankrupt by the Federal Court.
Well, this sounds much more reasonable:
Socrates, now I’ve got you. I understand Ukraine has specifically requested artillery and ammunition from us (I think a further 6 howitzers, unless I’m mistaken), and of course they have standing requests for more finance from wherever they can source it (I think they needs about USD5b a month to keep their resistance going). But I doubt (hope?) that the idea of sending these troops as assistance has been plucked entirely out of Australia’s governing backsides, but rather has indeed been the result of discussions with Ukraine. But you are right to raise the opportunity costs of any Australian decision, this one included.
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 6:26 pm
William Bowe @ #533 Tuesday, October 11th, 2022 – 6:07 pm
The Ukraine/Russia stuff is interesting.
I had a couple of ‘WTF’ moments as I listened but for a really challenging take, head over to the Useful Idiots podcast and find the interview in the last week or so with Col. Doug Macgregor.
Here he is on Tucker Carlson’s show a few weeks ago saying the Ukraine’s Kharkiv offensive had failed and its total defeat was imminent.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/tucker-carlson-ukraine-russia-guest-b2165684.html
Lol William Bowe.
(In a good way)
____________
Perhaps the name of the podcast is miss-spelt…Useless Idiots?
Macarthur,
I refer you to the link I posted @ 6.43pm. It gives you the whole story. Basically, it was just a thought bubble.
Snappy Tom,
There appears to be a never-ending supply of them these days. 😀
“Perhaps the name of the podcast is miss-spelt…Useless Idiots?”
Great to see you are writing off, without consideration, not just a contributor but two journalists as well. Excellent cancelling. Impressive.
WeWantPaul says:
Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 6:54 pm
“Perhaps the name of the podcast is miss-spelt…Useless Idiots?”
Great to see you are writing off, without consideration, not just a contributor but two journalists as well. Excellent cancelling. Impressive.
____________
Appreciate the affirmation.
WWP @ 6:47pm. Maybe let’s call a truce? I only ever said “Good” to a report of us further materially helping Ukraine fight Russia, not because of some sort of perverse love of war, but out of a hope that the more help Ukraine gets, the faster they can repel this invasion and so the sooner they can free their enemy-occupied regions from the genocide being inflicted on them there. I do think this will result in less overall human suffering than would a Ukrainian capitulation on Russia’s terms now.
Something from one of the horses’ mouths re troops.Paywalled.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/australia-considers-sending-trainers-to-help-ukraine-troops-20221011-p5bos0
Good to see Thorpe walking it back a bit on Voice. Actually spoke to some pretty engaged indigenous people in Victoria last week and even though there is diversity of opinion on the order of things….no one actually wants to screw anything up on getting the Uluru statement implemented. Yup, some idiots around but generally a bit of political wisdom there. Suspect there will be more alignment as the referendum gets closer and better defined. Something I really think ALP will be able to manage with respect and maturity.
C@tmomma, thank you for the link to the article, properly contextualising the “troops to Ukraine” idea. As Socrates and I were discussing, Ukraine really needs artillery, ammo and money more than troop training – although maybe the troop training idea was merely meant to be operational training for the artillery in any event.
Good to see that Lydia Thorpe has decided not to play a spoiler role with the Voice. It will be an uphill battle as it is, much tougher than that for Marriage Equality.
Macarthur says:
Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 6:15 pm
WWP, one further point. To your knowledge, has Poroti ever condemned Russia’s actions in this war against Ukraine? If so, I’ll be delighted to be shown my concerns are misplaced.
___________
As far as I know poroti is not on the side of mass murdering shitbags.
@Upnorth
Interesting observations. Thanks. I will look forward to your updates on both countries in the weeks ahead.
By the by, a couple of years ago I heard serious suggestions that Johor state was thinking of becoming part of Singapore! Meaningful talks at a fairly senior level on both sides, I heard.
Sending Oz military personnel to train Ukrainian troops is hardly big deal in that Oz service personnel have been sent overseas to support this or that worthy cause since a contingent when to Sudan and to South Africa…
As far the argument that our efforts are so small as to make no difference, this has not cut any ice for about the same period from WW1 – through Korea – Malaya – Afghanistan and sundry doubtful causes over the years.
What’s the problem? In the case of Ukraine there is a stronger moral argument than many earlier conflicts Oz service personnel have died for…….
“WWP @ 6:47pm. Maybe let’s call a truce? I only ever said “Good” to a report of us further materially helping Ukraine fight Russia, not because of some sort of perverse love of war, but out of a hope that the more help Ukraine gets, the faster they can repel this invasion and so the sooner they can free their enemy-occupied regions from the genocide being inflicted on them there. I do think this will result in less overall human suffering than would a Ukrainian capitulation on Russia’s terms now.”
Fair call.
‘poroti says:
Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 6:45 pm
Boerwar at 6:00 pm
My main error is occasionally forgetting advice I heard someone give my father years ago, “never argue with a Dutchman” As it happens an aunt married a post war Dutch immigrant. So I have an Uncle Kees.’
————————
Haha. My nuanced advice would be to enjoy an argument like a Dutchman enjoys an argument. “Kees’ is a common name in my extended family. It died out when the Netherlanders switched from being Deutchephiles to Anglophiles after WW2 and chosen first names were often anglo names.
nath @ Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 7:09 pm
———————-
Shhhhhhh… let others here still think I’m just your sock puppet.
The Ukraine side is being very clear. Forget the troops. Forget the training. Give us ammo, artillery, and bushmasters.
I see that the Greens Spokesperson on Aboriginal Affairs and Aboriginal Health does not want Indigenous people to be hurt any more.
The Greens owe those present who put the Statement from the Heart together a sincere apology.
Full credit to Burney, Dodson et al who, with 100% support from Albanese, have quietly reached out to the Greens and got them back where they ‘naturally’ belong on the Voice Referendum: in the cart.
That this is reflected in what appears to be a grudging acknowledgement that the Greens’ Spokesperson for Aboriginal Affairs and Aboriginal Health will not be campaigning for the no case is something of a relief.
I assume that further crabwalking will be forthcoming.
The article in the AFR is very interesting given what Matthew Knox has written in the Age/ SMH this afternoon.
Knox wrote that the Ukraine Ambassador welcomes the suggestion of Australian troops helping to train Ukraine troops.
Both articles cannot be correct can they ?
He has probably been cancelled too, so definitely don’t go to the Lever Time podcast and listen to the recent podcast interview with Douglas Rushkoff to discuss his new book, Survival of the Richest: Escape Fantasies of the Tech Billionaires. Not as many wtf moments as the Cancelled Colonel, and interesting in a less punchy way, regardless of how much of his thinking you take on board as legit. A tiny bit too much mary poppins for my taste.
I asssume that Australian engineers are doing careful examinations of every single Bushmaster that has been damaged or destroyed thus far.
Excellent learnings to improve the next batch.
The Matthew Knox article also suggests any training would be undertaken in the UK where NZ troops have been training Ukraine troops for a period of time.
Who is right and who is wrong ?
poroti @ #609 Tuesday, October 11th, 2022 – 6:58 pm
Not paywalled.
“Holdenhillbilly says:
Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 5:50 pm
BREAKING: UK unemployment rate falls to 3.5%, the lowest since 1974.”
I think that the real unemployment rate is about double than that.
What I do find interesting re the AFR article are the “ quotes” from the Ambassador.
Australia and Ukraine are in active discussion over a military support package and the Ambassador has apparently gone public with a “ stick it where the sun don’t shine “ over the training suggestion.
Surely it would be a more diplomatic approach to express these views in private and present a united public front with Marles thanking Australia for the offer such as the “ quotes” attributed to him by Matthew Knox.
Anyway, what the fuck would I know.
@Boer:
On the topic of the continued relevance of tanks:
https://youtu.be/kxzs-qHnkqI
doyley @ #251 Tuesday, October 11th, 2022 – 7:31 pm
I can’t find the Malcolm Knox article on the SMH/Age home page?
Cat,
It is still up on the Age online.
Cheers.
When I woke up this morning I tuned into Radio National. “Australia to send troops to Ukraine” – WTF? It seemed, shall we say, Abbottesque. I later read in the New Daily that Australia was considering sending trainers with our equipment. Well, that made more sense. It wouldn’t involve large numbers nor would they be involved in combat.
Then late in the day (that I became aware of), the Ukraine Ambassador says we don’t need trainers.
So it seems to have been a thought-bubble floated by … someone in the Government? … that escaped and ran round and round all day until the Ukraine ambassador’s statement became known.
If something in the media seems ridiculous or untrue it probably is.
As Ukraine is rapidly expanding their army and one of the reasons why it has been so successful at doing so is their troops are being trained all over the place, it would be surprised if the offer for support in this area was turned down. I suspect the AFR is going to be seriously embarrassed.
Steve,
It appears the Ambassador has made contradictory statements re traning assistance if both the AFR and Age/ SMH are to be believed.
Not very diplomatic of him I would suggest.
The other option is one of the two “ journos “ who, by chance, are from the same stable is talking out of his arse.
Or perhaps both are.
Who knows.
Cheers.
Steve777 @ #631 Tuesday, October 11th, 2022 – 8:02 pm
Perhaps the intention was to send our personnel to be trained by the Ukranians?
That would make a lot more sense.
C@tmomma at 7:44 pm
Well you get that when you have subscription eh ;). It was certainly paywalled when posted though. Coorey must really want the story out and about for whatever reason.
BTW,
Marles never said troops would be sent to Ukraine.
C@tmomma @ #601 Tuesday, October 11th, 2022 – 6:50 pm
It certainly does. However, it does not fit the confected outrage that has been on display here all day by the usual suspects. Including you 🙁
I think the Ukraine ambassador may be at cross purposes with the suggestion of Australian trainers.
Major Gen. Mick Ryan (ret) recently suggested that Australia donate all our M1 Abrams, soon to be retired ASLAVs, a hand-full of the New Boxer ARV, most of our Howitzers, together with more Bushmasters and the Hawkei’s that Ukraine has already expressed an interest in, and work with the Ukrainians in developing a new combined arms brigade. obviously most of our training knowledge would relate to the operational of this equipment, and the Ukrainians would be responsible for redesigning the order of battle, based on all their hard earned knowledge of fighting the war this year. However, this would be a two way street – we could probably learn a thing or two from the Ukrainian’s experience and hence ‘tweak’ Plan Beersheba as we roll out new M1M2 Sep3 Abrams, Boxers, IFVs and various armed support vehicles in our combat brigades this decade. Very useful exercise given the defence force review underway …
doyley @ #260 Tuesday, October 11th, 2022 – 8:02 pm
Couldn’t see it, mate. 🙂
poroti @ #265 Tuesday, October 11th, 2022 – 8:12 pm
Mine was an Andrew Tillett story:
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/australia-considers-sending-trainers-to-help-ukraine-troops-20221011-p5bos0
Now we’ve got competing stories in the same outlet!
Cat,
It is still up on the Age in my world.
Just scroll down until the politics section and there she blows.
“ Australia mulls sending defence staff to train Ukraine troops.”
Sorry, but that is about as technical as this ol computer illiterate can be.
Cheers.
Macarthur
“ C@tmomma, thank you for the link to the article, properly contextualising the “troops to Ukraine” idea. As Socrates and I were discussing, Ukraine really needs artillery, ammo and money more than troop training – although maybe the troop training idea was merely meant to be operational training for the artillery in any event.”
Yes that is a fair summary, I think we are agreed.
Also as per Andrew Earlwood’s comment, if other specialist training like how to run a unit of ASLAVs or Abrams we could send would be beneficial to the Ukrainians, then I’m fine with it.
And I agree it might be wise to send some senior NCOs and mid level officers there, not to train, but to learn.
When the econmy was going bad under morrison the right wing media saidit was all international factors nothing to do with morrison now that labor is in power evry thing is albaneses fault even the energy rises and interest rates
doyley @ #271 Tuesday, October 11th, 2022 – 8:23 pm
Thanks, got it! I had to click through on the Politics section. 🙂
Ven
“ Cronus
What I don’t understand is why are voters in general in QLD and Dickson in particular don’t see what other voters in country see about Dutton?
Baffling to put it mildly. If not for 38% in QLD, LNP vote will be in early 20s or even less than 20%. LNP has 21 seats in parliament from QLD. Liberal leader is from QLD. Nationals leader is from QLD.”
———————————————————————————————
Ven
I truly am bewildered (as a QLDer). Sure, this is an old white conservative state but really not that different I wouldn’t imagine from say WA or SA so that’s not an excuse. We happily manage to elect ALP state governments a significant amount of the time so no excuse there. We have a regular inflow of interstate immigrants which along with raising the IQ levels must have other positive impacts though I suppose many are older folks and of course we know they have tendencies towards voting Liberal. We are still quite homogenous relative to NSW and VIC so that may be a little detrimental but I wouldn’t imagine the socio-economic differences are significant either.
There is a reticence towards change outside the south-east corner so I think that may be an issue but I’m not sure just how different that is or why in comparison to other states. Although not extensive these elements together cover a broad range of issues but clearly none are so obvious as to explain QLD’s federal voting habits. It’s an absolute mystery to me but on the issue of Dutton in my electorate I would go further, I consider us culpable. We really enjoy the kindness and apparent decency and intelligence of our neighbours but as a group they are unquestionably Coalition voters. I doubt they could explain their reasoning to us though imo, they could be considered as insufficiently inquisitive politically and liable to unquestioningly believe long held Coalition myths.
Queensland has a higher proportion of its population outside of its capital city than NSW or Victoria. Meanwhile, WA and SA are basically the capital city plus a big back yard.
Summary: Queensland has a higher proportion of regional voters.
“What I don’t understand is why are voters in general in QLD and Dickson in particular don’t see what other voters in country see about Dutton?”
If you have a look at William’s election guide for Dickson, there are plenty of red booths – just not enough to outweigh the blue booths. (Maybe next election.)
https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2022/HR.htm?s=Dickson
Andrew_Earlwood,
We can’t ship boxers or M1’s over there, they both have export controls on them. Probably the aslavs too with that 25mm cannon.
I would support Hawkie’s, Bushmasters, More Arty, our whole M113 fleet. And sure, a training team to poland to help. Though we could even send support and rear echelon support and try and setup repair and maintenance chains via poland.
Anyways. The brits are pumping out ukranian Infantry at a great rate of knots. Like 30K every 6 weeks. They are getting a compressed course. Also, with the deep snow and mud of winter coming we should just start up the bushmaster production line and get cracking.
“ We can’t ship boxers or M1’s over there, they both have export controls on them. Probably the aslavs too with that 25mm cannon.”
What does that even mean? Who has imposed the export controls? Our government? the yanks? Who? Surely its a case of ‘what has been done, can be undone’. At a stroke of pen … genuine question: what am I missing?
‘A reputation for total ruthlessness’: General Surovikin takes charge of Russian troops in Ukraine