We’re now five weeks without a Newspoll, which is unfortunate from my perspective as it’s time for a new post and I’ve been too busy working on my Victorian election guide (which should be up later this week) to have put much thought into how one might look. There’s always the regular Roy Morgan two-party figures from its weekly update video, which have lately found it moving to the rest of the pack by recording growth in Labor’s leads, the latest result putting it at 55-45 after a 54.5-45.5 result the previous week.
Elsewhere:
• Shaun Ratcliff at YouGov offers findings from its Australian Cooperative Election Survey, conducted during the May election campaign, that appear to suggest the age effect for the Coalition primary vote doesn’t amount to much up to the age of about 40, but accelerates dramatically thereafter. The implication that support for the Coalition is heavily concentrated among the very oldest voters would not appear to bode well for them in the short to medium term.
• Antony Green and Adrian Beaumont at The Conversation both sound off against Victoria’s retention of group voting tickets for the Legislative Council, making the state the last bastion of preference harvesting following recent reforms in Western Australia.
• The turnout for the recent state by-election for North West Central in Western Australia, which has the state’s second highest indigenous population share, came in at just 47.7%, or 5335 out of an enrolment of 11,189. The Nationals have blamed the Western Australian Electoral Commission for insufficient advertising. Merome Beard of the Nationals won the seat with 3071 votes after preferences (60.5%) to 2008 for Liberal candidate Kim Baston (39.5%).
• Rod Culleton, who ran at the May election as the lead Senate candidate of the Great Australian Party in Western Australia, has been charged with providing false information on his nomination form. This included a declaration that he was not an undischarged bankrupt when the National Personal Insolvency Index identified him as such, although Culleton insists this was not the case. Culleton was elected as a One Nation Senator in Western Australia in 2016 but subsequently disqualified after being declared bankrupt by the Federal Court.
Morning all. Thanks William for the lead in discussion of movements in Morgan. I think the age effect in Liberal support is very real from my anecdotal experience handing out HTVs in Sturt earlier this year. Old voters skewed Liberal, young voters skewed Green and Labor support was more mixed.
Even in Sturt, this age effect combined with gentrification does not bode well. If current trends continue I believe Sturt is winnable for Labor in 2025. It may be winnable for a high profile Teal now.
Apologies for my banging on about defence spending but when everyone understands what the financial consequences of Liberal mismanagement of Defense spending over the past decade have been, we will hear a lot more. This ABC article hints at multiple problems, with a $6.5 billion blowout in projects not counting the loss on subs.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-09/offshore-patrol-vessels-program-delay-costs-mount/101517060
Delay and cost blowouts in OPVs are not surprising. First establish one production line in ASC, build a couple, then stop and shift production to Perth – what could possibly go wrong? You have just doubled the tooling and recruitment costs.
Defense has to be forced to regularly (six month) report progress against time and cost targets like other departments. Otherwise we never identify when a project is failing till its too late to fix it. Adopting IA guidleines, or asking them to review Defebse progress, might help.
The AUKUS task force is a case in point. Their “progress” reports are meaningless. We also have to stop the constant chopping and changing, which creates a lot of churn.
Have a good day all.
Good morning Soc,
Yes, I commented yesterday that the Opposition’s tactics seem skewed to the elder cohort (except us ‘woke’ elders 😉 ), such as Angus Taylor’s Abbottesque bicycle caravanserai to meet with voters and listen to them. I bet he won’t find many young ones to meet with, unless he goes inside a cinema where the latest Marvel Cinematic Universe film is playing or to an E Sports comp. He’ll probably find a few at the local Evangelical Church, but then they’re not the young votes the Liberals need.
Slept like a log last night.
LOL Taylormade
Dont know whiy the liberals would be appeeling to older voters as thats who usualy vote liberal based on coments after they lost the liberals seem to asume how bad they are does not matter because there the natural party off government any way and labor does not win often only way if liberals can come backis if theyy wellcome back the so called modderit liberals back such as willson howeever even there not modderit desbite what 2gb says
I had a nightmare last night. I ‘dreamt’ (nightmared?) that I was staying with friends, generic, and I was just about to go out with one of them when I looked in the mirror as I brushed my hair and noticed a worm in it. So I went to my friend to see if she could take a look for any more and she freaked out! I had a hole in my skull that went all the way down to my brain dura mater which was filled with maggots and worms! Then I remember chasing them around begging for them to clean it out for me so we could go out but they wouldn’t because they were so horrified. And that’s when I woke up, chasing them around the house. 🙂
My brain is a wonderful thing. 😀
Other than that I had a good sleep. 😆
The stage 3 tax cut propaganda which is happening with the corrupt lib/nats and their propaganda media units
It is looking like the 2022 federal election day 1 gaffe repeat from the corrupt lib/nats and their propaganda media units , when they went early on a got you and thought Albanese and Labor lost the election
Convinced now there is no political intelligence awareness in the corrupt Lib/nats or their propaganda media units , they repeat the same mistakes over and over
The proposed tax cuts effectively gives those on higher incomes the equivalent of the aged pension.
Reason why this tactic has back fired on the corrupt lib/nats and their propaganda media units is , If the present situation stays the same or worsens in 2023 will the corrupt lib/nats and their propaganda media units still be calling for the stage 3 tax cut for those who are on $200,000 and over not to be repealed.
It gives Labor the political advantage
C@T
“ Angus Taylor’s Abbottesque bicycle caravanserai to meet with voters and listen to them. I bet he won’t find many young ones to meet with,”
From my observations, many or most cycling groups are compromised of financially comfortable MAMILs (middle aged men in Lycra) who after their exercise coalesce around coffee shops mid-late morning often comprised of folk aged over 50. If Taylor is seeking a diversity of views from a majority of the population then he may be disappointed having chosen a narrow self-fulfilling methodology. I wonder if he’ll spend much time cycling around Western Sydney or South Western Brisbane (Logan and Ipswich) or even the tree-lined inner city suburbs for example that recently voted Green or Teal or instead stick to those demographics and socio-economic areas he’s most comfortable with?
I’m recovering from jet lag having just returned home so looking forward to getting back into bludging with a couple of more anecdotes from our recent sojourn.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
A very interesting contribution here from George Brandis who says Stephen Smith would make a good ambassador to the UK and that Kevin Rudd would be admirably suited to the role in the US.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/mr-smith-s-not-going-to-washington-but-this-labor-leader-should-be-20221007-p5bnyx.html
The Albanese government will seek to rein in endemic cost blowouts and delays in the defence portfolio by establishing a new “early warning” system for key military projects that are running late and over budget. Matthew Knott writes that, with its first federal budget to be unveiled in a fortnight, the government has singled out defence as a major fiscal burden, but one that cannot be avoided given the increased volatility in the region.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/can-t-wave-budget-papers-on-the-battlefield-defence-blowouts-under-fire-20221009-p5boel.html
Defence projects have blown out by at least $6.5bn placing even greater pressure on the federal budget, the government will reveal today. Daniel Hurt writes that the new figure – which comes before the promised nuclear-powered submarines have even been factored into the budget – has led the government to commit to “prudent” future management of defence projects.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/oct/10/defence-projects-suffer-65bn-cost-blowout-as-marles-promises-more-scrutiny-in-future
There is a simple way for a prime minister to break an election promise: ask for permission, says David Crowe.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/there-s-one-way-for-albanese-to-safely-break-his-tax-cut-promise-20221009-p5bodv.html
On the subject of the stage e tax cuts, Sean Kelly concludes his evaluation with, “A genuine national conversation about it will take years, made up of many long weeks. And this should be the government’s greatest fear: what if, after all that chatting, the answer is still “yes”?”.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/power-politics-and-procrastination-albanese-s-taxing-tease-20221007-p5bo42.html
Changes to the reductions are unlikely in the October budget, giving the government more time to make the case, starting with surging defence spending, writes Andrew Tillett.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/delay-on-labor-s-income-tax-cut-u-turn-20221009-p5bob6
David Crowe reports that federal spending on road and rail projects will be overhauled in new laws to be put to parliament within months to prevent a sudden slump in infrastructure funding from $17.5 billion this year and ensure the mammoth plans can shore up economic growth.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/federal-infrastructure-spending-to-be-overhauled-to-maintain-flow-of-money-20221007-p5bnxc.html
Australia has a problem. In recent years Labor and the Coalition have become more focussed on the politics of economics than on economic ideology. Both are now torn between what wins elections and what they believe in, writes Ross Stitt.
https://johnmenadue.com/political-self-interest-is-killing-economic-ideology/
Rachel Clun says it’s time for Australia to talk about taxation. She says the revenue issue has to be addressed.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-we-need-to-talk-about-tax-20221007-p5bnyp.html
The Liberal Party is in a dire state across Australia right now. That should worry us all, writes Frank Bongiorno in an interesting read.
https://theconversation.com/the-liberal-party-is-in-a-dire-state-across-australia-right-now-that-should-worry-us-all-191851
“The tattered remnants of the “natural party of government” experienced a collective bout of the vapours when their keys to the nation’s treasure were confiscated and the very real prospect arose that some of their most egregious persons of interest would be held accountable for the boondoggles, daily scandal and general douchebaggery. They are now re-grouping under new management to reactivate the fear and loathing that is their brand”, writes the AIMN’s Grumpy Geezer.
https://theaimn.com/newscorp-polishes-the-knob/
Australian FinTech companies collect your bank customer registration number and your password to access your bank accounts; and they keep that access even if you no longer use their services. Cyber security expert Manal al-Sharif explores privacy rorts.
https://michaelwest.com.au/fintech-companies-privacy-rorts/
New South Wales Premier Dominic Perrottet has made a decision which has been on the cards for decades: his government will ‘fast-track’ the raising of Warragamba Dam as a means of mitigating flooding on the Hawkesbury-Nepean river system. And we still keep building on flood plains, writes a concerned Chas Keys.
https://johnmenadue.com/perrottet-bites-the-warragamba-bullet-and-we-should-be-concerned/
Weaponising advertising for political advantage undermines trust in politicians and democracy and creates an uneven playing field. Something has to change, urge the Grattan Institute’s Anika Stobart and Danielle Wood.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/politicised-taxpayer-funded-advertising-is-costing-us-a-fortune-20221005-p5bnep.html
Integrity in politics, the health system, and the environment are the top three issues that will sway readers of The Age when they cast their votes at the November 26 election, with cost of living also a huge concern across both regional and metropolitan Melbourne. (The Age has many articles based on this survey, so if you want more on this you can find it here https://www.theage.com.au/ )
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/what-victorians-want-to-hear-from-politicians-20220926-p5bl00.html
Zoe Samios reports that one of News Corporation’s minority shareholders is requesting the Rupert Murdoch-controlled media company disclose more information on government lobbying efforts in the US and other key markets, claiming it is critical to the long-term value of the business.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/news-corp-shareholder-pushes-for-transparency-on-lobbying-efforts-20221007-p5bo0g.html
Due to CEO Andrew Thorburn’s resignation after one day, the turmoil at Essendon Football Club may turn out to be a game-saver, writes Alan Austin.
https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/dropkick-me-jesus-through-the-goalposts-of-life,16843
Greg Barns SC says Australia should follow Biden’s lead on cannabis.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-should-follow-biden-s-lead-on-cannabis-20221007-p5bo0h.html
Wall Street’s biggest bear says the latest US jobs numbers show the Fed has the same problem as the RBA: unemployment is too low for inflation to fall.
https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/tempted-to-turn-bullish-beware-these-two-factors-20221009-p5bobd
Johnson was slow-poisoning arsenic for the Conservatives. Liz Truss is instant cyanide, says Andrew Rawnsley.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/09/johnson-was-slow-poisoning-arsenic-for-tories-liz-truss-is-instant-cyanide
John Harris explains how Britain is slowly waking up to the truth: Brexit has left it poorer, adrift and alone.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/09/britain-brexit-poorer-boris-johnson
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FemyW8XUUAEdZWB?format=jpg&name=900×900
Jim Pavlidis
Badiucao
Peter Broelman
Spooner
From the US
Reason why the corrupt lib/nats and their propaganda media units have given Labor a free run in the 2025 federal election
If the situation was for the stage 3 tax cut for those who are on $200,000 and over to be cut to save Australia’s economy getting into further trouble
The corrupt lib/nats and their propaganda media units cannot changed their tune of abandoning stage 3 tax cut for those who are on $200,000 and over , if they do then they have broken their election promise of keeping the stage 3 tax cut for those who are on $200,000 and over.
Thanks BK.
The Dawn Patrol really is fantastic and came into its own o/s. Over the decades I’ve travelled considerably and the thing I’ve missed most is recent news from home. Way back when I initially lived in the Middle East in the early 80s an uncle used to cut out bits of the newspaper and post them to me. They’d arrive a fortnight later and were much cherished. Your contribution in the modern era was no less enjoyable allowing me to both enjoy the world but keep in touch and up-to-date with national issues to the moment which is important for we news-hungry Bludgers.
Cronus,
You might be interested in watching this powerful video from the Ukrainian Minister of Defence, a highly qualified individual:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1579151499086761989
“Labor’s leads, the latest result putting at 55-45 after a 54.5-45.5 result the previous week.”…
That’s the stern reply of the People to the Greens, Teals and The Guardian brouhaha about stage-3 tax cuts….
My pleasure, Cronus.
Socrates: Sturt & Morgan Poll Figures.
It is a difficult and in-exact science to transfer polling data to specific seats.
My rough analysis suggests that the Morgan 2PP figures, if applied to Sturt would see the seat join the Government ranks with a margin of 2.4%.
However, don’t depend on us elder folk dying off to realise this result.
My wife and I have been waiting over 20 years to see a similar result in our local state seat of Terrigal, in NSW.
We’re still waiting but have now advanced into that senior demographic.
I hope that your wishes are fulfilled in 2025 in Sturt.
James Carville Wails on CNN’s GOP Pundit and Republicans Who Worship Putin
https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/8/2127800/-James-Carville-Wails-on-CNN-s-GOP-Pundit-and-Republicans-Who-Worship-Putin
Thank you, BK
5
high thin cloud
still
ground sodden underfoot
ordinary
the new normal
Grumpy Geezer deals high grade snark – like a slightly less profane John Birmingham. Has anyone ever seen them together at one time?
We are now at a lower level of reported respiratory illness than before the pandemic!
Does anyone know what’s happening with the Roberts-Smith trial?
No mention of a third booster shot; I guess we’ll have to wait until the next wave.
A new Covid booster rolls out in Australia on Monday. This is who should get it
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/moderna-spikevax-bivalent-vaccine-explained/puz90l4oj
Macca RB says:
Monday, October 10, 2022 at 7:59 am
Socrates: Sturt & Morgan Poll Figures.
It is a difficult and in-exact science to transfer polling data to specific seats.
My rough analysis suggests that the Morgan 2PP figures, if applied to Sturt would see the seat join the Government ranks with a margin of 2.4%.
However, don’t depend on us elder folk dying off to realise this result.
My wife and I have been waiting over 20 years to see a similar result in our local state seat of Terrigal, in NSW.
We’re still waiting but have now advanced into that senior demographic.
I hope that your wishes are fulfilled in 2025 in Sturt.
———————————————————————————————-
Medical science coming to the Coalition’s rescue (chuckles)?
Thanks C@T
I’ll check that out a bit later today. Lots of errands to catch up on.
Dutton is falling over himself to be on the ABC.
Couldn’t be anywhere near it while in office.
‘Socrates says:
Monday, October 10, 2022 at 6:27 am
Apologies for my banging on about defence spending….’
—————————–
No need for the apology. Most informative. Pls keep them coming.
C@tmomma says:
Monday, October 10, 2022 at 7:01 am
I had a nightmare last night. …….
**************
An allegory for Poll Bludger comments?
”
New South Wales Premier Dominic Perrottet has made a decision which has been on the cards for decades: his government will ‘fast-track’ the raising of Warragamba Dam as a means of mitigating flooding on the Hawkesbury-Nepean river system. And we still keep building on flood plains, writes a concerned Chas Keys.
https://johnmenadue.com/perrottet-bites-the-warragamba-bullet-and-we-should-be-concerned/
”
IMO, Dams are constructed mainly to store water and irrigate farm fields adjacent to the river system and beyond. Otherwise the water go waste without proper storage to irrigate. Also, some of its other purposes could include flood mitigation and Hydro-Power generation.
The main purpose of dam should not be flood mitigation. If development of land downstream and adjacent to river system is allowed and if that land floods regularly then proper planning is not done of damming wrt downstream of river system.
The cheaper and profitable way to mitigate flooding in that instance is to build another dam upstream, which can store water and irrigate parts of farm lands in that region than the water buybacks scam we are witnessing under Nationals party.
Cronus @ 8.32am
Thanks.
As a teenage Rasputin, taking sips from a gin, I was so proud of being able to vote in 1974 and help to re-elect the Whitlam Govt.
I even believed that my fellow voting age High School friends would have done the same.
Alas, living in Lane Cove, we still ended up with The Rodent.
1975 came and my youthful illusions were shattered – and we still had the Lying Rodent with an increased margin.
So, it was with great pleasure to see the Lying rodent deposed in 2007.
Alas, some things take time.
”
Johnson was slow-poisoning arsenic for the Conservatives. Liz Truss is instant cyanide, says Andrew Rawnsley.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/09/johnson-was-slow-poisoning-arsenic-for-tories-liz-truss-is-instant-cyanide
”
So prescient. 🙂
”
somethinglikethatsays:
Monday, October 10, 2022 at 8:35 am
Dutton is falling over himself to be on the ABC.
Couldn’t be anywhere near it while in office.
”
When he was in power ABC was dead to him.
“The main purpose of dam should not be flood mitigation. If development of land downstream and adjacent to river system is allowed and if that land floods regularly then proper planning is not done of damming wrt downstream of river system.”
Brisbane says hi!
C@tmommasays:
Monday, October 10, 2022 at 7:01 am
I had a nightmare last night. I ‘dreamt’ (nightmared?) that I was staying with friends, generic, and I was just about to go out with one of them when I looked in the mirror as I brushed my hair and noticed a worm in it. So I went to my friend to see if she could take a look for any more and she freaked out! I had a hole in my skull that went all the way down to my brain dura mater which was filled with maggots and worms! Then I remember chasing them around begging for them to clean it out for me so we could go out but they wouldn’t because they were so horrified. And that’s when I woke up, chasing them around the house.
My brain is a wonderful thing.
Other than that I had a good sleep.
____________________________________________
Today’s recommended listening:
I often wonder if there’s another parallel universe where Australia has a Trillion dollars in credit and the Liberal Government is refusing to cut income tax because they said they would match Labor’s promise to hold the levels the same to keep money for nation building infrastructure and to hold money in savings and grow the amount held in the bank for a rainy day…
”
Dandy Murray-Honeydewsays:
Monday, October 10, 2022 at 9:07 am
“The main purpose of dam should not be flood mitigation. If development of land downstream and adjacent to river system is allowed and if that land floods regularly then proper planning is not done of damming wrt downstream of river system.”
Brisbane says hi!
”
Dandy
Brisbane River system did not start just a few miles upstream of Brisbane. It must have started hundreds/ thousands of Kms upstream of Brisbane. Are there any other dams on that river system other than just before Brisbane. Even after the construction of that dam, isn’t Brisbane getting flooded frequently in the last 15 years downstream of dam?
Ven,
It’s a tad more complicated than that.
Ven
Dandy
Brisbane River system did not start just a few miles upstream of Brisbane. It must have started hundreds/ thousands of Kms upstream of Brisbane. Are there any other dams on that river system other than just before Brisbane. Even after the construction of that dam, isn’t Brisbane getting flooded frequently in the last 15 years downstream of dam?
————-
Actually, the Brisbane River catchment is quite small.
This week in my part of the woods, visitors to aged care facilities will no longer be required to be vaxxed for covid.
Merely have a negative test result.
Alpha Zero
Might just do that. I have a ye olde vinyl copy of that album 🙂
Ven
I would agree with Rakali. The Brisbane River catchment is not that huge and the two best dam sites – Somerset and Wivenhoe – are already dammed. It would make more sense to look at damming the major tributaries – Lockyer Creek and the Bremer River. However that isn’t easy. The logical place to dam the Bremer River would inundate half of suburban Ipswich, which was built right across the flood plain and is in some areas more flood prone than Brisbane. Likewise daming Lockyer Creek is also difficult, none of the land has been acquired, and a lot of it is prime farmland, which grows most of Brisbane’s fruit and vegetables.
The other big rivers in SEQ are either already dammed (Hinze Dam on Nerang River, Wyarallong Dam on Logan River), or planned dams were defeated by inappropriate subdivision back in the Joh era (Wolfdene Dam on Albert River). On the Sunshine Coast the Maroochy River has a huge potential to inundate Maroochydore, much of which is actually lower than the coastal dunes at the river mouth. There is no easy way to dam it either, thanks to lots of rural-residential subdivision in Maroochy Shire and Nambour.
Early voting in US Mid-term election with nice graphs
https://rpubs.com/ElectProject/early_vote_2022
Reporting states with party registration data: FL, IA, MD, ME, NC, NJ, PA, SD
Party Count Percent
Democrat 146,370 51.8
Republican 90,689 32.1
None/Minor 45,336 16.1
TOTAL 282,395 100.0
#weatheronPB
Sullen clouds, unsettled air, tense.
Trees try to shake it off. Fail.
It must be Monday.
Ven
Im sticking to my prediction that the dems will hold the senate and the house.
Matthew/Matt Guy
Still living in 2019
“If I believed polls you would have just been interviewing Bill Shorten as prime minister or Michael Daley as NSW premier,” Guy told Seven’s breakfast show Sunrise.
————————–
State and Federal elections opinion polling after 2019 have been more accurate , which means it doesnt look good for the victorian lib/nats
Victoria @ #45 Monday, October 10th, 2022 – 8:54 am
I hope they make Sinema and Manchin irrelevant and hold the house. And don’t forget the governorships, 36 I think will be decided. Dems wining either or both of Florida and Texas would be something.
Alpha Zero,
Thanks for that. I’ll look it up on You Tube. 🙂
Fun Fact: I’ve seen George Clinton and Parliament/Funkadelic live at The Enmore Theatre. One of the best concerts of my life! And I’ve seen a few. 🙂
Late Riser,
I’ve got a smokey for the US Senate. Val Demings to beat Marco Rubio in Florida. She’s running a very smart race. She even reached out to me for a donation for her campaign after I liked a Tweet of hers. 😀
Ven,
base64 links for images never work.