We’re now five weeks without a Newspoll, which is unfortunate from my perspective as it’s time for a new post and I’ve been too busy working on my Victorian election guide (which should be up later this week) to have put much thought into how one might look. There’s always the regular Roy Morgan two-party figures from its weekly update video, which have lately found it moving to the rest of the pack by recording growth in Labor’s leads, the latest result putting it at 55-45 after a 54.5-45.5 result the previous week.
Elsewhere:
• Shaun Ratcliff at YouGov offers findings from its Australian Cooperative Election Survey, conducted during the May election campaign, that appear to suggest the age effect for the Coalition primary vote doesn’t amount to much up to the age of about 40, but accelerates dramatically thereafter. The implication that support for the Coalition is heavily concentrated among the very oldest voters would not appear to bode well for them in the short to medium term.
• Antony Green and Adrian Beaumont at The Conversation both sound off against Victoria’s retention of group voting tickets for the Legislative Council, making the state the last bastion of preference harvesting following recent reforms in Western Australia.
• The turnout for the recent state by-election for North West Central in Western Australia, which has the state’s second highest indigenous population share, came in at just 47.7%, or 5335 out of an enrolment of 11,189. The Nationals have blamed the Western Australian Electoral Commission for insufficient advertising. Merome Beard of the Nationals won the seat with 3071 votes after preferences (60.5%) to 2008 for Liberal candidate Kim Baston (39.5%).
• Rod Culleton, who ran at the May election as the lead Senate candidate of the Great Australian Party in Western Australia, has been charged with providing false information on his nomination form. This included a declaration that he was not an undischarged bankrupt when the National Personal Insolvency Index identified him as such, although Culleton insists this was not the case. Culleton was elected as a One Nation Senator in Western Australia in 2016 but subsequently disqualified after being declared bankrupt by the Federal Court.
Ven
Im more confident that the senate will pick up seats, but the house will just hang on.
C@t
I see Val Demmings winning too.
Quite simple really
——
David Frum
The sure way to avoid nuclear war is for Russia not to start one. If they don’t do it, nobody else will.
Likewise, the sure way to end the invasion of Ukraine is for Russia to withdraw from Ukraine. The war is all of Russia’s making. The war stops when Russia stops it.
”
“The tattered remnants of the “natural party of government” experienced a collective bout of the vapours when their keys to the nation’s treasure were confiscated and the very real prospect arose that some of their most egregious persons of interest would be held accountable for the boondoggles, daily scandal and general douchebaggery. They are now re-grouping under new management to reactivate the fear and loathing that is their brand”, writes the AIMN’s Grumpy Geezer.
https://theaimn.com/newscorp-polishes-the-knob/
”
Grumpy Geezer forgot the word “debauchery ” when he mentioned “boondoggles, daily scandal and general douchebaggery.”
Arslon Xudosi @Arslon_Xudosi
Two Bushmaster MRAPs donated by Australia defended the lives of Ukrainian soldiers and became honourable martyrs.
https://twitter.com/Arslon_Xudosi/status/1579170642040999936?s=20&t=G0HLWaCJPoMPtvN53xVAWg
The Age 10/10
For this election, The Age is shifting our approach to focus on what Victorians want to discuss – what matters most to you – rather than what the political parties and candidates want the election to be about.
_____________________
Corruption.
Secret backroom deals with the cross bench.
Our 3rd rate Health System
Condition of country roads
Victoria @ #NaN Monday, October 10th, 2022 – 10:06 am
Could go either way in the House but as one commentator noted, a small win in the House for the Republicans and no Senate majority could be the worst possible outcome because Kevin McCarthy would need just about all of the radical loudmouth’s votes and so he would be forced into agreeing to some very unpopular policies. Which would do the Repugs no favours in 2024. 😀
Taylormade @ #NaN Monday, October 10th, 2022 – 10:12 am
Jeez, you really must have been mightily pissed off at the Morrison government then!
”
C@tmommasays:
Monday, October 10, 2022 at 10:05 am
Ven,
base64 links for images never work.
”
C@tmomma
Yeah I realised that and deleted it. 🙂
UK Cartoons:
Ben Jennings on Liz Truss’s first month as prime minister #LizTruss #Blackouts #Powercuts #EnergyCrisis #CostOfLivingCrisis #ToryChaos #UnfitToGovern
Patrick Blower on #LizTruss #ToryBritain #Blundertruss #torychaos
Mac on #PutinWarCriminal #CrimeanBridge #Putin
Morten Morland on #LizTruss #ToryBritain #Blundertruss #CostOfLivingCrisis
Matt on #EnergyCrisis #trainstrike
”
C@tmommasays:
Monday, October 10, 2022 at 10:17 am
Victoria @ #NaN Monday, October 10th, 2022 – 10:06 am
Ven
Im more confident that the senate will pick up seats, but the house will just hang on.
Could go either way in the House but as one commentator noted, a small win in the House for the Republicans and no Senate majority could be the worst possible outcome because Kevin McCarthy would need just about all of the radical loudmouth’s votes and so he would be forced into agreeing to some very unpopular policies. Which would do the Repugs no favours in 2024.
”
In the scenario you mentioned, McCarthy to get his way will agree to repeatedly impeach Biden. That will no further than House vote if Dems get Senate majority.
Otherwise Biden will be the first US President to be impeached in House and successfully prosecuted in Senate.
So to avoid all the above Dems have to win both Chambers, which according to 538 is not looking likely.
Bill Schammert
@BillSchammert
BREAKING:
@GovRicketts
says he first learned of potential Sen. Sasse (R-NE) departure yesterday.
“If I choose to pursue the appointment, I will leave the appointment decision to the next governor and will follow the process established for all interested candidates. ”
https://twitter.com/BillSchammert/status/1578484099706413056?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1578488032885608449%7Ctwgr%5E40bcb4dc9d02fb07d9fcbd531e687bc172455c20%7Ctwcon%5Es2_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2022%2F10%2F7%2F2123360%2F-Daily-Kos-Elections-weekly-open-thread
Taylormade says:
Monday, October 10, 2022 at 10:12 am
The Age 10/10
For this election, The Age is shifting our approach to focus on what Victorians want to discuss – what matters most to you – rather than what the political parties and candidates want the election to be about.
_____________________
Corruption.
Secret backroom deals with the cross bench.
Our 3rd rate Health System
Condition of country roads
————————-
Lol Taylormade
Ven @ 10.28
There needs to be a two-thirds majority (67 Senators) to convict in the Senate.
From the Guardian blog today:
“Greens leader Adam Bandt said the “craven” decision to back the cuts in their first budget would increase cost of living pressures and erode social democracy, warning the party would not back austerity measures to help the federal government fund stage-three cuts for high income earners.
“Labor’s flat tax nightmare is tearing down social democracy, ripping money from public services to pay for $9,000 tax cuts for politicians and billionaires. With the public, unions and welfare groups all opposed to these tax cuts for the wealthy, the Greens will fight to make sure Labor’s craven capitulation is short-lived.”
___________________________________
Well, lookie here. The useless leader of the useless Greens is grateful to Scummo and the potato for his wedge. Now he can ponce around claiming credit when Labor revises them in due course. Meanwhile he implicitly perpetrates the dishonest lie that the tax cuts have an impact before 2024. The Greens are worse than the Liberals. At least the Liberals don’t pretend to be anything other than a power hungry political party.
😆 😆 😆 EXACTLY the same was said about the Libs in the late 1990s. Now how did that work out for everyone ?
According to 538.
https://youtu.be/flBAmw-FrYc?t=59
* 10 days ago.
* Tipping point states: Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
* Of the four, the party that wins Georgia gains an overall 80% chance of winning the senate.
See new Tweets
Conversation
Blake Allen
@Blake_Allen13
OK Statewide Poll by
@SoonerPoll
OK Gov:
Hofmeister (D) – 46.8%
Stitt (R-Inc) – 43.0%
Bruno (L) – 2.3%
Yen (I). – 1.3%
Undecided. – 6.6%
In Georgia there are Kemp/Warnock voters.
RCP pollster indicates GOP will win PA and AZ Senate races.
This is a very perceptive and rational comment, by the numbers, from the Washington Post article I just read:
First let’s get real about the “turnout gap the Democrats have with the Republicans”. There 49 million registered Democrats in the country. There are 39 million registered Republicans. If 65 % of the Democrats vote and 70 % of the Republicans vote that means nationally there would be 32 million Democratic votes and 27 million Republican votes cast. Now there are Independents, NOPs, Conservatives, Green Party, Working Families, etc. so the actual turnout for the two major parties for whom a lot of these other parties vote for makes the actual total vote for either party hard to predict. And then there is the distribution of each kind of voter in each state and so on.
But what is clear is that to match a 65% turnout by Democrats of 32 million voters the Republicans would need to turnout 82% of their registered voters to match the Democratic number of voters.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/09/abortion-herschel-walker-midterms/
NV-Gov/Sen/Secretary of State: GOP leads all three
http://www.kolotv.com/…
This is one state in which I hope the typical polling error occurs. But if this poll is true, I hope people there enjoy running out of water!
Ven @ #NaN Monday, October 10th, 2022 – 10:54 am
I’ll just file that prediction away for the future, Ven. 🙂
Ven,
There’s also some very smart former Republican operatives helping to run the Democrat’s campaign. They’re more interested in bringing it home in the final straight.
Closer to home:
I had my 4th shot (2nd booster) on July 5. Is it time for another? Hmm.
😆 A not so smart smart phone.
.
‘The Owner of This iPhone Was in a Severe Car Crash’—or Just on a Roller Coaster
……..During the ride, Apple’s new car-crash detection triggered and automatically dialed 911. The call to the Warren County Communications Center, which you can listen to here, featured an automated voice message from Ms. White’s iPhone:
“The owner of this iPhone was in a severe car crash and is not responding to their phone.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-owner-of-this-iphone-was-in-a-severe-car-crashor-just-on-a-roller-coaster-11665314944
@ Poroti 1051
Point taken, Poroti, but while conservative voting has always been stronger in the older cohort, in the 1990s , that support was obviously stronger across other age cohorts as well.
Thirty years later, that support is now well and truly concentrated in the older cohorts. Across the others, one would think that societal change, social media and the national concerns about environment, political integrity ( yes, I know, that’s an oxymoron), work equality, domination of power and influence in the quaintly- named middle aged white male cohort, the rise of the Teals, the impact of and implications for the post-pandemic world is far more important in consideration amongst those other age cohorts. Yes, C@tmomma, many of us older cohort members have the same concerns, particularly as they affect our children and grandchildren.
So, yes, I believe there is a strong case for the idea that conservative parties, particularly the Liberals, will struggle for votes across the age spectrum.
Sure, the maxim that one becomes more conservative in their elder years is still relevant, and will have an impact ,voting wise.
But social and technological change will continue to impact our attitudes, beliefs and voting trends. One would have to consider that for conservative parties to recoup support across the demographics, there would have to be significant changes to their ideologies. With people like Teena McQueen inside, fighting against ” lefties and wokeism”, I can’t see significant change occuring there for at least another two parliamentary terms.
Thanks, BK and Alpha Zero.
Problem with that kind of thinking is that the dose doesn’t take effect immediately. Immunity doesn’t peak until several weeks after administration. Wait until a “really big wave” is detected and reported upon and by then it’ll be too late for many, even if they run out and immediately get another booster (and even if there are adequate supplies to cover that sort of surge in uptake).
Planning to get an annual booster anytime from late summer to mid-autumn is probably a better general strategy, given that covid waves tend to be seasonal. Or add a springtime one for a ~6 monthly interval that would also protect against imported covid from Norhern hemisphere countries over the December holidays.
And thanks,Socrates , A-E et al for your considered discussion on defence procurements .
While my eyes might glaze over when things get too technical, I appreciate the research and overview .
”
Victoriasays:
Monday, October 10, 2022 at 10:06 am
C@t
I see Val Demmings winning too.
”
Florida voters are like Queensland voters. They flatter only to deceive.
Gettysburg1863 at 11:25 am
Don’t forget dear old Gerard, decades at the coal face battling lefty bias and ‘political correctness’ at the ABC 🙂
”
Gettysburg1863says:
Monday, October 10, 2022 at 11:25 am
@ Poroti 1051
Point taken, Poroti, but while conservative voting has always been stronger in the older cohort, in the 1990s , that support was obviously stronger across other age cohorts as well.
Thirty years later, that support is now well and truly concentrated in the older cohorts. Across the others, one would think that societal change, social media and the national concerns about environment, political integrity ( yes, I know, that’s an oxymoron), work equality, domination of power and influence in the quaintly- named middle aged white male cohort, the rise of the Teals, the impact of and implications for the post-pandemic world is far more important in consideration amongst those other age cohorts. Yes, C@tmomma, many of us older cohort members have the same concerns, particularly as they affect our children and grandchildren.
So, yes, I believe there is a strong case for the idea that conservative parties, particularly the Liberals, will struggle for votes across the age spectrum.
Sure, the maxim that one becomes more conservative in their elder years is still relevant, and will have an impact ,voting wise.
But social and technological change will continue to impact our attitudes, beliefs and voting trends. One would have to consider that for conservative parties to recoup support across the demographics, there would have to be significant changes to their ideologies. With people like Teena McQueen inside, fighting against ” lefties and wokeism”, I can’t see significant change occuring there for at least another two parliamentary terms.
”
Gettysburg1863
Let me try to put it in simple terms:
America is supposed to be the richest country, the most advanced country, the technological savvy country, the most enlightened country.
But what did the country do recently?
74 million voters voted for a depraved and corrupt person like Trump in 2020. He got most votes a Republican presidential candidate got ever. Surely all those people cannot be people over 60 years. There are many voters who are below 40 years of age. Australia usually follows what Americans do. After all the depravity of LNP, They got 3 % more PV in May election. ALP barely won the election by about 1000 votes on 2PP.
And that after promising things like to retain Stage3 tax cuts.
Macca RB says:
Monday, October 10, 2022 at 8:50 am
Cronus @ 8.32am
Thanks.
As a teenage Rasputin, taking sips from a gin, I was so proud of being able to vote in 1974 and help to re-elect the Whitlam Govt.
I even believed that my fellow voting age High School friends would have done the same.
Alas, living in Lane Cove, we still ended up with The Rodent.
1975 came and my youthful illusions were shattered – and we still had the Lying Rodent with an increased margin.
So, it was with great pleasure to see the Lying rodent deposed in 2007.
Alas, some things take time.
———————————————————————————————
I understand completely. Being in Dutton’s electorate of Dickson that he has held since 2001, I find myself ashamed at my fellow constituents that they would continue to elect this …………. individual. It offends me. I look forward to the day I can celebrate his political demise, my only hope is that I get to see him lose rather than resign. After 21 years, I think it’s time.
Macca RB says:
Monday, October 10, 2022 at 7:59 am
Socrates: Sturt & Morgan Poll Figures.
It is a difficult and in-exact science to transfer polling data to specific seats.
My rough analysis suggests that the Morgan 2PP figures, if applied to Sturt would see the seat join the Government ranks with a margin of 2.4%.
However, don’t depend on us elder folk dying off to realise this result.
My wife and I have been waiting over 20 years to see a similar result in our local state seat of Terrigal, in NSW.
We’re still waiting but have now advanced into that senior demographic.
I hope that your wishes are fulfilled in 2025 in Sturt.
____________
+1
Unless and until our national ‘aging population’ trend changes, the ‘older’ demographic will continue to supply a large bloc of Coalition voters – including people who, decades earlier, voted Labor or even Green but, for whatever reasons, shifted to the Right as they aged.
My late father was rusted-on Labor – until Hanson. Her lies about white people being somehow ‘swamped’ spoke to him – I know not how. I’m confident he voted 1 PHON later in his life. Whether he ever preferenced Coalition above Labor, I never knew and wasn’t game to ask!
Cronus at 11:55 am
Walking around the local neighborhood it would be depressing to know so many of the people you walk past are the sort of people who would vote for a Dutton.
Victoria says:
Monday, October 10, 2022 at 9:32 am
This week in my part of the woods, visitors to aged care facilities will no longer be required to be vaxxed for covid.
Merely have a negative test result.
———————————————————————————————-
Not only do we have to be vaccinated but we still have to have RATs prior to entry and of course then masking as well. Further to that though, the facility has added a new regulation meaning the we’re unable to take our loved one out for lunch. Apparently each facility has the ability to establish its own regulations and we were surprised to return to find that the regulations had actually increased rather than decreased as we’d expected. There has been no covid break out either to justify the change so we’re unsure of the reasoning.
The at-times aggressive ageism of some members of some of the Xbench are counterproductive when it comes to older voters.
I see Dai Le has come out against S3 today. Bravo ..!
Ven says:
Monday, October 10, 2022 at 10:28 am
”
C@tmommasays:
Monday, October 10, 2022 at 10:17 am
Victoria @ #NaN Monday, October 10th, 2022 – 10:06 am
Ven
Im more confident that the senate will pick up seats, but the house will just hang on.
Could go either way in the House but as one commentator noted, a small win in the House for the Republicans and no Senate majority could be the worst possible outcome because Kevin McCarthy would need just about all of the radical loudmouth’s votes and so he would be forced into agreeing to some very unpopular policies. Which would do the Repugs no favours in 2024.
”
In the scenario you mentioned, McCarthy to get his way will agree to repeatedly impeach Biden. That will no further than House vote if Dems get Senate majority.
Otherwise Biden will be the first US President to be impeached in House and successfully prosecuted in Senate.
So to avoid all the above Dems have to win both Chambers, which according to 538 is not looking likely.
____________
IIRC, to convict a President requires 2/3 majority in the Senate? Not going to happen to Biden without some extraordinary, surprising ‘smoking gun.’ The Repugs’ impeachment bleating is without substance.
Marles declaring war on Defence.
Good luck with that.
The running score for Defence v defence ministers is Defence 100%; defence ministers 0%.
‘Rex Douglas says:
Monday, October 10, 2022 at 12:08 pm
I see Dai Le has come out against S3 today. Bravo ..!’
—————————–
#ScornforintegrityRex.
I also see Bandt not holding back in criticism re Labor’s S3.
He’s dead right of course – and Labor will have little choice to act next year after the NSW election when the global economy will be in a worsened state, according to economists.
Socrates
“ Defense has to be forced to regularly (six month) report progress against time and cost targets like other departments. Otherwise we never identify when a project is failing till its too late to fix it. Adopting IA guidleines, or asking them to review Defebse progress, might help.”
———————————————————————————————
I’ve been following your posts re Defence spending and management and agree wholeheartedly. This shemozzle needs to end now and Defence needs to be placed under the same (if not more scrutiny) funding/reporting guidelines as all other departments. Major infrastructure/asset purchasing is undertaken all the time and everywhere under both government and civilian auspices and notwithstanding the relative complexities of Defence, this really should not be any more problematic than elsewhere. I don’t understand exactly where Defence went off the rails but I hope the government can re-establish the oversight required for the sake of national interest.
Another downside to the odious Daylight Saving. Taylormade waking and hour earlier and Scott beating me to the punch. Well played Scotty, well played. But the match ain’t over yet.
Scott says:
Monday, October 10, 2022 at 10:36 am
Taylormade says:
Monday, October 10, 2022 at 10:12 am
The Age 10/10
For this election, The Age is shifting our approach to focus on what Victorians want to discuss – what matters most to you – rather than what the political parties and candidates want the election to be about.
_____________________
Corruption.
Secret backroom deals with the cross bench.
Our 3rd rate Health System
Condition of country roads
————————-
Lol Taylormade
One source for defence failures goes waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay back, IMO.
Oz military were sent into WW2 with not enough equipment and equipment that was quite often out of date and/or substandard. A lot good people of died as a consequence. This was cheap.
One result is an abiding wish to have the best quality equipment. This is expensive.
It seems to me that there is insufficient risk management between choosing between enough stuff, good enough stuff and best of the best stuff.
Ven @ #84 Monday, October 10th, 2022 – 10:48 am
That’s a silly metric. Population growth being what it is, pretty much every Republican presidential candidate (and the Democrat ones, too) is going to get the “most votes ever”. Right up until the next one shows up and gets more. Doesn’t say any of them are more popular than their predecessors. All it really says is that the pool of registered voters is larger than it’s ever been. Which…yes; time still moves forwards.
A better metric may be percentage share of the vote. By that measure Trump recieved a weaker share of the vote, both times around, than any elected President (from either party) at least back to 1920. There are only two exceptions to this:
1. Nixon won on only 43.4% of the vote in 1968; however this was a three-way contest
2. Clinton won on 43.0% of the vote in 1992; again this was a three-way affair
Trump’s 46.1% “win” over Hillary in 2016 is the worst victory on record in any two-sided Presidential election for at least the past 100 years.
Boerwar says:
Monday, October 10, 2022 at 12:16 pm
One source for defence failures goes waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay back, IMO.
Oz military were sent into WW2 with not enough equipment and equipment that was quite often out of date and/or substandard. A lot good people of died as a consequence. This was cheap.
One result is an abiding wish to have the best quality equipment. This is expensive.
It seems to me that there is insufficient risk management between choosing between enough stuff, good enough stuff and best of the best stuff.
____________
I know we’ve disagreed on defence spending previously – such as my concern that this country spends almost as much as Italy but with significantly less aggregate capability, which you disputed.
I maintain that, whatever the quality of the items we purchase, we pay far too much for them. Some further aggregate examples…UK and France spend ‘only’ about double our level, yet are in the top 5 nuclear weapons powers on the planet. Not only that, the French nuclear programme is substantially home-developed.
Sweden spends less than half our defence budget, yet arguably achieves substantially better value for money.
Comparing our defence expenditures vs capability outcomes with those of other ‘high wage level’ countries (usually European) almost always shows we get relatively poor bang for our buck.
Snappy Tom
I just sent you a reply to your email, thanks.
Cronus, Snappy Tom and Boerwar
Thanks for comments about Defense spending and accountability, which I see was picked up in other articles in BK’s morning roundup.
Boerwar is right that Marles on his own will not easily change Defense. They see ministers come and go. I think Marles is on the right track getting Smith (a former minister and lawyer) to review them.
But systemic change is needed. Some of it may require legislative change. I would advocate “normalising” Defense accountability and reporting rules. That is, make them subject to the same rules as every other department.
National security should NOT be an adequate criteria to avoid reporting your finances. Sure keep the design of the latest sonar secret, but that is a different issue. Secrecy about peacetime spending is for job security of officials, not the nation. Most other allied countries do NOT exempt their defense departments from financial reporting and audits. Think of all those US Congress hearings about the price of parts. Any legislated exemptions for defense financial management need to be removed, or limited to declared wars.
Finally, I saw this latest Perun video today on upgrading the Ukrainian army. It has a lot of insights about what is really important that could be applied to the ADF. Boerwar will be delighted by the tank references, but I think the relevant comparison for us is in ships, missiles and aircraft.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RWq-ngg7JC8
Opinion | Waging Psychological War Against Russia
The U.S. has a real opportunity to erode Putin’s propaganda.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/09/07/waging-psychological-war-against-russia-00054995