We’re now five weeks without a Newspoll, which is unfortunate from my perspective as it’s time for a new post and I’ve been too busy working on my Victorian election guide (which should be up later this week) to have put much thought into how one might look. There’s always the regular Roy Morgan two-party figures from its weekly update video, which have lately found it moving to the rest of the pack by recording growth in Labor’s leads, the latest result putting it at 55-45 after a 54.5-45.5 result the previous week.
Elsewhere:
• Shaun Ratcliff at YouGov offers findings from its Australian Cooperative Election Survey, conducted during the May election campaign, that appear to suggest the age effect for the Coalition primary vote doesn’t amount to much up to the age of about 40, but accelerates dramatically thereafter. The implication that support for the Coalition is heavily concentrated among the very oldest voters would not appear to bode well for them in the short to medium term.
• Antony Green and Adrian Beaumont at The Conversation both sound off against Victoria’s retention of group voting tickets for the Legislative Council, making the state the last bastion of preference harvesting following recent reforms in Western Australia.
• The turnout for the recent state by-election for North West Central in Western Australia, which has the state’s second highest indigenous population share, came in at just 47.7%, or 5335 out of an enrolment of 11,189. The Nationals have blamed the Western Australian Electoral Commission for insufficient advertising. Merome Beard of the Nationals won the seat with 3071 votes after preferences (60.5%) to 2008 for Liberal candidate Kim Baston (39.5%).
• Rod Culleton, who ran at the May election as the lead Senate candidate of the Great Australian Party in Western Australia, has been charged with providing false information on his nomination form. This included a declaration that he was not an undischarged bankrupt when the National Personal Insolvency Index identified him as such, although Culleton insists this was not the case. Culleton was elected as a One Nation Senator in Western Australia in 2016 but subsequently disqualified after being declared bankrupt by the Federal Court.
Thorpe will not be campaigning no.
Uh huh.
Why go after Thorpe, when you’ve got Hollie Hughes, Hanson, Dutton, et al… ?
…oh yeah, I know why…
Integrity Rexy is triggered by Thorpe’s defintiely no, maybe no, not no but not yes…
Rex Douglas @ #468 Tuesday, October 11th, 2022 – 4:19 pm
And going by today’s poll, Labor are very much in touch with them.
And you’re not.
alias says:
Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 5:32 pm
@Upnorth
In your capacity as PB’s Malaysia elections correspondent, I’d be interested to hear your prediction of what role if any Dr Mahathir Mohamad (now aged 97!) will play in the election.
I don’t follow Malaysian politics all that closely but as I recall Dr M became PM as he was chairman of the Bersatu party which formed part of the coalition that stunningly ousted UMNO/Barisan Nasional in 2018 after six decades in power. In 2020, Dr M quit his party and the premiership over squabbles re whether Anwar Ibrahim would take over as PM as previously agreed. Now Dr M has some new party that’s not really aligned with any of the coalitions.
中华人民共和国
Totally correct on all counts. My gut feeling is UMNO will make a small come back and cobble together enough seats to form a coalition Government.
Dr M may well be leader of the opposition.
Malaysia got whacked pretty hard by COVID though so I may be totally wrong and UMNO might find that they can’t simply buy votes anymore.
Here in Thailand the ruling PPP is fracturing ahead of elections. They are well and truly on the nose because of COVID and the impact on the economy. Lots of MPs swapping to other Parties.
I think you would be game to pick an outcome in both Countries due to their “unique” electoral systems.
Malaysian and Thai politics will be interesting over the next 6 months.
Rex Douglas @ #513 Tuesday, October 11th, 2022 – 5:45 pm
Do you still think Lidia Thorpe is a great Indigenous leader? That is, the woman who said she had no respect for an Indigenous Elder and berated her so badly she needed medical attention?
Don’t worry, I know you will not answer the question. Again.
BREAKING: UK unemployment rate falls to 3.5%, the lowest since 1974.
laughtong @ #510 Tuesday, October 11th, 2022 – 5:35 pm
Must’ve been quite a few angry phone calls from very angry Greens’ voters today to Greens HQ. 🙂
The Ukraine/Russia stuff is interesting.
I had a couple of ‘WTF’ moments as I listened but for a really challenging take, head over to the Useful Idiots podcast and find the interview in the last week or so with Col. Doug Macgregor.
Special prize for the inventor of the term “Fart Levy”!
=======================================
Is it not more so a Burp Levy than a Fart Levy?
Charles McPhedran
@charliekreuz
·
18m
Australian deputy prime minister: Aussie soldiers might be sent to Ukraine to train Ukrainian troops.
https://twitter.com/charliekreuz/status/1579722166022852608?s=20&t=uy71o7MZpu17r34Zd79_MA
“BREAKING: UK unemployment rate falls to 3.5%, the lowest since 1974.”
Must be going really well over there.
“Charles McPhedran
@charliekreuz
·
18m
Australian deputy prime minister: Aussie soldiers might be sent to Ukraine to train Ukrainian troops.”
You might think the Ukranians might look at Iraq and Afghanistan and suggest we keep our troops at home, but no.
C@tmomma @ Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 5:29 pm:
“ If you do get an answer at all from poroti it will be filled with moral equivalence outlining all the terrible things America has done in the wider world and Russia is only giving the Western Imperialists some of their own medicine back”
———————————-
What kind of mind sees the people below as a “Western Imperialists” deserving of murder, rape and torture:
https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=i&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.aljazeera.com%2Fnews%2F2022%2F7%2F16%2Fcivilians-killed-as-russia-intensifies-attacks-across-ukraine&psig=AOvVaw1h1zkMdqS8mXQn3XdEG6uo&ust=1665557699722000&source=images&cd=vfe&ved=0CAwQjRxqFwoTCMisz43M1_oCFQAAAAAdAAAAABAD
C@tmomma at 5:29 pm
From that particular phrase I take it must be pro ‘Western Imperialism’ . Good to see the spirit of The White Man’s burden lives on in you. The ‘natives’ will be chuffed. Nice turns of phrase though, Real Sky After Dark Stuff. Bolta would give it two thumbs up.
What’s up with many staunch Greens supporters being completely incapable of accepting any criticism at all of their party’s conduct? Is it that in their heads they are so incredibly virtuous and enlightened that any conduct by the Greens that might upset that virtue simply cannot be processed by the brain and they lash out? What’s the go?
‘poroti says:
Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 5:56 pm
C@tmomma at 5:29 pm
Far Left Anti Western Imperialist
From that particular phrase I take it must be pro ‘Western Imperialism’ . Good to see the spirit of The White Man’s burden lives on in you. The ‘natives’ will be chuffed. Nice turns of phrase though, Real Sky After Dark Stuff. Bolta would give it two thumbs up.’
———————-
Hang in there p. We don’t always agree but you do good, IMO.
poroti @ Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 5:56 pm
—————————-
Straw man argument, too easily called in this instance. You being tagged a “Far Left Anti Western Imperialist” as a BAD THING still leaves lots of room for differentiation from your POV, without having to be boxed in to the mere pedantic opposite of that phrase. Eg: pro-Western liberal Democrat, hence anti-autocratic imperialist.
That said this “Unity Ticket” on the Voice between the Greens and the likes of Malcolm Roberts, Pauline Hanson and Warren Mundine reminds me of how we see many so-called “tankies” on the Anti Western Imperialist Far Left uniting with the Far Right in support of Putin and Russia.
“What kind of mind sees the people below as a “Western Imperialists” deserving of murder, rape and torture:”
I don’t think any kind of mind has seen that or suggested that. The very suggestion doesn’t frankly seem compatible with the suggestion coming for a place of good faith.
The murder, rape and torture of any peoples is disgusting whether the arm is caused directly or indirectly and in what proportions by the American hegemony, or Putin and his failing, but nuclear armed, state.
But your whole ‘you are with them or against them’ subtext is very George W Bush. Which is a May Day parade of red warning flags to any reader vaguely aware of the historical nature and quality of US Nat Sec Propaganda.
Rakali says:
Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 5:54 pm
Charles McPhedran
@charliekreuz
·
18m
Australian deputy prime minister: Aussie soldiers might be sent to Ukraine to train Ukrainian troops.
——————————-
Good.
When I read this it seems very opaque and evasive in the information it provides about which Senate Cross Benchers attended the meeting, how many were there and what was discussed with Mundine? If PHON and the UAP guy were there it was probably the ‘No’ case.
It appears that the things that were discussed, UNDRIP, Bringing Them Home, Aboriginal Deaths in Custody and The Greens’ particular construction of ‘Truth, Treaty and Voice’ (Voice last, Truth and Treaty first).
So, rather than a different and new perspective from The Greens it seems like situation normal from them.
Here he is on Tucker Carlson’s show a few weeks ago saying Ukraine’s Kharkiv offensive had failed and its total defeat was imminent.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/tucker-carlson-ukraine-russia-guest-b2165684.html
WWP @ 6:04pm, I would have hoped my efforts to condemn anyone who exhibits anything but full-throated support for Ukraine’s cause in repelling this depraved invasion was much more blatant than mere subtext. That said, I am “with Ukraine” and therefore “with those who are with Ukraine”. If the US, UK, EU, or Australia started backsliding in their support for Ukraine, or started intimating they will accommodate Putin and his barbaric regime, I would be “against them” as stridently as you can imagine.
“Good.”
Nothing uglier in all of human history than those that cheer on the deaths or potential deaths of their own country man in war. It is not good, it is terrible.
It may or may not be necessary and and if may or may not be right, but it is terrible in any human lens, and how any human could call it good, is beyond me entirely. What about those soldiers who may well be in harms way, is it such you think it is good and that they deserve Putin’s potentioal murder, rape and torture you prattled on about upthread?
How as a Country did we with a national day commemorating how terrible war is, with a minutes silence for those who will not grow old, turn into a rabid mob pathetic war hungry mob desperate to send Australian’s into harms way and death. It is disgusting.
WWP, one further point. To your knowledge, has Poroti ever condemned Russia’s actions in this war against Ukraine? If so, I’ll be delighted to be shown my concerns are misplaced.
WWP, our troops will be there to support a victimised people to repel their tormentors. Are you seriously not proud of that?
“WWP @ 6:04pm, I would have hoped my efforts to condemn anyone who exhibits anything but full-throated support for Ukraine’s cause in repelling this depraved invasion was much more blatant than mere subtext. That said, I am “with Ukraine” and therefore “with those who are with Ukraine”. If the US, UK, EU, or Australia started backsliding in their support for Ukraine, or started intimating they will accommodate Putin and his barbaric regime, I would be “against them” as stridently as you can imagine.”
So I assume that kind of single minded focus and commitment means that you are posting from the battlefield in Ukraine. Nothing else is consistent with your position.
WWP, do you think the people of Ukraine are worth the West’s protection?
Boerwar @ #527 Tuesday, October 11th, 2022 – 6:00 pm
How patronising. I know you didn’t mean it to be but it’s almost as if you need to dole out such supportive encouragement to poroti as a kind of back-handed slap to people like me who have called him, and you, out for your equivocal support for the Ukrainians against the Russian attacks and their aggressive invasion and the war crimes committed by Russia and Russians against innocent Ukrainian civilians.
It horrifies me to think that if Russia, by flattening the country and a great number of the people in it, eventually wins the war against Ukraine, you will pop up and say, I told you they would win, with a self-satisfied smugness. That you can’t seem to see what is wrong with that way of thinking, horrifies me even more.
But it’s a free blog and you’re free to keep supporting those who want to support Putin, as is your right, in a free country. Doesn’t mean that you’re right though.
Boerwar says:
Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 3:35 pm
People of faith have struggled with the transition from absolutist thinking and relativist thinking.
Those who stick with absolutist thinking are accused of being fundies and of never changing their mind. Islamic, Fundamentalist Christian and Jewish Orthodox come to mind.
Those who move to relativist thinking are accused of being weathervanes who are inconsistent because their beliefs keep changing.
____________
Perhaps Yes Prime Minister can help…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2dNCw0hPLs
“WWP, our troops will be there to support a victimised people to repel their tormentors. Are you seriously not proud of that?”
You’ve changed the question. If I thought it was both necessary and right to send troops I would be incredibly proud of them, but there would be nothing at all ‘good’ about the decision or the risk or the likely negative outcomes.
If I was Ukrainian I’d be doing pretty much exactly what they are doing, they are in the corner and have little choice, but my anger as much as it was directed firstly and predominantly to Putin, there would be enough my anger would not spare many countries east or west.
WWP, no, I am not there. But my wife’s grandparents came to Australia from Ukraine via forced labour camps in Germany in the 1940’s, and I can vouch for how devastating and traumatising this conflict has been for them and their offspring to witness, even though they are thousands of kilometres and over sixty years from their homeland. How traumatic is it for those who are there and being directly subjected to this hell of Russia’s making?
WeWantPaul @ #538 Tuesday, October 11th, 2022 – 6:17 pm
You are an A Grade Ninny, WWP. Attempting to browbeat a new poster into humiliating submission is not a very nice way to behave. And I should know because I have been guilty of it myself.
And if this is the best you can do by way of an argument against someone who supports Ukraine and Ukrainians against Putin, Russia and Russians, then it’s no wonder you’re only a tax lawyer.
Bank of England has had to re-enter the Bond (gilt) market again. Second time in two weeks.
When the central bank of a country buys its own bonds it does so by effectively printing money. This is basically inflationary; so in theory the Pound should fall again. But instead it rose.
William Bowe @ #533 Tuesday, October 11th, 2022 – 6:07 pm
Lol William Bowe. 😀
(In a good way)
WWP @ 6:21pm, what exactly do you think is wrong with us sending our troops to a country which both needs and deserves all the help it can get?
Brodie Grundy for pick 27 …???
Daylight robbery from Melbourne.
I must admit I can’t really see the point of sending Australian troops to Ukraine. Our numbers are too small to make a difference. Others are providing troop training outside Ukraine e.g. in UK or Poland. Less risk. Why take the risk?
It only becomes a political football and plays into Putin’s hands (for propaganda) if Australian or any other NATO or allied troops are killed in Ukraine. The US volunteers that have been captured fighting already caused difficulty in bargaining to get them released.
Ukraine probably has more recent experience fighting a real war than any other country in NATO. Send them what they ask for – they know it best. If they ask for Bushmasters and ammunition, send them that. If we don’t make enough of either, start contracting a bigger supply. We might need them here ourselves in future.
I wonder how WWII would have turned out if in the middle of the blitz Churchill asked for destroyers and aircraft and Roosevelt sent training instructors and other stuff instead?
Willliam
Thanks for the useful background on Col McGregor. Saves me time not listening to him. I also see he was knocked back by the US Senate after Trump nominated him to be ambassador to Germany. Impressive.
Evan says:
Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 4:59 pm
Imagine if Dutton didn’t have the entire Murdoch empire and talkback radio propping him up, his current 18% approval rating would be more like 8%.
____________
I’d just love to see the Right wing media switch off one day – and Duuton’s approval rise (just a little!)
Socrates @ 6:30pm, a reasonable point. If it could be shown that our sending troops comes at the expense of us sending Ukraine what they more desperately need, it would indeed be a decisive point. Do you have any information that this is so?
“Here he is on Tucker Carlson’s show a few weeks ago saying Ukraine’s Kharkiv offensive had failed and its total defeat was imminent.”
That is interesting I don’t make a habit of watching Tucker, so I would have missed that, although I think at the end of the podcast they noted that he got a run from some contributors on fox. I’m not sure what the point is. Should the Useful Idiots not have interviewed him? Should I have written everything he has to say off as wrong without consideration?
I didn’t even endorse it as correct, merely as interesting but with ‘wtf’ moments.
Apologies I’ve read back and I understand now he has been cancelled. Apologies all.
Yes, I thought the name was familiar, he’s Anti NATO, like Trump:
https://www.politico.eu/article/trump-taps-renegade-retired-colonel-for-germany-ambassador-post/
Cronus says:
Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 5:05 pm
Snappy Tom
Reminds me of Benny Hill and Martin, Barton and Fargo.
____________
Tragically, there doesn’t appear to be an easily-findable clip of Benny Hill’s sketch, during which I thought he spoke about the “law firm of Martin, Barton, Larton and Faaar..go”!
Putin may not be the only dictator distracting from domestic problems by foreign military adventurism. In Iran oil workers are joining the protests. That could be devastating for the regimes economic stability.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-11/iran-oil-refinery-workers-appear-to-join-protests/101521084
Macarthur
“Socrates @ 6:30pm, a reasonable point. If it could be shown that our sending troops comes at the expense of us sending Ukraine what they more desperately need, it would indeed be a decisive point. Do you have any information that this is so?”
No, and I didn’t say that. But no country has unlimited funds. For the cash it would take to send, base and maintain Aussie troops in Ukraine now, the Ukrainians might just prefer more supplies, and even more money. As I said, we should prioritise what they ask us for.
And this is actually what the Defence Minister said and what the Ukrainian Ambassador has responded:
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/australia-considers-sending-trainers-to-help-ukraine-troops-20221011-p5bos0
The whole article is not behind the paywall.
I doubt we would send the troops into Ukraine. More likely to Poland or the Baltic states or the UK where we could run a few training camps.
Boerwar at 6:00 pm
My main error is occasionally forgetting advice I heard someone give my father years ago, “never argue with a Dutchman” 😆 As it happens an aunt married a post war Dutch immigrant. So I have an Uncle Kees.
“WWP @ 6:21pm, what exactly do you think is wrong with us sending our troops to a country which both needs and deserves all the help it can get?”
I think there is a missing response but it is not big deal.
There are dozens of situations around the globe where the people suffering deserve and need our help.
Do I think we should commit to war in all of them.
No.
Do I think we should commit to war in any of them? I honestly don’t know. There are places I’d be happier to see intervention (assuming the outcome wasn’t going to be Iraq / Afghanistan / Yemen) than others, but that isn’t based on an objective criteria, and I’m not sure I could develop an objective criteria.
But in no case would I consider potential involvement in war good. Just maybe, necessary, easy to conceive, good inconceivable.