Miscellany: Roy Morgan, Coalition age effects, voter turnout and more

With no sign of Newspoll, Roy Morgan finds a widening of its two-party lead after a series of relatively narrow results.

We’re now five weeks without a Newspoll, which is unfortunate from my perspective as it’s time for a new post and I’ve been too busy working on my Victorian election guide (which should be up later this week) to have put much thought into how one might look. There’s always the regular Roy Morgan two-party figures from its weekly update video, which have lately found it moving to the rest of the pack by recording growth in Labor’s leads, the latest result putting it at 55-45 after a 54.5-45.5 result the previous week.

Elsewhere:

• Shaun Ratcliff at YouGov offers findings from its Australian Cooperative Election Survey, conducted during the May election campaign, that appear to suggest the age effect for the Coalition primary vote doesn’t amount to much up to the age of about 40, but accelerates dramatically thereafter. The implication that support for the Coalition is heavily concentrated among the very oldest voters would not appear to bode well for them in the short to medium term.

• Antony Green and Adrian Beaumont at The Conversation both sound off against Victoria’s retention of group voting tickets for the Legislative Council, making the state the last bastion of preference harvesting following recent reforms in Western Australia.

• The turnout for the recent state by-election for North West Central in Western Australia, which has the state’s second highest indigenous population share, came in at just 47.7%, or 5335 out of an enrolment of 11,189. The Nationals have blamed the Western Australian Electoral Commission for insufficient advertising. Merome Beard of the Nationals won the seat with 3071 votes after preferences (60.5%) to 2008 for Liberal candidate Kim Baston (39.5%).

• Rod Culleton, who ran at the May election as the lead Senate candidate of the Great Australian Party in Western Australia, has been charged with providing false information on his nomination form. This included a declaration that he was not an undischarged bankrupt when the National Personal Insolvency Index identified him as such, although Culleton insists this was not the case. Culleton was elected as a One Nation Senator in Western Australia in 2016 but subsequently disqualified after being declared bankrupt by the Federal Court.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

706 comments on “Miscellany: Roy Morgan, Coalition age effects, voter turnout and more”

Comments Page 11 of 15
1 … 10 11 12 … 15

  1. p
    Thanks. We’ve knocked a hole in the bottom of the rowboat. This was used sometime last century to take a family member, then in labour, through the floods to a waiting car which then drove her to hospital.

  2. Poroti, let me add that we’ve noticed how you mocked Ukrainian national identity, thus:

    “… real possibilities rather than a robotic ‘rah rah rah Slava Ukraini Heróyam sláva!’”

    It is revealing that you see this expression of Ukrainian solidarity in the face of foreign invasion as an object of derision.

    This, on the very day after Russia mercilessly pounded Ukrainian cities and their inhabitants with over 80 missiles, out of pure spite.

  3. ”
    Cronussays:
    Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 12:26 pm
    Leroy says:
    Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 12:11 pm
    Main part of Resolve poll is out

    https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/federal/labor-leads-coalition-on-climate-change-economy-new-rpm-data-shows-20221010-p5booh.html

    Labor leads Coalition on climate change, economy, new RPM data shows
    David Crowe
    October 11, 2022 — 9.00am

    Voters have swung toward Labor to back its handling of more than a dozen major policy challenges ahead of the October 25 budget, with 36 per cent naming the party as best to handle the economy compared to 30 per cent who prefer the Coalition.
    ————————————————————————————————
    Thanks Leroy

    Unsurprisingly but happily, another positive poll. Mr 18% seems to be struggling for relevance.
    ”

    Cronus
    What I don’t understand is why are voters in general in QLD and Dickson in particular don’t see what other voters in country see about Dutton?
    Baffling to put it mildly. If not for 38% in QLD, LNP vote will be in early 20s or even less than 20%.

    LNP has 21 seats in parliament from QLD. Liberal leader is from QLD. Nationals leader is from QLD.

  4. “I am a believer in the selfish gene theory. Altruism is interesting. I deal with it as a facet of professionalism. The Good Samaritan study is enlightening ”

    Really interesting study thanks for the link.

    There is part of the intro to a podcast, probably Capitalism isn’t or something like that about greed. Our society seems to have turned greed into a virtue.

    Now there might be a fine line between competition in the market place and greed, but we are certainly on the wrong side of it.

    Interesting that inside corporations you’ll find they like competition but they expend an enormous amount of energy letting people know they need to put the corporation good first, personal ambition second. Because they understand at a point the benefit of having employees compete for promotions / survival etc can be detrimental to the organisation ripping billions of dollars out of the hands of the public and funnelling it back to share markets and predominantly the 1% of wealthiest people.

    We’ve created a society full of reasons (such as time poor in the study) to walk past the man in need, not one that values the person who stops, or the nurse who treats them in hospital.

  5. Mundine has appeared on the ABC’s RN Breakfast where he confirmed the meeting with Thorpe took place (but stressed that he’s also met with members of the Liberal, National and Labor parties).

    Ahh, so Mundine is having cross party consultations re the Voice, but Karvelas decides to throw some red meat at the Labor partisan stooges by singling out Thorpe with some good ol’ speculation.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-news-live-pm-pledges-to-rein-in-defence-cost-blowouts-bruce-lehrmann-trial-set-to-continue-20221010-p5bons.html?post=p547za#p547za

  6. Mundine is an individual. His attempt at becoming a representative of even a single federal electorate failed. Mundine would add to this his status as a person from Indigenous country and also a member of generic First Nations. Like any other Australian Mundine is entitled to represent himself and to make his views known.

    Thorpe’s situation is more complex. Thorpe is a person who comes from Indigenous countries and may self-represent as that. Thorpe, like Mundine, is a member of the generic First Nations. Thorpe has representative standing as a Senator. In that capacity Thorpe is part of a Party that has 12% of the vote nationally. Further, Thorpe’s Party is one of the parties that has a BOP in the Senate, depending on the disposition of the other 75 senators.

    But the main status of Thorpe is that she is the Greens official spokesperson for Aboriginal Affairs and Aboriginal Health. Unless it is made clear that Thorpe is making personal observations, her public utterances must be regarded as the official Greens Party platform. Where there are divergences, it would be up to the Party leader to make clear what is personal and what is policy. Bandt has, to date, not deviated a skerrick from Thorpe’s utterances. The latter are, therefore, not personal. They are party political and they are party policy. Thorpe speaks for all Greens.

  7. It’s a shame that Labor are so half-arsed with their policies, given the L/NP are so out of touch with mainstream Australians.

  8. Vensays:
    Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 3:49 pm

    Are we not seeing Newspoll because of terrible personal approval rating for Dutton?
    Newspoll conducts the poll for Murdoch rags. They get the money to do the survey whether it is published or not. They hand over the results to Murdoch news editor, whoever that person is. The thing is Simon Benson and Sky after dark can polish the turd only to some extent. Everything else is out of their hands.
    They can write ‘Snake Chalmers’ and ‘Dutton is the greatest guy I the world ‘. That doesn’t change the fact that Dutton personal approval ratings are terrible.

    Who says the Australian is not publishing each Newspoll?

    More likely it’s a case of the Australian paying for fewer polls to be conducted.

  9. Who is this Macarthur?
    Is that you Nath being mischievous?
    Doubting Boerwar’s position re Putin – and now trying to strong-arm Poroti, one our amusing and better contributors seems to mean new but you never know.

  10. Rex Douglassays:
    Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 4:19 pm

    It’s a shame that Labor are so half-arsed with their policies, given the L/NP are so out of touch with mainstream Australians.

    Yes, Rex.

    This is definitely the message the polls are telling us¿

  11. Here was the treasurer’s response:

    I think what people will see in the budget in two weeks’ time is some difficult decisions in difficult times, you know, around things like this culture of largesse and waste and rorts which has built up over the best part of a decade.

    We need to start to address that. That’s not easy. It requires a lot of work. And it requires some element of political risk to wind back some of that spending. And people will see that in October. I think that will be a defining feature of our approach to the budget after that as well.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-news-live-pm-pledges-to-rein-in-defence-cost-blowouts-bruce-lehrmann-trial-set-to-continue-20221010-p5bons.html?post=p547za#p547za

    So, Chalmers confirms he will ‘wind back spending’. This better not affect low to middle-income Australians.

  12. Poliphili says:
    Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 4:23 pm

    Who is this Macarthur?
    Is that you Nath being mischievous?
    ___________________
    That’s no way to be a friend to me.

  13. Although two-party-preferred remains the best way to get an overview of which side is ahead in the race for government, not all polls provide an estimate of the two-party preferred, and some may use the less-accurate method of asking voters for minor parties/independents for their preferences.1 The calculator below takes estimates of each party/grouping’s first-preference vote (also known as primary vote) and calculates an expected two-party-preferred using preference flows at the 2022 federal election, with a few options to change preference flows.

    If you want to batch-convert several sets of primary votes to a two-party-preferred figures, I’ve uploaded a spreadsheet here which contains the formulae to do so.

    Enter the first-preference (i.e. primary vote) for each party/grouping below. Primary vote figures will be re-calculated such that they sum to 100%.

    https://armariuminterreta.com/projects/australian-2pp-estimator-2025/

  14. Rex Douglassays:
    Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 4:27 pm
    Here was the treasurer’s response:

    I think what people will see in the budget in two weeks’ time is some difficult decisions in difficult times, you know, around things like this culture of largesse and waste and rorts which has built up over the best part of a decade.

    We need to start to address that. That’s not easy. It requires a lot of work. And it requires some element of political risk to wind back some of that spending. And people will see that in October. I think that will be a defining feature of our approach to the budget after that as well.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-news-live-pm-pledges-to-rein-in-defence-cost-blowouts-bruce-lehrmann-trial-set-to-continue-20221010-p5bons.html?post=p547za#p547za

    So, Chalmers confirms he will ‘wind back spending’. This better not affect low to middle-income Australians.
    ____________________________
    Perhaps he could ask Mark Latham for his list of schools to target 😉

  15. Poliphili – Hi, nice to meet you. I’m not nath. I happen to be quite stirred up whenever I see comments which could indicate reservations about assisting Ukraine’s existential fight against Putin’s Russia. I’m glad to have been corrected about Boerwar, but have yet to have my doubts eliminated about Poroti. And I am not going to let disparagement of Ukrainian national solidarity just pass.

  16. nath says:
    Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 4:31 pm
    Poliphili says:
    Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 4:23 pm

    Who is this Macarthur?
    Is that you Nath being mischievous?
    ___________________
    That’s no way to be a friend to me.
    中华人民共和国
    I stand with Nath – because he wanted me to get high so I could sleep.

    Didn’t work but I appreciated concept.

  17. ‘Macarthur says:
    Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 4:37 pm

    Poliphili – Hi, nice to meet you. I’m not nath. I happen to be quite stirred up whenever I see comments which could indicate reservations about assisting Ukraine’s existential fight against Putin’s Russia. I’m glad to have been corrected about Boerwar, but have yet to have my doubts eliminated about Poroti. And I am not going to let disparagement of Ukrainian national solidarity just pass.’
    ————————————————
    Quite right, IMO. Poroti has a sly way about him when it comes to secretly rooting for wombats and Putin.

  18. ”
    Barney in Vinh Longsays:
    Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 4:21 pm
    Vensays:
    Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 3:49 pm

    Are we not seeing Newspoll because of terrible personal approval rating for Dutton?
    Newspoll conducts the poll for Murdoch rags. They get the money to do the survey whether it is published or not. They hand over the results to Murdoch news editor, whoever that person is. The thing is Simon Benson and Sky after dark can polish the turd only to some extent. Everything else is out of their hands.
    They can write ‘Snake Chalmers’ and ‘Dutton is the greatest guy I the world ‘. That doesn’t change the fact that Dutton personal approval ratings are terrible.

    Who says the Australian is not publishing each Newspoll?

    More likely it’s a case of the Australian paying for fewer polls to be conducted.
    ”

    Nobody said that the Australian is not publishing each Newspoll. It is just my speculation like Murdoch rags and Sky after dark do about others. Thats all.
    Ofcourse they are every right not to publish any Newspoll if they want to because they pay for it.

  19. Although, Boerwar was very upbeat about Russia’s chances initially. All those tanks you see. And he was very bullish about that convoy heading to Kiev, which ultimately turned tail and ran.

  20. @ UpNorth earlier…
    Shame on you as a Qlder! ( Hehe!)
    You forgot the mighty little town of Raglan ( of the glorious Charge of The Light Brigade) and multiple Balaclava namespots. Add Inkerman and Alma to those and one can certainly link their foundation times to a prominent historical time in the British Empire.
    As a sideline, interesting how certain clothing styles originated during the Crimean War- raglan sleeves, cardigans and balaclavas.

  21. Then Boerwar was also bullish about the focus of the conflict going back to the Donbas. Open plains, artillery and tanks of course. If he is pro Russian, it’s got something to do with tanks.

  22. Macarthur at 4:09 pm
    How hard line do you have to be to wonder if boerwar is some sort of Putin sympathiser !? Hard enough to make discussion pointless I’d suggest.

  27. I see speculation Paul Little may soon return as Essendon President.

    He of course did such a wonderful job (not) as President previously trying to deny the drug scandal in 2014 that eventually destroyed the club.

    You would think a completely new and fresh team of club leaders would be preferred by the members, but seeming not.

  28. Gettysburg1863 says:
    Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 4:46 pm
    @ UpNorth earlier…
    Shame on you as a Qlder! ( Hehe!)
    You forgot the mighty little town of Raglan ( of the glorious Charge of The Light Brigade) and multiple Balaclava namespots. Add Inkerman and Alma to those and one can certainly link their foundation times to a prominent historical time in the British Empire.
    As a sideline, interesting how certain clothing styles originated during the Crimean War- raglan sleeves, cardigans and balaclavas.
    中华人民共和国
    Raglan (near Gladstone – yes the PM) of course. Went crabbing there once!

    Upnorth, near Inkerman and Alma, is Sugar Loaf Hill another Crimean reference. The Sugar Mill on that side of the Burdekin is also called Inkerman Mill as was the original Cattle/Sheep station that was carved out area.

  29. Mrs Shellbell and I were in hot pursuit of a wombat on Sunday as we descended from Mt Rufus. Tasmania.

    First its cutie little paw marks in the snow on the path. Next its cuboid poos strategically placed on our passage.

    Finally, we see it and it nicks off into the undergrowth.

  30. Imagine if Dutton didn’t have the entire Murdoch empire and talkback radio propping him up, his current 18% approval rating would be more like 8%.

  32. So now the Greens are having secret* discussions with the Labor Government about supporting the Voice which, according to the Greens, is a complete waste of money, which is embedded in a Statement from the Heart after it was cobbled together by illegitimate groups of Indigenous peoples with majority non-Indigenous representation and by wicked Anangu who invited a future Greens Spokesperson to leave the meeting allegedly for showing a lack of respect to Anangu.

    *This is the same crowd that is demanding day in, day out that policy processes have to be public, that is hiding its disciplinary proceedings with respect to bullying and which is demanding that the hearings of the NACC should all be fully public. Says it all, really.

    For those who are totally unused to the way in which the Greens do *integrity* I now predict that the Greens will fully support the Voice Referendum BUT ONLY AFTER THEY HAVE FORCED LABOR TO RUN A REFERENDUM ON THE VOICE AND ONLY AFTER THE GREENS HAVE RIGHTEOUSLY FORCED LABOR TO LINK MAKARRATA AND THE TREATY TO THE VOICE. Amnesia about everything that went before will be mandatory.

  33. I doubt there is a war that has not had war crimes perpetrated by both sides.

    But generally the invader is the one who commits the vast bulk of war crimes on the civilian populations.

  34. shellbell says:
    Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 4:58 pm

    Mrs Shellbell and I were in hot pursuit of a wombat on Sunday as we descended from Mt Rufus. Tasmania.

    First its cutie little paw marks in the snow on the path. Next its cuboid poos strategically placed on our passage.

    Finally, we see it and it nicks off into the undergrowth.
    —————————————————
    Count yourself lucky. They do snow quite well:

    https://www.google.com/search?source=univ&tbm=isch&q=WILDLIFE+COMPETITION+WOMBAT+IN+SNOW&client=firefox-b-d&fir=nzemtIQDoegdaM%252CcgcSuhGFkaDhmM%252C_%253BbW0o-loLqsq0VM%252CZtRboLYnczP5YM%252C_%253BQm4aexupgBTCqM%252C1nuvLZqVDwDtwM%252C_%253BHinljFVRlk85uM%252Ch-lGKBAx4TExwM%252C_%253BubxRTrzGVegA3M%252Cr2Jk5bGA7UiWTM%252C_%253ByZ9y-C3jjGob7M%252CtG-CWiPyDEIYhM%252C_%253BUGxWxzYVsy6CkM%252CTJGCwW14Ue3zxM%252C_%253BYv_KYSLjAE2LMM%252CvFbzVEo_mJScqM%252C_%253BzL9j_GikBqLARM%252C5Y4s4rGR2d-gIM%252C_%253BKYf834ogI4R9_M%252CgkKVbdxJ-AgybM%252C_&usg=AI4_-kRne-uht4jlMEP8TxefwOdVWCajMQ&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjjnZbJwNf6AhWxxDgGHbQ8Bj8Q7Al6BAgfEEs&biw=1920&bih=899&dpr=1

  35. Partisan Labor bludgers have been left red-faced after swallowing the bullshit that Karvelas and The Australian fed to them. 😆

  38. ‘pukka says:
    Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 4:53 pm

    I doubt there is a war that has not had war crimes perpetrated by both sides.’
    ————————————————
    Indeed.

  39. Partisan Labor bludgers have been left red-faced after swallowing the bullshit that Karvelas and The Australian fed to them.

    Lidia did say the voice referendum was a waste of money, so not that hard to believe that she might want to talk to others who also don’t support it.

  40. The AFL is such a ludicrous organisation..

    This trade period sees the continuing trend of young players fleeing the struggling northern clubs and being replaced by draft picks – wash rinse repeat.

  43. Poliphili @ Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 4:51 pm:

    I’ll say it for you: “Macarthur, we’re talking about you, not to you.”

  44. Rex Douglas says:
    Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 5:11 pm
    The AFL is such a ludicrous organisation..

    This trade period sees the continuing trend of young players fleeing the struggling northern clubs and being replaced by draft picks – wash rinse repeat.
    中华人民共和国
    What do you expect in a sport where you can’t tackle the opponent properly?

  45. Poroti, hello again. If being outraged by Putin’s Russians’ depraved actions in Ukraine makes me hardline, then I plead guilty. May I ask you again:
    1. Do you want all the Russian soldiers expelled from Ukraine’s internationally recognised territory?
    2. Do you want the Putin regime ousted from power ASAP?
    3. Do you want any Russian involved in perpetrating war crimes, crimes against humanity or genocide to be brought to full justice?

  46. Macarthur @ #463 Tuesday, October 11th, 2022 – 4:09 pm

    Poroti, let me add that we’ve noticed how you mocked Ukrainian national identity, thus:

    “… real possibilities rather than a robotic ‘rah rah rah Slava Ukraini Heróyam sláva!’”

    This, on the very day after Russia mercilessly pounded Ukrainian cities and their inhabitants with over 80 missiles, out of pure spite.

    May I advise you not to expect too much contrition from poroti? He comes from the Far Left Anti Western Imperialist end of the spectrum and so can see no wrong with anyone giving it to the Man. If you do get an answer at all from poroti it will be filled with moral equivalence outlining all the terrible things America has done in the wider world and Russia is only giving the Western Imperialists some of their own medicine back.

    We’ve seen this movie before. Too often.

  47. @Upnorth

    In your capacity as PB’s Malaysia elections correspondent, I’d be interested to hear your prediction of what role if any Dr Mahathir Mohamad (now aged 97!) will play in the election.

    I don’t follow Malaysian politics all that closely but as I recall Dr M became PM as he was chairman of the Bersatu party which formed part of the coalition that stunningly ousted UMNO/Barisan Nasional in 2018 after six decades in power. In 2020, Dr M quit his party and the premiership over squabbles re whether Anwar Ibrahim would take over as PM as previously agreed. Now Dr M has some new party that’s not really aligned with any of the coalitions.

  50. Reminder ON LINE EVENT

    La Trobe
    The Ideas and Society Program

    Australia and China: A Conversation with Paul Keating
    Date: Wednesday, October 12, 2022
    Time: 5:00 PM Australian Eastern Daylight Time (Victoria)
    Duration: 1 hour, 30 minutes

    La Trobe University’s Ideas and Society Program is extremely pleased to be able to invite you to an online discussion between former Prime Minister, Paul Keating, and James Curran, a Professor of History at the University of Sydney and author of Australia’s China Odyssey, on a question fundamental to the future of Australia–our relations with China and, thus, the United States.

    Registration required:
    https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3559056/CB2A0E51F7D063391097A7BA92DC2233

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