We’re now five weeks without a Newspoll, which is unfortunate from my perspective as it’s time for a new post and I’ve been too busy working on my Victorian election guide (which should be up later this week) to have put much thought into how one might look. There’s always the regular Roy Morgan two-party figures from its weekly update video, which have lately found it moving to the rest of the pack by recording growth in Labor’s leads, the latest result putting it at 55-45 after a 54.5-45.5 result the previous week.
Elsewhere:
• Shaun Ratcliff at YouGov offers findings from its Australian Cooperative Election Survey, conducted during the May election campaign, that appear to suggest the age effect for the Coalition primary vote doesn’t amount to much up to the age of about 40, but accelerates dramatically thereafter. The implication that support for the Coalition is heavily concentrated among the very oldest voters would not appear to bode well for them in the short to medium term.
• Antony Green and Adrian Beaumont at The Conversation both sound off against Victoria’s retention of group voting tickets for the Legislative Council, making the state the last bastion of preference harvesting following recent reforms in Western Australia.
• The turnout for the recent state by-election for North West Central in Western Australia, which has the state’s second highest indigenous population share, came in at just 47.7%, or 5335 out of an enrolment of 11,189. The Nationals have blamed the Western Australian Electoral Commission for insufficient advertising. Merome Beard of the Nationals won the seat with 3071 votes after preferences (60.5%) to 2008 for Liberal candidate Kim Baston (39.5%).
• Rod Culleton, who ran at the May election as the lead Senate candidate of the Great Australian Party in Western Australia, has been charged with providing false information on his nomination form. This included a declaration that he was not an undischarged bankrupt when the National Personal Insolvency Index identified him as such, although Culleton insists this was not the case. Culleton was elected as a One Nation Senator in Western Australia in 2016 but subsequently disqualified after being declared bankrupt by the Federal Court.
A-E
Thank you.
The yanks sell them to us, and we can’t on sell them without consent. So if we don’t want them they go back.
The M1’s have top secret composite armour, and the boxers are brand new and German. So we won’t give those, they are mega bucks expensive.
It’s a very standard in military contracts that you’re only selling to one party. and you are consulted about on sales. It’s so you don’t find a bunch of US tanks in enemy hands etc
AE
Most countries that sell advanced weapons have rules on who they can be resold to.
Back in the Vietnam War the Swedes insisted the Australian army not take its Carl Gustav AT weapons with them to Vietnam because they opposed the war.
This is another reason why it is preferable we build our own ships and subs rather than buy “off the shelf” if we can ever find the shelf.
PBers
Did you know that NATO launched more than 10,000 air raids on Libya in 2011 with over 500,000 Civilian Casualities. When they were questioned about civilian Casualities they insisted that it was collateral damages and that it happens in wars.
Doesn’t NATO membership consist of Liberal democracies as some one mentioned in the evening?
Ven says:
Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 9:09 pm
Did you know that NATO launched more than 10,000 air raids on Libya in 2011 with over 500,000 Civilian Casualities.
___________
This needs to be fact checked.
Macarthur says:
Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 6:26 pm
WWP @ 6:21pm, what exactly do you think is wrong with us sending our troops to a country which both needs and deserves all the help it can get?
———————————————————————————————
Given the scenario at this point in time, I would suggest that Ukraine has the most experienced and successful troops, in terms of conventional warfare at the very least, in the world. I suspect there is more they can teach us than we can teach them. I’d just keep giving them ammunition and weapons.
Ven
Sorry that is just nonsense. The highest casualty figure I have seen for the whole First Libyan Civil War then (ground fighting included) is 25,000 and that includes wounded.
Cronus,
Ukraine is motivated to do their own fighting, they just want the tools and training to do it.
This is what the yanks were hoping for in AStan. Sadly the ANA folded faster than superman on laundry day.
I wish I could sell land to Ven, anything, timeshare, watches… something.
@Upnorth,
I see Dr M already playing a savvy game:
https://www.todayonline.com/world/malaysias-mahathir-fears-najib-would-walk-free-if-graft-tainted-party-wins-polls-2016576?cid=braze-tdy_Today-Evening-Brief_newsletter_11102022_tdy
Alposays:
Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 7:52 pm
It’s hardly surprising when you no longer have the eastern European kids coming over.
”
nathsays:
Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 9:10 pm
Ven says:
Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 9:09 pm
Did you know that NATO launched more than 10,000 air raids on Libya in 2011 with over 500,000 Civilian Casualities.
___________
This needs to be fact checked.
”
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_military_intervention_in_Libya
We can probably give another 50 bushmasters or so but it would mean stripping the RAAF of the ones they are using for airfield protection. We can always make some more at Bendigo.
Aaron newtonsays:
Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 8:25 pm
When the econmy was going bad under morrison the right wing media saidit was all international factors nothing to do with morrison now that labor is in power evry thing is albaneses fault even the energy rises and interest rates.
_____________________
Forget the media.
According to Chalmers himself it was all down to govt mis-management and nothing to do with global factors whatsoever.
Now all of a sudden, he won’t shut up talking about global factors.
Same old, same old and don’t let anyone ever tell you any different.
”
nathsays:
Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 9:15 pm
I wish I could sell land to Ven, anything, timeshare, watches… something.
”
I am ready to buy that bridge across Sydney CBD and North Sydney from you. 🙂
Hi Douglas and Milko, if you are our there,
You know a bit about solar radiation scattering by and absorption in the atmosphere, right? 🙂
A colleague floated an interesting proposal to me today, which prompted some technical questions that you might be able to guide us on. It could do with an offline chat some time. If you are interested, just ask William to share my email address (or email me if you already who I am).
Steve777 says:
Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 8:46 pm
Queensland has a higher proportion of its population outside of its capital city than NSW or Victoria. Meanwhile, WA and SA are basically the capital city plus a big back yard.
Summary: Queensland has a higher proportion of regional voters.
———————————————————————————————
So I asked myself the question, “if Dutton wasn’t leader of the Opposition, would QLD’s support for the Coalition drop”? I don’t think so, I don’t think it’s related to Dutton being a QLDer. I think QLDers would vote for the federal Coalition if it was being led by a Tasmanian sock puppet. As it is, we already support a sock puppet.
Definition of casualty
https://www.awm.gov.au/articles/encyclopedia/definitions/casualties#:~:text=In%20its%20military%20sense%2C%20the,casualty%20is%20a%20broader%20category.
In its military sense, the term “casualty” includes all those who are killed in action or who die of wounds, as well as those who are wounded, listed as missing, or taken prisoner of war. Casualties are often wrongly confused with deaths, but in fact, as this definition suggests, casualty is a broader category.
Christ, this forum attracts some stupid people.
WB, there are a lot of things that you could blame on Christ or his followers, but I don’t think that’s one of them.
”
Socratessays:
Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 9:13 pm
Ven
Sorry that is just nonsense. The highest casualty figure I have seen for the whole First Libyan Civil War then (ground fighting included) is 25,000 and that includes wounded.
”
Isn’t it possible that deaths and people wounded ( even a small wound) in air-raids can be high when there were over 9000 raids? I am no expert. Can people like Cronus provide some insight into it?
There is no way in the world Dutton will rolled as leader before the next election, unless he chooses to stand down. The Queensland LNP, who have been punching above their weight at every federal election since 2010, finally have their man as leader and they won’t give him up easily.
Ven
Most of the air raids were over Benghazi and a little over Tripoli. Benghazi only has a population of 3/4 of a million. Impossible.
As the war in Ukraine is sadly proving, the majority of casualties in a major war are killed by the artillery, not air strikes. There were none of those months long attrition battles with artillery leveling cities in Libya. It was bad but an order of magnitude less than the Ukraine fighting and casualty levels.
The fact check exists
https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-617123650281
‘CLAIM: NATO killed tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of civilians during a 2011 military intervention in Libya.
AP’S ASSESSMENT: False. Estimates for how many civilians were killed during the NATO campaign in Libya vary, but experts told The Associated Press that figures placing civilian casualties in the tens of thousands are dramatically inflated. Nongovernmental organizations have also said that far fewer civilians were killed by the NATO airstrikes, with estimates ranging from 72 to 403.’
Cat at 11.40 am, 1.32 pm, 6.06 pm and 6.50 pm
Thanks for the Moir cartoon. A simple formula. Works with dunderheads all the time.
Warren Mundine has as much charisma as a stray dog. Jacinta Price has little more.
It was never likely that Senator Thorpe would advocate for No, as distinct from taking time to make that crystal clear (we’re still in the warm up phase, before the siren).
If you study the technicalities, you would know that the official No case will be written by the parliamentarians (or some of them) who vote against the legislation enabling the Voice referendum. Thorpe was never going to line up with Hanson. The recent slagging off of Senator Faruqi by Hanson made that rather obvious.
The main uncertainty remains about Dutton. His track record strongly suggests he will advocate for No, and he made hints about that a few weeks back. But the likely politics makes that a risky choice for him. If he goes No and Yes wins, he’s history.
It seems that the referendum will not occur until late spring or early summer 2023. The symbolism of voting again on 27 May (anniversary of the 1967 referendum) will be lost. Perhaps the main sensible argument against that date is that it would be too close to the May budget, meaning not enough sustained media coverage.
Coincidentally, there are no state or territory elections scheduled for later in 2023. There is no shortage of useful celebrities who could assist a Yes case, but what is also needed, taking advantage of the delayed date, is an effective public education campaign about what occurred before, during and after the 1967 referendum.
Without Dutton, the No campaign will be leaderless, and will rely on ignorance and fear. The ignorance concerns Australian history. With less ignorance, fear dwindles.
”
zoomstersays:
Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 9:45 pm
The fact check exists
https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-617123650281
‘CLAIM: NATO killed tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of civilians during a 2011 military intervention in Libya.
AP’S ASSESSMENT: False. Estimates for how many civilians were killed during the NATO campaign in Libya vary, but experts told The Associated Press that figures placing civilian casualties in the tens of thousands are dramatically inflated. Nongovernmental organizations have also said that far fewer civilians were killed by the NATO airstrikes, with estimates ranging from 72 to 403.’
”
OK. But I posted about casualties, which includes deaths and wounded people. (Look at Australian definition of casualties I posted.) and you posted only about deaths.
Dr D
“ Without Dutton, the No campaign will be leaderless, and will rely on ignorance and fear. The ignorance concerns Australian history. With less ignorance, fear dwindles”
I agree. With Dutton the No campaign will be gormless, and will rely on ignorance and fear…
So Chandra has quit her position with the Victorian Branch of the Liberal Party
Yet another departure leaving Guy and his two mates to do as they wish
Lobster with the mobster does not rank
Then there is Mirabella and his ego
The Victorian Division of the Liberal Party needs a WA style defeat to clear out the rubbish
Cormack is continuing to say their focus is on the repair of their Balance Sheet after the financially bruising Court case
Ven
When people edit rubbish into wikipeda they should try and make it consistant:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_First_Libyan_Civil_War
I suggest you look at the edit history before drinking the cool aid:
https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2011_military_intervention_in_Libya&action=history
zoomster at 9.45 pm
There are other reasons why the 2011 NATO intervention was a disaster. Look at the results in Libya, clearly no better than under Gaddafi. The results reduced support for the Responsibility to Protect doctrine. It never really recovered from the Libyan case.
One set of criteria for assessing that intervention and other wars is the old Christian tradition known as just war theory. There is a summary at:
https://ethics.org.au/ethics-explainer-just-war/
The key point about that theory is that it’s not a cherry picking exercise. All of the criteria for a just war need to be met, not just some or even most of them.
Now, on NATO’s intervention in Libya, the lead advocate was President Sarkhozy. His principal reason, as discussed in US diplomatic files at the time (released by Wikileaks) was to boost his flagging domestic popularity. In other words Sarkhozy did exactly what is not permitted by that Christian theory, namely:
“This requires that war-time political leaders be solely motivated, at a personal level, by reasons that make a war just. For example, even if war is waged in defence of another innocent country, leaders cannot resort to war because it will assist their re-election campaign.” (from link above)
The key Security Council resolution on Libya, number 1973, authorised military action to protect civilians under attack from the Gaddafi regime, but it did not authorise regime change. The key article is number 4. See:
http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/Libya%20S%20RES%201973.pdf
Ven says:
Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 9:36 pm
”
Socratessays:
Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 9:13 pm
Ven
Sorry that is just nonsense. The highest casualty figure I have seen for the whole First Libyan Civil War then (ground fighting included) is 25,000 and that includes wounded.
Isn’t it possible that deaths and people wounded ( even a small wound) in air-raids can be high when there were over 9000 raids? I am no expert. Can people like Cronus provide some insight into it?
———————————————————————————————
Not much I can add I’m sorry except to say that PTSD which of course, to varying degrees, is highly prevalent and is subsequently (and increasingly) being added to ‘injury figures’ and includes both military and civilians (as it should). This was a concern I raised last night in relation to Ukraine. Where a nation/society is so broadly and extensively attacked these numbers will be very large and the real impacts enduring.
“ The yanks sell them to us, and we can’t on sell them without consent. So if we don’t want them they go back.
The M1’s have top secret composite armour, and the boxers are brand new and German. So we won’t give those, they are mega bucks expensive.
It’s a very standard in military contracts that you’re only selling to one party. and you are consulted about on sales. It’s so you don’t find a bunch of US tanks in enemy hands etc”
_______
1. So the yanks are busy providing the Ukrainians with a whole bunch of highly sophisticated kit, with lots of sekrit software, firmware and hardware, but last generation US tanks – which even the Egyptians build under licence are verboten for export? Seems odd.
Also, isn’t the risk of kit falling into enemy hands something of an acceptable operational hazard? Otherwise, most of the kit would never be actually used … because …
I’m not doubting ‘export controls’, but I would have thought these are easily overcome by agreement. Especially when both the US and Germany aren fully behind supplying the Ukrainians. Export controls are just agreements. These can be modified or overridden by consent. Surely.
Queensland is just a conservative state (like Victoria is now a left wing state). The State ALP does OK because it is also pretty conservative (even the Left faction) and the State LNP have been incompetent for most of the last 35 years.
Livibg in Queenslnd, there is definitely something in the air. It just seems to make sense to vote LNP federally.
Almost 200,000 outstanding “Robodebt” cases will be dumped and debts wiped, as the federal government tries to clear the final remnants of the highly criticised system.
Breaking ABC News
William Bowe says:
Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 9:33 pm
Christ, this forum attracts some stupid people.
中华人民共和国
Mea Culpa, Mea Culpa, Mea Maxima Culpa
”
frednksays:
Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 10:00 pm
Ven
When people edit rubbish into wikipeda they should try and make it consistant:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_First_Libyan_Civil_War
I suggest you look at the edit history before drinking the cool aid:
https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2011_military_intervention_in_Libya&action=history
”
frednk
Again I repeat I was discussing about casualties not just deaths. Deaths are sub-set of Casualties.
Please read the definition of casualties I posted @9:32pm as per Australian war memorial.
Historyintime says:
Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 10:28 pm
Livibg in Queenslnd, there is definitely something in the air. It just seems to make sense to vote LNP federally.
中华人民共和国
Upnorth that’s usually Flying Foxes in Mango Season or out West near Mt Isa they get big flying cockroaches that smack you in the head when you have a BBQ.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/liberals-top-lawyer-quits-over-party-s-legally-risky-decisions-20221011-p5bowh.html
So if the wheels fall off your campaign and things keep getting worse, is it called a Kirkup? Or a Zac?
But seriously, the LNP in Victoria don’t want to run the risk of getting elected.
MABWM says:
Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 10:42 pm
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/liberals-top-lawyer-quits-over-party-s-legally-risky-decisions-20221011-p5bowh.html
So if the wheels fall off your campaign and things keep getting worse, is it called a Kirkup? Or a Zac?
But seriously, the LNP in Victoria don’t want to run the risk of getting elected.
中华人民共和国
LOL Taylormade
“Upnorth that’s usually Flying Foxes in Mango Season or out West near Mt Isa they get big flying cockroaches that smack you in the head when you have a BBQ.”
Don’t underestimate a squadron of SEQ’s fiercest rhinoceros beetles!
(And feck me the bats are loud tonight!)
Dandy Murray-Honeydew says:
Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 10:49 pm
“Upnorth that’s usually Flying Foxes in Mango Season or out West near Mt Isa they get big flying cockroaches that smack you in the head when you have a BBQ.”
Don’t underestimate a squadron of SEQ’s fiercest rhinoceros beetles!
(And feck me the bats are loud tonight!)
中华人民共和国
True cobber. True. Just before the wet the Stink Bugs Upnorth also pose a problem. Geez no wonder people think we are strange.
I think everywhere else begins to look left-wing when you live in Queensland for any length of time. Kinda lhow Floridians see Massachusetts or New York!
What a shit show
—-
Paul Sakkal
The Liberal Party’s in-house lawyer has quit, alleging the party’s top officials have ignored advice that some of its campaigning might break the law
VEC now probing Liberal mailouts of postal vote applications, which are prohibited
theage.com.au/politics/victo… @theage #springst
Hi Dandy M H,
I would definitely be interested. “Radiative Transfer” is definitely my thing. I am stringer with the mechanisms common at radio and far-IR wavelengths, but can do a lot of general stuff at optical and other wavelengths.
William, please send Dandy me email, a vice-versa.
And, William, thanks as ever for your generous help in keeping us all in contact.
Hahahahahaha. She was never a democrat. A Russian asset for years.
She never fooled me.
——
Tulsi Gubbard
I can no longer remain in today’s Democratic Party that is now under the complete control of an elitist cabal of warmongers driven by cowardly wokeness, who divide us by racializing every issue & stoke anti-white racism, actively work to undermine our God-given freedoms, are…
hostile to people of faith & spirituality, demonize the police & protect criminals at the expense of law-abiding Americans, believe in open borders, weaponize the national security state to go after political opponents, and above all, dragging us ever closer to nuclear war.
There should be something akin to Godwin’s Law for “woke”. Like “complain about wokeness and you lose the argument”. The anti-woke whinging is as tiresome as it is ethically dubious.
Can we call it “Dutton’s Law”?
It will now be well into tomorrow in the east. I hope you are still there.
Cookers have claimed that toxins deliberately inserted into mRNA COVID vaccine by the Deep State have bee programmed to activate on the 10th of October. All us sheep who lined up to be vaccinated will drop dead today. Once we are all out of the way the Cookers will rule the world.
https://twitter.com/MikeCarlton01/status/1579213894333403136?cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjcw%3D%3D&refsrc=email
Cronus says:
Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 8:31 pm
Ven
“ Cronus
What I don’t understand is why are voters in general in QLD and Dickson in particular don’t see what other voters in country see about Dutton?
Baffling to put it mildly. If not for 38% in QLD, LNP vote will be in early 20s or even less than 20%. LNP has 21 seats in parliament from QLD. Liberal leader is from QLD. Nationals leader is from QLD.”
———————————————————————————————
Ven
I truly am bewildered (as a QLDer). Sure, this is an old white conservative state but really not that different I wouldn’t imagine from say WA or SA so that’s not an excuse. We happily manage to elect ALP state governments a significant amount of the time so no excuse there. We have a regular inflow of interstate immigrants which along with raising the IQ levels must have other positive impacts though I suppose many are older folks and of course we know they have tendencies towards voting Liberal. We are still quite homogenous relative to NSW and VIC so that may be a little detrimental but I wouldn’t imagine the socio-economic differences are significant either.
There is a reticence towards change outside the south-east corner so I think that may be an issue but I’m not sure just how different that is or why in comparison to other states. Although not extensive these elements together cover a broad range of issues but clearly none are so obvious as to explain QLD’s federal voting habits. It’s an absolute mystery to me but on the issue of Dutton in my electorate I would go further, I consider us culpable. We really enjoy the kindness and apparent decency and intelligence of our neighbours but as a group they are unquestionably Coalition voters. I doubt they could explain their reasoning to us though imo, they could be considered as insufficiently inquisitive politically and liable to unquestioningly believe long held Coalition myths.
____________
Towards the bottom of this page…
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/latest-release
…there is a download titled “Population by age and sex – national” – table 6 of which suggests the percentage of Qlders in older age brackets is very close to the national average, so I don’t think we can put it down to age.
An ongoing conundrum…
Granny Anny says:
Wednesday, October 12, 2022 at 1:12 am
It will now be well into tomorrow in the east. I hope you are still there.
Cookers have claimed that toxins deliberately inserted into mRNA COVID vaccine by the Deep State have bee programmed to activate on the 10th of October. All us sheep who lined up to be vaccinated will drop dead today. Once we are all out of the way the Cookers will rule the world.
中华人民共和国
Well I’m still kicking Granny Anny but hey I’m an hour behind the Cave. Had 4 shots of MRNA so if them Kookbabblers are right I’m buggered.
Though I caught the lurgy from Mrs Upnorth in June and was only crook for a couple of days so I reckon them cookers are cooked.