Resolve Strategic: Labor 39, Coalition 32, Greens 10 (open thread)

A dent to Labor’s still commanding lead from Resolve Strategic, as it and Essential Research disagree on the trajectory of Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings.

The Age/Herald has published the second of what hopefully looks like being a regular monthly federal polling series, showing Labor down three points on the primary vote 39%, the Coalition up four to 32%, the Greens down two to 10%, One Nation up one to 6% and the United Australia Party steady on 2%. Based on preferences from the May election, this suggests a Labor two-party lead of 57-43, in from 61-39 last time. Anthony Albanese’s combined good plus very good rating is down one to 60% and his poor plus very poor rating is up two to 24%. Peter Dutton is respectively down two to 28% and up three to 40%, and his deficit on preferred prime minister has narrowed from 55-17 to 53-19.

The poll also finds 54-46 support for retaining the monarchy over becoming a republic in the event of a referendum, reversing a result from January. The late Queen’s “time as Australia’s head of state” was rated as good by 75% and poor by 5%, while David Hurley’s tenure as Governor-General was rated good by 30% and poor by 13%, with the remainder unsure or neutral. Forty-five per cent expect that King Charles III will perform well compared with 14% for badly. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1607.

Also out yesterday was the regular fortnightly release from Essential Research, which features the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, though still nothing on voting intention. Its new method for gauging leadership invites respondents introduced last month is to rate the leaders on a scale from zero to ten, categorising scores of seven to ten as positive, zero to three as negative and four to six as neutral. Contra Resolve Strategic, this has Albanese’s positive rating up three to 46%, his negative rating down six to 17% and his neutral rating up three to 31%. Dutton’s is down three on positive to 23%, steady on negative at 34% and up four on negative to 34%.

The poll also gauged support for a republic, and its specification of an “Australian head of state” elicited a more positive response than for Resolve Strategic or Roy Morgan, with support at 43% and opposition at 37%, although this is the narrowest result from the pollster out of seven going back to January 2017, with support down one since June and opposition up three. When asked if King Charles III should be Australia’s head of state, the sample came down exactly 50-50. The late Queen posthumously records a positive rating of 71% and a negative rating of 8% and Prince William comes in at 64% and 10%, but the King’s ratings of 44% and 21% are only slightly better than those of Prince Harry at 42% and 22%. The September 22 public holiday has the support of 61%, but 48% consider the media coverage excessive, compared with 42% for about right and 10% for insufficient. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1075.

The weekly Roy Morgan federal voting intention result, as related in threadbare form in its weekly update videos, gives Labor a lead of 54.5-45.5, out from 53.5-46.5 and the pollster’s strongest result for Labor since the election.

Finally, some resolution to recent by-election coverage:

• Saturday’s by-election for the Western Australian state seat of North West Central produced a comfortable win for Nationals candidate Merome Beard in the absence of a candidate from Labor, who polled 40.2% in the March 2021 landslide and fell 1.7% short after preferences. Beard leads Liberal candidate Will Baston with a 9.7% margin on the two-candidate preferred count, although the Nationals primary vote was scarcely changed despite the absence of Labor, while the Liberals were up from an abysmal 7.9% to 26.7%. The by-elections other remarkable feature was turnout – low in this electorate at the best of times, it currently stands at 42.2% of the enrolment with a mere 4490 formal votes cast, down from 73.8% and 7741 formal votes in 2021, with likely only a few hundred postals yet to come. Results have not been updated since Sunday, but continue to be tracked on my results page.

• A provisional distribution of preferences recorded Labor candidate Luke Edmunds winning the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke by a margin of 13.3%, out from 8.7% when the electorate last went to polls in May 2019. Labor’s primary vote was down from 45.2% to 39.5% in the face of competition from the Greens, who polled a solid 19.3% after declining to contest last time, while the Liberals were up to 28.8% from 25.3% last time, when a conservative independent polled 18.4%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,935 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 39, Coalition 32, Greens 10 (open thread)”

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  2. From BK’s roundup. (Thank you BK.)

    What’s the new prime minister discovered about Australia’s place in the world in his first four months? Australia’s opinions matter much more than most of us realise, he says.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/what-s-our-globetrotting-pm-learnt-about-australia-s-place-in-the-world-20220922-p5bk8p.html

    Peter Hartcher writes:

    [Albanese] gives an example of the warm climate that welcomed the return of the Aussie prodigal son.

    The example (climate change) isn’t relevant to this thought, which is that we’ve been missed. We’re known, mostly harmless, usually out to make friends, and now we’re back. Anticipation is high. But I am reminded of an opinion expressed here some years ago, that while Australia is regarded fondly, it’s because we’re “an easy root”. So, there is a great opportunity to be had on reentering the ballroom and drawing its eyes. But we should also take some care.

  3. BKsays:
    Saturday, September 24, 2022 at 2:47 pm
    Any survivors found amongst the wreckage ?
    _______
    Quite a few dropped and wrong notes.
    —————————-
    Sydney players quarter time?
    And head to head betting now Swans $11

  4. Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol and hello Bludgers.

    Just 24 hrs to the Italian election with a Coalition of the two major right wing parties (Fratelli Italia lead my Meloni and Leaga De Nord lead by Salvini) apparently at unbackable odds to win with Meloni to be the first female PM. Both leaders seem to have a nasty and angry edge to them in this campaign compared to the Left’s leaders (our impressions only).

    Both individuals are struggling to hide their hard right wing credentials and Meloni is still wildly (she yells a lot) campaigning under the flame insignia used by Mussolini while campaigning against Europe, abortion and the LGBTQI community. How Italy is accomplishing the cognitive dissonance between being happily led Draghi (whom Italians still adore) and now shortly by Meloni is quite beyond me I’m afraid. There seems to also be a strong anti-immigrant feeling in the nation (due to unemployment I suspect) which may prove problematic in the future given the extremely low birth rate here.

    I can only confirm much of what Adrian Beaumont has written in his blogs, all appears to be a fait accompli at this point.

  6. Apparently “one of the world’s leading voices against lockdowns” doesn’t like the Andrews government. Who would have thought?

    Melbourne ground zero for lockdown harms, says health expert

    One of the world’s leading voices against lockdowns during the COVID-19 crisis has declared Melbourne ground zero for understanding the social harms caused by protracted absences from school, economic disruptions and forced isolation of older people.

    Dr Jay Bhattacharya, a Stanford University health policy expert and a co-author of the Great Barrington Declaration, an open letter which challenged the ethics and efficacy of lockdowns, says policymakers must do more to mitigate the likely, long-term impacts of Melbourne’s unique pandemic experience.

    By Chip Le Grand
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/melbourne-ground-zero-for-lockdown-harms-says-health-expert-20220922-p5bkcc.html

  7. I have nothing against either AFL finalist but I think there is a clear favorite. With the Geelong team bus having found the ground I think Sydney’s best chance has passed. It should be a good game though as both teams play positive football.

  14. nathsays:
    Saturday, September 24, 2022 at 3:18 pm
    At least Collingwood would have put up a fight.
    ———————————
    Especially in Richmond pubs after the match.

  15. Geelong are impressive.

    The pre-match entertainment and the national anthem were collectively an embarassment.

    Half time now. Let’s see what quality ‘entertainment’ the AFL can deliver.

  18. A friend from Sydney who is a Swans tragic is at the MCG. She will stay for the final siren. Her partner has given up amd is back at the hotel packing for the long drive home.

  25. Rex Douglassays:
    Saturday, September 24, 2022 at 3:52 pm
    Halftime entertainment rocking !
    ———————————-
    Doesn’t rate with memories of attending a Rolling Stones concert at the G!

  33. Steve777 says:
    Saturday, September 24, 2022 at 6:49 am
    “The latest UK tax cuts once again demonstrate how the Right don’t care about debt and deficit so long as it benefits people and causes they like.”

    I agree it seems typical of and an indictment of Right leaning politics to undermine and oppress the majority of voters to enhance their minority mostly wealthy supporters. Of course, so many uninformed continue to vote against their best interests because they vote as though political parties are football teams rather than understanding what is truly best for their nations. I’m not sure this will ever change.

  34. UpNorth

    Sad to hear about Cowboy’s unfortunate loss yesterday but still, it was a huge improvement on last year and bodes well for next year.

  43. This is bad for the Swans.

    Literally all over.

    My friend has given up in disgust and is heading back to the hotel then driving back to Sydney

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